What to Expect [Dave_in

What to Expect [Dave_in_Fla]

Disclaimer: The following analysis accounts for cheating that occurred in 2020. But, I can't predict Maduro style cheating, where the results are simply ignored.

***
As we approach November 5th, there is an election scenario that is firming up as the most likely result. I personally view the following as 80% likely to be the final result:

Trump wins the popular vote by 1%
Trump wins 312 Electoral Votes

There are several factors that go into this, but at the end of the day the 312 EV win is still the most likely result, even if there are shifts in demographics or Harris were to win the popular vote by 1 or 2%.

When looking at the electoral map, and considering the swings states, there are three "groupings" to keep in mind.

1) Arizona and Nevada have similar Hispanic demographics, but Nevada is considerably more working class. Nevada is unlikely to vote for Trump at a lower rate in this key demographic that is trending hard toward Trump.
2) Georgia and North Carolina vote similarly, with North Carolina polling to the left of Georgia but voting to the right. If Trump wins Georgia, he will also win North Carolina.
3) Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have voted together in every election since 1960, except in 1988 when Wisconsin voted for Dukakis. There are strong demographic similarities between the three states that make it unlikely they will vote in different directions in a given election.

With Trump's strong polling in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it is highly likely that he will win all of the swing states.

I could spend a lot of time explaining why, but the overall reason is that Trump is over performing 2016 and 2020 in every demographic group. The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter.

This means that the only scenario where Harris can win is if Trump voters don't show up at the polls, and it is a very low turnout election. In this scenario, Harris would have a very narrow path of winning with 270 EVs by holding NE-2, and the three blue wall states.

There is another scenario shown by the map below that is about equally likely to a Harris win, where Trump exceeds current indicated performance and wins unexpected states. If that happens, then the first state to fall is Maine-state, followed by Virginia. Depending on how specific demographics perform (e.g. Hispanics in NM or Norwegians in MN) there is roughly an equal chance New Mexico, Minnesota, and New Hampshire could vote for Trump. This puts his ceiling at 347 EVs.

This analysis is based on the 2020 voting results and assumes that Biden legitimately received 81M votes. Trends in registrations, absentee ballot requests, ballot returns, and early voting are not favoring Harris. There are ~3 million first time Democrat voters from 2020 that are missing. They did not request and return an absentee ballot. Harris's only hope is that they really do exist, and they are going to vote on election day. And even if they did, she is still likely to lose.

Posted by: Open Blogger at 11:00 AM

Comments

(Jump to bottom of comments)

1 1

Posted by: Skip at October 22, 2024 11:00 AM (K63Rm)

2 And dutifully called em

Posted by: Skip at October 22, 2024 11:01 AM (K63Rm)

3 This means that the only scenario where Harris can win is if Trump voters don't show up at the polls, and it is a very low turnout election. In this scenario, Harris would have a very narrow path of winning with 270 EVs by holding NE-2, and the three blue wall states.

=======

Which is the opposite of what we're seeing in early vote numbers.

R's aren't overperforming.

D's are underperforming.

Which tells me that D's numbers in 2020 were...not genuine.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:01 AM (GBKbO)

4 Red Wisconsin!!

Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead at October 22, 2024 11:01 AM (SfhV1)

5 Tim Walz and Kamala eat corn on the cob vertically.

That's just weird.

Posted by: Stateless at October 22, 2024 11:02 AM (jvJvP)

6 Ya Dave! Who patiently explained this to me live and in person! Woot!

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:02 AM (p4NUW)

7 There are ~3 million first time Democrat voters from 2020 that are missing. They did not request and return an absentee ballot. Harris's only hope is that they really do exist, and they are going to vote on election day. And even if they did, she is still likely to lose.

========

They all became Republican, moved to FL, and will write in Nikki Haley, bro.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:02 AM (GBKbO)

8
I think I'm going to steer clear of this thread. It's likely to generate more heat than light.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at October 22, 2024 11:02 AM (EsZUh)

9 Lot different looking map than 2020, eh?

Posted by: tubal at October 22, 2024 11:03 AM (PCK5/)

10 First thought Pa and Ohio were very close to voting
And not sure I believe anything out of 2p20

Posted by: Skip at October 22, 2024 11:03 AM (K63Rm)

11 1%?

This Country is gone

Posted by: Gonzotx at October 22, 2024 11:03 AM (YjECI)

12 I honestly do not think this race is close at all. Trump is above the margin of error in many key states. It's the margin of fraud I worry about.

Posted by: RickZ at October 22, 2024 11:04 AM (gKDq2)

13 Hola

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:04 AM (lLEp5)

14 I think I'm going to steer clear of this thread. It's likely to generate more heat than light.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh

There are always fish puns and boob talk.

Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at October 22, 2024 11:04 AM (v6JzV)

15 Or. . . . the results in swing states are unknown for days, even weeks after election day, and - get this! - they all break for Kamala thanks to "found"/absentee/overseas votes.

Posted by: Lizzy at October 22, 2024 11:04 AM (scDBq)

16 Last night I read somewhere that "As goes Kenosha, goes Wisconsin." I realized that I, myself, could be the key to this whole election.

Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead at October 22, 2024 11:04 AM (SfhV1)

17 The 3 million Democrat voters might be imagination but the Marxists slipped in 3 million ballots for them

Posted by: Skip at October 22, 2024 11:04 AM (K63Rm)

18 312 seems to be a growing consensus.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:04 AM (LkLld)

19 The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter.

Those people are NOT highly educated, they are fucking stupid, but highly indoctrinated.

Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:05 AM (pohLc)

20 I get the pessimism, after recent events. But that attitude can become debilitating in a lot of ways.

Posted by: tubal at October 22, 2024 11:05 AM (PCK5/)

21 the highly educated white voter.

No, the highly credentialed voter.

Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (SfhV1)

22 I like that second map morer.

Posted by: BignJames at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (Yj6Os)

23
You might want to recalculate your figures because...

Breaking News!

The very mort hollywood celery, Carrie Fisher, has just endorsed malaka harris! Well, kinda. You see, ex-celery and current low-T beta cuck twitter-addict Mark Hamill used his "friend" Carrie Fisher's birthday as an excuse to tweet that "for those wondering" Carrie Fisher would definitely vote for harris.

Posted by: Soothie at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (yqpK/)

24 Dave in Florida, is this your post?

Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (pohLc)

25 Unless they play their cheat scenario, and you know they will.

Posted by: The Man from Athens at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (DuPJZ)

26 FIRST!!!!!

Posted by: Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (tjClK)

27 I honestly do not think this race is close at all. Trump is above the margin of error in many key states. It's the margin of fraud I worry about.
Posted by: RickZ at October 22, 2024 11:04 AM (gKDq2)

I read on Newsmax today that Harris is up in 5 swing states

I wanted to vomit

Posted by: Gonzotx at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (YjECI)

28 Last night I read somewhere that "As goes Kenosha, goes Wisconsin." I realized that I, myself, could be the key to this whole election.
Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead at October 22, 2024

***
Hannity keeps exhorting us to get out and vote as if our own personal vote will be the one to decide the election. If enough R voters see it that way, and Ds don't . . .

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (J2vNu)

29 It truly was a pleasure meeting you, sir.

Posted by: Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (tjClK)

30 I think the bigger question now is how many Senate seats the GOP can flip in the blue wall states.

Posted by: Mark1971 at October 22, 2024 11:07 AM (NZnln)

31 The very mort hollywood celery, Carrie Fisher, has just endorsed malaka harris! Well, kinda. You see, ex-celery and current low-T beta cuck twitter-addict Mark Hamill used his "friend" Carrie Fisher's birthday as an excuse to tweet that "for those wondering" Carrie Fisher would definitely vote for harris.

Posted by: Soothie at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (yqpK/)

Her CGI voted absentee.

Posted by: Zombie Robbo the Llama Butcher at October 22, 2024 11:07 AM (LxER7)

32 Messina argued Trump has shown what he will do after the election by filing various lawsuits in battleground states that target early voting and voter rolls.

“That is a precursor to what they are going to do after the election. They are going to try to set up a way to steal this election to get some of these crazy cases to their favorite United States Supreme Court,” Messina said.

... I fully expect role reversal in this election from 2020. The Democrats will be all over the courts running into the same "no standing" arguments the Republicans faced in 2020, or magically find sympathetic judges who will grant standing, then quickly overruled by higher courts.

Posted by: SMOD at October 22, 2024 11:07 AM (RHGPo)

33 Willowed:

Steve Hodel, the retired LA cop who researched the Black Dahlia murder and is convinced his own father was the murderer, has some fascinating speculation about Man Ray's friendship with his father, and his possible knowledge of the crime.

Here's an article about Hodel's book on the Black Dahlia.

https://tinyurl.com/4rrucecb

Posted by: Paco at October 22, 2024 10:49 AM (njExo)

I've read Hodel's stuff. I'm not very convinced. All his 'evidence' really comes down to -

1. His father was briefly a Dahlia suspect.
2. His father carried a photo of a woman in his wallet who resembles the Dahlia.

Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing (aka Eloquent Depression) at October 22, 2024 11:07 AM (Q0kLU)

34
A few years ago, both Meathead Reiner and his cunt sister used their father Carl's corpse to "endorse" Democrats in the midterms.

Posted by: Soothie at October 22, 2024 11:08 AM (yqpK/)

35 In the "what to expect"... I don't recall the left so blatantly lying in their political ads in previous years.

Usually it was either innuendo or implications, not straight up lies like "TRUMP WILL END SOCIAL SECURITY!!"

Am I just misremembering or has the left just completely embraced the lies this year?

Posted by: Formerly Virginian at October 22, 2024 11:08 AM (N1DT3)

36 Hi Piper 😊

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:08 AM (lLEp5)

37 Thanks for putting this out there, Dave.

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 22, 2024 11:08 AM (i24o9)

38 The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter.
*
Those people are NOT highly educated, they are fucking stupid, but highly indoctrinated.
Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024

***
I came to realize that when they all fell hard for the Coof scam, face diaper hoax, and clot shot orders.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 11:08 AM (J2vNu)

39 I can believe this.

I can also believe this and the Democrats will litigate a win anyway. The race is likely going to be decided in a courtroom, not at the ballot box.

That's the frustrating part.

Posted by: Martini Farmer at October 22, 2024 11:08 AM (Q4IgG)

40 From your lips, to God's ears.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:08 AM (uxCna)

41 We could perhaps all agree that the hatred and mistrust will grow after the election, no matter the outcome. The Great Unraveling.

Posted by: tubal at October 22, 2024 11:09 AM (PCK5/)

42 I think the Dems are sacrificing Kamala for stronger candidates in future elections, which would include random coke cans on the side of the road. There is no other explanation for her campaign and Tim Walz.

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:09 AM (p4NUW)

43 32 Messina argued Trump has shown what he will do after the election by filing various lawsuits in battleground states that target early voting and voter rolls.

“That is a precursor to what they are going to do after the election. They are going to try to set up a way to steal this election to get some of these crazy cases to their favorite United States Supreme Court,” Messina said.

... I fully expect role reversal in this election from 2020. The Democrats will be all over the courts running into the same "no standing" arguments the Republicans faced in 2020, or magically find sympathetic judges who will grant standing, then quickly overruled by higher courts.
Posted by: SMOD at October 22, 2024 11:07 AM (RHGPo)

========

"We definitely have 106% registered voters compared to over 18-year olds, and any assertion otherwise is worse than the Holocaust."
-Michigan's counties

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:09 AM (GBKbO)

44
We really need to ease up on the premature victory laps. We haven't won a damn thing yet

Posted by: Soothie at October 22, 2024 11:09 AM (yqpK/)

45 Just saw this. [Not an editorial comment on my part.]

Rasmussen Reports @Rasmussen_Poll 2h
A majority (55%) of Democrats think the cheat is coming. They are joined by 58% of Independents and 83% of Republicans.

We have been featuring these issues since the 2020 selection so they should be no surprise to anyone.

Please consider sharing?

https://is.gd/fAP3dv
chart

Scott Adams @ScottAdamsSays 1h
The great awakening

Posted by: andycanuck (hovnC) at October 22, 2024 11:09 AM (hovnC)

46 Hey Dave, thanks for the post

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, Vote but also buy ammo at October 22, 2024 11:10 AM (xcxpd)

47 Early voting in VA doesn't appear to be going well for Democrats and it is an utter disaster for the Dems in Nevada.

Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:10 AM (i7Q7S)

48 MN for Trump? Now that's a hot take.

Posted by: WisRich at October 22, 2024 11:10 AM (G0vdT)

49
Here's hoping. I think we've got a decent chance for Virginia, myself. North Carolina scares me. Not because I think Trump is behind, but because I think the post-hurricane chaos is ripe for treachery.

Posted by: American Hawkman at October 22, 2024 11:10 AM (9VDxG)

50 Mollie @MZHemingway 11h
The Washington Post's latest poll says Harris is winning Wisconsin by 2. That may be, but please never ever forget that their final 2020 poll said Biden was winning Wisconsin by 17. Yes, by SEVENTEEN POINTS. (He won by 0.7 points) So by that scale, Harris could be losing by 14.

Posted by: andycanuck (hovnC) at October 22, 2024 11:10 AM (hovnC)

51 I could spend a lot of time explaining why, but the overall reason is that Trump is over performing 2016 and 2020 in every demographic group. The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter.

The problem I have with this analysis is that if Trump is overperforming and/or Harris is underperforming with several demographics (as we are constantly told), then this race should not be especially close at the national level, not within the margin of error. So in much the same way that Newtonian physics and quantum mechanics don't sync up, neither does the data about over- and underperformance and the national polling. Something's wrong.

Posted by: Napkin Analysis at October 22, 2024 11:10 AM (nVALX)

52 45 Just saw this. [Not an editorial comment on my part.]

Rasmussen Reports @Rasmussen_Poll 2h
A majority (55%) of Democrats think the cheat is coming. They are joined by 58% of Independents and 83% of Republicans.

Posted by: andycanuck (hovnC) at October 22, 2024 11:09 AM (hovnC)

========

I'm sure those Democrats are thinking that the cheat will be, "Republicans won't allow last second ballot box stuffing of batches of ballots that are 95-5 Harris in exactly the same amount 4 times in a row, which means they're suppressing votes!"

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:10 AM (GBKbO)

53 McDonald's-gate!

The New York Times@nytimes
"He doesn’t seem to know how to do it."
After Donald Trump served fast food during a campaign stop at a McDonald’s, several actual McDonald’s workers who examined a video of his performance earned mixed reviews from workers and patrons alike.
The box is, like, backwards,' Mr. Ye said with some bewilderment, as Mr. Trump shoveled a scoopful of fries the wrong way into the iconic red carton. 'He doesn’t seem to know how to do it.'

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (L/fGl)

54 I'd love to see tons of well armed people show up and protect any voting place that shuts down on election night.

I was up with most of you and remember Trump ahead in several states by tens of thousands before all the poll workers got tired and statistical miracles happened....

Posted by: Stateless at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (jvJvP)

55 51 The problem I have with this analysis is that if Trump is overperforming and/or Harris is underperforming with several demographics (as we are constantly told), then this race should not be especially close at the national level, not within the margin of error. So in much the same way that Newtonian physics and quantum mechanics don't sync up, neither does the data about over- and underperformance and the national polling. Something's wrong.
Posted by: Napkin Analysis at October 22, 2024 11:10 AM (nVALX)

========

What has polling done in the last decade to indicate to you that it's accurate this time?

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (GBKbO)

56 Last night I read somewhere that "As goes Kenosha, goes Wisconsin." I realized that I, myself, could be the key to this whole election.
Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead

No pressure or anything, but we're counting on you.

Posted by: Oddbob at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (/y8xj)

57

Right Now: the president is at a latino roundtable summit in Florida.

El Roundo Summito Tablita

Posted by: Soothie at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (yqpK/)

58 Sponge - it was an absolute delight to meet you finally 😊

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (lLEp5)

59 . . . Those people are NOT highly educated, they are fucking stupid, but highly indoctrinated.
Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024

***
I came to realize that when they all fell hard for the Coof scam, face diaper hoax, and clot shot orders.
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024

***
And in a lot cases, this extends to people who say proudly, "I think for myself; nobody tells me what to think!" Then you find they watch PMSNBC and the Commie News Network, read the New York Slimes, and listen to National Propaganda Radio.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (J2vNu)

60 In 2020, there were over 60 election lawsuits immediately after the election. Most were dismissed on lack of standing. Only one got anywhere near an evidentiary hearing.
Only 3 lawsuits were brought with Donald Trump as a plaintiff.

Posted by: SMOD at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (RHGPo)

61 Frankly I'll be stunned if Harris wins 49% of the popular vote. Manufactured ballots, maybe. But votes? She's not popular except with college """educated""" women.

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, Vote but also buy ammo at October 22, 2024 11:12 AM (xcxpd)

62 #twoweeks..

Posted by: tubal at October 22, 2024 11:12 AM (PCK5/)

63 John's dying words were a heartfelt plea to vote for Kamala Harris in 2024.

Now, please excuse me, I have funeral details to attend to as well as a fitting for new widow's weeds.

Posted by: Cindy McCain at October 22, 2024 11:12 AM (Aqu9a)

64 "I think the bigger question now is how many Senate seats the GOP can flip in the blue wall states."

=========

Cook Political Report moved PA Senate race from 'Lean Democratic' to "Toss Up" last night.

Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:12 AM (i7Q7S)

65 The problem I have with this analysis is that if Trump is overperforming and/or Harris is underperforming with several demographics (as we are constantly told), then this race should not be especially close at the national level, not within the margin of error. So in much the same way that Newtonian physics and quantum mechanics don't sync up, neither does the data about over- and underperformance and the national polling. Something's wrong.
Posted by: Napkin Analysis at October 22, 2024 11:10 AM (nVALX)

When you consider that public polls have consistently undercoutned Trump's support by at least 4%, it's not actually that close. My guess is that the actual state of the race right now is Tump 53 Harris 46.

Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (wyMQY)

66 58 Sponge - it was an absolute delight to meet you finally 😊
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (lLEp5)

So it was a....first?

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, Vote but also buy ammo at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (xcxpd)

67 59 . . . Those people are NOT highly educated, they are fucking stupid, but highly indoctrinated.
Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024

========

And the polling on them has proven...unreliable.

As it has with almost all crosstabs in polls.

The highly educated voter tends to actually vote for Trump several points more than they poll. Generally it seems to be a white people problem more than anything else. Most of the polling misses are around how white people are being over represented by childless cat ladies in polling surveys, it seems.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (GBKbO)

68 Woot, thanks, Dave! I treasure our discussion on this topic in TX.

Next year, I'll try to stick to guns, cooking or random IT stuff.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (tT6L1)

69 Sounds more like Messalina!

Posted by: andycanuck (hovnC) at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (hovnC)

70 It's the margin of fraud I worry about.

I won't say I am 'worried' about the margin of fraud. I expect it to be enormous and blatantly in-your-face. Look at the Dems and RINOs coming out publicly saying that 'we' won't know the result of the election for days or even weeks. To me, that is the pretext for millions upon millions of 'found' and 'delayed' votes.

And as someone said in the Morning Report thread, the $64 dollar question is - what will people do when Kamala is proclaimed the winner? I know what I think will happen.

But I won't clog up the thread with my depression. See you all later.

Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing (aka Eloquent Depression) at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (Q0kLU)

71 The box is, like, backwards,' Mr. Ye said with some bewilderment, as Mr. Trump shoveled a scoopful of fries the wrong way into the iconic red carton. 'He doesn’t seem to know how to do it.'

Well damn. He'll never make Assistant Manager like that, will he?

Posted by: Oddbob at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (/y8xj)

72 39 I can believe this.

I can also believe this and the Democrats will litigate a win anyway. The race is likely going to be decided in a courtroom, not at the ballot box.

That's the frustrating part.
Posted by: Martini Farmer at

That requires courts to hear the cases, which we learned is not a given. I will say this - those pulling whatever strings that are being pulled better understand a release valve is needed. The courts could be one, if they are actually fair. This is what scares me the most in our current climate - I don’t want things irretrievably broken and we are so very close to this point.

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (p4NUW)

73 McDonald's-gate!

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (L/fGl)

AND TWO SCOOPS!!!

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (i24o9)

74 Every time I see such a map, I see blue Colorado over blue New Mexico sticking up in a sea of red like a raised middle finger.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (L/fGl)

75 Leftards save the biggest lies for themselves.

Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (pohLc)

76 There are always fish puns and boob talk.
Do fish have boobs?
I've heard the expression "fish tits".

Posted by: Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (PvM3F)

77 This means that the only scenario where Harris can win is if Trump voters don't show up at the polls, and it is a very low turnout election.

Based on the lines at the NoVa polls yesterday, low turnout will not be a problem.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:14 AM (xCA6C)

78 NEW POLL: Trump leads Latinos by 11 points nationally.

Posted by: rhennigantx at October 22, 2024 11:14 AM (gbOdA)

79 Adding to the "how do they know who you early voted for" answer:
In TX, each morning the candidates (well, their county rep) get a list from the county clerk.
A huge spreadsheet that not only shows you voted but lists out all the times you voted in like the last 10 years.
Which incudes all the primaries you voted in.
So, if you have 2+ votes in the R primary, you'll probably get marked as an "R" vote this time too.

My hope is, the Trump campaign is banking a lot of the newly registered voters in this early voting.
Sorta voters hidden from the Dems because they haven't voted before.

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at October 22, 2024 11:14 AM (6miZe)

80 Last night I read somewhere that "As goes Kenosha, goes Wisconsin." I realized that I, myself, could be the key to this whole election.
Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead

No pressure or anything, but we're counting on you.
Posted by: Oddbob at October 22, 2024 11:11 AM (/y8xj)

The lives of everyone on this blog depend on finding that one person to vote in Kenosha. Good luck, we're all . .. ALL . . . counting on you.

Posted by: Dr. Rumack at October 22, 2024 11:14 AM (Aqu9a)

81 "The box is, like, backwards,' Mr. Ye said with some bewilderment, as Mr. Trump shoveled a scoopful of fries the wrong way into the iconic red carton."

======

Does this genius know you can simply turn the box around?

Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:14 AM (i7Q7S)

82 Keep that kind of talk off this blog or you will be banned [CBD]

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, Vote but also buy ammo at October 22, 2024 11:14 AM (xcxpd)

83 Hardly matters in the grand total, but New Hampshire is voting for Harris, not Trump.

More serious is North Carolina. Trump himself professes no concern, because he thinks the state will get ballots into the hands of all who want to vote, and he goes on to say "survival matters more" anyway, but just for the sake of this exercise, I wonder if the hurricane aftermath turns NC blue, since so many GOP votes are in the counties most impacted by the hurricane.

Posted by: Huck Follywood at October 22, 2024 11:15 AM (vZwRf)

84 Somehow I can't see Minnesota going red. Sorry.

Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead at October 22, 2024 11:15 AM (SfhV1)

85 The box is, like, backwards,' Mr. Ye said with some bewilderment, as Mr. Trump shoveled a scoopful of fries the wrong way into the iconic red carton. 'He doesn’t seem to know how to do it.'

IMPEACH HIM! Doing a fast food job wrong is a felony since yesterday!!!

The media is getting more desperate than an Only Fans girl turning 30 tomorrow.

Posted by: NR Pax at October 22, 2024 11:15 AM (99eI0)

86 76 There are always fish puns and boob talk.
Do fish have boobs?
I've heard the expression "fish tits".
Posted by: Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (PvM3F)

I hear there's as cold as tits

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, Vote but also buy ammo at October 22, 2024 11:15 AM (xcxpd)

87 The game the Dems are playing at the behest of the DS is to completely delegitimize the election process.

One of the big problems that we have is that out election process wasn't designed to be auditable. It just kind of evolved in 50 different threads.

Posted by: pawn at October 22, 2024 11:15 AM (QB+5g)

88 I can see Virginia going red since Youngkin has cleaned up the voter rolls and - I believe since 2012 - Virginia Democrats cannot cheat this year. New Hampshire, though, as far as I know, still has same day voter registration which allows for rampant cheating. It cost Trump and Ayotte their elections in New Hampshire in 2016.

Posted by: JTSmith at October 22, 2024 11:15 AM (Fa2n4)

89 I think Dave in Fla mentioned, when we chatted, the left is now a victim of their own BS, in that they somehow now believe Joe legitimately won the 2020 election.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:15 AM (tT6L1)

90 From your keyboard to God's ears, Dave.

Posted by: bluebell at October 22, 2024 11:15 AM (79pEw)

91 The problem I have with this analysis is that if Trump is overperforming and/or Harris is underperforming with several demographics (as we are constantly told), then this race should not be especially close at the national level

----
Over performing against the official 2020 results, which were Biden +4.

Trump +5 nationally is fully consistent.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:16 AM (lLEp5)

92 GA

Just 28% of men back Harris’ campaign, compared with a whopping 59% who support Trump, a metric that contributes heavily to the former president’s 47% to 43% lead overall.

Posted by: rhennigantx at October 22, 2024 11:16 AM (gbOdA)

93 There is one good sign in early voting for Democrats:

Wayne County in Michigan. Detroit.

They are requesting a lot and returning a lot. Much higher than any other urban center in American.

Outside of that, early voting looks to be a fucking disaster for them.

FL is going to be a repeat of 2022. Trump's going to win it by at least 15.

GA is going to be much closer to 2016 than 2020.

VA is actually trending to be a Trump victory (reports of Kamala moving campaign personnel from GA to VA this morning, actually).

WI is looking much redder than 2020.

It will have to be last second ballot box stuffing to undo this.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:16 AM (GBKbO)

94 "highly educated white voter"
--------

And we use the term loosely.

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:16 AM (hmOfI)

95 @EricLDaugh
HELP. It's an actual bloodbath down here in Florida.

Click through and see the actual early voting results. Yes, Florida is more red than most states but Republican voters aren't any different in other states which is why it's time to stop looking at media polls and look at the early votes.

https://tinyurl.com/efryktrp

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:16 AM (LkLld)

96 Do fish have boobs?
I've heard the expression "fish tits".
Posted by: Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle at October 22, 2024

***
I'd like to know where that expression comes from, since fish are not mammals. Or is it a reverse comparison, like saying "fine as frogs' hair'?

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 11:16 AM (J2vNu)

97 The one remaining October surprise is that it is extremely likely that a major conflict between Iran and Israel will erupt within the next two weeks, as Israel retaliates for the Iranian missile strike.

I think this hurts Harris, since Trump will be able to unequivocally support Israel, and Harris will not.

I'm sure Biden/Harris are begging Bibi to hold off the strike until after the election, but after Biden/Harris' people leaked a portion of the Israeli attack plans to the Iranians, I suspect that Bibi is not in a mood to listen.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:17 AM (uxCna)

98 74 Every time I see such a map, I see blue Colorado over blue New Mexico sticking up in a sea of red like a raised middle finger.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (L/fGl)

Corruption works where it's tolerated. The Dems literally stole Colorado and bragged about it.

They did the same in WA state. Now both are locked up by the dirty commies.

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, Vote but also buy ammo at October 22, 2024 11:17 AM (xcxpd)

99 What a big beautiful incredible terrific map. The best map you’ve ever seen. You wouldn’t believe this map how incredible it is.

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 11:17 AM (ekupY)

100 "The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter."

I detect a contradiction... VDH would call them stupid educated people.

Posted by: gourmand du jour at October 22, 2024 11:17 AM (MeG8a)

101 New Mexico ??? That is very optimistic..

Posted by: runner at October 22, 2024 11:17 AM (V13WU)

102 53 The box is, like, backwards,' Mr. Ye said with some bewilderment, as Mr. Trump shoveled a scoopful of fries the wrong way into the iconic red carton. 'He doesn’t seem to know how to do it.'
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024

Training dept is at fault! They need to do better! Teach, show, allow for demonstration of knowledge, wash, rinse, repeat.

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:17 AM (p4NUW)

103 83 Hardly matters in the grand total, but New Hampshire is voting for Harris, not Trump.

More serious is North Carolina. Trump himself professes no concern, because he thinks the state will get ballots into the hands of all who want to vote, and he goes on to say "survival matters more" anyway, but just for the sake of this exercise, I wonder if the hurricane aftermath turns NC blue, since so many GOP votes are in the counties most impacted by the hurricane.
Posted by: Huck Follywood at October 22, 2024 11:15 AM (vZwRf)

========

No.

NC is going to go red pretty hard. The hurricane isn't going to affect too much. In fact, it could end up making the state more red by pissing off every rural county within 100 miles (including in VA, GA, and TN) that the feds under Biden/Harris don't give a shit about them.

Plus, all the voting reforms over the past 2 years, including voter ID.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:18 AM (GBKbO)

104
Are you fuckingshitting me, New York Times?

I've opened many a McDonalds cheeseburger wrappers and found no sign of cheese and/or burger pattie.

50% of "seasoned" and "trained" McDonalds employees are utterly incompetent.

Posted by: Soothie at October 22, 2024 11:18 AM (yqpK/)

105 "This analysis is based on the 2020 voting results and assumes that Biden legitimately received 81M votes. Trends in registrations, absentee ballot requests, ballot returns, and early voting are not favoring Harris. There are ~3 million first time Democrat voters from 2020 that are missing. They did not request and return an absentee ballot."

this gives me a LOT of hope.

and hopefully a lot of JOY too...

Posted by: SturmToddler at October 22, 2024 11:18 AM (nXhwP)

106 Theory: People Think NPR Is Left-Wing Because of Its Prominent Arts Coverage

-
Oh, is that why?

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:19 AM (L/fGl)

107 Trump has no future as a short-order cook...

Posted by: runner at October 22, 2024 11:19 AM (V13WU)

108 If Kamala was halfway competent, I would be really, really scared. I don't even think the powers that be want her.

Posted by: rickb223 Gold & Silver Spot Prices at October 22, 2024 11:19 AM (fzdyS)

109 95 @EricLDaugh
HELP. It's an actual bloodbath down here in Florida.

Click through and see the actual early voting results. Yes, Florida is more red than most states but Republican voters aren't any different in other states which is why it's time to stop looking at media polls and look at the early votes.

https://tinyurl.com/efryktrp
Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:16 AM (LkLld)

========

Trump won FL in 2020 by 3.5.

He's going to win by 15-20.

Firing Brenda Sykes and governing conservatively did Republicans well. DeSantis painted the path forward for every Republican governor in America.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:19 AM (GBKbO)

110 I worked at a McDonalds one summer in college. I would rather pissant iron in the oil patch.

Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:19 AM (pohLc)

111 I just read that Kamala Harris is the more masculine version of Justin Trudeau.

Posted by: Northernlurker , wondering where his phone is at October 22, 2024 11:19 AM (ax3wI)

112 I think Trump will win, both officially and otherwise, but I vowed in 2011 that I would not take any analysis seriously that gives PA to the R.

The ONLY reason Trump won PA in 2016 was because WI came in and it didn't matter. They were 100% going to pull a 2020 there to the point where even Hillary or her surrogate said something like "stay tuned" when it was obvious she was done. What did they mean? It meant they had the means and opportunity to "flip" PA. They refused to call it for hours when she was losing by more than the vote that was left to count.

In this case maybe PA won't matter again but it is owned and operated by fraud and I stand by that.

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:20 AM (hmOfI)

113 50% of "seasoned" and "trained" McDonalds employees are utterly incompetent.
Posted by: Soothie at October 22, 2024

***
The food is more seasoned than the employees are.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 11:20 AM (J2vNu)

114 >>Somehow I can't see Minnesota going red. Sorry.

In 2016 Hilary beat Trump by 1.6%. Polls had her winning in a walk.

I agree it will be a stretch but not out of the question.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:20 AM (LkLld)

115 This analysis is based on the 2020 voting results and assumes that Biden legitimately received 81M votes.

Who do you like in the upcoming WrestleMania? Less rigging going on there, so I'm going to be placing some large bets.

Posted by: t-bird at October 22, 2024 11:20 AM (4SKzt)

116 36 Hi Piper 😊
Posted by: Dave in Fla

Hola! I didn’t even get to ask you to make me feel better about this today! You just dove right in and anticipated the request.

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:20 AM (p4NUW)

117 Trump has no future as a short-order cook...
Posted by: runner at October 22, 2024 11:19 AM (V13WU)

I bet he could learn the lingo.

Posted by: Count de Monet at October 22, 2024 11:20 AM (Aqu9a)

118 VA was a lot closer than anyone thought in 2016. I could see that being in play again this year and an outside shot at Tru o winning it.

Given the NoVa cheat, Trump would need landslide like numbers to overcome it.make it happen. Anything is possible but I’m not holding my. Breath.

I’m as happy with a 270-268 win. Actually it would be even better stick the knife in for the left knowing they came oh so close .

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 11:21 AM (ekupY)

119 Trump has no future as a short-order cook...
Posted by: runner at October 22, 2024 1

***
Fortunately he has a few more resources to fall back on.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 11:21 AM (J2vNu)

120 @EricLDaugh
HELP. It's an actual bloodbath down here in Florida.

Click through and see the actual early voting results. Yes, Florida is more red than most states but Republican voters aren't any different in other states which is why it's time to stop looking at media polls and look at the early votes.

https://tinyurl.com/efryktrp
Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:16 AM (LkLld)

But DU told me just last week they were flipping FL easily

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:21 AM (CIS44)

121 I just saw a Tweet that said there are 180,000 newly registered Amish voters in PA. Sounds incredible.

Posted by: Notsothoreau at October 22, 2024 11:21 AM (gfViB)

122 I agree it will be a stretch but not out of the question.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:20 AM (LkLld)

Do not underestimate the dumb Skandi vote.

Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead at October 22, 2024 11:21 AM (SfhV1)

123 I want to believe, but then I remember the 2020 predictions around here.

I just assume Trump will win and then they steal it (again, probably).

Posted by: Gaff at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (EqzMw)

124 "The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter."

I HAVE A MASTERS DEGREE IN SOCIOLOGY, YOU PEASANTS!

DEFER TO MY EXPERTISE!

Posted by: Typical AWFL! at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (uxCna)

125 This analysis is based on the 2020 voting results and assumes that Biden legitimately received 81M votes.
---
That's a thought I had the other day:
Let's assume 2020 was legitimate in every way.

Then why is Harris, in every state and poll, behind where Biden was at this point in 2020?
If 2020, was on the up-and-up, how come none of those voters--who we were assured were massively motivated by such pure hatred of Trump--not showing up in 2024?
Trump is still on the ticket. The VP you voted for in 2020 is on the ticket, but ... you're not voting this year?

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (6miZe)

126 If Harris had worked at that McDonald's she would have tried to fire everyone.

Posted by: Northernlurker , wondering where his phone is at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (ax3wI)

127 106 Theory: People Think NPR Is Left-Wing Because of Its Prominent Arts Coverage

-
Oh, is that why?
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:19 AM (L/fGl)

Well joke is on them, because we have prominent art coverage here and no one accuses us of being left wing.

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (p4NUW)

128 It will have to be last second ballot box stuffing to undo this.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:16 AM (GBKbO)

The trusty Buick stands ready.

Posted by: BignJames at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (Yj6Os)

129 120 But DU told me just last week they were flipping FL easily
Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:21 AM (CIS44)

========

And since DU really believed it, that meant we had to take it as possible since we're all in bubbles, y'all!

