aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
CBD:
cbd.aoshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com
ABC National Poll: Trump Still Leads, But His Support Declines While Everyone Else's Rises
NEW NBC/WSJ POLL PUTS IT TRUMP 30, CRUZ 27
Big Update: Thanks to commenters alerting me to this new poll.
Donald Trump holds a narrow, three-point lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows, but the data also reveal potential cracks in his support. The New York businessman is the top choice of 30% of likely Republican primary voters nationally, the poll finds, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, at 27%. Ohio Gov. John Kasich has 22%, while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has 20%, according to the poll.
This is the wrong trajectory for a guy who's winning the nomination. As I'm sure you've heard, this is the point at which the front-runner begins gaining support, as people take a second look and decide, "Okay, I can live with him. Let's rally around him." The opposite is happening with Trump. Yes, he still leads, but his lead is now single digits over Cruz in a new ABC News poll as well, and Cruz's get out the vote organization exists, whereas Trump's does not.
I remember when Trump was going to get half the Jeb/Carson/Christie vote and cruise to 45 percent. pic.twitter.com/KYaULO1rSM
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) March 8, 2016
Dip into the crosstabs and you’ll find that, among non-Trump and non-Cruz voters, Cruz wins... 72/17. In other words, if the field clears, virtually all of Rubio’s and Kasich’s support goes to Cruz over Trump. No wonder Cruz suddenly seems keen to finish off Rubio in Florida by starving him of conservative votes there; if these numbers are right, Cruz could beat Trump the rest of the way even if Trump has Florida in his back pocket.The Rubes won't like this -- they whine an awful lot -- but it's just business, guys. For a year it's been Mario's strategy to kill all candidates except Trump and then win a head-to-head contest with him. Mario can't complain too much about Cruz taking the same position. But they will. Because it's what they do -- they whine. Right now they're whining that a Cruz volunteer spread a CNN story -- which CNN stands by-- that some of Rubio's advisors are advising him to drop out of the race before Florida to keep his electoral viability in other potential non-presidential contests. The Rubes have claimed this to be "false," but CNN stands by the story, and it's still up on their site. So why is it wrong for a Cruz volunteer to push this story out into the world? The Rubes people have done nothing but savage other candidates. Part of the reason I quit Twitter was because I was tired of dealing with the Fury of the Rubes. So what's wrong with this? Absolutely nothing at all, except the story hurts Mario. Which is, in a Social Justice Warrior sort of way, enough to make it a Heresy.
* Which is pronounced coo deh grahs, with a short s, but definitely with an S sound. A lot of English speakers incorrectly pronounce this without the S -- coo de grah -- which is wrong. Wikipedia calls this "hyperforeign," a sort of error of pronunciation one makes when one tries to apply poorly-understood rules of pronuciation of a foreign language. The "s" sound would be absent if it were "gras," meaning fat (as in foie gras). But this is coup de grace, ce. The e is silent, which makes the c not silent, but instead sounded. The silent e "protects" the next-to-last letter from being silent.
I noticed this watching Man with the Golden Gun when Herve Villechaiz, who spoke French as a first language, pronounced it correctly as coo de graS. He was right. It's how you say it. I hadn't actually heard the term pronounced since I started learning French, and had only said it when I didn't know French -- I was using the "hyperforeign" "coo de grah" pronunciation myself, out of (incorrect) habit. Always trust content from Herve Villechez.Comments
(Jump to bottom of comments)Posted by: Tim in GA at March 08, 2016 05:07 PM (RWjrX)
Posted by: Skip at March 08, 2016 05:08 PM (fizMZ)
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:08 PM (/dSsq)
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 08, 2016 05:09 PM (8ZskC)
Posted by: Tim in GA at March 08, 2016 05:09 PM (RWjrX)
Still? How do we know this? I'm just curious. You'd think he would have learned.
Posted by: artisanal 'ette at March 08, 2016 05:10 PM (qCMvj)
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:10 PM (xuouz)
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:10 PM (/dSsq)
Posted by: artisanal 'ette at March 08, 2016 05:10 PM (qCMvj)
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:10 PM (/dSsq)
Okay. That's one.
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 08, 2016 05:11 PM (8ZskC)
Posted by: garrett at March 08, 2016 05:11 PM (440T9)
My hair dresser loves Him....
Posted by: donna
So only your hairdresser knows for sure?
Posted by: Prince Ludwig the #Problematic at March 08, 2016 05:11 PM (SiyyF)
What other person could hang on to lead without paid advertising in the face of tens of millions in negative ads and all the bad publicity of members of his own party badmouthing him?
Posted by: jwest at March 08, 2016 05:11 PM (Zs4uk)
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:10 PM (/dSsq)
Okay. That's one.
Not to worry... We're in Ca. and Our votes don't count anyway... At least in the general...
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:11 PM (/dSsq)
Posted by: Gerald Wiltercrest at March 08, 2016 05:11 PM (B3e0K)
====
Aesthetically liberal fiscal conservatives with trust funds. Those who don't like Marco, anyway.
Which is lots of them.
This is coming from Mass, so, disregard it as needed.
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:12 PM (xuouz)
He will go into Cleveland with maybe 30% of the delegates.. and the GOP will not owe him a damn things.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 08, 2016 05:12 PM (so+oy)
Posted by: Stay out da bushes at March 08, 2016 05:12 PM (cR/4a)
Posted by: The Hysterical Sally Kohn at March 08, 2016 05:12 PM (YFFpo)
http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/11/25/bush.brother.reut/
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian at March 08, 2016 05:13 PM (3dOE/)
Meanwhile you've got Bret Baer on Fox hosting the Clinton Adulation Forum.
Yet people can't figure out why Republicans don't win.
Posted by: Marcus T at March 08, 2016 05:13 PM (VOwX8)
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:13 PM (xuouz)
Posted by: phoenixgirl, i was born a rebel at March 08, 2016 05:13 PM (0O7c5)
Posted by: Old Blue at March 08, 2016 05:13 PM (9iR5/)
Posted by: artisanal 'ette at March 08, 2016 05:10 PM
-----
Trump seems to be trying to run a very minimalist campaign on the cheap to avoid spending a lot of his own money. He seems committed to the model he has used this far of free media appearances and avoiding running any TV ads or doing any of the traditional stuff outside holding rallies. I get spammed by every candidate except him. He isn't doing anything online other than tweeting alot.
Posted by: L, Elle at March 08, 2016 05:14 PM (2x3L+)
---
Which is okay as those of use voting for him don't owe the gop a damn thing.
Posted by: Methos, AoS commenter since 2006, apparently also non-voting democrat at March 08, 2016 05:14 PM (ZbV+0)
Posted by: IP at March 08, 2016 05:14 PM (aQQbl)
Saw an interview with a Michigan voter on Fox this morning. He had voted
for Bernie, didn't like Shrillary, and said that he could vote for
Kasich if she and he were the nominees.
Posted by: Old Blue at March 08, 2016 05:13 PM (9iR5/)
so that's three!!!
Posted by: phoenixgirl, i was born a rebel at March 08, 2016 05:14 PM (0O7c5)
its called the gop establishment
its called the government media complex
its called the deep state
its called the cruz campaign
its called the rubio campaign
Posted by: sound awake at March 08, 2016 05:14 PM (i7LpU)
Posted by: Weirddave at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (N8hFs)
- Ross Douthat
I remember when he was going to drop out in July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb...
Posted by: weft cut-loop at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (A/3fN)
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (/dSsq)
This experience of the party establishment turning tens of millions of dollars in negative advertising and a full court racist-sexist-hitler chant on the frontrunner is unprecedented. I would argue that it's the dynamic rather than inherent flaw in Trump that is keeping him from running away with it for now.
Posted by: Jake at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (nV/6T)
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:13 PM (xuouz)
Can you imagine what would happen if Trump opened the floodgates and allowed money to flow into his campaign?
I don't think the other candidates would be able to buy a spot on tv.
Posted by: jwest at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (Zs4uk)
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 08, 2016 05:09 PM (8ZskC)
Fiscally conservative (allegedly) but very socially liberal Republicans. At least the ones I know who are voting for him are that way
Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (493sH)
The angle of a fourth bullet hole didn't match the others.
An elaborate computer analysis, a review of the FBI aerial video of the shooting scene and a video from a passenger in Finicum's pickup produced a result that startled the team poring over evidence into Finicum's fatal shooting that day.
The fourth round, police concluded, was fired by an FBI agent who subsequently twice denied to investigators ever firing his gun. As the investigation proceeded, detectives determined he also fired a second time, but didn't hit anything at the scene.
The discovery of that gunfire and conduct afterward by the agent and four other agents have triggered a criminal investigation that could result in the prosecution of all five. The agents all serve on the FBI's Hostage Rescue Team. Authorities on Tuesday released few details about the matter and didn't identify the agents by name.
But the disclosure is a jolt to the FBI.
Posted by: Clive Bundy at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (e8kgV)
Posted by: Arnold Schwarzenegger As Doctor Victor Fries at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (dciA+)
for Bernie, didn't like Shrillary, and said that he could vote for
Kasich if she and he were the nominees.
Posted by: Old Blue at March 08, 2016 05:13 PM (9iR5/)
so that's three!!!
Posted by: phoenixgirl, i was born a rebel at March 08, 2016 05:14 PM (0O7c5)
Growing Kasichmentum!
Posted by: Jay Guevara at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (oKE6c)
He's already been saying "he's not a politician" and "he's new at this." That will be his excuse. And he'll say he got people interested in voting again, record numbers, yadda yadda yadda.
If he had learned how to GOTV on the ground, he could be, potentially, destroying everyone.
