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Liberal Poll Analyst: Nate Silver: Trump Has Re-taken the Lead in the Election

Harris had pulled ahead, but now, perhaps, the "joy dividend" from her coup is fading, and non-joyous reality once again dominates people's thinking.

The Joyful One had pulled ahead in Silver's forecast earlier. And he still thinks she's likely to win the national popular vote -- but not by so much as to lock up the electoral college.

Silver thinks it's meaningful that the latest poll from tipping-state Pennsylvania -- the state which will be the key state whose winner will win the election -- shows Harris in a tie with Trump. That may not sound great (and I don't think it is great), but I guess he thinks this is Harris's high-water mark, and if she still can't manage to get a poll showing her in the lead in Pennsylvania, she will probably lose it, as the "Joy" fades.

PJMedia's Matt Margolis digests Silver's new forecast:

[N]ate Silver's famous election projection model has Trump ahead for the first time in weeks.

That is a nearly ten-point swing in Trump's favor in the projection model in just a couple of weeks. Even Silver is trying to calm down his leftist readers.

"Although we wouldn't advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way -- it's not a big difference -- this wasn't a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," he wrote. "There's one big reason for that -- Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it's been quite a while since we've seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today)."

He continued:


The model is also applying a convention bounce adjustment to Harris's recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that's the right assumption. But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along. There's now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.

NOTE: Eric Blade says these "huge" swings "can't be real."

But the 10-point swing Silver is talking about is not a poll swing -- it's a swing in the ODDS based on his analysis of the polls. The polls have swung about five points.

If someone was at 48-52 and then gains four points to 52-48, that produces a bigger swing in the odds of winning than the actual poll movement.

This is a normal mid-to-middle-high bounce. This is not some huge bounce for Harris.

And Trump gaining a little ground isn't "huge," either. It's normal to see a normal bounce mostly fade.

I'm not so sanguine. Pro-Trump site MXMNews is hyping the fact that Trump now leads Harris with Independent voters, but the Republican almost always leads with independent voters. The question is: By how much? By a little or by enough to swing the election? Right now the lead, 42-37, is "a little."

I'm a bit depressed over the fact that Trump world considers this good news. Is this the best polling they can point to?

I hope Silver is closer-to-right.

Meanwhile:

Noted Hollywood Nepo-Baby Ben Stiller says he's voting the way he is because "it's time for a change," and so, of course, he supports the incumbent.

That's how you make change, baby.

Tropic Thunder was autobiographical, TheJamesMadison says.

Posted by: Disinformation Expert Ace at 04:40 PM




Comments

(Jump to bottom of comments)

1 Doubt he ever was 2nd

Posted by: Skip at August 29, 2024 04:42 PM (fwDg9)

2 Noted Hollywood Nepo-Baby Ben Stiller says he's voting the way he is because "it's time for a change," and so, of course, he supports the incumbent.

========

Tropic Thunder was autobiography.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, reminiscing about lost times with Orson Welles at August 29, 2024 04:42 PM (GBKbO)

3 Maths!! Ieeee!

Posted by: Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle at August 29, 2024 04:43 PM (54gon)

4 I don't know enough about polling to know if we're close enough to the election for this to mean something.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at August 29, 2024 04:43 PM (tT6L1)

5 Ben Stiller went full retard.

Posted by: Thomas Bender at August 29, 2024 04:44 PM (XV/Pl)

6 Funny what happens when you don't poll +44% Dims.

Posted by: andycanuck (CEzQx) at August 29, 2024 04:44 PM (CEzQx)

7 just listened to an excerpt of Kamala's interview with Dana - word salad on her IRA and green new deal. Walz nodding his head like a donkey.

Posted by: IC - #FJB at August 29, 2024 04:44 PM (ZtyUu)

8 We need to vote against Trump in order to undo the horrors of the last four years!!!

Posted by: Ben Stiller at August 29, 2024 04:44 PM (MhIOm)

9 >>>Tropic Thunder was autobiography.

"Simple Jack."

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:45 PM (KRtlO)

10 Silver thinks it's meaningful that the latest poll from tipping-state Pennsylvania -- the state which will be the key state whose winner will win the election -- shows Harris in a tie with Trump.

Revenge, Josh Shapiro.

This is your time for Revenge.

Remember, if Kamala loses, there will be an open field for the Democratic nomination in 2028.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 29, 2024 04:45 PM (uxCna)

11 It really bugs me that I can't see the abscissa and ordinate units on the two Nate Silver plots. What span of time is covered? Do they run from zero to 100? Arghhhh.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 29, 2024 04:45 PM (xCA6C)

12 Though, I do believe any poll which had Harris ahead was designed to create a narrative rather than reflect reality.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at August 29, 2024 04:45 PM (tT6L1)

13 Trump can absolutely win this election. The economic state of affairs should be enough.

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 04:45 PM (PCK5/)

14 Now they are talking about NC since there are fraud measures in place in GA.

When I first read that eternal vigilance is needed to secure liberty I didn't realize how true it is.

Posted by: WinLinBSDAdmin at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (7S8bd)

15
If Nate Silver says Trump is ahead, I'm getting nervous.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (1Nxff)

16 12 Though, I do believe any poll which had Harris ahead was designed to create a narrative rather than reflect reality.
Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at August 29, 2024 04:45 PM (tT6L1)

========

"Well, she was definitely ahead in August."

"Why?"

"The polls said so."

"Why should I believe the polls in August?"

"What else do you have?"

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, reminiscing about lost times with Orson Welles at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (GBKbO)

17 " Nate Silver: Trump Has Re-taken the Lead in the Election"

And here comes Beetle Bomb!

Posted by: fd at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (vFG9F)

18 Kamala says ' Climate is an urgent matter to which we should apply metric to include holding ourselves to deadlines around time'.

Wut?

Posted by: IC - #FJB at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (ZtyUu)

19 These mewling fucks do the same shit every cycle

same shit

fuck around with the numbers until it starts to get closer to election and then OH GEEE GOLLY WHIZ THE RACE IS TIGHTENING AFTER ALL

fuck off

Posted by: The Unvaxed and Unmasked Ranger - Esteemed Trump Ho And Yearner for Zooey Deschanel's Bosom at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (DBZuM)

20 14 Now they are talking about NC since there are fraud measures in place in GA.

When I first read that eternal vigilance is needed to secure liberty I didn't realize how true it is.
Posted by: WinLinBSDAdmin at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (7S8bd)

=======

The supermajority of Republicans in the NC legislature forced through a bunch of election integrity measures over the veto of the Democrat governor.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, reminiscing about lost times with Orson Welles at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (GBKbO)

21 Elections are so darn cute!

Posted by: Stateless at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (jvJvP)

22 The celebrities have mostly gone Marxists, I can only guess they can buy themselves out of what they vote for

Posted by: Skip at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (fwDg9)

23 Ben Stiller likes fat chicks with big bewbs.
So he's half right.

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (v0R5T)

24 What is a Beetle Bomb??

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (PCK5/)

25 Polls are bullshit, the election is going to turn on if Trump can turn out more live voters than the donks ballot harvesting apparatus can generate.

The election is going to be tighter than a farmers daughters fart clam.

Posted by: Thomas Bender at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (XV/Pl)

26 Dem voters have a chance to destroy the Republican party* by voting for Trump.

*The tamed, compromised, lackey wing of the party.

Posted by: Chuck Martel at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (KKwAl)

27 I don't think Harris has ever led in the EC for a nanosecond. The gaslighting has been off the charts. I also don't think that matter one bit unless Trump's margin is large enough in the pivotal states to overcome broken water pipes.

