How NOT To Look at a Pandemic [Muldoon]

In 2018 my wife and I were in the middle of a major outbreak. The origin of the outbreak was within a few miles of us. It started slowly, but by the third day it was obvious that a lot of people would be affected. The outbreak spread like wildfire, slowly at first and then with increasing rate of spread in exponential fashion. As it raged people began to panic. Local authorities quickly realized they would be unable to contain the spread and they called for federal assistance in the form of a Crisis Management team. The Feds locked down the local community, restricted travel and took charge of available resources. Daily public briefings were held, reporting on the extent of the outbreak, detailing the daily spread, the hotspots, the allocation of resources and explaining strategies for the short term future. In spite of this, the outbreak raged out of control, threatening more and more people. Efforts shifted away from trying to contain the outbreak to trying to mitigate individual losses. Over the course of about two weeks, the darned thing ran out of new places to spread, and gradually petered out. Some folks paid a high cost, others lost nothing. At the end of it all, the Crisis Management Team had not extinguished the outbreak. They had some small scale successes around the edges, but ultimately it didn't stop spreading until it had run its own natural course. This outbreak was not an infectious disease, it was the Spring Creek Wildfire in Colorado, second largest in state history in terms of acres consumed. One hundred and thirty five of our neighbors lost their mountain homes.

I tell you that story to tell you this one.

Respiratory virus outbreaks and forest fires have a lot of similarities. They require a spark, an initial point of entry. They require a susceptible population with environmental or cultural conditions that allow for it to start to spread. They both thrive on unaffected regions and can expand slowly at first, then rapidly. They both are capricious and nondiscriminatory in their destructiveness. They both are largely impervious to the puny efforts of man to contain them once they are in full swing. And neither of them goes on forever. Eventually they run out of susceptible hosts (or unburned trees) and the factors that sustain the contagion peter out.

Here are some things that I've tried to keep in mind in regard to the COVID-19 pandemic. I don't really have an overarching theme or any grand predictions, but here goes:

Projections/Predictions: Epidemiologists live for moments like these. Early on, once the disease is identified and shown to have some predilection for a substantial mortality rate, the epidemiologic sleuths begin their investigation. Early reports of how many people will be infected by a single index case (patient "Zero") are calculated, giving the so-named R-0 value. That early R-0 value allows the predictions to begin. These things start slow before they grow rapidly before they slow down again. The pros run models based on projected rates of rise (among other variables) and come up with a range of possible outcomes. This range may or may not contain the actual final numbers, but that's okay, it's just an educated guess. What gets reported to the public however, is generally the high end of that range. We've all heard the reports of "Experts say this virus could infect XXX million people and result in the deaths of XX million!" As a general rule, however, it is likely that the eventual real-life numbers will be closer to the middle of the range than to either of the extremes (high or low). If you can find it reported, look at the overall range, not just the sensationalist "worst-case scenarios". Remember the old adage, if you ask a barber, he's going to tell you that you need a haircut.

Rate of Increase: Be it SARS, MERS, COVID-19 or seasonal influenza, viral outbreaks start slow, then grow at steadily increasing rates until they reach a maximum and then start to decline. Consider the rate of growth to be the proportional day-to-day increase in number of confirmed cases. For example, if you have 100 cases today and tomorrow the total has climbed to 130, the daily rate of increase is 30%. Understanding that this daily rate of increase is not constant is key to understanding the trajectory of an outbreak. Any predictions based on "at the current rate of growth XX people will be infected" will frankly be wrong because in the real world the rate DOES NOT remain constant. In general the rate is slow at first, steadily increases to a maximum, then starts to steadily decline. There may be some small fluctuations up and down, but the overall trend follows that same pattern. By my calculations some representative rates of increase for the most recently reported data are: U.S. 32%, Italy 8%, Spain 13%, France 15%, Germany 19%.

The art of modeling epidemics hinges on trying to gauge the steepness and the duration of the increase. These two factors determine the trajectory. This can be a little like driving on a twisty mountain road by looking in your rearview mirror, as you have to rely on yesterday's data. In the last week, Italy's daily rate of increase has continued a trend of decreasing and is now below 10%. And, lo and behold, they have reported a decrease in the absolute number of new daily cases over the last three days. I've noticed that once the rate of increase drops below10% a decrease in the absolute number of new cases comes soon after.

Be leery of graphs: Make sure you understand what is being graphed, what scale is being used and how stretched or compressed the depiction is. They can be visually deceptive and can add to your own uncertainty as you try to make sense of it all.

Distortion of time: When an outbreak has been covered in the news media, blogs, social media and whatnot to the extent the COVID-19 outbreak has, where it is virtually the only thing being discussed, it is easy to get caught up in a distortion of the time scale. It seems like it has been going on forever, right? At the beginning of March, Italy had barely 1000 confirmed cases. Now, a mere three weeks later it is showing signs of peaking. I find it useful to step back and reconsider the overall timeframe.

Although I do not have a crystal ball or a time machine, I am confident (based on past similar outbreaks such as SARS, personal experience in other outbreaks such as H1N1 influenza during my years in medical practice and my own observations of the real-time data available to the public) that this outbreak will run its course and burn out, just as the Spring Creek Wildfire did in 2018.

Disclaimers: I am a retired physician. I am NOT an epidemiologist. I am NOT an infectious disease specialist, and whatever expertise I may have in infectious disease is in the clinical realm, not the statistical realm. I do NOT claim to know when this epidemic will peak in the U.S. and make NO predictions regarding death rates, impact on the medical personnel and infrastructure of the country, stock market or political repercussions. I recognize that data is imperfect, and temper my analysis with a willingness to reassess as new information comes to light.

Posted by: Open Blogger at 09:15 PM




Comments

(Jump to bottom of page)

1 First!!

Posted by: Jmel at March 25, 2020 09:20 PM (OeWgo)

2 Thanks Muldoon!

Posted by: Muad'dib at March 25, 2020 09:22 PM (/bKbU)

3 Not nearly enough limericks.

Posted by: deplorable unperson - sanitized for your protection at March 25, 2020 09:23 PM (mw1Wz)

4 Flurfth!

Posted by: All Hail Eris, She-Wolf of the 'Ettes 'Ettes at March 25, 2020 09:24 PM (Dc2NZ)

5 Hola

Posted by: Thanatopsis at beautiful Chancre del Diablo ranch at March 25, 2020 09:24 PM (KM9D1)

6 Friends of mine in relevant disciplines (med school faculty) seem to hold epidemiology in fairly low esteem.

Thoughts? Is that a more widely held viewpoint?

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at March 25, 2020 09:24 PM (YqDXo)

7 If the rate of increase in temperature remains constant, my property will be molten lava by Christmas.

Posted by: Grump928(C) at March 25, 2020 09:25 PM (yQpMk)

8 Muldoon, you should definitely check out this amazing "pandemic simulator" web page that allows you to adjust the parameters to see how far and fats it spreads -- extremely well-done.

https://www.meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/

Try to the simulator about 2/3s of the way down the page with all four parameter sliders. Addictive. And informative!

Posted by: zombie at March 25, 2020 09:25 PM (N9G0H)

9 tl;dr
The abyss will look back.

Okay, I didn't actually read it, will now.

Posted by: Methos at March 25, 2020 09:26 PM (kOpft)

10 This was very helpful..thank you!

Posted by: lizabth at March 25, 2020 09:26 PM (L3Rsz)

11 hiya

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:26 PM (lntLM)

12 U sure is smart for an old white dude!!

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 09:26 PM (UUBmN)

13 FIRST!!!!!

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (Zz0t1)

14 I had the flu a couple of years ago. I can understand how people die from it. I was really sick.

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (lntLM)

15 Thank you for that perspective.

Posted by: Marlene at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (QIblF)

16 precipiliphontine

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (zr5Kq)

17 Where's the Executive Summary?

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (XVuno)

18 That's a fucking long ass limerick.

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (Zz0t1)

19 Level-headedness and circumspection at a time like THIS?! What the HELL is WRONG WITH YOU??!!

Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (NWiLs)

20 OK, the limerick genius is a doctor, too? That's just not fair.

Posted by: Splunge at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (dOV9E)

21 Need a spreadsheet?

Posted by: Count de Monet at March 25, 2020 09:28 PM (q1Pj5)

22 Very interesting.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:28 PM (zr5Kq)

23 That's the worst limerick I have ever read....

;-)

But more seriously, thanks to Muldoon for the commentary.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at March 25, 2020 09:28 PM (xSo9G)

24 Sponge!!!!!

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:28 PM (lntLM)

25 Thank you, Doc
Have a great night

Posted by: LArro at March 25, 2020 09:28 PM (10GNe)

26 14 I had the flu a couple of years ago. I can understand how people die from it. I was really sick.
Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (lntLM)

Or want to. Lord it's ugly.

Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:28 PM (NWiLs)

27 Thanks, Muldoon.

Posted by: dantesed at March 25, 2020 09:28 PM (88xKn)

28 America will come out of this greatly diminished but we will come out of it. Won't be easy.

Posted by: Eromero at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (XhWtx)

29 That's the worst limerick I have ever read....

;-)

---------

It's even worse as haiku.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (XVuno)

30 Math???

Posted by: Pete Seria at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (7ZQe3)

31 Huh. So an interesting wall of text from Muldoon, with nary a limerick in sight.

Expectations: subverted.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (9kgSk)

32 So disappointed.

Posted by: Man from Nantucket at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (mw1Wz)

33 Wait, Muldoon and Open Blogger are the same person? Like Clark Kent & Superman?

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (lntLM)

34 Read the content!

no puns

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (G546f)

35 Re comment #8:

Ooooh, he's just updated it with "The Full Model" -- a simulator with ALL the parameters, at the bottom of the page. Excellent! Recommended for everyone!

I think it's open code so it's possible toe even embed it here, if someone has the know-how.

https://www.meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/

Posted by: zombie at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (N9G0H)

36 It's going to be a while before I trust any numbers on the Plannedemic, the truth being the first casulalty and all.

Posted by: t-bird at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (EYsyU)

37 I had the flu a couple of years ago. I can understand how people die from it. I was really sick.

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:27 PM (

I had it at around 28 yrs old.


Holy shit, ya I get it.

Posted by: Ha at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (fNWtj)

38 Be leery of graphs:

----------

I hate graphs but I tolerate Venn diagrams.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:30 PM (XVuno)

39 When da fuck am I going to be able to get a haircut?

Seriously, I've had it UP TO HERE with the doom-mongers saying we have to have EVERYTHING shut down or else WERE ALL GOING TO DIE. Public officials are following an unproven and untested strategy pushed by a fucking think tank. We should be doing what we've always done, isolate the infected... give the public information on how they can protect themselves and their family. Prepare for the surge in patients. Thinking you could or should micromanage 330 million Americans in order to "flatten the curve" is the height of hubris.

Posted by: Serious Cat at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (zqs/f)

40 Checking back in

Posted by: FrodoB, because at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (dQF3z)

41 Yes, thank you, Muldoon!

Well stated.

My company asked for ideas to help the fed today. I offered up our Big Data researchers and statisticians. Help parse the data into meaningful information. Hope I get to work it.

