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Polling In 2020 [By - Dave In Florida]
Polls … uh … What are the good for? Absolutely nothing!
I think most of us remember my terrible predictions of a Romney victory in 2012. I literally hid for 6 months after that, out of shame. I did finally delurk and made a few comments during the 2014 election. I was pretty active during 2016 as one of the few pointing out that Trump could win, by pointing to polls like the LA Times/USC poll that used a different methodology. I was also correct regarding both Rick Scott and DeSantis in 2018. In 2012 I trusted the information that was contained in polls, and I learned the hard way how bad they can be. Polling is broken. There are a number of problems with the polling industry, but the biggest problem they are dealing with is response rate. Prior to 2000, polling was done primarily through random dial landline calling and they would get a response rate of 50%. That means half the people they contacted would answer their questions. The response rate today is 2%. 98 out of every 100 attempts to reach a voter is rejected. Of those that do respond, there is a very high sampling bias toward young, female, white Democrats. One of the pollsters I admire right now is Rich Baris, and he said, “the very first Republican I get to respond to every poll sounds like a Bill Kristol clone”. Getting a representative sample of the electorate is HARD. And that is the key to polling, you are getting a single person to be a proxy for the voting intentions of about 10,000 people. If you don’t get a truly representative sample, then you don’t have an accurate picture, before you even attempt to apply demographic weighting. You need age, ethnicity, class, values, income, genealogy, location, etc etc. A middle-class voter in Bucks County PA has a completely different voting profile than a middle-class voter in Greene County PA. To compensate for the problems with response rates, polling firms have begun to use multiple “modes” of sampling. They use online polls, text messages, phone calls with a redirect to web sites, emails, direct voice with same ethnicity interviewers, automated response polling, and others I probably don’t even know about. Note that the LA Times/USC poll that I mention above was an interesting attempt at a new mode, since they had a fixed pool for 3200 voters that they sampled every week. The better pollsters will use multiple modes, because each mode has its own inherent sampling bias. Young millennial women are much more likely to answer an online poll. A good pollster will also do oversampling. They will keep polling until they have enough of the representative demographics, and then will discard the extra responses from demographics that are overrepresented. This bring us to the next problem. How do you know what a representative sample is? Every pollster works with a voter file. These are databases that are compiled after every election based on voter records. They are correlated with marketing data to produce a profile of the demographic makeup of every precinct, town, city, region, and state in the country. The interesting thing about the voter file is that it can often tell you when a respondent is lying to you. They will tell you their voting history and you can look directly into the voter file to see they are not being truthful. So with a representative sample and a good voter file, you can get a good idea of how a region or state will vote. And this almost never happens. There are many reasons why, but at the core is the inability to get a representative sample. Right now, the one demographic that is brutally hard to sample is working class males. If a poll gets a sample at all, they will get perhaps 1 for every 20 college educated, age 30-45, white, Democrat women. When polls are wrong it is often because they have over represented a demographic or used the wrong demographic as a proxy. Many polls will consider a hipster working at Starbucks and a factory worker to both be a working-class male. But they don’t vote the same at all. By the way, this working-class male vote that is so hard to sample? They will vote for Trump 65-30. And these are just the polls that are getting bad results from sampling errors. There is also tremendous pressure on pollsters to generate results that are favorable in the opinion of their clients. During 2016, the best media pollster, in terms of predicting the correct outcome of the election, was ORC. They were polling for CNN. CNN fired them for being right. There are legitimate reports of pollsters deliberately targeting a bad sample in order to inflate polls. And there are rumors of some well-known pollsters deliberately faking results. Nate Silver is an enabler in this game by giving poor ratings to polling firms that deviate from the “consensus” while giving provably bad polls an “A rating”. Nate Silver waxed poetic over polls that Nate Cohn did for the New York Times, which included counties in Pennsylvania voting for Biden that have never voted for a Democrat. Meanwhile, last weekend he manufactured an excuse to exclude Trafalgar from his models. Ironically, it turns out that polling is one of the least accurate indicators of election results. Factors that have historically done a better job of predicting elections include the Norpath model, the Gallup “better off than 4 years ago” number, incumbent vote share during primaries, and new voter registration advantage. Even the results of Ohio and Florida are more predictive than polling, since other than JFK, no president has ever won without winning at least one of them. Finally, let me mention that it is often possible to verify if a poll is correct or not just by checking against known quantities. We saw this problem with recent Michigan polls where the polls were showing that Democrats were self-reporting that they had already voted at a 3:1 rate over Republicans. The problem with that poll is that you could check against actual voting records and see that the early voting was at a 1:1 ratio. Obviously, the poll is wrong. We are seeing the same things in both Texas and Florida right now, where polls are being released that are mathematically impossible given known data from early vote totals reported by the states. The bottom line is that the polling industry is broken right now, and possibly just as corrupt as our other institutions. You should not be putting faith in public polling, especially when the polling contradicts other historical indicators. I am hoping that this election will finally cause the industry to take a hard look at itself. But I doubt that it will. There is no downside to getting a poll wrong, you still get paid. And probably get paid more.Comments
(Jump to bottom of comments)Posted by: eastofsuez at October 30, 2020 06:52 PM (jko0s)
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 30, 2020 06:52 PM (KnJdm)
Posted by: AlaBAMA at October 30, 2020 06:53 PM (3aLWR)
Posted by: one of the quiet ones at October 30, 2020 06:53 PM (3GzTP)
Posted by: Curly Shuffle at October 30, 2020 06:53 PM (ch6++)
Posted by: Christopher Wray at October 30, 2020 06:53 PM (tX2OH)
Posted by: JQ at October 30, 2020 06:54 PM (whOIk)
Posted by: Miss Quito at October 30, 2020 06:54 PM (1dZ1f)
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 30, 2020 06:54 PM (3D/fK)
Warmer than normal and dry condition for the western two-thirds of the U.S.
Toasty in California, the southwest, the central and southern Plains states, the Gulf Coast and Florida. The only locations that will be below freezing will be northern New England and New York.
Precipitation? Almost nothing except for a few New England sprinkles.
Even Seattle will be dry(!)
Posted by: Willowed (by Cliff Mass, WA) at October 30, 2020 06:55 PM (BBWrU)
Posted by: AlaBAMA at October 30, 2020 06:55 PM (3aLWR)
After I saw "Unforgiven," as the credits were rolling, I said to my wife, "No one's gonna notice what Gene Hackman just did there! He's a genius, and never gets recognition."
...And then he got the Oscar for it.
Yeah, it's embarrassing when you're Not-Nostradamus.
Here's a question for the folks:
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 06:55 PM (bqDVF)
Posted by: MW at October 30, 2020 06:56 PM (gWtVa)
Posted by: Burnt Toast at October 30, 2020 06:56 PM (/Dgcm)
they have been scarce
Posted by: vmom 2020 trunalimunumaprzure! at October 30, 2020 06:56 PM (nUhF0)
Posted by: MRS COMPTON at October 30, 2020 06:56 PM (5p7BC)
THIS is why I answer all polls. The power! Think what you could do with it.
I lie like hell.
Posted by: Carl at October 30, 2020 06:57 PM (QdJI0)
Posted by: MRS COMPTON at October 30, 2020 06:56 PM (5p7BC
Does his wife know?
Posted by: AlaBAMA at October 30, 2020 06:57 PM (3aLWR)
Posted by: Tuna at October 30, 2020 06:58 PM (gLRfa)
Posted by: Methos at October 30, 2020 06:58 PM (kOpft)
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 06:58 PM (oR71r)
Posted by: tubal at October 30, 2020 06:58 PM (bCLt0)
So when they see say 15% support for Trump by blacks, they conclude why no, this cannot be true, for the older turnouts tell me so. And then re-weigh that support back to 8% to get a an "accurate" sample.
That's my guess anyway.
Also the +50 D sampling probably doesn't help either.
Posted by: Two Weeks From Asking Kim Klacik to Be the Hot Fudge on My Vanilla Sundae at October 30, 2020 06:58 PM (8YFRI)
I thought that CA would eventually revert back to a GOP state.
Posted by: Attila the unreasonable at October 30, 2020 06:58 PM (w7KSn)
Posted by: Miklos was lied to at October 30, 2020 06:58 PM (QzkSJ)
are you trolling for poll trolls, MisHum?
they have been scarce
Posted by: vmom 2020 trunalimunumaprzure!
I thought there would have been a lot more trolls this time.
Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at October 30, 2020 06:58 PM (63Dwl)
Aww, poor kittehs!!!
Posted by: JQ at October 30, 2020 06:59 PM (whOIk)
willowed: Meatloaf's done. It's tender and delicious but a little dry.
Two outta three ain't bad.
Posted by: creeper at October 30, 2020 06:59 PM (XxJt1)
Just sit back, enjoy your soy lattes and don't even bother to vote, Biden's got this. The polls are right.
Posted by: Two Weeks From Asking Kim Klacik to Be the Hot Fudge on My Vanilla Sundae at October 30, 2020 06:59 PM (8YFRI)
Posted by: bill in arkansas at October 30, 2020 06:59 PM (I58tH)
Posted by: Tuna at October 30, 2020 06:59 PM (gLRfa)
Posted by: eleven at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (XTyi0)
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (5p7BC)
Posted by: Heart of Darkness at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (4NtsG)
30 The haruspex were right all along. The chicken knows.
Posted by: bill in arkansas at October 30, 2020 06:59 PM (I58tH)
Lol!! Well done!!
Posted by: tubal at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (bCLt0)
Posted by: Two Weeks From Asking Kim Klacik to Be the Hot Fudge on My Vanilla Sundae at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (8YFRI)
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (arJlL)
I thought that CA would eventually revert back to a GOP state.
Posted by: Attila the unreasonable
As bad as CA is, I really believe the elections are rigged, not reflecting the true sentiment of CA voters.
Posted by: Soothsayer's Untrue But Accurate Tales at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (ScPIO)
After, Obama and Biden will deliver remarks at a drive-in event in Detroit to encourage Michiganders to vote.
Posted by: Well, it helps the auto industry at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (BBWrU)
Posted by: eleven at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (XTyi0)
Posted by: RKae
Every time it involved certain possibilities with a female.
Posted by: Miklos, 100% anti-accurate at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (QzkSJ)
I would add that as inferences are made about groups the variability becomes greater and then those variabilities are stacked.
Bad stats.
Posted by: MJ at October 30, 2020 07:00 PM (gAMkn)
Posted by: Innagaddadavida at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (jvQ5d)
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (oR71r)
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 06:55 PM (bqDVF)
Ugh, I don't like to think about it, but I made two wrong predictions in one. In 2012.
"Romney will win the election, because he's such a decent man."
Posted by: Splunge at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (dOV9E)
Posted by: 40 Miles North at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (uWF4x)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (ZLI7S)
Posted by: jsg at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (FIcu2)
----
MisHum, we all have done things we are ashamed of.
Myself, it is reading the OverNight Threads of smart military blogs. If I could only figure out how to stop........
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (sy5kK)
**********
New poll has Biden up 15 points in Texas, and zeroing in on making West Virginia a tossup state.
my snot also tastes like cheerios.
Posted by: Two Weeks From Trolling The Poll Troll at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (8YFRI)
Posted by: x at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (0tE/i)
Posted by: RoyalOil at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (aO8Gd)
Biden just called General Stanley McChrystal, Stanley McGeneral.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (ZLI7S)
Close.
Ish
Posted by: AlaBAMA at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (3aLWR)
Posted by: garrett at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (oI9Ly)
we could be wrong about so much...then again, the fact that Biden is actively...ish...campaigning in Minnesota means something is up.
Posted by: official redcheckmark at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (zzdt2)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
Posted by: RKae
When I first was asked about the Wuflu in mid-March, I said it would all blow over in three weeks.
Posted by: Tonypete at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (bJxw1)
After, Obama and Biden will deliver remarks at a drive-in event in Detroit to encourage Michiganders to vote."
Hopefully some Trump people will figure out where they are and take appropriate action.
Posted by: Tuna at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (gLRfa)
Posted by: Russians! at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (buTO7)
Ha!
Biden just called General Stanley McChrystal, Stanley McGeneral.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (ZLI7S)
With a side of fries.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (KnJdm)
Ugh, I don't like to think about it, but I made two wrong predictions in one. In 2012.
"Romney will win the election, because he's such a decent man."
Posted by: Splunge at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (dOV9E)
Mine was obverse - Romney will win because Obama is such a ponce.
Posted by: tubal at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (bCLt0)
Well did you know this fact or did you know that fact, will this change your opinion of this or that, etc.
Screw that shit.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (tW1lH)
willowed: Meatloaf's done. It's tender and delicious but a little dry.
Two outta three ain't bad.
Posted by: creeper
Oh! No! Meatloaf again ?!??!?!!
Posted by: Brad and Janet at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (LPnfS)
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (MVjcR)
Posted by: Heart of Darkness at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (4NtsG)
Posted by: creeper at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (XxJt1)
Or collectively jump off bridges and tall buildings. Just as long as they're out of the political landscape.
Posted by: Curly Shuffle at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (ch6++)
I think pollster suffer from Economists' Disease: They confuse descriptive with predictive.
Posted by: McLurkerson at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (n2Ecm)
Posted by: RoyalOil at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (aO8Gd)
Myself, it is reading the OverNight Threads of smart military blogs. If I could only figure out how to stop........
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (sy5kK)
Is one of them misreading who actually wrote the post?
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (XrCyE)
Posted by: Gonah Joldberg at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (DIccS)
Ha!
Biden just called General Stanley McChrystal, Stanley McGeneral.
Posted by: JackStraw
Hahahaha.
Posted by: Soothsayer's Untrue But Accurate Tales at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (ScPIO)
Posted by: Russians!
Russians can vote in Ohio ?
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (arJlL)
And Admirable McBoatyface.
Posted by: garrett at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (oI9Ly)
lol
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (9Om/r)
There must be some way and the traditional methods aren't working.
Posted by: Shenanigans at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (mHB4C)
Pay attention class because he just gave you a lesson in surveys and polling.
Everything the man just said above is backed by polling research, past results, and my professional training and experience in the field.
Personally, I am not a pollster but I do know several of them that conduct state level polling and surveys. They are saying the same thing in private-one of them that ran a state poll and managed the call service farms for a nationally known polling outfit told me in 2004 that with cell phones, traditional rdd polling was dying and would be dead in about a decade.