Posted by: Trump poisoned my cat at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (KSNKu)

28 Political Polls @PpollingNumbers
#New General Election poll - Michigan
🔴 Trump 50%
🔵 Harris 50%

Bad Hombre @joma_gc
She’s cooked. This is a Democrat pollster oversampling Dems by 15.

Brittany Rae @legitbrittFLA Replying to @joma_gc
It's actually a D + 25 and Hamas is in that thread laughing their ass off

ActiVote #N/A - 400 LV - 8/28 Empty @bucketsofempty
Replying to @PpollingNumbers
Aug 28, 2024 · 8:45 PM UTC

https://tinyurl.com/547paem8
[Dims +25% chart!!!]

Andy - It is even worse. Their raw sample in the poll was D+44.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at August 28, 2024 09:28 PM

Their raw sample was also 64% male to 36% female. Do women just not want to talk about this election?
Posted by: mikeski at August 28, 2024 09:40 PM

Posted by: andycanuck (CEzQx) at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (CEzQx)

29 I am fairly certain that kamala harris never had a lead in any legitimate poll. That was just gaslighting by the media and liberal polling outfits.


I saw one poll out of Michigan this week that had a D16+ sample.


They are not being serious.

Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at August 29, 2024 04:48 PM (QNSds)

30 So, you know, I’ve been hearing about you incredible commenters for quite some time from the Ace and the CoBs, who are bringing joy to everybody in the AoSHQ comment sections. And so we wanted to come by just to let you know that our country is counting on you. All of you.

You are leaders. By the very fact that you all are here on this blog, doing what you do at this incredible blog, doing it as one big team, understanding all of the different parts that fit together to create a team. You are doing some of the best work anybody can do. And we are so proud of you. We are counting on you. Your under-29 generation, all that you guys stand for, everything you have at stake, is what is going to propel our country into the next era of what we can do and what we can do.

And I want to say to you that you must always comment as you have chosen to comment. Understand you don’t have to ask anybody’s permission to comment. And I think you all figured that out. You’ve decided to be a commenter. And in doing that, you are also commenters, right? Welcome to the commenter club!

Sometimes you win the First, sometimes you may not, right? But all those attempts makes for beautiful threads!

Posted by: Harris & Walz at August 29, 2024 04:48 PM (a3Q+t)

31 Nate Silver is a sh)tlib grifter

Why post his feckless garbage?

Just after the 1984 Democrat convention, Mondale was + 2

Get real, ace

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at August 29, 2024 04:48 PM (dGRTS)

32 25 Polls are bullshit, the election is going to turn on if Trump can turn out more live voters than the donks ballot harvesting apparatus can generate.

The election is going to be tighter than a farmers daughters fart clam.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (XV/Pl)

=======

I think some states are going to see massive polling misses. But it won't be uniform, even regionally, for some reason.

Those states that finish counting early will show surprising strength from Trump that the polls didn't show. Those states that take weeks to count fewer ballots will show that we actually live in a 50/50 nation that really just wants more Biden but without Biden.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, reminiscing about lost times with Orson Welles at August 29, 2024 04:48 PM (GBKbO)

33 Harris is always in there, pulling.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 04:48 PM (krQz2)

34 This is definitely gonna be a roller coaster

Posted by: It's me donna at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (IyPmt)

35 Harris needs to get out in public and make the case for why people should vote for her.

Heh.

Posted by: Chuck Martel at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (KKwAl)

36
Millions of women will impoverish their fellow citizens, have them overrun by illegal migrants and be incinerated in a nuclear war just so they can have full-term abortions.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (1Nxff)

37 I haven't seen so much statistical bullsh*t since my Forecasting courses in grad school.

Posted by: San Franpsycho at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (RIvkX)

38 >>>Posted by: Harris & Walz

hah, i'll post this with those fake letters.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (KRtlO)

39 Trump can absolutely win this election. The economic state of affairs should be enough.

****************

It should be enough, but IF he loses or its close its because of women

all they care about is abortionZZZzzzzzzz

literally nothing else matters, not the economy, not inflation, not the border, not crime, not the threat of nuclear war

its all about MUH ABORTIONZ

Posted by: The Unvaxed and Unmasked Ranger - Esteemed Trump Ho And Yearner for Zooey Deschanel's Bosom at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (DBZuM)

40 So - people aren't really like this, are they? It's not like they had no idea who Trump or Harris were two weeks ago. These swings in polls are entirely made up, you know that they are...just like you can't convince that idiot cousin to not vote Dems in the Fall, you aren't changing the mind of the Horde - that leaves independents and leaners - which have to be, like two people at this stage of the game. Who cares!

These whip saws in the polls are completely and wholly manufactured by pollsters who get paid for...WHIPSAWS! It's all dumb - this race, other than cheating, was decided a year ago.

Posted by: Boswell at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (K+UlC)

41 What is a Beetle Bomb??
Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 04:47 PM (PCK5/)
------------

William Tell Overture with a voice over of a horse race.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (tT6L1)

42 Dem voters have a chance to destroy the Republican party* by voting for Trump.

*The tamed, compromised, lackey wing of the party.

They will not be missed.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (xCA6C)

43 On this day in 2020, Biden was up by 5.6% in the polling average in PA.
Final polling average was 4.7.

Current average is 1.3 for Harris.

Last poll:
8/25-28 950 LV by Emerson has it even.

That's after over a month of massive propaganda, her announcing her VP in PA, several rallies by her in PA; their convention and .... tied.

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at August 29, 2024 04:50 PM (rK75L)

44 @22

>>The celebrities have mostly gone Marxists, I can only guess they can buy themselves out of what they vote for

Ehh, they work in an industry that has been captured by the left and if you don't toe the line, you ain't working, period.

Most of their nonsense is self defense.

Although there are particular c**ts like Mark Hamill and Ron Perlman who rise above in their viciousness and bile.

Posted by: Thomas Bender at August 29, 2024 04:50 PM (XV/Pl)

45 Millions of women will impoverish their fellow citizens, have them overrun by illegal migrants and be incinerated in a nuclear war just so they can have full-term abortions.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (1Nxff)
--------------

Sounds like they want to increase market share.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at August 29, 2024 04:50 PM (tT6L1)

46 "Tropic Thunder was autobiographical, TheJamesMadison says."
---
Never go full retard.

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at August 29, 2024 04:50 PM (7fElN)

47 I thought it was Feetlebaum...old Spike Jones bit.

Posted by: skywch at August 29, 2024 04:51 PM (uqhmb)

48
But... but... 200 GOPe staffers!!

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 04:51 PM (1Nxff)

49 Baby Ben Stiller says he's voting the way he is because "it's time for a change,"
-----

Wait a minute...isn't this the guy who got his dick caught in his zipper?

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at August 29, 2024 04:51 PM (XeU6L)

50 These polls can’t be right — no matter who they favor — if they keep bouncing around like this. Such huge swings in a matter of weeks can’t possibly be the result of any genuine voter sentiment. It has to be the result of polling error, luck, sampling sex, or deliberate malfeasance.

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 29, 2024 04:51 PM (WV8e4)

51 Why do we need change, Kamala? It's YOUR FREAKING ADMINISTRATION.

Posted by: nurse ratched at August 29, 2024 04:51 PM (yHibv)

52 50 These polls can’t be right — no matter who they favor — if they keep bouncing around like this. Such huge swings in a matter of weeks can’t possibly be the result of any genuine voter sentiment. It has to be the result of polling error, luck, sampling sex, or deliberate malfeasance.
Posted by: Elric Blade at August 29, 2024 04:51 PM (WV8e4)

=======

Without any major political event. The only event recently that could have a massive swinging effect was the assassination attempt, and that never happened, it seems.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, reminiscing about lost times with Orson Welles at August 29, 2024 04:51 PM (GBKbO)

53 But... but... 200 GOPe staffers!!

A good start.