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (GBKbO)

130 The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter.

Those people are NOT highly educated, they are fucking stupid, but highly indoctrinated.

I know two very highly educated women who acknowledge that Harris is utterly unqualified, and yet can't bring themselves to vote for Trump. There's just a disconnect in the logic portion ofn the brain.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (xCA6C)

131 Trump should go to the Amish country and help them build a barn.

Posted by: Mark1971 at October 22, 2024 11:23 AM (NZnln)

132 Red Wisconsin!!
Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead at October 22, 2024 11:01 AM (SfhV1)

I wonder how Ralph Malph will vote.

Posted by: spindrift at October 22, 2024 11:23 AM (OguvZ)

133 If Harris had worked at that McDonald's she would have tried to fire everyone.
Posted by: Northernlurker , wondering where his phone is at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (ax3wI)
-------------

Nope, she would have berated all of her co-workers until they quit then the MacDonalds would have closed due to all of the "adverse workplace" litigation.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:23 AM (tT6L1)

134 I still think the fuckers are gonna steal it.

Posted by: M. Gaga at October 22, 2024 11:23 AM (lCGs9)

135 Dave, while I have you here, lol, I'd like to ask a question about returns on election night.

In 2020, I had the official Virginia election site up on my computer, and was watching Fox. Polls in VA closed at 7:00, and at 7:03 Fox called Virginia for Biden. Meanwhile, the official site had little to no returns in yet.

Do the news stations somehow get results before the states themselves? They didn't call other obviously deep blue states that early.

I've been wondering for four years about this.

Posted by: bluebell at October 22, 2024 11:23 AM (79pEw)

136 Well joke is on them, because we have prominent art coverage here and no one accuses us of being left wing.
Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (p4NUW)

In fairness, our prominent coverage is "where are the boobs?" and "YES! boobs!"

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:23 AM (CIS44)

137 8
I think I'm going to steer clear of this thread. It's likely to generate more heat than light.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh

Likewise I'm not a stir the pot kind of guy, but I'm so old I remember Dave from the sunshine state saying adamantly that Trump would never, never, NEVER (that's three nevers) have a path to 270. Seems that was just about, oh, four years ago.

In fact, I kinda thought Dave wasn't seen much around these parts for a few years after that.

Now don't get me wrong. I wanna believe. I really do.

But what has changed? Did the loss of a small piece of ear tissue serve to upend the entire electoral map?

Posted by: Quarter Twenty at October 22, 2024 11:24 AM (VfYIb)

138 I HAVE A MASTERS DEGREE IN ~~SOCIOLOGY~~ GENERAL STUDIES, YOU PEASANTS!

DEFER TO MY EXPERTISE!
Posted by: Typical AWFL! at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (uxCna)

Posted by: BignJames at October 22, 2024 11:24 AM (Yj6Os)

139 121 I just saw a Tweet that said there are 180,000 newly registered Amish voters in PA. Sounds incredible.
Posted by: Notsothoreau at October 22, 2024 11:21 AM (gfViB)

That’s seems, as the kids would says, sus.
Are there even 180k Amish people in PA, let alone new voters?

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 11:24 AM (ekupY)

140 Some are trying to make the election a referendum o abortion. A citizen initiated petition proposing a change to the state constitution is on the ballot in CO

Colorado Ballot proposition 79

"Shall there be a change to the Colorado constitution recognizing the right to abortion, and, in connection therewith, prohibiting the state and local governments from denying, impeding, or discriminating against the exercise of that right, allowing abortion to be a covered service under health insurance plans for Colorado state and local government employees and for enrollees in state and local governmental insurance programs?"

Not only do they want to enshrine it in the constitution as a sacred right (or should I say rite?), they want to make it mandatory for state and local entities to pay for it.

It needs 55% YES votes to pass. It will probably get 60%. I hope I am wrong.

Posted by: muldoon at October 22, 2024 11:24 AM (uCfKO)

141 The GOP is putting forth a huge GOTV effort, something they've lacked the last few election cycles. It matters.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:24 AM (tT6L1)

142 Even though there is no way in hades my state is going to anyone but Trump, I promise to vote anyway.

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (p4NUW)

143 Do the news stations somehow get results before the states themselves? They didn't call other obviously deep blue states that early.

I've been wondering for four years about this.
Posted by: blue

My personal guess is exiting polling, vs the actual count.

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (CIS44)

144 "There are ~3 million first time Democrat voters from 2020 that are missing. They did not request and return an absentee ballot."

Missing? What, are they not dead anymore?

Posted by: Ripley at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (GUOwU)

145 ** the sound of thousands of moron zippers being unzipped***
NOT YET YOU DUMBASSES

Posted by: Proprietor's nick here at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (B23BQ)

146 Piper - You had that "please cheer me up" look 😂

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (lLEp5)

147 >>Do not underestimate the dumb Skandi vote.

Never. I worked for a Minnesota based company for 9 years.

As cynical as we all tend to be, and for good reason, it's impossible to deny what we are seeing with our own eyes. Trump sold out his Madison Garden event in 3 hours. In the heart of Darkness, Manhattan.

This kind of thing is happening everywhere and there is zero enthusiasm or momentum for Harris. They can't even fake it.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (LkLld)

148 135 Do the news stations somehow get results before the states themselves? They didn't call other obviously deep blue states that early.

I've been wondering for four years about this.
Posted by: bluebell at October 22, 2024 11:23 AM (79pEw)

========

Networks call safe races the second they close. There's no need to wait for counts most of the time.

Sometimes, they look at bellweather counties and can determine things quickly like that, but that usually takes at least a quarter of an hour.

I wouldn't expect anyone to wait for anything to call Massachusetts for example.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (GBKbO)

149 Our prominent are includes a nekkid lardass on an ottoman, you can't get more arty than that.

Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (pohLc)

150 The race isn't close.

Yet, the finish isn't clear.

Posted by: The Central Scrutinizer at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (KbCG3)

151 Madison Square Garden

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (LkLld)

152 The box is, like, backwards,' Mr. Ye said with some bewilderment, as Mr. Trump shoveled a scoopful of fries the wrong way into the iconic red carton. 'He doesn’t seem to know how to do it.'
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks

I'm sorry. They didn't teach "do you want fries with that?" at Wharton. They only taught "how to buy the whole corporation".

Posted by: rickb223 Gold & Silver Spot Prices at October 22, 2024 11:26 AM (fzdyS)

153 Still burned by "unskew the polls."
Still wounded by "shy Trump voters."
And doubtful of the "polls tighten closer to the Election."

And the "red wave" that turned into a puddle splash.

There's so much bullshit and fuckery the Dems get away with ....

But, I want to believe

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at October 22, 2024 11:26 AM (6miZe)

154 I am, literally, praying that Virginia goes for Trump even though it's a long shot. Fairfax and Arlington counties, adjacent to DC, might as well be considered adjuncts to f'ing Red China and they have the population numbers. I hope the Dems are too embarrassed by Kumala to show up.

Arlington and Fairfax are so tied to the DC mindset because so many residents work in the district. I sometimes amuse myself wondering what would happen to those counties if the federal government returned to constitutionally authorized levels. I suspect the sound of so many screaming and running away from the area would be deafening.

Posted by: JTB at October 22, 2024 11:26 AM (yTvNw)

155 "which is why it's time to stop looking at media polls and look at the early votes."

==========

Republicans ahead by over 7,000 votes in Nevada.

Kamel probably going to be poop-faced drunk with Liz Cheney today.

Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (i7Q7S)

156 Good morning. Deja vu all over.

Posted by: 2012 at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (v1eJ7)

157 19 The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter.

Those people are NOT highly educated, they are fucking stupid, but highly indoctrinated.
Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:05 AM (pohLc)
---
21 the highly educated white voter.

No, the highly credentialed voter.
Posted by: grammie winger - cheesehead at October 22, 2024 11:06 AM (SfhV1)
_________
Either "highly uneducated" or "highly miseducated" would work. I prefer the former; education in this country is endangered nearly to extinction.

Posted by: Eeyore at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (1bNHn)

158 150 The race isn't close.

Yet, the finish isn't clear.
Posted by: The Central Scrutinizer at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (KbCG3)

=======

Clean up FL. Clean up NC. Clean up GA. Clean up AZ. Clean up VA.

Arguably, all that has been done to one degree or another. It's still open how blatant the law-breaking will be, though.

But, it's nice that the newest batch of Republican state legislators and governors are making election integrity a top issue.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (GBKbO)

159

312?

3, 12"ers?

For me that Tuesday...

Posted by: Kamala's Pesky Rundown at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (g75fU)

160
I'd like to believe Pennsylvania is possible. In 2020 I saw three Biden signs on the street. Yesterday I saw six for Harrison the same stretch.

Not many people want to risk putting Trump signs on their lawn. It's kinda telling n'est pas?

Posted by: Civic Classifier at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (MwtZ5)

161 Do the news stations somehow get results before the states themselves? They didn't call other obviously deep blue states that early.
Posted by: bluebell

********

I thought they relied on their own exit polls,

Posted by: muldoon at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (uCfKO)

162 I want Trump to win the popular vote by an insurmountable margin so these anti-electoral vote people will stop pushing their nonsense.

Posted by: Emmie at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (Sf2cq)

163 Networks call safe races the second they close. There's no need to wait for counts most of the time.
--------

I understand that, but they called Virginia well before deeper blue states like Massachusetts and NY.

Posted by: bluebell at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (79pEw)

164 Piper - You had that "please cheer me up" look 😂
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (lLEp5)

That's probably just the natural set one's face takes after eating kale.

Posted by: spindrift at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (OguvZ)

165 I think Trump will win, both officially and otherwise, but I vowed in 2011 that I would not take any analysis seriously that gives PA to the R....

In this case maybe PA won't matter again but it is owned and operated by fraud and I stand by that.

I won't try to talk you down, but here's a bit of good news willowed from the last post:

WINNING: Key Pennsylvania County Must Provide Paper Ballots to Voters in Major Election Integrity Victory.

Blame paper ballot shortages for disenfranchising dozens of voters in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania.

Some 40 precincts in this critical county southwest of Scranton, which broke heavily for Trump in 2016 and 2020, ran out of paper ballots on Election Day, forcing poll workers to turn away voters in the 2022 midterm election and outraging residents who didn’t wish to vote via electronic voting machine. While some voters were able to return later and cast a ballot at their local polling place—which were ordered by courts to remain open for two extra hours—many did not, meaning their vote was effectively suppressed by election mismanagement.

This disproportionately affected Republican voters.

https://is.gd/166zbM

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (xCA6C)

166 I know two very highly educated women who acknowledge that Harris is utterly unqualified, and yet can't bring themselves to vote for Trump. There's just a disconnect in the logic portion ofn the brain.

It's a self-i[Voting for someone unqualified doesn't make oneself unqualified but voting for someone icky does make oneself icky.

Posted by: Oddbob at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (/y8xj)

167 Thank you Dave! From your keyboard to God’s ears…. Your detailed analysis matches my intuition. Trump is stronger this year than he was in either 2016 or 2020… and his opponent this time is an unlikable retard

Posted by: LinusVanPelt at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (ANuwa)

168 Eh it happens the other way as well. Wyoming polls close at 8pm local time at 8:00:01 it’s called for the Republican. Not exactly going out on a limb to predict Wyoming will go red or Illinois will go blue with 0 votes counted.

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 11:28 AM (ekupY)

169 Theory: People Think NPR Is Left-Wing Because of Its Prominent Arts Coverage
--------

NPR isn't left wing and it's good that it is.

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:28 AM (hmOfI)

170 Scott Pressler set the record straight on the Amish. There are only 60,000 of them.

But Scott is getting a lot of them registered.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:28 AM (lLEp5)

171 >>Republicans ahead by over 7,000 votes in Nevada.

>>Kamel probably going to be poop-faced drunk with Liz Cheney today.

Even John Ralston, the so called Dean of Nevada politics, is saying Harris is in deep trouble in Nevada.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:28 AM (LkLld)

172 But what has changed? Did the loss of a small piece of ear tissue serve to upend the entire electoral map?

Posted by: Quarter Twenty at October 22, 2024 11:24 AM (VfYIb)

Biden happened.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 22, 2024 11:28 AM (d9fT1)

173 I'm in the 312 camp with the assumption that the cheat will be beat.

Posted by: scampydog at October 22, 2024 11:28 AM (2bFN5)

174 Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (xCA6C)

Thank you! I appreciate the good news.

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (hmOfI)

175 Crap. Somehow bumped the post button too soon. First sentence should have been "It's a self-image thing."

Posted by: Oddbob at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (/y8xj)

176 Have any of you ever been asked to participate in an exit poll? I've been voting since Ronald Reagan, and neither I nor anyone I know has ever been asked. I'm just curious, because if that's how they determine things, I wonder where they are doing this polling.

Posted by: bluebell at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (79pEw)

177 I personally don't see Trump winning the popular vote, but that would be epic. The mandate that would give him and the middle finger to the media and Dems.

Even though I'm usually an Eeyore, I would genuinely be surprised now if Trump though doesn't win the Presidency. I didn't feel that way in 2016 or 2020.

The worst part about 2020 was going to bed thinking he won and waking up and realizing that wasn't the case.

Posted by: Blago at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (wMRY8)

178 I just saw a Tweet that said there are 180,000 newly registered Amish voters in PA. Sounds incredible.

Wikipedia says there are 93,000 Amish- of all ages- in Pennsylvania, so...you and your math!

Posted by: t-bird at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (4SKzt)

179 153 And the "red wave" that turned into a puddle splash.

There's so much bullshit and fuckery the Dems get away with ....

But, I want to believe
Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at October 22, 2024 11:26 AM (6miZe)

========

The GOP won 2022 when looking at general congressional vote numbers (50-47.3). It was a red wave.

It's just that lawfare broke the GOP's back, especially for House races in CA and outright lawbreaking won the PA senate (250,000 illegally sent out mail in ballots).

The powers that be have been holding back the pendulum from swinging towards the right since...2012. It slipped in 2016, but they tightened their grip since, all while the GOP hasn't been able to deliver any policy gains.

It's an interesting dynamic.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (GBKbO)

180 Likewise I'm not a stir the pot kind of guy, but I'm so old I remember Dave from the sunshine state saying adamantly that Trump would never, never, NEVER (that's three nevers) have a path to 270. Seems that was just about, oh, four years ago.

In fact, I kinda thought Dave wasn't seen much around these parts for a few years after that.

Now don't get me wrong. I wanna believe. I really do.

But what has changed? Did the loss of a small piece of ear tissue serve to upend the entire electoral map?

As I said to another "show me" doomsayer recently; we've been arguing about this and bringing evidence for the last 4 years, and especially in the last few months. If you still don't know that anything has changed, it's because you don't want to know. Look it up yourself.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (xCA6C)

181 171 >>Republicans ahead by over 7,000 votes in Nevada.

>>Kamel probably going to be poop-faced drunk with Liz Cheney today.

Even John Ralston, the so called Dean of Nevada politics, is saying Harris is in deep trouble in Nevada.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:28 AM (LkLld)

Sounds Interesting

Posted by: Amber Heard at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (ynpvh)

182 Thanks for the post, Dave. It was a pleasure to hear about your methods at the MoMe.

Posted by: LRob in OK at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (TSQkU)

183 They will cheat, again, just like in 2020, but thus time it will be so egregious and in our face that it will be obvious to even the most partisan leftist. And they will dare us to do something about it.

And we won't do shit.

Posted by: Sharkman at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (L0Wwl)

184 Thx Dave in Florida. I asked this yesterday but does anyone think the huge Trump surge could cause the leftist and deep state powers that be say " no way anyone would believe Harris won if we stole it at this point"? They don't give up power willingly but sometimes it's too much

Posted by: Smell the Glove at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (a7PbZ)

185 --BREAKING--FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE--NEW POLLING DATA--

I tremble as I type this as the overwhelming love I feel for our lord and savior, slay-brat kween kamala (pbuh)., fills every fiber of my being! I'm not alone in my awe and reverence, as shown in this recent poll!11!!!1

Poll question: Do you share in the overwhelming love,, the awe and reverence of our lord and savior, slay-brat kween kamala (pbuh) that everyone clearly does?1!11!!??

Yes: 9199889898s09,9,,698476,6, buhxilliofubilliontrillion%

No: 0.000

Posted by: SEriOus poLlinG grOuP InC! at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (EFZgU)

186 That’s seems, as the kids would says, sus.
Are there even 180k Amish people in PA, let alone new voters?
Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 11:24 AM (ekupY)

Scott Pressler made a huge push to get them registered. They know Kamala hates them and wants to prosecute them for their way of life.

Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (s9EYN)

187 Ben Stiller and Andy Cohen appear with Doug Emhoff asking white dudes to vote Kamala so your grandchildren may be aborted.

Doug Emhoff@DouglasEmhoff
Being a girl dad is a gift. It’s also one of the reasons @BenStiller and @Andy are voting for @KamalaHarris.

https://is.gd/DTm7Za

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (L/fGl)

188 178 I just saw a Tweet that said there are 180,000 newly registered Amish voters in PA. Sounds incredible.

Wikipedia says there are 93,000 Amish- of all ages- in Pennsylvania, so...you and your math!

Posted by: t-bird at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (4SKzt)

The Amish-adjacent as well?

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (ynpvh)

189 That's probably just the natural set one's face takes after eating kale.
---
I personally witnessed her eat a piece of bacon 😂

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (lLEp5)

190 187 Ben Stiller and Andy Cohen appear with Doug Emhoff asking white dudes to vote Kamala so your grandchildren may be aborted.

Doug Emhoff@DouglasEmhoff
Being a girl dad is a gift. It’s also one of the reasons @BenStiller and @Andy are voting for @KamalaHarris.

https://is.gd/DTm7Za
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (L/fGl)

=======

Did Doug have to slap them around before they got it right?