Posted by: artisanal 'ette at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (qCMvj)
Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (AREHq)
Meanwhile you've got Bret Baer on Fox hosting the Clinton Adulation Forum.
Yet people can't figure out why Republicans don't win.
Posted by: Marcus T at March 08, 2016 05:13 PM (VOwX
Exactly. The fox that lost its brush.
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:16 PM (xuouz)
Posted by: Arnold Schwarzenegger As Doctor Victor Fries at March 08, 2016 05:16 PM (dciA+)
RCP average still shows strong double digits lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/ president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian at March 08, 2016 05:16 PM (3dOE/)
Posted by: Joe Hallenbeck at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (xzZPy)
If he had learned how to GOTV on the ground, he could be, potentially, destroying everyone.
Posted by: artisanal 'ette at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (qCMvj)
Excuse for what?
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (xuouz)
Posted by: goatweed at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (CBcnm)
But let's not crow, Trump is ahead and not by a point or two. He could and probably will still win.
Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (hR1Jj)
---
Huh. I wonder what the government might look like if someone ran it that way.
Posted by: Methos, AoS commenter since 2006, apparently also non-voting democrat at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (ZbV+0)
Posted by: John's Mom at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (c7vUv)
Posted by: Slapweasel, (Cold1) (T) at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (OQ9R7)
Posted by: Vincent van Gogh at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (e8kgV)
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (LAe3v)
Vote for John Kasich -- he's cooollll!
Posted by: Arnold Schwarzenegger As Doctor Victor Fries at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (dciA+)
Posted by: Vincent van Gogh at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (e8kgV)
We don't have your ear for languages.
(Looking around on floor) Oh wait, maybe we do.
Posted by: Jay Guevara at March 08, 2016 05:18 PM (oKE6c)
Posted by: Cantankerous at March 08, 2016 05:18 PM (326rv)
Posted by: L, Elle at March 08, 2016 05:18 PM (2x3L+)
i wonder what a general election campaign against hillary's one billion dollar effort will look like, too.
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:19 PM (dciA+)
Posted by: weft cut-loop at March 08, 2016 05:15 PM (A/3fN)
AmishDude predicted that Trump will drop out in September while Hillary is polling 60% against him.
Posted by: Bear at March 08, 2016 05:19 PM (uURQL)
Posted by: Skeezix at March 08, 2016 05:19 PM (WnCSK)
Run by people trying to avoid spending their own money? Pretty much like it does right now.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (39g3+)
Posted by: DaveA at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (DL2i+)
Posted by: Bud Norton at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (6cOMd)
Posted by: ReactionaryMonster browsing Bravely at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (uURQL)
Cruz dirty trick will cause Ben Carson to lose Florida!!!!
Posted by: Joe Hallenbeck at March 08, 2016 05:17 PM (xzZPy)
... perhaps, a Carson loss in Florida might have something to do with his suspended campaign.
Posted by: Efrem Zimbalist Jr. at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (e8kgV)
Posted by: Old Blue at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (9iR5/)
It looks like all three will go into convention with 900 to 500 delegates and that clears the way for a second vote going to Jeb!
Posted by: Gentlemen, this is democracy manifest at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (LWu6U)
Posted by: Gerald Wiltercrest at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (B3e0K)
Posted by: sound awake at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (i7LpU)
IT'S BECAUSE NO ONE WANTS TO GO TO THE CAMPS!!
Posted by: The Hysterical Sally Kohn
The camps? I'm more concerned with going on the cart!
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (LAe3v)
...........
An average is different than a tracking poll.. The ABC graph shows trajectory.. RCP average still include polls where he was high, so it is not a snapshot of here and now.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 08, 2016 05:21 PM (so+oy)
Posted by: Gerald Wiltercrest at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM
He does hold the record for eeyorism...
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:21 PM (/dSsq)
Trump ads are airing on TV in Ohio. Official ads with "I'm Donald Trump and I approve this message." He is advertising.
Posted by: buzzion at March 08, 2016 05:21 PM (z/Ubi)
If either of them stay in and the other is replaced, it could be a landslide - either way. I mean, you and I know Biden is a douchebag, but a lot of people don't. Hardcore dems (and some establishmongers) hate Cruz, but his "general public" negatives aren't that high.
Also, I don't know what Trump's actual crossovers (Dem voters) numbers will be in the end - they're considerable now. I also don't know what percentage of them are Anti-Illegal Dems (who are a real thing) and how many are voting for him in primaries because they think he's easy to beat - also a real thing. Obviously they don't vote for him in the general.
There's a crapton of wishcasting going on, but the situation is very chaotic and I don't know how it will turn out. I do worry that Helony's negs seem to be pretty static and Trump keeps adding a few each time he does / says something that annoys people. He keeps annoying new groups, she's mostly annoying the same ones.
Ideally Kasich and Rubio would check out and maybe the field would stabilize, but that doesn't look like it's happening.
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at March 08, 2016 05:21 PM (bLnSU)
Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at March 08, 2016 05:21 PM (AREHq)
Posted by: garrett at March 08, 2016 05:21 PM (440T9)
Posted by: (very) Little Billy from GOPe The Circus at March 08, 2016 05:21 PM (WOyz5)
Posted by: Pappy O'Daniel at March 08, 2016 05:21 PM (oVJmc)
Posted by: Bear at March 08, 2016 05:19 PM (uURQL)
eeeeeee why'd you say his name?
*looks around, listens intently for clopping hooves and sniffs for the scent of freshly hand-planed wood*
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:22 PM (xuouz)
>>Ted Cruz
---------
Is "small flag" a euphemism? Are you trying to tell us something about his penis size?
Posted by: L, Elle at March 08, 2016 05:22 PM (2x3L+)
---
I don't much like the trajectory. Not so much as regards Cruz, who is acceptable, but Kasich and Rubio are also trending up. Which means they stay in and eat up delegates in the proportional states potentially leading to the brokered convention shitstorm.
Posted by: Methos, AoS commenter since 2006, apparently also non-voting democrat at March 08, 2016 05:22 PM (ZbV+0)
Really? When did that happen? Unbelievable!
Posted by: Joe Hallenbeck at March 08, 2016 05:22 PM (xzZPy)
Always trust content from Herve Villechez.
You'll need bulletproof shin-guards. But most of us probably have them already for Imperial reasons.
Posted by: DaveA at March 08, 2016 05:22 PM (DL2i+)
Posted by: Lauren at March 08, 2016 05:23 PM (q1uzA)
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:19 PM (dciA+)
Trump hasn't spent any of his own money yet because the publicity he's been getting has proven enough to put him in first.
But, if you haven't noticed, Mr. Trump has an ego.
If he is the nominee against Hillary and he starts to fall behind, don't you believe that ego might help him dip into a few billion of contributor's money plus a few bucks of his own?
Posted by: jwest at March 08, 2016 05:23 PM (Zs4uk)
http://goo.gl/QuAzN2
NBC/WSJ Likely GOP voters (March 3-6)
Trump: 27%
Cruz: 25%
Kasich 24%
Rubio 23%
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 05:23 PM (89I+i)
Posted by: Minnfidel at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (btH0m)
its called the gop establishment
its called the government media complex
its called the deep state
its called the cruz campaign
its called the rubio campaign
Which of these things is not like the others?
Posted by: Curmudgeon at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (ujg0T)
"Gosh the hometown hogs D-line really matches up great against the visiting Cougars offensive line, they're 24th in DVOA and I've gotta say, Mike..."
Shut the fuck up and we'll talk about it on Monday, boys. Or tomorrow morning. Really and truly it's got to wait until the 16th.
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (xuouz)
Doctor John was not singing about gray-gray.
Upscaled Cadillac SUV with Ruger Alaskan option: Coupe de Griz.
Always trust content from Herve Villechez.
It's Villechaiz. He was from Paris, and studied art at the Aycole dez Bozearties.
And I do, whenever my flight touches down. Deplane!
Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (xq1UY)
Posted by: Methos
...........
Whaaaat? THAT's gonna be the fun part!
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (so+oy)
Posted by: L, Elle at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (2x3L+)
Posted by: Coo DeGrasse Tyson at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (6txJp)
He explains: "When I was on assignment in London, all the other guys were at the pubs trying to pick up girls." They all still stare. "I wanted to pick up French girls."
So Ace is Animal ... I see the resemblance.
Posted by: Paladin (Moderately Nefarious) at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (mCOPv)
Posted by: Ted Cruz at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (GATbt)
19
IT'S BECAUSE NO ONE WANTS TO GO TO THE CAMPS!!
Posted by: The Hysterical Sally Kohn
The camps? I'm more concerned with going on the cart!
Posted by: pep
.....................
Does the cart take us to Fun Camp?
Posted by: Ready for Hillary! at March 08, 2016 05:25 PM (HgMAr)
---
Absent a reason to think Hillary's a better campaigner than Jeb, I think it would look pretty similar to what we've already seen.
Posted by: Methos, AoS commenter since 2006, apparently also non-voting democrat at March 08, 2016 05:25 PM (ZbV+0)
If you consult your AOSHQ handbook, you will see that such admissions are verboten. Hie thee to the barrel, varlet!
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:25 PM (LAe3v)
He's spending someone's money. Again, commercials from his campaign are airing in Ohio. Not some SuperPAC. Official campaign commercials.
Posted by: buzzion at March 08, 2016 05:25 PM (z/Ubi)
Posted by: Jean at March 08, 2016 05:25 PM (cXiMR)
Posted by: sound awake at March 08, 2016 05:25 PM (i7LpU)
Posted by: Aviator at March 08, 2016 05:26 PM (c7vUv)
Posted by: artisanal 'ette at March 08, 2016 05:26 PM (qCMvj)
Posted by: Lincolntf at March 08, 2016 05:26 PM (2cS/G)
Everything will change after tonight.
