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THE MORNING RANT: A Reminder that the Purpose of Election Prediction Markets Isn’t to Gauge Voter Sentiment but to Influence It
Early voting is under way for the mid-term elections, and Election Day itself is just eight days away. So today is a good day to remind everyone that as biased and unscientific as modern polling is, prediction markets are just as flawed in assessing political races. The reason is that they are not “prediction” markets at all. While they are sort of a gambling forum, they are also a mechanism for partisans to use their own money to influence election reporting in favor of their candidates, and Democrats are much more passionate about spending money this way than Republicans are.
In a piece back in May, I documented two Georgia Supreme Court races in which Polymarket showed the leftists’ odds of winning both exceeded 80%. Both candidates lost by crushing margins to the conservative candidates. There is currently a flood of stories out now touting “predictions” from Polymarket or Kalshi that are favorable to Democrats and the left, including James Talarico in Texas. Kalshi is stating as a fact that Talarico has a 65% chance to win, approaching a “new all time high.”BREAKING: James Talarico odds to win Texas Senate approach new all-time high 65% chance he wins. https://t.co/Y5eo9duhoz
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 23, 2026
@jsolomonReports Interesting, but I’d argue that with political races, prediction markets aren’t fueled by investors, but by partisans who see their stake as a campaign contribution to fuel a desired outcome. They’re not predicting the outcome, they’re trying to influence it, like push polls do.
— Buck Throckmorton (@BuckThrockmort) October 14, 2026
Comments
(Jump to bottom of comments)1
Morning
Posted by: Ann at October 26, 2026 11:01 AM (SHHm+)
2
Nooded.
Posted by: Nazdar at October 26, 2026 11:01 AM (NcvvS)
3
I will call the others
Posted by: Ann at October 26, 2026 11:01 AM (SHHm+)
4
No boobs?
Posted by: Commissar of plenty and festive little hats at October 26, 2026 11:02 AM (iZb96)
5
People putting money on Talarico are neither gamblers nor investors – they are engaging in a modern form of campaign contributions.
That's an excellent insight.
That's an excellent insight.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:02 AM (Riz8t)
6
SPONGE!!!
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 26, 2026 11:02 AM (bFu5X)
7
A Reminder that the Purpose of Election Prediction Markets Isn’t to Gauge Voter Sentiment but to make money off of people stupid enough to bet"
There, FIFY
There, FIFY
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:03 AM (pfXMo)
8
Agree with you about Solomon. He's done some excellent work exposing the left's corruption but when it comes to elections Kalshi is nothing more than an influence campaign. Put money into ads or put it into the betting markets to shape the odds and perception.
Early OT, Brazil's stock market was halted when the market dropped by 15% at the start of trading. Rigged elections have consequences.
Early OT, Brazil's stock market was halted when the market dropped by 15% at the start of trading. Rigged elections have consequences.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:03 AM (viF8m)
9
Several major examples of betting markets getting things massively wrong just this year.
It's all just a con on dumb Europeans.
70% of Kalshi's bettors are European. Think they understand TX politics?
It's all just a con on dumb Europeans.
70% of Kalshi's bettors are European. Think they understand TX politics?
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:03 AM (AutN8)
10
Comparing political polls to political prediction markets is an interesting exercise, and John Solomon of “Just the News” has announced a partnership with Kalshi to do just that.
Interesting that our "professional" media never thought to do this. More likely, they considered it, then decided it wouldn't help their side.
Interesting that our "professional" media never thought to do this. More likely, they considered it, then decided it wouldn't help their side.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:03 AM (Riz8t)
11
I agree that the prediction markets are trying to influence.
When did betting on elections become a thing?
When did betting on elections become a thing?
Posted by: Ann at October 26, 2026 11:04 AM (SHHm+)
12
They NEVER backtest and so there are never consequences for totally inaccurate predictions.
Nate Silver should have as much credibility as Jim Cramer.
Nate Silver should have as much credibility as Jim Cramer.
Posted by: San Franpsycho at October 26, 2026 11:04 AM (RIvkX)
13
Brilliant! Thank you.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:04 AM (2ap+5)
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:04 AM (pfXMo)
15
Voted straight R Saturday morning. Took longer to get my ballot than it did to finish it.
And they weren't slow getting it to me.
And they weren't slow getting it to me.
Posted by: rickb223 at October 26, 2026 11:04 AM (bar5X)
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:04 AM (ndZc7)
17
Interesting that our "professional" media never thought to do this. More likely, they considered it, then decided it wouldn't help their side.
I don't mean to imply that Solomon isn't a professional, he is, just that he's not one of the bigs who have huge resources compared to him.
I don't mean to imply that Solomon isn't a professional, he is, just that he's not one of the bigs who have huge resources compared to him.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:04 AM (Riz8t)
18
I think Kalshi bases the 65% statement on how its customers are buying.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:05 AM (Ti9vn)
19
So putting down on Paxton winning could be fun? What is the payoff if I am right?
Posted by: Lurking Cheshirecat at October 26, 2026 11:06 AM (w3u3d)
20
"I’m excited to announce we have a partnership with Kalshi to examine who is better at predicting elections: pollsters or investors...."
====
Yeah, no. Not investors. Gamblers. Speculators. Psychics.
====
Yeah, no. Not investors. Gamblers. Speculators. Psychics.
Posted by: San Franpsycho at October 26, 2026 11:06 AM (RIvkX)
21
Would we treat betting odds at a horse race track as predictive of the results of the race?
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:06 AM (AutN8)
22
How about Brazil?
Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (Cqx++)
23
I have a bad feeling that a lot of these “no chance in hell” candidates end up winning.
Posted by: Maroon at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (VQIky)
24
19 So putting down on Paxton winning could be fun? What is the payoff if I am right?
Posted by: Lurking Cheshirecat at October 26, 2026 11:06 AM (w3u3d)
=====
They're selling dollars for 40 cents.
Posted by: Lurking Cheshirecat at October 26, 2026 11:06 AM (w3u3d)
=====
They're selling dollars for 40 cents.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (AutN8)
25
lol.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (Y/06r)
26
The media's squarely aligned with the left, and has figured out that they still have influence over what people think when they champion policies the left prefers and talk up bogus polls designed to push a narrative.
Not to count actual voters and their likely pick.
Not to count actual voters and their likely pick.
Posted by: Martini Farmer at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (RORbl)
27
5 People putting money on Talarico are neither gamblers nor investors – they are engaging in a modern form of campaign contributions.
That's an excellent insight.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:02 AM (Riz8t)
So is polling.
That's an excellent insight.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:02 AM (Riz8t)
So is polling.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (Y/06r)
28
I figured "the Purpose of Election Prediction Markets" was to make money for the guys running the markets. Don't they charge a rake on the bets?
Posted by: gp at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (Jr5Lq)
29
I live in a very red part of Texas, and Talafreako worries me. Yes, I’m gloomy by nature.
Please talk me down off the ledge.
Please talk me down off the ledge.
Posted by: Kam Fong as Chin Ho at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (iE+pk)
30
They're selling dollars for 40 cents.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (AutN
=======
Jerry and Marge Go Large
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (AutN
=======
Jerry and Marge Go Large
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (2ap+5)
31
23 I have a bad feeling that a lot of these “no chance in hell” candidates end up winning.
Posted by: Maroon at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (VQIky)
Well, right now according to the "polls" that would be the Republicans so.... Okay
Posted by: Maroon at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (VQIky)
Well, right now according to the "polls" that would be the Republicans so.... Okay
Posted by: It's me donna at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (+gK6I)
32
How about Brazil?
Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr
Maybe we should Captain Democracy Jimmy Car...
Forget it.
Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr
Maybe we should Captain Democracy Jimmy Car...
Forget it.
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (r2Icn)
33
23 I have a bad feeling that a lot of these “no chance in hell” candidates end up winning.
Posted by: Maroon at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (VQIky)
============
Exactly one time this century, a state has gone from a president winning a state by over 10 points and the other party winning the senate race in the next midterm.
2006, Tester in Montana.
If Democrats take OH, TX, AK, IA, and KS, it'll happen 5 times...this year.
That's what Democrats are predicting with happen. That's what the polls are indicating. That's what is driving the betting markets.
Posted by: Maroon at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (VQIky)
============
Exactly one time this century, a state has gone from a president winning a state by over 10 points and the other party winning the senate race in the next midterm.
2006, Tester in Montana.
If Democrats take OH, TX, AK, IA, and KS, it'll happen 5 times...this year.
That's what Democrats are predicting with happen. That's what the polls are indicating. That's what is driving the betting markets.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:09 AM (AutN8)
34
>>Yeah, no. Not investors. Gamblers. Speculators. Psychics.
Let's say you are a large PAC or deep pocketed investor supporting Talarico. Do you put your money into ads or do you put a large bet on Kalshi that makes it appear the odds are favoring him?
That's what's happening with Kalshi when it comes to elections.
Let's say you are a large PAC or deep pocketed investor supporting Talarico. Do you put your money into ads or do you put a large bet on Kalshi that makes it appear the odds are favoring him?
That's what's happening with Kalshi when it comes to elections.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:09 AM (viF8m)
35
If you really want to play, there's a 10-bagger in it for you if the R's keep the House...
Posted by: StefanH at October 26, 2026 11:09 AM (K2flp)
36
@Kalshi
·
BREAKING: James Talarico odds to win Texas Senate approach new all-time high
65% chance he wins.
Yesterday it was 66.6% I guess people didn't buy it.
·
BREAKING: James Talarico odds to win Texas Senate approach new all-time high
65% chance he wins.
Yesterday it was 66.6% I guess people didn't buy it.
Posted by: t-bird at October 26, 2026 11:09 AM (x+6zT)
37
Going out to vote here in NC early this afternoon. Running out of coffee here, so this has become an emergency. Hope to vote out the odious Don Davis. Don't gamble, not even Bingo at the local firehouse.
Posted by: Born To Lose at October 26, 2026 11:09 AM (EdP2u)
38
29 I live in a very red part of Texas, and Talafreako worries me. Yes, I’m gloomy by nature.
Please talk me down off the ledge.
Posted by: Kam Fong as Chin Ho at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (iE+pk)
========
Black turnout in South Dallas is trash and the rurals are turning out and the state is Trump+14.
The recipe for a Democrat winning in Texas right now is sky-high black turnout and in the gutter exurban turnout. Neither of those things are happening.
Please talk me down off the ledge.
Posted by: Kam Fong as Chin Ho at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (iE+pk)
========
Black turnout in South Dallas is trash and the rurals are turning out and the state is Trump+14.
The recipe for a Democrat winning in Texas right now is sky-high black turnout and in the gutter exurban turnout. Neither of those things are happening.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:10 AM (AutN8)
39
A few million to have a ton of stupid news sources repeat over and over your lefty candidate is going to win....sure...small change.
And remember, when I create my fake polling firm with AI numbers going several elections back and then the current election numbers, my fictional numbers will....
1. Have GOP candidates comfortably ahead in historically red areas.
2. Have Dems way ahead in historically blue areas.
3. Have Dems tied or slightly leading in all other areas two weeks before election day.
4. The races all become too close to call in the two weeks before Election Day.
5. I leave out some outliers, things I just got completely wrong for legitimacy.
And profit!!
I'm pretty sure that's how it's done...
And remember, when I create my fake polling firm with AI numbers going several elections back and then the current election numbers, my fictional numbers will....
1. Have GOP candidates comfortably ahead in historically red areas.
2. Have Dems way ahead in historically blue areas.
3. Have Dems tied or slightly leading in all other areas two weeks before election day.
4. The races all become too close to call in the two weeks before Election Day.
5. I leave out some outliers, things I just got completely wrong for legitimacy.
And profit!!
I'm pretty sure that's how it's done...
Posted by: Stateless - Ralphy - 106 years old! Puppy at heart! at October 26, 2026 11:10 AM (Sco7b)
40
29 I live in a very red part of Texas, and Talafreako worries me. Yes, I’m gloomy by nature.
Please talk me down off the ledge.
Posted by: Kam Fong as Chin Ho at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (iE+pk)
Stop. Don't do it.
Please talk me down off the ledge.
Posted by: Kam Fong as Chin Ho at October 26, 2026 11:08 AM (iE+pk)
Stop. Don't do it.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at October 26, 2026 11:10 AM (Y/06r)
41
I hated McCornyn, but Paxton was a tough sale.
I think Ted Cruz only won by like two or three points last time? To a candidate that was openly saying he wanted to round up guns.
I would not be shocked if this trans freak Talarico pulls it off
Texas is weird
I think Ted Cruz only won by like two or three points last time? To a candidate that was openly saying he wanted to round up guns.
I would not be shocked if this trans freak Talarico pulls it off
Texas is weird
Posted by: Maroon at October 26, 2026 11:10 AM (VQIky)
42
I see the communists just openly stole the election in Brazil.
If they are willing, time to start arming the opposition there
If they are willing, time to start arming the opposition there
Posted by: 18-1 at October 26, 2026 11:10 AM (sKqQm)
43
The recipe for a Democrat winning in Texas right now is sky-high black turnout and in the gutter exurban turnout. Neither of those things are happening.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:10 AM (AutN
But Texans are all secretly gay and want to sleep with Talarico!
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:10 AM (AutN
But Texans are all secretly gay and want to sleep with Talarico!
Posted by: Aetius451AD at October 26, 2026 11:11 AM (Y/06r)
44
@Dave_in_Fla
Is his X handle.
He's dropping predictions and having some fun. He's a good read, some tasty nuggets abound.
Is his X handle.
He's dropping predictions and having some fun. He's a good read, some tasty nuggets abound.
Posted by: GigantorX at October 26, 2026 11:11 AM (2cIfM)
45
41 I hated McCornyn, but Paxton was a tough sale.
I think Ted Cruz only won by like two or three points last time? To a candidate that was openly saying he wanted to round up guns.
I would not be shocked if this trans freak Talarico pulls it off
Texas is weird
Posted by: Maroon at October 26, 2026 11:10 AM (VQIky)
=========
"Last time," Cruz won by 9. He won 2 years ago against black football star Allred.
In 2018, he won by 3. 2 years after Cruz did the unthinkable and said "vote your conscience" at the 2016 RNC, making him an enemy of MAGA.
I think Ted Cruz only won by like two or three points last time? To a candidate that was openly saying he wanted to round up guns.
I would not be shocked if this trans freak Talarico pulls it off
Texas is weird
Posted by: Maroon at October 26, 2026 11:10 AM (VQIky)
=========
"Last time," Cruz won by 9. He won 2 years ago against black football star Allred.
In 2018, he won by 3. 2 years after Cruz did the unthinkable and said "vote your conscience" at the 2016 RNC, making him an enemy of MAGA.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:11 AM (AutN8)
46
The only thing I'm confident about for the election is that the Cali GOP congressional delegation will be whittled down to 1 or 2 reps and that LA looks like it's going to jettison Bass for a marxist retard.
Other than that, it's all a crapshoot.
Other than that, it's all a crapshoot.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at October 26, 2026 11:12 AM (XV/Pl)
47
I was 20 years old when I found out Brazil Nuts were the proper name.
Posted by: Stepping On Toes at October 26, 2026 11:12 AM (EdP2u)
48
I figured "the Purpose of Election Prediction Markets" was to make money for the guys running the markets. Don't they charge a rake on the bets?"
Yep. They make bank on the vig, whether the bet is against the house (online betting) or against others (prediction market).
It's all clicks on phone screens, and the world is becoming stupider by the day.
The latest is "download this app and get free money just for playing games"
I just can't at times...
Yep. They make bank on the vig, whether the bet is against the house (online betting) or against others (prediction market).
It's all clicks on phone screens, and the world is becoming stupider by the day.
The latest is "download this app and get free money just for playing games"
I just can't at times...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:12 AM (pfXMo)
49
Betting markets have ruined the NFL and college football, and are now working on ruining elections.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (0U5gm)
50
Anyone who is convinced polls and betting markets are rigged in favor of Democrats has a golden opportunity make a ton of money. They’re selling dollars for 30 cents. Go scoop them up.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (N8AvH)
51
46 The only thing I'm confident about for the election is that the Cali GOP congressional delegation will be whittled down to 1 or 2 reps and that LA looks like it's going to jettison Bass for a marxist retard.
Other than that, it's all a crapshoot.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at October 26, 2026 11:12 AM (XV/Pl)
'for ANOTHER marxist retard' is more accurate.
Other than that, it's all a crapshoot.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at October 26, 2026 11:12 AM (XV/Pl)
'for ANOTHER marxist retard' is more accurate.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (Y/06r)
52
While they are sort of a gambling forum, they are also a mechanism for partisans to use their own money to influence election reporting in favor of their candidates, and Democrats are much more passionate about spending money this way than Republicans are.
Spend $60 million on television ads that everyone hates, or prepare to lose $5-$15 million in the Prediction "Investment" markets and have endless free TikTok videos, Instagram, algorithm drive Influencers and corporate Enemedia gushing about how the Left is so dominant.
Remarkably strong ROI.
Spend $60 million on television ads that everyone hates, or prepare to lose $5-$15 million in the Prediction "Investment" markets and have endless free TikTok videos, Instagram, algorithm drive Influencers and corporate Enemedia gushing about how the Left is so dominant.