Posted by: Just the punchline at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (xCA6C)

54 There's a reason they're not telling us who is running the store in DC.

First of all, Joe never was. So there's no reason to think Kamala would ever need to.

Second of all, within the ruse of a normal presidency, they don't want you to know that Kamala *would* be responsible, because they still want to float the idea that the real test of what Kamala would do happens only after you vote her in.

So she can continue to make campaign promises instead of demonstrating what she is promising.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (krQz2)

55 Stiller plays two roles:

The over-the-top caricature of a heel.

The mewling simp.

It would appear that only one of those is him acting.

Posted by: The Central Scrutinizer at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (KbCG3)

56 "These polls can’t be right — no matter who they favor — if they keep bouncing around like this."

It's an indication someone is deliberately skewing the polls.

Posted by: Ribbed at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (B0mGw)

57
The supermajority of Republicans in the NC legislature forced through a bunch of election integrity measures over the veto of the Democrat governor.

Well, I sure hope the measures hold up then.

Posted by: WinLinBSDAdmin at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (7S8bd)

58 And he still thinks she's likely to win the national popular vote
_________________

WTF can anybody vote for this useless cackling talent-less slut? It's a mystery.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (YqDXo)

59 Pollsters are very unconfident of their polls right now because the only weighting data they have doesn't include the movement of blacks and Hispanics to Trump. All it takes is small chunk of black males to split off from the plantation to eliminate any hope of democrat victory.

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (VP9ao)

60 Get offa my lawn.

Posted by: fd at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (vFG9F)

61 Why do we need change, Kamala? It's YOUR FREAKING ADMINISTRATION.

Clearly someone is burdened by what has been.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (xCA6C)

62 Update from this morning:

Wife's migraine will keep her at home.

I'll see all of you SC Swifties at the concert tonight...

Posted by: The Central Scrutinizer at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (KbCG3)

63
Thunder Road>>Tropic Thunder

Posted by: '50 Ford at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (XeU6L)

64 I shrug no matter what the poll says. If they don't think they can steal it, they'll find a pretext for "postponing" the election. Maybe stick Kamala in there and leave Joe at the beach, and try to pull a Zelenskyy move.

Posted by: Miley, okravangelist at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (w6EFb)

65 I was told there would be no math on this blog.

Posted by: dantesed at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (Oy/m2)

66 It should be enough, but IF he loses or its close its because of women

Because of "Leftist" women. I only know one woman who I'm sure will vote for Harris, but she's always voted for Democrats.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (zgdXM)

67 Antifa would love another four years of running amok, so do they support Trump?

Posted by: Northernlurker , wondering where his phone is at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (u1HM/)

68 >>>Nate Silver is a sh)tlib grifter
Why post his feckless garbage?
Just after the 1984 Democrat convention, Mondale was + 2
Get real, ace
Posted by: SantaRosaStan

there are a lot of polls showing Harris ahead. I don't post them because I don't want to dispirit conservatives. But if you don't believe me, and are going to insult me, I can post them. Would you like that?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/
president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

Get real, dude.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (KRtlO)

69 National Poll: Harris by 7.2%. Big Village (8/28/24): Recognized Poll on 538

Likely Voters: Head-to-Head
Harris 50.4%
Trump 43.2%

The trend is great! This is a poll that had Trump +12 over Biden several weeks ago.

it's about the TRENDS, not really about the specific margins. EVERY trend has been in the Democratic ticket's favor, since Joe announced his stand-down. We need red states to show they "might" swing blue. Like Ohio, Texas, NC.

SCOTUS killing Roe 2 years ago SHOULD have major impacts. We have to hope that Harris and/or Walz do not make any unforced errors as they continue campaigning. And DISCOUNT all Rasmussen poll numbers completely.

this doesn't feel like 2016, I feel a lot of dems voted for Clinton while holding their nose (including me), this time, lay the glass shards down, I'm crawling through them to vote FOR Kamala, not against trump. I feel more of a run up the score feeling here! Let's kick his ass!

Trump weirdo voters left with few alternatives now that RFK Jr. is out. Looks like they're choosing to STAY HOME!

Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (JCZqz)

70 Ben Stiller on why he's voting for Kamala Harris: "I believe it's time for change"
_________________

I agree. Which is why I want the Democrats out of power.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 04:54 PM (YqDXo)

71 msn is leading with an article claiming that harris is trailing in the polls based on historical data and possibly fake polling, but mostly fake polling.

In 2016 clinton was up by 5 points over Trump in August, just sayin.

Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at August 29, 2024 04:54 PM (QNSds)

72 But... but... 200 GOPe staffers!!

Including secretaries and interns.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 29, 2024 04:54 PM (uxCna)

73 I've come to terms with the fact that our country is dead set on destroying itself.

No one can claim any type of ignorance. All of the masks are off.

If the country elects Kamala, it has decided that an accelerated death is better than a prosperous life.

There's not much anyone can do to save someone intent on killing themselves.

Posted by: The Central Scrutinizer at August 29, 2024 04:54 PM (KbCG3)

74 Baby Ben Stiller says he's voting the way he is because "it's time for a change,"
-----

Wait a minute...isn't this the guy who got his dick caught in his zipper?
Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc.
....

When I need political advice, I always look to the idiot with his dick stuck in his zipper.

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 04:54 PM (v0R5T)

75 EVERY trend has been in the Democratic ticket's favor, since Joe announced his stand-down.

You misspelled defenestration.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 29, 2024 04:54 PM (xCA6C)

76 FIRST!!!!!

Posted by: Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (Zz0t1)

77 Millions of women will impoverish their fellow citizens, have them overrun by illegal migrants and be incinerated in a nuclear war just so they can have full-term abortions.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (1Nxff)
---
Weaponized feminine sympathy and selfishness is one hell of a combination.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (krQz2)

78 @32

>>I think some states are going to see massive polling misses. But it won't be uniform, even regionally, for some reason.

I think Trump is going to get in excess of 75million votes, he might touch 80million, can the donks generate enough fake votes, in enough locales to swing the election?

As I've noted, Pa has over 700k of what it calls, inactive voters.

What's an inactive voter and why would you have that many people on that list, beats the shit out of me, but that's an awful large ballot couch cushion.

Posted by: Thomas Bender at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (XV/Pl)

79 "Trump weirdo voters left with few alternatives now that RFK Jr. is out. Looks like they're choosing to STAY HOME!"

You have the logic of a syphilitic house cat.

Posted by: Ribbed at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (B0mGw)

80 I don't believe the fluctuations in the polls. Government employees, NGOs and the vast moocher population are going to vote their rice bowls, which are filled by the left. They ain't going anywhere, nor are their fortified ballots.

Posted by: Field Marshal Zhukov at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (wBaIH)

81 >>>50 These polls can’t be right — no matter who they favor — if they keep bouncing around like this. Such huge swings in a matter of weeks can’t possibly be the result of any genuine voter sentiment. It has to be the result of polling error, luck, sampling sex, or deliberate malfeasance.

these aren't huge swings, they're bounces for Harris, after the convention, which is when you'd expect a bounce.

If you're talking about the 10-point swing Silver is talking about, that's not a poll swing, that's a swing in the ODDS based on his analysis of the polls. The polls have swung about five points.