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (GBKbO)

191 Scott Pressler set the record straight on the Amish. There are only 60,000 of them.

You forgot the 120,000 of them named Jose Garcia. We should know- we registered them!

Posted by: The DNC at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (9SBJU)

192 188 Wikipedia says there are 93,000 Amish- of all ages- in Pennsylvania, so...you and your math!

Posted by: t-bird at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (4SKzt)

The Amish-adjacent as well?
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (ynpvh)

========

Probably combining Mennonites in with the Amish.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (GBKbO)

193 Have any of you ever been asked to participate in an exit poll? I've been voting since Ronald Reagan, and neither I nor anyone I know has ever been asked. I'm just curious, because if that's how they determine things, I wonder where they are doing this polling.

Posted by: bluebell at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (79pEw)

I was in 08 in Chicago

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (CIS44)

194 121 I just saw a Tweet that said there are 180,000 newly registered Amish voters in PA. Sounds incredible.

.. I've seen photos of Amish horse drawn carriages with Trump stickers on them.

Posted by: SMOD at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (RHGPo)

195 I am calling AZ for Harris...

Posted by: Chris "Fatboy" Stirewalt at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (1FWWQ)

196 I can't believe this election is a few weeks from now. We just finished burying John McCain.

Posted by: jwest at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (VP9ao)

197 Thank you Dave! From your keyboard to God’s ears…. Your detailed analysis matches my intuition. Trump is stronger this year than he was in either 2016 or 2020… and his opponent this time is an unlikable retard

Posted by: LinusVanPelt

Agree completely. Especially on the thanks to DiF.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (xCA6C)

198 LOL, Laura Trump went on Charlamagne the Little Bitch of the Dems show.

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (6miZe)

199 In fact, I kinda thought Dave wasn't seen much around these parts for a few years after that.

————-
This is because some people on here couldn’t separate analysis from a person. It was unnecessarily brutal. It’s easy to forget there are actual people behind these grey boxes. Go ahead and chastise me for being little Miss Kumbaya, that is no secret anyway.

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (p4NUW)

200 People were asking about the Harris /Walz signs in Corsicana. East side of town and this county votes 76% Republican. Leave them their fantasies.

Posted by: Ben Had at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (t8vHj)

201 38 The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter.
*
Those people are NOT highly educated, they are fucking stupid, but highly indoctrinated.
Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024

***
I came to realize that when they all fell hard for the Coof scam, face diaper hoax, and clot shot orders.
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 11:08 AM (J2vNu)
_______
While I tend to agree, there is an alternate take. In C S Lewis's That Hideous Strength, Fairy Hardcastle explains to Mark that it is precisely the college educated who fall for what the "responsible" news tells them. The working man reads it only for murders and sports results.

Posted by: Eeyore at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (1bNHn)

202 179 153 And the "red wave" that turned into a puddle splash.

There's so much bullshit and fuckery the Dems get away with ....

But, I want to believe
Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at October 22, 2024 11:26 AM (6miZe)

========

The GOP won 2022 when looking at general congressional vote numbers (50-47.3). It was a red wave.

It's just that lawfare broke the GOP's back, especially for House races in CA and outright lawbreaking won the PA senate (250,000 illegally sent out mail in ballots).

The powers that be have been holding back the pendulum from swinging towards the right since...2012. It slipped in 2016, but they tightened their grip since, all while the GOP hasn't been able to deliver any policy gains.

It's an interesting dynamic.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:29 AM (GBKbO)

Don't forget those RINOs who would rather have Dems in that REPs with wrongthink.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (ynpvh)

203
Either "highly uneducated" or "highly miseducated" would work. I prefer the former; education in this country is endangered nearly to extinction.
Posted by: Eeyore

Over schooled but under taught

That is to say, academic credentials are now completely worthless as a measure of a person's capabilities and desires in the workplace and the broader world.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at October 22, 2024 11:32 AM (xG4kz)

204 First Day results for Harris County:
125,472 in-person Early Voters at 88 Voting Centers
27,027 Mail Ballots returned
152,499 Total Early Votes

71,242 ballots mailed

Posted by: Count de Monet at October 22, 2024 11:32 AM (Aqu9a)

205 We won't know the results of the 2024 election for days! Maybe months !

--Arnon Mishkin, FOX news decision desk

Posted by: runner at October 22, 2024 11:32 AM (V13WU)

206 Trump would definitely never scoop fries the wrong way to get the media to cover it.

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:32 AM (hmOfI)

207 I fell like its not even about beating the Dems anymore. It's about beating the MSM, without which the Dems would be toast year after year. They are the real enemy.

Posted by: Ripley at October 22, 2024 11:32 AM (GUOwU)

208 My favorite thing about all this is how Trump leads in every indicator that matters to voters, is overperforming with minority voters, enjoys a +3 GOP identity trend as reported by Gallup

but is still tied with Harris nationally

Sure, Jan

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at October 22, 2024 11:32 AM (M7vhK)

209 I personally witnessed her eat a piece of bacon 😂

Sssssh. What happens at MoMe stays at MoMe.

Posted by: Oddbob at October 22, 2024 11:32 AM (/y8xj)

210 Educated beyond their intelligence

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:32 AM (hmOfI)

211 Kulmala is pro-reparations; well, I am too. I say those that enslaved others should pay those that were enslaved. Since everybody involved is dead, the total owed today is $0.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:33 AM (ynpvh)

212 Thanks for continuing to bring us analysis Dave! Much appreciated.

Posted by: AK at work at October 22, 2024 11:33 AM (o+IHV)

213 The GOP is putting forth a huge GOTV effort, something they've lacked the last few election cycles. It matters.

One big difference between 2016 and 2020, and now, is that the Bushies no longer control the party machinery.

That makes a difference.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:33 AM (uxCna)

214 35
‘ Am I just misremembering or has the left just completely embraced the lies this year?’

You are misremembering.
The left embraced the lies in 2008 not last year.

Posted by: Dr. Claw at October 22, 2024 11:33 AM (jbnUc)

215 Thx Dave in Florida. I asked this yesterday but does anyone think the huge Trump surge could cause the leftist and deep state powers that be say " no way anyone would believe Harris won if we stole it at this point"? They don't give up power willingly but sometimes it's too much

I absolutely think that will be the case. They think they'll be keeping their cheat powder dry for the '28 cycle, but they're in for a surprise. Not only has the electorate shifted, Trump will make electoral integrity a major goal. I think the days of the unimpeded cheat are numbered.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:33 AM (xCA6C)

216
ApSHQ Gray Boxes are People!

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at October 22, 2024 11:33 AM (xG4kz)

217 Dave, any thoughts on my question at 135? Thanks.

Posted by: bluebell at October 22, 2024 11:33 AM (79pEw)

218 208 My favorite thing about all this is how Trump leads in every indicator that matters to voters, is overperforming with minority voters, enjoys a +3 GOP identity trend as reported by Gallup

but is still tied with Harris nationally

Sure, Jan
Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at October 22, 2024 11:32 AM (M7vhK)

========

NC and MI are polling almost exactly the same.

This cannot possibly be because polling is wrong. Polling cannot be wrong. This is because NC and MI are almost identical states.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (GBKbO)

219 "I just saw a Tweet that said there are 180,000 newly registered Amish voters in PA. Sounds incredible."

======

I doubt that. But, good news for Republicans here:

There has been a marked shift from the 2020 election. Here's a look at how the major party registration numbers changed in Pennsylvania over the past four years.

Democrats
2020 | 4,228,888
2024 | 3,971,607
NET LOSS | 257,281

Republicans
2020 | 3,543,070
2024 | 3,673,783
NET GAIN | 428,537

-Note Biden "won" when the Dems had a 750k registration advantage.

Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (i7Q7S)

220 184 - I talked about this at the mome. Yes I do think there comes a point where the risk becomes so high they won't do it because it is so obvious.

I worry more about the period between election and inauguration. I think they will try to find ways to invalidate the election or take Trump out.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (lLEp5)

221 189 I personally witnessed her eat a piece of bacon 😂
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October

This is a true story!

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (p4NUW)

222 Remember that a big skew to the national poll numbers comes from Kamala being able to rack up large majorities in California and New York.

Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (wyMQY)

223 I just saw a Tweet that said there are 180,000 newly registered Amish voters in PA. Sounds incredible.

.. I've seen photos of Amish horse drawn carriages with Trump stickers on them.

Posted by: SMOD at October 22, 2024 11:31 AM (RHGPo)

Do they need a DL to operate one of those...on state/county roads?

Posted by: BignJames at October 22, 2024 11:35 AM (Yj6Os)

224 Thanks for the analysis, Dave in Fla!

I talked about election mechanics several times late Saturday night and on Sunday morning at the MoMe.

Each time, someone said, "You should have been asking Dave in Fla those questions!"

But alas, we had already launched you on your 17-hour car ride.

Posted by: Pillage Idiot at October 22, 2024 11:35 AM (HlyYF)

225 >>Don't forget those RINOs who would rather have Dems in that REPs with wrongthink.

Such as Mitch McConnell who withholds election dollars from any senate candidate who doesn't support his agenda.

One more election and we are done with the Turtle.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:35 AM (LkLld)

226 Did Doug have to slap them around before they got it right?
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (GBKbO)

"Bitches get stitches!"

Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing (aka Eloquent Depression) at October 22, 2024 11:35 AM (Q0kLU)

227 Correction: there were 685,818 more registered Democrats in Pennsylvania than Republicans in 2020.

Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:35 AM (i7Q7S)

228 219 -Note Biden "won" when the Dems had a 750k registration advantage.
Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (i7Q7S)

========

The funniest partisan registration numbers are from FL and WY.

FL eliminated 800,000 Democrat registrations after 2020. It was quickly followed by DeSantis winning by 19 and never one story of a little old black lady saying she was turned away from voting.

WY saw Democrats reregister as Republicans to vote for Cheney in her primary, and they've never gone back to being Democrats. The Democrat numbers halved and never came back.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (GBKbO)

229 Does this genius know you can simply turn the box around?
Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:14 AM (i7Q7S)

As a lifelong McDonald's fry chef, I noticed that dRumpf was wearing a dress shirt with long sleeves and cuff links. This is definitely a violation of the dress code. Men For Kamala! -- Erin "DickLips" Moiren (no similarity to anyone, living or dead, is intended)

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (ExV1e)

230 What to REALLY expect:

Trump is merely a stalking horse for JD Vance. He's too infirm and unhinged to be president. If elected, he will either die soon, be 25th Amendmented, or be a figurehead as JD, Peter Thiel, and the other fascists and architects of Project 2025 run roughshod over the country.

Vance swears an oath to uphold the big lie. Donny is happy. Interviewers can't get him to budge off it. In return, WHEN DT steps down, Vance pardons him, something his kangaroo court says (privately) that he can't do himself.

Trump isn't going anywhere, if elected. They need him to keep the “peasants” interested. The figurehead that gets all the accolades while behind the scenes they begin installing Project 2025.

Trump's chosen cabinet isn't going to replace him. And if I had a nickel for every DU prediction of Trump's imminent demise I'd own the internet.

The only place I ever see this nonsense is on DU and a few lefty blogs.

Rick Wilson brought up an interesting point on this yesterday. If they do go 25th Amendment on Donny, his cult will never forgive them. His cult IS the Repuke base.

Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (JCZqz)

231 This cannot possibly be because polling is wrong. Polling cannot be wrong. This is because NC and MI are almost identical states.

*********************

right, polling that shows Trump losing NC, but winning Michigan handedly, but losing Wisconsin which is sightly redder than Michigan seems like

whats the word Im looking for, it rhymes with bullshit I believe

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (M7vhK)

232 The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter.

I suggest we call this group the mis-educated group, the dis-educated group, or my favorite, the mal-educated group.

Posted by: AK at work at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (o+IHV)

233 Kulmala is pro-reparations; well, I am too. I say those that enslaved others should pay those that were enslaved. Since everybody involved is dead, the total owed today is $0.

Years ago, when some reparations were paid to Japanese-Americans for their treatment in WWII, they were very careful about that.

You were forced to live in an internment camp? You get a check.

You are the child of someone who was forced to live in an internment camp? No check.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (uxCna)

234
Don't forget those RINOs who would rather have Dems in that REPs with wrongthink.

Yes, but there are a lot fewer of them now, and the ones that remain are reduced in power and afraid to say openly what they think.

One big difference between 2016 and 2020, and now, is that the Bushies no longer control the party machinery.

That makes a difference.

Yup. It's tempting to fight the last battle, but we should acknowledge the progress that has been made. There's certainly more to do, but who would you rather be allied with now, the GOPe, or Trump?

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (xCA6C)

235 I have walked into my voting location on Election Day for the last 3 elections, saying "Me nombre es Manual EnFuego. Can I have a ballot."

The workers all know me, roll their eyes, make me show my real ID, and give me one, and only one, ballot.

Being law abiding can be dull at times.

Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (u82oZ)

236 226 Did Doug have to slap them around before they got it right?
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:30 AM (GBKbO)

"Bitches get stitches!"
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing (aka Eloquent Depression) at October 22, 2024 11:35 AM (Q0kLU)

=======

"It's like you were there!"
-Ben Stiller, crying

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (GBKbO)

237 I can pretty much say with 85% certainty that this is not going to be a low turnout election. We have went twice now to try and vote early and the line is out the door and we still have 10 days more of early voting. This is is rural deep red Texas.

Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (QNSds)

238 I worry more about the period between election and inauguration. I think they will try to find ways to invalidate the election or take Trump out.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (lLEp5)

Yes, this is certain.

Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (pohLc)

239 This cannot possibly be because polling is wrong. Polling cannot be wrong. This is because NC and MI are almost identical states.
-----
This year the demographics are pretty similar between the two states. A lot of ancestoral Democrats voting Republican.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (lLEp5)

240 Good stuff, Dave!

Keep the analysis coming!

Posted by: AlaBAMA at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (RUMEY)

241 I worry more about the period between election and inauguration. I think they will try to find ways to invalidate the election or take Trump out.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (lLEp5)

This is my worry as well.

That and a "We didn't get our way let's go all mostly peaceful on everyone and see how much we can burn!"

Posted by: Just Lily at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (aDMGZ)

242 NPR isn't left wing and it's good that it is.
Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:28 AM (hmOfI)

But of course that doesn't affect our news coverage!

Posted by: I'm Korva Coleman, and this is NPR news at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (PiwSw)

243 I worry more about the period between election and inauguration. I think they will try to find ways to invalidate the election or take Trump out.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (lLEp5)
'
Yes, I was glad to be able to talk with you about that this weekend! And I still think - there's no path to doing that leaves the county intact. This path leads only to chaos, civil conflict, and collapse at the Federal Level - I don't think they're strong enough to risk it. If they find a way to just take Trump out personally, then we get Vance, and I don't think they'll risk that either.

Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (wyMQY)

244 Andy Cohen is a bitch so Emhoff wouldn't think twice about bitch- slapping him

Posted by: Smell the Glove at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (a7PbZ)

245 It can be lunch time

Posted by: Skip at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (K63Rm)

246 222 Remember that a big skew to the national poll numbers comes from Kamala being able to rack up large majorities in California and New York.

Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:34 AM (wyMQY)

Don't look at me. I tried to take my wife (life-long registered Dem, voted more conservatively than me) off the roles after she passed, but got a letter saying they wouldn't take her off for another two weeks after her death was reported; well, guess what? That period ended after the elections. I haven't received a ballot for her thus far, but who knows? Maybe they sent it to the cemetery.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (ynpvh)

247 "The Democrat numbers halved and never came back."

=========

Remember when Obama won and "demographics" were going to put Republicans on the ash bin of history?

LOL

Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (i7Q7S)

248 WWWWS

Posted by: G'rump928(c) at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (aD39U)

249 172 But what has changed? Did the loss of a small piece of ear tissue serve to upend the entire electoral map?

Posted by: Quarter Twenty at October 22, 2024 11:24 AM (VfYIb)

Biden happened.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo

Well said.

Posted by: Quarter Twenty at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (VfYIb)

250 I guess they're appealing to the masses.

It's Come to This: Michelle Obama Organizes Drag Shows To Support Failing Harris Campaign

-
Well, you've got to admit, Mooch and drag shows go together like Cosby and Pudding Pops.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (L/fGl)

251 >>There's certainly more to do, but who would you rather be allied with now, the GOPe, or Trump?

Don't be a dult, join the cult!

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (LkLld)

252 237 I can pretty much say with 85% certainty that this is not going to be a low turnout election. We have went twice now to try and vote early and the line is out the door and we still have 10 days more of early voting. This is is rural deep red Texas.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (QNSds)

=======

If early voting is any indication, it's not a low-turnout election. It's a high-turnout election.

Except...Democrats are missing literally millions of early voters.

It's weird.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:38 AM (GBKbO)

253 Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (JCZqz)

again with the Proj 2025. These people are worse than a dog with a bone.

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:38 AM (CIS44)

254 Trump is stronger this year than he was in either 2016 or 2020… and his opponent this time is an unlikable retard
Posted by: LinusVanPelt at October 22, 2024

***
All three of his opponents have been unlikeable, a retard, or both.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 11:38 AM (J2vNu)

255
Meanwhile, while You People are taking premature victory laps, fake news cnn jus repeated the "he told people to drink bleach" hoax. Scott Jennings told the host it was debunked, and she said, "No, it wasn't debunked." And Scott Jennings backed down.

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 22, 2024 11:38 AM (xaqOx)

256 The Amish-adjacent as well?

Adding in the Mennonites, you get 126,000 in Pennsylvania. Again, of all ages.

(source: thearda.com)

Posted by: t-bird at October 22, 2024 11:38 AM (DyY8E)

257 Trump is merely a stalking horse for JD Vance. He's too infirm and unhinged to be president. If elected, he will either die soon, be 25th Amendmented, or be a figurehead as JD, Peter Thiel, and the other fascists and architects of Project 2025 run roughshod over the country.