Remarkably strong ROI.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (pawvM)
53
50 Anyone who is convinced polls and betting markets are rigged in favor of Democrats has a golden opportunity make a ton of money. They’re selling dollars for 30 cents. Go scoop them up.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (N8AvH)
=========
"Massie is going to win his primary."
-Baris, doing polls and betting that Massie loses his primary
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (N8AvH)
=========
"Massie is going to win his primary."
-Baris, doing polls and betting that Massie loses his primary
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (AutN8)
54
The only thing worrying me is the influx of blue state refugees into Texas. I don't know the split between Red,Blue or Independents of this influx though.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (Ti9vn)
55
The recipe for a Democrat winning in Texas right now is sky-high black turnout and in the gutter exurban turnout. Neither of those things are happening."
Hey, we're trying!
/Bush Family GOP in Harris County
Hey, we're trying!
/Bush Family GOP in Harris County
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:14 AM (pfXMo)
56
54 The only thing worrying me is the influx of blue state refugees into Texas. I don't know the split between Red,Blue or Independents of this influx though.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (Ti9vn)
=======
Surveys show that the in-migration to Texas is heavily Republican, and the election results that have followed since the heavy in-migration started in 2020 bear that out.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (Ti9vn)
=======
Surveys show that the in-migration to Texas is heavily Republican, and the election results that have followed since the heavy in-migration started in 2020 bear that out.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:14 AM (AutN8)
57
Off-topic and Willoed:
We saw "Clayface" yesterday.
It was a good fun time at the movies
BONUS! There was enough body horror to make it a good Halloween movie as well!
the best of the Comic book villain origin movies.
Check it out.
We saw "Clayface" yesterday.
It was a good fun time at the movies
BONUS! There was enough body horror to make it a good Halloween movie as well!
the best of the Comic book villain origin movies.
Check it out.
Posted by: naturalfake at October 26, 2026 11:14 AM (YSUhf)
58
@51
>>'for ANOTHER marxist retard' is more accurate.
I was going to say that, but Rathman is actually retarded, I think Bass is mostly an NPC Marxist.
>>'for ANOTHER marxist retard' is more accurate.
I was going to say that, but Rathman is actually retarded, I think Bass is mostly an NPC Marxist.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at October 26, 2026 11:15 AM (XV/Pl)
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:15 AM (ndZc7)
60
Betting markets have ruined the NFL and college football, and are now working on ruining elections."
"Betting markets" is actually a better description.
FWIW, I know a few recent (last half decade) emigrees from the Left Coast. They're more "right" than me!
"Betting markets" is actually a better description.
FWIW, I know a few recent (last half decade) emigrees from the Left Coast. They're more "right" than me!
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:16 AM (pfXMo)
61
49 Betting markets have ruined the NFL and college football, and are now working on ruining elections.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (0U5gm)
I remember being a teen (late 80s) the worry about authorizing a lottery in the southern indiana and Kentucky area. Gambling was seen as not a great thing.
You had the Pete Rose scandal. All of it. The idea that someone would bet on sports was seen as just wrong.
Now sports betting is so granular that they are betting on everything. Literally everything. 'When will the first point be scored?' 'How many points will so and so score?' 'How many times will Juggalo X commit a personal foul?'
I think the people back in the 80s and earlier were right: gambling is not good for people. You know, outside of war.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 26, 2026 11:13 AM (0U5gm)
I remember being a teen (late 80s) the worry about authorizing a lottery in the southern indiana and Kentucky area. Gambling was seen as not a great thing.
You had the Pete Rose scandal. All of it. The idea that someone would bet on sports was seen as just wrong.
Now sports betting is so granular that they are betting on everything. Literally everything. 'When will the first point be scored?' 'How many points will so and so score?' 'How many times will Juggalo X commit a personal foul?'
I think the people back in the 80s and earlier were right: gambling is not good for people. You know, outside of war.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at October 26, 2026 11:16 AM (Y/06r)
Posted by: Biden's Dog sniffs a whole lotta malarkey, at October 26, 2026 11:16 AM (lgmVC)
63
>>'for ANOTHER marxist retard' is more accurate.
I was going to say that, but Rathman is actually retarded, I think Bass is mostly an NPC Marxist.
Wait, you're suggesting Rathman is even stupider than Bass??? I find it hard to believe she could be and yet breathe and digest unassisted.
I was going to say that, but Rathman is actually retarded, I think Bass is mostly an NPC Marxist.
Wait, you're suggesting Rathman is even stupider than Bass??? I find it hard to believe she could be and yet breathe and digest unassisted.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:17 AM (Riz8t)
64
A great place to make money on Kalshi is find a deep blue or deep red senate race that has a challenger the other side is excited about in July or August. There will be some poll done showing the challenger is within 9% or something. And suddenly the challenger goes from 4% to 19%. If you buy at 4% and sell at 19%, it’s a a hell of a return even with the vig.
There’s always some version of this. Of course the end result is the usual 20+ point win. But it’s those micro surges where there opportunity to make nice returns from dumb people who bet with their hearts instead of their minds.
There’s always some version of this. Of course the end result is the usual 20+ point win. But it’s those micro surges where there opportunity to make nice returns from dumb people who bet with their hearts instead of their minds.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:17 AM (N8AvH)
65
Ain't no trolls like the trolls we got
Ain't no trolls like 'em
Ain't no trolls like the trolls we got
Ain't no trolls like 'em
_so many trolls it's difficult not step on one
Ain't no trolls like 'em
Ain't no trolls like the trolls we got
Ain't no trolls like 'em
_so many trolls it's difficult not step on one
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at October 26, 2026 11:17 AM (pMmVV)
66
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:14 AM (AutN
Blue state republicans can be questionable at times.
Blue state republicans can be questionable at times.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:17 AM (Ti9vn)
67
How about Brazil?
Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM
Where the nuts come from?
Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM
Where the nuts come from?
Posted by: Charlie at October 26, 2026 11:17 AM (bFu5X)
68
You had the Pete Rose scandal. All of it. The idea that someone would bet on sports was seen as just wrong."
This. Today? Totally different (well, that and less astroturf...)
This. Today? Totally different (well, that and less astroturf...)
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:18 AM (pfXMo)
69
I think Ted Cruz only won by like two or three points last time? To a candidate that was openly saying he wanted to round up guns.
Ted Cruz has a personality problem.
He also hates his job at Senator and only uses that role as a platform to bump his podcasting engagement and help him generate easy content by posting his sick burnz as a eunuch on whatever committees he serves.
Every time he has an opportunity to run for the presidency, he does.
Pro Tip: When a politician promises to "fight for you" understand that he/she is too lazy to actually come up with any meaningful ideas and thus defaults to the hackneyed clichés.
Ted Cruz has a personality problem.
He also hates his job at Senator and only uses that role as a platform to bump his podcasting engagement and help him generate easy content by posting his sick burnz as a eunuch on whatever committees he serves.
Every time he has an opportunity to run for the presidency, he does.
Pro Tip: When a politician promises to "fight for you" understand that he/she is too lazy to actually come up with any meaningful ideas and thus defaults to the hackneyed clichés.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:18 AM (pawvM)
70
Be interesting to see how Abdul wins Michigan without the black vote.
>>@DSA_Watch
·
1h
>>🚨 “Empowering Black Americans,” a group of THOUSANDS of Black Michigan Democrats, announces that it opposes Abdul El-Sayed.
>>@DSA_Watch
·
1h
>>🚨 “Empowering Black Americans,” a group of THOUSANDS of Black Michigan Democrats, announces that it opposes Abdul El-Sayed.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:18 AM (viF8m)
71
Fascinating! Good Morning Rant!
Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara are the co-founders of Kalshi, the first federally regulated U.S. exchange for trading real-world event outcomes.
Tarek Mansour (CEO) is an MIT graduate raised in Lebanon/Algeria, and Luana Lopes Lara (COO) is an MIT computer science graduate and former professional ballerina born in Brazil. They met as students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
They are reported to have bipartisan advisors, and Mansour and Lopes Lara have together donated about $1 million to a broad range of federal political campaigns and political action committees this election cycle.
Neither Tarek Mansour nor Luana Lopes Lara can vote in U.S. elections because neither of them holds U.S. citizenship.
So, those placing the bets are now pushing political agendas?! Don't like that one iota but see that Polymarket, PredictIt, and Robinhood allow traders to wager on the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections, too.
AI states, in part, "Ultimately, the platforms function with a high degree of co-calibration." (Keyrock as a reference.)
Huh. 🤔
Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara are the co-founders of Kalshi, the first federally regulated U.S. exchange for trading real-world event outcomes.
Tarek Mansour (CEO) is an MIT graduate raised in Lebanon/Algeria, and Luana Lopes Lara (COO) is an MIT computer science graduate and former professional ballerina born in Brazil. They met as students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
They are reported to have bipartisan advisors, and Mansour and Lopes Lara have together donated about $1 million to a broad range of federal political campaigns and political action committees this election cycle.
Neither Tarek Mansour nor Luana Lopes Lara can vote in U.S. elections because neither of them holds U.S. citizenship.
So, those placing the bets are now pushing political agendas?! Don't like that one iota but see that Polymarket, PredictIt, and Robinhood allow traders to wager on the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections, too.
AI states, in part, "Ultimately, the platforms function with a high degree of co-calibration." (Keyrock as a reference.)
Huh. 🤔
Posted by: L - No nic.... at October 26, 2026 11:18 AM (NFX2v)
72
But it’s those micro surges where there opportunity to make nice returns from dumb people who bet with their hearts instead of their minds."
Yep.
Yep.
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:19 AM (pfXMo)
73
I was going to say that, but Rathman is actually retarded, I think Bass is mostly an NPC Marxist.
----
Sorry, but I've never seen a photo of Bass that doesn't just scream out "God what a retarded creature!".
----
Sorry, but I've never seen a photo of Bass that doesn't just scream out "God what a retarded creature!".
Posted by: Crusader at October 26, 2026 11:19 AM (TN0g+)
74
The only close statewide race in TX in the last quarter century that I am aware of is Cruz vs. O'Rourke in 2018. Cruz was subjected to widespread criticism that he ran little or no campaign. He also has likability problems. He still won by 2.5 points. There was some palpable enthusiasm for O'Rourke on the other side. I've seen no evidence of that for Talarico, who recently spent two weeks in absentia. The question really ought to be flipped on its head: what's the evidence that Talarico, who cannot stop talking about LGBT+, is going to outperform O'Rourke 2018? Polls? That it? If you want to defend polls, despite their performance, go ahead. School us.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:19 AM (M60gE)
75
Did they poll this woman?
https://tinyurl.com/2u7pvhah
Say, I have an idea. If you don't like "his people" owning all the stores, restaurants, and gas stations, start your own. Or does that sound too much like work.
https://tinyurl.com/2u7pvhah
Say, I have an idea. If you don't like "his people" owning all the stores, restaurants, and gas stations, start your own. Or does that sound too much like work.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:19 AM (Riz8t)
76
'It's all clicks on phone screens, and the world is becoming stupider by the day. The latest is "download this app and get free money just for playing games"'
I recently read "Everybody Loses" by Danny Funt. Online betting (particularly sports) is a yuge industry now, bigger than video games and movies. The convenience of smartphone apps makes it so easy to click away your money whenever the impulse hits.
I recently read "Everybody Loses" by Danny Funt. Online betting (particularly sports) is a yuge industry now, bigger than video games and movies. The convenience of smartphone apps makes it so easy to click away your money whenever the impulse hits.
Posted by: gp at October 26, 2026 11:19 AM (Jr5Lq)
77
74 The only close statewide race in TX in the last quarter century that I am aware of is Cruz vs. O'Rourke in 2018. Cruz was subjected to widespread criticism that he ran little or no campaign. He also has likability problems. He still won by 2.5 points. There was some palpable enthusiasm for O'Rourke on the other side. I've seen no evidence of that for Talarico, who recently spent two weeks in absentia. The question really ought to be flipped on its head: what's the evidence that Talarico, who cannot stop talking about LGBT+, is going to outperform O'Rourke 2018? Polls? That it? If you want to defend polls, despite their performance, go ahead. School us.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:19 AM (M60gE)
=======
Yes, it's polls. Mostly summer polls.
Which everyone learned to dismiss completely because of Brat Summer.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:19 AM (M60gE)
=======
Yes, it's polls. Mostly summer polls.
Which everyone learned to dismiss completely because of Brat Summer.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:20 AM (AutN8)
78
Election Day itself is just eight days away
Counting the hours until the flood of spam texts stop.
Counting the hours until the flood of spam texts stop.
Posted by: Oddbob at October 26, 2026 11:20 AM (vTZFs)
79
Pro Tip: When a politician promises to "fight for you" understand that he/she is too lazy to actually come up with any meaningful ideas and thus defaults to the hackneyed clichés.
In my AO all the Dems run on a simple platform... "We hate Trump"
That's pretty much 90% of their ad dollars which is...interesting.
Now supposed for a moment you drink the leftist koolaide and Orangemanbad is causing problems at the federal level. How does a governor candidate running on hating Trump help you?
Pro Tip: When a politician promises to "fight for you" understand that he/she is too lazy to actually come up with any meaningful ideas and thus defaults to the hackneyed clichés.
In my AO all the Dems run on a simple platform... "We hate Trump"
That's pretty much 90% of their ad dollars which is...interesting.
Now supposed for a moment you drink the leftist koolaide and Orangemanbad is causing problems at the federal level. How does a governor candidate running on hating Trump help you?
Posted by: 18-1 at October 26, 2026 11:20 AM (sKqQm)
80
The officiating in both college and pro football this weekend was especially awful.
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 26, 2026 11:20 AM (r2Icn)
81
One great thing about soccer, there are very few ads about sports betting.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:21 AM (2ap+5)
82
I see the communists just openly stole the election in Brazil.
If they are willing, time to start arming the opposition there
People on X are openly calling for Lula and the corrupt supreme court to be Maduroed.
If they are willing, time to start arming the opposition there
People on X are openly calling for Lula and the corrupt supreme court to be Maduroed.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 26, 2026 11:21 AM (2ocoG)
83
Be interesting to see how Abdul wins Michigan without the black vote."
What's interesting is to see the Dims losing what may have historically been their bedrock in many areas. The "black vote" just isn't there anymore. Demographics can't be beat.
What's interesting is to see the Dims losing what may have historically been their bedrock in many areas. The "black vote" just isn't there anymore. Demographics can't be beat.
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:21 AM (pfXMo)
84
I remember being a teen (late 80s) the worry about authorizing a lottery in the southern indiana and Kentucky area. Gambling was seen as not a great thing.
IIRC, Texas sold the lottery by claiming that the State's rake would go to The Children™ by throwing more money at the teacher unions.
I remember being a teen (late 80s) the worry about authorizing a lottery in the southern indiana and Kentucky area. Gambling was seen as not a great thing.
IIRC, Texas sold the lottery by claiming that the State's rake would go to The Children™ by throwing more money at the teacher unions.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:21 AM (pawvM)
85
I was 20 years old when I found out Brazil Nuts were the proper name.
-----
What name were you aware of prior to that?
-----
What name were you aware of prior to that?
Posted by: Crusader at October 26, 2026 11:21 AM (TN0g+)
86
83 Be interesting to see how Abdul wins Michigan without the black vote."
What's interesting is to see the Dims losing what may have historically been their bedrock in many areas. The "black vote" just isn't there anymore. Demographics can't be beat.
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:21 AM (pfXMo)
=======
"But this is probably not going to happen in NC. Everyone loves Cooper. He didn't have a single controversy."
What's interesting is to see the Dims losing what may have historically been their bedrock in many areas. The "black vote" just isn't there anymore. Demographics can't be beat.
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:21 AM (pfXMo)
=======
"But this is probably not going to happen in NC. Everyone loves Cooper. He didn't have a single controversy."
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:21 AM (AutN8)
87
They're selling dollars for 40 cents.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (AutN
If not for the cheating and sure to follow Dim law fare, aannnd the shadiness of betting online,
I'd take that bet all day every day.
A quick way to double your money.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:07 AM (AutN
If not for the cheating and sure to follow Dim law fare, aannnd the shadiness of betting online,
I'd take that bet all day every day.
A quick way to double your money.
Posted by: naturalfake at October 26, 2026 11:22 AM (YSUhf)
88
Those attributing Lula's victory to cheating have a higher opinion of the average Brazilian voter than I do.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (2ap+5)
89
The horror! The horror!
CRISIS: Haiti warns it is being overrun with Haitians
Bo Loudon
@BoLoudon
Haitian officials are now complaining they're "OVERWHELMED" by the amount of Haitian migrants the United States is returning to their country.
The United States *HAS BEEN* overwhelmed and is finally being put FIRST.
Thank you, President Trump. I voted for this!
-
Now do Somalia!
CRISIS: Haiti warns it is being overrun with Haitians
Bo Loudon
@BoLoudon
Haitian officials are now complaining they're "OVERWHELMED" by the amount of Haitian migrants the United States is returning to their country.
The United States *HAS BEEN* overwhelmed and is finally being put FIRST.