Five points is not so "huge" after a convention.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (KRtlO)

82 ago.

it's about the TRENDS, not really about the specific margins. EVERY trend has been in the Democratic ticket's favor, since Joe announced his stand-down. We need red states to show they "might" swing blue. Like Ohio, Texas, N


Sure Texas and Ohio are going blue !

Posted by: It's me donna at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (IyPmt)

83 Seems like the Whoris Honeymoon may be over; now it's back to working the streets and getting on her knees, I guess.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (ynpvh)

84 Silver says he'll vote for KamalaLamaDingDong. Just sayin.

Posted by: Cannibal Bob... who has kettles full of Joy. at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (O5hrI)

85 Ben Stiller is proof that hollywood retards that can regurgitate other people's thoughts in a moderately entertaining way does NOT mean they have an ounce of brain activity whatsoever.

Posted by: Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (Zz0t1)

86 These polls can’t be right — no matter who they favor — if they keep bouncing around like this. Such huge swings in a matter of weeks can’t possibly be the result of any genuine voter sentiment. It has to be the result of polling error, luck, sampling sex, or deliberate malfeasance.
Posted by: Elric Blade at August 29, 2024 04:51 PM (WV8e4)

=======

Without any major political event. The only event recently that could have a massive swinging effect was the assassination attempt, and that never happened, it seems.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, reminiscing about lost times with Orson Welles at August 29, 2024 04:51 PM (GBKbO)
———

Exactly. Genuine voters can’t possibly change their minds so much and so quickly without any major stimulus. Especially when probably 90-95% of voters are dead-set on their vote no matter what.

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (WV8e4)

87 64 I shrug no matter what the poll says. If they don't think they can steal it, they'll find a pretext for "postponing" the election. Maybe stick Kamala in there and leave Joe at the beach, and try to pull a Zelenskyy move.

Posted by: Miley, okravangelist at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (w6EFb)

There is a sentencing hearing in two weeks. What happens then will be determined by focus groups and recent polls.

Posted by: Trump poisoned my cat at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (KSNKu)

88 Duncanthrax, you are my hero.

Posted by: nurse ratched at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (iOaee)

89 The trend is great!

it's about the TRENDS,
......

and the tethers.

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (v0R5T)

90 there are a lot of polls showing Harris ahead. I don't post them because I don't want to dispirit conservatives.

I post them, but mostly because the DU comments regarding them are super-extra retarded. Like We need red states to show they "might" swing blue. Like Ohio, Texas, NC.

I think most here are savvy enough to know things will shift a lot between now and November...just like every election year.

Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (JCZqz)

91 I was told there would be no math on this blog.

Posted by: dantesed at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (Oy/m2)

You clearly never read the terms and conditions. Moose out front shoulda told ya.

Posted by: Miley, okravangelist at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (w6EFb)

92 79 "Trump weirdo voters left with few alternatives now that RFK Jr. is out. Looks like they're choosing to STAY HOME!"

You have the logic of a syphilitic house cat.

Posted by: Ribbed at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (B0mGw)

Who also got monkeypox from that french poodle.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (ynpvh)

93 It should be enough, but IF he loses or its close its because of women

Because of "Leftist" women. I only know one woman who I'm sure will vote for Harris, but she's always voted for Democrats.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (zgdXM)
_______________

But for women voting, the Democrat Party would never win another election.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (YqDXo)

94 It should be enough, but IF he loses or its close its because of women

Voters are not stealing our elections.

Posted by: t-bird at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (KBusA)

95 We'll know a lot more after John McCain's funeral is finished.

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (VP9ao)

96 The oxygen for the Harris bounce was pretty much removed when RFK threw his support to PDT, I suspect.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (tT6L1)

97 57
The supermajority of Republicans in the NC legislature forced through a bunch of election integrity measures over the veto of the Democrat governor.

Well, I sure hope the measures hold up then.
Posted by: WinLinBSDAdmin
------

Yeah, well, with guys like this running show....

"NC special deputy attorney general exposed himself to traffic on Glenwood Avenue, arrest warrant says
Torrey Dixon faces one count of indecent exposure and two counts of being intoxicated and disruptive."

Mug shot: t.ly/PhO_D

Posted by: '50 Ford at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (XeU6L)

98 I do know that people I associate with all complain about the cost of living and illegals. I admit I do not know elites and the education/government set. I just know the other sort.

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (PCK5/)

99 Let's not start changing each other's clocks just yet

Posted by: Don Black at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (/7KEl)

100 89 The trend is great!

it's about the TRENDS,
......

and the tethers.

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (v0R5T)

Kinky.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (ynpvh)

101 40 So - people aren't really like this, are they? It's not like they had no idea who Trump or Harris were two weeks ago. These swings in polls are entirely made up, you know that they are...just like you can't convince that idiot cousin to not vote Dems in the Fall, you aren't changing the mind of the Horde - that leaves independents and leaners - which have to be, like two people at this stage of the game. Who cares!

These whip saws in the polls are completely and wholly manufactured by pollsters who get paid for...WHIPSAWS! It's all dumb - this race, other than cheating, was decided a year ago.
Posted by: Boswell at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (K+UlC)

It's a lot of not politically connected younger voters...

Posted by: Nova Local at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (exHjb)

102 "Trump weirdo voters left with few alternatives now that RFK Jr. is out. Looks like they're choosing to STAY HOME!"
_______________

Sure. Because voting hasn't started yet. Duh.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (YqDXo)

103 "Who also got monkeypox from that french poodle."

Who contracted it from some chick named Kyle.

Posted by: Ribbed at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (Ectld)

104 The US is corrupt as Ukraine.

Posted by: Enough BS at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (2NXcZ)

105 When I need political advice, I always look to the idiot with his dick stuck in his zipper.
Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 04:54 PM

But sunburned taints are totes gravitas, right?

Posted by: Josh Brolin at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (a3Q+t)

106 I believe we are entering the Monkey Hour in this election season.

I always get so tense.

My booze intake increases. Which is not good.

Maybe I should check out edibles.

Posted by: Pug Mahon, Flightless Icky Weirdo at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (Ad8y9)

107 I thought Nate gave up/sold 538 and it's an ABC property. Did I get that wrong?

Posted by: olddog in mo at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (hoCmQ)

108 Ben Stiller went full retard.
Posted by: Thomas Bender

He always was. Just like 99.999% of his WhoreyWood peers.

Posted by: BifBewalski at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (MsrgL)

109 I'm a simple guy and sincerely for the hope of the USA that Trump wins. I have no doubt that the same crap will be pulled on him in his second term as on his first.
But I am looking forward to the absolute meltdown that the left will have on election night. It will make 2016 look like a case of the sniffles. And I can't wait

Posted by: Smell the Glove at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (ByB3C)

110 it's about the TRENDS,
......

and the tethers.

Don't tether me, Bro!

Posted by: t-bird at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (KBusA)

111 We'll know a lot more after John McCain's funeral is finished.

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 04:57 PM (VP9ao)
________________

First we have to wrap up the Wellstone funeral.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (YqDXo)

112 Leading Report @LeadingReport 1h
BREAKING: Kamala Harris has conducted fewer interviews (zero) since she became presumptive nominee than Joe Biden had at this point of his "basement campaign" in 2020.
====
Greg Price @greg_price11 13m
Kamala: "The climate crisis is real that it is an urgent matter to which we should apply metrics that include holding ourselves to deadlines around time."

https://tinyurl.com/bpvak2v9
15 seconds

Greg Price @greg_price11 11m
I think I'm starting to understand why they don't let this woman do unscripted interviews with the media.