This is not the dunk you think it is. One of the benefits of picking your running mate on ability and not skin color/genitals, is that we pick quality.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:38 AM (xCA6C)

258 Just stopping by to say I totally agree with this take. After Trump picked Vance, I was convinced he would take PA and that then MI and WI would fall in line. The fact that Scott Pressler focused solely on PA reinforced the need to secure this one state. Harris cannot win without PA so denying her that one state was super important.
Pressler deserves one of those million dollar checks Elon is handing out.

Posted by: Sharon(willow's apprentice) at October 22, 2024 11:38 AM (t/2Uw)

259 The deep state can't hold back on cheating because if Trump holds true to his word a lot of these people will be arrested right after the election. The FBI, CIA, NSA and a number of other agencies will be purged, along with the military. They will do whatever is necessary to see Trump never takes office.

Posted by: jwest at October 22, 2024 11:38 AM (VP9ao)

260 239 This cannot possibly be because polling is wrong. Polling cannot be wrong. This is because NC and MI are almost identical states.
-----
This year the demographics are pretty similar between the two states. A lot of ancestoral Democrats voting Republican.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (lLEp5)

=======

It's well beyond that. It's the independent vote leaning heavily Republican in NC and not in Michigan.

They're not remotely the same.

The idea that both are polling pretty much the same all of a sudden in the final weeks of the election is herding around a tie because pollsters either can't get a good read of the states or don't want to reveal real results and are hedging their bets.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:39 AM (GBKbO)

261 If Virginia flips to Trump early the screaming at DU will generate enough energy to power Texas for 2 weeks

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at October 22, 2024 11:39 AM (M7vhK)

262 I don't think they're strong enough to risk it. If they find a way to just take Trump out personally, then we get Vance, and I don't think they'll risk that either.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (wyMQY)

Seriously man. They've been working at it for years already, and you think they will give up over a minor thing like an election?

Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:39 AM (pohLc)

263 I think this hurts Harris, since Trump will be able to unequivocally support Israel, and Harris will not.

I picture the media asking Harris about it - just go with the joke - and Harris running around like Beaker from the Muppets on fire.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at October 22, 2024 11:39 AM (ExV1e)

264 The epitome of Kamala's campaign may have been last night - she held a "Town Hall" where the audience was told to just sit quietly and listen, no questions allowed.

Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:40 AM (wyMQY)

265 192 188 Kinda hard coming up with a number on the Amish as a lot are named Yoder. There was a case of a rural mailman, and his "trip" had about 30 households of that name. Just an example.

Posted by: bill in arkansas, not gonna comply with nuttin, waiting for the 0300 knock on the door at October 22, 2024 11:40 AM (gm9Sb)

266 If Virginia flips to Trump early the screaming at DU will generate enough energy to power Texas for 2 weeks
Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at October 22, 2024 11:39 AM (M7vhK)

It would be the first and only time I wish I could see them on webcam.

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:40 AM (CIS44)

267 247 Remember when Obama won and "demographics" were going to put Republicans on the ash bin of history?

LOL
Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:37 AM (i7Q7S)

========

Well, if Barack had led a revitalization of the black experience by telling black families to stop aborting its children, to get off of welfare, and become self-sufficient, it might have worked.

Oh, you mean importing millions of the lowest classes from across the world illegally because no one actually wants to put their names on the policy.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:40 AM (GBKbO)

268 Kamala holds the credential caste and that is about it.

Posted by: G'rump928(c) at October 22, 2024 11:40 AM (aD39U)

269 The map looks about right. Mrs. E says ‘now the dems how/where to cheat.’ I told her they already knew that.

Posted by: Eromero at October 22, 2024 11:41 AM (OAly5)

270 Each time, someone said, "You should have been asking Dave in Fla those questions!"

LOL!

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:41 AM (lLEp5)

271 191 Scott Pressler set the record straight on the Amish. There are only 60,000 of them.

—

And of that at least 1/4 is under 18.
Every vote counts so it’s good that he’s doing this. But just throwing out wild number like 180k doesn’t help.

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 11:41 AM (ekupY)

272
For the record, and this is Fact: neither the words "bleach" nor "lysol" were ever said by the president. Nor the word "drink."

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 22, 2024 11:41 AM (xaqOx)

273 This is not the dunk you think it is. One of the benefits of picking your running mate on ability and not skin color/genitals, is that we pick quality.

*****************************

Vance would still need to win the primary but that's how it should be. I look forward to the Vance/DeSantis/Vivek Wrestlemania to see who can out-trump each other for the championship title

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at October 22, 2024 11:41 AM (M7vhK)

274 I feel confident about Trump winning this year, maybe not crushing the margin of fraud, but clearly topping it.

Posted by: Johnny Confidence at October 22, 2024 11:41 AM (xtKM4)

275 One of the things I mentioned to Dave in Fla, when we chatted about the possibility of the election not being certified, was, "If the Junta thinks it can get away with it, it will refuse to allow the election to be certified."

Notice the screeching harpies of the GOPe demonizing PDT and his supporters. There's a method to that madness which leads me to believe the GOPe is trying to help Democrats set the stage to deny certification.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:41 AM (tT6L1)

276 Just stopping by to say I totally agree with this take. After Trump picked Vance, I was convinced he would take PA and that then MI and WI would fall in line. The fact that Scott Pressler focused solely on PA reinforced the need to secure this one state. Harris cannot win without PA so denying her that one state was super important.
Pressler deserves one of those million dollar checks Elon is handing out.

Agreed. I don't know if he's being paid by the GOP, but he's worth more than a million campaign consultants telling you to run more TV ads.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:41 AM (xCA6C)

277 Trump isn't going anywhere, if elected. They need him to keep the “peasants” interested. The figurehead that gets all the accolades while behind the scenes they begin installing Project 2025
——-

The peasants. I Swanee, these people. Their elitism is comical. Also, Project 2025 needs really scary theme music that plays automatically anytime someone says it. Elon should get on that.

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:41 AM (p4NUW)

278 My problem is that I so often see these rosy scenarios sketched out, and yet so rarely see them come to pass.

And of course, the gods send Nemesis to punish hubris.

Posted by: Eeyore at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (1bNHn)

279 Trump's chosen cabinet isn't going to replace him. And if I had a nickel for every DU prediction of Trump's imminent demise I'd own the internet.

-
A brief moment of clarity at DU? Are the pigs flying?

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (L/fGl)

280 I am terrified by the amount of potential UOCAVA fraud that can be perpetuated by the Democrats.

Any idea how much of potentially fraudulent votes in the swing states can be successfully challenged by POST-election litigation?

Posted by: Pillage Idiot at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (HlyYF)

281 Trump wins the popular vote by 1%

personally, i'm looking for the popular vote compact folks to have a meltdown

Posted by: anachronda at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (sGtp+)

282 269 Kamala holds the credential caste and that is about it.
Posted by: G'rump928(c) at October 22, 2024 11:40 AM (aD39U)

I know one Ed.D that isn't voting for the bitch.

Posted by: Dr. Jill at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (PiwSw)

283 230
...
Trump's chosen cabinet isn't going to replace him. And if I had a nickel for every DU prediction of Trump's imminent demise I'd own the internet.

Trump's chosen cabinet isn't going to replace him. And if I had a nickel for every DU prediction of Trump's imminent demise I'd own the internet.

The only place I ever see this nonsense is on DU and a few lefty blogs.

Rick Wilson brought up an interesting point on this yesterday. If they do go 25th Amendment on Donny, his cult will never forgive them. His cult IS the Repuke base.
...
Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (JCZqz)

I have to laugh; there is some semblance of sanity at the DU lunatic fun house. The last one is interesting; would a cult support a doddering leader who shakes hands with ghosts, sniffs little girls, and is provably corrupt? Sure it would...

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (ynpvh)

284 This year they are counting the overseas ballots.
Millions of them. Or, however many.it takes.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (fJiwe)

285 Betting markets (spit)

But Trump is almost 30 points up from Kamala on Polymarket now.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (GBKbO)

286 276 Notice the screeching harpies of the GOPe demonizing PDT and his supporters. There's a method to that madness which leads me to believe the GOPe is trying to help Democrats set the stage to deny certification.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker

Like an insurrection?

Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (p4NUW)

287 where the audience was told to just sit quietly and listen, no questions allowed.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:40 AM (wyMQY)

Our Democracy in action

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (hmOfI)

288 >>Agreed. I don't know if he's being paid by the GOP, but he's worth more than a million campaign consultants telling you to run more TV ads.

One of the first things Lara Trump did when the Trump team took over the RNC was to partner up with Scott after years of Ronna ignoring his requests.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (LkLld)

289 A brief moment of clarity at DU? Are the pigs flying?
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (L/fGl)

Well Liz Cheney did make it to PA.

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (CIS44)

290 I'm still in awe that Kamala is campaigning with Liz Cheney.

She really thinks that highlighting Warmonger Liz will bring votes to the Democrats?

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (uxCna)

291 Dave is the man!

Dave is a killer!

Posted by: The Hanson Brothers at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (Aqu9a)

292 It’s funny how the most likely scenarios give states where mail-in ballots and other loose electoral laws, likely to be found unconstitutional (when SCOTUS grows a set of balls and ACB retires, which is never) to Democrats. I’m sure that’s purely incidental and the reasoning is those states are simply “too Blue”, which I partially believe. But the margin of cheat simply makes them unobtainable. As an aside, I believe Lee Zeldin won NY but was simply unable to beat the manufactured ballots.

Posted by: Marcus T at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (oZhq1)

293 You can see the broad outlines of the problem if you know what to look for.

Ever try to put 10 pounds of shit in a 5 pound bag?

The “coalition” that goes back to FDR and beyond, the Narrative they have been crafting and hammering on relentlessly is Whitey votes Republican. And Whitey is a Nazi. “Christian Nationalist”. Provincial. Ethnocentric. Xenophobic. All of the ills in the US are due to icky boys, and those mean Republicans.

What they can’t afford is a stolen election, and the larger, Improved J6 2.0 looks like a rainbow coalition Benneton ad. They would try to spin it - they have no choice - but branding blacks and everybody else as “They are Nazis!” while shutting down free speech isn’t fooling even the dimmest bulbs out there. At no time in history have the Good Guys been the ones who censored the truth.

Posted by: Common Tater at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (a9x7X)

294 72 39
‘ better understand a release valve is needed. The courts could be one, if they are actually fair. This is what scares me the most ‘

It scares me too. We needed a release valve in 2020 but the Supreme Court couldn’t be bothered.

Posted by: Dr. Claw at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (jbnUc)

295 Tom Servo

Having the Deep State in Spain murder a very popular politician was the start of the Spanish Civil War. There is a book about it: Long Live Death.

Extrapolating from that very bitter war, the US would have at least 50 million casualties. Given how many people are planning for this, probably a lot more.

I would like to avoid that kind of brutality.

Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (u82oZ)

296 211 Kulmala is pro-reparations; well, I am too. I say those that enslaved others should pay those that were enslaved. Since everybody involved is dead, the total owed today is $0.
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:33 AM (ynpvh)

I'm pretty darned sure that Kamala's family in Jamaica, who received about $12 million in compensation when they were required to release their slaves, did not pay any reparations to the people they had "owned".

Maybe Kamala should put her money where her mouth is and rectify that.

Posted by: Emmie at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (Sf2cq)

297 I’d be perfectly content with a president Vance. So if DU is correct, OK cool.

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (ekupY)

298 "The deep state can't hold back on cheating because if Trump holds true to his word a lot of these people will be arrested right after the election."

I wish this to be true but highly doubt it. We will get investigations, hearing, special prosecutors etc... In the end it will be some resignations (with pensions intact)

Posted by: Ripley at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (GUOwU)

299 282 Trump wins the popular vote by 1%

personally, i'm looking for the popular vote compact folks to have a meltdown
Posted by: anachronda at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (sGtp+)

=======

An important framing of that compact:

It's dead letter right now. It only goes into effect when they have enough signed on to reach 270 electoral votes.

This is why there have been no lawsuits against it.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (GBKbO)

300 I think the Dems are sacrificing Kamala for stronger candidates in future elections, which would include random coke cans on the side of the road. There is no other explanation for her campaign and Tim Walz.
Posted by: Piper at October 22, 2024 11:09 AM (p4NUW)

There are a couple of possible explanations, one is that Harris is running everything with her typical ability to attract quality staff, encourage open and free discussion to find solutions, and her usual leadership style, and has managed to chase anyone with opposing views out of her circle. This indicates that the Dems do think their presidential candidate is something of an autocrat who acts as the main leader.

Another is that she has managed to be so immature and demanding that the older and wiser heads said "screw it let her spiral in and get burned so she will come to us when she realizes that she is a screw up" without taking into consideration her inability to admit she has ever made a mistake.
The third is Malo Gato's theory of "rule by rube" where the original generation of grifters all died off, and the only remaining people are true believers who don't understand that it is all lies.

Posted by: Kindltot at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (D7oie)

301 The fact that she is taking a day off two weeks before the election to prep for two softball interviews says she knows it 's over. At this point they are just trying to keep her from a nervous breakdown before Election Day. If you watch the Shriver "town hall" interview she can barely get the words out and it is the exact same word salad about democracy she's delivered before.

Posted by: Sharon(willow's apprentice) at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (t/2Uw)

302 Trump wins the popular vote by 1%

personally, i'm looking for the popular vote compact folks to have a meltdown

Posted by: anachronda at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM

If Trump does actually win the "popular vote" I expect a few of the states that signed onto that compact to stop and reassess their participation.

Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (QNSds)

303 where the audience was told to just sit quietly and listen, no questions allowed.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:40 AM (wyMQY)

Our Democracy in action
Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (hmOfI)

That's not how this works.

Posted by: Zombie Norman Rockwell at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (Aqu9a)

304 232 The only group that Harris holds from Biden 2020 is the highly educated white voter.

I suggest we call this group the mis-educated group, the dis-educated group, or my favorite, the mal-educated group.

Posted by: AK at work at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (o+IHV)

Inculcated/brainwashed in Koledge with the teachings of Marx (Karl, not Groucho), socialist economics, and history according to Howard Zinn

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (ynpvh)

305 Another thing to add to my question at 135 is that the Virginia official election return site showed Trump winning in Virginia for hours, based on the returns coming in.

I suppose it doesn't really matter but I really am curious how these things work.

Posted by: bluebell at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (79pEw)

306 "where the audience was told to just sit quietly and listen, no questions allowed."

=====

BRAT SUMMER!!!

So much JOY!!!!

Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (i7Q7S)

307 One of the first things Lara Trump did when the Trump team took over the RNC was to partner up with Scott after years of Ronna ignoring his requests.

Hey! All those flower arrangements weren't cheap!

Posted by: Ronna McDaniel! at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (uxCna)

308 Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (u82oZ)

Missed you at the MoMee. Hadn't occurred to me to ask earlier if you'd be there.

Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (s9EYN)

309 "Our Democracy" reminds me of a book by Al Gore that came out some years back (or was supposed to come out) called "Our Choice".

I observed then that they didn't tell you who "our" referred to.

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (hmOfI)

310 Also, Project 2025 needs really scary theme music that plays automatically anytime someone says it. Elon should get on that.

I'd rather have a horse whinny in terror in the background.
https://is.gd/1iGHl1

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (xCA6C)

311 I think they will try to find ways to invalidate the election or take Trump out.
Posted by: Dave in Fla

Not the party of Democracy! The ones that overthrew the sitting president in a secret coup because his polling was bad. For Democracy. What you're suggesting sounds like an insummerection, and I've been brainwashed for the last 3.5 years that that's the worstest thing ever!

Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (JCZqz)

312 I have some Slavic blood on me. It’s literally there in the name. slave!! Where my reparations at motherfucker?

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (ekupY)

313 Quite a few years ago, Harry Reid came close to losing his election to a TEA party representative. He barely held his seat through election shenanigans. I don't remember all the ins and outs, but, Reid should have been gone long before he was.

In other words, NV is probably a bit redder than people realize, but, due to the makeup of the state, it's easy to cheat.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:45 AM (tT6L1)

314
After finishing 'Hillbilly Elegy' yesterday I came away with few answers to the leanings of JD Vance. It was sort of a mish-mash of stories about individuals who either needed the safety net or abused the safety net. A bit of a 'tell' was from the publications like the NYT, and so-called 'conservatives'( that we speak of derisively here) that spoke positively of the book.

I guess we'll see. So far he's doing fine.

Posted by: Civic Classifier at October 22, 2024 11:45 AM (MwtZ5)

315 Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at October 22, 2024 11:36 AM (JCZqz)

Interesting to see dissent at DU.

Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at October 22, 2024 11:45 AM (s9EYN)

316 The polling this year seems to depend on two slider bars -

- % of the total sample that are self-identified as Dems

- % of the total sample that are truly likely voters (turnout).

The pollsters adjust those numbers with best guesses, fingers in the wind, and the balance in their bank accounts.

Posted by: mrp at October 22, 2024 11:45 AM (rj6Yv)

317 And in fact, what we're seeing so far for 2024 is that Pennsylvania, right now, the numbers are only 17% military and military dependents. All the other ballots in Pennsylvania for UOCAVA are non-military.

The 2020 FVAP report on non-military UOCAVA voting reported that, "In total, an estimated 224,139 votes were cast by overseas citizens in the 2020 General Election". The EAC's report to congress on the same group of voters offered an alarming discrepancy. The total number of overseas non-military ballots reported by counties on the EAVS was 573,000.

This year there will be about a million of these overseas voter. WTF is seeing if they are real and real citizens?