Tomorrow it will just be Trump and Cruz.
By Thursday, the GOP will yet again begin to leak rumors about a brokered convention in which they select the nominee.
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 05:26 PM (tNKjc)
Posted by: Palerider at March 08, 2016 05:26 PM (dkExz)
Posted by: DaveA at March 08, 2016 05:26 PM (DL2i+)
Does Stringer, that deep old file, put close tags at the front of his nick? Does this make him a savvy old hand?
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:26 PM (xuouz)
Posted by: Minnfidel at March 08, 2016 05:27 PM (btH0m)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at March 08, 2016 05:27 PM (p4UlV)
And Ross Douthat can go play "I Remember When" up his ass.
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 05:27 PM (tNKjc)
Posted by: L, Elle at March 08, 2016 05:27 PM (2x3L+)
C'mon, ace. You know you want to come back.
#NeverTrump
You know it.
Posted by: Twitter at March 08, 2016 05:27 PM (WOyz5)
Photos taken by officers in January of the 2004 Lincoln with its arboreal accessory have gone viral since the images were posted on the Roselle Police Department's new Facebook page last week.
The tree was estimated to be about 15 feet tall.
... most definitely a Trump fan.
Posted by: James Carville at March 08, 2016 05:27 PM (e8kgV)
Posted by: buzzion at March 08, 2016 05:25 PM (z/Ubi)
He took out a small loan of 10 million dollars.
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (xuouz)
His base of support was evident in the views of voters such as Kate Hude, a 38-year-old attorney in Lansing who said she supported Kasich and feared the other candidates "are destroying their party."
"I'm anti-Trump, anti-Cruz, anti-Rubio, and the Democrats don't need my help right now," she said.
Democrats are voting for Kasich
Posted by: MC DuQuesne at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (LbE7d)
Posted by: All Teh Meh at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (yos+4)
I have no doubt you are right about the French pronunciation. But, when the English language steals words and phrases from other languages, we may keep the original pronunciation, or we may mangle it according to our whim. I suspect that the "incorrect" pronunciation is already too popular, and in time, dictionaries will bow to the inevitable and accept "coo de grah" as an alternative correct pronunciation.
Dictionaries, after all, are descriptive, not proscriptive.
http://tinyurl.com/hxtl3of (Volokh at WP)
Posted by: Anon Y. Mous at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (R+30W)
Benghazi scrawled on a cardboard sign in blood.
Posted by: DaveA at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (DL2i+)
............
She's wasting her fund on a fight with Bernie.. she's already tapped out a lot of her big donors.. although they can donate again for the general..
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (so+oy)
the scolding and tantrum being thrown by the GOP} Is pushing me towards
an eff you vote.
Posted by: Minnfidel at March 08, 2016 05:24 PM (btH0m)
I see. So, you're okay with letting the GOPe determine for whom you vote?
Vote for the one you like.
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (LAe3v)
Just remember one thing: While you're trying to defeat Trump, the GOP is trying to defeat Trump...
and You.
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (tNKjc)
Posted by: buzzion at March 08, 2016 05:25 PM (z/Ubi)
I believe you, but it's piss change compared to other campaigns.
He'll ramp it up when necessary.
Posted by: jwest at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (Zs4uk)
Trump is being hit with a lot of negativity right now, thanks to the GOPe. Don't think that the GOPe won't turn on Cruz.
I like Cruz but in the general it'll be easy for the Dems to drive up his negatives. His abortion position alone is a problem. Name one state that Cruz can win that Romney lost.
Posted by: Ignoramus at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (r1fLd)
Posted by: Breathless newsreader at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (xuouz)
they really are scared about him=he should get the nomination
Posted by: sound awake at March 08, 2016 05:29 PM (i7LpU)
Posted by: phadedjaded at March 08, 2016 05:29 PM (ZQrUp)
Posted by: (very) Little Billy from GOPe The Circus at March 08, 2016 05:29 PM (WOyz5)
Posted by: Bernie supporters at March 08, 2016 05:29 PM (xuouz)
That is, Rubio has a real future to look ahead to; he's got skin in the game and he knows it. Kasich? YOLO.
I know it's an unpopular opinion around here, but I think Rubio's gotta stay in, to keep Trump AND Kasich from hitting 1237 combined.
Posted by: T at March 08, 2016 05:29 PM (1Dc9T)
And certainly polling - especially one poll - isn't making things any more clear.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 08, 2016 05:30 PM (39g3+)
19
IT'S BECAUSE NO ONE WANTS TO GO TO THE CAMPS!!
Posted by: The Hysterical Sally Kohn
I hope Trump's people review all the comments before they decide who goes to the camps and who ends up running them.
Posted by: jwest at March 08, 2016 05:30 PM (Zs4uk)
Posted by: All Teh Meh at March 08, 2016 05:31 PM (yos+4)
There was an "AD" on the ONT. I didn't want to come right out and ask, because that would be stating a question in the form of a mathematical sentence. Also, that "saying a name three times."
Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 08, 2016 05:31 PM (xq1UY)
Posted by: goon at March 08, 2016 05:31 PM (gy5kE)
And on the other side, the Republicans are flaying, eviscerating, burning at the stake, drawing and quartering; the only viable candidates in an effort to make certain that their great light-brown malleable hope can some how sneak into the White House to keep the gravy train rolling.
Make no mistake, I am not fatalistic in the least.
But I am smart enough to recognize that this country is not what we have deluded ourselves into believing what it was - for decades now. They are telling us - screaming at us - that they will remain in control.
They let us try our little liberty experiment, but now enough is enough. It's time to let the big people do what we all know is the best thing for us.
Posted by: Mr Macca Bean at March 08, 2016 05:31 PM (4ng05)
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:25 PM (LAe3v)
(turns lightsaber on)
(turns lightsaber off)
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at March 08, 2016 05:31 PM (bLnSU)
Posted by: Yip at March 08, 2016 05:31 PM (e7T6D)
Posted by: The Great White Snark at March 08, 2016 05:32 PM (Nwg0u)
Posted by: Palerider at March 08, 2016 05:26 PM (dkExz)
Bonus question: what's the difference between "forte" (fort) and "forte" (fortay)?
Clue: the latter does not mean "strong point."
Posted by: Jay Guevara at March 08, 2016 05:32 PM (oKE6c)
RCP average still shows strong double digits lead.
...........
An average is different than a tracking poll.. The ABC graph shows trajectory.. RCP average still include polls where he was high, so it is not a snapshot of here and now.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 08, 2016 05:21 PM (so+oy)
I understand the difference between a single data point on a tracking poll and an average. The point being is that it is one single data point.
Also note: "(In a difference from previous matchups, this poll asked respondents
whom they'd like to see win, rather than whom they'd vote for, since the
primaries are underway.)"
So it's a snapshot. The RCP average is the context.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian at March 08, 2016 05:32 PM (3dOE/)
Posted by: Bernie supporters
Go with full-on Stalinism! Don't settle for half measures!
Posted by: Feel the Bern at March 08, 2016 05:32 PM (SiyyF)
Anything to keep that dreadful Trump character out of my living room for the next four years, am I right? He's no Bush. God what is this country coming to.
Posted by: Valerie Elizabeth Claiborne Carrington-Cook at March 08, 2016 05:32 PM (xuouz)
Posted by: buzzion
Supposedly, he's been getting a metric shit ton of $25 & $50 donations.
Posted by: rickb223 at March 08, 2016 05:32 PM (4dbPD)
Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 08, 2016 05:31 PM (xq1UY)
That's someone else, AD is his own man.
Whatever happened to EC? Those are my initials. I had an affinity for that one.
Posted by: Valerie Elizabeth Claiborne Carrington-Cook at March 08, 2016 05:33 PM (xuouz)
thanks to commenters for alerting me to this poll.
Pretty enormous.
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:33 PM (dciA+)
Posted by: goon at March 08, 2016 05:33 PM (gy5kE)
Posted by: Qoheleth at March 08, 2016 05:33 PM (iIzG7)
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:33 PM (xuouz)
---
Is that what this "Drumpf" thing is about? I've seen it used elsewhere without explanation (by someone who obviously was too foolish to warrant conversation).
Posted by: Methos, AoS commenter since 2006, apparently also non-voting democrat at March 08, 2016 05:33 PM (ZbV+0)
Posted by: goon at March 08, 2016 05:33 PM (gy5kE)
---
I don't much like the trajectory. Not so
much as regards Cruz, who is acceptable, but Kasich and Rubio are also
trending up. Which means they stay in and eat up delegates in the
proportional states potentially leading to the brokered convention
shitstorm.
Posted by: Methos, AoS commenter since 2006, apparently also non-voting democrat at March 08, 2016 05:22 PM (ZbV+0)
----
There is no other way to stop Trump. It's either brokered convention or Trump. Cruz doesn't have a chance to get to 1237 once he loses FL and OH (WTA) and NJ/NY (WTM).
Best scenario right now: brokered convention, conservative alliance against Trump, Cruz/Rubio or Cruz/Kasich ticket.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 05:33 PM (89I+i)
Posted by: Pappy O'Daniel at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (oVJmc)
think Rubio's gotta stay in, to keep Trump AND Kasich from hitting 1237
combined.
Posted by: T
Yours is a reasonable position. I don't know whether it's best to keep them all in and go for the brokered convention, or have a 2-man race, Trump v. Cruz, and hope for the best. People who say otherwise overestimate their own knowledge or are conspiracy freaks. Or both.
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (LAe3v)
Posted by: WisRich at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (hdpay)
Posted by: Old Blue at March 08, 2016 05:20 PM (9iR5/)
He's a placeholder.