Posted by: andycanuck (CEzQx) at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (CEzQx)

113 "it's time for a change"

Me too!

Posted by: Joe Biteum at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (vFG9F)

114 90 I think most here are savvy enough to know things will shift a lot between now and November...just like every election year.
Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (JCZqz)

=======

That it's accepted that polls shift on a schedule every year from Democrat leaning to more favorable to Republicans is one of the greatest cons the polling industry has pulled on the American public.

"Oh, the people just start paying attention to politics in September-October, which is why there's a sudden, almost uniform shift of about 5 points from Democrats to Republicans...every 2 years," is absolute nonsense.

Public polling is all about narrative framing, but polling firms that want to be taken seriously have to try at some point. And that point is the few weeks before the election, while others will still be in pure narrative framing mode, especially in an effort to affect aggregates.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, reminiscing about lost times with Orson Welles at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (GBKbO)

115 "You misspelled defenestration."


You misspelled Shit himself during the debate

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (a1415)

116 I don't post all the polls showing Harris ahead precisely to not upset people, then I post a poll showing trump doing *better* after Harris was ahead, and I get insulted.

I'm afraid I just can't create a bubble thick enough for some people. If a little reality is too much to handle, please seek another blog.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (KRtlO)

117 Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (YqDXo)

Here's a novel idea, never discussed on the ASHQ forum in the entire time I've been here-let's rescind votes for women, the men and some women can say "Yay!!!!" and we can all move onto the next thread.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (dTTBf)

118 So, you're telling me Ben Stiller really wasn't acting ?

Posted by: Remember When at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (ZIXDm)

119 107 I thought Nate gave up/sold 538 and it's an ABC property. Did I get that wrong?
Posted by: olddog in mo at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (hoCmQ)

=======

He did. He does a separate thing.

He's also been gloating because 538, which was saying in the weeks after the debate, that the election was still Biden's to lose, has finally admitted that their model is bullshit.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, reminiscing about lost times with Orson Welles at August 29, 2024 05:00 PM (GBKbO)

120 "And that point is the few weeks before the election, while others will still be in pure narrative framing mode, especially in an effort to affect aggregates."

So you're telling me there's a chance...

Posted by: Heels Up for the Win at August 29, 2024 05:00 PM (B0mGw)

121 Sometimes you win the First, sometimes you may not, right? But all those attempts makes for beautiful threads!
Posted by: Harris & Walz at August 29, 2024 04:48 PM (a3Q+t)

That was joyful.

Posted by: Dash my lace wigs! at August 29, 2024 05:00 PM (OX9vb)

122 First we have to wrap up the Wellstone funeral.
Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (YqDXo)

Luckily, they're not making that political.

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 05:00 PM (VP9ao)

123 96 The oxygen for the Harris bounce was pretty much removed when RFK threw his support to PDT, I suspect.


I think so.

I'd love some more defections. I'm looking at you, Lurch. you don't have to switch parties, even. just ... you know you want to, you massive unit. You'd be the story of the decade, John.

Posted by: BlackOrchid at August 29, 2024 05:00 PM (s3qiR)

124 matter what the poll says. If they don't think they can steal it, they'll find a pretext for "postponing" the election.

No way. There's no way they'd "delay" or "cancel" a federal election. That's too blatant for even normies to ignore, and not worth the risk. Absolute worst case scenario? Trump gets elected, Feds (along with various GOPe chameleons) stymie and slow any Trump initiatives, he's a lame duck anyway, you stall him for 3.5 years, and you're rid of him.

Posted by: Moron Analyst at August 29, 2024 05:00 PM (JCZqz)

125 The psycho bitch has peaked.
No way she can hold the sugar high.
I’m comfortable.

Posted by: Redenzo at August 29, 2024 05:00 PM (V/pbu)

126 Exactly. Genuine voters can’t possibly change their minds so much and so quickly without any major stimulus. Especially when probably 90-95% of voters are dead-set on their vote no matter what.
Posted by: Elric Blade at August 29, 2024 04:56 PM (WV8e4)

Yes - see my post at @40 - people do not behave like squirls crossing a road - back and forth fifty times - unless some sort of event happened that caused this - and none have happened that would suddenly make a large percentage of Americans think that the Biden-Harris disaster wasn't a disaster. Or come back suddenly after switching, to Trump who is Hitler - this whole lead up to the election polling is wholly made up

Posted by: Boswell at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (K+UlC)

127 18 Kamala says ' Climate is an urgent matter to which we should apply metric to include holding ourselves to deadlines around time'.

Wut?
Posted by: IC - #FJB at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (ZtyUu)

[announcer]:This is the voice of the political pinnacle of democrats.

Posted by: Question Authority bumper sticker at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (Rbu5d)

128 116 I don't post all the polls showing Harris ahead precisely to not upset people, then I post a poll showing trump doing *better* after Harris was ahead, and I get insulted.

I'm afraid I just can't create a bubble thick enough for some people. If a little reality is too much to handle, please seek another blog.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (KRtlO)

Your effort is appreciated by most folks here. Polls are not the truth in any case; just the ballots that get counted.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (ynpvh)

129 I post them, but mostly because the DU comments regarding them are super-extra retarded. Like We need red states to show they "might" swing blue. Like Ohio, Texas, NC.
________________

California, Oregon, and Washington "might" swing red, too. Sure.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (YqDXo)

130 The oxygen for the Harris bounce was pretty much removed when RFK threw his support to PDT, I suspect

That was on Tuesday, right? The convention was completely forgotten in two days. That has to be a record.

Posted by: t-bird at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (KBusA)

131 Imagine you're campaign manager, and you are saddled with a candidate SO STUPID that you can't risk letting her talk in public

Posted by: Don Black at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (/7KEl)

132 116 I don't post all the polls showing Harris ahead precisely to not upset people, then I post a poll showing trump doing *better* after Harris was ahead, and I get insulted.

I'm afraid I just can't create a bubble thick enough for some people. If a little reality is too much to handle, please seek another blog.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (KRtlO)

Gainzzz yes, Feelzz no… we ought to be big enough not to need our butts wiped Ace…

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (PCK5/)

133 I've said this before, but liberals coined the phrase "toxic positivity." Joy in the face of injustice is a micro aggression to them. They've conditioned their own people, the woke warriors, to be suspicious of joy.

And the practical liberals will realize joy won't make their food or gas prices go down, or prevent the local imported illegal gang from robbing or raping them.

Kamala's whole campaign is the Wish version of Obama's. She can't sell the hope BS repackaged as joy like he could.

I have no idea how her cushy interview, where she'll have her hand held by her emotional support toady, will go tonight. But here's hoping it opens a few more eyes that putting their joy, or their pursuit of happiness, in her is misplaced.

Posted by: LizLem at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (mAZTJ)

134 Eh, more talk about polling. Boring and tedious until likely voter screens become better. The usual reason for delaying voting screens for likelys until after Labor Day is that people can register in many states until about thirty days before the election. Same day voting registration occurs only in a few states which Michigan is a recent change in that department.

Early voting starts in a few states by mid September and by October, many additional states come on line.

EV figures, while not perfect as an indicator of the general electorate, are preferable to polls and good polls use that EV data to correct their state polling if possible.

Posted by: whig at August 29, 2024 05:02 PM (kW+z9)

135 Susan Rice's husband is an ABC News producer.

Posted by: Ben Had at August 29, 2024 05:02 PM (1k7z0)

136 The more that people get to know Kamala, the less they like her.

She should do a nationwide speaking tour.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at August 29, 2024 05:02 PM (a1415)

137 127 18 Kamala says ' Climate is an urgent matter to which we should apply metric to include holding ourselves to deadlines around time'.