Although Dave, you did miss that the move to cell phones has made it very difficult to use area code as a predictor for sampling by geography.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (pO7gM)
Posted by: Blago at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (gkdnV)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (yQpMk)
Posted by: Farmer Bob at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (7o4Oo)
Posted by: tubal at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (bCLt0)
Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at 06:52 PM
So pollsters and politicians have the same financial incentives.
I think I'm beginning to see the problem.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (sy5kK)
Posted by: Catch Thirty-Thr33 at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (3DJkT)
Posted by: Jen the original at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (19hRb)
Greta Thunberg cancels in-person protests after a rise of Covid-19 infections in Sweden
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Tyrannosaur Wrangler at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (+y/Ru)
Posted by: JackStraw
---> time to call a lid, joe
Posted by: official redcheckmark at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (zzdt2)
I feel cheated.
Posted by: deplorable unperson - refuse to accept the Mask of the Beast at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (3P/5p)
***********
I like to think Romney was on the path to winning until Crispy Christie sucked Obama's dick on national TV.
Posted by: Two Weeks From Hoping Against Hope That Hope Hicks Will Be My Snuggles of Hope at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (8YFRI)
And NO, Tami you did this! Love Ya , Lady.
Posted by: Ben Had at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (nnI2U)
Posted by: AlaBAMA at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (3aLWR)
Let's hope this is a sign
Posted by: Hatari Somewhere on Ventura Highway at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (M+Lyo)
Posted by: JackStraw
... Better to burn out, than to fade away ...
Posted by: My my, hey hey ... at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (LPnfS)
of a Romney victory in 2012. I literally hid for 6 months after that,
out of shame.
----
MisHum, we all have done things we are ashamed of.
Myself, it is reading the OverNight Threads of smart military blogs. If I could only figure out how to stop........
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (sy5kK)
When I saw romney take that dive during the second debate I knew he would lose.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (9Om/r)
The funny part is that McChrystal IS a "McGeneral."
He's a typical, dime-a-dozen, store-bought general piece of cucka.
Posted by: Soothsayer's Untrue But Accurate Tales at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (ScPIO)
Posted by: Lieutenant McBearclaw at October 30, 2020 07:05 PM (FIcu2)
Posted by: Tuna at October 30, 2020 07:06 PM (gLRfa)
There's just the Trump vote and the polls simple aren't finding them. They're not shy, they're not lying, they're just not answering the phone.
So, you use your eyes. You look around. You see thousands at rallies. You see signs everywhere. You see spontaneously-arranged parades.
THAT'S your poll, and it tells me Trump is winning bigly.
Posted by: Shenanigans at October 30, 2020 07:06 PM (mHB4C)
Posted by: Catch Thirty-Thr33 at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (3DJkT)
---
It was sacked.
Posted by: Axeman at October 30, 2020 07:06 PM (FYe3W)
Posted by: eleven at October 30, 2020 07:06 PM (XTyi0)
Posted by: mallfly the Peach of Hoboken at October 30, 2020 07:07 PM (4a9Vv)
So pollsters and politicians have the same financial incentives.
I think I'm beginning to see the problem.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (sy5kK)
"Follow the Money" always applies. If you can.
Posted by: tubal at October 30, 2020 07:07 PM (bCLt0)
Posted by: Buck Throckmorton at October 30, 2020 07:07 PM (d9Cw3)
Posted by: Miklos, who might dance a little too at October 30, 2020 07:07 PM (QzkSJ)
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (pO7gM)
And it makes it difficult for campaigns.
My area code and current address are far from matching, so as a result, I get a lot of text-spam from campaigns in another part of TX and only one or two from the local area. (My favorite texts are the ones where they clearly do not even know my name. Recently, I was texted by some Statist organization that not only couldn't get my name right, but texted me in English AND Spanish. Not only do you jokers not know my name but you don't know what language I speak?)
Posted by: Catch Thirty-Thr33 at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (3DJkT)
________________________
A BIG no-no in polling. That's bush-league.
The more savvy ones manipulate it like Dave said, with sampling shenanigans.
Posted by: McLurkerson at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (n2Ecm)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (9Om/r)
Posted by: Ben Had at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (nnI2U)
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (arJlL)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (ZLI7S)
Posted by: Case at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (CBO5D)
Yes. I figured he must have been paid to take that dive. Also, I figure his hostility toward Trump is part of his self loathing for taking that dive.
Posted by: Tuna at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (gLRfa)
Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (sWM8x)
Posted by: AlaBAMA at October 30, 2020 07:09 PM (3aLWR)
Posted by: William White at October 30, 2020 07:09 PM (5FRbo)
this is a thing in dictatorships too.
censoring free speech is not a win win for anybody.
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:09 PM (4Jold)
Posted by: mallfly the Peach of Hoboken at October 30, 2020 07:09 PM (4a9Vv)
Pedo Joe is on a roll today, isn't he?
There is no way he's going to make it through the weekend without a major crack up or meltdown.
Anyone want to take any bets on a date and time?
Posted by: Marybeth at October 30, 2020 07:09 PM (4pK1/)
"Romney will win the election, because he's such a decent man."
Posted by: Splunge at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (dOV9E)
Mine was obverse - Romney will win because Obama is such a ponce.
Posted by: tubal at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (bCLt0)
My blanket was the knowledge that no president had ever won reelection with unemployment north of seven percent.
A trend is a trend until it isn't.*
*though I remain unconvinced that Romney didn't win the election if you only counted legitimate votes.
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:09 PM (yQpMk)
Greta Thunberg cancels in-person protests after a rise of Covid-19 infections in Sweden
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Tyrannosaur Wrangle
Oh noes! Where am I to get lectured by a self important, whored out by daddy, autistic, scold? Heh, just realized she's a young female biden!
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:09 PM (oR71r)
Posted by: Buck Throckmorton
Hiya Bawk !
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:09 PM (arJlL)
Posted by: creeper
----------
I think there are three types:
1) Honest but getting misleading results (some are getting good results)
2) Lazy, they get a minimum sample and call it done
3) Corrupt, they are producing results they want
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (5p7BC)
Confidence is high.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (HaL55)
Posted by: MJ at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (gAMkn)
I figured out that the polls were influencers rather than telling the truth, long ago.
I appreciate you showing me the why and how they have blown-up their business.
Posted by: AZ deplorably isolated at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (gtatv)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (4Jold)
******************
They tried to conduct a study on this concluding at least 7% of Trumpers polled were flat out lying their asses off about who they were voting for because fuck the polls.
That would mean if the weighting sample is accurately capturing that 7%, a Biden 12 point lead actually translates into a 2 point lead for Trump.
Posted by: Two Weeks From Hoping Against Hope That Hope Hicks Will Be My Snuggles of Hope at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (8YFRI)
Posted by: Tucker 6.1 mil, Hannity 5.3, Maddow 3.7 at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (BBWrU)
Posted by: Skip at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (OjZpE)
As far as the polls go, all I can say is this:
Fake News lies about, literally, everything. Why would they tell the truth about polling?
Posted by: Soothsayer's Untrue But Accurate Tales at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (ScPIO)
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Tyrannosaur Wrangler at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (+y/Ru)
Posted by: Marybeth at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (4pK1/)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (85Gof)
CNN and MSNBC both have lead stories on the surging death plague, ESPECIALLY IN BATTLEGROUND STATES.
I'm guessing they're trying to depress Trump voter turnout believing Biden has enough early votes.
Good luck with that...
Posted by: Stateless Infidel at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (v2c9/)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (ZLI7S)
Remember when the left ridiculed George W as being the stupidest man alive for his gaffes? Good times.
Posted by: Pine Barrens at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (oh+79)
The funny part is that McChrystal IS a "McGeneral."
He's a typical, dime-a-dozen, store-bought general piece of cucka.
Posted by: Soothsayer's Untrue But Accurate Tales
And you'll find these creatures roaming in the caverns of The Pentagon. They are created there.
Posted by: Puddleglum at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (68Eft)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:09 PM (yQpMk)
probably some truth to that.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (9Om/r)
Friends, Romans, country fried steak . . .
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Tyrannosaur Wrangler
. . . . lend me your queers.
Posted by: Tonypete at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (bJxw1)
Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (sWM8x)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (yQpMk)
Posted by: whig
-----------
Thanks I forgot about that. I wrote all that off the cuff last night.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (5p7BC)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (4Jold)
====
Yes. What we don't know is how many times.
Posted by: jc at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (PuMKG)
Posted by: deplorable unperson - refuse to accept the Mask of the Beast at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (3P/5p)
Posted by: Two Weeks From Hoping Against Hope That Hope Hicks Will Be My Snuggles of Hope at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (8YFRI)
Doesn't that assume that everyone who lies to pollsters didn't lie to that pollster?
Posted by: Splunge at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (dOV9E)
Posted by: Ben Had
I took an Amberson shit this morning, think anybody would wanna buy it ?
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (arJlL)
Posted by: All Hail Eris, Xenomorph Queen at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (Dc2NZ)
Posted by: the Butcher at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (QEsfM)
Posted by: Winston Wolf at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (n2Ecm)
Serious snark now: Conservatives are busy, Work too much, miss the family and honey bunns.
Posted by: humphreyrobot at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (pB6Gt)
Posted by: Blago at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (gkdnV)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (4Jold)
Posted by: Ed Teach, Maritime Reclamation Specialist at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (LKTKP)
When I got out of the stock market on Mar 9th (I think), 2009. This was the very day Quantitative Easing started. I had no idea what was happening and refused to believe the market could go up.
Posted by: t-bird at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (8eSmR)
***************
yeah that shit ain't all it's cracked up to be.
Posted by: Thomas E. Dewey at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (8YFRI)
*though I remain unconvinced that Romney didn't win the election if you only counted legitimate votes.
Posted by: Grump928(C)
I too believe 2012 was stolen.
It made no sense that obama "won" with a horrible economic record -- worse than Carter's.
Posted by: Soothsayer's Untrue But Accurate Tales at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (ScPIO)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (yQpMk)
I would not prefer that, in Trump's case.
Wrong polls meant Ginsburg clung to her seat so we got Barrett.
Wrong polls meant so many wonderful tears and freakouts on election night.
Posted by: Splunge at October 30, 2020 07:13 PM (dOV9E)
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (arJlL)
"...I really believe the elections are rigged, not reflecting the true sentiment of CA voters."
It all started w Motor Voter in 1996.
Once that was established, then of course, drivers licenses to illegals followed.
We are a one party state.
Posted by: Attila the unreasonable at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (w7KSn)
Posted by: Stellastwocents at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (cRbt7)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 06:55 PM
I thought Mitt Romney was an honorable man.
Posted by: Moonbeam at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (qe5CM)
Posted by: Puddleglum at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (68Eft)
---
Correction: RSBN's feed is clear. Most of the others are screwed up.
Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (sWM8x)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (9Om/r)
I think I'm beginning to see the problem.
I'll whomp on Bessie The Dead Horse again and quote the late Dr. Krauthammer who said, "Let me ask the question and I'll give you any answer you want." This is the driving factor behind the majority of polling, IMO.
"Have you stopped beating your wife yet?"
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (HaL55)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 06:55 PM (bqDVF)
Online brokerage / trading...
Where we once rivaled Schwab...now we gone!
FML...
Posted by: browndog at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (BgMrQ)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (yQpMk)
Posted by: Little Richard at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (l6b3d)
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (arJlL)
Posted by: Blago at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (gkdnV)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (9Om/r)
-----
Keep your head down, bro!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (MVjcR)
Name me one thing those two pillars of evil do that benefit society and I will eat my undershorts.
Posted by: Hairyback Guy at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (R/m4+)
And NO, Tami you did this! Love Ya , Lady.
Posted by: Ben Had
------------
Thanks to both of you, there are some points up there I've really wanted to make. I'm very happy to get a larger platform
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (5p7BC)
Hope you are doing OK after the surgery. A suggestion: as you start physical therapy, be sure to keep up strength and flexibility in the opposite leg. I didn't do that after a fractured ankle some years ago and I'm still trying to equalize them. Also, I found a walker a LOT easier to use than crutches.
Just some thoughts.
Posted by: JTB at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (7EjX1)
*******************
When I was SURE SCOTUS would overturn Obamacare in 2012 and invested in health stocks accordingly hoping for a huge payoff.
That's why if I ever run into Roberts I would go medieval on that bitchboy's faggot traitorous vermin ass.
Posted by: Two Weeks From Investing in the Penus Pumper Stocks on Ameritrade at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (8YFRI)
I don't think the rank and file Dems would be nervous if they really thought Biden was running away with it.
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (HabA/)
Wrong polls meant Ginsburg clung to her seat so we got Barrett.
Wrong polls meant so many wonderful tears and freakouts on election night.
Posted by: Splunge"
Ha...good point.
Posted by: eleven at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (XTyi0)
Moreover, how can 2012 go so badly for us when 2010 was tremendously and historically good? It makes no sense.
There was clearly a rejection of obama's policies, especially obamacare and the fake "stimulus."
Posted by: Soothsayer's Untrue But Accurate Tales at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (ScPIO)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (85Gof)
I would trade a meh holiday for an every 2 years Election Day holiday.
One day. And that's it. Vote or Don't Vote.
Posted by: Lieutenant McBearclaw at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (FIcu2)
The simple reason never occurs to them. People show up at Trump rallies because people like, respect and admire him.
Posted by: Tuna at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (gLRfa)
An unknown person in Columbia, S.C., submitted at least 54 new voter applications in July in the same neat handwriting to the Broward elections office, several in each of 19 envelopes. Many of the voters were elderly, and had recently died in the Northeast.
Almost all of them were flagged by Broward elections office staff as suspicious, and turned over to the Broward State Attorney's Office. Prosecutors have been watching since August, in a sting operation to catch the culprit, internal correspondence shows.
Posted by: mallfly the Peach of Hoboken at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (4a9Vv)
Posted by: Ben Had at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (nnI2U)
He said he thinks, as things stand right now, "Biden will win but Trump can still pull out an upset."
I almost drove off the road!
I'm thinking to myself, 'then what you've been posting about Trump's approval and black voters for Trump has been what, crap? It just made no sense to me at all.