He's not going to hit her where it might really hurt.
Posted by: artisanal 'ette at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (qCMvj)
Posted by: eleven at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (qUNWi)
Posted by: ThunderB at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (zOTsN)
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 05:33 PM (89I+i)
***
I think this is exactly right.
Posted by: T at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (1Dc9T)
I thought it would be helpful because coup de grace (hat over the a) actually does come up a fair amount, right? It's one of the most used foreign phrases.
Like I said, even knowing french, I had been mispronouncing it out of habit. Figured it would be useful for people to know, for certain, how to say Killing Stroke properly.
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (dciA+)
"Nice little country you've got here, Hans. It sure would be a shame if anything were to happen to it."
Posted by: jwest at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (Zs4uk)
Bargaining is good to see, though. Bargaining and Depression.
Acceptance...It is...Your destiny
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:35 PM (xuouz)
Thanks, glad to hear it. FWIW I don't mean Aetius, and this was a kinda-sorta anti-lawyer comment, so you can appreciate my consternation.
Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 08, 2016 05:35 PM (xq1UY)
It's such a crime cute little Marco isn't getting through to the hoi
polloi but I for one am just tickled to see Mr. Kasich gaining some
traction.
---
One doesn't say "the hoi polloi". "Hoi" already means the. "Hoi polloi" suffices.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 05:35 PM (89I+i)
Posted by: Blanco Basura at March 08, 2016 05:35 PM (YEelc)
A few billion? The record is roughly 1 billion and you think a guy who has peaked in the high 30s is going to generate double that in the general when they money forces are reportedly already lining up against him?
I'm beginning to understand why Trump supporters think so highly of their guy. Reality plays no part in their support.
Posted by: JackStraw at March 08, 2016 05:36 PM (/tuJf)
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:36 PM (LAe3v)
Posted by: Ignoramus at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (r1fLd)
Florida? Cubans and all that.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at March 08, 2016 05:36 PM (ujg0T)
What on earth does that even mean?
Posted by: eleven at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (qUNWi)
It means the dataset is trash and there are tears in the blog's future.
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:36 PM (xuouz)
which would be coo daytah.
t is silent. No e at the end to protect it.
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:36 PM (dciA+)
Burn down GOP Inc, or nothing changes.
Posted by: Born Free at March 08, 2016 05:36 PM (yi+NQ)
Posted by: IC at March 08, 2016 05:37 PM (Ux3zV)
I think there is a lot of that going on. Folks are being shamed into keeping Trump support to themselves unless they KNOW they are around a like-minded person. Just an anecdote. I like my new neighbor even more. Nice guy.
Posted by: Yip at March 08, 2016 05:37 PM (e7T6D)
Oh, gawd, Ahnuld der Schtuppenfuhrer, the plastic Austrian android from Hollyweird, who married into the Kennedy extended family.
Lived through his tenure as the purportedly "Republican" Governator of Commiefornia. He did nothing about the floods of illegals or the state's arrogant public sector unions. Concentrated his political firepower on crippling the state's industry with carbon taxes, and signing blatantly unconstitutional bans on ammo buying.
I have absolutely no interest in revisiting those years even by proxy.
Posted by: torquewrench at March 08, 2016 05:37 PM (noWW6)
Posted by: Feminist Bruce With a Feminist Wang! at March 08, 2016 05:37 PM (iQIUe)
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 05:35 PM (89I+i)
Valerie took Latin at Hotchkiss, Alabi, not Greek, and she didn't do so hot either.
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:37 PM (xuouz)
actually does come up a fair amount, right? It's one of the most used
foreign phrases.
---
Thanks, DD.
Posted by: Methos, AoS commenter since 2006, apparently also non-voting democrat at March 08, 2016 05:37 PM (ZbV+0)
Posted by: ThunderB at March 08, 2016 05:37 PM (zOTsN)
Would you say then that, like Tony Romo, Trump is a chalker? Always chalks in the big game and loses in the fourth quarter?
Or is that "chocker"? I get confused.
Posted by: Qoheleth at March 08, 2016 05:38 PM (iIzG7)
Posted by: Glacier has splinters in it's leading edge... at March 08, 2016 05:38 PM (qul7b)
okay now pronounce raison detre
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 05:38 PM (tNKjc)
Posted by: Tilikum Killer Assault Whale at March 08, 2016 05:38 PM (+aCe4)
People who say otherwise overestimate their own knowledge or are conspiracy freaks. Or both.
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (LAe3v)
Heh, true that. I am also trying to have faith that Cruz has some info we don't. This is one of those cases where it pays to have a candidate with damn near impeccable judgment.
Posted by: T at March 08, 2016 05:38 PM (1Dc9T)
-
In this case, character is what happens when everybody is watching.
Posted by: The Great White Snark at March 08, 2016 05:38 PM (Nwg0u)
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (dciA+) "
But one performs a coup de grace out of mercy. Some of us prefer to let the dying suffer. Especially if it's Not So Super Mario.
Posted by: broseidon king of the brocean at March 08, 2016 05:38 PM (4/i9Y)
Hrmmm...
Posted by: Ricardo Kill at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (LA7Cm)
i assume you mean d and d. Yeah. Gygax used other french terms picked up, I guess, from old military terminology. Like he'd say "hors de combat" (outside of combat).
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (dciA+)
Vote for the one you like. Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05
I think you misread it. MN already had their caucus (talk about outdated) The next vote I make will bi in Nov. If it's Cruz vs. Hilda, no question. If it's Trump Vs. Hilda, I was torn. Their reaction and hissy fit though is making it easy for me to vote for him. This shit needs to be blown up and while he might not be the vehicle I was hoping for, it's a vehicle nonetheless.
Posted by: Minnfidel at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (btH0m)
Posted by: ThunderB
I tried...several times.
Posted by: John's Mom at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (c7vUv)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (39g3+)
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 05:38 PM (tNKjc)
Hold my beer and pronounce whores doeuvres
Tell me, without thinking too hard, whether you'd say "I had drunk" or "I had drank"
Posted by: Ghost of kari - certified inane at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (xuouz)
There are stories out there that purport to show how difficult it will be for either Trump or Cruz to go to Cleveland with a majority of delegates but they fail to take account of how many post 3/15 primaries are winner-take all or winner take-most.
I expect that Trump will win most of the upcoming primaries including the big ones and have well over the majority of delegates and satisfy Rule 40 by winning eight states by over 50%. Alternatively, if Trump collapses, it'll be Cruz. There's actually not high odds of Trump and Cruz fighting to a standstill with neither getting a majority of deelgates, even if Kasich and/or Rubio hangs in.
YMMV of course. But if I'm right then Romney & Co are very wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
Posted by: Ignoramus at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (r1fLd)
Posted by: Yip at March 08, 2016 05:37 PM (e7T6D)
Holy crap.
Sounds just like me when I was 30.
Hope I'm making a comeback!
Posted by: jwb7605 at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (DofIg)
Posted by: IC at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (Ux3zV)
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:40 PM (dciA+)
Posted by: Duke Lowell at March 08, 2016 05:40 PM (kTF2Z)
Best case is NOT a brokered convention.
I don't want Rubio anything,nor Kasich anything
Fuck off establishment leeches
Posted by: ThunderB at March 08, 2016 05:41 PM (zOTsN)
fried fish! Every thing tastes better cooked out doors. mmmmmm
IT'S NOT THAT KIND OF CAMP!!!
Posted by: The Hysterical Sally Kohn at March 08, 2016 05:41 PM (YFFpo)
the problem is with the french r here. other than that it's not that tricky. RAY-soh detrah.
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:41 PM (dciA+)
Posted by: Soona at March 08, 2016 05:41 PM (Fmupd)
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at March 08, 2016 05:41 PM (ptqRm)
mmmmmm chicken...
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:42 PM (/dSsq)
Ray-sohn detrhe (hard to spell out that French "r" sound in English, its kind of rolled in the back of your throat)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 08, 2016 05:42 PM (39g3+)
Posted by: L, Elle at March 08, 2016 05:42 PM (2x3L+)
Posted by: The Great White Snark at March 08, 2016 05:42 PM (Nwg0u)
Yours is a reasonable position. I
don't know whether it's best to keep them all in and go for the brokered
convention, or have a 2-man race, Trump v. Cruz, and hope for the best.
People who say otherwise overestimate their own knowledge or are
conspiracy freaks. Or both.
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:34 PM (LAe3v)
----
I've spent a couple of hours playing with the RCP simulator. Unless Cruz wins OH and FL, he'll come short of 1237 delegates even if wins 65% of the vote the rest of the way - and that's not factoring that Trump would likely obliterate him in NY and NJ, making it mathematically impossible.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 05:42 PM (89I+i)
Posted by: Dongald Trump at March 08, 2016 05:42 PM (xudgf)
The Trump Post-Primary Speech Template
1. Tells crowd how much he loves their state.
2. Shits on other candidates.
3. Brags about poll numbers.
4. Shits on media.
5. Tells us how beautiful his wife is.
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 05:42 PM (tNKjc)
Posted by: Skip at March 08, 2016 05:43 PM (fizMZ)
Posted by: Lord LearnedALot at March 08, 2016 05:43 PM (J3UIw)
Thanks Ace, French pronunciation is starting to make sense!
Also, there is a long tear in the fabric of the sky, and the stars are going out.
Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 08, 2016 05:43 PM (xq1UY)
The English language loves to abuse foreign languages.
Posted by: Anon Y. Mous at March 08, 2016 05:43 PM (R+30W)
We've recently bought a new construction house, lots of contractors coming and going, I've talked to at least three people, a tile guys, masonry, and plumber, all of them love Trump, but you know what else they have in common, all of them told me they don't vote, they can't be bothered.