Wut?
Posted by: IC - #FJB at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (ZtyUu)

[announcer]:This is the voice of the political pinnacle of democrats.

Posted by: Question Authority bumper sticker at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (Rbu5d)

Metric? Like meters and grams?

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:02 PM (ynpvh)

138 Kamala: "The climate crisis is real that it is an urgent matter to which we should apply metrics that include holding ourselves to deadlines around time."

I don't really understand how this woman can be so bad at public speaking after so many years running for-and in- Congress.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at August 29, 2024 05:02 PM (dTTBf)

139 I'm a bit depressed over the fact that Trump world considers this good news. Is this the best polling they can point to?

Have you looked at Rassmusen who is actually trying to do an accurate Poll? Kamala has hit her peak, and the hangover after the drunken orgy of the DNC Chicago convention is going to be awesome. The Dems big problem is Kamala is a crappy candidate. They know that. That is why they were trying to dump her 6 months ago. You can only put so much lipstick on that pig...

Posted by: An Observation sez China Joe not my president at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (Da7Vv)

140 Seizing over here, Boss!

Posted by: Dragline at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (Aqu9a)

141 How is that Truth Social stock doing? IMO this is another bellwether to watch and it’s not encouraging.

Posted by: Man Without A Party at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (7stGo)

142 Polls are entertainment for political junkies…

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (PCK5/)

143 N Dakota St @ Colorado tonight 6 MDT 🏈

Posted by: Don Black at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (/7KEl)

144 116 I don't post all the polls showing Harris ahead precisely to not upset people, then I post a poll showing trump doing *better* after Harris was ahead, and I get insulted.

I'm afraid I just can't create a bubble thick enough for some people. If a little reality is too much to handle, please seek another blog.
Posted by: ace

Hmm...this sounds like me trying to deal with my wife. The secret is to realize any choice you make is the wrong one, and will be criticized, so you may as well do whatever you want.

Posted by: Moron Analyst at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (JCZqz)

145 Did I read correctly that the Harris / Walz CNN interview is 18 minutes long? I can see Biden doing one that short because otherwise he'd start drooling , weeping and shit himself. The ticket however must realize that the more they talk the more they come off like gibbering, Marxist retards

Posted by: Smell the Glove at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (ByB3C)

146 It gets worse:

@ConwayShow 44s
Bugs, mold and mildew found in Boar's Head plant linked to deadly listeria outbreak - CBS News

Not sure if this is connected, but...

@Oilfield_Rando 22h
“Boar’s Head is part of the Tent Coalition for Refugees in the U.S., exploring hiring, training, and mentoring opportunities for refugees”

“Inspectors turned up dozens of violations at a Boar’s Head plant in Virginia now linked to a nationwide recall of deli meats”

Posted by: weft cut-loop at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (IG4Id)

147 135 Susan Rice's husband is an ABC News producer.

Posted by: Ben Had at August 29, 2024 05:02 PM (1k7z0)

Kiddie pron?

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (ynpvh)

148 Ben Stiller on why he's voting for Kamala Harris: "I believe it's time for change"

Isn't she already in office? 😆 pic.twitter.com/VLo4eKoVFg

The incumbent running as the outsider/change agent is fascinating. And it assumes a significant portion of the electorate is brain dead.

Posted by: 18-1 at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (oZhjI)

149 50 These polls can’t be right — no matter who they favor — if they keep bouncing around like this. Such huge swings in a matter of weeks can’t possibly be the result of any genuine voter sentiment. It has to be the result of polling error, luck, sampling sex, or deliberate malfeasance.

these aren't huge swings, they're bounces for Harris, after the convention, which is when you'd expect a bounce.

If you're talking about the 10-point swing Silver is talking about, that's not a poll swing, that's a swing in the ODDS based on his analysis of the polls. The polls have swung about five points.

Five points is not so "huge" after a convention.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (KRtlO)
———-

Normally I would agree with you. But 5% swing in an election where probably close to 95% are already so dead-bang locked into their vote they’d sooner make a western with Alec Baldwin than change? That means almost ALL the “swing” voters are changing their minds en masse. I just don’t see how that’s possible.

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (WV8e4)

150 >>Your effort is appreciated by most folks here. Polls are not the truth in any case; just the ballots that get counted.
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (ynpvh)

Not all ballots that get counted are the truth either. Where Trump was vis a vis HRC at this point in 2016 is irrelevant (imo) because the Dems believed their own b.s. and didn't bring their fraud A-game. I'm afraid they won't get caught flatfooted again.

Posted by: teejuss at August 29, 2024 05:04 PM (NpOuX)

151 142 Polls are entertainment for political junkies…

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (PCK5/)

I guess that makes the pollsters the strippers, metaphorically speaking...

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:04 PM (ynpvh)

152 I don't post all the polls showing Harris ahead precisely to not upset people, then I post a poll showing trump doing *better* after Harris was ahead, and I get insulted.

I'm afraid I just can't create a bubble thick enough for some people. If a little reality is too much to handle, please seek another blog.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:59 PM (KRtlO)
_______________

We appreciate you, Ace.

When I read a poll, I prepend to it, "Someone wants me to believe that ..." and then I read the poll.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:04 PM (YqDXo)

153 Trump: Make America Great Again

Harris: Feel Joy in Having Less

Posted by: 18-1 at August 29, 2024 05:04 PM (oZhjI)

154 Stiller plays two roles:

The over-the-top caricature of a heel.

The mewling simp.

It would appear that only one of those is him acting.

Posted by: The Central Scrutinizer at August 29, 2024 04:52 PM (KbCG3)
---
I think you nailed it. Even guys like Jim Carrey and Will Ferrell can step out of those types of roles. Seems Li'l Benny cannot.

Posted by: Pug Mahon, Flightless Icky Weirdo at August 29, 2024 05:04 PM (Ad8y9)

155 Millions of women will impoverish their fellow citizens, have them overrun by illegal migrants and be incinerated in a nuclear war just so they can have full-term abortions.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (1Nxff)

Come and share your angst with like-minded women to whom the thought of bearing a child is the most Nazi-forced torment there is! We provide the full Handmaid regalia.

The Forced Conception and Escape to Abortion experience is not included in the basic package. Please see pricing chart.

Posted by: Handmaid's Tale Fantasy Camp at August 29, 2024 05:04 PM (w6EFb)

156 Funny Serconish said if the election was held today Harris would win. I know, he lives in a bubble outside the USA.
Apparently he didn’t see 538pivot . We hoardsters knew this was coming.
But I observe my enemy and drink his wine eat his food and sleep with his women.
That’s what I’m here for

Posted by: Redenzo at August 29, 2024 05:04 PM (V/pbu)

157 N Dakota St @ Colorado tonight 6 MDT 🏈
Posted by: Don Black at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (/7KEl)



Will the colorado sideline be the BET awards as it was last season for ol' Coach Prime?

Posted by: Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (Zz0t1)

158 The oxygen for the Harris bounce was pretty much removed when
......

Willie Brown pinched her nostrils shut.

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (v0R5T)

159 Susan Rice's husband is an ABC News producer.

Posted by: Ben Had at August 29, 2024 05:02 PM (1k7z0)
---
News rooms and DC is one big incestuous bed.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (krQz2)

160 >>>I just don’t see how that’s possible.

whatever, you already know the results of the election, so feel free to skip posts like this.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (KRtlO)

161 You can only put so much lipstick on that pig...

Posted by: An Observation sez China Joe not my president at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (Da7Vv)
______________

Leave Stacey Abrams out of this.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (YqDXo)

162 150 >>Your effort is appreciated by most folks here. Polls are not the truth in any case; just the ballots that get counted.
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (ynpvh)

Not all ballots that get counted are the truth either. Where Trump was vis a vis HRC at this point in 2016 is irrelevant (imo) because the Dems believed their own b.s. and didn't bring their fraud A-game. I'm afraid they won't get caught flatfooted again.