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (cF8AT)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (9Om/r)
-----
Keep your head down, bro!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (MVjcR)
Well, it is jersey remember. The most they got out there is pop guns. lol
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (9Om/r)
Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (d1uFV)
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (oR71r)
I wasn't counting on him actively throwing the election.
Posted by: Rodrigo Borgia at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (s+GTV)
Hope you are doing OK after the surgery. A suggestion: as you start physical therapy, be sure to keep up strength and flexibility in the opposite leg. I didn't do that after a fractured ankle some years ago and I'm still trying to equalize them. Also, I found a walker a LOT easier to use than crutches.
Just some thoughts.
Posted by: JTB
Weasel had surgery ?
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (arJlL)
It made no sense that obama "won" with a horrible economic record -- worse than Carter's.
Thirded. Teh SCOAMF's statement to Medvedev "After I win my reelection, I'll have more flexibility" still rings in my ears. His poll numbers at that time were headed downhill.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (HaL55)
***************
They cannot merely be discredited. They must be fucking destroyed. Nuke it from orbit.
Posted by: Two Weeks From Investing in the Penus Pumper Stocks on Ameritrade at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (8YFRI)
Hope you are doing OK after the surgery. A suggestion: as you start physical therapy, be sure to keep up strength and flexibility in the opposite leg. I didn't do that after a fractured ankle some years ago and I'm still trying to equalize them. Also, I found a walker a LOT easier to use than crutches.
Just some thoughts.
Posted by: JTB at October 30, 2020 07:15 PM (7EjX1)
-----
Thanks JTB. Great tip. I'm remembering how much un-fun crutches are. Went down on the deck in the wet lease earlier. Weasel down! Weasel down!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (MVjcR)
Modeling is gaslighting.
Projections are gaslighting.
Sampling is gaslighting.
Posted by: Martini Farmer at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (3H9h1)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
---
I thought Barrako never had a chance. No way would people be stupid enough to elect that commie queer.
Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (sWM8x)
I was kind of wondering where the poll trolls have been too.
Posted by: Tuna at October 30, 2020 06:59 PM (gLRfa)
Soros knows he is losing, so he pulled the troll funding and is shifting it into the corrupt anti-law local District Attorney funding.
Lots of success there so far.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (sy5kK)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
"Savings and Loans are a great place to put your money!"
Posted by: deplorable unperson - refuse to accept the Mask of the Beast at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (3P/5p)
Just like the Millikan oil drop experiment - his reported number was wrong (by much more than the error bars), but only over time did the next experiments converge to it - they didn't want to "correct" him too much.
Posted by: Fletcher gets short shrift at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (BBWrU)
*******
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
·
43m
Maricopa county EV update. Since I last looked yesterday, R ballots have a 1.7:1 advantage over D ballots coming in.
4 Days Out (Party = registration)
Total: 1,534,898
R: 577,185
D: 554,026
O: 403,687
Tomorrow the county will likely pass all 2016 ballots. (1,608,875)
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (NjyXk)
Posted by: Natasha at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (hbrUW)
Trump's throwing a few more sharper elbows today, which is nice.
Directly stating that Biden as president would enrich his family and "sell out" to foreign adversaries.
Posted by: rhomboid at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (OTzUX)
That's the Rio Grande Valley. Why the hell would any Dem pay a visit to a county that is as heavily Demcratic as Hidalgo County?
Posted by: Catch Thirty-Thr33 at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (3DJkT)
Lord, I hope you are right.
However, if you have a repeat of 2012, I will leave you with this:
I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you are looking for ransom, I can tell you I don't have money. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you!
I'm just kidding. Ask my wife. I have no skills at all.
Posted by: Swingin' for the downs at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (uy0w8)
Mike
Posted by: MBunge at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (7Nkan)
Mine was obverse - Romney will win because Obama is such a ponce.
Posted by: tubal at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (bCLt0)
The Dems are making the same mistake we did in 2012: assuming everyone out there hates the incumbent as much as they do and thinking that in and of itself will be enough.
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (HabA/)
Posted by: Ben Had
No, no, no. YOU did! YOU!
{{{hugs}}}
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (cF8AT)
As of today, Biden is at 66 cents, down 2 cents, while Trump is at 40 cents, unchanged.
Imho, Trump is a great buy at 2.5:1 odds.
Posted by: GnuBreed at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (F0YaR)
Weasel had surgery ?
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (arJlL)
----
Nothing serious. Cleaned out my ankle and took care of a bone spur.
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (MVjcR)
Posted by: Natasha at Octobe
isn't the dd the site for some hq traitor?
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (4Jold)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (4Jold)
>>> 139 123 do we know if rbg voted
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (4Jold)
====
Yes. What we don't know is how many times.
Posted by: jc at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (PuMKG)
Once for every year of hear age? or for how many push-ups she could do? That's like 200 you know.
Posted by: Helena Handbasket at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (/kh7m)
Posted by: jsg at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (FIcu2)
Minneapolis was preemptively boarding up downtown today too.
Including restaurants that have closed permanently.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (+WWsf)
"Yeah, it's a lot for a beanie baby but I'll be able to sell it for three times that next year."
Posted by: Bob the Bilderberg at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (qc+VF)
I now wonder if there was not some discomfort with a Mormon as President from some conservative voters that depressed GOP turnout.
Posted by: motionview (prep train organize) at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (pYQR/)
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (arJlL)
----
Nothing serious. Cleaned out my ankle and took care of a bone spur.
Posted by: Weasel
Get well soon !
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (arJlL)
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 07:18 PM (HabA/)
The Dems did that in 2004 as well. Kerry was going to win going away because everyone hated Bush XLIII.
Posted by: Catch Thirty-Thr33 at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (3DJkT)
********
Joe Biden Gets Angry, Calls Minnesota Trump Supporters "Ugly" For Honking Horns and Drowning Out His Speech (VIDEO)
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (NjyXk)
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (MVjcR)
Posted by: humphreyrobot at October 30, 2020 07:20 PM (pB6Gt)
Posted by: DB- just DB. at October 30, 2020 07:20 PM (iTXRQ)
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:20 PM (MVjcR)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division
-----------
LOL, I guess I need to plan to make it to one now.
Don't worry, I'll be able to afford it, but the Idi Amin kit would be righteous.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 07:20 PM (5p7BC)
Posted by: Expect riots in any case at October 30, 2020 07:20 PM (BBWrU)
Is one of them misreading who actually wrote the post?
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at October 30, 2020 07:03 PM (XrCyE)
It's not who writes the content, it's who publishes the post.
Posted by: zombie Josef Stalin at October 30, 2020 07:20 PM (sy5kK)
********
Joe Biden Gets Angry, Calls Minnesota Trump Supporters "Ugly" For Honking Horns and Drowning Out His Speech (VIDEO)
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (NjyXk)
Hey Joe! You could call CHYna and ask them to chase the meanies off for you.
Posted by: Helena Handbasket at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (/kh7m)
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (MVjcR)
Jeez, Weasel! Take care of yourself.
Posted by: Jordan61-2020 TX MoMe Bacon Wench at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (KuT6N)
Slight edit; no fee.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (+WWsf)
NYPost released from "twitmo" today - basically Twitter backed down.
Let's see if what passes for a "press" in the US can hold out completely on one of the biggest stories in American history (with not only obviously legit evidence, but now expert-authenticated email evidence).
Posted by: rhomboid at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (OTzUX)
Tough shit, Loser.
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (yQpMk)
Posted by: Skip at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (OjZpE)
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (XJipD)
Posted by: Burnt Toast at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (/Dgcm)
Posted by: notsothoreau at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (JKNZq)
un-fun crutches are. Went down on the deck in the wet lease earlier.
Weasel down! Weasel down!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (MVjcR)
I would say its a good time to park your ass and apply the berserker guitar method we talked about.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (9Om/r)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (85Gof)
Posted by: JT at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (arJlL)
Posted by: Locke Common at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (Nk+xv)
@RNCResearch
Joe Biden refers to Minnesota Trump supporters as "ugly folks"
https://tinyurl.com/y5ku8q78
I think it's more like 'ugly felps'...
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (cF8AT)
Almost all of them were flagged by Broward elections office staff as suspicious, and turned over to the Broward State Attorney's Office. Prosecutors have been watching since August, in a sting operation to catch the culprit, internal correspondence shows.
Posted by: mallfly the Peach of Hoboken at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (4a9Vv)
Voter fraud in Florida?
The horror, the horror.
Posted by: Hairyback Guy at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (R/m4+)
I remember dismissing a blue wave in 2018 because I once again thought the polling was suspect, and Democrats did do really well. That's what keeps me up at night.
The early numbers though do look really good for Republicans, not sure if that just because of Covid or what. I don't see Election Day Biden doing well with in person voters. I'm just not seeing that Obama coalition of minorities and young people.
The only thing I have to make me think Biden wins is the polling, but it's beyond the point of "lying pollsters" to something just being deeply broken.
Posted by: Blago at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (gkdnV)
Posted by: humphreyrobot"
Would you believe "Mike Pence: Electric Boogaloo"?
Posted by: eleven at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (XTyi0)
Hey Joe! You could call CHYna and ask them to chase the meanies off for you.
Posted by: Helena Handbasket at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (/kh7m)
-----------
Let me see, Trump supporters honking horns is somehow worse than Biden supporters shooting Trump supporters?
Alrighty, then.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (WEBkv)
I now wonder if there was not some discomfort with a Mormon as President from some conservative voters that depressed GOP turnout.
Posted by: motionview (prep train organize) at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM (pYQR/)
---------
Trump got about the same as Romney.
I'm hoping Trump has developed a straight working middle class constituency.
Posted by: MAGA (I got rabies for Trump) at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (AB7ku)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (85Gof)
Posted by: Jordan61-2020 TX MoMe Bacon Wench at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (KuT6N)
------
Thanks Jordan61! And if I didn't say so already, you are a great Bacon Wench!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (MVjcR)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division
-----------
LOL, I guess I need to plan to make it to one now.
Don't worry, I'll be able to afford it, but the Idi Amin kit would be righteous.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 07:20 PM (5p7BC)
Hmm, sounds like some plotting is required....
>>> 223 On a lighter note, I am loving these Doug Jones TV commercials where he is literally begging Alabamians to ignore his voting record, with a genuine sheen of flop sweat on this forehead.
Tough shit, Loser.
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (yQpMk)
Thanks for sharing, this makes me very happy!
Posted by: Helena Handbasket at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (/kh7m)
Posted by: rhomboid at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (OTzUX)
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (WEBkv)
How to fix polling --
1. Make it physical. a kiosk outside a shop - press a button and a coupon pops out for $1 discount at shop. Do it anonymous and public at different locations and compare results. Do it all over country, at different locations. Eventually you will figure out how it correlates to actual results.
Physical means it is people in a community. 1$ means they have incentive and you will even get shy voters. Coupon means it will be real since you can toss out any voters who do not buy anything (don't tell them that) and that will negate flash mob attempts to game the poll. You can also correlate the voter with the demographic based on location, *and what they buy*, as well as time of day, etc. hell, even do video recognition to determine age and race, but you can probably estimate that from the location.
BTW - this is a patentable idea with many claims already listed. I give it away to the HQ horde because I am a giver. (and too lazy to pursue.) It is now in public domain.
Posted by: Gentlemen, this is democracy manifest at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (LWu6U)
--
No word on what he thinks of Biden supporters swinging bike locks at Trump supporters, or lighting their hair on fire, spitting on them, punching them in the face, stealing hats off their children...
Posted by: Lady in Black at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (RFKJ8)
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (cF8AT)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
Marrying the Daughter of Stan and thinking she'd agree with me in familial matters.
Silly me. I found out later the first thing she did after we got married was go fuck her previous boyfriend. I can be a real imbecile sometimes...
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (HaL55)
Posted by: humphreyrobot at October 30, 2020 07:20 PM (pB6Gt)
Pence has been improving his game under the Master. And Grenell has serious chops. Pence-Grenell 2024!
Posted by: Splunge at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (dOV9E)
Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at 06:52 PM
So pollsters and politicians have the same financial incentives.
I think I'm beginning to see the problem.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:04 PM (sy5kK)
Plus this effect -
Say you own a polling company. You have been hired to conduct political polling, both nationwide and in a number of individual states, by CNN, WaPo, Politico, and the NBC TV stations in the largest city of each of the states you will poll.
Might you be tempted to conduct your polling in a manner that gives your customers what they want to hear?
Posted by: Gref at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (AMIL/)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (9Om/r)
-------
THAT is EXACTLY what I was thinking.
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (MVjcR)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (4Jold)
and will they pull her vote from the stack because she officially died before election day?
Posted by: Burnt Toast at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (/Dgcm)
There is no way he's going to make it through the weekend without a major crack up or meltdown.
------
You're a lying dog-faced pony soldier.
Posted by: Bartlett's at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (GBHAb)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (85Gof)
Posted by: motionview (prep train organize) at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (pYQR/)
I have problems with polls
but I got a bigger problem with cable hosts repeatedly referring to them
see how long day time Fox can go without citing a poll
Posted by: REDACTED at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (R3uW8)
I am comforted.
Somewhat.
Thank you.
Posted by: Ladyl at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (TdMsT)
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (XJipD)
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (NjyXk)
Posted by: motionview (prep train organize) at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (pYQR/)
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (WEBkv)
Posted by: Infidel at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (32aJ9)
Those numbers make no sense given Trump's intense popularity with his own supporters. It makes me wonder if these polls are assuming a huge jump in voter turnout. It was historically high for a mid-term in 2018 but to have the equivalent in 2020 we'd have to have nearly 70% turnout.
Mike
Posted by: MBunge at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (7Nkan)
Posted by: James at October 30, 2020 07:25 PM (nOJDr)
Posted by: Skip at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (OjZpE)
---------
Yep, makes sense.
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:25 PM (MVjcR)
Silly me. I found out later the first thing she did after we got married was go fuck her previous boyfriend. I can be a real imbecile sometimes...
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at Octobe
how was it otherwise?
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:25 PM (4Jold)
Lots of success there so far.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (sy5kK)
I think that this CAN (not guaranteed by any means) backfire. If the link can be made between a soft-on-crime DA and rising crime rates, DAs can be replaced with more law-and-order types. Sadly, even if it did ultimately backfire, it will take time. And it may even needlessly cost lives with rising crime rates in the meantime.