Posted by: rhennigantx at October 22, 2024 11:45 AM (gbOdA)

318 255 Meanwhile, while You People are taking premature victory laps, fake news cnn jus repeated the "he told people to drink bleach" hoax. Scott Jennings told the host it was debunked, and she said, "No, it wasn't debunked." And Scott Jennings backed down.

wait until it is suggested that eating the cats protects against h5n1

Posted by: anachronda at October 22, 2024 11:45 AM (sGtp+)

319 If/when Kamala loses, how long until the 25th is used to get rid of Biden, so Kamala can claim to be President for a little while? I'm guessing less than two weeks, especially if they can get Jill away from the Cabinet for a few days.

Posted by: Hour of the Wolf at October 22, 2024 11:45 AM (VNX3d)

320 257 Trump is merely a stalking horse for JD Vance. He's too infirm and unhinged to be president. If elected, he will either die soon, be 25th Amendmented, or be a figurehead as JD, Peter Thiel, and the other fascists and architects of Project 2025 run roughshod over the country.

This is not the dunk you think it is. One of the benefits of picking your running mate on ability and not skin color/genitals, is that we pick quality.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:38 AM (xCA6C)

I believe Kumala is quite the connoisseur of of the latter...

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:46 AM (ynpvh)

321 If Trump does actually win the "popular vote" I expect a few of the states that signed onto that compact to stop and reassess their participation.

That illegal "compact" will only be enforced if it benefits Democrats, of course.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:46 AM (uxCna)

322 Ahem, I think you mean "highly educated white voters who were surprised to find out biden has dementia"

Posted by: Tom at October 22, 2024 11:46 AM (eGxH7)

323 PA is only winnable for Trump because the Republican registrations have outpaced Democrats ability to manufacture ballots and manipulate electoral laws and statutes. I think everyone should be concerned when people like Shapiro deliberately tanked the early counting of mail-in ballots (on arrival) then told you there’s nothing nefarious about counting votes for days until the Democrats win.

Posted by: Marcus T at October 22, 2024 11:46 AM (oZhq1)

324 She really thinks that highlighting Warmonger Liz will bring votes to the Democrats?

********************

They really believe WarPig is their version of RFK Jr

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at October 22, 2024 11:46 AM (M7vhK)

325 Seriously man. They've been working at it for years already, and you think they will give up over a minor thing like an election?
Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:39 AM (pohLc)

But game it through - if they try to just nakedly seize power, like Maduro in Venezuela, Texas and Florida drop out and recognize Trump as President on their own immediately, and shortly about 2/3 of the States will follow. Then there would be a time when there are 2 US administrations competing for legitimacy - that's how civil wars start. That will be a dark, dark road to go down.

Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (wyMQY)

326 Two weeks.

I am an uneasy mixture of hopeful and terrified.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (uxCna)

327 Like I needed another reason to hate his guts.

Mitch McConnell Sides With Jack Smith in New Book

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (L/fGl)

328 I would like to avoid that kind of brutality.
Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (u82oZ)

These people never stop. They have already demonstrated their intent to burn, loot, and murder. It is inevitable.

Posted by: Xipe Totec at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (pohLc)

329 The epitome of Kamala's campaign may have been last night - she held a "Town Hall" where the audience was told to just sit quietly and listen, no questions allowed.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:40 AM (wyMQY)

***

And it was hosted by a woman whose husband nailed the nanny for a woman whose husband nailed the nanny.

Posted by: Truck Monkey Report at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (1FWWQ)

330 I know two very highly educated women who acknowledge that Harris is utterly unqualified, and yet can't bring themselves to vote for Trump. There's just a disconnect in the logic portion ofn the brain.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:22 AM (xCA6C)

Possibility 1: I hate his personality, his way of talking, and I'm willing to doom the country rather than turning off the TV when he's on - which I would likely do even if I supported him.
Possibility 2: Pussy Power!

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (ExV1e)

331 Note that the "highly educated white voters" believe Trump told people to drink bleach and called Nazi's "very fine people."

So smart.

Posted by: Jay in PA at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (i7Q7S)

332 My neighbors on both sides are 1000% in on every Democrats/leftist cause there is. Both yards littered with every imaginable sign.

Who are they?

One side a couple in their early 30s just had a baby. Both white collar professionals. Both drive - and I am not making this up - Subarus.

The other side retired couple, he was a - waaaaait for it - college professor.

This is the Democrat base.

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (ekupY)

333 Maybe Kamala should put her money where her mouth is and rectify that.
Posted by: Emmie at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (Sf2cq)

On some power player's genitals?

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (hmOfI)

334 311 Also, Project 2025 needs really scary theme music that plays automatically anytime someone says it. Elon should get on that.

I'd rather have a horse whinny in terror in the background.
https://is.gd/1iGHl1
Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (xCA6C)

Blucher!

Posted by: Igor at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (PiwSw)

335 "The deep state can't hold back on cheating because if Trump holds true to his word a lot of these people will be arrested right after the election."

I wish this to be true but highly doubt it. We will get investigations, hearing, special prosecutors etc... In the end it will be some resignations (with pensions intact)

Yeah, I think it's more likely we'll get a "Truth and Reconciliation" committee.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:48 AM (xCA6C)

336 320 If/when Kamala loses, how long until the 25th is used to get rid of Biden, so Kamala can claim to be President for a little while? I'm guessing less than two weeks, especially if they can get Jill away from the Cabinet for a few days.
Posted by: Hour of the Wolf at October 22, 2024 11:45 AM (VNX3d)

It would be much easier to just hold the pillow tightly over Joe's mouth.

Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:48 AM (wyMQY)

337 Which tells me that D's numbers in 2020 were...not genuine.

^This^

84 million votes my ass. I think everyone knew that was total bs. Hopefully, this gives conservatives the impetus to get their vote banked. Charlie Kirk deserves a great deal of credit for leading the way.

Posted by: Unkaren at October 22, 2024 11:48 AM (BKh1c)

338 More than prosecutions, although I would certainly like to see those, I want pardons and compensation for the people who have been persecuted, imprisoned and made destitute by the Biden administration's lawfare.

Posted by: Sharon(willow's apprentice) at October 22, 2024 11:48 AM (t/2Uw)

339
Trump received the most votes in 2020 of any Republican ever, in any election. I imaging he breaks the record again.

You still can't convince me 80 million people voted for Joe Biden while he campaigned from his basement. This did not happen.

Posted by: Frank Barone at October 22, 2024 11:48 AM (+oR7L)

340 I am an uneasy mixture of hopeful and terrified.
Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:47 AM (uxCna)

Welcome to Earth

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 11:48 AM (hmOfI)

341 313 Private Joshua Perkins' family demands reparations. Josh took a .58 in the brain housing group while serving with the 149th Pennsylvania (Bucktails) trying to stomp out slavery.

Posted by: bill in arkansas, not gonna comply with nuttin, waiting for the 0300 knock on the door at October 22, 2024 11:48 AM (gm9Sb)

342 Thanks Dave. I always appreciate your insights.
In my heart of hearts I think Washington State could be in play if: Trump showed up and kicked the GOP's ass; and, if we didn't have vote by mail. The cheat is ingrained here but it would be easily exposed with any decent kind of investigation.
Trump could fill any Seattle arena, just like Madison Square Garden.
Sigh...wish-casting probably...

Posted by: Diogenes at October 22, 2024 11:48 AM (W/lyH)

343 But game it through - if they try to just nakedly seize power, like Maduro in Venezuela, Texas and Florida drop out and recognize Trump as President on their own immediately, and shortly about 2/3 of the States will follow.

Yeah, that's a big barrier against a coup.

Unlike most other countries, the central government doesn't control the cops, and the central government doesn't even control a chunk of the military.

It turns out that there is a point to federalism.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:49 AM (uxCna)

344 It would be the first and only time I wish I could see them on webcam.
Posted by: BruceWayne

You sure about that? Imagine the typical DU user (think Trigglypuff). Now imagine the phrase "rending of garments". Now imagine losing your lunch, sanity, and eye sight.

Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at October 22, 2024 11:49 AM (JCZqz)

345 303 Trump wins the popular vote by 1%

personally, i'm looking for the popular vote compact folks to have a meltdown

Posted by: anachronda at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM

If Trump does actually win the "popular vote" I expect a few of the states that signed onto that compact to stop and reassess their participation.

Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 22, 2024 11:44 AM (QNSds)

Unless they're the types that once they hit an iceberg, they backup to hit it again.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 11:49 AM (ynpvh)

346 In fairness, our prominent coverage is "where are the boobs?" and "YES! boobs!"
Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:23 AM (CIS44)

That's unfair. We also frequently have discussions of:

- number and locations of trees,
- number and locations of dogs,
- number and locations of snipers,
- why does CBD hate us.

We're waaaay deeper than just boobs.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at October 22, 2024 11:49 AM (ExV1e)

347
The democrats are praying for a pandemic. They'll need one to be able to skewer the numbers to the level it will take to beat Trump.

Posted by: Frank Barone at October 22, 2024 11:50 AM (+oR7L)

348 Hi Dave...

Just walked in from early voting in deep red Summerville SC.

Polling Judge said that in 12 years she has never seen an early voting turnout like the last two day.

As an aside, S.C. simply requires voter registration, no Party Affiliation. So it is impossible to track Democratic/Republican turnout. We also require ID to cast a ballot.

But...gut feeling is good for Republican turnout.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 22, 2024 11:50 AM (a1415)

349 {{{Salty}}}
You we missed especially by me.❤️

Posted by: Sharon(willow's apprentice) at October 22, 2024 11:50 AM (t/2Uw)

350 159

312?

3, 12"ers?

For me that Tuesday...
Posted by: Kamala's Pesky Rundown at October 22, 2024 11:27 AM (g75fU)
_______
I had to read that several times before I understood that doesn't describe a predreadnought.

Posted by: Eeyore at October 22, 2024 11:50 AM (1bNHn)

351 Did someone say boobs?

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 22, 2024 11:50 AM (i24o9)

352 Two things will certainly come from this election;

- Liberal college educated women are the group with values most antithetical to the American Republic. Furthermore, they cannot overcome emotion to make common sense judgments that lead us from destruction. What they are most afraid of is that Trump will do exactly what he pledged to do with a diverse team of people and furthermore, he will do none of the things liberals have put forth in their fever dream campaign

- Second, there are a lot of eyes watching this election. Any fraud, cheating, manufacturing of ballots or other electoral manipulation will be exposed and become a significant issue that will finally need to be recognized and dealt with.

Posted by: Marcus T at October 22, 2024 11:50 AM (oZhq1)

353 Bluebell - when they do that they usually are looking at exit polls and early votes. Plus they have daily turnout stats to look at.

If there just aren't enough Republican voters to overcome, they call it

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:50 AM (lLEp5)

354 Ahem, I think you mean "highly educated white voters who were surprised to find out biden has dementia"

I read an article this morning which pointed out that about a third of Dem voters were disillusioned with the party because it lied to them about Biden's mental state.

Really? You didn't pick up on that over the course of the last 4 years.

No, they're making excuses for themselves.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:51 AM (xCA6C)

355 Any fraud, cheating, manufacturing of ballots or other electoral manipulation will be exposed and become a significant issue that will finally need to be recognized and dealt with.

STEINER WILL COME

Posted by: Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle at October 22, 2024 11:51 AM (i0bTX)

356 Unlike most other countries, the central government doesn't control the cops

When Hitler became Chancellor, Hindenburg only gave the Nazis two Cabinet positions, to keep them under control.

Unfortunately, one of the positions put Goering in control of the Prussian police, and that was all the Nazis needed.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (uxCna)

357 The source of their influence is also a source of vulnerability maybe.

By dividing everyone up into specific victim identity groups, and herding everyone around, they have enormous power.

There are no individuals allowed in this arrangement. You might be black Democrat - but as white Democrat Joe Beden helpfully pointed out - “If you don’t vote for me, you ain’t black!”

This statement is so revealing and profoundly vile and disgusting, only someone like Biden could say it. That’s why he is the go to guy for disgusting things, or something like that.

The problem as always for the left, is too keep their pet constituencies on the reservation. The old school parlor tricks, blinking lights, and targeted chemical warfare is having less and less of an effect.

In the 60s it was “Jobs! We Need Jobs!”

50 years later, ain’t nobody talking about jobs in the Democrat leadership. Just an advance auction, divvying up whatever they can launder or steal from the public Treasury.

Posted by: Common Tater at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (a9x7X)

358 If Pennsylvania is called for Trump by 1am besides being shocked myself, it will be all over.

Posted by: Skip at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (K63Rm)

359 348 As an aside, S.C. simply requires voter registration, no Party Affiliation. So it is impossible to track Democratic/Republican turnout. We also require ID to cast a ballot.

But...gut feeling is good for Republican turnout.
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 22, 2024 11:50 AM (a1415)

======

You can approximate it based on voting patterns of small subsets of voters like counties and such. It's possible, but it requires a lot of work and isn't THAT precise.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (GBKbO)

360 Boobs? There was a Moron T-shirt for that.

Posted by: Ben Had at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (t8vHj)

361 If this wasn't the era of voting season, I'd feel pretty confident.

But when our elections resemble fucking MLB All-Star voting, yeah, all bets are off.

Which is exactly why it has been engineered this way.

All to stop one man.

Posted by: The Central Scrutinizer at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (KbCG3)

362 Any idea how much of potentially fraudulent votes in the swing states can be successfully challenged by POST-election litigation?
Posted by: Pillage Idiot at October 22, 2024 11:42 AM (HlyYF)

Good question. A couple of Twitter accounts yesterday were showing how that system can be used to create fraudulent ballots, but they didn't seem to have any solutions.

Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (s9EYN)

363 "We definitely have 106% registered voters compared to over 18-year olds, and any assertion otherwise is worse than the Holocaust."
-Michigan's counties

Jocelyn Benson is preventing any review of acknowledged fraudulent voting rolls in Michigan.

Still predicting a big in-your-face cheat, but have no doubt a lawfare plan "B" exists.

Posted by: Auspex at October 22, 2024 11:53 AM (j4U/Z)

364 Thanks, Dave. I wonder how encouraged we should really be by the early voting numbers. Unlike last time, the Trump campaign is strongly encouraging people to vote early. If they do, it may be that a comparable number of Trump votes are just being moved from same-day to early. i.e. given how Trump is promoting, we should expect to see GOP early numbers high.

Posted by: Henry O at October 22, 2024 11:53 AM (X5Mi4)

365 Yes, please also note that “highly educated college graduates” carries no weight, other than to ID those people as note very smart, with terrible judgment and value antithetical to our constitution and specifically The Bill of Rights.

Posted by: Marcus T at October 22, 2024 11:53 AM (oZhq1)

366 Unlike most other countries, the central government doesn't control the cops, and the central government doesn't even control a chunk of the military.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:49 AM (uxCna)

That's not even their biggest problem. With that final loss of legitimacy, taxes stop, and all those Stasi just doing their job are no longer getting paid to do the central government's dirty work.

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 22, 2024 11:53 AM (i24o9)

367 Well Liz Cheney did make it to PA.

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 11:43 AM (CIS44)

Is Liz the dyke...or is that the other daughter?

Posted by: BignJames at October 22, 2024 11:53 AM (Yj6Os)

368 The race isn't close.

Yet, the finish isn't clear.
Posted by: The Central Scrutinizer at October 22, 2024 11:25 AM (KbCG3)

Obfuscation by the media and polls.
The media will continue, the polls have already started shifting in order to prove their relevancy for future customers.

Posted by: Diogenes at October 22, 2024 11:54 AM (W/lyH)

369 363 Jocelyn Benson is preventing any review of acknowledged fraudulent voting rolls in Michigan.

Still predicting a big in-your-face cheat, but have no doubt a lawfare plan "B" exists.
Posted by: Auspex at October 22, 2024 11:53 AM (j4U/Z)

========

If VA goes red, a lot of the cheating will get called off. Don't want to put a target on their back.

But, there are other ways to get it earlish, including WI which seems to be more secure than MI.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:54 AM (GBKbO)

370 336 320 If/when Kamala loses, how long until the 25th is used to get rid of Biden, so Kamala can claim to be President for a little while? I'm guessing less than two weeks, especially if they can get Jill away from the Cabinet for a few days.
Posted by: Hour of the Wolf at October 22, 2024 11:45 AM (VNX3d)

It would be much easier to just hold the pillow tightly over Joe's mouth.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 22, 2024 11:48 AM (wyMQY)

The 25th doesn't create the possibility of criminal charges!

Posted by: Hour of the Wolf at October 22, 2024 11:54 AM (VNX3d)

371 356 Unlike most other countries, the central government doesn't control the cops

When Hitler became Chancellor, Hindenburg only gave the Nazis two Cabinet positions, to keep them under control.

Unfortunately, one of the positions put Goering in control of the Prussian police, and that was all the Nazis needed.
Posted by: The ARC of History! at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (uxCna
You misspelled FBI/CIA.

Posted by: Eromero at October 22, 2024 11:54 AM (OAly5)

372 The democrats are praying for a pandemic. They'll need one to be able to skewer the numbers to the level it will take to beat Trump.

That better be one fast moving plague.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:54 AM (xCA6C)

373 Boobs? There was a Moron T-shirt for that.

Posted by: Ben Had at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (t8vHj)

Please tell me it was boobless. Lie to me, if you must.

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 22, 2024 11:54 AM (i24o9)

374 Bluebell - when they do that they usually are looking at exit polls and early votes. Plus they have daily turnout stats to look at.

If there just aren't enough Republican voters to overcome, they call it
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:50 AM (lLEp5)
----------
Thank you. It has to be exit polls then, because they don't count early votes here (or absentee ballots) until the polls close. And although we don't register by party here, I guess they figure it out somehow.

Still suspicious to me, though.