Posted by: BifBewalski at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (VcFUs)

42 That's the worst limerick I have ever read....

Muldoon, have you checked your temperature recently?

Posted by: t-bird at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (EYsyU)

43 ALH!!!!!

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (Zz0t1)

44 great post btw
am tweeting
shocking lack of panic though

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (G546f)

45
If everyone get the virus
Then no one can deny us
That government money
It's sweet as honey
And can be used as TP in a crisus.

Posted by: freaked at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (Tnijr)

46 Hubs has a cold. No huggy kissy for him.

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (lntLM)

47 Willowed from last thread:

Just found out, Kathy Griffin has the CV apparently.

She's blasting PDT's response to the crisis, and also in the hospital with "unbelievably painful" symptoms.

Excuse me while I whip out the world's smallest violin...

Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (L2ZTs)

48 Be leery of graphs

Steffi Graf is OK though.

Posted by: zombie at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (N9G0H)

49 I had the flu early February, I took Tamiflu and it wasn't too bad. I got the flu about 5 years ago without Tamiflu...it was bad.

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 09:32 PM (UUBmN)

50 Friends of mine in relevant disciplines (med school faculty) seem to hold epidemiology in fairly low esteem.

Thoughts? Is that a more widely held viewpoint?
Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara
-------

I certainly have no idea, but when one is dealing with many variables, some of them unknowable, some of the known variables uncontrollable, then it is extremely difficult to build predictive models. See: Climate

Still, one has to try do what one can.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at March 25, 2020 09:32 PM (CDGwz)

51 In the middle of a major outbreak,
My wife, so gorgeous, did my breath take.

Posted by: Cicero Kaboom! Kid at March 25, 2020 09:32 PM (Vy7tf)

52 Does Tamilflu work on Covid-19?

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:33 PM (lntLM)

53 Thank you, Dr. Muldoon.

Posted by: Tobacco Road at March 25, 2020 09:33 PM (8prQo)

54 You no make rimmrick! You go now!

Posted by: Chinese Epidemiologist at March 25, 2020 09:33 PM (l3+k2)

55

Cliffs?

Posted by: Soothsayer, very senile at March 25, 2020 09:33 PM (un7FC)

56 But, it doesn't rhyme...
Thanks, noodlum

Posted by: FrodoB, because at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (dQF3z)

57 ALH, I believe Tamiflu is a vaccine, not a curative.

Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (L2ZTs)

58 Does Tamilflu work on Covid-19?
---
Apparently no.

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (UUBmN)

59 Does Tamilflu work on Covid-19?
Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:33 PM (lntLM)

--------

Better than fish tank cleaner.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (XVuno)

60 The best limericist that I've seen
Was bored while under quarantine
He put us some knowledge
From medical college
About that damn COVID19

Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (NWiLs)

61 So what was all the toilet paper for?....

Posted by: Hairyback Guy at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (Z+IKu)

62 Great briefing Herr Muldoon.
Thanxs!

Posted by: Diogenes at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (KY8WN)

63 Ace's review of "Outbreak" sucks, man.

Posted by: antisocial justice beatnik at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (DTX3h)

64 It's good to see that Italy may be over the hump
fingers crossed for them

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (G546f)

65
Be leery of graphs: Make sure you understand what is being graphed, what scale is being used and how stretched or compressed the depiction is. They can be visually deceptive and can add to your own uncertainty as you try to make sense of it all.


Now, THERE'S a rule that is scrupulously ignored in this place.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (pNxlR)

66 You'll never get a job at a major news network with analysis like this.

Posted by: jsg at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (/GUxN)

67 Just found out, Kathy Griffin has the CV apparently.

She's blasting PDT's response to the crisis, and also in the hospital with "unbelievably painful" symptoms.

Excuse me while I whip out the world's smallest violin...
Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:31 PM (L2ZTs)


Let me guess.

You didn't follow one fucking part of Trumps guidelines he implemented early on.

Cuunt.....karma's a bitch. I feel no pain for you.

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:35 PM (Zz0t1)

68 Tamiflu is a corse of anti-viral meds you take within 24-48 hours of getting the flu.

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 09:35 PM (UUBmN)

69 Very nice, Dr Muldoon.

Here it is in video form.

https://tinyurl.com/uclxl82

Posted by: JackStraw at March 25, 2020 09:35 PM (ZLI7S)

70 One thing I am kind of leery about with all the social distancing is that when that ends, the one enduring spark can flame up again. In this case, we now have to balance that with a possibility of an economic collapse. Would we have been better letting in run its course? I don't know, but considering its a 50/50 chance this was initially a bioweapon, it was a tough call.

I do think we are teetering on the edge of a time limit here economically.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at March 25, 2020 09:35 PM (r+sAi)

71 Thanks Doc! Great to hear some sanity.

"I recognize that data is imperfect, and temper my analysis with a willingness to reassess as new information comes to light."
Wild hunch, I'll bet you don't post on Twitter.

Posted by: Matthew Slater at March 25, 2020 09:35 PM (kk8TL)

72 Coronoavirus is not a flu virus

Posted by: ... at March 25, 2020 09:35 PM (uEbPt)

73 You'll never get a job at a major news network with analysis like this.
Posted by: jsg at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (/GUxN)

---------

It depends. Can he light his hair on fire?

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (XVuno)

74 61 So what was all the toilet paper for?....
Posted by: Hairyback Guy at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (Z+IKu)

Improvised face masks?

Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (NWiLs)

75 It's DOCTOR Muldoon!

Posted by: DOCTOR Amy Bishop! at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (l3+k2)

76 Poor Kathy Griffin. I think the best palliative is a subcranial bowie knife.

Posted by: Drink Like Vikings at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (v1P+X)

77 lin-duh, thanks for filling me in on that

Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (L2ZTs)

78 Tamiflu cost me $128 when I took it for the flu I had in 2018. Has the price gone down any?

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (lntLM)

79 Looong time lurker, very infrequent poster. Just want to say what a treasure the HQ is, how wonderful Ace's Place has been and, God willing, will continue to be, how much I appreciate the cobs, guest posters, and all the great commenters and comments. Y'all are the bestest imaginary internet friends a person could have.

Love ya.

Posted by: Moderate Salami at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (7DT6B)

80 Just found out, Kathy Griffin has the CV apparently.



By the looks of her, it is not the worst thing she ever had.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (zr5Kq)

81
For those who are mathematically inclined (we're talking differential equation level), the simple epidemic model is called the SIR equations.

Look that up if interested. These simple models aren't good enough for the real world, but they do you give you the basics of the behavior of an epidemic.

Here's the wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology

That's the elementary treatment.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM (rCwaK)

82 I like this Muldoon guy.

Wonder if he does any sort of poetry? Limericks? Haikus? That sorta thing. He's good with words.

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM (cF8AT)

83 Thanks for the analysis.

Posted by: GuyFromNH at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM (Gs5TH)

84 79 Looong time lurker, very infrequent poster. Just want to say what a treasure the HQ is, how wonderful Ace's Place has been and, God willing, will continue to be, how much I appreciate the cobs, guest posters, and all the great commenters and comments. Y'all are the bestest imaginary internet friends a person could have.

Love ya.
Posted by: Moderate Salami at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (7DT6B)

Damn glad to have you. Lurk less, comment more.

Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM (NWiLs)

85 Thanks, Muldoon. That was very level-headed and heartening.

Posted by: Gem at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM (65i3Q)

86 America will come out of this greatly diminished but we will come out of it. Won't be easy.

Posted by: Eromero at March 25, 2020 09:29 PM (XhWtx)



I'm feeling quite optimistic. Pissed off, but optimistic.

Posted by: Grump928(C) at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM (yQpMk)

87 Love ya.
Posted by: Moderate Salami at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (7DT6B)

Welcome to the party, pal!

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM (lntLM)

88 DLV, don't forget trepanation via DeWalt power drill outfitted with at least a one-inch-diameter bit...

Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (L2ZTs)

89 Thanks, Doc!
But..where's the eff'n limerick???

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (CjFDo)

90 Now, THERE'S a rule that is scrupulously ignored in this place.
Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (pNxlR)


Well, dead men tell no tails.

We've all been dead since net neutrality repeal, the tax cuts, or if you miraculously survived, Covid-19......

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (Zz0t1)

91 Tamiflu comes in a generic now. I think my co-pay was $5 or $10

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (UUBmN)

92 80 Just found out, Kathy Griffin has the CV apparently.

---------

She can cure it by getting someone to cut off her head.

Har har har

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (XVuno)

93 runner, KG gets fuglier in every pic I see of her.

Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (L2ZTs)

94 I'm glad you and your wife made it through the wildfire Mr. Doctor Muldoon.

Posted by: kallisto at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (3KcdH)

95
If you get the Wuhan flu
There's really nothing to do
But wait it on out
And there is no doubt
You'll find hope at the HQ

Posted by: freaked at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (Tnijr)

96 If the Left hadn't been sky-screaming at the top of their lungs about every Trump thought, action and fart from Day 1, their bullshit pleas that he is somehow responsible for the current pandemic might have actually cut some ice with people.

As it is, they vaccinated everyone against these potentially effective election year complaints long ago.

Ironic!!!

Posted by: ... at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (uEbPt)

97 Posted by: Moderate Salami at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (7DT6B)

Damn glad to have you. Lurk less, comment more.
Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM (NWiLs)


This.

You're not a troll. Feel free to step in and throw down any time.

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (Zz0t1)

98 Karma sure is a bitch huh Kathy?

Posted by: Smalls at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (FU4bw)

99 78 Tamiflu cost me $128 when I took it for the flu I had in 2018. Has the price gone down any?

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (lntLM)

I can get if for you wholesale.

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (cF8AT)

100 Wonder if he does any sort of poetry? Limericks? Haikus? That sorta thing. He's good with words.
Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM (cF8AT)

--------

Nope. Just a few crappie fish puns.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (XVuno)

101 By the looks of her, it is not the worst thing she ever had.
Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (zr5Kq)


She has the look of someone who drinks alot.

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (lntLM)

102 The best limericist that I've seen
Was bored while under quarantine
He put us some knowledge
From medical college
About that damn COVID19

Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (NWiLs)




Shut down the thread. Nobody will top this.

Posted by: Grump928(C) at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (yQpMk)

103
50 Friends of mine in relevant disciplines (med school faculty) seem to hold epidemiology in fairly low esteem.

Thoughts? Is that a more widely held viewpoint?
Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara


The Imperial College paper on projections for this outbreak and its scary, humpy lines was light on the specifics of the underlying models, IIRC. Rather like its climate change cousins.

"We cannot tell you the underlying mechanisms and models or we'd have to kill you - so you see it's really for your own good."

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (pNxlR)

104 Great read. I read the death data has been distorted/ padded up and down because that's what globals do.

What about the 2nd wave of infections like the It Came From Spain Flu.

Posted by: Humphreyrobot at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (4C4f2)

105 Chinee Lung Aids is a coronavirus. It's sorta like the flu, ain't it? Pneumonia being a complication?

I think I had it, near as I can tell from overseas mail parcel. Hard to say. Spent a week in bed. I mean really in bed. Serious chills and sweats, low grade fever. Still pretty weak. Hoping the other shoe doesn't drop and start gasping for air or heart palpitations.