Posted by: spypeach at March 08, 2016 05:43 PM (nyYhO)
Because fuck this shit
Posted by: Duke Lowell at March 08, 2016 05:40 PM (kTF2Z) "
The 3rd party Trump/Sanders ticket is going to be, how do you say? Yuuge?
Posted by: broseidon king of the brocean at March 08, 2016 05:43 PM (4/i9Y)
No, I think Trump is an asshat, and always acts like an ass no matter the quarter. But that's just me.
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:43 PM (LAe3v)
Thus bonjour is not bon-jour but bah(nasalized n, barely detectable)zhooor.
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:43 PM (dciA+)
Remember... years ago now... every time you'd hear AC/DC's "Thunder", and you'd be all, "F--kin A, America!"
Bet you ain't felt like that in a while. Years probably.
I also bet you would give a shout in a wind storm to think it's ever coming back, either.
Posted by: Mr Macca Bean at March 08, 2016 05:44 PM (4ng05)
Posted by: The Great White Snark at March 08, 2016 05:38 PM (Nwg0u)
---------------
Actually Trump didn't drop in that poll - he went up and Cruz dropped:
New NBC/WSJ poll - Trump 30 / Cruz 27
Feb NBC/WSJ poll - Cruz 28 / Trump 26
The Feb poll had a much larger sample tho.
Posted by: Stay out da bushes at March 08, 2016 05:44 PM (cR/4a)
I don't want to hear what a despot Trump would be from people who would vote for Hillary
When she jailed a video maker for deaths she lied about and is responsible for
Republicans who would vote for Hillary are the ones voting for a despot
Posted by: ThunderB at March 08, 2016 05:44 PM (zOTsN)
will be getting fried chicken twice a week. I like fried chicken.
mmmmmm chicken...
WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE!!!
Posted by: The Hysterical Sally Kohn at March 08, 2016 05:44 PM (YFFpo)
Bernie
Because fuck this shit
Nice to know Bernie's got the coprophiliac vote.
Posted by: Blanco Basura at March 08, 2016 05:44 PM (YEelc)
-
The "ch" in German is pronounced with a feather tickling the back of the throat.
Posted by: The Great White Snark at March 08, 2016 05:44 PM (Nwg0u)
Posted by: Yip at March 08, 2016 05:37 PM (e7T6D)
Trump might be like the Barry Mannilow of politics. He sold millions of records, but nobody will admit owning one.
Posted by: Minnfidel at March 08, 2016 05:45 PM (btH0m)
Posted by: wooga at March 08, 2016 05:45 PM (zqqpJ)
Posted by: migrant child at March 08, 2016 05:45 PM (6txJp)
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 05:45 PM (tNKjc)
NEW NBC/WSJ POLL PUTS IT TRUMP 30, CRUZ 27
Big Update: Thanks to commenters alerting me to this new poll.
Ahem, Ace:
http://minx.cc:1080/?post=361594
Posted by: Pappy O'Daniel at March 08, 2016 05:45 PM (oVJmc)
There's a magnificent letter written by Ricardo Montalban to his then-teenaged son after the two of them had had a falling out over what the son deemed to be excessively strict parental discipline.
Essentially saying, hey kid, I am not your friend, I am your dad, and there is a huge difference between these two things.
Posted by: torquewrench at March 08, 2016 05:45 PM (noWW6)
Posted by: Mama AJ at March 08, 2016 05:45 PM (nXeSu)
Posted by: steevy at March 08, 2016 05:46 PM (B48dK)
Posted by: x at March 08, 2016 05:46 PM (nFwvY)
Posted by: ThunderB
But a despot who will keep the gravy train (with biscuit wheels) running on time.
Posted by: Prince Ludwig the #Problematic at March 08, 2016 05:46 PM (SiyyF)
Posted by: angela urkel at March 08, 2016 05:47 PM (6txJp)
Posted by: goon at March 08, 2016 05:47 PM (gy5kE)
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 05:47 PM (tNKjc)
Big Update: Thanks to commenters alerting me to this new poll.
Ahem, Ace:
http://minx.cc:1080/?post=361594
...
right, and everyone assumed that was an outlier. But add the ABCnews poll to this and it appears that trump's declining popularity isn't so outlier-ish.
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:48 PM (dciA+)
wins OH and FL, he'll come short of 1237 delegates even if wins 65% of
the vote the rest of the way - and that's not factoring that Trump would
likely obliterate him in NY and NJ, making it mathematically
impossible.
I assume you mean that its mathematically impossible for him to win the nom outright. That may well be correct, but it's not the main issue here. The question we all have to ask is what is the best scenario for ensuring that the Trump supporters don't think they've been abused, if it comes to a convention, and still show up to vote for the nominee in the fall. It may well be that there is no such scenario,
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:48 PM (LAe3v)
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:43 PM (dciA+)
Reminds me of Kelly's Heroes, where a staff officers tells the general (played by a cigar-chewing Carroll O'Connor) that the troops are at "Clermonnnn."
The general, looking disgusted, removes his cigar and snaps, "You mean ClerMONT, major?"
"Yessir."
"Then say that, goddamnit," putting the cigar back in his mouth.
Posted by: Jay Guevara at March 08, 2016 05:48 PM (oKE6c)
Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (4ErVI)
"Hors de combat" was a polite but snarky term (very Parisian) for one abstaining from whoring whilst undergoing the mercury treatment for the English Pox.
Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (xq1UY)
-
The Trump secret handshake is done with short fingers.
Posted by: The Great White Snark at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (Nwg0u)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (39g3+)
Well then, the race is over. Cruz will sweep to victory in Florida and Ohio, then finish off his prey with wins in Pennsylvania, New York and California.
May he be merciful towards those who dared oppose him.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (kdS6q)
It can't happen. They are both from the South. It will be necessary for Ted to choose a VP that appeals to the west and especially is acceptable to the east coast. I'm at a loss. Kashic, yes, that's the ticket.
Posted by: Ralph at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (rmJzs)
Posted by: ThunderB at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (zOTsN)
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (74ZYB)
Posted by: torquewrench at March 08, 2016 05:45 PM (noWW6)
The younger Guevara has a teacher who tries to be the kids' friend. He's obviously in the wrong line of work.
Posted by: Jay Guevara at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (oKE6c)
Posted by: Ignoramus at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (r1fLd)
What abortion position are you referring?
Posted by: Joe Hallenbeck at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (xzZPy)
huh.
in england they call it "The French disease." They both blame each other.
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:50 PM (dciA+)
This same poll doesn't show much change between Cruz and Trump, only the others coming up.
Sure the field could be changing, but the points that NBC always fixes things at are always wild-ass.
Posted by: Pappy O'Daniel at March 08, 2016 05:50 PM (oVJmc)
confirmation bias writ large.
Posted by: redc1c4 at March 08, 2016 05:50 PM (pkP0k)
Posted by: DM at March 08, 2016 05:50 PM (j/tOh)
I've spent a couple of hours playing with the RCP simulator.
Posted by: Alabi
If you don't stop it you'll go blind.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at March 08, 2016 05:51 PM (kdS6q)
Posted by: garrett at March 08, 2016 05:51 PM (440T9)
19 Arab students killed as Twin Towers collapse in lower Manhattan tragedy!
Related: another airliner loses control, crashes into Pennsylvania countryside after passengers cause disturbance in cockpit.
Posted by: goatexchange at March 08, 2016 05:51 PM (Nd4YY)
Posted by: IC at March 08, 2016 05:51 PM (Ux3zV)
Posted by: Joe Hallenbeck at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (xzZPy)
I think he's referring to the fetal position, which Trump supporters are returning to right now.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 05:52 PM (74ZYB)
Posted by: Blanco Basura at March 08, 2016 05:52 PM (YEelc)
But... what is the e at the end of ace's name there to protect?
::: ponders :::
Posted by: torquewrench at March 08, 2016 05:52 PM (noWW6)
1. One term Senator
2. Perpetual presidential candidate
3. Donations
4. Win!!! (while perpetually losing)
Posted by: ugg boots at March 08, 2016 05:52 PM (fbovC)
Posted by: ThunderB at March 08, 2016 05:52 PM (zOTsN)
The reason to get rid of Rubio is not to help Cruz. It is to get rid of Rubio. Yeb! gone, then Rubio gone. Not the promised land - far from it - but the most odious GOP possibilities will then be gone.
Oh, and Cruz - um, would it absolutely kill you to show, dunno, a tiny bit of smarts and cleverness and announce that you, your campaign, and anyone associated with you is not authorized to speak about other candidates' drop-out plans, if any, for the duration? These are among the most idiotic distractions - which is saying something - in this whole process.
No likely "advantage" to be gained from being talkative on the subject - even, as in this case, the reports of "news" organization - is worth the hassle. It's ridiculous.
"As you may have heard, I'm running for president. Other people are too. It's entirely up to them to answer questions about their campaign plans, whether they plan to suspend. Not my concern. Not the concern of my campaign, my staff, my volunteers. Any of those who open their mouths on the topic know nothing you in the press don't know, and while their mouths are open maybe they can ask you for a job because they will no longer work for my campaign."
Posted by: rhomboid at March 08, 2016 05:52 PM (QDnY+)
Also I don't think that Trump is some kind of lock in NY and NJ just because he lives there.
plus, trump performs worse out west -- california can easily be won by Cruz.
Posted by: ace at March 08, 2016 05:52 PM (dciA+)
ensuring that the Trump supporters don't think they've been abused, if
it comes to a convention, and still show up to vote for the nominee in
the fall. It may well be that there is no such scenario,"
sure there is: nominate Trump as the GOP presidential candidate.