Thank you, President Trump. I voted for this!
-
Now do Somalia!
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (ndZc7)
90
87 If not for the cheating and sure to follow Dim law fare, aannnd the shadiness of betting online,
I'd take that bet all day every day.
A quick way to double your money.
Posted by: naturalfake at October 26, 2026 11:22 AM (YSUhf)
=====
In 2020, height of the cheat, Biden lost Texas by 6.
I'd take that bet all day every day.
A quick way to double your money.
Posted by: naturalfake at October 26, 2026 11:22 AM (YSUhf)
=====
In 2020, height of the cheat, Biden lost Texas by 6.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (AutN8)
91
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:18 AM (pawvM)
And this is why the Right has a hard time politically. This is a thread on the commie left and someone has to bash one of our best Senators.
And this is why the Right has a hard time politically. This is a thread on the commie left and someone has to bash one of our best Senators.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (Ti9vn)
92
IIRC, Texas sold the lottery by claiming that the State's rake would go to The Children™ by throwing more money at the teacher unions."
That was pretty much everywhere. "More money for education"...
But never "lower property taxes"
Funny, no?
That was pretty much everywhere. "More money for education"...
But never "lower property taxes"
Funny, no?
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (pfXMo)
93
Those attributing Lula's victory to cheating have a higher opinion of the average Brazilian voter than I do.
Somehow he gained 10M votes between the first and second round when total voting increased by about 5M and most of the candidates eliminated endorsed the challenger.
Somehow he gained 10M votes between the first and second round when total voting increased by about 5M and most of the candidates eliminated endorsed the challenger.
Posted by: 18-1 at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (sKqQm)
94
I think Ted Cruz only won by like two or three points last time? To a candidate that was openly saying he wanted to round up guns.
In 2024, Cruz beat Colin Allred by about 9 points.
In 2024, Cruz beat Colin Allred by about 9 points.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:24 AM (M60gE)
95
88 Those attributing Lula's victory to cheating have a higher opinion of the average Brazilian voter than I do.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (2ap+5)
========
A single judge breaking the rules of election orders from the judiciary (who happens to have been Lula's personal lawyer), orchestrating a 2 hour extended vote time with Lula strongholds while opponent strongholds don't get the memo and shut down their machines (which can't be turned back on) isn't cheating.
Got it.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (2ap+5)
========
A single judge breaking the rules of election orders from the judiciary (who happens to have been Lula's personal lawyer), orchestrating a 2 hour extended vote time with Lula strongholds while opponent strongholds don't get the memo and shut down their machines (which can't be turned back on) isn't cheating.
Got it.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:24 AM (AutN8)
96
I recently read "Everybody Loses" by Danny Funt. Online betting (particularly sports) is a yuge industry now, bigger than video games and movies. The convenience of smartphone apps makes it so easy to click away your money whenever the impulse hits.
I wonder how many bets were made at the local sports bar several drinks in?
I wonder how many bets were made at the local sports bar several drinks in?
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:24 AM (pawvM)
97
Thx Buck.
Funny vid a Twitchy of black women in Michigan crapping all over al-Sayed and Muslims in general. No way , unless there's a steal , that al-Sayed wins. The blacks are not showing up for him
Funny vid a Twitchy of black women in Michigan crapping all over al-Sayed and Muslims in general. No way , unless there's a steal , that al-Sayed wins. The blacks are not showing up for him
Posted by: Smell the Glove at October 26, 2026 11:24 AM (h7zKj)
98
Haitian officials are now complaining they're "OVERWHELMED" by the amount of Haitian migrants the United States is returning to their country.
The United States *HAS BEEN* overwhelmed and is finally being put FIRST.
Thank you, President Trump. I voted for this!
Maybe Haiti could open an annex in some other underpopulated area. I hear Somalia is nice.
The United States *HAS BEEN* overwhelmed and is finally being put FIRST.
Thank you, President Trump. I voted for this!
Maybe Haiti could open an annex in some other underpopulated area. I hear Somalia is nice.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:25 AM (Riz8t)
99
94 I think Ted Cruz only won by like two or three points last time? To a candidate that was openly saying he wanted to round up guns.
In 2024, Cruz beat Colin Allred by about 9 points.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:24 AM (M60gE)
========
No one remembers that.
And, he underperformed Trump and still won by 900,000 votes.
There are simply way too many Republicans in Texas.
In 2024, Cruz beat Colin Allred by about 9 points.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:24 AM (M60gE)
========
No one remembers that.
And, he underperformed Trump and still won by 900,000 votes.
There are simply way too many Republicans in Texas.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:25 AM (AutN8)
100
Just saw a picture on X of the crowd in Detroit for Obama. There was a male who appeared to be made of pure soy wearing a T-shirt that said "Cats Against Trump".
Once again the Bee is preemptively defeated by leftists doing a joke before it can be told.
Once again the Bee is preemptively defeated by leftists doing a joke before it can be told.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 26, 2026 11:25 AM (2ocoG)
101
98 Haitian officials are now complaining they're "OVERWHELMED" by the amount of Haitian migrants the United States is returning to their country.
The United States *HAS BEEN* overwhelmed and is finally being put FIRST.
Thank you, President Trump. I voted for this!
Maybe Haiti could open an annex in some other underpopulated area. I hear Somalia is nice.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:25 AM (Riz8t)
========
El Salvador has plans for decreasing Haiti's criminal population.
The United States *HAS BEEN* overwhelmed and is finally being put FIRST.
Thank you, President Trump. I voted for this!
Maybe Haiti could open an annex in some other underpopulated area. I hear Somalia is nice.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:25 AM (Riz8t)
========
El Salvador has plans for decreasing Haiti's criminal population.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:26 AM (AutN8)
102
Keep in mind black voters vote whether they intend to or not. That’s how you get 102% turnout in inner city precincts.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:27 AM (N8AvH)
103
Those attributing Lula's victory to cheating have a higher opinion of the average Brazilian voter than I do.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (2ap+5)
The opposition won the lower offices and beat Lula in the first election 47-45 and was ahead in polling for the run off with the other former candidates endorsing Bolsanaro.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (2ap+5)
The opposition won the lower offices and beat Lula in the first election 47-45 and was ahead in polling for the run off with the other former candidates endorsing Bolsanaro.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:27 AM (Ti9vn)
104
Those attributing Lula's victory to cheating have a higher opinion of the average Brazilian voter than I do.
I know it's fun to signal that you hate the voters, but the fraud in this case is glowing brighter than the sun, and the swing from the original election results to the runoff approaches mathematically impossible, just like the famous 2020 graph where the ballot dumps came in for the Autopen.
I know it's fun to signal that you hate the voters, but the fraud in this case is glowing brighter than the sun, and the swing from the original election results to the runoff approaches mathematically impossible, just like the famous 2020 graph where the ballot dumps came in for the Autopen.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 26, 2026 11:28 AM (2ocoG)
105
Those attributing Lula's victory to cheating have a higher opinion of the average Brazilian voter than I do.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (2ap+5)
The opposition won the lower offices and beat Lula in the first election 47-45 and was ahead in polling for the run off with the other former candidates endorsing Bolsanaro.
Has anyone checked the plumbing in Brazil?
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (2ap+5)
The opposition won the lower offices and beat Lula in the first election 47-45 and was ahead in polling for the run off with the other former candidates endorsing Bolsanaro.
Has anyone checked the plumbing in Brazil?
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:28 AM (Riz8t)
106
104 Those attributing Lula's victory to cheating have a higher opinion of the average Brazilian voter than I do.
I know it's fun to signal that you hate the voters, but the fraud in this case is glowing brighter than the sun, and the swing from the original election results to the runoff approaches mathematically impossible, just like the famous 2020 graph where the ballot dumps came in for the Autopen.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 26, 2026 11:28 AM (2ocoG)
==
Plus, you know, the explicit cheating of the 2 hour added time and how that came about.
I know it's fun to signal that you hate the voters, but the fraud in this case is glowing brighter than the sun, and the swing from the original election results to the runoff approaches mathematically impossible, just like the famous 2020 graph where the ballot dumps came in for the Autopen.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 26, 2026 11:28 AM (2ocoG)
==
Plus, you know, the explicit cheating of the 2 hour added time and how that came about.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:28 AM (AutN8)
107
How much do I win from Kalshi if I bet $100 on Paxton to win?
Posted by: Jack Squat Bupkis at October 26, 2026 11:28 AM (GD2xa)
108
70 Be interesting to see how Abdul wins Michigan without the black vote.
>>@DSA_Watch
·
1h
>>🚨 “Empowering Black Americans,” a group of THOUSANDS of Black Michigan Democrats, announces that it opposes Abdul El-Sayed.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:18 AM (viF8m)
Abdul was on MSNow yesterday.....
With Al Sharpton!!!!!
Yeah, things are going swimmingly on his campaign.
And they dragged obama out of the bath houses to campaign for abdul. I asked AI to review the transcript. Sit down for the results....
"How much did he actually talk about Abdul?
The speech ran about 41 minutes after Obama's introduction. His most concentrated discussion of El-Sayed came between approximately 23:26 and 30:46, when he discussed El-Sayed's policy positions, background, disagreements with Obama and Republican opponent Mike Rogers. He also endorsed El-Sayed at the beginning and end.
The distinction is that Obama mentioned Abdul by name about 20 times, but spent much of the speech discussing national politics and his criticisms of the Trump administration. He also referred to himself repeatedly, sometimes to explain his record and sometimes to draw comparisons with El-Sayed."
>>@DSA_Watch
·
1h
>>🚨 “Empowering Black Americans,” a group of THOUSANDS of Black Michigan Democrats, announces that it opposes Abdul El-Sayed.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:18 AM (viF8m)
Abdul was on MSNow yesterday.....
With Al Sharpton!!!!!
Yeah, things are going swimmingly on his campaign.
And they dragged obama out of the bath houses to campaign for abdul. I asked AI to review the transcript. Sit down for the results....
"How much did he actually talk about Abdul?
The speech ran about 41 minutes after Obama's introduction. His most concentrated discussion of El-Sayed came between approximately 23:26 and 30:46, when he discussed El-Sayed's policy positions, background, disagreements with Obama and Republican opponent Mike Rogers. He also endorsed El-Sayed at the beginning and end.
The distinction is that Obama mentioned Abdul by name about 20 times, but spent much of the speech discussing national politics and his criticisms of the Trump administration. He also referred to himself repeatedly, sometimes to explain his record and sometimes to draw comparisons with El-Sayed."
Posted by: Stateless - Ralphy - 106 years old! Puppy at heart! at October 26, 2026 11:29 AM (Sco7b)
109
This. 100% this, as the kids say. FR FR
Seriously though, its the cheapest campaign ads you can run and its not restricted or limited in any way by federal campaign finance laws. You can lay down any amount you want in Polymarket or whatever, and change the odds. You can get 15000 people to bet one way, and change the odds. And its a fraction of the price of running even a short campaign ad or printing 500,000 door hangers and paying some poor sap to put them on doors.
These sites are all about influencing voters because far too many people take "polls" as gospel and are very influenced by them.
Seriously though, its the cheapest campaign ads you can run and its not restricted or limited in any way by federal campaign finance laws. You can lay down any amount you want in Polymarket or whatever, and change the odds. You can get 15000 people to bet one way, and change the odds. And its a fraction of the price of running even a short campaign ad or printing 500,000 door hangers and paying some poor sap to put them on doors.
These sites are all about influencing voters because far too many people take "polls" as gospel and are very influenced by them.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:29 AM (TMNW7)
110
Plus, you know, the explicit cheating of the 2 hour added time and how that came about.
And Alex Soros talking like he just won the Super Bowl.
And Alex Soros talking like he just won the Super Bowl.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 26, 2026 11:29 AM (2ocoG)
111
I wonder how many bets were made at the local sports bar several drinks in?"
I can tell you with some certainty that it's not just in places like that.
Mrs' surgery had me waiting at the 5th floor (huge waiting area). I'd walk around every half hour or so, and I'd guess that a third (maybe) of the people were "playing" one of the "market" apps. They're everywhere.
I can tell you with some certainty that it's not just in places like that.
Mrs' surgery had me waiting at the 5th floor (huge waiting area). I'd walk around every half hour or so, and I'd guess that a third (maybe) of the people were "playing" one of the "market" apps. They're everywhere.
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:30 AM (pfXMo)
112
Not all Brazil nuts are in Brazil.
9th Circuit Court of Appeals Questions DOJ’s Attempt to Prevent Noncitizen Voting in California
9th Circuit Court of Appeals Questions DOJ’s Attempt to Prevent Noncitizen Voting in California
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:30 AM (ndZc7)
113
Lula's first act upon being reelected? Calling for censorship on social media. Then one of his ministers called for Lula's opponent to be arrested for "inquiry."
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:30 AM (TMNW7)
114
Talarico does NOT have a 65% chance of winning,
Razib Khan and Mike Cernovich were independently reporting that Hispanics aren't turning out for Paxton like they did against that phony O'Rourke.
It's not because of ICE, although a lot of Khan's commenters want to believe it is, because there's a narrative that the GOP is just too racist this year (resentful immigrants say this every other year). Khan blames gas prices and the Iran war.
Razib Khan and Mike Cernovich were independently reporting that Hispanics aren't turning out for Paxton like they did against that phony O'Rourke.
It's not because of ICE, although a lot of Khan's commenters want to believe it is, because there's a narrative that the GOP is just too racist this year (resentful immigrants say this every other year). Khan blames gas prices and the Iran war.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:30 AM (88C+u)
115
As for me, I'm voting for James Talarico.
Posted by: James Talarico's Mom at October 26, 2026 11:31 AM (0sNs1)
116
How much do I win from Kalshi if I bet $100 on Paxton to win?
Posted by: Jack Squat Bupkis at October 26, 2026 11:28 AM (GD2xa)
About $170 profit including the big.
Posted by: Jack Squat Bupkis at October 26, 2026 11:28 AM (GD2xa)
About $170 profit including the big.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:31 AM (N8AvH)
117
And Alex Soros talking like he just won the Super Bowl.
Not just him but every one of the worst people on earth are celebrating like they won Powerball.
Not just him but every one of the worst people on earth are celebrating like they won Powerball.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:31 AM (TMNW7)
118
one of our best Senators.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (Ti9vn)
Well, if that's not damning by faint praise, nothing is.
"BTK is one of our best serial killers."
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (Ti9vn)
Well, if that's not damning by faint praise, nothing is.
"BTK is one of our best serial killers."
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 26, 2026 11:32 AM (BI5O2)
119
And this is why the Right has a hard time politically. This is a thread on the commie left and someone has to bash one of our best Senators.
If Cruz is one of "our best Senators" then it shows how deplorable and feckless the GOP is, and why it inspires no one.
How can the Left inspire by pushing hate and total societal collapse? Because it is an achievable plan to their audience.
Its an absolute horrible plan, but is a plan that people believe will Do Something™ The GOP machine installs Republicants rather than Republicans.
We couldn't even get a majority to do something fall down simple like pass the SAVE America Act or implement any DOGE cuts or even take a fucking recess so that Trump can appoint judges and other nominees.
If Cruz is one of "our best Senators" then it shows how deplorable and feckless the GOP is, and why it inspires no one.
How can the Left inspire by pushing hate and total societal collapse? Because it is an achievable plan to their audience.
Its an absolute horrible plan, but is a plan that people believe will Do Something™ The GOP machine installs Republicants rather than Republicans.
We couldn't even get a majority to do something fall down simple like pass the SAVE America Act or implement any DOGE cuts or even take a fucking recess so that Trump can appoint judges and other nominees.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:32 AM (pawvM)
120
If a low-life socialist who receives 10 million votes and is losing to a free-market candidate by 1 vote goes out into the jungle and brings back 2 aborigines who put him over the top, I'm blaming the 10 million voters, not the cheating.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:32 AM (2ap+5)
121
Razib Khan and Mike Cernovich were independently reporting that Hispanics aren't turning out for Paxton like they did against that phony O'Rourke."
The ones I know are. "Trans" and "LBGTQWERTY" doesn't play well w/the more "catholic" types...
The ones I know are. "Trans" and "LBGTQWERTY" doesn't play well w/the more "catholic" types...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:33 AM (pfXMo)
122
Not just him but every one of the worst people on earth are celebrating like they won Powerball.
I've seen Tim Walz and Mark Carney doing it so far, which tracks.
I've seen Tim Walz and Mark Carney doing it so far, which tracks.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 26, 2026 11:33 AM (2ocoG)
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:33 AM (ndZc7)
124
because far too many people take "polls" as gospel
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:29 AM
Dude. I don't even take Gospel as Gospel.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:29 AM
Dude. I don't even take Gospel as Gospel.
Posted by: James Talarico at October 26, 2026 11:33 AM (0sNs1)
125
If Cruz is one of "our best Senators" then it shows how deplorable and feckless the GOP is, and why it inspires no one.
what does this even mean. it's just lazy rhetoric.
Ted Cruz is one of the better Senators and I don't know what you want out of him. I would be extremely happy if clones of him were all our Senators!
what does this even mean. it's just lazy rhetoric.
Ted Cruz is one of the better Senators and I don't know what you want out of him. I would be extremely happy if clones of him were all our Senators!
Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 26, 2026 11:34 AM (qBivk)
126
114 It's not because of ICE, although a lot of Khan's commenters want to believe it is, because there's a narrative that the GOP is just too racist this year (resentful immigrants say this every other year). Khan blames gas prices and the Iran war.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:30 AM (88C+u)
========
Polling on Hispanics showed that Trump was going to lose dozens of points of support in 2024. Didn't happen.
And early voting analysis in places like AZ and FL show that there's no erosion of Hispanic support.
https://x.com/RealSKeshel/status/
2113354761277952418
https://x.com/RealSKeshel/status/
2111813719072067816
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:30 AM (88C+u)
========
Polling on Hispanics showed that Trump was going to lose dozens of points of support in 2024. Didn't happen.
And early voting analysis in places like AZ and FL show that there's no erosion of Hispanic support.
https://x.com/RealSKeshel/status/
2113354761277952418
https://x.com/RealSKeshel/status/
2111813719072067816
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:34 AM (AutN8)
127
How much do I win from Kalshi if I bet $100 on Paxton to win?
Posted by: Jack Squat Bupkis"
Funny.
(nothing. You "win" from the others you bet against. Kalshi keeps their vig)
Posted by: Jack Squat Bupkis"
Funny.
(nothing. You "win" from the others you bet against. Kalshi keeps their vig)
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:34 AM (pfXMo)
128
The officiating in both college and pro football this weekend was especially awful.
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory
My prediction is that at least one points shaving scheme will be uncovered at some point this year.
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory
My prediction is that at least one points shaving scheme will be uncovered at some point this year.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 26, 2026 11:34 AM (0U5gm)
129
If I understand correctly, Lula didn't just get a single supreme court judge to extend the voting by two hours, completely going around the election courts that were set up for the purpose, the judge was previously Lula's longtime private attorney and the polls were only kept open in areas that favored Lula.
Yea, it was completely rigged.
As I mentioned above the Brazilian stock market was closed earlier this morning when circuit breakers kicked in after the market dropped 15%. Brazilians know the election was stolen.
Yea, it was completely rigged.
As I mentioned above the Brazilian stock market was closed earlier this morning when circuit breakers kicked in after the market dropped 15%. Brazilians know the election was stolen.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:34 AM (viF8m)
130
Razib Khan and Mike Cernovich were independently reporting that Hispanics aren't turning out for Paxton like they did against that phony O'Rourke.
Paxton is not a very strong candidate, and he has some dark spots on his record, so I can see some being less invested in going to vote, but compared to Talarico he looks like a saint.
Paxton is not a very strong candidate, and he has some dark spots on his record, so I can see some being less invested in going to vote, but compared to Talarico he looks like a saint.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:35 AM (TMNW7)
131
129 If I understand correctly, Lula didn't just get a single supreme court judge to extend the voting by two hours, completely going around the election courts that were set up for the purpose, the judge was previously Lula's longtime private attorney and the polls were only kept open in areas that favored Lula.
Yea, it was completely rigged.
As I mentioned above the Brazilian stock market was closed earlier this morning when circuit breakers kicked in after the market dropped 15%. Brazilians know the election was stolen.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:34 AM (viF8m)
=
And the statutory process in Brazil is that the entire panel of judges have to agree on the action, and only the former personal attorney signed the order.
Yea, it was completely rigged.
As I mentioned above the Brazilian stock market was closed earlier this morning when circuit breakers kicked in after the market dropped 15%. Brazilians know the election was stolen.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:34 AM (viF8m)
=
And the statutory process in Brazil is that the entire panel of judges have to agree on the action, and only the former personal attorney signed the order.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:35 AM (AutN8)
132
Its an absolute horrible plan, but is a plan that people believe will Do Something™ The GOP machine installs Republicants rather than Republicans.
We couldn't even get a majority to do something fall down simple like pass the SAVE America Act or implement any DOGE cuts or even take a fucking recess so that Trump can appoint judges and other nominees.
It's ironic then that you talk as if nothing is changing. We know who the problems are, and for the most part, they're gone in a few months. Murk will have a tough campaign in '28.
It's frustrating, but I prefer to focus on the future, not dwell endlessly on the failures of the past, especially when they're in the process of being corrected. In short, I'm a RepubliCAN, not a RepubliCAN'T, as you are in danger of being.
We couldn't even get a majority to do something fall down simple like pass the SAVE America Act or implement any DOGE cuts or even take a fucking recess so that Trump can appoint judges and other nominees.
It's ironic then that you talk as if nothing is changing. We know who the problems are, and for the most part, they're gone in a few months. Murk will have a tough campaign in '28.
It's frustrating, but I prefer to focus on the future, not dwell endlessly on the failures of the past, especially when they're in the process of being corrected. In short, I'm a RepubliCAN, not a RepubliCAN'T, as you are in danger of being.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:35 AM (Riz8t)
133
Lula (really his handlers) absolutely did cheat. they did it in a novel way - seconds before 5pm when all polling was set to close, they got a single judge to rule that certain (very rotten) boroughs got extra voting time, and acted on this idea IMMEDIATELY. I assume it was planned ahead of time and it was impossible to respond to as by the time news got out all the normal areas had closed their polls (and could not reopen them).
sneaky.
and who thinks the people of Brazil legitimately voted in the left initially? odds are they didn't.
sneaky.
and who thinks the people of Brazil legitimately voted in the left initially? odds are they didn't.
Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (qBivk)
134
I've never trusted Cruz after the Zodiac evidence came out and Trump noted his pops helped assassinate JFK.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (M60gE)
135
'Kalshi' sounds like an organic breakfast cereal sold at Whole Foods.
Posted by: gp at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (Jr5Lq)
136
A couple weeks ago this Talarico freak went missing. His campaign was disorganized. The Black community seemingly is shunning him for taking out the gutter snipe. I can't fathom how he wins TX.
However I can fathom how some people are going to make a bunch of money off the betting pool on him.
However I can fathom how some people are going to make a bunch of money off the betting pool on him.
Posted by: Martini Farmer at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (RORbl)
137
My prediction is that at least one points shaving scheme will be uncovered at some point this year."
Sorsby (sp?) waves...
Sorsby (sp?) waves...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (pfXMo)
138
108. ... The distinction is that Obama mentioned Abdul by name about 20 times, but spent much of the speech discussing national politics and his criticisms of the Trump administration. He also referred to himself repeatedly, sometimes to explain his record and sometimes to draw comparisons with El-Sayed."
Posted by: Stateless
So, clearly they know, "All politics are local."
Posted by: Stateless
So, clearly they know, "All politics are local."
Posted by: L - No nic.... at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (NFX2v)
139
Let’s say you had a bag with 3 balls. 2 red and 1 green. If you reached in the bag, grabbed one randomly and it was green, would you be shocked? Probably not.
That’s what the odds are right now for Republicans to hold the senate. 65% isn’t 99.99% the way some people are treating it.
That’s what the odds are right now for Republicans to hold the senate. 65% isn’t 99.99% the way some people are treating it.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (N8AvH)
140
"BTK is one of our best serial killers."
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 26, 2026 11:32 AM (BI5O2)
BTK was a pimp. He could never have outfought Kemper.
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 26, 2026 11:32 AM (BI5O2)
BTK was a pimp. He could never have outfought Kemper.
Posted by: Vito Corleone at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (ZSf0o)
141
It Begins: Schiff Teases Trump Impeachment
This morning on Newsmax they said the Democrats have declared their #1 priority once they win both the House and Senate is to eliminate Hegseth. They really, really want to try and cause a military coup. I'm fairly certain that wouldn't go the way they think it would. It would open with an accidental nuking of Sacramento and get funnier from there.
This morning on Newsmax they said the Democrats have declared their #1 priority once they win both the House and Senate is to eliminate Hegseth. They really, really want to try and cause a military coup. I'm fairly certain that wouldn't go the way they think it would. It would open with an accidental nuking of Sacramento and get funnier from there.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 26, 2026 11:37 AM (2ocoG)
142
My prediction is that at least one points shaving scheme will be uncovered at some point this year.
The corruption in football is getting outrageous. There have been some bad calls in baseball but they are all usual baseball stuff. But the football stuff is stunningly obvious. NBA as well.
ALL of the sports have been taken over by gambling because that's where the money is and their revenues have been dropping over the years. People just don't go to games as much any more, people don't watch sports like the used to, especially younger people.
But gambling apps, sports booking, and sports leagues all keep people interested and earn the leagues money. They openly and blatantly advertise FOR GAMBLING during the games and even on the field.
The corruption in football is getting outrageous. There have been some bad calls in baseball but they are all usual baseball stuff. But the football stuff is stunningly obvious. NBA as well.
ALL of the sports have been taken over by gambling because that's where the money is and their revenues have been dropping over the years. People just don't go to games as much any more, people don't watch sports like the used to, especially younger people.
But gambling apps, sports booking, and sports leagues all keep people interested and earn the leagues money. They openly and blatantly advertise FOR GAMBLING during the games and even on the field.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:37 AM (TMNW7)
143
'Kalshi' sounds like an organic breakfast cereal sold at Whole Foods.
Posted by: gp at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM
Where's the social justice for Kaboom! consumers?
Posted by: gp at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM
Where's the social justice for Kaboom! consumers?
Posted by: Elizabeth "Two Dogs" Warren (D-MA) at October 26, 2026 11:37 AM (0sNs1)
144
Remember. The polls we see are not the polls the candidates see.
Posted by: Dr. Pork Chops & Bacons at October 26, 2026 11:37 AM (g8Ew8)
145
144 Remember. The polls we see are not the polls the candidates see.
Posted by: Dr. Pork Chops & Bacons at October 26, 2026 11:37 AM (g8Ew
========
"We never lead in any of our internal polls."
-Kamala's pollsters
"Brat Summer!"
-the public polls
Posted by: Dr. Pork Chops & Bacons at October 26, 2026 11:37 AM (g8Ew
========
"We never lead in any of our internal polls."
-Kamala's pollsters
"Brat Summer!"
-the public polls
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:38 AM (AutN8)
146
Bo Loudon
@BoLoudon
Haitian officials are now complaining they're "OVERWHELMED" by the amount of Haitian migrants the United States is returning to their country.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (ndZc7)
-
Haitians gonna hait!
@BoLoudon
Haitian officials are now complaining they're "OVERWHELMED" by the amount of Haitian migrants the United States is returning to their country.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:23 AM (ndZc7)
-
Haitians gonna hait!
Posted by: Biden's Dog sniffs a whole lotta malarkey, at October 26, 2026 11:38 AM (lgmVC)
147
Lula (really his handlers) absolutely did cheat. they did it in a novel way - seconds before 5pm when all polling was set to close, they got a single judge to rule that certain (very rotten) boroughs got extra voting time, and acted on this idea IMMEDIATELY. I assume it was planned ahead of time and it was impossible to respond to as by the time news got out all the normal areas had closed their polls (and could not reopen them).
I might have to put "Brazilian Civil War" on my bingo card.
I might have to put "Brazilian Civil War" on my bingo card.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:38 AM (Riz8t)
148
Sucks to be you.
Dominican Men Beg for Rescue After Being Duped Into Fighting for Russia in Ukraine War
Three men from the Dominican Republic are begging to be rescued from Russia, where they claimed they were lured by false promises of jobs — and then sent to the battlefield in the war with Ukraine.
Dominican Men Beg for Rescue After Being Duped Into Fighting for Russia in Ukraine War
Three men from the Dominican Republic are begging to be rescued from Russia, where they claimed they were lured by false promises of jobs — and then sent to the battlefield in the war with Ukraine.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (ndZc7)
149
135 'Kalshi' sounds like an organic breakfast cereal sold at Whole Foods.
Posted by: gp at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (Jr5Lq)
It's really good for the digestion.
Posted by: gp at October 26, 2026 11:36 AM (Jr5Lq)
It's really good for the digestion.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (Y/06r)
150
Paxton is not a very strong candidate, and he has some dark spots on his record, so I can see some being less invested in going to vote, but compared to Talarico he looks like a saint.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:35 AM (TMNW7)
Democracy is so wonderful. I can't get enough of it.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:35 AM (TMNW7)
Democracy is so wonderful. I can't get enough of it.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (2ap+5)
151
and who thinks the people of Brazil legitimately voted in the left initially? odds are they didn't.
The initial "vote in" was done under USAID auspices. They concentrated a lot of money and effort there after Jair Bolsonaro was friendly with Trump, because everything revolves around hating Trump.
The initial "vote in" was done under USAID auspices. They concentrated a lot of money and effort there after Jair Bolsonaro was friendly with Trump, because everything revolves around hating Trump.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (2ocoG)
152
GOP Senate is looking better up norf -
@JacobALinker
Rogers at 33% with Black voters and 10% undecided.
It’s gonna be a nail biter in Michigan.
@JacobALinker
Rogers at 33% with Black voters and 10% undecided.
It’s gonna be a nail biter in Michigan.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (88C+u)
153
Kalshi sounds like a cereal sold at Whole Foods because there is a cereal called Kashi (no l) at Whole Foods.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:40 AM (N8AvH)
154
Haitian officials are now complaining they're "OVERWHELMED" by the amount of Haitian migrants the United States is returning to their country.
all those hardworking prodigals! they should be thrilled. there's tons of work to be done in Haiti
get cracking!
all those hardworking prodigals! they should be thrilled. there's tons of work to be done in Haiti
get cracking!
Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 26, 2026 11:40 AM (qBivk)
155
They openly and blatantly advertise FOR GAMBLING during the games and even on the field."
Like at "Caesars Superdome"?
Like at "Caesars Superdome"?
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:40 AM (pfXMo)
156
We couldn't even get a majority to do something fall down simple like pass the SAVE America Act or implement any DOGE cuts or even take a fucking recess so that Trump can appoint judges and other nominees.
While i agree that the Republican party is worthless at best, and actively hostile to us in all likelihood... the Democrats are even worse. We cannot vote our way out of this but we might be able to delay the inevitable by keeping the left out of power as long as we can.
While i agree that the Republican party is worthless at best, and actively hostile to us in all likelihood... the Democrats are even worse. We cannot vote our way out of this but we might be able to delay the inevitable by keeping the left out of power as long as we can.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:40 AM (TMNW7)
157
I think one thing the Left has accomplished with the help of the CCP is demonizing Data Centers.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:40 AM (Ti9vn)
158
Three men from the Dominican Republic are begging to be rescued from Russia, where they claimed they were lured by false promises of jobs — and then sent to the battlefield in the war with Ukraine.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (ndZc7)
'Here's your sign' next level division.
Kind of like the guy in Brazil who sold everything he owned to go meet up with the girl he met online and then found out she was AI.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (ndZc7)
'Here's your sign' next level division.
Kind of like the guy in Brazil who sold everything he owned to go meet up with the girl he met online and then found out she was AI.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at October 26, 2026 11:41 AM (Y/06r)
159
It doesn't look like Obama is going to move the needle for blacks in MI, having come there to make it all about himself and his resentments.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:41 AM (88C+u)
160
I might have to put "Brazilian Civil War" on my bingo card.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:38 AM
Hopefully we don't refight the "Brazilian Wax War" here on AoSHQ. Those Hardwoodians are a hard group.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:38 AM
Hopefully we don't refight the "Brazilian Wax War" here on AoSHQ. Those Hardwoodians are a hard group.
Posted by: Carpeteers of AoSHQ at October 26, 2026 11:41 AM (0sNs1)
161
>>That’s what the odds are right now for Republicans to hold the senate. 65% isn’t 99.99% the way some people are treating it.
A day before the 2016 election, HuffPo gave Hillary a 98.2% chance of winning based on polls.
All we have to do is use our own eyes and brains. We've told enthusiasm is way down for Republicans vs Democrats this cycle. Yet Trump is drawing record crowds to his rallies that are done specifically for local candidates. People are waiting in line, sometimes overnight, just to get in.
There is nothing like that happening on the left.
A day before the 2016 election, HuffPo gave Hillary a 98.2% chance of winning based on polls.
All we have to do is use our own eyes and brains. We've told enthusiasm is way down for Republicans vs Democrats this cycle. Yet Trump is drawing record crowds to his rallies that are done specifically for local candidates. People are waiting in line, sometimes overnight, just to get in.
There is nothing like that happening on the left.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:41 AM (viF8m)
162
Haitian officials are now complaining they're "OVERWHELMED" by the amount of Haitian migrants the United States is returning to their country.
This just baffles me. How does Haitians returning home overwhelm Haiti? I mean, I don't really care either way, Haiti is as close to hell on earth as we have right now, filled with demonic people and probably even spirits, but it makes no sense.
This just baffles me. How does Haitians returning home overwhelm Haiti? I mean, I don't really care either way, Haiti is as close to hell on earth as we have right now, filled with demonic people and probably even spirits, but it makes no sense.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:42 AM (TMNW7)
163
There are 350m Americans.
There are 100 Senators.
Quibbling over who is the best of the worst 0.000003% people in the country seems fruitless.
There are 350m Americans.
There are 100 Senators.
Quibbling over who is the best of the worst 0.000003% people in the country seems fruitless.