Posted by: Common Tater at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (bG/5x)

106
Just found out, Kathy Griffin has the CV apparently.







By the looks of her, it is not the worst thing she ever had.

Posted by: runner
...............
you gotta wonder how much she paid to get infected.. it's all the rage these days in Hollywood!

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (CjFDo)

107 Didn't expect another thread this late

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (ZCEU2)

108 Love ya.

Posted by: Moderate Salami at March 25, 2020 09:36 PM (7DT6B)

A moderate??? Burn him!!!! Burn the witch!

Posted by: ... at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (uEbPt)

109 Thanks Muldoon

And kudos to Insom!

Posted by: Sleepy Joe Bribem at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (BiNEL)

110 I can get if for you wholesale.
Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (cF8AT)
+++++++++++++++
But can you remember it for me wholesale?

Posted by: Philip K.Dick at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (9kgSk)

111 Thanks, Muldoon. This is great.

Posted by: Caliban at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (QE8X6)

112 The graphic that you can trust is Ace's recent blue/yellow pie chart with the following legend:

blue: data that is too limited to allow real conclusions

yellow: data that is too limited to allow real conclusions but in yellow

Posted by: bear with asymmetrical balls at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (H5knJ)

113 you gotta wonder how much she paid to get infected.. it's all the rage these days in Hollywood!
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (CjFDo)


---------

TOM HANKS HAD IT!!!

*swooon*

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (XVuno)

114 107 Didn't expect another thread this late
Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (ZCEU2)

Our COB's have to do something while quarantined.

Posted by: ALH at March 25, 2020 09:41 PM (lntLM)

115 Nope. Just a few crappie fish puns.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (XVuno)

Don't you mean carpy?

Posted by: ... at March 25, 2020 09:41 PM (uEbPt)

116 But two comments in a row told me to look
Willowed but need help

Need someone to check my math here for real. From
http://covid19stats.global/state/
Roughly counting 47,000 cases, 700 deaths
%.014 ? Death rate
Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:41 PM (ZCEU2)

117 80 Just found out, Kathy Griffin has the CV apparently.

Damn. Poor CV.

Posted by: jsg at March 25, 2020 09:41 PM (/GUxN)

118 63 Ace's review of "Outbreak" sucks, man.
Posted by: antisocial justice beatnik at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (DTX3h)

The best part was when that Ebola monkey got shot in the ass with a tranq dart.

Posted by: Cicero Kaboom! Kid at March 25, 2020 09:41 PM (Vy7tf)

119 60 The best limericist that I've seen
Was bored while under quarantine
He put us some knowledge
From medical college
About that damn COVID19

Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:34 PM (NWiLs)

Ok, Muldoon...ya got some serious competition here.

Insom....can you do heart surgery?

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (cF8AT)

120 George Knapp interviewed a virologist who just wrote a book about contagion. He said this SARS virus will burn out in about 7-8 months like the last one did.

Posted by: kallisto at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (3KcdH)

121 What about the 2nd wave of infections like the It Came From Spain Flu.
Posted by: Humphreyrobot at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (4C4f2)
++++++++++++++
I think the plan is to have some kind of treatment regimen available by then - whether an evolution of the chloroquine+zithromax cocktail if it pans out or some other method.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (9kgSk)

122 Thank you, Muldoon. Nice to see you featured on the blog!

Posted by: Emmie at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (ouBhA)

123 I like this Muldoon guy.

Wonder if he does any sort of poetry? Limericks? Haikus? That sorta thing. He's good with words.
Posted by: Tami
--------

Pfft! Want the medical code for an ingrown toenail? Muldoon has it at his fingertips.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (CDGwz)

124 jsg, Kathy's vectors just put in a request for transfer to a less putrid host.

Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (L2ZTs)

125 There once was a Dr. Muldoon
Who told us the flu would end soon.

Aaah, fuck it.

Posted by: RI Red at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (p/KmR)

126 Hey not complaining, long threads get my tablet goofy

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (ZCEU2)

127 Ok, Muldoon...ya got some serious competition here.

Insom....can you do heart surgery?
Posted by: Tam
----
No, but he can get that speeding ticket expunged...

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 09:43 PM (UUBmN)

128 Thanks Muldoon!

Posted by: dartist at March 25, 2020 09:43 PM (K22Va)

129 Muldoon spares us not the gloom
While we're quarantined in our rooms.

With our Val-U-Rite fears and web site.

Posted by: torabora at March 25, 2020 09:43 PM (kpVe/)

130 121 What about the 2nd wave of infections like the It Came From Spain Flu.
Posted by: Humphreyrobot at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (4C4f2)
++++++++++++++
I think the plan is to have some kind of treatment regimen available by then - whether an evolution of the chloroquine+zithromax cocktail if it pans out or some other method.
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (9kgSk)


Oh I think God has His plans.
And us little imperfect mortals ought to stop thinking we are god.

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at March 25, 2020 09:43 PM (aA3+G)

131 But can you remember it for me wholesale?

Posted by: Philip K.Dick at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (9kgSk)

No, that's extra.

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:43 PM (cF8AT)

132 My profound thanks for this Muldoon.

May you and yours stay blessed.

Posted by: NaCly Dog at March 25, 2020 09:44 PM (u82oZ)

133 In 2009, there were so few SWINE flu cases that the CDC abruptly stopped counting them in July of that year. Uncovered by Sheryl Atkinson of CBS News by an FOI request. The story is on their website but never reported on the air. YET, in Oct of 09 they stated 22 million infections. Most all specimens analyzed were negative for ANY flu at all.

Posted by: Gofer at March 25, 2020 09:44 PM (0N53e)

134 DLV, don't forget trepanation via DeWalt power drill outfitted with at least a one-inch-diameter bit...

Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:38 PM (L2ZTs)


The professional trepanist prefers the Stanley 2 inch hole saw, also it is useful when installing new doorknobs!

Posted by: Sleepy Joe Bribem at March 25, 2020 09:44 PM (BiNEL)

135 Oh I think God has His plans.
And us little imperfect mortals ought to stop thinking we are god.

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian
----
AMEN!

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 09:44 PM (UUBmN)

136 %.014 ? Death rate
Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM


7000 out of 47000 is about 1.5%

Posted by: Emmie at March 25, 2020 09:44 PM (ouBhA)

137 Thanks doc, going to work in am to make sure we have bases covered and try to work from home.

Posted by: Infidel at March 25, 2020 09:44 PM (I664Y)

138 136. I mean 700.

Posted by: Emmie at March 25, 2020 09:45 PM (ouBhA)

139 127 Ok, Muldoon...ya got some serious competition here.

Insom....can you do heart surgery?
Posted by: Tam

(puts on smart glasses) I'm prepping to remove a chicken heart from a bag of giblets.

Posted by: Cicero Kaboom! Kid at March 25, 2020 09:45 PM (Vy7tf)

140 79 Looong time lurker, very infrequent poster. Just want to say what a treasure the HQ is, how wonderful Ace's Place has been and, God willing, will continue to be, how much I appreciate the cobs, guest posters, and all the great commenters and comments. Y'all are the bestest imaginary internet friends a person could have.

Love ya.
Posted by: Moderate Salami


I hereby anoint you as "33rd Level Comment Master" and hand you the Scepter of Ace.

I have no authority to do this imaginary thing, but you get the gist.

Posted by: zombie at March 25, 2020 09:45 PM (N9G0H)

141 No, but he can get that speeding ticket expunged...

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 09:43 PM (UUBmN)

Even better!

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:45 PM (cF8AT)

142 >> What about the 2nd wave of infections like the It Came From Spain Flu.

To see that, you have to go to more sophisticated models. You have to take into account the seasonal variation in transmission rates, and the mutation rate of the viruses.

When you do that, you're getting into chaotic non-linear dynamics, but you can squeeze out that the infection rate is periodic at twice the frequency of the seasonal variation. Ie, two waves per year.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 09:46 PM (rCwaK)

143 One thing I've learned, lurking and posting here.....

Don't trust the math......

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:46 PM (Zz0t1)

144

Okay, I read it.

And it reminded me of something I thought when that idiot Merkel so cavalierly stated that 80% of Germans will be infected. I wondered how she came up with that projection.

Projections are like anal apertures, I concluded.

Posted by: Soothsayer, very senile at March 25, 2020 09:46 PM (un7FC)

145 Shut down the thread. Nobody will top this.
Posted by: Grump928(C) at March 25, 2020 09:39 PM (yQpMk)

Bravo, Insom.

Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at March 25, 2020 09:46 PM (KnJdm)

146 I recognize that data is imperfect, and temper my analysis with a willingness to reassess as new information comes to light.

It is this willingness to reassess that marks a true open mind. Blinders are for horses.

Posted by: GnuBreed at March 25, 2020 09:46 PM (Z4rgH)

147 Insom....can you do heart surgery?
Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (cF8AT)

Willing to give it the old college try.

Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:47 PM (NWiLs)

148

Shut down the thread.




Now wait a second, I paid for the full hour.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:47 PM (zr5Kq)

149 Sponge thats why I ask

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:47 PM (ZCEU2)

150 Insom, that was some quality limericking.

Posted by: Emmie at March 25, 2020 09:47 PM (ouBhA)

151 Aw, shucks. Thanks!

Posted by: Insomniac - Ex Cineribus Resurgo at March 25, 2020 09:48 PM (NWiLs)

152 There once was a man with covid-19...

Naah it just doesn't work.

Posted by: Tom Servo at March 25, 2020 09:48 PM (V2Yro)

153

I'll bet my left nut kathy griffin does not have the chinese flu. No way.

Posted by: Soothsayer, very senile at March 25, 2020 09:48 PM (un7FC)

154 Muldoon's a retired doc? Oh lord, can you imagine being his patient?


Ms Johnson you say that you're itchy
You're feeling upset and quite twitchy
It makes hubby quite sad
and also your lad
but the truth is you're really just bitchy

Posted by: Weirddave at March 25, 2020 09:48 PM (qnb75)

155 Great post Muldoon!!

Posted by: Jewells45 at March 25, 2020 09:48 PM (dUJdY)

156 Need someone to check my math here for real. From
http://covid19stats.global/state/
Roughly counting 47,000 cases, 700 deaths
%.014 ? Death rate
Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:37 PM

1.4%

(deaths / total) * 100

but that's not the real rate

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:48 PM (G546f)

157 Hey doctor...what happens when you spend the night at The Holiday Inn?

Do you invent things.

Bet you heard that 30 years ago.

Posted by: Humphreyrobot at March 25, 2020 09:48 PM (4C4f2)

158 Now wait a second, I paid for the full hour.


No you didn't.

Posted by: Grump928(C) at March 25, 2020 09:48 PM (yQpMk)

159 131 But can you remember it for me wholesale?

Posted by: Philip K.Dick at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (9kgSk)

No, that's extra.
Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:43 PM (cF8AT)

Pusher.

Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at March 25, 2020 09:48 PM (KnJdm)

160
Now wait a second, I paid for the full hour.
Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:47 PM (zr5Kq)

---------


YOU GO NOW!!!