Posted by: bluebell at October 22, 2024 11:54 AM (79pEw)

375 Harris' "Climate Engagement Director" Accuses Oil and Gas Workers of Weaponizing "White Supremacy" and "Toxic Patriarchy"

-
Well, speaking as toxic male white supremacist, yeah, baby!

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 11:55 AM (L/fGl)

376 where her mouth is and rectify

Candy rim?

Posted by: Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle at October 22, 2024 11:55 AM (i0bTX)

377 Someone recently said that this election is like being in the twin towers on 9-11 and, after the first plane (Biden) has hit, voting for the second plane (Harris) to hit.

Posted by: El Presidente Airlines at October 22, 2024 11:56 AM (qUkBO)

378 Challenge any Kamala voter to give a solid reason why Kamala deserves their vote and they cannot give you a single reason.

Whereas when I voted for PDT in 2016, I had some really good reasons to vote for, but, the best reason was, I was tired of "business as usual" in DC.

DC hates the fact a good portion of the electorate is on to their game, hence the way they've gone after PDT.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:56 AM (tT6L1)

379 I feel Dave's analysis is based upon a thorough analysis of the situation using facts he finds trustworthy. I thank him for his input and appreciate that he is willing to make the effort.

I think the highly educated whites are more than likely bat-sh*t crazy AWFLs and their hen pecked husbands.

Posted by: actually inside the beltway at October 22, 2024 11:56 AM (hWxEy)

380 This reminds me of 2022 and the red wave delusions. SOOOOOO many Christians are either going to stay home (because that's what they do) or they'll vote for Harris because they hate Trump. On top of this, you've got legions of low-information women voters who will turn out for abortion.

Lest anyone accuse me of trolling, I say vote like your life depends on it. Take fellow travelers to the polls with you. But I don't believe these people are going to let Trump back in the Whitehouse under any circumstances. The only favorable projection I'd believe right now are consistent internal polling showing Trump up 5+. And I still think they're going to resurrect the Katie Johnson lawsuit in the 11th hour. Nov 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. She'll come forward, face disguised, in a child-like voice a la CB-F, and tell how Trump raped her on Epstein's plane.

There's no limit to what these people are willing to do.

Posted by: SMFH at October 22, 2024 11:56 AM (U7HiC)

381 Comrade Flounder, ask Sponge.

Posted by: Ben Had at October 22, 2024 11:56 AM (t8vHj)

382 My wife just sent me a picture from the early voting polling location I was at this morning. Line is out the door and down the street.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:56 AM (lLEp5)

383 "You can approximate it based on voting patterns of small subsets of voters like counties and such. It's possible, but it requires a lot of work and isn't THAT precise."

True, to some extent. But as you are familiar with in this neck of the woods, there is a massive influx of folks from mostly the Northeast area of the country. So if they weren't here four years ago, and are voting here now, prior voting patterns become less reliable.

Perhaps a constitutional amendment for elections that one must be a resident for four years before becoming eligible to vote.

Yeh yeh....I know.

But..

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 22, 2024 11:57 AM (a1415)

384 When I was waiting in line to vote yesterday, a GOP worker walked up and asked in a loud voice if anyone needed a GOP sample ballot. I didn't, but I still spoke out loudly that I wanted one.

I swear there was smoke coming from under the collars of some of the people in line ahead of me.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:57 AM (xCA6C)

385 Ben Had and others: I couldn't make it to Corsicana (but plan to in '25) because of a family obligation.
However, the road trip has given me opportunity to travel a lot of back roads through rural Missouri (which is beautiful, BTW) and I've enjoyed seeing an abundance of Trump yard signs, flags, banners and hay bales with only a smattering in favor of Old Lady Emhoff.

I know it's a purely anecdotal indicator, but still, it's nice to see.

Posted by: Quarter Twenty at October 22, 2024 11:57 AM (VfYIb)

386 Polliwog the 'Ette

Sigh!

Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 22, 2024 11:58 AM (u82oZ)

387
I am starting to see the undeniable leftists in my social media feeds adopting a moral scold posture.

They are not longer touting and praising Red Kammie to the skies, but they are tut-tutting and harrumphing about PDJT's moral and personality flaws (as they view them). There's lots of the attitude of "I'm so disappointed in the MAGA people". They'll exhaust their annual quota of "SMHs" before Election Day, at this rate.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at October 22, 2024 11:58 AM (xG4kz)

388 382 My wife just sent me a picture from the early voting polling location I was at this morning. Line is out the door and down the street.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:56 AM (lLEp5)

========

I keep watching Alachua County.

No real reason other than I lived there as a child, but the even split (slight advantage D in early voting) fascinates me.

I also lived in Polk County, but that doesn't interest me as much. Much more predictable there, it seems.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:58 AM (GBKbO)

389
If they do, it may be that a comparable number of Trump votes are just being moved from same-day to early. i.e. given how Trump is promoting, we should expect to see GOP early numbers high.

The (R)'s are ignoring Trump in Pennsylvania. Twice as many (D)'s as (R)'s have requested and turned in mail-ballots.

I'm doing the same thing. So far. It might change.

Posted by: Civic Classifier at October 22, 2024 11:58 AM (MwtZ5)

390 As a denizen of the Occupied Territory of NOVA I can attest I haven't seen more than a dozen Harris/Walz signs or stickers. This is remarkably odd.

Posted by: Pudinhead at October 22, 2024 11:58 AM (AdHga)

391 I don't have to worry about angering any Democrats where I live. This county will go something like 85% PDT and GOP.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:58 AM (tT6L1)

392 This is because some people on here couldn’t separate analysis from a person.

I wonder whether they thought that 2020 was legit or that DiF was on the chat group talking about where the cheat would be used and, therefore, should have known that they'd generate a ludicrous number of fake votes and every single court in the country would refuse to see data.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at October 22, 2024 11:59 AM (ExV1e)

393 That better be one fast moving plague.
Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 11:54 AM (xCA6C)

On it!

Posted by: Fauci at October 22, 2024 11:59 AM (hmOfI)

394 383 True, to some extent. But as you are familiar with in this neck of the woods, there is a massive influx of folks from mostly the Northeast area of the country. So if they weren't here four years ago, and are voting here now, prior voting patterns become less reliable.

Perhaps a constitutional amendment for elections that one must be a resident for four years before becoming eligible to vote.

Yeh yeh....I know.

But..
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 22, 2024 11:57 AM (a1415)

=======

I spent almost no time in Summerville when I lived there (wistful glance out the window).

But my suspicion, which I've asserted more than once, is that the great migration starting in 2020 was conservatives finally bailing on blue states.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 11:59 AM (GBKbO)

395 blake, hope you are feeling better.

Posted by: Ben Had at October 22, 2024 12:00 PM (t8vHj)

396 Henry O - That has been looked at. Large percentage of early votes are also first time voters.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 12:00 PM (lLEp5)

397 As a denizen of the Occupied Territory of NOVA I can attest I haven't seen more than a dozen Harris/Walz signs or stickers. This is remarkably odd.

Alas, most of them are in my neighbor's yard.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 12:00 PM (xCA6C)

398 don't have to worry about angering any Democrats where I live. This county will go something like 85% PDT and GOP.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:58 AM (tT6L1)

So will this county, but my road has four (4!) Harris signs. Along with two comical "Vote!" signs, encouraging people to vote, like they voted for Harris, I guess.

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 22, 2024 12:00 PM (i24o9)

399 My wife just sent me a picture from the early voting polling location I was at this morning. Line is out the door and down the street.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 11:56 AM (lLEp5)

I waited 1.5 hours in line on Friday.

Posted by: mrp at October 22, 2024 12:00 PM (rj6Yv)

400 I don't have to worry about angering any Democrats where I live. This county will go something like 85% PDT and GOP.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 11:58 AM (tT6L1)

I was in America last week...it's nice!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 22, 2024 12:00 PM (d9fT1)

401 Ok, about time for Ace to start the day.

Thanks for indulging me everyone 😊

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 22, 2024 12:00 PM (lLEp5)

402 I find it fascinating the moral scolds of the left can castigate PDT for his sins while completely ignoring how Kamala got her start.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 12:01 PM (tT6L1)

403 Ok, about time for Ace to start the day.

Thanks for indulging me everyone

Please continue to impose with frequent updates.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 12:01 PM (xCA6C)

404 Thank you, Dave.

Posted by: Ben Had at October 22, 2024 12:01 PM (t8vHj)

405 Winning!

Caitlin Clark Effect: WNBA Was Forecast To Lose $50 Million This Season, Instead They’ll Lose Just $40 Million

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 12:01 PM (L/fGl)

406 As long as I don't see "doesn't have a path" regarding *any* race in any state, I'll be happy.

Still have nightmares after AZ.

Posted by: McLurkerson at October 22, 2024 12:02 PM (CjgNg)

407 "But my suspicion, which I've asserted more than once, is that the great migration starting in 2020 was conservatives finally bailing on blue states."

I tend to agree with you. Most of the recent arrivals are more like refugees than missionaries from up there.

But....till proven otherwise, I tend to give them a wide berth till I get a better feel for them as an individual

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 22, 2024 12:02 PM (a1415)

408 Remember it's fine for Democrats to be immoral scum because they aren't "hypocrites" about it.

Posted by: ... at October 22, 2024 12:02 PM (hmOfI)

409 Oh, and thanks Mr. In_Florida. Good read.

Posted by: McLurkerson at October 22, 2024 12:02 PM (CjgNg)

410 396 - Oh, OK, that's encouraging. Thank you, Dave!

Posted by: Henry O at October 22, 2024 12:02 PM (X5Mi4)

411 Sounds great, but we did not get the Red Wave we were promised in 2022.

Posted by: Hadsil at October 22, 2024 12:02 PM (dBI7o)

412 Most blue state migration has been conservative; except for retiring teachers. Lots of teachers have rich retirement benefits and absolutely no common sense.

Posted by: Field Marshal Zhukov at October 22, 2024 12:02 PM (wBaIH)

413 I saw a smattering of Harris signs in Houston. But when you get out into real Texas, they’re were as rare as a cogent, truthful sentence from a Democrat.

Posted by: Marcus T at October 22, 2024 12:03 PM (oZhq1)

414
If Trump wins by a narrow margin, the word will be that it represents no mandate.

If Harris wins by exactly the same margin, the word will be this is a mandate for every extreme measure the Democrats can think of.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at October 22, 2024 12:03 PM (EsZUh)

415 How were the polls for the 1980 election? Because this feels like the 1980 election

Posted by: 18-1 at October 22, 2024 12:03 PM (oZhjI)

416 Boobs? There was a Moron T-shirt for that.
Posted by: Ben Had at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (t8vHj)

I was impressed by the subtly of the shirts.

Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at October 22, 2024 12:04 PM (s9EYN)

417 Sharon(willow's apprentice)

Your deep conversational skills and amazing hugs were such a draw. Duty is a harsh master, alas.

Next year in Corsicana we will dance.

Pillage Idiot said your knee was sore, so only slow dances.

** Shouts at sky **
I should have been there.

I will sent you an email with my text phone number. Only Google, FBI, and NSA have it, outside my close circle of trusted friends.

Mossad should keep an eye on my nic when I post to the blog potential Op Plans for them. But they don't have my call phone number.

Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 22, 2024 12:04 PM (u82oZ)

418 I'm in CA. Already voted by mail.. Not that my vote counts...

Posted by: It's me donna at October 22, 2024 12:04 PM (IyPmt)

419 Ben Had, I'm doing well, thank you for asking. I seem to be coming out the other side of what I had.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 12:05 PM (tT6L1)

420 Trump made a big push for early voting. So these numbers shouldn’t be surpassing. But I’m not sure what it really means. It’s just cannibalizing Election Day voted which is traditionally very Republican.

The question is are these new voters or the same voters just voting on a different day?

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 12:05 PM (ekupY)

421 TRUMP!

Posted by: MAGA_Ken at October 22, 2024 12:05 PM (EJ1D2)

422 Consistent with Sunshine Dave's analysis:

RCP betting sites odds are now Trump +20.4 this morning. On August 19th, RCP betting sites (7 sites are aggregated) had Harris +8.

Bettors holding Harris-to-win are covering their bets while it's still possible to do so.

I believe the betting odds will soon collapse altogether, as Harris bettors cash out en masse.

Posted by: mnw at October 22, 2024 12:06 PM (NLIak)

423 120 But DU told me just last week they were flipping FL easily
---
Oh yeah, that one was awesome.
Several weeks back the loons there were giddy over that with one reporting from San Diego that "TX and FL are definitely in play as our local group were writing post cards to voters there."

Completely oblivious to the reality it was make-work to keep those idiots busy and as far away from any close race as possible.

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at October 22, 2024 12:06 PM (6miZe)

424 Village Idiot's Apprentice

Top o ta mornin to ya, gov'nor.

Way to go, keeping up 4 miles a day. You da Man!

Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 22, 2024 12:06 PM (u82oZ)

425 415 How were the polls for the 1980 election? Because this feels like the 1980 election

Posted by: 18-1 at October 22, 2024 12:03 PM (oZhjI)

The cheating in 1980 was much subtler. I don't see the left coast going to Trump.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 12:06 PM (ynpvh)

426 Tho edgy~!

@LeadingReport 1m
BREAKING: Rapper Eminem to appear at a Kamala Harris rally in Detroit.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 22, 2024 12:06 PM (IG4Id)

427 418 I'm in CA. Already voted by mail.. Not that my vote counts...

Posted by: It's me donna at October 22, 2024 12:04 PM (IyPmt)

I haven't voted yet. My vote won't count in Purple Sandy Eggo.

Green Eggs & Ham >>> Purple Sandy Eggo

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (ynpvh)

428 I want Trump to win in a landslide

- AND -

I want the Democrats to get caught cheating on a massive scale that exposes, even to the LIVs, how utterly corrupt they are and results in the passage of nation-wide voting integrity measures that turns the US into Florida and tosses the Democrat Party onto the ash heap of history where it belongs.

Posted by: Anti-Faucist at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (qUkBO)

429 426 Tho edgy~!

@LeadingReport 1m
BREAKING: Rapper Eminem to appear at a Kamala Harris rally in Detroit.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 22, 2024 12:06 PM (IG4Id)

======

Eminem makes it very clear that he's establishment and corporate.

Corporate is not cool.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (GBKbO)

430 BREAKING: Rapper Eminem to appear at a Kamala Harris rally in Detroit.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 22, 2024 12:06 PM (IG4Id)
--------------

Eminem? Heck, while Kamala is at it, might as well pull in Vanilla Ice for some real rapper relevance.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (tT6L1)

431 >>i just saw a Tweet that said there are 180,000 newly registered Amish voters in PA. Sounds incredible

-------------------

Yes it's incredible. There aren't 180,000 total Amish in PA, let alone 180K newly registered voters.

Posted by: Bigsmith at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (1Au9i)

432 Wow, Eminem is still a thing?

Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (v6JzV)

433 “ It’s just cannibalizing Election Day voted which is traditionally very Republican.”

Hahahahahaha
*breaths*
Hahahahahaha

Yeah. No. Registrations are way up for Republicans. There are active efforts under new GOP leadership to get people to the polls who don’t vote on a regular basis. Participation by those people is already up.

But you keep holding that chicken by the gills.

Posted by: Marcus T at October 22, 2024 12:08 PM (oZhq1)

434 428 I want the Democrats to get caught cheating on a massive scale that exposes, even to the LIVs, how utterly corrupt they are and results in the passage of nation-wide voting integrity measures that turns the US into Florida and tosses the Democrat Party onto the ash heap of history where it belongs.
Posted by: Anti-Faucist at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (qUkBO)

=======

Even if Trump wins, he cannot do what he did in 2016 and just let things like the Jill Stein lawsuit die.

Imagine a 2028 where Detroit, Philly, and even Chicago have been denied the ability to manage their own elections anymore, essentially being put into receivership for their elections.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 12:08 PM (GBKbO)

435 In the 2020 election, Harris County went 56% Biden/Harris and 43% Trump/Pence.

Posted by: Count de Monet at October 22, 2024 12:08 PM (Aqu9a)

436 432 Wow, Eminem is still a thing?
Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (v6JzV)

Not particularly.. Really scraping the bottom of the barrel

Posted by: It's me donna at October 22, 2024 12:08 PM (IyPmt)

437 OMG. Cartoon-wise:

Donald's hair on a Big Maga (Mac) The most glorious Big Mac ever.

Kamala hair on a Kamalarby's (roast beef with sauce draining down)

😂😂😂 Savage.

Posted by: rickb223 Gold & Silver Spot Prices at October 22, 2024 12:08 PM (fzdyS)

438 BREAKING: Rapper Eminem to appear at a Kamala Harris rally in Detroit.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 22, 2024

***
He's still alive?

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 12:08 PM (J2vNu)

439 433 “ It’s just cannibalizing Election Day voted which is traditionally very Republican.”

Hahahahahaha
*breaths*
Hahahahahaha

Yeah. No. Registrations are way up for Republicans. There are active efforts under new GOP leadership to get people to the polls who don’t vote on a regular basis. Participation by those people is already up.

But you keep holding that chicken by the gills.
Posted by: Marcus T at October 22, 2024 12:08 PM (oZhq1)

=======

The "cannibalization" numbers for both parties where available are...kind of even. Democrats tend to be doing worse, but it's not by a whole lot.

It's a bullshit argument pulled from thin air.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 12:09 PM (GBKbO)

440 Wow, Eminem is still a thing?
Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (v6JzV)

No.

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 12:09 PM (CIS44)

441 Salty!

Still working it in the morning.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 22, 2024 12:09 PM (a1415)

442 Wow, Eminem is still a thing?
Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at October 22, 2024 12:07 PM (v6JzV)

No.
Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 12:09 PM (CIS44)

Other than his daughter Haley-Jade recently got married.