Posted by: Catch Thirty-Thr33 at October 30, 2020 07:25 PM (3DJkT)
Scott Rasmussen is covering his ass. If Trump wins, he'll say "see, I said Trump could pull out an upset!"
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 07:25 PM (HabA/)
If anything, Biden as nominee makes some of the Obama coalition voters feel like they're being pimped 'cause crazy old man borderline racist Biden was amusing as a VP wingman, but not so much as the headliner.
Kamala's not "black black", as Whoopi might say. I suspect the mixed race thing plays differently between male and female candidates too.
Again, it won't make minority voters flip red, but it'll keep some of them home and not voting.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:25 PM (+WWsf)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 30, 2020 07:08 PM (ZLI7S)
Guessing a few or many MN voters will go Trump just in spite of the corrupt Muzzie.
Nobody likes a bully who abuses his position, and Ellison is the posterboy for it.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:25 PM (sy5kK)
attend the event at 250 people.
Posted by: PacosMojo at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (spiZY)
Posted by: tubal at October 30, 2020 07:02 PM (bCLt0)
I literally BEGGED for GOPe-ers to not vote for the turd sucker Mittens in the primary.
My formula was Anyone >>>>> Romney >> TFG.
But did they listen? And my hypocrisy reached new bounds. I had to vote for Newt ! in the primary.
Yeah, I voted for the turd sucker in the general.
Posted by: GnuBreed at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (F0YaR)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (yQpMk)
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (qpX6U)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (4Jold)
and will they pull her vote from the stack because she officially died before election day?
Posted by: Burnt Toast at Octobe
that is where I was going with that
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (4Jold)
and will their be a reckoning for the hosts that use them so much
Sandra Smith and Bill Hemmer come to mind
Posted by: REDACTED at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (R3uW8)
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:22 PM (MVjcR)
Thank you! It was a lot of fun.
Posted by: Jordan61-2020 TX MoMe Bacon Wench at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (KuT6N)
Posted by: Ben Had at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (nnI2U)
Greta Thunberg cancels in-person protests after a rise of Covid-19 infections in Sweden
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Tyrannosaur Wrangler
I REALLY like VP Pence, but, he strikes me as a "Sermon on the Mount." kind of Christian, where I want a "kick the shit out of the money changers" Christian. (I maybe misremembering the latter passage.}
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (oR71r)
Dems lead all ballots by 45k (including 32k ballots not yet accepted)
Take those out and it's 38k.
Trump got 50% of independent in 2016; they are 236k ballots right now.
Apply that split and ... Dems lead is 7,652.
10% of the early vote-- where R has built a near 80k ballot lead-- will come in today ....
Are they panicking in Nevada yet?
Posted by: RoyalOil at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (aO8Gd)
Posted by: Tonypete at October 30, 2020 07:26 PM (bJxw1)
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:24 PM (WEBkv)
-------
Uh oh. I figured they were more like suggestions.
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:27 PM (MVjcR)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (85Gof)
I would trade a meh holiday for an every 2 years Election Day holiday.
One day. And that's it. Vote or Don't Vote.
Posted by: Lieutenant McBearclaw at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (FIcu2)
Labor Day is OUT!
Posted by: Burnt Toast at October 30, 2020 07:27 PM (/Dgcm)
That I would remain married to the same women for several decades.
Oh wait, that's not all that funny.
I remember now. I was sure Social Security wouldn't be around by the time I retired.
I got that one way wrong.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:27 PM (WEBkv)
An unknown person in Columbia, S.C., submitted at least 54 new voter applications in July in the same neat handwriting to the Broward elections office, several in each of 19 envelopes. Many of the voters were elderly, and had recently died in the Northeast.
Almost all of them were flagged by Broward elections office staff as suspicious, and turned over to the Broward State Attorney's Office. Prosecutors have been watching since August, in a sting operation to catch the culprit, internal correspondence shows.
Posted by: mallfly the Peach of Hoboken at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (4a9Vv)
DeSantis has been serious about cracking down on voter fraud here.
Posted by: Marybeth at October 30, 2020 07:27 PM (4pK1/)
Posted by: REDACTED at October 30, 2020 07:27 PM (R3uW8)
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (qpX6U)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:21 PM (9Om/r)
-------
THAT is EXACTLY what I was thinking.
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:23 PM (MVjcR)
The guitar gods work in mysterious ways. lol
Seriously though, any....any questions just ask.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (9Om/r)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (4Jold)
by mail.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (sy5kK)
Jordan! Too busy this trip, but next time, you and hubs wanna meet up?
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (oR71r)
***************
They cannot merely be discredited. They must be fucking destroyed. Nuke it from orbit.
Posted by: Two Weeks From Investing in the Penus Pumper Stocks on Ameritrade at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (8YFRI)
====
That will require an avalanche of mockery.
We need to stop even accepting their base assumptions, and we need to ridicule them unmercifully and incessently.
Posted by: jc at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (PuMKG)
You can also use a timer to reduce flash mobs. Make it active only once per 5 min. period.
The kiosk would be a small box (size and shape of newspaper box) with two buttons on top. chain it to a pole outside shop so people pass it on the way in.
Set up a startup with $20m capitalization to develop hardware (easy) and get a few deals with national retailers for placement. Easy peasy.
Posted by: Gentlemen, this is democracy manifest at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (LWu6U)
Seriously though, any....any questions just ask.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (9Om/r)
----
Will do. Appreciate it!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (MVjcR)
Every word out of their Cock Sucking Mouths is incompetent that Cow Farts make more sense.......... Sorry AOC about the Cow Fart Comment.
Posted by: James at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (nOJDr)
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (cF8AT)
Posted by: JM in Florida at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (HCeRP)
Seconded, Weasel. Don't do anything you can get WD to do, like fetch alcohol. WD can fetch that, can't he (or she as the case may be)?
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (HaL55)
******************
Only 5% of demoshits want things to go back to normal. They love their lockdowns and their masks. I can't see them storming the gates on election day when these soishits are too busy hiding under their beds.
Posted by: Two Weeks From Investing in the Penus Pumper Stocks on Ameritrade at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (8YFRI)
Posted by: Ed gibbon at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (6K0Lm)
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (oR71r)
As long as they get paid for clicks, they don't care what shit they shovel.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (qpX6U)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (9Om/r)
Just folks getting ready for Tuesday night, in classic NJ form.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (sy5kK)
Posted by: notsothoreau
______________
I think this phenomenon disturbs me more than anything else.
If our side is lying that much out of fear, we really are a bunch of cowards to be scared about an $8 an hour phone bank operator thinks about us.
I don't see a real revolution if that's what our side is made of.
I get "not answering", I don't get being untruthful. It also works against us deeply, try fundraising when your candidate is down double digits.
Posted by: Blago at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (gkdnV)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division
Seconded.
His Excellency, Poll De-bunker for Life, Field Marshal Dave, VC, DSO, MC, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the Democrats in General and Florida in Particular.
Posted by: Hairyback Guy at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (R/m4+)
Posted by: mallfly the Peach of Hoboken at October 30, 2020 07:16 PM (4a9Vv)
Twernt me, I was shacked up in a motel
Posted by: Andrew Gillam at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (R3uW8)
I said ACB would not be seated by Nov 3rd
happy to be wrong
Posted by: DB- just DB. at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (iTXRQ)
Posted by: Splunge at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (dOV9E)
Friends, Romans, country fried steak . . .
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Tyrannosaur Wrangler
. . . . lend me your queers.
Posted by: Tonypete at October 30, 2020 07:12 PM (bJxw1)
If you don't join me then you ain't Roman.
Posted by: Buzzion at October 30, 2020 07:30 PM (TO9X0)
Posted by: Lance McCormick at October 30, 2020 07:30 PM (3hX1d)
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (oR71r)
-------------
Here, you can have some of mine! It's nummy!
Posted by: Joey Paste Biden. at October 30, 2020 07:30 PM (WEBkv)
Posted by: Duncan at October 30, 2020 07:30 PM (jPTjH)
But he said Trump delivered and the crowd, such as it was, was enthusiastic.
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:30 PM (cF8AT)
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (oR71r)
Definitely!
Posted by: Jordan61-2020 TX MoMe Bacon Wench at October 30, 2020 07:30 PM (KuT6N)
Posted by: Hairyback Guy at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (R/m4+)
---------------
Admiral of the Ocean of MoMe.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (WEBkv)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
Posted by: RKae
When I first was asked about the Wuflu in mid-March, I said it would all blow over in three weeks.
Posted by: Tonypete
---
You were right.
It did.
But just try and get the governments of the world to admit it!
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (bqDVF)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (ZLI7S)
Why is he laughing? He's really watching Airplane. I kind of want to smother him with a pillow, but not until he's done reading.
/thank you for your time. please continue with your previous discussion
Posted by: shibumi, living in Clown World at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (ZCiJZ)
Close enough that Tina Smith should be sweating, and I think Biden's speech in St. Paul today had as much to do with her race as it did his own.
I don't visit the Twin Cities suburbs often enough to eenly keenly predict which way this state will swing. It really comes down to the married mothers in those suburbs.
But, if I had to guess, I suspect there might be a weird ticket split, so either Trump and Smith, or Biden and Jason Lewis. I think there's too much anger in this state for a straight blue ticket win.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (+WWsf)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:19 PM
I do not know. I just recall it being more accurate than the CBSNBCCNN crews in one of the recent elections.
Posted by: Natasha at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (hbrUW)
--------------------------------------------------------------
29 year olds, such as myself know exactly who you're referring to.
Posted by: theATL at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (3leHG)
"Just stick a fork in there and dig it out. It isn't even turned on. Here, gimme that, I'll do it."
Posted by: Bob the Bilderberg at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (qc+VF)
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at Octobe
use the biden method, chew ten times then swallow
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (4Jold)
Posted by: Pete Seria at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (7ZQe3)
---
That explains President Batman in 1968.
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (bqDVF)
/thank you for your time. please continue with your previous discussion
Posted by: shibumi, living in Clown World at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (ZCiJZ)
--------------
BOZO conservative wasn't a hint?
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (WEBkv)
DeSantis gets a taste of election fraud -
Somebody changed his voters registration
https://tinyurl.com/yxdmnror
Posted by: Burnt Toast at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (/Dgcm)
Posted by: Moonbeam at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (qe5CM)
Not during a "lockdown at home" pandemic.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (+WWsf)
Posted by: But I forget what % had carnal relations therein at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (BBWrU)
Seconded, Weasel. Don't do anything you can get WD to do, like fetch alcohol. WD can fetch that, can't he (or she as the case may be)?
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (HaL55)
------
Ha! The dogs are all helpfully piled on top of me!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (MVjcR)
"Whatever the end count is, but on the election that occurs on Tuesday, he will be elected, on January 20th he will be inaugurated president of the United States."
So, there you have it.
Posted by: Attila the unreasonable at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (w7KSn)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 06:55 PM (bqDVF)
I thought that the GOP led Congress wasn't serious in their efforts to repeal Obamacare.
Oh wait, I was right about that.
Posted by: Buzzion at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (TO9X0)
Cars parked solid along the road for two blocks in each direction.
Double line around the front of the building waiting to cast their vote.
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (3D/fK)
Posted by: Cosmic Charlie at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (qiqGr)
Posted by: Caliban at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (QE8X6)
I think it's obvious that I have some issues as well. Maybe I was dropped too many times on my head when I was a child?
Posted by: shibumi, living in Clown World at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (ZCiJZ)
******
STOP WATCHING, LISTENING & READING FUX NEWS!! Thank You ! Come Again
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (NjyXk)
It never made it into my house.
Posted by: jbspry at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (ATe9j)
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (zr5Kq)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (yQpMk)
Posted by: Bob Dole at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (nakwk)
That's my disrespectful name for Notorious B.L.Z. Bubb from now on.
Fuck him and the satyr he rode in on. The more fun I can make of his stupid ass, the better.
If you see me post Stan instead of whatshisname, that's who I mean.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (HaL55)
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (+WWsf)
-------------
You think Jason Lewis might have a chance?
I know he's got name recognition.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (WEBkv)
Posted by: My life is insanity at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (Z/jzm)
---
The DD/HQ got it's start here at AOS. Many of the original volunteers, including me, were Morons or Lurkers. I believe a character lovingly referred to as Meathead started it.
Posted by: Pete Seria at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (7ZQe3)
It needn't be catering to clients specifically, but a desire to resist having your polls "buried" by clients 'cause they don't reflect to prevailing mainstream narrative.
Pollsters like seeing their names up in the bright lights of cable news too.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (+WWsf)
75% of PA voters know about the Hunter Biden laptop story
70% of MI voters know
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 06:37 PM (5p7BC)
Is that because the porn part was immediately released? People looked at it because of prurient interests?
Posted by: clutch at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (9UmRs)
I live in a bubble -- my own mind. I assume people see what I see.
Posted by: All Hail Eris, Xenomorph Queen at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (Dc2NZ)
Posted by: MikeyPete at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (tXWX9)
Posted by: Heart of Darkness at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (4NtsG)
"One for the Thumb" was pretty painful. And then he won another.
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (yQpMk)
Posted by: Cosmic Charlie at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (qiqGr)
--------------------------
Nevada is my pick for a flip.
Small electorate. Could shift if a certain portion of the SEIU vote isn't driven to the polls because the casinos aren't at 100% staffing.
Posted by: MJ at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (gAMkn)
Posted by: shibumi, living in Clown World at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (ZCiJZ)
-------------
I always figured your problems were more environmental than inherent.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (WEBkv)
I don't see them doing anything that requires any effort - like standing in line for any length of time.
One reason I remember standing in line with a sinking feeling in my gut to vote in '08 was because I was in the middle of a very, very long line of young people. And the mood was festive. They couldn't wait to vote for JEF.
Young people might hate Trump, but I don't see them standing in line to vote against him and for Grandpa.
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (HabA/)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (4Jold)
---
by mail.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (sy5kK)
---
Delivered by a groundhog.
Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (sWM8x)
Posted by: But I forget what % had carnal relations therein
----
And those are just the people who the aliens brought back!
Who knows how many are being used as slave labor to mine dilithium crystals on Vulcan?
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 07:35 PM (bqDVF)
Thanks.
Posted by: Stateless Infidel at October 30, 2020 07:35 PM (v2c9/)
In Chicagoland.