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:49 PM (XVuno)

161

I'd rather have Muldoon than House.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 09:49 PM (rCwaK)

162
Just found out, Kathy Griffin has the CV apparently.


Based on her say so??

Posted by: Soothsayer, very senile at March 25, 2020 09:49 PM (un7FC)

163 Oh I think God has His plans.
And us little imperfect mortals ought to stop thinking we are god.

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian
----
AMEN!

---

I second the motion. Amen, indeed!

Posted by: Pete Seria at March 25, 2020 09:49 PM (7ZQe3)

164 dr muldoon

Posted by: phoenixgirl at March 25, 2020 09:49 PM (0O7c5)

165 156 continued

because some of that total hasn't resolved yet (either died or recovered)

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:50 PM (G546f)

166 Just found out, Kathy Griffin has the CV apparently.





The only time a virus is probably trying its damnedest to escape a host

Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 25, 2020 09:50 PM (xnQAp)

167 Muldoon, Thanks for this. It was more informative and helpful than anything I've heard on radio or seen on TV. An isle of reality in a sea of guesswork, emotional panic and contradiction.

Posted by: JTB at March 25, 2020 09:50 PM (7EjX1)

168 No you didn't.



Trust me.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:50 PM (zr5Kq)

169 WD did some sneaky cob comment editing

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:50 PM (G546f)

170 161

I'd rather have Muldoon than House.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 09:49 PM (rCwaK)

It turns out that it is lupus.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at March 25, 2020 09:51 PM (j3npP)

171 I'd rather have Muldoon than House.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 09:49 PM (rCwaK)


But just suppose it really is NOT Lupus...

Posted by: Commissar Hrothgar at March 25, 2020 09:51 PM (BiNEL)

172 Oh I think God has His plans.
And us little imperfect mortals ought to stop thinking we are god.

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian
----


Been sayin that for a long damn time.....

Well said, sir. Well said.

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:51 PM (Zz0t1)

173 Totals I don't see on that link so was just roughly adding cases rounding to 1,000s, added deaths earlier and wasn't up to 700 but might be by now.

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:51 PM (ZCEU2)

174 Hey doctor...what happens when you spend the night at The Holiday Inn?





You get to hear Bing Crosby sing

Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 25, 2020 09:51 PM (xnQAp)

175 170

Horde mind in action is rather scary...

Posted by: Commissar Hrothgar at March 25, 2020 09:52 PM (BiNEL)

176 There's also a story online that AOC wants to force every Congressperson to return to DC to vote on the stimulus package, in person.

Let her do it. She'll make herself the most unpopular person on the Hill.

Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:52 PM (L2ZTs)

177 Thank you, Doc. Appreciate the wisdom.

Posted by: turambar at March 25, 2020 09:52 PM (Gylu/)

178 #163 And all God's children said AMEN.

Posted by: lizabth at March 25, 2020 09:52 PM (L3Rsz)

179 The only time a virus is probably trying its damnedest to escape a host
Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 25, 2020 09:50 PM (xnQAp)


--------

Nothing to eat there except bone, cartilage and crystal meth.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 09:52 PM (XVuno)

180 can someone explain "herd immunity" - I don't understand it

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:52 PM (G546f)

181 TQM, exactly.

Sooth, good point. At this stage I wouldn't be surprised if Kathy's tapeworm just wants out.

Posted by: qdpsteve at March 25, 2020 09:52 PM (L2ZTs)

182 Okay at five guys and the the chairs stacked to the side upside down actually say made in USA.,

Posted by: JEM at March 25, 2020 09:52 PM (jEV5Y)

183 166 Just found out, Kathy Griffin has the CV apparently.





The only time a virus is probably trying its damnedest to escape a host
Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 25, 2020 09:50 PM (xnQAp)

Slap hot iron to The Thing.

Posted by: Kurt Russel at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (Vy7tf)

184 It was apparent to me from the beginning that you cannot stop this.
19,000 people per day were coming in from China on flights during January and until Trump shut them down. The virus started in China in December.. (I LOVE the way Trump says China!) maybe earlier.
While I believe individuals can shelter in place from it, we could not ever stop the spread generally.. it's gonna happen.. people are too social.. need groceries.. went to work before this even got on the news.
In addition.. Even if everyone shelters.. there's always an asshole who gets it and ignores quarantine and spreads it.. The WHOLE process starts anew.. This could go on for months and months.
The dead nursing home folks are red herrings.. outliers.. They were always gonna die from this as soon as some idiot with the virus visited grandma.. (knowingly or not)
Let's let it run its course.. if you are vulnerable, shelter.. quarantine.. otherwise let this thing fly..
And 2 Trillion $$ in aid is absolutely stupid. Just make it easier to collect unemployment insurance.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (CjFDo)

185 105. My friend is a rheumatologist. She described to me in gory detail what SARS CoV-2 does to the lungs. She also told me the viral load on a test swab is 10 times that of the flu. I now wear a mask when I go out.

Posted by: kallisto at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (3KcdH)

186 So you're saying I SHOULD eat the fishtank cleaner?

Posted by: Alcoholic Asshole Shut In at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (JpC1C)

187 Very good post. Good moment of sanity. Probably the best take away is "Be cautious but be reasonable."

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (l9m7l)

188 Thanks for this injection of a bit of sanity, Muldoon!

Posted by: Zettai Roshia-no Asetto at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (7WaWV)

189 One of the big unanswered questions is: do you have immunity to it after you've had it. One of the medical folks I follow on Twitter may have it. She's been trying to find an answer to this question and still doesn't know.

Posted by: notsothoreau at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (JKNZq)

190 180 Wait for it.

Posted by: EdmundBurkesShade at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (gSgAd)

191 Thanks, Muldoon. Great read.

Posted by: grognard at March 25, 2020 09:54 PM (sb+Cg)

192 WD did some sneaky cob comment editing

*shrug* COB privilege. If I forget to turn off one of my ad block extensions before commenting it screws up formatting.

Posted by: Weirddave at March 25, 2020 09:54 PM (4rW0X)

193 Good read. I know these things burnout. Just prefer not to be part of the inferno.

Posted by: BluesFish at March 25, 2020 09:54 PM (WQZ1O)

194
Okay, using this data, play along with me...
All US plus Territories
418,810 tested
63,675 tested positive (roughly 15%)
6,136 hospitalized (1%)
887 deaths (1.4% of those who tested positive, but .2% of those tested).

The number of positives is about what we lose to flu in a "bad" flu year.
Remind me again why the world is shut down?

Posted by: MarkY at March 25, 2020 09:55 PM (k4aQF)

195 So you're saying I SHOULD eat the fishtank cleaner?
Posted by: Alcoholic Asshole Shut In at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (JpC1C)



It IS a free country......

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:55 PM (Zz0t1)

196 Thanks Doc Muldoon. Any rational discourse these days is welcome. Sorry for your fire loss, that had to be a real kick in the nuts.

Still trying to figure out what America is going to look like when we get on the other/better side of this. More telecommuting? Many companies will have no excuse now if it's working for them. Less restaurants at least in the short term. Tele-medicine? Might be a good thing. Some people are going to social distance their asses off for quite a while longer than when the grand re-opening of America occurs. Large gatherings for sports - when will many feel comfortable again?

We are generally an optimistic and positive country, with a sense of life that seeks to solve problems and build for the future, so we will be alright. Not sure about some other countries though....

Posted by: CoolHandLuke at March 25, 2020 09:55 PM (U2+zT)

197
oops
THIS data
https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

Posted by: MarkY at March 25, 2020 09:55 PM (k4aQF)

198 At the press conference 2 days ago the death rate was quoted as around 0.7-0.8%. Higher than typical seasonal flu, but far less than the > 3 number that was banded about early on.

Posted by: Aviator at March 25, 2020 09:55 PM (2cuLk)

199 185 glad you are wearing a mask kallisto, specially if you are in one of the susceptible populations

I don't know if I am
I wear gloves but not a mask

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:56 PM (G546f)

200 Basically if most of the herd is immune (have antibodies) they are less likely to pass it along to those not - immune.

2 ways to increase this - lots of people got it and recovered or lots of people got a vaccine.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at March 25, 2020 09:56 PM (r+sAi)

201 I think I had it, near as I can tell from overseas mail parcel. Hard to say. Spent a week in bed. I mean really in bed. Serious chills and sweats, low grade fever. Still pretty weak. Hoping the other shoe doesn't drop and start gasping for air or heart palpitations.
Posted by: Common Tater at March 25, 2020 09:40 PM (bG/5x)

how about getting a test

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:56 PM (zr5Kq)

202 180 can someone explain "herd immunity" - I don't understand it
Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:52 PM (G546f)

Not an expert explanation, but by way of comparison to C19, seasonal flu, with presumed 50% percent of the herd immune, spreads at a much slower and controllable rate, than C19 with no herd immunity.

Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at March 25, 2020 09:56 PM (KnJdm)

203 The only time a virus is probably trying its damnedest to escape a host
Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 25, 2020 09:50 PM (xnQAp)


Savage. I heard it in Rodney Dangerfield's voice.

Posted by: grognard at March 25, 2020 09:56 PM (sb+Cg)

204 My friend is a rheumatologist. She described to me
in gory detail what SARS CoV-2 does to the lungs. She also told me the
viral load on a test swab is 10 times that of the flu. I now wear a mask
when I go out.

Posted by: kallisto at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (3KcdH)


I wear a mask too. Makes it tougher for the bank tellers to ID me to the cops

Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 25, 2020 09:56 PM (xnQAp)

205 Dr. Birx said today that those apocalyptic models were garbage, based on faulty assumptions, worse-than-worse case scenarios and static responses.

Posted by: The Gipper Lives at March 25, 2020 09:56 PM (Ndje9)

206 Insom....can you do heart surgery?

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (cF8AT)



Willing to give it the old college try.

Posted by: Insomniac
..............
^suspiciously eyes Insom's rusty pocket knife..^

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 25, 2020 09:57 PM (CjFDo)

207 Now wait a second, I paid for the full hour.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:47 PM (zr5Kq)

I've been there, my man. Wait a minute nevermind.

Posted by: ... at March 25, 2020 09:57 PM (uEbPt)

208 I have a question for Muldoon, if he is reading. Can you test to see if you had it ? COVID 19 ?

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:57 PM (zr5Kq)

209 >> can someone explain "herd immunity" - I don't understand it

Based on parameters of the disease/infection it turns out there is threshold in terms of the percentage of the population who are immune by previous infection or vaccination above which an epidemic will not take off.

The spread of disease involves mixing of the population, and when enough people are immune, the disease cannot spread.

In terms of the math, what you want to do is drive the effective R0 to less than 1. This means that if you introduce one person with the disease into the population, the infection curve will die not, not increase.

From current estimates, that threshold would be about 65% for WuFlu.

Vaccination is the way to quickly induce herd immunity into a population.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 09:57 PM (rCwaK)

210 A local hospital VP and "chief nursing offier" said, "We know that approximately 80% that get this are asymptomatic, without symptoms." I'm not sure where that information is coming from, or how that can be known for sure? Especially with testing being limited to those showing symptoms.

Posted by: AF at March 25, 2020 09:58 PM (RsPQq)

211 Is there more than one strain? 2? 4?

If you get it, does it confer immunity if recovered. Can one become re-infected?