Posted by: BruceWayne at October 22, 2024 12:09 PM (CIS44)

443 In LA there are professional signs: "Harris/Walz Obviously"

Transcendently smug assholes.

Posted by: Field Marshal Zhukov at October 22, 2024 12:09 PM (wBaIH)

444 The difference in the surrogates each party chooses is pretty telling.

Posted by: Sharon(willow's apprentice) at October 22, 2024 12:10 PM (t/2Uw)

445 Why does kumsucker have to have a rally in Detroit?

Posted by: Ben Had at October 22, 2024 12:10 PM (t8vHj)

446 I will vote early in Texas this time. Early voting began yesterday. I have always voted on Election Day for POTUS because I considered it appropriate. This time I will follow Trump's recommendation to vote early.

Posted by: Gref at October 22, 2024 12:10 PM (aBgBM)

447 Boobs? There was a Moron T-shirt for that.

Met a lady motorcyclist whose shirt had printed upside down, as if to be read over her shoulde by passenger, under left boob was "clutch", right boob said "brake". Grab on, boys!

Posted by: Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle at October 22, 2024 12:10 PM (i0bTX)

448 Nood

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 22, 2024 12:10 PM (i24o9)

449 Imagine a 2028 where Detroit, Philly, and even Chicago have been denied the ability to manage their own elections anymore, essentially being put into receivership for their elections.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, finding suspense, madness, and humanity with Michael Powell at October 22, 2024 12:08 PM (GBKbO)

Yes...it's called the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 22, 2024 12:10 PM (d9fT1)

450 What's an Eminem?

Posted by: Most people at October 22, 2024 12:11 PM (VfYIb)

451 Chris Cillizza has a sadz that people don't trust the MSM.

Chris Cillizza@ChrisCillizza
Devastating.
And a massive problem for a healthy democracy.

-
Two thoughts.

1) Sweet, sweet liberal tears.

2) If only they could figure out what was causing it.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, I've Been Through the Desert On a Horse With No Shame at October 22, 2024 12:11 PM (L/fGl)

452 Eminem's Eight Mile movie was enough to convince me never to go near Detroit. The cityscapes were so depressing I hated the movie just for that.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 12:11 PM (J2vNu)

453 Mossad should keep an eye on my nic when I post to the blog potential Op Plans for them. But they don't have my call phone number.
Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 22, 2024 12:04 PM (u82oZ)

Mr. NaCly, did you see my back channel communication on Oct 10?

Posted by: Emmie at October 22, 2024 12:11 PM (Sf2cq)

454 Imagine a 2028 where Detroit, Philly, and even Chicago have been denied the ability to manage their own elections anymore, essentially being put into receivership for their elections.

If I could do one thing besides close the border and deport, it would be this. I've had a bellyful of these cheaters deciding elections for themselves.

Posted by: Archimedes at October 22, 2024 12:11 PM (xCA6C)

455 I tend to agree with the migration being refugees. In my area we’ve laid a lot of recent Californians move in. 10ish years ago it was generally Republican but the odd Democrat would win a state house race or county commissioner seat. Nowadays it’s 100% red with 60-40 margins across the board.

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 12:11 PM (ekupY)

456 @342

>>Trump could fill any Seattle arena, just like Madison Square Garden. Sigh...wish-casting probably...

Seattle is one of my favorite walking cities, it's like a mini-NYC but cleaner, although the homeless in Seattle are some of the most aggressive I've ever experienced, even more aggressive than NY or Philly and that's saying something.

Posted by: Thomas Bender at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (XV/Pl)

457 But when our elections resemble fucking MLB All-Star voting, yeah, all bets are off.

Which is exactly why it has been engineered this way.

All to stop one man.
Posted by: The Central Scrutinizer at October 22, 2024 11:52 AM (KbCG3)

Well, actchully, they mean to stop us. He's just in the way.

Posted by: Just Lily at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (aDMGZ)

458 BTW, today is the first time I have ever voted early. Traditionalist voter here.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (a1415)

459 443 In LA there are professional signs: "Harris/Walz Obviously"

Transcendently smug assholes.

Posted by: Field Marshal Zhukov at October 22, 2024 12:09 PM (wBaIH)

LA has amazingly large cemeteries...and metric shit-tons of illegals...

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (ynpvh)

460 Outside Harris County, going west and north, I didn’t see a single sign for Harris. Not one.

Posted by: Marcus T at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (oZhq1)

461 What's an Eminem?
Posted by: Most people at October 22, 2024

***
Candy-coated chocolate made by Mars Corporation. Very tasty and addictive.

Oh. Wait.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (J2vNu)

462 Polling in this election is fascinating, and I'd love to break it down/analyze it in depth after the election.

I firmly believe Trump is winning big enough to mitigate the steal. I also think we'll see something like ME or VA go to Trump on election night, eliminating Harris' path to victory (they are counting on those states).

That said, I wonder how accurate thepolling is with respect to the infamous "shy Trump voter". In 2016 and 2020 it was pretty solid, but a part of me thinks it's less of a factor this time. There are more and more people who were out and openly MAGA. It makes me wonder if the polls aren't closer to right than we saw in the last two presidential elections.

But if that's the case, then it's still bad news for Harris, who is tied in a race that she needs to be leading by 2 or 3 points, not because of shy Trump voters, but because of the Dem vote padding in CA, IL, and NY.

...but then again, maybe Trump is racking up more support in those three states this time than he did in 16 or 20. He isn't going to win those three states, but he might only lose by 5-10 instead of 15-20.

Posted by: Shenanigans at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (pZ0Mr)

463 I voted today in Connecticut! A lotta good that'll do Trump....

Posted by: CTHillary, dead but dreaming at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (zSyrn)

464 Let's Humpty Dance again
Like we did last millennia.

Posted by: Digital Underground at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (Aqu9a)

465 Funny anecdote regarding Eminem...a gal I dated way back when mentioned that her dad looked somewhat like Eminem. I said to her, "Yeah, but your dad is far tougher than Eminem will ever be."

When she objected, mentioning where Eminem grew up I pointed out her dad survived getting shot up in Vietnam.

game, set, match, me.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at October 22, 2024 12:13 PM (tT6L1)

466 So now rappers will sing about banging women in their 60s.

Posted by: Humphreyrobot at October 22, 2024 12:13 PM (J8LnB)

467 390 As a denizen of the Occupied Territory of NOVA I can attest I haven't seen more than a dozen Harris/Walz signs or stickers. This is remarkably odd.
Posted by: Pudinhead at October 22, 2024 11:58 AM (AdHga
For the cost of 100 yard signs, the dems can probably buy 10 mules.

Posted by: Eromero at October 22, 2024 12:13 PM (OAly5)

468 Rapper Eminem to appear at a Kamala Harris rally in Detroit.

Wiggers for Harris!

Posted by: Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle at October 22, 2024 12:13 PM (i0bTX)

469 Kumswala had that video with a 90s SNL character and now Eminem whose peak was early 2000s. It’s almost like she wants to back to a Time when America was kinda great.

Posted by: Settled Science at October 22, 2024 12:14 PM (ekupY)

470 461 What's an Eminem?
Posted by: Most people at October 22, 2024

***

$20. Same as in town.

Posted by: Obligatory at October 22, 2024 12:14 PM (VfYIb)

471 Noodus ace cheneyata

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at October 22, 2024 12:14 PM (J2vNu)

472 And as someone said in the Morning Report thread, the $64 dollar question is - what will people do when Kamala is proclaimed the winner? I know what I think will happen.

But I won't clog up the thread with my depression. See you all later.

Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing (aka Eloquent Depression) at October 22, 2024 11:13 AM (Q0kLU)
==
I think the response will be much different than what you dread. It won't be overtly violent or even that noisy. I think you will see a very firm and steady ignoring of federal authority by red state authorities. And a huge number of 10th Amendment cases start percolating through the system. And if Harris would be so stupid as to forcibly respond, a much more direct response to any federal authority at all.

Posted by: Black JEM at October 22, 2024 12:14 PM (GZYu7)

473 So i guess Eminem was at the Diddy parties then?

Posted by: 18-1 at October 22, 2024 12:15 PM (oZhjI)

474 Emmie, I did not.

Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 22, 2024 12:15 PM (u82oZ)

475 ...but then again, maybe Trump is racking up more support in those three states this time than he did in 16 or 20. He isn't going to win those three states, but he might only lose by 5-10 instead of 15-20.
Posted by: Shenanigans at October 22, 2024 12:12 PM (pZ0Mr)

I think the "Shy MAGA" vote is as big this election as it has been in 2016 and 2020. My guess is that "Shy MAGA" vote has shifted leftward on the political spectrum - traditional Dems who have said "enough" with radical transgenderism and mainstream Dem antisemitism.

Posted by: mrp at October 22, 2024 12:18 PM (rj6Yv)

476 Looking at Colorado on that second map I am proposing a new state anthem:

♫

An Autumn day-ay-ay
In a cold and bleak November
I-I-I-I am alo-o-one
Gazing from my mountains
To red states all around
On a sadly fallen, rocky patch of ground

I'm dumb as a rock...
I am an island

Posted by: muldoon at October 22, 2024 12:20 PM (uCfKO)

477 The ONLY reason Trump won PA in 2016 was because WI came in and it didn't matter. They were 100% going to pull a 2020 there to the point where even Hillary or her surrogate said something like "stay tuned" when it was obvious she was done. What did they mean? It meant they had the means and opportunity to "flip" PA. They refused to call it for hours when she was losing by more than the vote that was left to count.
----
I lived in PA at the time. I don't doubt for a moment that the Dems would have pulled off a steal in 2016, but in my opinion, they were caught completely flatfooted. They thought Hillary had it in the bag, they didn't have time to gin up the fake ballots. Also, there was no mail voting (except absentee), so no thousands of miracle ballots showing up a month later.

Posted by: Midnight Rambler at October 22, 2024 12:25 PM (1dC1+)

478 There are strong demographic similarities between the three states (WI, MI, PA) that make it unlikely they will vote in different directions in a given election.

Hillary always claimed that Jill Stein was a spoiler in 2016 because if Stein's votes had gone to Hillary in those States she would have won the Presidency. It's a false argument.

If you're going to give Stein's votes to Hillary, then you have to give McMullan's votes to Trump and - BANG! - Trump keeps Wisconsin and the Presidency. There is an edge of a difference among those three States, and any of them can topple in either direction on a moment's notice. I don't agree to clump the three of 'em together.

Posted by: LCMS Rulz! at October 22, 2024 12:40 PM (bufu1)

479 Let's hope so, and don't get cocky....

Posted by: Rowsdower and Batman have had it up to HERE with these damn juggalos and still think Ray Epps is a f at October 22, 2024 12:41 PM (tzYsy)

480 Kumswala's sister is way hotter than her, even compared to her Willie Brown days.

And they both went black, except Kumswala went back.

Posted by: haffhowershower at October 22, 2024 12:50 PM (NMT5x)

481 I'm dumb as a rock...
I am an island
Posted by: muldoon at October 22, 2024 12:20 PM (uCfKO)

Groovy!
A nice beat and you can dance to it.

Posted by: Diogenes at October 22, 2024 12:59 PM (W/lyH)

482 Great analysis. Some points...

-The ballot rejection rate, before 2020, was something like 5%. Because of all the mail in, Covid nonsense in 2020, it dropped to maybe 2-3%. If that is tightened up even a bit, Trump wins because mail in favors Dem voters (and probably invalid ones at that).

2. Turnout will be high. Every other NFL ad is telling people to get out and vote. I'm suspicious of that because the NFL is stupidly woke, but since NFL viewers are every demographic group except liberal, white women, if this means black men, white men, and hispanic men turn out highly, Trump wins.

3. New Hampshire will not go to Trump. I'm in Mass., and too many people left the State during Covid and went to places like NH and Maine. And they took their politics with them. NH is almost blue now. I think New Mexico is similar, but I'm not out West so can't be sure. MN is blue, too. Too many red voters left after Covid and George Floyd and the dissent of MN into progressive anarchy. If you read Powerline Blog, whose authors are all MN lawyers, you'll realize it's unlikely to go to Trump.

4. 312 electoral votes is plenty. Would be nice to get as high as 347, but I'm not sure I quite see that.

Posted by: Lex at October 22, 2024 01:01 PM (fMN7A)

483 If only Dave's words come true, be still my beating heart. I'll vote this week only because Trump has asked for people to vote early. I just so love voting on election day. It makes me realize how fortunate I am to live in the US.

Posted by: Joyce at October 22, 2024 01:09 PM (Uy/WF)

484 )) Hot girls are waiting for you on -- www.Nu21.eu

Posted by: Malena at October 22, 2024 01:17 PM (X/wbi)

485 Valuable analysis, Dave, thx! I am in FL, too. (Polk)

Posted by: JewishOdysseus at October 22, 2024 01:31 PM (bvp+i)

486 I'm ready! Thanks, Dave!

Posted by: IronDave at October 22, 2024 01:38 PM (k3crU)

487 If Trump wins Minnesota (where I have lived for 34 years) I will throw a party.

Posted by: JohnFNotKerry at October 22, 2024 02:01 PM (135Mn)

488 I'm going on record to say Trump could win New Jersey.

Posted by: the other coyote at October 22, 2024 02:18 PM (oGPcA)

489 According to the Interstate Popular VOte Compact, if Trump wins 50% + 1 vote, Minnesota (as well as every other blue state) will be obligated to give him their votes. That would be the finest meal of irony in many lifetimes.

Posted by: Swmac at October 22, 2024 02:43 PM (So2j7)

490 There's no reality in which Trump wins MN.

The place is a cesspool of toxic, deranged leftism, just like Maine is now.

I also remember dave saying that "there's no universe in which Trump wins FL but doesn't win GA" in 2020. So pardon me if I'm a bit skeptical of this ridiculously rosy analysis.

Posted by: Defenestratus at October 22, 2024 03:03 PM (RpSpT)

491 Husband and I both voted for Trump this weekend in the People's Republic of Oregon. Dropped our ballots off directly, don't trust the mailman since their union endorsed Harris.

Posted by: MammaB at October 22, 2024 03:06 PM (0oT/b)

492 I also remember dave saying that "there's no universe in which Trump wins FL but doesn't win GA" in 2020. So pardon me if I'm a bit skeptical of this ridiculously rosy analysis.

Posted by: Defenestratus at October 22, 2024 03:03 PM (RpSpT)

So, you think they shut down the counting system, kicked out all the observers, had a fake water main break, and had deliveries of fake ballots in the middle of the night, because BIDEN legitimately won GA? That Biden gave a Medal of Freedom Award to the woman who was caught on video feeding ballots she pulled out from under a desk through a counting machine multiple times - because she was a good person?

Bless your heart.

Posted by: MrExcitement at October 22, 2024 03:12 PM (hOOi9)

493 I'll read all comments later.

Dave,
It was a pleasure to meet and speak with you in person. I hope to see you again next year.

Posted by: lin-duh who owns one at October 22, 2024 03:21 PM (1yY5C)

494 I hope to god you are right! Quite literally the free world DEPENDS on the right result!

Posted by: Mailman at October 22, 2024 03:29 PM (wwwrF)

495 "3. New Hampshire will not go to Trump."

Posted by: Lex at October 22, 2024 01:01 PM (fMN7A)

I second this. I'm in NH, and although Massholes have been heavily colonizing the southern part of it since the mid-90's, it really picked up during the scamdemic. They also tend to be the CA locust types and not the sane refugees that make states redder. We voted red pretty reliably up until the Dubya-Kerry election.

I'm also convinced that there's organized fraud going on in Manchester and Concord because it makes zero sense that most of our state elected offices are Republican but every federal office is a Democrat.

Posted by: MrUNIVAC at October 22, 2024 03:56 PM (lHQOK)

496 489 According to the Interstate Popular VOte Compact, if Trump wins 50% + 1 vote, Minnesota (as well as every other blue state) will be obligated to give him their votes. That would be the finest meal of irony in many lifetimes.
Posted by: Swmac at October 22, 2024 02:43 PM (So2j7)

I'm not sure, but I thought last I heard that a certain number of states had to sign on for that to be effective, and it wasn't there.

But if it DID happen, that would certainly be hilarious. The same people who pushed for it all those years would be challenging it as unconstitutional, which it probably is.

Then again, if that happened with Trump (or any R) winning, the R would have the electoral college vote either way - it's just a matter of making it an electoral college landslide.

Posted by: MrExcitement at October 22, 2024 04:35 PM (hOOi9)

497 When I looked at the first map, I thought "what about VA and NM"? Then, viola!, I saw the second map.

It seems to me that there were rumblings all along about Trump being competitive in VA, and they didn't end up with a R gov by being solid "blue". I've heard recent stories of election integrity improvements in VA, so I'm guessing that the VA in 2024 is going to be like WI and MI in 2016 - a Trump victory that the pundits didn't see coming.

I remember Sydney Powell saying that NM isn't really the "blue" state we've been gaslighted into thinking it is. They have used election fraud to give the impression that it slowly turned blue over the years. But to find that out, the election fraud system in NM would have to be short-circuited, and I haven't heard anything to suggest that happened.

In all cases, the main thing is whether - as in 2016 - the main thrust of the election fraud system is undermined, as I expect it will be. Maybe we'll get to see how people have really been voting this time.

Posted by: MrExcitement at October 22, 2024 07:02 PM (hOOi9)

498 "Maine-state"?

Posted by: DavidD at October 22, 2024 09:11 PM (MSTeU)

499 Trump isn't winning NV. Too many blues and Dems there to rig it who are familiar with decades of mafia-rigging of the count whenever necessary.

If he someone does win NV, he'll get well over 312 EVs.

Just need all the states he won last time plus PA and GA for the win. Sprinkle in some MI and AZ, sure, to make it obvious but not even necessary.

Posted by: horn at October 23, 2024 05:18 PM (CJG+6)

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