Posted by: teejuss at August 29, 2024 05:04 PM (NpOuX)

If the ballots are fraudulent, then that is the truth of the counting.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (ynpvh)

163 Kamala says ' Climate is an urgent matter to which we should apply metric to include holding ourselves to deadlines around time'.

I got a headache from reading that'.

Posted by: dantesed at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (Oy/m2)

164 Time for Trump to put out an ad campaign for Kamala:

Kraft Durch Freude (Strength Through Joy)

There are already a lot of posters he could use from a few years back.

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (VP9ao)

165 Is anyone, anywhere, swayed by Ben Stiller's support for Kammie?

Posted by: Question Authority bumper sticker at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (Rbu5d)

166 My worry is that Trump might be blowing it with all of his recent talk about abortion, and he's doubling down on saying 6 weeks is to early, and talking about how he's going to vote on the referendum in Florida. He will lose a lot of support because of this. Not sure why he would even talking about it at this point, he won't pull one single liberal woman vote by doing this. I don't like it, of course I'll still vote for him because I see the bigger picture. But I think it's a really stupid move.

Posted by: spypeach at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (UuB/1)

167 He was never behind

Posted by: Kamala's Throat at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (W+TLY)

168 Harris is +3 in VA.

If you think there's gonna be fraud in this election, it will not be in VA. Someone should be sending Presler down here for GOTV...

Posted by: Nova Local at August 29, 2024 05:06 PM (exHjb)

169
Weaponized feminine sympathy and selfishness is one hell of a combination.
Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (krQz2)

Of course, millions of women will impoverish their fellow citizens, have them overrun by illegal migrants and be incinerated in a nuclear war just so that bitch Cheryl doesn't get the promotion they want.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:06 PM (1Nxff)

170 Stiller's wife Christine Taylor is still hot

Posted by: Smell the Glove at August 29, 2024 05:06 PM (ByB3C)

171
If the ballots are fraudulent, then that is the truth of the counting.
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (ynpvh)

If a ballot is fraudulent, it's a lie.

Posted by: teejuss at August 29, 2024 05:06 PM (NpOuX)

172 127 18 Kamala says ' Climate is an urgent matter to which we should apply metric to include holding ourselves to deadlines around time'.

Wut?
Posted by: IC - #FJB at August 29, 2024 04:46 PM (ZtyUu)

[announcer]:This is the voice of the political pinnacle of democrats.
Posted by: Question Authority bumper sticker

To be fair, her stupid answer is still better than whatever angry Joe would mumble yell, so Kamala IS an improvement.

Posted by: Moron Analyst at August 29, 2024 05:06 PM (JCZqz)

173 BREAKING: President Trump says he will protect IVF treatments & have them paid for by government or insurance companies if elected - NBC


Posted by: Mark1971 at August 29, 2024 05:06 PM (xPl2J)

174 171
If the ballots are fraudulent, then that is the truth of the counting.
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (ynpvh)

If a ballot is fraudulent, it's a lie.

Posted by: teejuss at August 29, 2024 05:06 PM (NpOuX)

and that's the truth.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:07 PM (ynpvh)

175
This is definitely gonna be a roller coaster
Posted by: It's me donna

Bumpy

https://youtu.be/q0H9ceOQK2s

Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at August 29, 2024 05:07 PM (63Dwl)

176 Polls are for strippers.

Posted by: Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden at August 29, 2024 05:07 PM (Zz0t1)

177 Trump can absolutely win this election. The economic state of affairs should be enough.
Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 04:45 PM (PCK5

So, three in row.

Question is will we let them cheat again.

Posted by: Dandalo at August 29, 2024 05:07 PM (3QsZU)

178 there are a lot of polls showing Harris ahead. I don't post them because I don't want to dispirit conservatives. But if you don't believe me, and are going to insult me, I can post them. Would you like that?

====posting grifter polls is.....unproductive, misleading, etc

they're sh)t, and you know that

no insult intended

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at August 29, 2024 05:07 PM (dGRTS)

179 Kamala says ' Climate is an urgent matter to which we should apply metric to include holding ourselves to deadlines around time'.

I got a headache from reading that'.
Posted by: dantesed at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (Oy/m2)

OK, it's time we have a Bulwer-Lytton-type contest to see who can come up with the most Kamala-like dumbass sentence.

Posted by: hobbitopoly at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (k9OZB)

180 I'm semi-optimistic Trump wins, but any contest that comes down to 1-2%, it's sickening for how far our country has fallen and its still up in the air.

I do get so sick of the trolls that can't handle any honest talk about the state of this race. They instantly go nasty unless every post is "trump wins a land slide!"

Even if you're bullish on Trump, what do you think the final result is going to be? My guess is if Trump wins, it will be down to like 1-2% in 3-4 states.

Posted by: Lacra at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (4pwAx)

181 Abortion is left to the states now. What state politicians have to say about it is what is pertinent, right??

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (PCK5/)

182 131 Imagine you're campaign manager, and you are saddled with a candidate SO STUPID that you can't risk letting her talk in public
Posted by: Don Black at August 29, 2024 05:01 PM (/7KEl)

What does the smart campaign manager do?

Not let the retard talk in public.

Will that work? Probably not alone, so expect some outside event like a sentence of confinement along with a gag order, another superseding indictment, or kinetic military action. If that doesn't pan out, just admit the obvious--that elections are empty ceremonies now--and effectively act like who is in office does not matter, which seems to be reality anyhow. Something else to expect: the Great Replacement to continue to accelerate. That's the whole endgame.

Posted by: Trump poisoned my cat at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (KSNKu)

183 Polls are for strippers, tee-hee!

Posted by: Vice President Sarah Palin at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (MhIOm)

184 News rooms and DC is one big incestuous bed.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (krQz2)
_______________

It's like a ball of snakes mating.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (YqDXo)

185 It's very simple.
- Either the polls are part of the kabuki and can't be trusted
- Or the polls are real and a sign of how things are trending.

That just narrows it down to 2 possibilities. And either Trump or Harris is ahead, so that's 2x more, leaving 4 possible realities based on what we see.

And either they are going to cheat enough to change things, or not. but they will only cheat if Harris is losing so that leaves 6 realities we need to focus on.

And this changes every news cycle. Easy Peasy. Spend all your time and energy figuring out which reality is real over and over until the election.

Posted by: PFC Obvious at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (yiMW+)

186 "I'm afraid I just can't create a bubble thick enough for some people. If a little reality is too much to handle, please seek another blog."

What did you say, sailor?!? You can't say that! He can't say that!

Posted by: Random Movie Quotes at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (B0mGw)

187 Sponge, I think the novelty has worn off since finishing 4-8 last season

Posted by: Don Black at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (/7KEl)

188 That means almost ALL the “swing” voters are changing their minds en masse.

Easily enough explained. They all share the same brain.

Posted by: Remember When at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (ZIXDm)

189 Five points is not so "huge" after a convention.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 04:55 PM (KRtlO)

Again - who in your personal life is like this - anyone? Anywhere? "I think I like Trump - oh wait I watched a commercial about Harris - I like her....oh wait, Trump says shes a liar so..."

Yeah, no one really thinks this way - unless you believe these polls, that is. And over 5% of the electorate is like 8.5M of the registered voter population in the US - not happening.