I thought I was the only conservative in this state.
Posted by: Roug at October 30, 2020 07:35 PM (aSdpz)
"Whatever the end count is, but on the election that occurs on Tuesday, he will be elected, on January 20th he will be inaugurated president of the United States."
So, there you have it.
Posted by: Attila the unreasonable at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (w7KSn)
Huh ??
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:35 PM (zr5Kq)
Posted by: I'm Joe Biden and I massage this approval at October 30, 2020 07:35 PM (Izzlo)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 06:55 PM (bqDVF)
I commented the other day I thought 2 Scoops would pardon Joe
Posted by: Andrew Gillam at October 30, 2020 07:36 PM (R3uW8)
Posted by: confederatefifth at October 30, 2020 07:10 PM (4Jold)
---
by mail.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (sy5kK)
---
Delivered by a groundhog.
Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis
---
Did he see his shadow?
No?
FOUR MORE YEARS OF TRUMP!
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 07:36 PM (bqDVF)
Posted by: Skip at October 30, 2020 07:36 PM (OjZpE)
----
Wellll, maybe. I lied to a Dem pollster/promoter today, because I wanted to take up as much of her time as possible. I engaged her in as much conversation as possible. Hopefully, instilling false confidence.
Perhaps a mistake, perhaps not.
Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at October 30, 2020 07:36 PM (bPH26)
Ah...the old 'Nature vs Nurture' discussion.
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 30, 2020 07:36 PM (3D/fK)
Kamala said much the same thing. Do they know of some plan or just vomiting crap to comfort their voters?
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 07:36 PM (KZzsI)
I don't even think team Shit Midas knew it. Remember they had no celebration planned for winning the election. Nobody could have predicted that except a Mormon traitor.
Posted by: Jukin the Deplorable and Totally Unserious at October 30, 2020 07:36 PM (pw+jk)
But we knew that all along.
The left had weaponized their puny tools, and this is one of them. They really started out to use their tools to make us quit voting, but it turned out all that did was make us thumb our noses at them.
Posted by: tcn in AK at October 30, 2020 07:36 PM (okGHj)
Every one that I can remember.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:37 PM (qpX6U)
That's great, Weasel. I look forward to taking a personal firearm lesson from you and Jim NSD in the future. It's been a long time since I shot anything and would need a refresher course.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at October 30, 2020 07:37 PM (HaL55)
--------------------------------------------------------------
29 year olds, such as myself know exactly who you're referring to.
Posted by: theATL at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (3leHG)
========
...people listen.
Posted by: Swingin' for the downs at October 30, 2020 07:37 PM (uy0w8)
I was just funnin you yo. I haven't seen exactly how bad the problem is and I bet that it is younger voters that are the problem as they are more mobile.
Fine informational post and excellent concise summary of the problem with polling.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 07:37 PM (pO7gM)
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:32 PM (MVjcR)
-----------
Aha! They are making sure you follow orders and keep off the ankle!
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:37 PM (WEBkv)
Posted by: shibumi, living in Clown World at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM (ZCiJZ)
-------------
I always figured your problems were more environmental than inherent.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:34 PM (WEBkv)
I figure it's from the fact that she is from that state up north.
Posted by: Buzzion at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (TO9X0)
It's because the old Maginot Line of the MFM has been broken.
Posted by: t-bird at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (B2mhs)
You could toss a coin.
Heads, Trump wins and the Left has a giant tantrum and riot.
Tails, Biden wins and the Left has a giant tantrum and riot.
Posted by: Semi-Literate Thug at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (VkfKI)
Posted by: Floridachick at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (Dmogi)
Posted by: Duncan at October 30, 2020 07:30 PM (jPTjH)
Dressing up as Hillary in prison togs was still rather popular though.
https://tinyurl.com/y4mp6744
Posted by: One of my all-time favorite pics at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (BBWrU)
That's great, Weasel. I look forward to taking a personal firearm lesson from you and Jim NSD in the future. It's been a long time since I shot anything and would need a refresher course.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy - A vote for Biden is a vote for the ChiComs at October 30, 2020 07:37 PM (HaL55)
----
That can be arranged!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (MVjcR)
Posted by: Mercenary13 at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (cgMoM)
They'll be getting Free Shit at the Five Below.
Posted by: Burnt Toast at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (/Dgcm)
Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis at October 30, 2020 07:17 PM (sWM8x)
Yeah, I shit the bed on that one as well
Posted by: Hatari Somewhere on Ventura Highway at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (M+Lyo)
And got called a fcuking piece of shit by a Biden supporter while there.
She just smiled and cast her ballot.
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (3D/fK)
That said, I'm confident Trump's got Florida. It's the other states I'm worried about.
Posted by: Ex-liberal at October 30, 2020 07:38 PM (R1mDg)
Because the plan is to "find" the necessary votes to overcome any Biden deficits on Nov 3., later in subsequent weeks.
Thanks, judge Roberts.
Posted by: Attila the unreasonable at October 30, 2020 07:39 PM (w7KSn)
Posted by: Cosmic Charlie at October 30, 2020 07:39 PM (qiqGr)
In Chicagoland.
I thought I was the only conservative in this state.
Posted by: Roug at October 30, 2020 07:35 PM (aSdpz)
How big was it? Bigger than your average Biden rally?
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 07:39 PM (HabA/)
I was certain that America would never elect a blatantly leftist lightweight nobody clown with horrific baggage and already weighted down with scandals in Obama.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 07:40 PM (KZzsI)
Posted by: tubal at October 30, 2020 06:58
^^This. Many thanks Dave for all you share.
I've never had any angst over polls, unlike many who seem to forget they were massively wrong in 2016.
Posted by: Farmer at October 30, 2020 07:40 PM (ZKH8Q)
Scott Rasmussen got the boot from his polling company that bear his name after 2012 in part because of his perceived pro Republican bias was hurting the firm.
I think he learned that lesson and to keep his media contacts in good grace, he fudges it for business reasons.
Tralfalgar does state polling and no national polling at all. Their clients are people that want accurate polls at the state level which is not the media.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 07:40 PM (pO7gM)
Small electorate. Could shift if a certain portion of the SEIU vote isn't driven to the polls because the casinos aren't at 100% staffing.
Posted by: MJ
______________
This is my order for flips if things go our way:
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
I'm not expecting this though, but I do think Minnesota is a coin flip right now
Posted by: Blago at October 30, 2020 07:40 PM (gkdnV)
Every word out of their Cock Sucking Mouths is incompetent that Cow Farts make more sense.......... Sorry AOC about the Cow Fart Comment.
Posted by: James at October 30, 2020 07:28 PM (nOJDr)
I DVR and watch The Five, but always, ALWAYS, mute Juan Williams. He is just a Leftie talking point with no human conscience.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:40 PM (sy5kK)
I breathed in too much air pollution from a variety of auto manufacturing plants as a child which caused some sort of vague 'developmental difficulties'? Sure, that will work.
Posted by: shibumi, living in Clown World at October 30, 2020 07:40 PM (ZCiJZ)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 07:33 PM
A most cromulent Trading Places reference.
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (rBtIz)
I'd be happy with moving official election "day" to Thursday and Friday with early voting beginning same week on Monday.
Most importantly, do a nationwide "polls closed" time early Friday, maybe 3pm EST. Hawaii and Alaska could probably skip Friday in person voting.
No early vote counting. I think it's sketchy as hell that those results are public info in some states, and even sketchier when it's kept secret 'cause you know that data gets leaked to state party chiefs.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (+WWsf)
Anybody know what the actual average attendance is for a Biden rally?
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (3D/fK)
I was 110% sure the FAB would be the nominee in 2020.
Posted by: shibumi, living in Clown World at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (ZCiJZ)
Jill, honey...
That's DOCTOR Jill! Get it right, shitbird.
Ok, DOCTOR Jill, did I do good today? Can I have some applesauce now?
You did ok, but no applesauce yet. Take this handful of pills first.
I don't want to take the pills.
Joe, do you want the genital cuff?
Ok, I'll take the pills.
Damn right you will. You're not going to fuck this up for me. I will be First Lady! If a fucking linebacker from the Chicago fucking bears can be First Lady I can too.
Posted by: Duke Lowell at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (kTF2Z)
Posted by: Ladyl at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (TdMsT)
Posted by: andycanuck at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (an7Mv)
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 07:39 PM (HabA/)
---------------
Heh.
Not exactly setting a high bar there.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (WEBkv)
Robert Barnes
@Barnes_Law
· 2h
Due to worse-than-2016 Democratic performances in early vote, Democratic strategists now praying the polls are wrong about heavy GOP voting on election day.
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (NjyXk)
Posted by: Jamaica NYC at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (4vNgL)
I wonder, hypothetically, should I put the long sporting barrel on my12 gauge, or go with the 18.5 inch one. On the hypothetical shotgun, which I don't have.
Posted by: Semi-Literate Thug at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (VkfKI)
Posted by: rhomboid at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (OTzUX)
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:14 PM (9Om/r)
Just folks getting ready for Tuesday night, in classic NJ form.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:29 PM (sy5kK)
Actually, you never know. I'm in a red area.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (9Om/r)
Posted by: Gentlemen, this is democracy manifest at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (LWu6U)
not laughably , but I thought Romney had a chance...then reports of all the on -the-ground fuckups from people in the field started to come in. He could have done it , harnessed BO's failures and enthusiasm to get rid him, but Romney is a POS, who had ONE JOB and failed miserably. Because he never had a real honest job in his life. he always failed at things that were not handed to him on a silver platter.
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (zr5Kq)
Posted by: Blago
I'll throw in New Mexico, just based on the oil.
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (oR71r)
Buy one of each. Shotguns are cheap, esp used ones.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:43 PM (qpX6U)
In truth, most university polls are run like sweat shops and I have one pollster personally tell me (he worked for Harris back in the day) that he preferred using outside contractors to do the rdd phone calls rather than college students. Reason being, their attitude comes through on their calls.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 07:43 PM (pO7gM)
Posted by: Buzzion at October 30, 2020 07:43 PM (TO9X0)
Posted by: Roug at October 30, 2020 07:35 PM (aSdpz)
---
Seriously?
Checked out southern IL lately?
Posted by: SMH at October 30, 2020 07:43 PM (RU4sa)
Robert Barnes
@Barnes_Law
2h
Due to worse-than-2016 Democratic performances in early vote, Democratic strategists now praying the polls are wrong about heavy GOP voting on election day.
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (NjyXk)
==========
Which they won't be, of course, because there are far more Republican supervoters left than Democratic ones.
This ain't going to be close.
The activist left is going to be so pissed when they realize that Biden spent $2 billion solely to enrich to Democratic consultant class.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:43 PM (LvTSG)
I live in California. I have never been to Florida. You would think the area code would be a clue.
Posted by: KT at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (BVQ+1)
But I think in our AO we have nothing to worry about.
Posted by: rhomboid at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (OTzUX)
But just in case, we need a Victory Cocktail. It must include Prog tears.
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (ptqGC)
It's not fear of the minimum wage phone bank worker, but fear of that "dirty Republican" label ending up with advertisers and tech companies.
I think the fear goes hand=in-hand with distrust of left-leaning institutions and corporations these days.
And it's not misplaced.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (+WWsf)
Posted by: Blago
I'll throw in New Mexico, just based on the oil.
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (oR71r)
==========
Massachusetts!
Will go for Biden.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (LvTSG)
Peoples_Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
·
19m
Can confirm.
They're hanging on the fraud's Twitter rantings and map about NPAs in Florida swinging 2 to 1 for Biden.
It's unhealthy. Everyone, on both sides, could use a little reality.
********
This guy is just a pants shitter, I know Dave In Fla. likes him. But nah
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (NjyXk)
Young people might hate Trump, but I don't see them standing in line to vote against him and for Grandpa.
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V
_______________
You could totally see it with Obama, it must be how Democrats feel now when the see the Trump love.
Biden does not have that, the only coalition I see is upscale suburban hags.
Posted by: Blago at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (gkdnV)
sporting barrel on my12 gauge, or go with the 18.5 inch one. On the
hypothetical shotgun, which I don't have.
Posted by: Semi-Literate Thug at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (VkfKI)
===
Riot length.
Posted by: Jukin the Deplorable and Totally Unserious at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (pw+jk)
Well, there's Joe. And Jill, er excuse me, Dr. Jill. And the CNN camera guy...
Posted by: Bob the Bilderberg at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (qc+VF)
Makes me think of "She's blowin' up my Detroit". I like that one, and I guess it has a little double meanng this year.
Posted by: t-bird at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (JioHo)
This ain't going to be close.
The activist left is going to be so pissed when they realize that Biden spent $2 billion solely to enrich to Democratic consultant class.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:43 PM (LvTSG)
---------------
They learned well from the GOPe consulting class.
Oh, wait, they are one in the same, aren't they?
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (WEBkv)
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (3D/fK)
================
Trump supporters or Biden supporters?
Posted by: Cheerful Reprobate at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (7RecJ)
I was pretty sure he'd win in 2012 but I really wanted Romney to prevail.
I was ready for a Clinton win in 2016 but it didn't seem like she SHOULD win. She didn't really run a campaign and Trump totally out hustled her.
2020?
I think Trump will win. Biden is a flawed candidate that never had a chance without Covid. But people have Covid fatigue and they want their lives back. Not their Obama lives, their Trump lives.
Biden 48 - 46 over Trump.
Trump gets 280ish electoral votes and wins a second term.
Posted by: MJ at October 30, 2020 07:45 PM (gAMkn)
Posted by: humphreyrobot at October 30, 2020 07:45 PM (pB6Gt)
Well, there's Joe. And Jill, er excuse me, Dr. Jill. And the CNN camera guy...
Posted by: Bob the Bilderberg at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (qc+VF)
Sometimes the other Biden guy will show up
Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 30, 2020 07:45 PM (lafwu)
I DVR and watch The Five, but always, ALWAYS, mute Juan Williams. He is just a Leftie talking point with no human conscience.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg
He's like the straight man in a comedy team. He shows the left for what they are - brainless NPCs.
The appeals to the left, since they all agree, and the right since it makes them angry he is on and emotion drives ratings.
Posted by: Gentlemen, this is democracy manifest at October 30, 2020 07:45 PM (LWu6U)
we haven't gotten any this cycle, primary or upcoming.
and i always answer their questions...
maybe they have the number marked as "conservative", and don't bother?