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 26, 2026 11:42 AM (BI5O2)
164
I was 20 years old when I found out Brazil Nuts were the proper name.
-----
What name were you aware of prior to that?
Posted by: Crusader
Deez
I was 20 years old when I found out Brazil Nuts were the proper name.
-----
What name were you aware of prior to that?
Posted by: Crusader
Deez
Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at October 26, 2026 11:42 AM (Cqx++)
165
152 GOP Senate is looking better up norf -
@JacobALinker
Rogers at 33% with Black voters and 10% undecided.
It’s gonna be a nail biter in Michigan.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (88C+u)
========
I'm sorry, but a Democrat losing 33% of the black vote in Michigan is losing by not a small amount overall.
Polling is oversampling young voters (assuming 15-20% of the electorate when they'll be, absolute max, 12% and probably closer to 8%) while missing, heavily, white working class voters.
This happened...in the MI primary. This year. The polling was showing El-Sayed easily winning, and then it was a sudden nail biter.
Did the polling firms fix their problems from then to now?
The hallowed RCP average of that primary was El-Sayed winning by about 12. He won by 1.
@JacobALinker
Rogers at 33% with Black voters and 10% undecided.
It’s gonna be a nail biter in Michigan.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (88C+u)
========
I'm sorry, but a Democrat losing 33% of the black vote in Michigan is losing by not a small amount overall.
Polling is oversampling young voters (assuming 15-20% of the electorate when they'll be, absolute max, 12% and probably closer to 8%) while missing, heavily, white working class voters.
This happened...in the MI primary. This year. The polling was showing El-Sayed easily winning, and then it was a sudden nail biter.
Did the polling firms fix their problems from then to now?
The hallowed RCP average of that primary was El-Sayed winning by about 12. He won by 1.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:42 AM (AutN8)
166
ALL of the sports have been taken over by gambling because that's where the money is and their revenues have been dropping over the years. People just don't go to games as much any more, people don't watch sports like the used to, especially younger people.
---------
I beg to differ. Every college football venue I've seen on tv is packed to capacity. Same for pro games. Do you mean soccer?
---------
I beg to differ. Every college football venue I've seen on tv is packed to capacity. Same for pro games. Do you mean soccer?
Posted by: Dr. Pork Chops & Bacons at October 26, 2026 11:43 AM (g8Ew8)
167
I think one thing the Left has accomplished with the help of the CCP is demonizing Data Centers.
And AI, they have really turned young people against AI. Some are rabidly, almost insanely opposed to it. Like if they will hard enough they manifest a future where it disappeared.
And AI, they have really turned young people against AI. Some are rabidly, almost insanely opposed to it. Like if they will hard enough they manifest a future where it disappeared.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:43 AM (TMNW7)
168
partisans who see their stake as a campaign contribution to fuel a desired outcome
Well, Buck, isn't that what an investor is? Though I would say it more as "see their stake as a contribution to get what they desire out of it."
Well, Buck, isn't that what an investor is? Though I would say it more as "see their stake as a contribution to get what they desire out of it."
Posted by: GWB at October 26, 2026 11:43 AM (kU0PQ)
169
A day before the 2016 election, HuffPo gave Hillary a 98.2% chance of winning based on polls.
All we have to do is use our own eyes and brains. We've told enthusiasm is way down for Republicans vs Democrats this cycle. Yet Trump is drawing record crowds to his rallies that are done specifically for local candidates. People are waiting in line, sometimes overnight, just to get in.
There is nothing like that happening on the left.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:41 AM
Just to put things into perspective, some of those very same political betting sites that are projecting a talerico win were paying out on a hillary win in 2016 two weeks before election day.
All we have to do is use our own eyes and brains. We've told enthusiasm is way down for Republicans vs Democrats this cycle. Yet Trump is drawing record crowds to his rallies that are done specifically for local candidates. People are waiting in line, sometimes overnight, just to get in.
There is nothing like that happening on the left.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:41 AM
Just to put things into perspective, some of those very same political betting sites that are projecting a talerico win were paying out on a hillary win in 2016 two weeks before election day.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 26, 2026 11:45 AM (I43vL)
170
145 144 Remember. The polls we see are not the polls the candidates see.
Posted by: Dr. Pork Chops & Bacons at October 26, 2026 11:37 AM (g8Ew
========
"We never lead in any of our internal polls."
-Kamala's pollsters
"Brat Summer!"
-the public polls
Posted by: TheJamesMadison
========
For the most part, internal polls are less about the horse race and more about issues voters are interested in, precincts that need shoring up by visits or have high free media visibility, whether ad buys are effective or not, and other items. Added up together, they can give a reasonably good picture of likelihood of winning but are not themselves perfect.
Scammers etc. have ruined using phones and email for interviews, consistent mass media targeting vilifying those on the right has left conservatives enraged at the media and polling and unwilling to participate, and soon, AI aided scams are going to ruin texts as 2FA is coming under attack now.
And I think some of the pollsters know this and plan a golden parachute via these betting markets either directly or indirectly by passing tips that move these markets. About as scummy as the investment mags, tv, and newspapers are.
Posted by: Dr. Pork Chops & Bacons at October 26, 2026 11:37 AM (g8Ew
========
"We never lead in any of our internal polls."
-Kamala's pollsters
"Brat Summer!"
-the public polls
Posted by: TheJamesMadison
========
For the most part, internal polls are less about the horse race and more about issues voters are interested in, precincts that need shoring up by visits or have high free media visibility, whether ad buys are effective or not, and other items. Added up together, they can give a reasonably good picture of likelihood of winning but are not themselves perfect.
Scammers etc. have ruined using phones and email for interviews, consistent mass media targeting vilifying those on the right has left conservatives enraged at the media and polling and unwilling to participate, and soon, AI aided scams are going to ruin texts as 2FA is coming under attack now.
And I think some of the pollsters know this and plan a golden parachute via these betting markets either directly or indirectly by passing tips that move these markets. About as scummy as the investment mags, tv, and newspapers are.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 11:45 AM (E4rtv)
171
It's frustrating, but I prefer to focus on the future, not dwell endlessly on the failures of the past, especially when they're in the process of being corrected. In short, I'm a RepubliCAN, not a RepubliCAN'T, as you are in danger of being.
Trump has made MAGA Republicans, and you are correct, getting rid of the trash like McCornyn, Kennedy, Thombolina et al go a long way of reforming the derelict party of half wits and Uniparty Elders into something resembling a functioning party.
The reports from the field I'm still getting from red districts is that the people working the early election polling stations are seeing numbers exceeding 2024.
May the fires of Europe encourage the apathetic and complacent to realize that we are in World War One Hundred Eleven.
Trump has made MAGA Republicans, and you are correct, getting rid of the trash like McCornyn, Kennedy, Thombolina et al go a long way of reforming the derelict party of half wits and Uniparty Elders into something resembling a functioning party.
The reports from the field I'm still getting from red districts is that the people working the early election polling stations are seeing numbers exceeding 2024.
May the fires of Europe encourage the apathetic and complacent to realize that we are in World War One Hundred Eleven.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:45 AM (nCgQz)
172
I don't agree with those odds they are giving to Talarico, but it's a coin flip, and it shouldn't be.
I think the big disappointments on election night will be in Michigan, Texas, and potentially Ohio.
I don't agree with those odds they are giving to Talarico, but it's a coin flip, and it shouldn't be.
I think the big disappointments on election night will be in Michigan, Texas, and potentially Ohio.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (suGHj)
173
And AI, they have really turned young people against AI. Some are rabidly, almost insanely opposed to it. Like if they will hard enough they manifest a future where it disappeared.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:43 AM (TMNW7)
I'm trying to help out Trump and call it SI.
Gulf of America and Lake America for the win !!!
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:43 AM (TMNW7)
I'm trying to help out Trump and call it SI.
Gulf of America and Lake America for the win !!!
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (Ti9vn)
174
Paxton is not a very strong candidate, and he has some dark spots on his record, so I can see some being less invested in going to vote, but compared to Talarico he looks like a saint.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:35 AM (TMNW7)
People offer various explanations to validate the polling on the Paxton race. So what about Greg Abbott? Most recent polling I've seen places his race within the margin of error. In 2022, Abbott beat O'Rourke by about 11 points. What explains the current polling on Abbot then (other than the obvious: it's nonsense). He also has a lot of baggage? Not a strong campaigner? (Those are rhetorical questions. Neither is true.)
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:35 AM (TMNW7)
People offer various explanations to validate the polling on the Paxton race. So what about Greg Abbott? Most recent polling I've seen places his race within the margin of error. In 2022, Abbott beat O'Rourke by about 11 points. What explains the current polling on Abbot then (other than the obvious: it's nonsense). He also has a lot of baggage? Not a strong campaigner? (Those are rhetorical questions. Neither is true.)
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (M60gE)
175
It Begins: Schiff Teases Trump Impeachment
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:33 AM (ndZc7)
----
This time it's personal!
No doubt President Trump cheated on his third-grade grammar test.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:33 AM (ndZc7)
----
This time it's personal!
No doubt President Trump cheated on his third-grade grammar test.
Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (FZ29D)
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (ndZc7)
177
Kalshi sounds like a cereal sold at Whole Foods because there is a cereal called Kashi (no l) at Whole Foods."
Huh. I thought it was that chick doing Aquaman in that fantasy show...
Huh. I thought it was that chick doing Aquaman in that fantasy show...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (pfXMo)
178
170 Scammers etc. have ruined using phones and email for interviews, consistent mass media targeting vilifying those on the right has left conservatives enraged at the media and polling and unwilling to participate, and soon, AI aided scams are going to ruin texts as 2FA is coming under attack now.
And I think some of the pollsters know this and plan a golden parachute via these betting markets either directly or indirectly by passing tips that move these markets. About as scummy as the investment mags, tv, and newspapers are.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 11:45 AM (E4rtv)
=======
The NYT now uses Claude-created modeled voters in their polling to overcome their issues with response rates.
And I think some of the pollsters know this and plan a golden parachute via these betting markets either directly or indirectly by passing tips that move these markets. About as scummy as the investment mags, tv, and newspapers are.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 11:45 AM (E4rtv)
=======
The NYT now uses Claude-created modeled voters in their polling to overcome their issues with response rates.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (AutN8)
179
157 I think one thing the Left has accomplished with the help of the CCP is demonizing Data Centers.
Posted by: polynikes
Yes!!!!
I’ve been saying this forever. One day nobody knew what the fuck a data center was. Then the next it’s the biggest problem on the planet. That doesn’t happen organically. It was a CCP op that was executed brilliantly.
It’s not just in the US. Finland just stopped construction of a Google data center because - omg!!! - some trees were cut in the middle of nowhere to allow construction.
Posted by: polynikes
Yes!!!!
I’ve been saying this forever. One day nobody knew what the fuck a data center was. Then the next it’s the biggest problem on the planet. That doesn’t happen organically. It was a CCP op that was executed brilliantly.
It’s not just in the US. Finland just stopped construction of a Google data center because - omg!!! - some trees were cut in the middle of nowhere to allow construction.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (N8AvH)
180
In 2018, Cruz vs Beto, the race ended up being under 2 points. And that was against an established incumbent.
So texas has shown it can nearly go full retard.
So texas has shown it can nearly go full retard.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 11:47 AM (suGHj)
Posted by: no one of any consequence at October 26, 2026 11:47 AM (LOvBA)
182
In other words, can I get a payout for their "contribution?"
Posted by: no one of any consequence at October 26, 2026 11:48 AM (LOvBA)
183
People offer various explanations to validate the polling on the Paxton race.
I don't care about the polling, I'm just examining what the candidates are like and speculating on how that might influence voters.
I don't care about the polling, I'm just examining what the candidates are like and speculating on how that might influence voters.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:48 AM (TMNW7)
184
Well, Buck, isn't that what an investor is? Though I would say it more as "see their stake as a contribution to get what they desire out of it."
Posted by: GWB
=======
Lot of foreign money being directed toward these markets to gain influence on the cheap. Al Sayed race for one thing.
Posted by: GWB
=======
Lot of foreign money being directed toward these markets to gain influence on the cheap. Al Sayed race for one thing.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 11:48 AM (E4rtv)
185
Talarico will not win in Texas. He's a fag. Texans, unlike South Carolinians and Massassholes, don't vote for fags.
Posted by: Barney Fag at October 26, 2026 11:48 AM (8EQTH)
186
@JacobALinker
Rogers at 33% with Black voters and 10% undecided.
It’s gonna be a nail biter in Michigan.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (88C+u)
Rogers was on "Meet the Press" yesterday morning and did well despite Welker being a subhuman witch trying to talk about a quote from 12 years ago.
Whitmer was on after him for a lovefest.
"Meet the Press" - (preferably when they're in a group with a vehicle going 80 and rigged) - has a weekly viewership of 2.5 million.
83.5% are over 54.
Abdul was on MSNow with ratings about 1.7 million.
I'm thinking the value of even showing up on these shows is not that they are seen, but the shows for some reason get reported on and theoretically viewed by billions and billions of likely voters.
Rogers at 33% with Black voters and 10% undecided.
It’s gonna be a nail biter in Michigan.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (88C+u)
Rogers was on "Meet the Press" yesterday morning and did well despite Welker being a subhuman witch trying to talk about a quote from 12 years ago.
Whitmer was on after him for a lovefest.
"Meet the Press" - (preferably when they're in a group with a vehicle going 80 and rigged) - has a weekly viewership of 2.5 million.
83.5% are over 54.
Abdul was on MSNow with ratings about 1.7 million.
I'm thinking the value of even showing up on these shows is not that they are seen, but the shows for some reason get reported on and theoretically viewed by billions and billions of likely voters.
Posted by: Stateless - Ralphy - 106 years old! Puppy at heart! at October 26, 2026 11:48 AM (Sco7b)
187
Finland just stopped construction of a Google data center because - omg!!! - some trees were cut in the middle of nowhere to allow construction.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (N8AvH)
Back to the US, if a somewhat remote part of the US, Mary Peltola is campaigning against data centers. Because Alaska is so densely populated.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:46 AM (N8AvH)
Back to the US, if a somewhat remote part of the US, Mary Peltola is campaigning against data centers. Because Alaska is so densely populated.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 26, 2026 11:49 AM (88C+u)
188
Richard Borcherds, a UC Berkeley professor and Fields medalist, no longer grades his students’ homework.
"After seeing how many of his students used AI to consistently receive top scores, he felt there was 'no point' in paying readers to grade for correctness in homework, as AI use is now unavoidable."
"After seeing how many of his students used AI to consistently receive top scores, he felt there was 'no point' in paying readers to grade for correctness in homework, as AI use is now unavoidable."
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:49 AM (2ap+5)
189
The NYT now uses Claude-created modeled voters in their polling to overcome their issues with response rates.
One wonders what the NYT Claude-created modeling of climate change would show. I mean, that's how science is done, right?
One wonders what the NYT Claude-created modeling of climate change would show. I mean, that's how science is done, right?
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:49 AM (Riz8t)
190
so Elon is on the Brazil thing
supposedly Lula (after they reopened only a few polling places for him) got 4.4 million votes. in 40 minutes. that's 110K votes per minute and in a fraction of the country too.
it is not possible.
he has more analysis of the numbers and they don't number
supposedly Lula (after they reopened only a few polling places for him) got 4.4 million votes. in 40 minutes. that's 110K votes per minute and in a fraction of the country too.
it is not possible.
he has more analysis of the numbers and they don't number
Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 26, 2026 11:49 AM (qBivk)
191
182 In other words, can I get a payout for their "contribution?"
Posted by: no one of any consequence
=======
Yes, if you trust essentially unregulated betting markets--they have stiffed some people using the fine print to avoid paying out in some cases.
Posted by: no one of any consequence
=======
Yes, if you trust essentially unregulated betting markets--they have stiffed some people using the fine print to avoid paying out in some cases.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 11:49 AM (E4rtv)
192
In other words, can I get a payout for their "contribution?"
Yeah these betting operations are the one way you can get direct payback from contributing to a candidate's election. I mean you can get eventual payback if you are big and powerful enough contributor, but this lets small donations get money right away.
Yeah these betting operations are the one way you can get direct payback from contributing to a candidate's election. I mean you can get eventual payback if you are big and powerful enough contributor, but this lets small donations get money right away.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (TMNW7)
193
And AI, they have really turned young people against AI. Some are rabidly, almost insanely opposed to it. Like if they will hard enough they manifest a future where it disappeared.
To be fair, the AI companies, and the way other companies use AI, are also doing their best to turn everyone against AI...
To be fair, the AI companies, and the way other companies use AI, are also doing their best to turn everyone against AI...
Posted by: RandomDave at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (aJQbY)
194
Haitian officials are now complaining they're "OVERWHELMED" by the amount of Haitian migrants the United States is returning to their country.
all those hardworking prodigals! they should be thrilled. there's tons of work to be done in Haiti
get cracking!
Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 26, 2026 11:40 AM (qBivk)
----
Is Haiti implicitly acknowledging they have an overabundance of doctors and engineers?
Why don't they get to work fixing their country?
all those hardworking prodigals! they should be thrilled. there's tons of work to be done in Haiti
get cracking!
Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 26, 2026 11:40 AM (qBivk)
----
Is Haiti implicitly acknowledging they have an overabundance of doctors and engineers?
Why don't they get to work fixing their country?
Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (FZ29D)
195
"After seeing how many of his students used AI to consistently receive top scores, he felt there was 'no point' in paying readers to grade for correctness in homework, as AI use is now unavoidable."
lazy ass professor
it is possible he's just too lazy
lazy ass professor
it is possible he's just too lazy
Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (qBivk)
196
Every college football venue I've seen on tv is packed to capacity"
That's TV. One of the media reports (I know, I know...) was quoted "more than half of all FBS schools have .... significant dips in physical crowds..."
Ticket sales =/= crowds.
That's TV. One of the media reports (I know, I know...) was quoted "more than half of all FBS schools have .... significant dips in physical crowds..."
Ticket sales =/= crowds.
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (pfXMo)
197
Early voting young voters in Alaska:
0.9% of the electorate.
https://x.com/TonerousHyus/status/
2114631139918774480
It's REALLY bad in Alaska, but it's a nice point of reference that...the young don't vote in midterms.
In places like GA and OH, it's something like 6-8%.
Almost all polling this year assumes 15% at least.
And, no, the youth don't turn out on election day. Election day always sees youth turnout drop because election day is so old.
0.9% of the electorate.
https://x.com/TonerousHyus/status/
2114631139918774480
It's REALLY bad in Alaska, but it's a nice point of reference that...the young don't vote in midterms.
In places like GA and OH, it's something like 6-8%.
Almost all polling this year assumes 15% at least.
And, no, the youth don't turn out on election day. Election day always sees youth turnout drop because election day is so old.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (AutN8)
198
People offer various explanations to validate the polling on the Paxton race. So what about Greg Abbott? Most recent polling I've seen places his race within the margin of error. In 2022, Abbott beat O'Rourke by about 11 points. What explains the current polling on Abbot then (other than the obvious: it's nonsense). He also has a lot of baggage? Not a strong campaigner? (Those are rhetorical questions. Neither is true.)
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket
===
Trump, gas prices, and Iran is what explains it.
I just think there's a real sentiment out there to give Trump a "check" from even right-leaning voters.
All that being said, the rigged polls always have like a 2-3 point deficit to Republicans.
People offer various explanations to validate the polling on the Paxton race. So what about Greg Abbott? Most recent polling I've seen places his race within the margin of error. In 2022, Abbott beat O'Rourke by about 11 points. What explains the current polling on Abbot then (other than the obvious: it's nonsense). He also has a lot of baggage? Not a strong campaigner? (Those are rhetorical questions. Neither is true.)
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket
===
Trump, gas prices, and Iran is what explains it.
I just think there's a real sentiment out there to give Trump a "check" from even right-leaning voters.
All that being said, the rigged polls always have like a 2-3 point deficit to Republicans.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (suGHj)
199
AI aided scams are going to ruin texts as 2FA is coming under attack now.
I don't understand this sentence. Could you elaborate?
I don't understand this sentence. Could you elaborate?
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (9s47C)
200
Just to put things into perspective, some of those very same political betting sites that are projecting a talerico win were paying out on a hillary win in 2016 two weeks before election day.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 26, 2026 11:45 AM (I43vL)
Neither Kalshi or aplymarket were around in 2016.
You’re thinking of one UK betting site that paid Hillary bets early and iirc the deal was the payout was 80% of the full payout if taken early so it was just another bet within the bet.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 26, 2026 11:45 AM (I43vL)
Neither Kalshi or aplymarket were around in 2016.
You’re thinking of one UK betting site that paid Hillary bets early and iirc the deal was the payout was 80% of the full payout if taken early so it was just another bet within the bet.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (N8AvH)
201
To be fair, the AI companies, and the way other companies use AI, are also doing their best to turn everyone against AI...
yep
and the Data Center RE assholes are doing the exact same thing. they're scummy
To be fair, the AI companies, and the way other companies use AI, are also doing their best to turn everyone against AI...
yep
and the Data Center RE assholes are doing the exact same thing. they're scummy
Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (qBivk)
202
Yes, if you trust essentially unregulated betting markets--they have stiffed some people using the fine print to avoid paying out in some cases.
There is that, as well. Even the mob wouldn't stiff people on the numbers: you won, you won. These outfits are pretty sketchy.
There is that, as well. Even the mob wouldn't stiff people on the numbers: you won, you won. These outfits are pretty sketchy.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 11:51 AM (TMNW7)
203
Regardless of outcome, Ohio conservatives are guaranteed disappointment.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (2ap+5)
204
Speculations: 1) This online betting boom has to be a fine gift to money launderers. 2) Many politicians earned significant graft legalizing online betting in their states.
Posted by: gp at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (Jr5Lq)
205
Richard Borcherds, a UC Berkeley professor and Fields medalist, no longer grades his students’ homework.
"After seeing how many of his students used AI to consistently receive top scores, he felt there was 'no point' in paying readers to grade for correctness in homework, as AI use is now unavoidable."
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:49 AM (2ap+5)
Well Mr Fields Medalist maybe you could possibly think of another way to test your students . I know that might be a hard task. /s
"After seeing how many of his students used AI to consistently receive top scores, he felt there was 'no point' in paying readers to grade for correctness in homework, as AI use is now unavoidable."
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:49 AM (2ap+5)
Well Mr Fields Medalist maybe you could possibly think of another way to test your students . I know that might be a hard task. /s
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (Ti9vn)
206
180 In 2018, Cruz vs Beto, the race ended up being under 2 points. And that was against an established incumbent.
So texas has shown it can nearly go full retard.
Posted by: Sharpie
==========
And in Florida Gillum nearly beat DeSantis. Not much is relevant anymore about an election eight years ago in FL or TX. Populations are not the same, voting patterns not the same, demographics are not the same. 2022 is a more likely comparison for that reason and even there, it can be flawed.
So texas has shown it can nearly go full retard.
Posted by: Sharpie
==========
And in Florida Gillum nearly beat DeSantis. Not much is relevant anymore about an election eight years ago in FL or TX. Populations are not the same, voting patterns not the same, demographics are not the same. 2022 is a more likely comparison for that reason and even there, it can be flawed.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (E4rtv)
207
203 Regardless of outcome, Ohio conservatives are guaranteed disappointment.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (2ap+5)
====
DeWine probably personally profited from the importation of Haitians.
I don't think Republicans can get worse than DeWine. The bar is very, very low.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (2ap+5)
====
DeWine probably personally profited from the importation of Haitians.
I don't think Republicans can get worse than DeWine. The bar is very, very low.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (AutN8)
208
But a good recent example of betting markets is Bolsanaro was like at 80% victory on election night in Brazil.
I of course think he did actually win, but there you go.
I of course think he did actually win, but there you go.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (suGHj)
209
All models are wrong.
Some models are useful.
Some models are useful.
Posted by: Quarter Twenty at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (8r0td)
210
I see the communists just openly stole the election in Brazil.
--
Just thinking about how the entire world has been shaped by blatantly stolen elections is terrifying to contemplate. We will never overcome any of this embedded evil, and the trajectory it's taking us on, until the actual people who vote can root out this insane degree of cheating and fraud. I don't know how to do that anymore. There are so many tools in these malevolent cheaters' toolboxes to commit blatant fraud and just get away with it. And it's always coming from the Left. Always.
--
Just thinking about how the entire world has been shaped by blatantly stolen elections is terrifying to contemplate. We will never overcome any of this embedded evil, and the trajectory it's taking us on, until the actual people who vote can root out this insane degree of cheating and fraud. I don't know how to do that anymore. There are so many tools in these malevolent cheaters' toolboxes to commit blatant fraud and just get away with it. And it's always coming from the Left. Always.
Posted by: Lady in Black at October 26, 2026 11:53 AM (qBdHI)
211
And, no, the youth don't turn out on election day. Election day always sees youth turnout drop because election day is so old.
Its easier to blame the Boomers than to take personal responsibility and vote.
Its easier to blame the Boomers than to take personal responsibility and vote.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:53 AM (9s47C)
212
209 All models are wrong.
Some models are useful.
Posted by: Quarter Twenty at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (8r0td)
=======
Quarter Twenty confirmed to be George Box.
Which is impressive since George Box has been dead for decades.
Some models are useful.
Posted by: Quarter Twenty at October 26, 2026 11:52 AM (8r0td)
=======
Quarter Twenty confirmed to be George Box.
Which is impressive since George Box has been dead for decades.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:53 AM (AutN8)
213
Too bad about Brazil. It really is true about not being able to extract a nation from communism/socialism.
Posted by: Dr. Pork Chops & Bacons at October 26, 2026 11:53 AM (g8Ew8)
214
Why can't we have safe, secure and transparent elections like they do in Brazil?
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (n5tGW)
215
I don't understand this sentence. Could you elaborate?"
Two Factor Authentication - such as password + PIN.
Supposedly "AI" has been able to crack this...
Two Factor Authentication - such as password + PIN.
Supposedly "AI" has been able to crack this...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (pfXMo)
216
I sure love those Kalshi ads. I always wonder if someone hit me in the head with a pipe when I see them.
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (BI5O2)
217
In 2018, Cruz vs Beto, the race ended up being under 2 points. And that was against an established incumbent.
So texas has shown it can nearly go full retard.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 11:47 AM
That was because Trump voters were still pi$$ed at cruz for going back on his word to abide by and endorse the ultimate winner of the primary.
cruz got butt hurt that Trump won and refused to endorse him until a few weeks before the election. A whole bunch of republican voters remembered that two years later and refused to vote for cruz.
So texas has shown it can nearly go full retard.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 11:47 AM
That was because Trump voters were still pi$$ed at cruz for going back on his word to abide by and endorse the ultimate winner of the primary.
cruz got butt hurt that Trump won and refused to endorse him until a few weeks before the election. A whole bunch of republican voters remembered that two years later and refused to vote for cruz.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (I43vL)
218
And in Florida Gillum nearly beat DeSantis. Not much is relevant anymore about an election eight years ago in FL or TX. Populations are not the same, voting patterns not the same, demographics are not the same. 2022 is a more likely comparison for that reason and even there, it can be flawed.
I, for one, am still mighty steamed about the Adams v. Jefferson election. I don't expect either one will run for office again.
I, for one, am still mighty steamed about the Adams v. Jefferson election. I don't expect either one will run for office again.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (Riz8t)
219
6 million people changed their mind in a few weeks in Brazil. Sounds legit.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (N8AvH)
220
Regardless of outcome, Ohio conservatives are guaranteed disappointment.
Posted by: Oglebay
Same in SC.
Posted by: Oglebay
Same in SC.
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (r2Icn)
221
213 Too bad about Brazil. It really is true about not being able to extract a nation from communism/socialism.
a bunch of other SA countries were able to do it
it'll come
things are changing
a bunch of other SA countries were able to do it
it'll come
things are changing
Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (qBivk)
Posted by: Tom Brady at October 26, 2026 11:55 AM (+IsEU)
223
204 Speculations: 1) This online betting boom has to be a fine gift to money launderers. 2) Many politicians earned significant graft legalizing online betting in their states.
Posted by: gp
I know these prediction betting sites have their fans here but I predict a short lifespan for them. When you start accepting bets for whether Maduro is forced out or what is on President Trump's speech, you will get insiders trying to benefit over and over again. No different than why the financial markets eventually had to put in regulations and safeguards making insider trading a felony unless you are a Congress critter. And soon enough the bet on everything will destroy sports as well with repeated scandals.
Posted by: gp
I know these prediction betting sites have their fans here but I predict a short lifespan for them. When you start accepting bets for whether Maduro is forced out or what is on President Trump's speech, you will get insiders trying to benefit over and over again. No different than why the financial markets eventually had to put in regulations and safeguards making insider trading a felony unless you are a Congress critter. And soon enough the bet on everything will destroy sports as well with repeated scandals.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 11:55 AM (E4rtv)
224
220 Regardless of outcome, Ohio conservatives are guaranteed disappointment.
Posted by: Oglebay
Same in SC.
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (r2Icn)
========
Nancy Mace isn't going to be governor. There are wins when you look!
Posted by: Oglebay
Same in SC.
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (r2Icn)
========
Nancy Mace isn't going to be governor. There are wins when you look!
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:55 AM (AutN8)
225
My impression of the parties is:
- Democrats think this is like a Presidential Election, because their core base is so engaged.
So their strategy is "Trump is on the ballot," "momentum" and convincing Rs not to vote
- Trump (and Rs) see it as a midterm election where whoever turns out their base, wins.
So their strategy is to turn out the base (who has never waivered from 95%+ approval of Trump)
Key tell on who is right:
65+ is turning out at higher levels than all polls predicted
Under 35 is barely voting.
Just like in every midterm.
- Democrats think this is like a Presidential Election, because their core base is so engaged.
So their strategy is "Trump is on the ballot," "momentum" and convincing Rs not to vote
- Trump (and Rs) see it as a midterm election where whoever turns out their base, wins.
So their strategy is to turn out the base (who has never waivered from 95%+ approval of Trump)
Key tell on who is right:
65+ is turning out at higher levels than all polls predicted
Under 35 is barely voting.
Just like in every midterm.
Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at October 26, 2026 11:55 AM (3cUTc)
226
I don't understand this sentence. Could you elaborate?"
Two Factor Authentication - such as password + PIN.
Supposedly "AI" has been able to crack this...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (pfXMo)
----
Yeah, I had to upgrade my authentication method last week for work. I now have to use a passkey on my phone app.
Two Factor Authentication - such as password + PIN.
Supposedly "AI" has been able to crack this...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (pfXMo)
----
Yeah, I had to upgrade my authentication method last week for work. I now have to use a passkey on my phone app.
Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at October 26, 2026 11:55 AM (FZ29D)
227
Trump, gas prices, and Iran is what explains it.
I just think there's a real sentiment out there to give Trump a "check" from even right-leaning voters.
All that being said, the rigged polls always have like a 2-3 point deficit to Republicans.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (suGHj)
Trump won TX by 14 points two years ago.
He outperformed any statewide pol I'm aware of.
I really doubt that there's been a 14-point swing on Trump in two years here.
I just think there's a real sentiment out there to give Trump a "check" from even right-leaning voters.
All that being said, the rigged polls always have like a 2-3 point deficit to Republicans.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (suGHj)
Trump won TX by 14 points two years ago.
He outperformed any statewide pol I'm aware of.
I really doubt that there's been a 14-point swing on Trump in two years here.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:56 AM (M60gE)
228
Just thinking about how the entire world has been shaped by blatantly stolen elections is terrifying to contemplate.
I wonder if this was known thousands of years ago and that is why almost everywhere was run by strongmen and warlords.
Elections were too easily corrupted, particularly when the whole world was one open-air Zero Trust Society experiment.
The military always had a veto, and as Rome discovered, they used it a lot.
I wonder if this was known thousands of years ago and that is why almost everywhere was run by strongmen and warlords.
Elections were too easily corrupted, particularly when the whole world was one open-air Zero Trust Society experiment.
The military always had a veto, and as Rome discovered, they used it a lot.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:56 AM (9s47C)
229
Why is every single Western country split 50-50? That doesn't seem likely. Very weird.
Posted by: Oglebay at October 26, 2026 11:56 AM (2ap+5)
230
DeWine probably personally profited from the importation of Haitians."
No he didn't!
/DeWine's BiL...
No he didn't!
/DeWine's BiL...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:56 AM (pfXMo)
231
Regardless of outcome, Ohio conservatives are guaranteed disappointment.
--
Yeah. They're either going to get kicked in the mouth, or just have their teeth pulled out by pliers. Neither choice is optimal, but one is order of magnitude worse. And it has to do with pliers.
--
Yeah. They're either going to get kicked in the mouth, or just have their teeth pulled out by pliers. Neither choice is optimal, but one is order of magnitude worse. And it has to do with pliers.
Posted by: Lady in Black at October 26, 2026 11:56 AM (qBdHI)
232
I sure love those Kalshi ads. I always wonder if someone hit me in the head with a pipe when I see them.
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (BI5O2)
Timothee Chalamet at the dentist is a great ad. I don’t know what it is about it but I love it. Maybe it’s the song.
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (BI5O2)
Timothee Chalamet at the dentist is a great ad. I don’t know what it is about it but I love it. Maybe it’s the song.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:56 AM (N8AvH)
233
I, for one, am still mighty steamed about the Adams v. Jefferson election. I don't expect either one will run for office again.
Posted by: Archimedes
=========
Blame the British and French. That is timeless advice.
Posted by: Archimedes
=========
Blame the British and French. That is timeless advice.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 11:56 AM (E4rtv)
234
227 Trump won TX by 14 points two years ago.
He outperformed any statewide pol I'm aware of.
I really doubt that there's been a 14-point swing on Trump in two years here.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:56 AM (M60gE)
========
Unpopular, terrible politicians who pisses of the hard right because he's not pure enough and is just in it for himself Ted Cruz won 2 years ago, too.
By 9 points. 900,000 more votes than Allred, black man who should have activated the black vote in Dallas.
Maybe...Texas is just a red state right now and both parties play it up as close because it's a money machine for both of them?
He outperformed any statewide pol I'm aware of.