#duh
Posted by: redc1c4 at March 08, 2016 05:53 PM (pkP0k)
Posted by: BeckoningChasm at March 08, 2016 05:53 PM (AroJD)
Posted by: Ignoramus at March 08, 2016 05:28 PM (r1fLd)
-----------------------
Well, at least they'll have to work to do that.
With Trump, they've got astronomically high negatives to start with.
And if I am typical --- which I concede I'm not --- the more people see of Trump, the less they'll like him.
Posted by: Margarita DeVille at March 08, 2016 05:54 PM (T/5A0)
That's no glottal fricative.
"French trained, dearie."
Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 08, 2016 05:54 PM (xq1UY)
Yes He does seem to have the habit of open mouth insert foot...
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:54 PM (/dSsq)
Posted by: Emmett Milbarge at March 08, 2016 05:54 PM (nFdGS)
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 05:54 PM (tNKjc)
Posted by: FenelonSpoke at March 08, 2016 05:54 PM (w4NZ8)
I assume you mean that its mathematically
impossible for him to win the nom outright. That may well be correct,
but it's not the main issue here. The question we all have to ask is
what is the best scenario for ensuring that the Trump supporters don't
think they've been abused, if it comes to a convention, and still show
up to vote for the nominee in the fall. It may well be that there is no
such scenario,
Posted by: pep at March 08, 2016 05:48 PM (LAe3v)
---
You assume correctly, I meant to get to 1237. Trump supporters thinking they've been abused is a bonus to me, but YMMV. They will never stop believing in that - every other could drop out today to give Trump a free-path and once he loses vs Hillary they'd still be blaming someone else because that's just their world-view.
Knowing who would be ahead of delegates is tricky because it'd depend so much on the voting dispersion patters on the WTM states, especially NY/NJ/CA, but if Trump wins OH or FL plus do as expected in NY/NJ, I don't think there's any way he won't enter the convention with the highest number of delegates.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 05:55 PM (89I+i)
Posted by: IC at March 08, 2016 05:55 PM (Ux3zV)
Posted by: steevy at March 08, 2016 05:55 PM (B48dK)
@242 yes..let's declare this over right now. Onwards to the general election with a Cruz/Kasich ticket. That is the winning combo right?
Posted by: IC
And then in the Fall, Cruz wins 300 or 400 electoral votes. Maybe more. Wins states that haven't been won by a Republican since 1984.
Race is called at 8:05 EST out of sheer merciful pity for the Democrats.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at March 08, 2016 05:56 PM (kdS6q)
1. open primary, so cross over voters galore
2. i meet Trump supporters, in all walks of life, ever day in my very blue part of Lost Angels...and this is the part of town where they look at you as if you're a child molester if you say you're a conservative or a Republican
Posted by: redc1c4 at March 08, 2016 05:56 PM (pkP0k)
It can't happen. They are both from the South. It will be necessary for Ted to choose a VP that appeals to the west and especially is acceptable to the east coast. I'm at a loss. Kashic, yes, that's the ticket.
Posted by: Ralph at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (rmJzs)
Usually presidential candidates seem to try to select VPs that play to their weaknesses. Reagan with Bush. Clinton with Gore. Bush with Cheney. McCain with Palin. Obama with Biden (which is just funny.)
The thing is you usually choose someone who is acceptable to your own partisans while also reaching out to other voting blocks. Cruz choosing Rubio or Kasich would actually be anathema to a lot of his own partisans.
My guess, if Cruz gets the nod, would be either try for Trump, or a laundry list of moderates, but not high profile moderates.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at March 08, 2016 05:56 PM (iHjB5)
Posted by: Glacier has splinters in it's leading edge... at March 08, 2016 05:56 PM (qul7b)
If Cruz can win a couple states tonight, he'll pretty well cement that position, but losing OH/FL to Trump might actually better for the nonTrumps overall, because the only way Donald can win WTAs with 35% is with 3-4 candidates in the race.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 05:57 PM (74ZYB)
In Mass I've seen a few Trump stickers. Some Bernie signs. The only things I've seen for Hillary is two "Hillary for Prison" bumper stickers.
Posted by: tu3031 at March 08, 2016 05:57 PM (YFFpo)
On Facebook one of Trumps college buddies had a very nice write up about the Trump he knew from years ago. Did anyone else read that? Didn't endorse or anything like that; just a exposition on the person he knew.
Posted by: IC at March 08, 2016 05:39 PM (Ux3zV)
It was high school, as I recall; New York Military Academy.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian at March 08, 2016 05:57 PM (3dOE/)
Ted doesn't have anything like those two.
Posted by: Skip at March 08, 2016 05:57 PM (fizMZ)
You name it, he loves Trump for reaching out to tear the machine apart. He loves the wall, immigration, all of it. He told me several on his crew feel the same. Who knows.
No doubt in my mind he'll vote. He is pissed and scared for the future and for his kids. ( he went on and on and on ) Oh, and today is the first time I've talked to him for more than 10 minutes since they moved in 4 months ago cause he's always busy ... and they had a baby in Dec... so he's been "real" busy.
Posted by: Yip at March 08, 2016 05:57 PM (e7T6D)
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:58 PM (/dSsq)
GOP Inc. will simply turn their guns on Cruz once Trump's out of the
way. Ryan, et al prefer to work with Democrats. Hillary will be no big
deal for McConnell.
Burn down GOP Inc, or nothing change
-------------
Exactly.
Posted by: JewishOdysseus at March 08, 2016 05:59 PM (+O9YB)
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 05:59 PM (74ZYB)
Posted by: ThunderB at March 08, 2016 05:59 PM (zOTsN)
Posted by: Skip at March 08, 2016 05:59 PM (fizMZ)
Posted by: donna at March 08, 2016 05:59 PM (/dSsq)
Trump rhymes with lost of words.
Plump. Rump. Dump. Stump. Bump. Chump. Clump. Hump. Gump. Mump. Pump. Sump.
Cruz rhymes with...
lose.
Posted by: Buckaroo Banzai at March 08, 2016 06:00 PM (tNKjc)
Posted by: IC at March 08, 2016 06:00 PM (Ux3zV)
Posted by: ThunderB at March 08, 2016 05:52 PM (zOTsN)
The problem with these polls, either with Trump losing to Hillary or with Cruz winning v Hillary is that it is still early days yet.
Trump could turn it around vs Hillary if he gets the nod.
Cruz could crater against a full court media press. Or he could be fine as Hillary gets more large scale exposure in a general race.
I like Cruz and want and think he can win, but the polls for the general right now I would call unreliable, at best because they are taken during a primary period, not in a general election.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at March 08, 2016 06:00 PM (iHjB5)
Posted by: waelse1 at March 08, 2016 06:00 PM (RLMzw)
Posted by: steevy at March 08, 2016 06:01 PM (B48dK)
Posted by: Skip at March 08, 2016 06:01 PM (fizMZ)
Posted by: Feminist Bruce With a Feminist Wang! at March 08, 2016 06:01 PM (iQIUe)
NEW NBC/WSJ POLL PUTS IT TRUMP 30, CRUZ 27
Big Update: Thanks to commenters alerting me to this new poll.
Ahem, Ace:
http://minx.cc:1080/?post=361594
Posted by: Pappy O'Daniel at March 08, 2016 05:45 PM (oVJmc)
*hushed whisper* Don't remind partisan Ace of reasonable Ace. Never the twain shall meet.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (3dOE/)
In what universe does The Donald agree to be anyone's VP?
Cruz's problem is that he has been so disdainful of any moderate he is going to have a limited pool to choose from. I can see Rubio accepting the job since he it is either that or a run for Governor. And a Cruz/Rubio ticket would make Florida a lock.
Cruz can then assign him the Joe Biden seat to do nothing. Everyone wins.
Posted by: JackStraw at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (/tuJf)
Posted by: redc1c4 at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (pkP0k)
Posted by: steevy at March 08, 2016 06:01 PM (B48dK)
That is an interesting question. I was too young during the 80's to know a lot of other politicians who would have been better choices at the time. Who would have been a better choice?
Posted by: Aetius451AD at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (iHjB5)
Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (xq1UY)
did you use the RCP simulator to game out possibilities where Cruz does
not amass a majority, but gets more delegates than Trump?
--
No, as I wrote above there are way too many iterations for that. Impossible to say how the vote will play out by CD.
As for Trump performance on NY/NJ, I'm going by the polls. And Trump winning big there over Cruz would line up well with the type of Republican primary electorate. There's the Paladino/Trump folks and the suburban ones people like you call "establishment". That's why you have so many Christine O'Donnell vs Mike Castle races in the northeast.
But Cruz would need to win 7 out of 10 delegates to catch up with Trump if Trump wins FL/OH. I don't think there's any plausible way of that happening.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (89I+i)
Posted by: Jacob's Step Stool at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (sqs5K)
My guess, if Cruz gets the nod, would be either try for Trump, or a laundry list of moderates, but not high profile moderates.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at March 08, 2016 05:56 PM (iHjB5)
***
I would love to see Cruz give Rubio AG, just to spite Chrispie
Posted by: T at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (1Dc9T)
Posted by: Phone of kari at March 08, 2016 06:03 PM (HWxdx)
Posted by: grandmalcaesar at March 08, 2016 06:03 PM (yrohn)
Posted by: Dr Spank at March 08, 2016 06:04 PM (M5e0f)
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 05:55 PM (89I+i)
--
Nah, there are 700+ WTA delegates after 3/15 and Trump could easily lose all of them in a two-man race.