Posted by: redc1c4 at October 30, 2020 07:45 PM (O/zEg)
Posted by: Poll Trolls at October 30, 2020 07:45 PM (7Fj9P)
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (qpX6U)
Posted by: Semi-Literate Thug
If I had not lost my Mossbergs in a tragic transatlantic voyage, I would have put the short barrels on them for defensive purposes.
Posted by: Tonypete at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (bJxw1)
Will go for Biden.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (LvTSG)
*sigh*
I rate this as true.
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (rBtIz)
Posted by: Poll Trolls at October 30, 2020 07:45 PM (7Fj9P)
==========
"The saltines are on order, now get out there and demoralize the right!"
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (LvTSG)
@Barnes_Law
2h
Due to worse-than-2016 Democratic performances in early vote, Democratic strategists now praying the polls are wrong about heavy GOP voting on election day.
Posted by: Ghost Of R
they are praying ???? HAHAHAHAH ! who are they praying to ? gods of the copybook headings? BAAL ? Godot ??
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (zr5Kq)
Posted by: 40 Miles North at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (uWF4x)
Sounds like a president to all American's to me.
Posted by: Bete at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (Ojki1)
Posted by: Ignatz D. Mouse at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (mEuEj)
Scott Rasmussen got the boot from his polling company that bear his name after 2012 in part because of his perceived pro Republican bias was hurting the firm.
I think he learned that lesson and to keep his media contacts in good grace, he fudges it for business reasons.
Tralfalgar does state polling and no national polling at all. Their clients are people that want accurate polls at the state level which is not the media.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 07:40 PM (pO7gM)
whig, I had forgotten about him getting the boot. Thank you for reminding me!
Yes, I watch Tralfalgar on twitter. Seem to be more accurate.
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM (cF8AT)
I think the fear goes hand=in-hand with distrust of left-leaning institutions and corporations these days.
And it's not misplaced.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (+WWsf)
--------------
If they have your phone number, it isn't hard to use the phone number to find out where one lives.
We already know the left doxxes for fun, frolics and violence.
No one on the right should trust any polling organization, ever.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM (WEBkv)
People aren't voting FOR Biden. They're voting against Trump.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (qpX6U)
=========
And Romney never gave a good reason for people to vote for the guy who set up Obamacare 1.0 other than he was not Obama.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM (LvTSG)
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM (oR71r)
Will go for Biden.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (LvTSG)
*sigh*
I rate this as true.
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (rBtIz)
It is a small and insignificant country.
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM (zr5Kq)
Posted by: 40 Miles North at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (uWF4x)
Sounds like a president to all American's to me.
Posted by: Bete at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (Ojki1)
*******
Ugly Felps
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM (NjyXk)
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
I'm not expecting this though, but I do think Minnesota is a coin flip right now
-----------------------
I like this list.
But past NH, I just don't see it. I want to believe!
Posted by: MJ at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM (gAMkn)
Posted by: occam's brassiere at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (evxBY)
Posted by: Cosmic Charlie at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (qiqGr)
Even assuming your anecdote exemplifies even a majority of black people and you're reading them accurately... that hurts the Democrats much more than Republicans.
Trump is crowing that he'll get 30% of the black vote. If they don't show up to vote, that means the Democrats lack that 70%.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (KZzsI)
Yeah, integrity is for losers.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (qpX6U)
Posted by: Joe at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (E/eSS)
398 Weasel--Take care of yourself and heal quickly, dahlin!!!
Posted by: Ladyl at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (TdMsT)
--------
Thank you, Annie O!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (MVjcR)
If they're going ahead with it, I assume their "men" will participate.
Posted by: Splunge at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (dOV9E)
Posted by: Cosmic Charlie
More gifts for the horde - Panic in Detroit is about how Detroit turned into a jungle. It is about the most racist song ever written - sex sounds, rioting, and jungle music. Seen through the eyes of a brit visiting the city and being overwhelmed by the chaos of it all.
Posted by: Gentlemen, this is democracy manifest at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (LWu6U)
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V
======
My 19 year old son, 18 year old daughter, and her 18 year old boyfriend are all enthusiastically voting for trump, FWIWI.
Posted by: Swingin' for the downs at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (uy0w8)
sporting barrel on my12 gauge, or go with the 18.5 inch one. On the
hypothetical shotgun, which I don't have.
Posted by: Semi-Literate Thug at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (VkfKI)
---
the short one: you're not taking long shots, and there's no upside to being "sporting" when you are defending you and yours.
after all, "If you are in a fair fight, your tactics suck."
Posted by: redc1c4 at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (O/zEg)
Posted by: 40 Miles North at October 30, 2020 07:01 PM (uWF4x)
We're "FILK"? Oh, mama!
Posted by: josephistan at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (Izzlo)
Oh gawd, Fox is airing the NY Times "We all gonna DIE!" covid map.
They are essentially correct. We are all going to die. Just not of COVID and not all right now.
Posted by: shibumi, living in Clown World at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (ZCiJZ)
BREAKING: Another Hunter Biden laptop was taken into custody during a DEA raid earlier this year at the office of a former celebrity psychiatrist in Massachusetts: Report https://washex.am/320ySb7
https://tinyurl.com/y3z4bfj2
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (cF8AT)
And got called a fcuking piece of shit by a Biden supporter while there.
---
I'm going to wear my Halloween costume when I go to vote on Tuesday, or at least as much of it as they'll let me wear. Not even kidding. I figure any antifa/BLM fanatics will think I'm one of them and leave me alone.
Posted by: Ex-liberal at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (R1mDg)
Having been there with five screws in my left ankle to show for it?
A bicycle makes for a pretty good rehab process. Of course, with ice n' snow likely for your next few months, it might have to be a stationary, indoor model, but the motion is the potion!
Worked for me, even in spite of a whole lot of nerve-loss and related loss of muscle control. Hell, if I had stuck with the Physical Therapists and their damned rubber bands, I likely would've never regained the full motion I now enjoy.
Choose your own course, and do what you know will work best for you.
Jim
Sunk New Dawn
Galveston, TX
Posted by: Jim at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (QzJWU)
DO NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING FROM THE LYING MEDIA. NOT A THING.
Posted by: Jukin the Deplorable and Totally Unserious at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (pw+jk)
Posted by: MJ at October 30, 2020 07:45 PM (gAMkn)
He is going to get less EVs than last time ??? okaaay...
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (zr5Kq)
Will go for Biden.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (LvTSG)
*sigh*
I rate this as true.
Posted by: RedMindBlueState
Don't the French have hundeds of words that combine true but stupid?
Posted by: humphreyrobot at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (pB6Gt)
shorturl.at/lrsS2
Posted by: Meremortal at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (Bwqq4)
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM
True. The left has destroyed my home. The founders weep.
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (rBtIz)
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
I'm not expecting this though, but I do think Minnesota is a coin flip right now
-----------------------
I like this list.
But past NH, I just don't see it. I want to believe!
Posted by: MJ at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM (gAMkn)
========
Maine seems possible.
Virginia could happen if the rurals come out enough, I think.
I talked to my dad who is a professor at Virginia Tech. The dorms are full with students, but only 7% of classes are in person. I imagine the universities in Virginia will be able to do their normal GOTV thing, so that will blunt the increase from the rural parts of VA.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (LvTSG)
Marry me and make me the happiest man on the planet!
Posted by: Count de Monet at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (DLzZd)
Will go for Biden.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (LvTSG)
*sigh*
I rate this as true.
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (rBtIz)
It is a small and insignificant country.
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:47 PM (zr5Kq)
It is a silly place
Posted by: josephistan at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (Izzlo)
Posted by: jsg at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (FIcu2)
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a shift to that being part of the message in the next couple of days. After all, it's just a matter of trunalimunumaprzure, so it makes sense. If people are finding it hard to vote for a potato in aviators, maybe a commie slut wanna-be dictator will fit the bill. It's that or keep hoping people hate Trump enough to vote against him.
Posted by: clutch cargo at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (8B6Ng)
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (ptqGC)
Posted by: Some rat in the swamp at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (oR71r)
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (MVjcR)
Will go for Biden.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:44 PM (LvTSG)
not this part
Posted by: REDACTED at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (R3uW8)
Tina Smith backdoor'd her way into the seat by appointment when Al Franken resigned, and she makes Susan Collins seem charismatic.
Bad "know-it-all PTA chairwoman" vibe whenever she speaks. They tried making her smile more in her television commercials too, but it just doesn't work.
So, yeah, I don't think Lewis is dead yet. Very little (good) public polling in this state, but last week, Survey USA had him only three points behind with 12 (!) points undecided.
Depends on last minute deciders, and I don't think all Biden voters are gonna go straight blue ticket.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (+WWsf)
----------------------------------------
I'm a pessimist.
Posted by: MJ at October 30, 2020 07:50 PM (gAMkn)
Posted by: Swingin' for the downs at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (uy0w
During our travels to the TX MoMe we saw several young people with Trump masks. We made sure to stop and compliment them on them.
Posted by: Jordan61-2020 TX MoMe Bacon Wench at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (KuT6N)
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (zr5Kq)
What commies pray to:
"Mukarjee could swear by the beard of the prophet or the nails of the
true cross and it wouldn't mean a thing. Because Mukarjee is a
goddamned, godless, atheist Marxist. And the only thing that he holds
sacred is Che Guevara's foreskin."
The quote is from Nicol Williamson in The Wilby Conspiracy.
Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (lafwu)
Posted by: TheJamesMadison
I suspect a fair amount of the dosh found its way to the activist left.
Posted by: Miklos, suspicious at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (QzkSJ)
Sundowner says he listens to science and Fouci will run it
Posted by: Skip at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (OjZpE)
Buy one of each. Shotguns are cheap, esp used ones.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:43 PM (qpX6U)
Two barrels, one lower.
- girls on pronhub
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (sy5kK)
Posted by: Jen the original at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (ASNqn)
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (rBtIz)
I am sorry...
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (zr5Kq)
I prefer to believe nobody.
Posted by: Infidel at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (32aJ9)
Another laptop tied to Hunter Biden was reportedly obtained by the Drug Enforcement Agency earlier this year.
Sources told NBC News that the device belonging to the 50-year-old son of former Vice President Joe Biden, who is now a presidential candidate, was taken into custody by the DEA in February while executing a search warrant in the Massachusetts office of a psychiatrist who was accused of professional misconduct.
That former celebrity psychiatrist, Keith Ablow, saw his license suspended after he faced allegations of sexually exploiting patients and illegally diverting prescription drugs. Ablow has denied the allegations and has not been charged with any crime.
The report from NBC on Friday said Hunter Biden was not a target of the search or the investigation, and his lawyer got the laptop back. It remains unclear why the device was there in the first place.
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (cF8AT)
Posted by: Cosmic Charlie at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM (qiqGr)
I breathed in too much air pollution from a variety of auto manufacturing plants as a child which caused some sort of vague 'developmental difficulties'? Sure, that will work.
Posted by: shibumi,
----
My neurologist tells me that I have had a stroke. It has become a catch-all excuse for anything dumb that I do. "Oh, I'm sorry. You see, I've had a stroke, and it damaged my reasoning power."
Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at October 30, 2020 07:52 PM (830x5)
I'm sure the NeverTrumpers will. You can't clutch 'em if you ain't wearing 'em.
Posted by: Bob the Bilderberg at October 30, 2020 07:52 PM (qc+VF)
Posted by: johnd01 at October 30, 2020 07:52 PM (TXvM3)
Posted by: Bert G at October 30, 2020 07:52 PM (OMsf+)
acc. Gateway Pundit, Joe spoke to 688 live people, Labor Day thru Oct 21st in 33 in-person events. So, 20, average.
Trump? 489,000 in 51 events.
Posted by: t-bird at October 30, 2020 07:52 PM (8eSmR)
Posted by: Jen the original
it's 2020
nothing makes sense this year
Posted by: DB- just DB. at October 30, 2020 07:52 PM (iTXRQ)
"My family is completely sane and really loves you!"
-- D'oh, convincing me to marry him
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 07:52 PM (ptqGC)
Posted by: Semi-Literate Thug at October 30, 2020 07:42 PM (VkfKI
On a hypothetical shotgun with barrel of 28", is it legal for the owner to take a hacksaw and make the barrel 18.5" long?
Posted by: JM in Florida at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (HCeRP)
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (zr5Kq)
Me too, and I'm doing my part in person on Tuesday morning.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (+WWsf)
Posted by: Blago
After crapping all over Trumps rally there, Keith Elison and Tim Walz may have handed the state to PDT tonight.
Posted by: Marybeth at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (4pK1/)
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 30, 2020 07:41 PM (3D/fK)
----
I watched Puddin's pathetic "rally" today. I'm pretty sure there were more Trump horn-honkers outside than Puddin supporters inside.
Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (sWM8x)
Posted by: Infidel at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (32aJ9)
Posted by: Jen
-------
Ah. A question which answers itself.
Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (830x5)
Are we going by wheels or humans?
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (ptqGC)
Posted by: Jordan61-2020 TX MoMe Bacon Wench at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (KuT6N)
Posted by: klaftern at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (RuIsu)
this past week I got a post card from the AP asking me to log in on line and fill out an election poll, or alternatively to call their 1-800 number.
In either case, I would have had to enter a PIN listed on the post card. I figured that the PIN would identify me as the Resident at my address, so I threw the thing in the trash.
It must really be bad if the AP is mailing out requests for their polls.
Posted by: ALH at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (YxfPJ)
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (rBtIz)
Posted by: Infidel at October 30, 2020 07:53 PM (32aJ9)
Yes.
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (cF8AT)
Posted by: Aetius451AD Work Laptop at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (cI3Q7)
Posted by: Jake Tapper hit hardest? at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (BBWrU)
I think the fear goes hand=in-hand with distrust of left-leaning institutions and corporations these days.
And it's not misplaced.
Posted by: Walter Freeman
___________________
If a major pollster called, I'd tell them Trump and I wouldn't be a bit scared.
Any of the Big Tech companies can see I'm a conservative by my browsing history.
"Come and get it" if they want to do something about me voting the wrong way.
I can understand being tepid about this stuff say at work, but our side needs to "man up" if this is why we go into elections thinking we're losing by 15 points. I think it hurts us.