Or, if I have the flu right now, can I get the chicom flu on top of that, additionally? Lots of questions and nobody seems to know.

Posted by: Common Tater at March 25, 2020 09:58 PM (bG/5x)

212 Dr Brix?

Posted by: Kim Jong ill at March 25, 2020 09:58 PM (l3+k2)

213 Flow My Tears The Policeman Said.

Posted by: Humphreyrobot at March 25, 2020 09:58 PM (4C4f2)

214 Is this the new normal every flu season, while TDS is taking place?
Of course a Democrat and its a non issue.

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 09:58 PM (ZCEU2)

215 The number of positives is about what we lose to flu in a "bad" flu year.
Remind me again why the world is shut down?

Posted by: MarkY at March 25, 2020 09:55 PM (k4aQF)

don't make me retype my plumbing analogy

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 09:58 PM (G546f)

216
The number of positives is about what we lose to flu in a "bad" flu year.
Remind me again why the world is shut down?

Posted by: MarkY at March 25, 2020 09:55 PM (k4aQF)


More contagious. Effects people differently. Kills the elderly.

World shouldn't shut down, but, steps should be taken.

Oh, and in case anyone forgot:'

https://youtu.be/L3tnH4FGbd0

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 09:59 PM (Zz0t1)

217 Moderate Salami @ 79- I knew these imaginary friends a long time and then met a passle of them in person. I can attest they are real and just as entertaining in real like as cyber life. GOD help me I love em.

Posted by: Eromero at March 25, 2020 09:59 PM (XhWtx)

218 Forest fires? You know who else tried to set our forest on fire back in 1945?

Posted by: Rex B at March 25, 2020 09:59 PM (707QJ)

219 "The outbreak spread like wildfire" was a very good turn of phrase.

Posted by: Splunge at March 25, 2020 09:59 PM (dOV9E)

220 Insom....can you do heart surgery?
Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 09:42 PM (cF8AT)
Willing to give it the old college try.
Posted by: Insomniac
..............
^suspiciously eyes Insom's rusty pocket knife..^
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 25, 2020 09:57 PM (CjFDo)


Nah, Insom is a consummate professional and only uses CornPop approved straight razors!

Posted by: Commissar Hrothgar at March 25, 2020 09:59 PM (BiNEL)

221 >> But just suppose it really is NOT Lupus...

It's not, it's rheumatoid arthritis.

Which reminds me. My PT has gone well. My new knee's range of motion is no 0 - 125 degrees. I can straighten my leg completely now. One month of PT.

They said it's a damn good outcome.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 09:59 PM (rCwaK)

222 For all the media hysteria, the incidence of COVID-19 worldwide is actually very low.

Posted by: Caliban at March 25, 2020 10:00 PM (QE8X6)

223 >>publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 09:57 PM

Once you understand the math behind it, even on conceptual level, it really helps explain the meaning behind the daily numbers.

Posted by: JackStraw at March 25, 2020 10:00 PM (ZLI7S)

224 Herd immunity is what happens when you have imperfect immunity in the individuals making up a population. It can be that a large majority of individuals are immune, and only a minority susceptible, or it can be that every individual has a markedly decreased chance of catching the disease, even if that chance is not zero. In either situation, the pathogen may be able to infect one or a few individuals, but because the population is generally immune, you don't get an outbreak (IOW, the probability of successful subsequent transmission is low).

Posted by: Alcoholic Asshole Shut In at March 25, 2020 10:00 PM (JpC1C)

225 the incidence of COVID-19 worldwide is actually very low.




don't make me angry.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:00 PM (zr5Kq)

226 my 80yo mom said she watches and appreciates president trump's updates, because he is calm, reassuring and talks so people can understand him.

this post reminds me of her saying that, well done for the sensible information presented without hair on fire, doc muldoon.

Posted by: blackdogs at March 25, 2020 10:00 PM (NAbCm)

227 Eromero,
Love you and the Mrs too!

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 10:00 PM (UUBmN)

228 While I believe individuals can shelter in place from it, we could not ever stop the spread generally.. it's gonna happen.. people are too social.. need groceries.. went to work before this even got on the news.
In addition.. Even if everyone shelters.. there's always an asshole who gets it and ignores quarantine and spreads it.. The WHOLE process starts anew.. This could go on for months and months.
The dead nursing home folks are red herrings.. outliers.. They were always gonna die from this as soon as some idiot with the virus visited grandma.. (knowingly or not)
Let's let it run its course.. if you are vulnerable, shelter.. quarantine.. otherwise let this thing fly..
And 2 Trillion $$ in aid is absolutely stupid. Just make it easier to collect unemployment insurance.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 25, 2020 09:53 PM (CjFDo)

Yup. Really discouraged that the idea of simply giving people information on who is at risk and how to protect yourself is discarded with this draconian "ALL MUST ISOLATE, NOW" plan. I feel like I'm on house arrest.

Posted by: Serious Cat at March 25, 2020 10:00 PM (zqs/f)

229 The main reason for herd immunity of say measles, is we had it when we were kids, but our kids didn't have to get it because of a vaccine. And the anti-vaxers kids are less likely to get it too.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at March 25, 2020 10:01 PM (r+sAi)

230 Thank you for this, Dr. Muldoon.

Dammit, the Horde is best place ever.

Posted by: Tom Meagher at March 25, 2020 10:01 PM (x8Wzq)

231 It's like people don't listen to daily briefings.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:01 PM (zr5Kq)

232 Dr. Limerick. Cool!!!

Posted by: Girl from the South at March 25, 2020 10:01 PM (LIhNq)

233 don't make me angry.
Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:00 PM (zr5Kq)

Please explain.

Posted by: Caliban at March 25, 2020 10:01 PM (QE8X6)

234 >>A local hospital VP and "chief nursing offier" said, "We know that approximately 80% that get this are asymptomatic, without symptoms." I'm not sure where that information is coming from, or how that can be known for sure? Especially with testing being limited to those showing symptoms.
Posted by: AF

We don't know this for sure

Posted by: Aviator at March 25, 2020 10:01 PM (2cuLk)

235 Does Gwyneth Paltrow have her own code yet? What about Goop magazine?

Posted by: it begins... at March 25, 2020 10:02 PM (MRjKr)

236 Thanks for the kind words y'all. We now return you to your regularly scheduled limericks.


There once was a barmaid named Mona
Who worked at a club in Sedona
She went up the stair
To see what was there
And came down with a case of Corona

Posted by: Muldoon at March 25, 2020 10:02 PM (m45I2)

237 P.S. - CBD made me do it!

Posted by: Muldoon at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (m45I2)

238 And

The Unteleported Man

( one way space travel has terrible drawbacks... oh and don't be a media sucker.)

Posted by: Humphreyrobot at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (4C4f2)

239 if you get it and survive, you'll be immune
(although if you just recovered and overdo it, you could relapse)

but if it mutates, you might not be immune to the mutation
also, based on the original sars, if you got it bad and survived, you might have lung damage

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (G546f)

240 205 Dr. Birx said today that those apocalyptic models were garbage, based on faulty assumptions, worse-than-worse case scenarios and static responses.

Posted by: The Gipper Lives at March 25, 2020 09:56 PM (Ndje9)


She was polite and professional in manner she said Fauci was BS.

Posted by: Braenyard at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (Sod+H)

241 Can you test to see if you had it ? COVID 19 ?
Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:57 PM (zr5Kq)
---

Instapundit linked to an article yesterday that said an antibody test has been developed.

Posted by: AF at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (RsPQq)

242 She ain't no blond either.

Posted by: dartist at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (K22Va)

243
Italy, supposedly the WORST EVER, has had more people over the age of 90 die, than under the age of 60.
I repeat, show me the bodies stacked like cordwood.
I'm tired of trying to talk people off the ledge.
I'm gonna go decide what to buy tomorrow.
Have fun.

Posted by: MarkY at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (k4aQF)

244 We have Muldoon and aviator here! Wow! I feel really inadequate now.

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (UUBmN)

245 The number of positives is about what we lose to flu in a "bad" flu year.
Remind me again why the world is shut down?

--

Because you deplorables had the temerity to reject our advances, and we wanted you to have a practical lesson of what we can do the next time you consider being selfish and not letting us do what's best for you.

The last three years of what you've built? Poof. Why? Because we wanted to, that's why.

If you know what's good for you you'll remember this lesson.

Posted by: Democrats and Media at March 25, 2020 10:04 PM (nsE7Q)

246
Measles has an insanely high R0, of around 10 or so. This makes the herd immunity threshold very high, (90%, maybe greater, you can look it up).

So antivaxxers reduce the number of vaccinated below that threshold, and boom, you get an outbreak of measles.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 10:04 PM (rCwaK)

247 I said enough this afternoon, so I'll lay off, other than to say I support Trumps plan to deal with this wholeheartedly, and $2 Trillion may just be the minimum down payment needed to deal with the economic damage we're doing to ourselves. But it's an absolutely vital start.

Posted by: Tom Servo at March 25, 2020 10:04 PM (V2Yro)

248 They said it's a damn good outcome.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 09:59 PM (rCwaK)


It is indeed, but from my experience, don't quit the rehab prematurely, even if you think your normal activities are pretty rigorous!

Posted by: Commissar Hrothgar at March 25, 2020 10:04 PM (BiNEL)

249 don't make me angry.
Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:00 PM (zr5Kq)

You the Hulk or something?

Posted by: Tom Meagher at March 25, 2020 10:04 PM (x8Wzq)

250 When I see Lew Alcindor out in the street shouting 'Bring out your dead!' then I'll worry, and I'll be sure to say 'I was dead but I got better.'

Posted by: Eromero at March 25, 2020 10:04 PM (XhWtx)

251 One thing I know for certain that spreads like wildfire and that is . . . PANIC!

Posted by: RickZ at March 25, 2020 10:04 PM (Y8PSl)

252
Here's my bad version:

Herd Immunity is when, for example, 50 out of 100 cows are inoculated.

Since 50% are immunized, the remaining 50% have lower chance of getting the disease.

Looking at my very old notes from class, I wrote "herd immunity: 1-1/Ro...transmission more difficult if many in population are immune. Vaccination Strategy."

Posted by: Soothsayer, very senile at March 25, 2020 10:04 PM (un7FC)

253 I look forward to doing this every year.

Posted by: Moron Robbie - Americans have gone bat soup crazy at March 25, 2020 10:05 PM (nsE7Q)

254 >>> I like this Muldoon guy.

Wonder if he does any sort of poetry? Limericks? Haikus? That sorta thing. He's good with words.
Posted by: Tami

Yeah, cause if he is, he should probably write a book or somethin'.

Posted by: 6-4-3 Turn Two at March 25, 2020 10:05 PM (+FPkr)

255 Please explain.
Posted by: Caliban at March 25, 2020 10:01 PM (QE8X6)

It is high.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:05 PM (zr5Kq)

256

Ya'll owe me another keyboard. A guy can only *spew* on one so many times and then it's gonna quit.

Posted by: Aka: Sticky Fingers at March 25, 2020 10:06 PM (5prN7)

257 253 I look forward to doing this every year.
Posted by: Moron Robbie - Americans have gone bat soup crazy at March 25, 2020 10:05 PM (nsE7Q)

--------

Just wait til Ebola season gets here. Well have a ball!