Remember, Trump lost Maine by double-digits even with Kasich and Rubio still in the race, and he's still falling. I'm not sure we can assume he takes NY (WTM) or even NJ (last primary day) in a two-man race.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 06:04 PM (74ZYB)
Posted by: Tex Lovera at March 08, 2016 06:04 PM (2Nm15)
-----
Adam Baldwin came back to me, you can too. I love you Ace.
Posted by: Twitter at March 08, 2016 06:06 PM (6n332)
Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (xq1UY)
Although he has a very large chance of saying something like: "Ich habe grosse hande. Sie sind edel."
Posted by: Aetius451AD at March 08, 2016 06:06 PM (iHjB5)
Posted by: Phone of kari at March 08, 2016 06:06 PM (HWxdx)
Posted by: Ralph at March 08, 2016 06:06 PM (rmJzs)
as you said before, you understand completely why people support Trump.
They are all crazy.
Posted by: Illiniwek at March 08, 2016 06:06 PM (eUbDe)
Posted by: Make America Great Again at March 08, 2016 06:06 PM (NIQco)
Posted by: Ralph at March 08, 2016 06:06 PM (rmJzs)
***
BUT I HEARD HE GOT A LOAN FROM A BANK ONCE!!!!!111
Posted by: T at March 08, 2016 06:07 PM (1Dc9T)
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 06:02 PM (89I+i)
--
Look how many WTA states there are.
Also, remember, the delegates that are bound to candidates who drop out will go to Cruz.
Cruz (or whoever comes out nearest Trump in delegates if Trump doesn't break 1237) will get all of those delegates. ALL OF THEM. Delegates are party activists. They will know which way the wind is blowing.
By July, Donald might not even be able to count on his own delegates not slipping the leash.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 06:08 PM (74ZYB)
Posted by: grandmalcaesar at March 08, 2016 06:08 PM (yrohn)
>>They are all crazy.
Not crazy. Just willing to ignore facts whenever they are inconvenient.
Posted by: JackStraw at March 08, 2016 06:08 PM (/tuJf)
Perhaps some political history geek can correct me:
* vice-presidential choices have never been shown (with confidence) to have affected the outcome of an election
*head-to-head preference GOP/Dem surveys done in the early months of election years have predicted exactly zero winners since they have been done (i.e., leader in Jan/Feb/March actually wins general election)
Either I'm wrong about these things, or this cycle they happen for the first time (possible), or ...... lotsa pixels and electrons being kilt around here over meaningless questions.
Posted by: rhomboid at March 08, 2016 06:09 PM (QDnY+)
Posted by: steevy at March 08, 2016 06:09 PM (B48dK)
Posted by: steevy at March 08, 2016 06:09 PM (B48dK)
It can't happen. They are both from the South.
It will be necessary for Ted to choose a VP that appeals to the west and
especially is acceptable to the east coast. I'm at a loss. Kashic, yes,
that's the ticket.
Posted by: Ralph at March 08, 2016 05:49 PM (rmJzs)
----Tell Clinton/Gore, Bush/Cheney or even Obama/Biden how important regional balance is.
The best VP pick for Cruz would be Haley. Between those two, Rubio is a better option. He's the strongest numbers of any Republican in GE and Kasich Goldman Sachs and Bush administration ties scare the heck out of me in a GE, especially when Cruz also has them.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 06:10 PM (89I+i)
Posted by: steevy at March 08, 2016 06:11 PM (B48dK)
Except that as English speakers using an imported-into-English word none of the original foreign language rules of grammar or pronunciation apply anymore. We can pronounce the phrase any way we want. Sure it'd be nice if we were consistent in pronouncing it either in standard English fashion or using the correct French form but hey this is English after all and we already have all kinds of weird exceptions and irregularities.
So pronouncing coup de gras as 'coo de grah' is not wrong. It reflects standard usage among English speakers today even if historically it came from a misunderstanding of French pronunciation rules.
And I won't even get into data versus datum versus datums.
Posted by: Maetenloch at March 08, 2016 06:11 PM (pAlYe)
Posted by: steevy at March 08, 2016 06:12 PM (B48dK)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at March 08, 2016 06:13 PM (Wckf4)
Posted by: FenelonSpoke at March 08, 2016 06:14 PM (w4NZ8)
Posted by: Grump928(C) can likewise assert stuff at March 08, 2016 06:14 PM (rwI+c)
Posted by: runner at March 08, 2016 06:15 PM (c6/9Q)
1960.
Posted by: Grump928(C) can likewise assert stuff at March 08, 2016 06:15 PM (rwI+c)
What other person could hang on to lead without paid advertising in the face of tens of millions in negative ads and all the bad publicity of members of his own party badmouthing him?
----------------
The type of person that gets a staggering amount of free media time. Aka, a celebrity.
Posted by: Rich at March 08, 2016 06:16 PM (MIdlN)
Posted by: Grump928(C) says Free Soothie! with purchase of equal or greater value commenter at March 08, 2016 06:16 PM (rwI+c)
Posted by: Aetius451AD at March 08, 2016 05:56 PM (iHjB5)
I've been floating a Cruz/Sanders ticket...because....SMOD...f*ck this shit
Posted by: West Town at March 08, 2016 06:16 PM (Y3C5w)
Oh, oh, oh, can we do -or vs. -our suffixes next, or maybe the American pronunciation of the German "ch" next?
Posted by: Burn the Witch at March 08, 2016 06:16 PM (Wckf4)
Also, remember, the delegates that are bound to candidates who drop out will go to Cruz.
Cruz (or whoever comes out nearest Trump in delegates if Trump doesn't break 1237) will get all of those delegates. ALL OF THEM. Delegates are party activists. They will know which way the wind is blowing.
By July, Donald might not even be able to count on his own delegates not slipping the leash.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 06:08 PM (74ZYB)
Plus the fact that Trump can absolutely implode at any minute...
Posted by: West Town at March 08, 2016 06:18 PM (Y3C5w)
Nixon's VP -> Spiro T. Agnew NJ
Oh, man, let's go with Minnesota.
Posted by: Ralph at March 08, 2016 06:18 PM (rmJzs)
Posted by: West Town at March 08, 2016 06:19 PM (Y3C5w)
Also, remember, the delegates that are bound to candidates who drop out will go to Cruz.
Posted by: TallDave
On the first ballot, delegates have to vote as pledged. Don't think "suspending" your campaign changes that, but don't know what happens if your candidate's name can't be placed in nomination in the first place. Rule 40 or whatever else turns up.
And it's all about the first ballot.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at March 08, 2016 06:20 PM (kdS6q)
Posted by: Headless Body of Agnew at March 08, 2016 06:21 PM (FtrY1)
Posted by: West Town at March 08, 2016 06:18 PM (Y3C5w)
By the same token, we have been saying that for months.
Posted by: Aetius451AD at March 08, 2016 06:21 PM (iHjB5)
Posted by: Ralph at March 08, 2016 06:21 PM (rmJzs)
Posted by: Aetius451AD at March 08, 2016 06:21 PM (iHjB5)
It doesn't happen until it happens...
Posted by: West Town at March 08, 2016 06:22 PM (Y3C5w)
Posted by: that guy that always thinks it's beginning at March 08, 2016 06:22 PM (rwI+c)
Posted by: West Town at March 08, 2016 06:22 PM (Y3C5w)
Posted by: Ralph at March 08, 2016 06:23 PM (rmJzs)
Posted by: Grump928(C) says Free Soothie! at March 08, 2016 06:24 PM (rwI+c)
Remember, Trump lost Maine by double-digits even with Kasich and
Rubio still in the race, and he's still falling. I'm not sure we can
assume he takes NY (WTM) or even NJ (last primary day) in a two-man
race.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 06:04 PM (74ZYB)
-----You're misinformed. The only pure WTA states will be AZ - 58, CT -25 (if above 50%), DE - 16, NE -36, MT - 27.
That's 162, not even close to 700.
You're counting with the delegates of states like PA, NY, NJ, CA, IN, etc, that are WTM - most delegates are allocated by CD, others to the state-wide winner.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 06:26 PM (89I+i)
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/ PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160303-20160308/type/day
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian at March 08, 2016 06:27 PM (3dOE/)
Posted by: BeckoningChasm at March 08, 2016 06:29 PM (AroJD)
Look how many WTA states there are.
Also, remember, the delegates that are bound to candidates who drop out will go to Cruz.
Cruz (or whoever comes out nearest Trump in delegates if Trump
doesn't break 1237) will get all of those delegates. ALL OF THEM.
Delegates are party activists. They will know which way the wind is
blowing.
By July, Donald might not even be able to count on his own delegates not slipping the leash.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 06:08 PM (74ZYB)
----
You're wrong about the number of WTA states. Most of those states you're calling WTA only allocate 10 at-large delegates to the state winner. The majority will be similar to IL or ID today.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 06:30 PM (89I+i)
Posted by: Wooded Pecker at March 08, 2016 06:31 PM (qul7b)
Posted by: Aetius451AD at March 08, 2016 06:34 PM (iHjB5)
Posted by: Rich at March 08, 2016 06:16 PM (MIdlN)
------------
Ah, the old "winning the culture" gambit? Never been tried in the GOP, no data to compare it to.
Posted by: BunkerinTheBurbs at March 08, 2016 06:34 PM (bA+CL)
Posted by: tachyonshuggy at March 08, 2016 06:35 PM (vpmxf)
Progress.