Posted by: Blago at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (gkdnV)
Posted by: James at October 30, 2020 07:25 PM (nOJDr
*****************
Druids? Yep, those tree hugging, dress wearing, panty wasting cucks are natural Dem Biden cucks, but Visigoths?!!
Posted by: Sir Ian Botham at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (oaWXk)
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (qpX6U)
MUH TEGRITY.
Posted by: Ignatz D. Mouse at October 30, 2020 07:55 PM (mEuEj)
If I had not lost my Mossbergs in a tragic transatlantic voyage, I would have put the short barrels on them for defensive purposes.
Posted by: Tonypete at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (bJxw1)
Yeah, it takes about 30 seconds to change them out.
If you go slow.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:55 PM (sy5kK)
---
Yes, but be careful how you measure. There are good instructions on YouTube.
Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis at October 30, 2020 07:55 PM (sWM8x)
Just because she left that guy to be with me, doesn't mean she'll leave me to be with someone else!
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 07:55 PM (KZzsI)
--------
Hey man, don't think I've had a chance to say how good it was to meet you in TX.
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (MVjcR)
"My family is completely sane and really loves you!"
-- D'oh, convincing me to marry him
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 07:52 PM (ptqGC)
lol ! a man would do and say anything to get the woman he wants
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (zr5Kq)
75% of PA voters know about the Hunter Biden laptop story
70% of MI voters know
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 06:37 PM (5p7BC)
Is that because the porn part was immediately released? People looked at it because of prurient interests?
Posted by: clutch
------------
Alternate media and word of mouth. People in PA have been putting up yard signs about it. The word has gotten out past the censors.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (5p7BC)
Posted by: Infidel at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (32aJ9)
Posted by: m at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (QTJS/)
Yeah, doable, and I wouldn't be too surprised by Trump and Lewis won, but my gut says if enough suburban women swing Trump for him to win, then many might vote Smith 'cause she's a woman plus some guilty conscience for abandoning Biden.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (+WWsf)
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (V2Yro)
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (KZzsI)
Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (sd8p8)
You have helped to keep us sane (well, as sane as possible for us morons) throughout the constant gloom and doom being fired at us.
Posted by: db at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (E0PSG)
Posted by: Miklosov Miklosevich at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (QzkSJ)
Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (830x5)
(hey, it could be "Masturbatin' Pete!", so count your blessings)
Long time no see. Any fishing trips to RUSSIA!! lately?
Posted by: rhomboid at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (OTzUX)
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 07:55 PM (KZzsI)
--------------------------
True but the probabilities are not in your favor.
Ask me how I know.
Posted by: Braenyard at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (nm5sG)
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (ptqGC)
Mashed potatoes on the side.
/that is all.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing
at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (WEBkv)
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (zr5Kq)
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (cF8AT)
Posted by: Jake Tapper hit hardest? at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (BBWrU
Also, TWTR stock is down 21% today.
Maybe the Board will shitcan Jack Dorsey
Posted by: JM in Florida at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (HCeRP)
Posted by: James at October 30, 2020 07:25 PM (nOJDr
He's got the Vandals' vote locked up too.
Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (lafwu)
Posted by: vmom 2020 trunalimunumaprzure! at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (nUhF0)
Posted by: jsg at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (FIcu2)
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:51 PM
Beautiful state. Stupid freakin voters.
Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (rBtIz)
Posted by: Aetius451AD Work Laptop at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (cI3Q7)
Kyle lost his habeas motion. His criminal lawyers felt strongly that decision was erroneous. Kyle had absolute right of appeal to file on Monday. Unbeknownst to lawyers, Kyle was taken to Wisconsin which effectively mooted his appeal.
Something is not right with these events.
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (cF8AT)
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (KZzsI)
=========
"I allowed riots but won't allow more than 250 people to see President Trump."
-Tim Walz, a guy who apparently won election in MN once
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (LvTSG)
Tucker has a very special guest on tonight!
(Probably him)
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (cF8AT)
Maybe PDT?
Posted by: m at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (QTJS/)
Every one of them, I don't care who's asking.
Polling has become a grift and a wedge tool.
So fuggem. They can learn to code, just like everyone else.
Posted by: Open Channel D at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (gcQt5)
Mason-Dixon is an old line polling firm that only does state polling as well and is viewed as reputable. Dunno if they have changed their methodology though.
Survey USA has a spotty record, Quinnipiac is decent in NE but not so good outside it in state polling and Marquette used to be decent in WI polls. Most of the university poll operations do not do very well outside of states their geographic region and given teh sharp blue turn in undergrads in many places, they may suffer due to the poor attitude that hurts responses and full interview. One has to have a demeanor like a bartender in order to get a good response rate from all sorts--haughty and obnoxious does not cut it.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (pO7gM)
Posted by: humphreyrobot at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (pB6Gt)
Posted by: rhomboid at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (OTzUX)
---
Overall length must be considered also. 27" (?)
Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (bk3Sg)
Even assuming your anecdote exemplifies even a majority of black people and you're reading them accurately... that hurts the Democrats much more than Republicans.
Trump is crowing that he'll get 30% of the black vote. If they don't show up to vote, that means the Democrats lack that 70%.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (KZzsI)
I know. I'm talking about the Dems hopes for the black vote. They've been effective in scaring them but now they basically have to hope they ignore those fears they've instilled into them
Posted by: Buzzion at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (TO9X0)
Posted by: Aetius451AD Work Laptop at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (cI3Q7)
Dem voters were cool with a known murderess. Why should they care about Joe?
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (XJipD)
If it was someone in control of their thought processes I'd ask is that 30,000 something he knows but isn't supposed to admit?
Posted by: Skip at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (OjZpE)
Seriously?
Checked out southern IL lately?
Posted by: SMH at October 30, 2020 07:43 PM (RU4sa)
SMH!!!!
When you talked about your background at the MoMe, my respect for you, already very good, rose to stratospheric levels.
We had a discussion on last night's ONT about the feasibility of an electric tank. We were missing your expertise.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (sy5kK)
Posted by: runner at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (zr5Kq)
=========
It's never about the committed partisans.
It's about the soft left support that can be convinced to stay home because Biden's a scumbag father and crony, and the Republicans who want Biden instead of Trump because Trump is icky.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (LvTSG)
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (ptqGC)
Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (sd8p
Trump is so busting his a** for this, I am delighted to see those supporters show up for him in Minnesota. He's got to appreciate it.
Posted by: JM in Florida at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (HCeRP)
Posted by: JM in Florida at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (HCeRP)
-----------
Make him take a bath and shave before he can come to the meeting.
Posted by: Braenyard at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (nm5sG)
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (V2Yro)
Posted by: Jake Tapper hit hardest? at October 30, 2020 07:54 PM (BBWrU
Also, TWTR stock is down 21% today.
Maybe the Board will shitcan Jack Dorsey
Posted by: JM in Florida at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (HCeRP)
=========
And get rid of their whipping boy?
I think not.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, levelling Metropolis to save it at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (LvTSG)
Posted by: Brown Hornet at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (l7udz)
Posted by: Ignatz D. Mouse at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (mEuEj)
at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (WEBkv)
We ha Mexican for lunch. I got the half order of nachos. I smuggled in a Diet Coke because that restaurant serves Pepsi products and this is Georgia, home of Coca-Cola, dammit.
Posted by: ALH at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (YxfPJ)
Posted by: Rbastid at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (XwTyM)
I can't decide if this slow Hunter Biden news drip is right-wing "prepare to be impeached in 2022 when there's a 2010-like mid-term red wave" or (and) left-wing "we were always gonna backdoor Kamala into the presidency sooner than anyone expected" propaganda.
Embrace the healing power of "why not both", I guess.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (+WWsf)
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 07:58 PM (pO7gM)
Yes, and even then it's hard to get.
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (cF8AT)
Checked out southern IL lately?
Posted by: SMH at October 30, 2020 07:43 PM (RU4sa)
--------
Hey SMH!!!
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (MVjcR)
Posted by: vmom 2020 trunalimunumaprzure! at October 30, 2020 08:00 PM (nUhF0)
Here's something funny:
Catty Daddy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_VAuSHWTLk
(No cats involved)
Posted by: Soothsayer's Untrue But Accurate Tales at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (ScPIO)
I prefer to believe nobody."
Yeah, for me the biggest loser of 2020 has to be the medical profession. So much bad data, so much corruption, so much political motive. How the fuck did we ever eradicate smallpox? Not with this current crop of bozos.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (qpX6U)
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (KZzsI)
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (ptqGC)
Posted by: Skip at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (OjZpE)
I would not bet 2 cents on the accuracy of Joe's cognitive processes.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (V2Yro)
When have you been laughably wrong on a prognostication?
Posted by: RKae at October 30, 2020 06:55 PM (bqDVF)
................
I thought Kristi Noem would never make it further in politics than our Rep. Despite being cute, listening to her talk would cure an insomniac.
Posted by: Molly k. at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (4I/L6)
"Just saw video of the crowd in Rochester, MN. It is huge! Only 250
allowed inside but thousands showed up anyways. Trump should just move
the podium outside"
I know it isn't Trump's biggest concern right now but I think there could be a Constitutional issue that should be raised on this. Trump supporters didn't give up their right to peaceably assemble because of Covid.
Posted by: lowandslow at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (4thlk)
Tucker has a very special guest on tonight!
(Probably him)
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (cF8AT)
Maybe Rudy.
Posted by: m at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (QTJS/)
Posted by: runner
--------
They do it for every Dem. Some are just more apparent than others. Character and integrity are of no concern whatsoever.
Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (bk3Sg)
I was really looking forward to seeing the stripper babymomma on the campaign trail.
Sadly, it hasn't happened.
Posted by: Rodrigo Borgia at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (VikfB)
Posted by: Eromero at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (XhWtx)
Posted by: ALH at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (YxfPJ)
The very first thing he did after landing was jump in the limo and head out to see the thousands of people that got screwed out hearing their President speak.
President Trump could bypass all these small cities but he doesn't. For many of these people this would have been the first time they would have heard their President speak directly to them with the added bonus that it would happen in their hometown. But those Marxist assholes couldn't help themselves, they had to shit on that, they had to steal that from these good people.
What is remarkable is the people, knowing the were not going to get to hear the President, still showed in the thousands to let honor him.
The polls maybe broken but one thing that isn't is how Americans can love a president and this great country.
Posted by: Anti Marx - Pro Lennon at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (ESLBo)
Posted by: Aetius451AD Work Laptop at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (cI3Q7)
True, brain-dead tribal robot Dem voters and deranged Trump-haters won't be affected, but 1) many of them have already voted and 2) there's a reasonable chance these last few twigs could break the camel's back of "late deciders". There aren't a lot of those, but in some places enough to make the rubble bounce, and perhaps have down-ticket effects.
Posted by: rhomboid at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (OTzUX)
Posted by: Cosmic Charlie at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (qiqGr)
Tucker has a very special guest on tonight!
(Probably him)
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:57 PM (cF8AT)
Maybe Rudy.
Posted by: m at October 30, 2020 08:01 PM (QTJS/)
Oh boy!
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (ptqGC)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (yQpMk)
I teach AP Stats and we have been talking a lot about stuff like the Bradley effect/Wilder effect and were discussing reasons that the 2016 polls were so wrong. The information on response rates was helpful (landline days vs cell phone days). We also wondered if there was some kind of confounding with personalities who actually answer unknown numbers on their phones these days. Seems like we know who doesn't - white working-class males/likely Trump voters!
Posted by: WesternSib at October 30, 2020 08:03 PM (PIJ1n)
Posted by: lowandslow at October 30, 2020 08:03 PM (4thlk)
Why is he laughing? He's really watching Airplane. I kind of want to smother him with a pillow, but not until he's done reading.
/thank you for your time. please continue with your previous discussion
Posted by: shibumi, living in Clown World at October 30, 2020 07:31 PM (ZCiJZ)
I kind of want to smother him with a pillow,...
As a formerly married guy, let me offer you some advice. He might be 'As Good As It Gets'. Replacement costs can run quite high. And if this a job interview...
I'm gonna need some pics.
Posted by: GnuBreed at October 30, 2020 08:03 PM (F0YaR)
Posted by: Bete at October 30, 2020 07:46 PM (Ojki1)
He's the guy who is going to unite us!
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 08:03 PM (HabA/)
Posted by: Jane D'Oh at October 30, 2020 08:04 PM (ptqGC)
Big difference between profiling your (household's) likely voting intention by internet browsing, magazine subscriptions, etc., and having your personal data on file 'cause you directly replied to a phone survey.
Might not seem like much to you, but it matters to the guys who database this stuff and sell to third parties.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 08:05 PM (+WWsf)
Depends on whether you plan to use it within the home to sweep it or getting in and out cars.
Long barrels are preferred if you hole up in place as they put blast and noise much further down the barrel from your ears. The further from the barrel your ears are, the greater the noise reduction--sound waves follow an inverse square law regarding spread.
18.5 inchers are for mobile use to reduce the ease of someone grabbing it when clearing a house and such and to get in and out of vehicles more easily. 20 or 24 inch barrels do about the same thing in reality, but the 18.5 captured the interest of people. Law enforcement and other serious types, go to something like 14 inch barrels but those are an NFA item requiring uncle sam's approval and a $200 tax stamp.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 08:05 PM (pO7gM)
Posted by: lowandslow at October 30, 2020 08:03 PM (4thlk)
I knew those two assholes were going to lose the minute they were nominated.
Posted by: Ignatz D. Mouse at October 30, 2020 08:06 PM (mEuEj)
--------
Hey man, don't think I've had a chance to say how good it was to meet you in TX.
Posted by: Weasel at October 30, 2020 07:56 PM (MVjcR)
And back at ya', Weasel!
Beyond all the incredible gun knowledge, the friendships made there will last a lifetime.
Morons are the best people in the world. The best.
I didn't realize how much fun I had until it hit me sitting at the airport going home.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 08:06 PM (sy5kK)
Overall length must be considered also. 27" (?)
Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at October 30, 2020 07:59 PM (bk3Sg)
Good to know!! This is not a "Wanted Dead or Alive" length, just a standard 20-gauge with the long barrel.
Posted by: JM in Florida at October 30, 2020 08:06 PM (HCeRP)
We all overlook the flaws of our candidates. No candidate represents each person's views 100%. All candidates are sinners in one way or another. Choosing political representation inevitably involves tradeoffs and sacrifices.