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 10:06 PM (XVuno)

258 You the Hulk or something?



Or something.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:06 PM (zr5Kq)

259 There once was a barmaid named Mona
Who worked at a club in Sedona
She went up the stair
To see what was there
And came down with a case of Corona
Posted by: Muldoon at March 25, 2020 10:02 PM (m45I2)

You magnificent bastard!

I read your poat!

Posted by: Tom Meagher at March 25, 2020 10:06 PM (x8Wzq)

260 Where is the Zappa?

Posted by: davidt at March 25, 2020 10:06 PM (l3+k2)

261 Measles has an insanely high R0, of around 10 or so.
This makes the herd immunity threshold very high, (90%, maybe greater,
you can look it up).



So antivaxxers reduce the number of vaccinated below that threshold, and boom, you get an outbreak of measles.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 10:04 PM (rCwaK

The rational solution is to shoot the antivaxxers in the head, before they spread.

Posted by: Alcoholic Asshole Shut In at March 25, 2020 10:06 PM (JpC1C)

262 How long will TP last if I freeze it.

Asking for a friend.

Posted by: Goatweed at March 25, 2020 10:06 PM (iR3Gu)

263 >>Here's my bad version:

>>Herd Immunity is when, for example, 50 out of 100 cows are inoculated.

>>Since 50% are immunized, the remaining 50% have lower chance of getting the disease.

And what do you do when you don't have a vaccine? You keep the subject apart.

Social distancing.

Posted by: JackStraw at March 25, 2020 10:07 PM (ZLI7S)

264 We have known a long time about Muldoon, bet he was a great doc , but I still think he missed his calling writing jingles for commercials.

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 10:07 PM (ZCEU2)

265
Instapundit linked to an article yesterday that said an antibody test has been developed.
Posted by: AF at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (RsPQq)


All right.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:07 PM (zr5Kq)

266 Much like a wildfire and hopefully like a Covid 19, this thread has burned out.......

Posted by: CoolHandLuke at March 25, 2020 10:07 PM (U2+zT)

267 Thanks for the kind words y'all. We now return you to your regularly scheduled limericks.





There once was a barmaid named Mona

Who worked at a club in Sedona

She went up the stair

To see what was there

And came down with a case of Corona

Posted by: Muldoon

.............
Stands in the aisle.. Bravo, Maestro! Bravo!!

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 25, 2020 10:07 PM (CjFDo)

268 ok thanks for the explanations of herd immunity
it's like Go or Reversi

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 10:07 PM (G546f)

269 The Democrats didn't shut down the world, as much as they'd like to.

Something spooked the leaders.
Was the Chinese mortality higher than to the usual flu?
Did Xi and the World Health Organization pull a hoax?

What was it that triggered all world leaders, even Putin, this time?

Posted by: Braenyard at March 25, 2020 10:07 PM (Sod+H)

270
While looking at my old notes, it appears that I once knew how to calculate Ro.

Says here Ro=B(k)D

B: risk of transmission per contact
k: number of contacts that an avg person normally has (per time unit)
D: duration

Posted by: Soothsayer, very senile at March 25, 2020 10:08 PM (un7FC)

271 I saw an antivaxxer meme...
So now you're following CDC recommendations... they also recommend you vaccinate your kids.

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 10:08 PM (UUBmN)

272 Social distancing, plus some kind of quarantine. under those conditions it "runs out of places to spread".

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:08 PM (zr5Kq)

273 Does Gwyneth Paltrow have her own code yet? What about Goop magazine?

Posted by: it begins... at March 25, 2020 10:02 PM (MRjKr)


Look at Goop like a tax on stupid.

Posted by: GnuBreed at March 25, 2020 10:09 PM (Z4rgH)

274
To see the herd immunity threshold, look at the SIR model, and the equation for I.

If R0 > 1, the initial phase (when I is very small relative to the population), you'll see I(t) is initially an exponential.

Now, for heard immunity, you want to drive that intial exponential rate negative. The initial infection curve becomes a *decaying* exponential, not an increasing positive one.

So, drop an infected person (say an illegal with some third-world disease) into a local population, he doesn't start an outbreak.

In the real world, he might infect some, but it dies out quickly and doesn't become an outbreak.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 10:10 PM (rCwaK)

275 There once was a kid from Nantucket.
When it came to Spring Break, he said Fuck It.
He hung with his crew,
Ignored the Wuhan flu,
Now his lungs are like holes in a bucket.

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 10:10 PM (Zz0t1)

276 P.S. - CBD made me do it!
Posted by: Muldoon at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (m45I2)

did he threaten you with a naked guy on a white ottoman ?

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:10 PM (zr5Kq)

277 Socialist distancing.

Posted by: getting the banned to bumrush the bumwipe aisle at March 25, 2020 10:10 PM (8dulj)

278 SG should shave that white patch off the top of his head.

Posted by: dartist at March 25, 2020 10:10 PM (K22Va)

279 I don't have a kid in this fight but do agree with Michelle Malkin about waiting until the baby is at least 6 months old.

Posted by: Braenyard at March 25, 2020 10:10 PM (Sod+H)

280
R?
Well, R above 1 means Spreading
R less than 1 means dying out.

Posted by: Soothsayer, very senile at March 25, 2020 10:10 PM (un7FC)

281 "Where is the Zappa?
Posted by: davidt "


Out through the night
An the whisperin breezes
To the place where they keep
The imaginary diseases

Posted by: Guy who relates everything to a Zappa song at March 25, 2020 10:11 PM (Tnijr)

282 I see the CO Courts haven't updated anything. DL's don't wait.

Posted by: Infidel at March 25, 2020 10:11 PM (I664Y)

283 241 Can you test to see if you had it ? COVID 19 ?
Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 09:57 PM (zr5Kq)
---

Instapundit linked to an article yesterday that said an antibody test has been developed.
Posted by: AF at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (RsPQq)

-------------------------------

He linked to an article this evening saying Britain was going to be releasing a finger prick test soon (within days) that will test for the antibodies.

Posted by: No One of Consequence at March 25, 2020 10:11 PM (CAJOC)

284 Posted by: MarkY at March 25, 2020 10:03 PM (k4aQF)

I haven't seen an attempt to estimate the CV19 deaths by age cohort compared to a "normal" death rate by age and an age cohort in a "normal" flu season. But since I don't trust any numbers published by any government that wants to control my life, I quit looking!

Posted by: Commissar Hrothgar at March 25, 2020 10:11 PM (BiNEL)

285 >>>It is high.
Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:05 PM (zr5Kq)

Italy: 74,386/60,480,000
China: 81,285/1,386,000,000
USA: 66,047/327,200,000

Not high.

Posted by: Caliban at March 25, 2020 10:11 PM (QE8X6)

286 Thanks Vmom

Posted by: Common Tater at March 25, 2020 10:11 PM (bG/5x)

287 an antibody test would be the best thing ever

Posted by: vmom 2020 at March 25, 2020 10:12 PM (G546f)

288
How many books in that library (I guess, his), do you think Ol' Puddin' Head has read? Besides the coloring books, that is.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at March 25, 2020 10:12 PM (pNxlR)

289 I didn't know Hans Brix had a wife but I find her quite charming for being as old ans my mom and quite intelligent.

Posted by: DBCooper at March 25, 2020 10:12 PM (bttOm)

290
Italy: 74,386/60,480,000
China: 81,285/1,386,000,000
USA: 66,047/327,200,000

Not high.

Posted by: Caliban at March 25, 2020 10:11 PM (QE8X6)


WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 10:12 PM (Zz0t1)

291 Socialist distancing.




That's the one without TP.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:12 PM (zr5Kq)

292 Begun, the COVID Statistics Wars have.

Posted by: Yoda at March 25, 2020 10:12 PM (XVuno)

293
Out through the night
An the whisperin breezes
To the place where they keep
The imaginary diseases
Posted by: Guy who relates everything to a Zappa song at March 25, 2020 10:11 PM (Tnijr)


Barf out.
Gag me with a spoon.

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 10:12 PM (Zz0t1)

294 How many books in that library (I guess, his), do you think Ol' Puddin' Head has read? Besides the coloring books, that is.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at March 25, 2020 10:12 PM (pNxlR)


That's not his library. If you look closely, he's in front of a green screen. He's also wearing blue, which is another 'green screen' giveaway.

Posted by: RickZ at March 25, 2020 10:13 PM (Y8PSl)

295 Muldoon, I don't get how you can say such things, when we have those 27 year old journalists on cable 24/7 telling us how long we have to sit this out. Because they are talking to actual medical experts and such.

Heck, they're even on TV. You aren't.

If we need to take a poll, we can.

Posted by: LeftCoast Dawg at March 25, 2020 10:13 PM (sy5kK)

296
Another way to calculate Ro is BxCxD.

B: p of infectious contact (p is Risk) This is the "transporter," btw.
C: rate of acquisition, or number of new cases.
D: duration

As Muldoon says above, C is not linear! C is curved exponentially.

Posted by: Soothsayer, very senile at March 25, 2020 10:14 PM (un7FC)

297 I just got my gas bill... $40. That's outrageous!!!

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 10:14 PM (UUBmN)

298 I've undergone a daily treatment with an elixir made from water, barley and hops. Haven't been sick yet, so it must be working!

Posted by: Equirhodont at March 25, 2020 10:15 PM (+2GwM)

299 I just got my gas bill... $40. That's outrageous!!!

Especially when you don't have gas service!!!

Posted by: Panhandler at March 25, 2020 10:15 PM (S/rwf)

300 269 - They wanted it to be bad, purposely crashing the economy is their last playing card after 3 years of failure.

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 10:16 PM (ZCEU2)

301 Well, that was interesting. Thanks, Muldoon.

Posted by: Donna&&&&&&V at March 25, 2020 10:16 PM (d6Ksn)

302 Italy: 74,386/60,480,000
China: 81,285/1,386,000,000
USA: 66,047/327,200,000

Not high.

Posted by: Caliban a

what are you ? a nazi ?

Italy has close to 7K dead. For no reason other than getting the Chicom rot.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:16 PM (zr5Kq)

303 Timmy Walz, our Dem governor put the state on lock down today. Fortunately agriculture is considered "essential." It's almost time to dig holes and put some seeds in the ground. There's going to be a fight from the Dem governors when Trump opens us up for business again.

Posted by: Fra Filippo at March 25, 2020 10:16 PM (7MUvN)

304 Commissar Hrothgar @ 284--Age cohort? WTF? You mean there's already something inherently dangerous about turning 71? Even without the chinee bat flu? That's a real concern.

Posted by: Eromero at March 25, 2020 10:16 PM (XhWtx)

305 Another way to calculate Ro is BxCxD.

B: p of infectious contact (p is Risk) This is the "transporter," btw.
C: rate of acquisition, or number of new cases.
D: duration

As Muldoon says above, C is not linear! C is curved exponentially.