I really doubt that there's been a 14-point swing on Trump in two years here.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket at October 26, 2026 11:56 AM (M60gE)
========
Unpopular, terrible politicians who pisses of the hard right because he's not pure enough and is just in it for himself Ted Cruz won 2 years ago, too.
By 9 points. 900,000 more votes than Allred, black man who should have activated the black vote in Dallas.
Maybe...Texas is just a red state right now and both parties play it up as close because it's a money machine for both of them?
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:57 AM (AutN8)
235
Hardest job in America second only to Kamala's speech explainer.
Jon Levine
@LevineJonathan
Abdul El-Sayed's "conservative outreach captain" says "Americans are idiots"
Jon Levine
@LevineJonathan
Abdul El-Sayed's "conservative outreach captain" says "Americans are idiots"
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:57 AM (ndZc7)
236
Trump won TX by 14 points two years ago.
He outperformed any statewide pol I'm aware of.
I really doubt that there's been a 14-point swing on Trump in two years here.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket
Cruz only won by 9 in 2024. Plenty of Trump voters who voted for a Dem for Senator. So the swing is really 9 not 14. Still not easy but more doable than 14.
He outperformed any statewide pol I'm aware of.
I really doubt that there's been a 14-point swing on Trump in two years here.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket
Cruz only won by 9 in 2024. Plenty of Trump voters who voted for a Dem for Senator. So the swing is really 9 not 14. Still not easy but more doable than 14.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:58 AM (N8AvH)
237
>>a bunch of other SA countries were able to do it
>>it'll come
>>things are changing
What would be wild is if some of those countries refused to acknowledge Lula as the elected president.
Anyone notice what happened in Venezuela yesterday? Things are indeed changing.
>>it'll come
>>things are changing
What would be wild is if some of those countries refused to acknowledge Lula as the elected president.
Anyone notice what happened in Venezuela yesterday? Things are indeed changing.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 11:59 AM (viF8m)
238
I gotta bet Gambler's Anonymous is right busy these days.
Posted by: Harry the Horse at October 26, 2026 11:59 AM (EdP2u)
239
236 Cruz only won by 9 in 2024. Plenty of Trump voters who voted for a Dem for Senator. So the swing is really 9 not 14. Still not easy but more doable than 14.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:58 AM (N8AvH)
========
Didn't we just get done talking about how Cruz is an unnaturally terrible politician that no one actually likes and has serious flaws in how he campaigns?
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 11:58 AM (N8AvH)
========
Didn't we just get done talking about how Cruz is an unnaturally terrible politician that no one actually likes and has serious flaws in how he campaigns?
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 11:59 AM (AutN8)
240
The military always had a veto, and as Rome discovered, they used it a lot."
Yep.
We're truly the odd ducks in world history...
Yep.
We're truly the odd ducks in world history...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:59 AM (pfXMo)
241
Two Factor Authentication - such as password + PIN.
Technically, that is not 2FA.
2FA requires: Pick two, not the same one twice.
• What you know (password, PIN)
• What you have (mobile device, Yubikey, etc.)
• What you are (biometrics)
For mobile devices that require biometric that is MFA one from each category
Technically, that is not 2FA.
2FA requires: Pick two, not the same one twice.
• What you know (password, PIN)
• What you have (mobile device, Yubikey, etc.)
• What you are (biometrics)
For mobile devices that require biometric that is MFA one from each category
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 11:59 AM (pawvM)
242
But gambling apps, sports booking, and sports leagues all keep people interested and earn the leagues money. They openly and blatantly advertise FOR GAMBLING during the games and even on the field.
_____
Hometown team NFL radio announcers are saying things like "That last touchdown drive was brought to you by CrapShootGambleWin!, download the app to your phone today!" Really adds confidence to the game being decided by the players and not anything else.
_____
Hometown team NFL radio announcers are saying things like "That last touchdown drive was brought to you by CrapShootGambleWin!, download the app to your phone today!" Really adds confidence to the game being decided by the players and not anything else.
Posted by: Chuck Martel at October 26, 2026 11:59 AM (Dv3i1)
243
cruz got butt hurt that Trump won and refused to endorse him until a few weeks before the election. A whole bunch of republican voters remembered that two years later and refused to vote for cruz.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (I43vL)
I know he was supposed to just suck it up but I think Trump implying his father was part of the Kennedy assassination was crossing the line for Cruz. Trump crossed the line for me more than once in the 2016 election but I still voted against his opponent. I wish I had another chance to vote for him. Trump 2.0 has been great.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 26, 2026 11:54 AM (I43vL)
I know he was supposed to just suck it up but I think Trump implying his father was part of the Kennedy assassination was crossing the line for Cruz. Trump crossed the line for me more than once in the 2016 election but I still voted against his opponent. I wish I had another chance to vote for him. Trump 2.0 has been great.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 11:59 AM (Ti9vn)
244
Same in SC.
--
I'm being blanketed by Annie Andrews ads with the laughable "I've always been a Republican, but now..." in favor of voting for this Democrat.
One in particular makes me laugh because the "concerned" woman in the ad says she's voting for Andrews to "save my babies."
Whatever that's supposed to mean.
--
I'm being blanketed by Annie Andrews ads with the laughable "I've always been a Republican, but now..." in favor of voting for this Democrat.
One in particular makes me laugh because the "concerned" woman in the ad says she's voting for Andrews to "save my babies."
Whatever that's supposed to mean.
Posted by: Lady in Black at October 26, 2026 11:59 AM (qBdHI)
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 12:00 PM (Riz8t)
246
I really doubt that there's been a 14-point swing on Trump in two years here.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket
===
I wish it were that simple, but it really comes down to lower turnout of the type of voters Trump had last time and like 4-5% moving away from Trump. Plus just Paxton not being a great candidate, pissed off GOPe Cornyn/Bush voters, etc.
I do think Paxton pulls it off, but it's not crazy at all to think he doesn't.
Trump won Texas in 2016 comfortably than saw Ted Cruz win a squeaker in 2018.
Posted by: it puts the lotion in the basket
===
I wish it were that simple, but it really comes down to lower turnout of the type of voters Trump had last time and like 4-5% moving away from Trump. Plus just Paxton not being a great candidate, pissed off GOPe Cornyn/Bush voters, etc.
I do think Paxton pulls it off, but it's not crazy at all to think he doesn't.
Trump won Texas in 2016 comfortably than saw Ted Cruz win a squeaker in 2018.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 12:00 PM (suGHj)
247
This is the problem with “influencer” society. I’m unsure why individuals are swayed by “influencers “. Being from upstate New York, I’m suspicious of trends. I believe the skepticism is related to mistrust of downstaters. Their belief that sophistication is a product of urban culture. It’s not that we can’t comprehend opera and art, it’s a matter of taste. If one has to acquire “taste” it seems false; therefore unauthentic. IOW, do you actually believe that it’s good. I’d rather just find it pleasing.
Posted by: Unkaren at October 26, 2026 12:00 PM (m6fGY)
248
“Didn't we just get done talking about how Cruz is an unnaturally terrible politician that no one actually likes and has serious flaws in how he campaigns?”
So like Paxton.
So like Paxton.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 12:00 PM (N8AvH)
249
That's TV. One of the media reports (I know, I know...) was quoted "more than half of all FBS schools have .... significant dips in physical crowds..."
Ticket sales =/= crowds.
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (pfXMo)
-------
This is because Ticketmaster/SeatGeek have completely ruined the ticket sales market by not stopping bot farms from buying up all of the retail tickets the nanosecond they go on sale, just to turn around and scalp them for exhorbitant prices.
The tickets get "Sold," but a lot of the seats go empty because nobody can afford to buy them on the secondary market. Lower bowl seats for a C-tier NFL matchup start at four digits. Nosebleeds are still 300+.
Ticket sales =/= crowds.
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 11:50 AM (pfXMo)
-------
This is because Ticketmaster/SeatGeek have completely ruined the ticket sales market by not stopping bot farms from buying up all of the retail tickets the nanosecond they go on sale, just to turn around and scalp them for exhorbitant prices.
The tickets get "Sold," but a lot of the seats go empty because nobody can afford to buy them on the secondary market. Lower bowl seats for a C-tier NFL matchup start at four digits. Nosebleeds are still 300+.
Posted by: ballistic at October 26, 2026 12:00 PM (oqH4h)
250
Abdul El-Sayed's "conservative outreach captain" says "Americans are idiots"
___
*looks at No-Kings protestors*
He may have a point.
___
*looks at No-Kings protestors*
He may have a point.
Posted by: Chuck Martel at October 26, 2026 12:01 PM (Dv3i1)
251
Fortunately we only have to wait another week for the real poll answer. Or the official poll answer, I should say. Who knows what the real citizen vote is.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 26, 2026 12:01 PM (n5tGW)
252
Jon Levine
@LevineJonathan
Abdul El-Sayed's "conservative outreach captain" says "Americans are idiots"
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:57 AM (ndZc7)
Outreach!
@LevineJonathan
Abdul El-Sayed's "conservative outreach captain" says "Americans are idiots"
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:57 AM (ndZc7)
Outreach!
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 26, 2026 12:01 PM (r2Icn)
253
Didn't we just get done talking about how Cruz is an unnaturally terrible politician that no one actually likes and has serious flaws in how he campaigns?
Cruz isn't a "unnaturally terrible politician" he is one who just mails it in and has no idea what time it is.
Cruz isn't a "unnaturally terrible politician" he is one who just mails it in and has no idea what time it is.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 12:01 PM (pawvM)
254
Fortunately we only have to wait another week for the real poll answer
-
Or in California 8 weeks.
-
Or in California 8 weeks.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 12:01 PM (N8AvH)
255
The crowds that came out to meet her were enormous.
>>Venezuela’s Machado returns from exile to crowds of cheering supporters
https://tinyurl.com/4szfc4t2
>>Venezuela’s Machado returns from exile to crowds of cheering supporters
https://tinyurl.com/4szfc4t2
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 12:02 PM (viF8m)
256
248 “Didn't we just get done talking about how Cruz is an unnaturally terrible politician that no one actually likes and has serious flaws in how he campaigns?”
So like Paxton.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 12:00 PM (N8AvH)
========
So, with turnout driving up because the Democrats successfully nationalized the election, as shown with early voting so far, and Talarico being a worse candidate with Allred who appeals far less to black voters and even pissed off black voters (Crockett still hasn't endorsed him and black turnout is the one part of the state noticeably down in South Dallas), Paxton should win similarly to Cruz, at least.
So like Paxton.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 12:00 PM (N8AvH)
========
So, with turnout driving up because the Democrats successfully nationalized the election, as shown with early voting so far, and Talarico being a worse candidate with Allred who appeals far less to black voters and even pissed off black voters (Crockett still hasn't endorsed him and black turnout is the one part of the state noticeably down in South Dallas), Paxton should win similarly to Cruz, at least.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 12:02 PM (AutN8)
257
Didn't we just get done talking about how Cruz is an unnaturally terrible politician that no one actually likes and has serious flaws in how he campaigns?
Posted by: TheJamesMadison
==
He's an unlikable "know it all type", but still shocked actual conservative voters care so much about "personality" to vote for a leftist like Beto. Especially against an established incumbent.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison
==
He's an unlikable "know it all type", but still shocked actual conservative voters care so much about "personality" to vote for a leftist like Beto. Especially against an established incumbent.
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 12:02 PM (suGHj)
258
I don't understand this sentence. Could you elaborate?
Posted by: Community Notes
2 Factor Authentication--the usual is to either send a text to a phone or send an email to confirm logins. Scammers using AI can now sound like a friendly customer rep on the phone from a credit card issuer and then tell them they will send a link to their phone to resolve an issue via text. Same via email. And voila, cracked. There is also man in the middle attacks on SMS texting and some email providers. Neither consistently apply end to end encryption.
And all the consumer websites are run by cheap ass IT execs that view security is optional, especially that of end users. We are going to have to transition to hard physical keys or some such and with quantum computing, even encryption may not work well in the future.
But just like the olden days, simply reverting to paper can obliterate a lot of security issues and taking those mission critical systems that have to rely on computers off the internet at the expense of convenience.
Posted by: Community Notes
2 Factor Authentication--the usual is to either send a text to a phone or send an email to confirm logins. Scammers using AI can now sound like a friendly customer rep on the phone from a credit card issuer and then tell them they will send a link to their phone to resolve an issue via text. Same via email. And voila, cracked. There is also man in the middle attacks on SMS texting and some email providers. Neither consistently apply end to end encryption.
And all the consumer websites are run by cheap ass IT execs that view security is optional, especially that of end users. We are going to have to transition to hard physical keys or some such and with quantum computing, even encryption may not work well in the future.
But just like the olden days, simply reverting to paper can obliterate a lot of security issues and taking those mission critical systems that have to rely on computers off the internet at the expense of convenience.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 12:02 PM (E4rtv)
259
My prediction is that NFC East is a dog shit division. Also, the Chargers will likely win two games this year. Things are looking up.
Posted by: Pudinhead at October 26, 2026 12:02 PM (Wp1X1)
260
Texas was a Blue state as recent as 1994 . The Left hoped to change it back immigration.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 12:02 PM (Ti9vn)
261
• What you know (password, PIN)
• What you have (mobile device, Yubikey, etc.)
• What you are (biometrics)"
Which is funny, because once those bits are stored on the phone, what is the "2nd" factor?
You either have the same password for everything, or have your OS store the one it created for you... and your fingerprint.
Brilliant, no?
• What you have (mobile device, Yubikey, etc.)
• What you are (biometrics)"
Which is funny, because once those bits are stored on the phone, what is the "2nd" factor?
You either have the same password for everything, or have your OS store the one it created for you... and your fingerprint.
Brilliant, no?
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 12:03 PM (pfXMo)
Posted by: Hobie Doyle at October 26, 2026 12:03 PM (+IsEU)
263
253 Didn't we just get done talking about how Cruz is an unnaturally terrible politician that no one actually likes and has serious flaws in how he campaigns?
Cruz isn't a "unnaturally terrible politician" he is one who just mails it in and has no idea what time it is.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 12:01 PM (pawvM)
========
And Paxton is actually one of the most popular Republicans with Republicans in Texas because of how he's been AG in the state, picking fights (and winning a lot of them) with the left.
He beat George P. Bush in the Texas primary for AG in 2022, in the middle of the anti-Paxton controversies picking up, by about 40 points.
Cruz isn't a "unnaturally terrible politician" he is one who just mails it in and has no idea what time it is.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 12:01 PM (pawvM)
========
And Paxton is actually one of the most popular Republicans with Republicans in Texas because of how he's been AG in the state, picking fights (and winning a lot of them) with the left.
He beat George P. Bush in the Texas primary for AG in 2022, in the middle of the anti-Paxton controversies picking up, by about 40 points.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 12:03 PM (AutN8)
264
Paxton isn't a good politician or campaigner. I voted for him but meh.
Posted by: ballistic at October 26, 2026 12:03 PM (oqH4h)
265
Weird how every Dem media poll has the Florida governors race as a tie, meanwhile most others show Donald’s comfortably ahead. It’s almost like polls are a Dem op, because you know, people will totally support his former Republican turned Democrat opponent. Lololol.
Posted by: That Guy at October 26, 2026 12:04 PM (3s43i)
266
Alas I haven't been keeping up on Brazilian political trends for a long time, and too busy and lazy to dig into the data now coming out of the electoral commission. Both candidates increased their vote totals, but there was a pronounced increase for the loathsome Lula in the southeast. Which strikes me as odd to start, but that could be my not keeping up. Also Bolsonaro's margins in the south seem slimmer than they should be.
Bolsonaro's called for annulment of the election due to the last-second (improperly executed) voting extension. No idea if that's a mechanical option under existing law.
Pretty sure Brazil hasn't changed much in terms of some fundamentals since I followed it closely, and spent a lot of time there. Regional and class divisions are beyond anything we are used to up here.
Bolsonaro's called for annulment of the election due to the last-second (improperly executed) voting extension. No idea if that's a mechanical option under existing law.
Pretty sure Brazil hasn't changed much in terms of some fundamentals since I followed it closely, and spent a lot of time there. Regional and class divisions are beyond anything we are used to up here.
Posted by: rhomboid at October 26, 2026 12:04 PM (U/Byj)
267
I do think Paxton pulls it off,
You can just go ahead and put a period at the end of that sentence.
You can just go ahead and put a period at the end of that sentence.
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 12:04 PM (pawvM)
268
So like Paxton.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez
Unlike Cruz, Paxton has won statewide races consistently even after his shampeachment. Winning 70-30 in a primary is a pretty clear indication that Cruz=Paxton is apples and oranges.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez
Unlike Cruz, Paxton has won statewide races consistently even after his shampeachment. Winning 70-30 in a primary is a pretty clear indication that Cruz=Paxton is apples and oranges.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 12:04 PM (E4rtv)
269
Making friends wherever they go.
Salvadoran president says “God will grant us victory” over satanic Haitian gangs who kidnapped technicians
Salvadoran president says “God will grant us victory” over satanic Haitian gangs who kidnapped technicians
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 12:04 PM (ndZc7)
270
Texas was a Blue state as recent as 1994 . The Left hoped to change it back immigration.