Posted by: Lower Class person whose opinions need to be guided at March 08, 2016 06:37 PM (3ZttN)
On his website he says that Congress can end run Roe by enacting a law to declare a fetus to be a person. That's asking for trouble in the general. Sorry but true. It'll get him borked if he ever goes for SCOTUS
Trump doesn't care about abortion. Most Evangelicals seem to be fine with that
Posted by: Ignoramus at March 08, 2016 06:39 PM (bX+jH)
Trump doesn't care about abortion. Most Evangelicals seem to be fine with that
Posted by: Ignoramus at March 08, 2016 06:39 PM (bX+jH)
---
Net favorable among evangelicals
Kasich +12Rubio +7Cruz +10Trump -17Hillary -25
https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/707328937408512001
What part of Trump's 70% unfavorables people don't get?
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 06:44 PM (89I+i)
Posted by: redbanzai at March 08, 2016 06:47 PM (NPofj)
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 06:08 PM (74ZYB)
No one will past the first ballot.
Posted by: redbanzai at March 08, 2016 06:48 PM (NPofj)
At least the poseurs i hang out with don't mispronounce cliched French phrases.
Posted by: Jose Ruiz at March 08, 2016 06:49 PM (Pl1FV)
On his website he says that Congress can end run Roe by enacting a
law to declare a fetus to be a person. That's asking for trouble in the
general. Sorry but true. It'll get him borked if he ever goes for SCOTUS
Trump doesn't care about abortion. Most Evangelicals seem to be fine with that
Posted by: Ignoramus at March 08, 2016 06:39 PM (bX+jH)
No we are really not.
Posted by: redbanzai at March 08, 2016 06:49 PM (NPofj)
Posted by: Pappy O'Daniel at March 08, 2016 06:50 PM (oVJmc)
Fuse
Snooze
Booze
News
Dues
Views
Posted by: FenelonSpoke at March 08, 2016 06:14 PM (w4NZ
Also
Choose
Blues
Queues
and
Avenues
Posted by: redbanzai at March 08, 2016 06:54 PM (NPofj)
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at March 08, 2016 05:09 PM (8ZskC)
His mom and people like his mom.
Posted by: redbanzai at March 08, 2016 06:56 PM (NPofj)
Posted by: burke at March 08, 2016 06:57 PM (dsrlq)
Posted by: Ignoramus at March 08, 2016 07:13 PM (bX+jH)
Posted by: x at March 08, 2016 07:14 PM (nFwvY)
1. open primary, so cross over voters galore
2. i meet Trump supporters, in all walks of life, ever day in my very blue part of Lost Angels...and this is the part of town where they look at you as if you're a child molester if you say you're a conservative or a Republican
From a Californian, that is not true. California is a closed primary for president for Republicans. The proposition that was passed for the "jungle primary" only applies to non-presidential elections.
Posted by: Big D at March 08, 2016 07:16 PM (SPmlI)
Posted by: simple mind at March 08, 2016 07:16 PM (dMB3r)
National polls irrelevant, unless Trump goes 0-4 tonight, because after tonight, almost half the States will have voted in/on.
And the States that are left, favor Trump. If you had a one-day election, all 50 states, tomorrow, you might have something.
That being said, and this is from a Trump supporter, he's been off-message since at least the SC Debate.
He needs to slow the fuck down, get back to talking economic populism and foreign-policy realism, and start acting more like he's on a job interview, and less like he's holding court at the Carnegie Deli in 1977 (not NO dick jokes but LESS dick jokes).
Or he'll almost certainly still win the Nomination, but the General Election and keeping the Senate can kiss their ass goodbye.
Posted by: trickamsterdam at March 08, 2016 07:25 PM (kO7oz)
So the fact that 7 or 9% of voters who were going to vote for Carson now cannot, just redistributes the pie. Since Trump's numbers have budged only slightly, he hasn't lost any supporters, he just didn't gain any of Carson's or very few of Carson's.
Florida is full of people who love Trump in the north (he won Alabama and Georgia with good margins) and ex-New Yorkers. Expect him to do well there. Cruz doesn't have much of a presence.
Posted by: K-E at March 08, 2016 07:31 PM (X6fya)
Posted by: A Turkey Liver at March 08, 2016 07:36 PM (g1MTt)
--
This is why I keep saying the late states are so important to a two-man race. If Trump doesn't gain any more ground -- and he's been losing it -- there are 750+ delegates available to a candidate who is taking 60% of the vote.
Unfortunately there are also maybe 700 votes available to a candidate who wins all the WTA states with 40%.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 07:42 PM (74ZYB)
Plus my uncanny ability to attract crossover voters. Eat your heart out Donald!
Posted by: Ted Cruz at March 08, 2016 07:42 PM (GATbt)
Great analysis. He is losing support because he's backing off immigration. That was his huuuuge issue and he gets support from across the board with it.
I lived in Southern CA for almost 30 years. I can see lots of people liking Trump. He would pull from the Dems there, but I don't think that's possible in the primary.
Who the hell thought Carson voters would go to Trump? Carson got the decency voters and the religious voters. Trump is too vulgar and too pro abortion to get them.
Posted by: Tammy al-Thor at March 08, 2016 07:42 PM (jbvsI)
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 06:30 PM (89I+i)
-------
You're confusing WTM with WTA.
Google wiki GOP primary, scroll down.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 07:44 PM (74ZYB)
And the States that are left, favor Trump.
Posted by: trickamsterdam at March 08, 2016 07:25 PM (kO7oz)
***
According to that poll at least, voters in states that have not yet voted are less pro-Donald than the national average. Something like DT 27%; TC 26%; JK 22%; MR 20%. Too lazy to track it down, though.
Also, just realized Kasich really, truly is, and always will be, "JK."
Posted by: T at March 08, 2016 07:49 PM (1Dc9T)
There are those "loans" from the Wall Street banks. That was a dirty business. He wanted to hide the fact that his campaign was being financed by the Wall Street banks. So, the $1,000,000 was characterized as sweetheart loans from the banks to Ted personally. Then Ted took those proceeds and immediately turned around and lent that same money to his own campaign. Then in the FEC disclosure form he reported the $1,000,000 as a loan from Ted to his own campaign. So, he lied twice. Once to the FEC when he characterized the Wall Street money as coming from himself. Then again when he claimed it was just an oversight. It wasn't an oversight. He didn't forget about the 1,000,000 from Wall Street. He reported it. He just reported it falsely.
Posted by: tommylotto at March 08, 2016 07:52 PM (A3a8d)
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 06:26 PM (89I+i)
--
California is WTA at both the state and the CD level. Yes, a candidate has to win every district to get every delegate, but if someone wins 60/40 statewide, they will likely will take every CD.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 07:53 PM (74ZYB)
Cruz got a loan against his brokerage account, one that was very small relative to his campaign. Anyone can do this.
He reported it in one disclosure form, but not another. If he was trying to hide it, he wasn't trying very hard.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 07:55 PM (74ZYB)
You're confusing WTM with WTA.
Google wiki GOP primary, scroll down.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 07:44 PM (74ZYB)
-----
Again, you're the one confusing. What states do you believe are WTA? Just those five I mentioned.
California is WTA at both the state and the CD
level. Yes, a candidate has to win every district to get every
delegate, but if someone wins 60/40 statewide, they will likely will
take every CD.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 07:53 PM (74ZYB)
-------
There's far more variation between districts than you seem to believe.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 07:59 PM (89I+i)
The late states will matter a lot, even at only 55% the winning candidate in a two-man race probably gets 750+ delegates after March 15th.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 08:02 PM (74ZYB)
--
There's far more variation between districts than you seem to believe.
Posted by: Alabi at March 08, 2016 07:59 PM (89I+i)
-------
Go read the wikipedia page, every state's status is listed there.
There is a lot of variation between CA districts in a general election. In a primary... well, go back and look at past primary contests.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 08:04 PM (74ZYB)
Trump: 27%
Cruz: 25%
Kasich 24%
Rubio 23%
+++++
Kasich with 25%? Bwaaaah. Ssstt..stt.sstop it Establishment Fucks, you're killing us here.
Posted by: oddnot not liking these times at March 08, 2016 08:08 PM (g1MTt)
2008: McCain won nearly every CA delegate
2000: W took won every delegate despite getting only 52%
Most primaries end with a string of strong victories by the eventual winner. This one might be different, but that probably only happens if Rubio or Kasich become competitive through the end while Donald fails to gain or lose strength.
Posted by: TallDave at March 08, 2016 08:11 PM (74ZYB)
Posted by: Ross Douchethat at March 08, 2016 10:31 PM (4QW48)
Put it this way: You have poll takers with an interest in bringing down Trump. Professional poll takers who know how to manipulate the numbers, manipulate the samples, manipulate the population of their samples. Hence, you get nonsense polls that are politically coordinated to get people to vote one way or another.
Posted by: doug at March 08, 2016 11:54 PM (yZE8B)
There was a reason Cruz wanted to sweep the south - namely because that is where he would have been able to beat Trump one against one.
Posted by: doug at March 08, 2016 11:59 PM (yZE8B)
No, Trump's support has been the strongest in the South. Cruz has run strongest in the Plains and West, so far.
Posted by: TallDave at March 09, 2016 01:43 AM (74ZYB)
Processing 0.04, elapsed 0.0472 seconds.
15 queries taking 0.0155 seconds, 398 records returned.
Page size 205 kb.
Powered by Minx 0.8 beta.
Real Clear Politics
Gallup
Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement
Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band
AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection
AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings)
George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an F*ckin' Hammer
Democratic Forays into Erotica
New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network
Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really Hate Potatoes
Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse
Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party"
Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad
Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up
Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry
NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom
Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?"
Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind
All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd
Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran
Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore
Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery
Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile
Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance
Collective Names for Groups of People
John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets
Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle
Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy
Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive"
Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments
John Edwards Campaign Excuses
John Kerry Pick-Up Lines
Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney
Torments in Dog-Hell
The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)