Otherwise we wouldn't have coined the phrase "muh principles!"
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 08:06 PM (qpX6U)
Minneapolis was boarding up downtown business all day today, and presumably through the weekend, so you're right, people around here won't forget.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 30, 2020 08:07 PM (+WWsf)
Posted by: Rbastid at October 30, 2020 08:07 PM (XwTyM)
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 08:01
Going to med school, even public policy health grads, used to be on merit
Posted by: And Big Pharma is no help either at October 30, 2020 08:07 PM (BBWrU)
Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at 06:52 PM
Here's a stupid question: what is the purpose of polling?
Why do I care what anyone else thinks about... anything?
And why would I want to tell some random asshole calling me what I think about... anything?
Seriously, what the fuck is the point to polling?
Does anyone remember or give a shit what the "polling" said in June 2004 about the Presidential election?
Hell no.
So, why the hell does "polling" even exist?
Posted by: Clyde Shelton at October 30, 2020 08:07 PM (Do5/p)
Posted by: Cosmic Charlie at October 30, 2020 08:07 PM (qiqGr)
I just drove past a Trump rally.
In Chicagoland.
I thought I was the only conservative in this state.
Posted by: Roug at October 30, 2020 07:35 PM (aSdpz)
There were a number of Trump car rallies last Sunday in the Chicago burbs
Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 30, 2020 08:07 PM (lafwu)
I know 2 very lib women who who have moved to CA but still have their WI phone numbers.
If they get called by pollsters, do the pollsters actually check to see what state they are actually living in? If those 2 got polled for WI - well, that's hilarious. They moved to Cali because WI was too conservative for them. Well, and cold too.
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 08:08 PM (HabA/)
There is *no way in hell* Maine is completely going for PDT. Not a snowballs' chance.
Now will he get the 1EV from the 2nd district (because we split our EV votes)? Maybe. There were way too many Gideon signs from Augusta up through Farmington and Rangeley for my liking two weeks back. Heading up there again tomorrow and will see what the ratio is. This district put a socialist Democrat in the House in 2018.... (thanks to Ranked Choice Voting)
Posted by: Defenestratus at October 30, 2020 08:08 PM (9V81o)
Maybe they were in on something together? Drugs? Selling drugs for weird sex?
Posted by: Bosk at October 30, 2020 08:08 PM (SWbVS)
Posted by: Cosmic Charlie at October 30, 2020 08:09 PM (qiqGr)
To make money for pollsters, and for media that deliver poll results.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 08:09 PM (qpX6U)
Yes, one drove by me in Rockford. It gladdened my heart.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 08:10 PM (qpX6U)
Liberal Hivemind's coverage of the polls:
https://youtu.be/EPolkGIqZ3E
And the elephant in the room...the defection of blacks (among other things)
Posted by: CPT. Charles at October 30, 2020 08:10 PM (W+kMI)
Posted by: Defenestratus at October 30, 2020 08:08 PM (9V81o)
Does ME have a parliamentary system of government?
Posted by: Catch Thirty-Thr33 at October 30, 2020 08:11 PM (3DJkT)
But, getting people to answer income questions and other such sensitive information in phone surveys was like pulling teeth even before people widely distrusted govt and telephone calls. The folks that I called, at least, for the most part, knew I was calling and caller id was a new fangled expensive thing.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 08:11 PM (pO7gM)
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 30, 2020 08:13 PM (G51Gf)
Because he would split with a few GOP issues back when he was getting started in the late 70's early 80's. He was the leftist media darling even back then, you couldn't watch a Sunday morning news show without that asshole on it.
Posted by: lowandslow at October 30, 2020 08:13 PM (4thlk)
Posted by: WesternSib at October 30, 2020 08:13 PM (PIJ1n)
BREAKING: Another Hunter Biden laptop was taken into custody during a DEA raid earlier this year at the office of a former celebrity psychiatrist in Massachusetts: Report https://washex.am/320ySb7
https://tinyurl.com/y3z4bfj2
Posted by: Tami at October 30, 2020 07:49 PM (cF8AT)
Is this the laptop that NBC reported about earlier? You know, the story that was designed to confuse and obfuscate the pervert's picture laptop everyone else has known about for over a week now?
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 08:14 PM (sy5kK)
You need to evaluate whether those signs are in the public right of way or at people's houses or businesses.
Public right of way signs can be put there en masse by any paid jughead campaign worker to create a bandwagon effect. On someone's property, they are committed.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 08:14 PM (pO7gM)
Posted by: Toni at October 30, 2020 08:14 PM (/c+mq)
Posted by: Ghost Of Ruth Buzzi Ginsberg
-------------
I like his honesty and willingness to be wrong while showing his numbers.
But I take him with a grain of salt. He is a professional pollster and very much tied to his industry. It blinds him to obvious signs that point in the opposite direction.
But I also am very wary of my own confirmation bias, so I listen to what he says as a brake.
Also, I like Robert Barnes more. He is less tied to polling, and also less tied to the results of elections. He makes money by gambling on elections, so he is highly motivated to be right, regardless of personal preference. He hasn't lost money on an election yet.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 08:15 PM (5p7BC)
And I had some questions for Dave... (sniffle)
Posted by: Blonde Morticia
-----------
I'm still here BM
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2020 08:16 PM (5p7BC)
Posted by: And Big Pharma is no help either at October 30, 2020 08:07 PM (BBWrU)
I have a nephew in first year of med school. Doing it online. ONLINE. Tell me that is the same as in person.
Posted by: JM in Florida at October 30, 2020 08:17 PM (HCeRP)
Posted by: Skip at October 30, 2020 08:17 PM (OjZpE)
The correct answer for 2016 was 100% chance Trump would win with 306 EVs. Any other estimates (polls) of how people would vote need to be weighed against the real result of how those same people DID vote ... it is nothing about Trump beating (true) odds, only about how wrong the odds makers were.
Posted by: illiniwek at October 30, 2020 08:19 PM (Cus5s)
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 08:19 PM (pO7gM)
Posted by: Pete Seria
He was CAC, and also did astronomy posts. He had a diversity marriage, fathered a child, then lost his mind.
Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 30, 2020 08:20 PM (u82oZ)
https://youtu.be/_5bW5eqMTfU
It can be argued that Biden is one of the MOST corrupt politicians in the history of the US, IMO.
Posted by: CPT. Charles at October 30, 2020 08:21 PM (W+kMI)
Well, you've been married a long time to have your first marital discord. May the make-up sex be worth it.
Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 30, 2020 08:21 PM (u82oZ)
Posted by: ShainS at October 30, 2020 08:22 PM (WqPYg)
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 30, 2020 07:48 PM (KZzsI)
Trump seems to appeal to a very specific black demographic- young blue collar men who are not poisoned by BLM rhetoric. Those are probably the ones least frightened by wuflu.
Black women and older black voters are the ones most firmly tied to the Dems - for freebies and because it's hard to change life-long voting habits.
They're also the ones who would be most afraid of corona.
Posted by: Donna&&&&&V at October 30, 2020 08:23 PM (HabA/)
Posted by: Eromero at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (XhWtx)
Hahahahaha!
You're just messing with them. That's funny stuff, Eromero.
Like a cat messing with a few mice in a closed area.
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 08:24 PM (sy5kK)
It would be a smart branding move for those networks because no regular network would dare offer something similar.
It would have the surreal quality of the best of SCTV (the early years).
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 08:24 PM (pO7gM)
What is remarkable is the people, knowing the were not going to get to hear the President, still showed in the thousands to let honor him.
The polls maybe broken but one thing that isn't is how Americans can love a president and this great country.
Posted by: Anti Marx - Pro Lennon at October 30, 2020 08:02 PM (ESLBo)
Good stuff.
Please post more often!
Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at October 30, 2020 08:26 PM (sy5kK)
We laugh at their gaslighters, and we believe ours.
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 08:26 PM (qpX6U)
Your question might be answered in the crosstabs of the Rasmussen polling responses showing the greatest number of blacks approving of Trump.
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 08:27 PM (pO7gM)
I remember your 2012 election coverage very well. I followed you (and only you)and was really feeling confident about Romney the night of the election.
Then the results came and I could not sleep all night. I was so depressed and angry. I even yelled at my poor wife who was calling from AZ to support me as I was in NYC for a very important meeting.
I somehow got myself together and killed my presentation to a very important audience at 8 AM ET, next day.
--
Thanks for this post - I was wondering about what lessons one should learn from that fiasco... it really helps.
Even today - I see what my eyes see (all this enthusiasm for Trump, rallies, parades, etc) but I am just so scarred from 2012 that I do not want to believe anything till the real results come.
MAGA 2020!!
Posted by: losing now at October 30, 2020 08:27 PM (Q6G3G)
Posted by: whig at October 30, 2020 08:31 PM (pO7gM)
Because he would split with a few GOP issues back when he was getting started in the late 70's early 80's. He was the leftist media darling even back then, you couldn't watch a Sunday morning news show without that asshole on it.
Posted by: lowandslow at October 30, 2020 08:13 PM (4thlk)
------
Stole some of Top Gun thunder.
Posted by: MAGA (I got rabies for Trump) at October 30, 2020 08:37 PM (AB7ku)
Posted by: WTP at October 30, 2020 08:45 PM (WQfDg)
Posted by: gp's Dark Energy Acceleration at October 30, 2020 08:26 PM (qpX6U)
We also laugh at their mobys, pal.
Posted by: Ignatz D. Mouse at October 30, 2020 08:51 PM (mEuEj)
Posted by: Go 'way, toobin at October 30, 2020 08:58 PM (9p+wn)
Thanks for all the info Dave in Fla...
CNN and MSNBC both have lead stories on the surging death plague, ESPECIALLY IN BATTLEGROUND STATES.
I'm guessing they're trying to depress Trump voter turnout believing Biden has enough early votes.
Good luck with that...
Posted by: Stateless Infidel at October 30, 2020 07:11 PM (v2c9/)
I actually think this may help Republicans who are far less concerned than lefitst about going to a polling place. A bunch of Dems I know are afraid to leave their house.
Posted by: Forheremenaremen at October 30, 2020 09:08 PM (pmRSz)
A question? I'm thrilled to see the great GOP early voting ... but are you at all concerned this is just cannibilization? In other words, are these just early votes that will result in the GOP having a a weaker 'election day' turnout than expected?
Posted by: Forheremenaremen at October 30, 2020 09:12 PM (pmRSz)
Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 30, 2020 08:20 PM (u82oZ)
I'll never forget when he stopped updating decision desk on election night because Willard got his ass kicked.
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at October 30, 2020 09:15 PM (Gc15h)
Posted by: Henry O. at October 30, 2020 09:22 PM (tW1k9)
Probably aiming for a good solid B+
Posted by: Mike at October 30, 2020 09:46 PM (/A6g2)
of a Romney victory in 2012. I literally hid for 6 months after that,
out of shame."
Think that's bad? I voted for Romney.....
Posted by: spike at October 30, 2020 11:01 PM (VxxX3)
Obola always was like that. Barely a C- student.
Posted by: Loki at October 30, 2020 11:17 PM (vLgLl)
Posted by: Attila the unreasonable
When did u think that?
I knew Calizuela was done after Prop 187 was overturned. I remember telling my mom I voted for it and she said I was a horribly heartless person.
I told her I lived in LA and i was seeing the future, and it was the end of California and maybe the US. She said, oh, thats a long time and that I wouldnt live to see it . I told her sorry, you wont. But my kids and I will. It hurt her feelings (I was a heartless bastard sometimes) but I was right.
Now I have to leave Calizuela soon mostly so I can give my kids a better future. Here they will be second class citizens. And it was nice people like my mom who made it happen. Sorry mom. You were so wrong.
Posted by: Loki at October 30, 2020 11:25 PM (vLgLl)
Posted by: Dave in Fla
When they are producing results that show Biden over Trump by11-14 points. They are corrupt. Because it doesnt pass the smell test and is obviously bs.
Posted by: Loki at October 30, 2020 11:32 PM (vLgLl)
Posted by: Stacy0311 at October 31, 2020 12:21 AM (SqpTW)
Posted by: the fag conference at October 31, 2020 02:06 AM (aOXFH)
fags are us.
If you guys' don't save the world.
I will lose all faith.
Seems' the over welminging army is here!?
Good thing we all got along.
Hell is com'n and Trump is com'n with .....
This is the part of the question?
Posted by: the fag conference at October 31, 2020 02:15 AM (aOXFH)
Posted by: Steve at October 31, 2020 02:18 AM (UCOyo)
Posted by: Vitaeus at October 31, 2020 04:07 AM (v3pYe)
Article title: "Tarnished Silver". If his polling was again broken and off, someone go ahead and use that to refer to Nate Silver. Let it stick to him, just like Sleepy, Creepy Joe Biden.
And maybe he can Learn To Code. Again. Because whatever way he's programming things right now needs a good review.
Posted by: Another Anon at November 03, 2020 08:35 AM (UHq0G)
Posted by: it mov'd at November 04, 2020 01:19 AM (aOXFH)
Posted by: fuck'n furry' at November 04, 2020 01:21 AM (aOXFH)
folling you yo the top!
Posted by: shoe box design at November 04, 2020 01:23 AM (aOXFH)
it was my idea to go up river!?
Posted by: shoe box design at November 04, 2020 01:30 AM (aOXFH)
Posted by: fags or heat at November 04, 2020 01:31 AM (aOXFH)
Posted by: fags or heat at November 04, 2020 01:32 AM (aOXFH)
Posted by: it bitty at November 04, 2020 01:33 AM (aOXFH)
Posted by: lazy river at November 04, 2020 01:34 AM (aOXFH)
wasting my time right here at net, but I realize I
am just getting experience at all times by reading thes good
articles.
Posted by: LeenaDSorvig at November 28, 2020 01:32 AM (Slfbe)
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Real Clear Politics
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George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an F*ckin' Hammer
Democratic Forays into Erotica
New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network
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Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse
Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party"
Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad
Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up
Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry
NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom
Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?"
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All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd
Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran
Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore
Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery
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Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance
Collective Names for Groups of People
John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets
Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle
Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy
Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive"
Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments
John Edwards Campaign Excuses
John Kerry Pick-Up Lines
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Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
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Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)