**Love it when you talk dirty!**

Posted by: shep! at March 25, 2020 10:17 PM (8dulj)

306 it will be scary to watch what happens in Berkshire county MA over the next few days

two weeks ago we had a few, a week ago 17, yesterday, 37 and now 75

the NYC weekenders have arrived the last 10 days and they are NOT self quarantining

I know, shocker

I'm not going out again, even if it's 3 or 4 months

I'm just hoping it doesn't explode up her, we aren't ready for something like this

Posted by: REDACTED at March 25, 2020 10:17 PM (rpxSz)

307 did he threaten you with a naked guy on a white ottoman ?

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:10 PM (zr5Kq)

You didn't know?

Muldoon was the model for that painting!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at March 25, 2020 10:17 PM (dLLD6)

308 In the coming days you will see the unemployment numbers front and center I bet.
And we have to be in the millions more in the last week.

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 10:18 PM (ZCEU2)

309 You mean there's already something inherently dangerous about turning 71?

Bur euro, you're only "29" right?

Posted by: Panhandler at March 25, 2020 10:18 PM (S/rwf)

310 297 I just got my gas bill... $40. That's outrageous!!!
Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 10:14 PM (UUBmN)

-----------------------------

That *is* a lot of Taco Bell...

Posted by: No One of Consequence at March 25, 2020 10:18 PM (CAJOC)

311 A Muldoon guest post, AND the ONT is delayed. I'm beginning to suspect a Cob-O-List, where these sort of things are pre-arranged.

j/k -- Thanks for the thoughtful post from Muldoon, we can argue on the ONT all night long. ALL night long.

Posted by: GnuBreed at March 25, 2020 10:19 PM (Z4rgH)

312 You didn't know?

Muldoon was the model for that painting!
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at March 25, 2020 10:17 PM (dLLD6)


I...no. No clue.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:20 PM (zr5Kq)

313 The rational solution is to shoot the antivaxxers in the head, before they spread.


Posted by: Alcoholic Asshole Shut In at March 25, 2020 10:06 PM (JpC1C)

It work for me

Posted by: Kim Jong Un at March 25, 2020 10:20 PM (kOpft)

314 Not high.

Posted by: Caliban a

Buck Turgidson sock, right ?

Posted by: REDACTED at March 25, 2020 10:20 PM (rpxSz)

315

Look at your beta and gamma constants in the SIR model.

Beta = probability of transmission per contact. gamma is 1/duration of illness. R) = beta/gamma.

Posted by: publius, Rascally Rapscallion of a Poperin Pear at March 25, 2020 10:20 PM (rCwaK)

316 A catastrophic pandemic, we're told, but the origin of the disease, China, claims less than 4000 dead.

Posted by: Mr. Peebles at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (oVJmc)

317 I went to my hairdresser's house today to get my hair cut. Her daughter is teaching in Japan and tells her life is pretty much back to normal there - the malls and restaurants are open and they're even holding festivals and things. That's a good sign. I don't trust ChiCom data but it looks like the Japanese - people living on small, densely populated islands - have resumed life as usual.

Posted by: Donna&&&&&&V at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (d6Ksn)

318 >>>Italy has close to 7K dead. For no reason other than getting the Chicom rot.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:16 PM (zr5Kq)


The only way to know is to compare this year's mortality to other year's of flu mortality.

Posted by: Braenyard at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (Sod+H)

319 Panhandler, I have boots that are 29, hell my mustache is 52.

Posted by: Eromero at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (XhWtx)

320 Thanks for an interesting and informative article, Muldoon!

Posted by: Legally Sufficient at March 25, 2020 10:22 PM (WFcrO)

321 publius, Any more news on those Americans stuck in India?

Posted by: George Kaplan at March 25, 2020 10:22 PM (MX4n0)

322 but it looks like the Japanese - people living on small, densely populated islands - have resumed life as usual.
Posted by: Donna&&&&&&V at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (d6Ksn)


They didn't have a lot of cases and sealed their borders early, didn't they?

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 10:22 PM (Zz0t1)

323 I went to my hairdresser's house today to get my hair cut. Her daughter is teaching in Japan and tells her life is pretty much back to normal there - the malls and restaurants are open and they're even holding festivals and things. That's a good sign. I don't trust ChiCom data but it looks like the Japanese - people living on small, densely populated islands - have resumed life as usual.
Posted by: Donna&&&&&&V at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (d6Ksn)

That's good.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:22 PM (zr5Kq)

324 Commissar Hrothgar @ 284--Age cohort? WTF? You mean there's already something inherently dangerous about turning 71? Even without the chinee bat flu? That's a real concern.

Posted by: Eromero at March 25, 2020 10:16 PM (XhWtx)


Hard to believe I know, but members of your 71 year old cohort have only a 95% chance of making it through the year.

Posted by: Commissar Hrothgar at March 25, 2020 10:22 PM (BiNEL)

325 The only way to know is to compare this year's mortality to other year's of flu mortality.
Posted by: Braenyard at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (Sod+H)

this is on top of ALL OTHER MORtALITIES.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:23 PM (zr5Kq)

326 316 A catastrophic pandemic, we're told, but the origin of the disease, China, claims less than 4000 dead.
Posted by: Mr. Peebles at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (oVJmc)

--------

That's couch cushion change in China. They kill more people each year for their annual liver and cornea blowout.

Posted by: Yoda at March 25, 2020 10:23 PM (XVuno)

327 199 - the elderly are supposed to be most susceptible, but what about the 42 yr old mom you posted about? The young guy who threw the statues in the Tiber, he looks to be about 33 and he's in bad shape. I heard a breakdown of New York cases - many in 40s and 50s. I want to go back to work, I think we all should. We just all need PPE.

Posted by: kallisto at March 25, 2020 10:23 PM (3KcdH)

328 Panhandler, I have boots that are 29, hell my mustache is 52.

Ditto, I've got a few years on you and am trying to use common sense, which seems to be sadly lacking in some of our fellow citizens.

Posted by: Panhandler at March 25, 2020 10:23 PM (S/rwf)

329 **Love it when you talk dirty!**
Posted by: shep! at March 25, 2020 10:17 PM (8dulj)

If there is a silver lining to all this, shep does not have a megaphone to air his hysterics.

Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at March 25, 2020 10:24 PM (KnJdm)

330 Buck Turgidson sock, right ?
Posted by: REDACTED at March 25, 2020 10:20 PM (rpxSz)

Don't know what that means. I am, however, a medical writer by profession, and I deal with epidemiology daily.

Posted by: Caliban at March 25, 2020 10:24 PM (QE8X6)

331 China, claims less than 4000 dead.

Posted by: Mr. Peebles at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (oVJmc)
\
And hardcore Commies never lie!

Posted by: Commissar Hrothgar at March 25, 2020 10:24 PM (BiNEL)

332 Marvin Gaye did his best work on the Tamiflu label.

Posted by: Granddork at March 25, 2020 10:24 PM (AwyBS)

333 what are you ? a nazi ?



Italy has close to 7K dead. For no reason other than getting the Chicom rot.
---
How many babies did we kill this year for being inconvenient?

Posted by: Methos at March 25, 2020 10:24 PM (kOpft)

334 But I'll see you in October, right? Maybe Ben Had can talk Rancher Bob into roasting mountain oysters this year.

Posted by: Eromero at March 25, 2020 10:24 PM (XhWtx)

335 I just saw on Twitter than celebs are GOING WITHOUT MAKEUP for the corona virus crisis!
These brave, brave women.. I don't know how we can thank them enough!Julia Roberts posts a photo with no makeup! I think that alone cured this thing!

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 25, 2020 10:24 PM (CjFDo)

336 Muldoon was the model for that painting!
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo


*********

Ouch! That's going to leave a mark.









(On the ottoman)

Posted by: Muldoon at March 25, 2020 10:25 PM (m45I2)

337 old, busted recycling

hot, new self quarantine

yeah, nope

Posted by: REDACTED at March 25, 2020 10:25 PM (rpxSz)

338 China, claims less than 4000 dead.

Posted by: Mr. Peebles at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (oVJmc)
\


That's not what the space shots of the crematories said......

Posted by: Sponge at March 25, 2020 10:25 PM (Zz0t1)

339 Posted almost daily now how many of Italy deaths are Chinese ?
If they were traveling their to work spreading the virus many must have gotten sick after arriving and died.

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 10:25 PM (ZCEU2)

340 How many babies did we kill this year for being inconvenient?
Posted by: Methos at March 25, 2020 10:24 PM (kOpft)


non sequitur.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:25 PM (zr5Kq)

341
Ouch! That's going to leave a mark.









(On the ottoman)
Posted by: Muldoon
---
Out of TP, huh?

Posted by: lin-duh at March 25, 2020 10:26 PM (UUBmN)

342 ONT is up

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 25, 2020 10:26 PM (XVuno)

343 statistical distancing

Posted by: REDACTED at March 25, 2020 10:26 PM (rpxSz)

344 I just saw on Twitter than celebs are GOING WITHOUT MAKEUP for the corona virus crisis!

Stolen directly from Batman 1989.

Love that Joker!

Posted by: grognard at March 25, 2020 10:26 PM (sb+Cg)

345 (On the ottoman)
Posted by: Muldoon at March 25, 2020 10:25 PM (m45I2)


Don't break the ottoman!
I need a place to rest my feet.



Posted by: Chris De Burgh at March 25, 2020 10:26 PM (Zz0t1)

346 Nooood!

Posted by: Commissar Hrothgar at March 25, 2020 10:27 PM (BiNEL)

347 Maybe Ben Had can talk Rancher Bob into roasting mountain oysters this year.

She does, he does, you better man up euro.

Posted by: Panhandler at March 25, 2020 10:27 PM (S/rwf)

348 Thanks Muldoon, people are loosing their ever-lovin' minds over this.

Posted by: GGE of the Moron Horde, NC Chapter at March 25, 2020 10:27 PM (ZXnzo)

349 334 But I'll see you in October, right? Maybe Ben Had can talk Rancher Bob into roasting mountain oysters this year.
Posted by: Eromero at March 25, 2020 10:24 P

My girlfriend wants to start the ball Ball. Rocky Mountain oysters BBQ and dancing.

Posted by: CaliGirl at March 25, 2020 10:28 PM (7bcfy)

350 A catastrophic pandemic, we're told, but the origin of the disease, China, claims less than 4000 dead.
Posted by: Mr. Peebles at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (oVJmc)


Thank you. I have yet to understand why anyone believe's China's bullshit. (And I'm guessing most don't)

I also didn't believe they shut down a city of 11 million because 40 people died. Please.

We stay stocked up on everything as a matter of course, but I doubled my efforts the day I heard that crap.

Posted by: The Winwood Nose at March 25, 2020 10:28 PM (5f/5M)

351 339 Posted almost daily now how many of Italy deaths are Chinese ?
If they were traveling their to work spreading the virus many must have gotten sick after arriving and died.

Posted by: Skip at March 25, 2020 10:25 PM (ZCEU2)


Also, many Chinese have retired in Italy.

Posted by: Braenyard at March 25, 2020 10:28 PM (Sod+H)

352 this is on top of ALL OTHER MORtALITIES.
Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:23 PM


But what about modalities?