Posted by: polynikes
===
But it was a "blue dog" Democrat type state like much of the south where it was conservative voters that had not yet figured out their party was now firmly a left-wing party controlled by "yankees".
Posted by: polynikes
===
But it was a "blue dog" Democrat type state like much of the south where it was conservative voters that had not yet figured out their party was now firmly a left-wing party controlled by "yankees".
Posted by: Sharpie at October 26, 2026 12:04 PM (suGHj)
271
268 Unlike Cruz, Paxton has won statewide races consistently even after his shampeachment. Winning 70-30 in a primary is a pretty clear indication that Cruz=Paxton is apples and oranges.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 12:04 PM (E4rtv)
=========
Against an actual Bush.
While the Bush machine was building up the impeachment case against Paxton.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 12:04 PM (E4rtv)
=========
Against an actual Bush.
While the Bush machine was building up the impeachment case against Paxton.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 12:04 PM (AutN8)
272
Ted Cruz has a personality problem.
He also hates his job at Senator and only uses that role as a platform to bump his podcasting engagement and help him generate easy content by posting his sick burnz as a eunuch on whatever committees he serves.
Yeah, he was really proud about some horseshit he did around college sports but not a peep about the SAVE act.
He also hates his job at Senator and only uses that role as a platform to bump his podcasting engagement and help him generate easy content by posting his sick burnz as a eunuch on whatever committees he serves.
Yeah, he was really proud about some horseshit he did around college sports but not a peep about the SAVE act.
Posted by: Richard Cranium at October 26, 2026 12:05 PM (OrBXc)
273
I’m unsure why individuals are swayed by “influencers “
This. I don't get it. At all.
Right up there with "reaction" vids...
This. I don't get it. At all.
Right up there with "reaction" vids...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 12:05 PM (pfXMo)
274
Abdul El-Sayed's "conservative outreach captain" says "Americans are idiots"
___
*looks at No-Kings protestors*
He may have a point.
Posted by: Chuck Martel at October 26, 2026 12:01 PM
*looks at Kamala Harris voters*
Ayuh.
___
*looks at No-Kings protestors*
He may have a point.
Posted by: Chuck Martel at October 26, 2026 12:01 PM
*looks at Kamala Harris voters*
Ayuh.
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 26, 2026 12:05 PM (bFu5X)
275
266 Alas I haven't been keeping up on Brazilian political trends for a long time, and too busy and lazy to dig into the data now coming out of the electoral commission. Both candidates increased their vote totals, but there was a pronounced increase for the loathsome Lula in the southeast. Which strikes me as odd to start, but that could be my not keeping up. Also Bolsonaro's margins in the south seem slimmer than they should be.
Bolsonaro's called for annulment of the election due to the last-second (improperly executed) voting extension. No idea if that's a mechanical option under existing law.
Pretty sure Brazil hasn't changed much in terms of some fundamentals since I followed it closely, and spent a lot of time there. Regional and class divisions are beyond anything we are used to up here.
Posted by: rhomboid
=======
Opposition has supermajority in legislature and can impeach and remove Lula. After this stunt, highly likely.
Bolsonaro's called for annulment of the election due to the last-second (improperly executed) voting extension. No idea if that's a mechanical option under existing law.
Pretty sure Brazil hasn't changed much in terms of some fundamentals since I followed it closely, and spent a lot of time there. Regional and class divisions are beyond anything we are used to up here.
Posted by: rhomboid
=======
Opposition has supermajority in legislature and can impeach and remove Lula. After this stunt, highly likely.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 12:05 PM (E4rtv)
276
My prediction is that NFC East is a dog shit division. Also, the Chargers will likely win two games this year. Things are looking up.
Posted by: Pudinhead
That dog will lay a big pile tonight.
Posted by: Pudinhead
That dog will lay a big pile tonight.
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 26, 2026 12:05 PM (r2Icn)
277
Which is funny, because once those bits are stored on the phone, what is the "2nd" factor?
You either have the same password for everything, or have your OS store the one it created for you... and your fingerprint.
Brilliant, no?
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 12:03 PM (pfXMo)
------
Stored biometrics and passkeys are still a second factor. The entire concept around this type of security is called Zero Trust Access (ZTA), if you want to take a foray into learning how the architecture works at a high level.
You either have the same password for everything, or have your OS store the one it created for you... and your fingerprint.
Brilliant, no?
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 12:03 PM (pfXMo)
------
Stored biometrics and passkeys are still a second factor. The entire concept around this type of security is called Zero Trust Access (ZTA), if you want to take a foray into learning how the architecture works at a high level.
Posted by: ballistic at October 26, 2026 12:06 PM (oqH4h)
278
>>I wish it were that simple, but it really comes down to lower turnout of the type of voters Trump had last time and like 4-5% moving away from Trump. Plus just Paxton not being a great candidate, pissed off GOPe Cornyn/Bush voters, etc.
Reports I've seen from Texas is that turnout in traditionally Republican areas is up.
Reports I've seen from Texas is that turnout in traditionally Republican areas is up.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2026 12:06 PM (viF8m)
279
273 I’m unsure why individuals are swayed by “influencers “
This. I don't get it. At all.
Right up there with "reaction" vids...
Posted by: man
=======
Millennials and perhaps Gen Z women (which appear more jaundiced about it) and their addiction to 'reality tv' programming shit. Living online is a stupid idea.
This. I don't get it. At all.
Right up there with "reaction" vids...
Posted by: man
=======
Millennials and perhaps Gen Z women (which appear more jaundiced about it) and their addiction to 'reality tv' programming shit. Living online is a stupid idea.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (E4rtv)
280
I'm not you understand a prediction market.
Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (XOmY9)
281
, if you want to take a foray into learning how the architecture works at a high level."
I'm aware of how it's supposed to work...
I'm aware of how it's supposed to work...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (pfXMo)
282
272 Yeah, he was really proud about some horseshit he did around college sports but not a peep about the SAVE act.
Posted by: Richard Cranium at October 26, 2026 12:05 PM (OrBXc)
=======
https://x.com/DerrickEvans4WV/status/
2034008527266816092
https://x.com/TSH3_/status/
2019507081251049678
https://x.com/5dme81/status/
2082958887087472653
https://x.com/DerrickEvans4WV/status/
2021937133796368844
Posted by: Richard Cranium at October 26, 2026 12:05 PM (OrBXc)
=======
https://x.com/DerrickEvans4WV/status/
2034008527266816092
https://x.com/TSH3_/status/
2019507081251049678
https://x.com/5dme81/status/
2082958887087472653
https://x.com/DerrickEvans4WV/status/
2021937133796368844
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, precisely framed and deadpan with Wes Anderson at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (AutN8)
283
Cruz is one of the biggest proposals of the Save Act and argues that the bill is a common-sense measure to protect election integrity, prevent noncitizen voting, and rebuild public confidence in elections. He has pushed Senate Republicans to use procedural tools—such as forcing a talking filibuster—to overcome Democratic opposition.
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (Ti9vn)
284
Ted Cruz has the personality of a jizz sock.
Posted by: ballistic at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (oqH4h)
285
Would that itwere so simple.
Posted by: Hobie Doyle at October 26, 2026 12:03 PM
"Would that it were...would that it were."
- John F. Kerry
Posted by: Hobie Doyle at October 26, 2026 12:03 PM
"Would that it were...would that it were."
- John F. Kerry
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (bFu5X)
286
Back when Britain was Great:
An oldie but a goodie. In 1968 a bunch of entitled hippy bastards sent a letter detailing their specious demands to the Warden and Fellows of Wadham College, Oxford. This was their letter of reply, which speaks to how far the academy has since fallen.
https://tinyurl.com/55mxwem9
An oldie but a goodie. In 1968 a bunch of entitled hippy bastards sent a letter detailing their specious demands to the Warden and Fellows of Wadham College, Oxford. This was their letter of reply, which speaks to how far the academy has since fallen.
https://tinyurl.com/55mxwem9
Posted by: Archimedes at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (Riz8t)
287
You can call Texas formerly “blue” just like you can call the south former slave states.
Give me a break. The reasons why Texas was blue was due to long forgotten values the Democrats used to have. It ain’t that party anymore and the native citizens aren’t going back. Also the influx of Californians ain’t gonna change that.
There is zero chance Paxton loses. Zero, no matter what the McChimp Bush family says.
Give me a break. The reasons why Texas was blue was due to long forgotten values the Democrats used to have. It ain’t that party anymore and the native citizens aren’t going back. Also the influx of Californians ain’t gonna change that.
There is zero chance Paxton loses. Zero, no matter what the McChimp Bush family says.
Posted by: That Guy at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (3s43i)
288
Nood
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 26, 2026 12:08 PM (r2Icn)
289
The GOP has finally overtaken (this morning) the Dem-Comms in Florida early voting, but lag significantly behind where they were in 2022 and 2024. GET OUT AND VOTE DAMMIT.
Posted by: Vilano Man at October 26, 2026 12:08 PM (Ovx+P)
290
You either have the same password for everything, or have your OS store the one it created for you... and your fingerprint.
Biometrics are stored as digital templates - a form of a hash. That is, you can create a hash from your fingerprint, but not a fingerprint from your hash.
So logging in to a VPN from a laptop would request a username/password/PIN then coordinate with your mobile device for a code match, and the code-match is authenticated within an application that requires a biometric or additional password to be completed.
There is your MFA
Biometrics are stored as digital templates - a form of a hash. That is, you can create a hash from your fingerprint, but not a fingerprint from your hash.
So logging in to a VPN from a laptop would request a username/password/PIN then coordinate with your mobile device for a code match, and the code-match is authenticated within an application that requires a biometric or additional password to be completed.
There is your MFA
Posted by: Community Notes at October 26, 2026 12:08 PM (pawvM)
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2026 12:08 PM (Ti9vn)
292
What I want to know is what happened to all the Pussy Hats?
Posted by: Pudinhead at October 26, 2026 12:08 PM (Wp1X1)
293
There is that, as well. Even the mob wouldn't stiff people on the numbers: you won, you won. These outfits are pretty sketchy.
Eventually, some aggrieved nutcase finds a brick and mortar affiliate. Hopefully, you don’t work there on the wrong day.
Eventually, some aggrieved nutcase finds a brick and mortar affiliate. Hopefully, you don’t work there on the wrong day.
Posted by: Unkaren at October 26, 2026 12:08 PM (m6fGY)
294
Nood. Brazil.
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 26, 2026 12:08 PM (bFu5X)
295
I'm aware of how it's supposed to work...
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (pfXMo)
-----
So then you know that it's technically at least 3-factor. Your password, your biometric, and your verified trusted device. It's better than you're giving it credit for and pretty much the best thing going right now.
Posted by: man at October 26, 2026 12:07 PM (pfXMo)
-----
So then you know that it's technically at least 3-factor. Your password, your biometric, and your verified trusted device. It's better than you're giving it credit for and pretty much the best thing going right now.
Posted by: ballistic at October 26, 2026 12:09 PM (oqH4h)
296
278 >>I wish it were that simple, but it really comes down to lower turnout of the type of voters Trump had last time and like 4-5% moving away from Trump. Plus just Paxton not being a great candidate, pissed off GOPe Cornyn/Bush voters, etc.
Reports I've seen from Texas is that turnout in traditionally Republican areas is up.
Posted by: JackStraw
EV is much greater than 2022 in red counties and depressed in blue areas. Blacks so far are not coming out for Talafreako for whatever reason. We have a week left of EV and then election day but Democrats this year seem to have a surge on the first day or two in Early Voting and Vote By Mail and then receding while GOP turnout as far as we can tell, is steady on and building.
Reports I've seen from Texas is that turnout in traditionally Republican areas is up.
Posted by: JackStraw
EV is much greater than 2022 in red counties and depressed in blue areas. Blacks so far are not coming out for Talafreako for whatever reason. We have a week left of EV and then election day but Democrats this year seem to have a surge on the first day or two in Early Voting and Vote By Mail and then receding while GOP turnout as far as we can tell, is steady on and building.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 12:10 PM (E4rtv)
297
For all the pontificating people do about who will vote for whom and why a lot of just comes down to coin flipping by LIVs. Today they like Trump tomorrow they hate him and will vote for a Democrat. And then love him again 2 years later.
It makes no sense but it’s what elections come down to.
It makes no sense but it’s what elections come down to.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez at October 26, 2026 12:11 PM (N8AvH)
298
A modest proposal: ban all forms of on-line gambling, including prediction markets and sports books. Gambling is a vice. Move it back into the underworld where it belongs. Make it illegal for Americans to transfer money to foreign entities for the purpose of gambling.
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 26, 2026 12:11 PM (hg8Lt)
299
In our little town of 12k in Texas...we voted at 2pm on the second day of voting last week. One of the clerks said the count was about 80% of the typical turnout for the entire count.
Posted by: DanMan at October 26, 2026 12:12 PM (8uzBS)
300
This is because Ticketmaster/SeatGeek have completely ruined the ticket sales market by not stopping bot farms from buying up all of the retail tickets the nanosecond they go on sale, just to turn around and scalp them for exhorbitant prices.
The tickets get "Sold," but a lot of the seats go empty because nobody can afford to buy them on the secondary market. Lower bowl seats for a C-tier NFL matchup start at four digits. Nosebleeds are still 300+.
Posted by: ballistic
=====
Perfect price discrimination can work in the short run to maximize revenue as conceptually you capture all the surplus by making each ticket on the basis of willingness to pay but kills the golden goose in the long run.
Entertainment is a good that is readily substituted and once someone loses the habit of sportsball, rare if ever that they come back. Ditto for movies, ditto for a lot of other entertainment options.
The tickets get "Sold," but a lot of the seats go empty because nobody can afford to buy them on the secondary market. Lower bowl seats for a C-tier NFL matchup start at four digits. Nosebleeds are still 300+.
Posted by: ballistic
=====
Perfect price discrimination can work in the short run to maximize revenue as conceptually you capture all the surplus by making each ticket on the basis of willingness to pay but kills the golden goose in the long run.
Entertainment is a good that is readily substituted and once someone loses the habit of sportsball, rare if ever that they come back. Ditto for movies, ditto for a lot of other entertainment options.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 12:14 PM (E4rtv)
301
LA looks like it's going to jettison Bass for a marxist retard.
Other than that, it's all a crapshoot.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at October 26, 2026 11:12 AM (XV/Pl)
L.A.: wart, out; carbuncle, in. OK, then.
Other than that, it's all a crapshoot.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at October 26, 2026 11:12 AM (XV/Pl)
L.A.: wart, out; carbuncle, in. OK, then.
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 26, 2026 12:17 PM (hg8Lt)
302
297 For all the pontificating people do about who will vote for whom and why a lot of just comes down to coin flipping by LIVs. Today they like Trump tomorrow they hate him and will vote for a Democrat. And then love him again 2 years later.
It makes no sense but it’s what elections come down to.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez
=======
It doesn't actually work that way. Plenty of research on the topic if interested. But for a short intro, lookup the LA Times polling in 2016--they used a panel of people and surveyed the same panel throughout the election period. And got the winner right. True independents are a very small slice of the electorate--most are partisan leaners. So midterms are more like trying to get the leaners for your side to the polls and discouraging the leaners on the other side from the polls. Leaners are also correlated strongly with lower propensity voters. Ideologues are high propensity voters.
Discouragement FUD is aimed at leaners btw.
True indys, less than 5-8 percent often do not vote and it is a coin flip for them generally resulting in a null effect except in wave elections.
It makes no sense but it’s what elections come down to.
Posted by: Sandy Cocazio Ortez
=======
It doesn't actually work that way. Plenty of research on the topic if interested. But for a short intro, lookup the LA Times polling in 2016--they used a panel of people and surveyed the same panel throughout the election period. And got the winner right. True independents are a very small slice of the electorate--most are partisan leaners. So midterms are more like trying to get the leaners for your side to the polls and discouraging the leaners on the other side from the polls. Leaners are also correlated strongly with lower propensity voters. Ideologues are high propensity voters.
Discouragement FUD is aimed at leaners btw.
True indys, less than 5-8 percent often do not vote and it is a coin flip for them generally resulting in a null effect except in wave elections.
Posted by: whig at October 26, 2026 12:18 PM (E4rtv)
303
Blacks so far are not coming out for Talafreako for whatever reason.
Because he comes across not only as queer but the whitest white dude you ever whited, and promotes craps black people consider awful and sick.
Because he comes across not only as queer but the whitest white dude you ever whited, and promotes craps black people consider awful and sick.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 26, 2026 12:19 PM (TMNW7)
304
Three men from the Dominican Republic are begging to be rescued from Russia, where they claimed they were lured by false promises of jobs — and then sent to the battlefield in the war with Ukraine.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (ndZc7)
They got jobs. What are they bitching about?
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Where's My Cookie? at October 26, 2026 11:39 AM (ndZc7)
They got jobs. What are they bitching about?
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 26, 2026 12:33 PM (hg8Lt)
305
Tex Maine double, Dems to win Senate, and Republicans to gain Senate seats.
Posted by: MikeN at October 26, 2026 12:55 PM (GDw8p)
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