Posted by: Prince Mbogo at March 25, 2020 10:29 PM (DMUuz)

353 How many babies did we kill this year for being inconvenient?

Posted by: Methos at March 25, 2020 10:24 PM (kOpft)





non sequitur.

Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:25 PM (zr5Kq)

Really? Explain why we should not care about north of a million American children dying needlessly vs why we should care about thousands of elderly Italians, who were rapidly approaching death's door due to other conditions anyway.

Posted by: Methos at March 25, 2020 10:29 PM (kOpft)

354 A catastrophic pandemic, we're told, but the origin of the disease, China, claims less than 4000 dead.

Posted by: Mr. Peebles at March 25, 2020 10:21 PM (oVJmc)
-----------------------------------

There are allegedly 21 million cell phones missing from China's cell phone universe according to Breitbart & others.

What happened to those people? The Chi-Coms would never lie about the mortality right?

Posted by: Boots at March 25, 2020 10:32 PM (oGBso)

355 352 this is on top of ALL OTHER MORtALITIES.
Posted by: runner at March 25, 2020 10:23 PM

But what about modalities?
Posted by: Prince Mbogo at March 25, 2020 10:29 PM (DMUuz)


**But what about the titties?**

Posted by: getting the banned back into training bras at March 25, 2020 10:33 PM (wyzSl)

356 It looks like Japan has had, to date, 1,193 reported cases and 43 deaths. They sealed off travel to and from China in early Feb.

Posted by: Donna&&&&&&V at March 25, 2020 10:35 PM (d6Ksn)

357 @ChadPergram 2 hours ago

Text of finalized coronavirus bill clocks in at just under 900 pages. Senate trying to get final sign off now

2h

Graham on provision in bill where some on unemployment could make more than working: We've created Pandora's Box for this economy. I wish we could fix this tonight. But if we do not, we'll keep trying and trying and trying

1h

Sen Sanders on GOP issues w/those on unemployment potentially making more than at work: They're..upset that somebody..making $10/12 an hr might end up with a paycheck for 3 months more than they received last wk. Oh my God! The universe is collapsing!..Will the universe survive?

60m

Sanders on Sasse admt on unemployment pay: Some of my Republican friends still haven't given up on the need to punish the poor and working people..but I do not think they're going to get the 60 votes and that will be the end of it

35m

Inching close to Senate vote on coronavirus bill. Senate just ran "hotline" to get an agreement to wrap up. 30 minutes to debate. Vote on Sasse amdt on unemployment benefits (needs 60 yeas). Then final passage. Final passage will need 60. Nothing set yet

19m

Expecting vote series on coronavirus bill to start shortly. 2 votes. Sasse amendment. Then final passage. Both need 60 yeas.

6m

McConnell to hold press conference after upcoming coronavirus bill vote

5m

McConnell on the floor. Sets vote series on coronavirus bill. 2 votes. Sasse amdt. Needs 60 yeas. Then final passage. Needs 60 yeas

4m

McConnell says "the Senate will stay nimble" over the next month. Says no votes in the Senate after tonight until April 20

3m

Schumer on the flr now as Senate approaches vote series on coronavirus phase 3 bill. Both votes in the sequence will run 30 minutes

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 10:42 PM (cF8AT)

358 Also, many Chinese have retired in Italy.
Posted by: Braenyard at March 25, 2020 10:28 PM (Sod+H)

Retired? There are many thousands of Chinese workers living in Italy making those luxury Italian leather goods. There was a long article about them in the Atlantic 2 years ago. The Chinese moved into the luxury goods market in Italy 20 years ago. Some of them work in sweatshop conditions. They were already much resented by the Italian population because 1. cheap labor 2. stronger work ethic than the natives, who like their 2 hour lunches and 8 weeks of paid vaycay 3. they produce a ton of shitty knockoffs, which are cheapening the status value of Italian goods 5. they've created their own Mafia in Italy and Italians already have 1 Mafia to deal with and 4. they don't assimilate, don't become citizens, don't learn Italian and eat weird shit.

The woke "hug a Chinese" mayor of Florence notwithstanding, they weren't popular before this outbreak. Can't imagine the resentment now.

Isn't globalization wonderful?

Posted by: Donna&&&&&&V at March 25, 2020 10:44 PM (d6Ksn)

359 @ChadPergram 2 minutes ago

Vote series starts on Senate floor on coronavirus pkg. This is on the Sasse amdt to bar those from making more on unemployment than they would on the job. Needs 60 yeas. Expected to fail.

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 10:46 PM (cF8AT)

360 What a mess.

Posted by: Braenyard at March 25, 2020 10:47 PM (Sod+H)

361 I posted a lot @ 357...

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 10:48 PM (cF8AT)

362
When da fuck am I going to be able to get a haircut?



Seriously, I've had it UP TO HERE with the doom-mongers saying we
have to have EVERYTHING shut down or else WERE ALL GOING TO DIE. Public
officials are following an unproven and untested strategy pushed by a
fucking think tank. We should be doing what we've always done, isolate
the infected... give the public information on how they can protect
themselves and their family. Prepare for the surge in patients.
Thinking you could or should micromanage 330 million Americans in order
to "flatten the curve" is the height of hubris


THIS.

Let's get back to fucking work.

Posted by: deplorable unperson - sanitized for your protection at March 25, 2020 10:50 PM (mw1Wz)

363 "One thing l know for certain that spreads like wildfire and that is....Panic."

This is so true. It's so bad that if you make a true statement around here some people scream at you that you are spreading panic. They are so full of panic themselves that a obvious true fact is deemed spreading panic. They need to check themselves.
Because the truth is we do not have a sure way to fight this virus, yet. But its coming soon. A few more trials, they say.

Posted by: Case at March 25, 2020 11:03 PM (U5lak)

364 Voting now on the Sasse amdt. This is to fix the problem with over payment of benefits. Needs 60 to pass.

Yes = 38
No = 27

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 11:03 PM (cF8AT)

365 Yes = 41
No = 34

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 11:07 PM (cF8AT)

366
Yes = 44
No = 36

@ChadPergram 5 minutes ago

From colleague Sally Persons. GOP Whip Thune absent for coronavirus vote tonight. Not feeling well. Went back to SD. Is self-monitoring. Romney, Lee & Paul are still in quarantine. Sens Gardner & ScottFL are back & out of quarantine


These 2 roll call votes in the Senate related to the coronavirus bill are running 30 minutes. McConnell trying to space out the votes so senators don't linger in the chamber. Yet...senators are lingering in the chamber

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 11:10 PM (cF8AT)

367
Yes = 47
No = 46

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 11:14 PM (cF8AT)

368 Yes = 48
No = 48

Fails...idiots

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 11:18 PM (cF8AT)

369 thanks Muldoon ... lots of good stuff, sorry I missed it ...


I HOPE the reason for the shut downs is mostly legit .. but I have some fear that the PsyOp side of the China Commies, and then the leftists and the Globalists, also distort the "Firefighter" efforts for their own (4G) political warfare efforts.

this is a JAMA interview ... it showed the intensity of the covid-19 problem, but imo, also the resistance to the HCQ-Z-Pak effective solution. imo, perhaps those in the midst of battle, have too much problem with "changing horses midstream".


BUT, the horse they are riding has no real training for the NOVEL virus at hand. Their TRAINING to protocol actually ends up RESTRICTING their ability to change horses, as the situation demands a New Horse. ...
In the battle ... soldiers are trained to "stay on the horse" ... change is not usually good, because STRESS makes for bad battlefield decisions. BUT from outside, it is more clear, that a NEW solution may be just "what the doctor ordered".


Or maybe that is wrong .. the doctor tends to follow protocols ... but we have a NOVEL virus ... so NOVEL solutions must be selected in the flow of battle. That is not how doctors or soldiers are trained, BUT it is necessary out of the box thinking.


Firefighting is more deliberate ... no real NOVEL fires ... the novel virus thang is different, more nebulous and unique ... imo.

Posted by: illiniwek at March 25, 2020 11:20 PM (Cus5s)

370 Damn

Posted by: Braenyard at March 25, 2020 11:20 PM (Sod+H)

371 oh, here is the JAMA link
youtube.com/watch?v=TH9skp5R9F4

Posted by: illiniwek at March 25, 2020 11:20 PM (Cus5s)

372 Final passage of Phase 3 bill:

Yes = 91
No = 0

Posted by: Tami at March 25, 2020 11:30 PM (cF8AT)

373 Like Glenn Reynolds?

Posted by: TeleSkier at March 25, 2020 11:31 PM (ua1m6)

374 Late to the thread

Thank you Muldoon. I always appreciate your insight.

I so want to meet you at a MoMe. I would be so happy.

Posted by: Nurse ratched at March 26, 2020 01:53 AM (PkVlr)

375

Good stuff Mully ! where did you take your MD in Limerology? Nantucket?


He woz last in his class
Butt had a nice ass
He hit the books
And all the young chooks
Before specializing in Gyno-PLass .............................ty

Posted by: saf at March 26, 2020 06:23 AM (5IHGB)

376 "They both are largely impervious to the puny efforts of man to contain them"


This. Trying to stop all the infections is a fool's game, but it's the standard by which the media is operating (and convincing the LIV to operate).

Posted by: GWB at March 26, 2020 07:22 AM (7Of/6)

377 Pelosi and fellow demorats, up to their eyeballs in the politicization of China's China flu virus, worked hard to exonerate the Chinese and blame our President Trump. Laughably Pelosi expressed love and concern for Americans while blaming Pres Trump, except Pelosi's stalling aid to fighting the flu could only have lead to more deaths by denying desperately needed medical supplies to people and institutions. Pelosi did manage to work hard at plundering the Treasury for the ultra-rich, like for billionaire wind generator mogul Warren Buffet.
Killing citizens while plundering the treasury for the rich, isn't ANYBODY PAYING ATTENTION ? Is posturing all it takes for demorats to endlessly make fools out of people ?

Posted by: ron n. at March 26, 2020 07:24 AM (om5HK)

378 I like to follow the new cases in a log plot form. When the slope changes it gives us hope, when the peak is reached, the end is in sight. As of last night the slope had changed to be shallower. Of course a few days could just be a fluke, a few more days or week is needed to see if this is a true trend. The death to confirmed case ratio has started to inch back up which is concerning. One of the ways this is different from a normal flu is the higher death rate, we do not need it to increase.

Posted by: Fred at March 26, 2020 07:31 AM (vNeO/)

379 @ Fred if you are talking about Italy I'd just mention that the momentum for new cases breaks before the deaths. I am still optimistic that what ever happened in China burnt through in 3 months maybe 4 from patient zero. Fat Tuesday was Feb 25 Italy was still partying then Lent. Schools were closed March 4 and the real crack down March 11. and now for several days modelers have been saying Italy is at the peak. So in another 30 days there may be only embers of ill left like Wuhan if it follows the same burn out pattern.

Posted by: piratepatch at March 26, 2020 09:23 AM (taXNc)

380 A much appreciated bit of sanity.

Posted by: aelfheld at March 26, 2020 10:41 AM (IxDhF)

381 Thank you very much for this article. While I enjoyed it very much and learned something it did remind me why statistics & probability are not my favourite field of mathematics.

Posted by: timactual at March 26, 2020 04:32 PM (pPXFf)

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