Posted by: Boswell at August 29, 2024 05:09 PM (K+UlC)

190 >>> Ehh, they work in an industry that has been captured by the left and if you don't toe the line, you ain't working, period.

Even if it's a strange mess, I want to see Coppola's Megalopolis in theaters the first week or two it's out. Because he said he specifically hired non-woke or canceled conservative actors because he didn't want his movie to be construed as a woke allegory.

That takes guts to do, as is bringing a sprawling life's dream to life. I want to support that, if nothing else. It maddens me great actors have been sidelined due to the political dogma of Hollyweird.

Posted by: LizLem at August 29, 2024 05:09 PM (iTMak)

191 The incumbent running as the outsider/change agent is fascinating. And it assumes a significant portion of the electorate is brain dead.
Posted by: 18-1 at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (oZhjI)
----------------

To be fair, assuming a significant portion of the electorate is brain dead is not necessarily a losing bet.

Posted by: blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1) at August 29, 2024 05:09 PM (tT6L1)

192 Is anyone, anywhere, swayed by Ben Stiller's support for Kammie?
Posted by: Question Authority bumper sticker at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (Rbu5d)
---
I'm more struck by how voting for a representative of the incumbent administration is a vote for change.

Ben Stiller? No.

Ben Stiller being Dumb? Bigger No.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:09 PM (krQz2)

193 He's a boy... in a bubble
He's a Bubble Boy!

Posted by: Don Black at August 29, 2024 05:09 PM (/7KEl)

194
Undecided voter: one of those people who stand with their carts in the middle of the supermarket aisle while they take ten minutes to decide between two cuts of green beans.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:09 PM (1Nxff)

195 If the polls weren't accurate Kamala wouldnt' be talking about the border fence and not taxing tips.

But, the left always lies about their positions so who knows.

Posted by: CaliGirl at August 29, 2024 05:09 PM (tMjDM)

196 The incumbent running as the outsider/change agent is fascinating. And it assumes a significant portion of the electorate is brain dead.

Posted by: 18-1 at August 29, 2024 05:03 PM (oZhjI)
---
Bold strategy, Cotton.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:09 PM (krQz2)

197 142 Polls are entertainment for political junkies…
Posted by: tubal
========
Pretty much until EV totals start coming in. Watch where Trump and Harris go and to a lesser extent where Vance and Walz go. That tells you where the camp's internal polling tells them to go.

It can go wrong though. Some of Killary's polling staff saw a surge for Trump in the Midwest states in October but Killary dismissed them and failed to visit them seeking to roll up her popular vote totals elsewhere instead. Ironically, she was born in IL.

Posted by: whig at August 29, 2024 05:09 PM (kW+z9)

198 That means almost ALL the “swing” voters are changing their minds en masse.


I vaguely recall one pollster...maybe Baris?...handling this sort of thing by tracking the same group of voters over time.

Because the changes you see in polling make no sense otherwise. In a short period of time with no real issues being discussed 10% of the voters changes their minds? Really?

Posted by: 18-1 at August 29, 2024 05:10 PM (oZhjI)

199 Climate is an urgent matter to which we should apply metric to include holding ourselves to deadlines around time'.
......

But what about coconuts and space?

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 05:10 PM (v0R5T)

200 Abortion is left to the states now. What state politicians have to say about it is what is pertinent, right??

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (PCK5/)
_______________

Yep. Why Trump or any Republican in the Federal government would let the "a word" pass his lips surpasseth all understanding.

When asked, simply reply, "It's a state matter now, not Federal. Next question."

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:10 PM (YqDXo)

201 Holy shit... DHS and DOD just announced that the Military, including the Guard, will 'support' the Secret Service in protecting Presidential candidates.

Because... you know... with all the shit going on in the world... illegally using the Army in this manner is just peachy keen, not like they are busy or anything.

Posted by: Romeo13 at August 29, 2024 05:10 PM (xaFKb)

202 But I am looking forward to the absolute meltdown that the left will have on election night. It will make 2016 look like a case of the sniffles. And I can't wait
Posted by: Smell the Glove
+++
I hope Martha radditz needs a whole case of Kleenex.

Posted by: Florida Peasant at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (Lo97M)

203 The oxygen for the Harris bounce was pretty much removed when
......

Willie Brown pinched her nostrils shut.

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (v0R5T)

I love AoS!

Posted by: Miley, okravangelist at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (w6EFb)

204 Sponge, I think the novelty has worn off since finishing 4-8 last season
Posted by: Don Black at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (/7KEl)


1/2 his team hated him and he didn't know 3/4 of their names.

Posted by: Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (Zz0t1)

205 Their raw sample in the poll was D+44.

==


🤣🤣🤣🤣

Posted by: runner at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (V13WU)

206 Come and share your angst with like-minded women to whom the thought of bearing a child is the most Nazi-forced torment there is! We provide the full Handmaid regalia.

The Forced Conception and Escape to Abortion experience is not included in the basic package. Please see pricing chart.
Posted by: Handmaid's Tale Fantasy Camp at August 29, 2024 05:04 PM (w6EFb)
---
Isn't the Surgeon General on board with this?

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (7fElN)

207 How July 13th happened, for real canonical really

https://x.com/codyaims/status/1828673765485760958

Posted by: BourbonChicken at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (cf/0E)

208 "one of those people who stand with their carts in the middle of the supermarket aisle while they take ten minutes to decide between two cuts of green beans. "

And then they get to the canned corn section, and it's another two hours.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (a1415)

209 Polls are commissioned by people who have a particular narrative or agenda to push. They're paying for it, so they'll get what they want.

Period.

Posted by: Martini Farmer at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (Q4IgG)

210 69...Trump weirdo voters left with few alternatives now that RFK Jr. is out. Looks like they're choosing to STAY HOME!
Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at August 29, 2024 04:53 PM (JCZqz)

I know all the words used, but I have no idea what they mean in this order.

Talk about weird. Or maybe, just drugged up and stupid.

Posted by: Question Authority bumper sticker at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (Rbu5d)

211 Kamala says ' Climate is an urgent matter to which we should apply metric to include holding ourselves to deadlines around time'.


I read that as Kamala will be Full Steam Ahead! on the Paris Climate Accords CO2 reduction targets, the latest EPA CAFE fleet mileage requirements, and every other bit of Green New Deal CO2 insanity. In other words, economic disaster.

Posted by: Gref at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (aBgBM)

212 This is definitely gonna be a roller coaster

The nuclear war scare will certainly spice things up.

Posted by: t-bird at August 29, 2024 05:12 PM (KBusA)

213 >>174 171
If the ballots are fraudulent, then that is the truth of the counting.
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:05 PM (ynpvh)

If a ballot is fraudulent, it's a lie.

Posted by: teejuss at August 29, 2024 05:06 PM (NpOuX)

and that's the truth.
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 29, 2024 05:07 PM (ynpvh)

The point ultimately being that it's irrelevant. The fraud in blue citadels is too deeply entrenched. I don't see any way that Trump wins PA, MI, WI or even AZ to be honest. This is what the National Voter Registration Act was meant to bring about: a national Dem/Left stranglehold.

Posted by: teejuss at August 29, 2024 05:12 PM (NpOuX)

214 This mostly just confirms a preexisting belief: don't take Nate Silver too seriously or polling or forecasting for that matter. Does anyone really believe that in two weeks time there was a 10-point swing? If not, then Silver's model is fubar.

Posted by: bridge salesman at August 29, 2024 05:12 PM (cBvpj)

215 That it's accepted that polls shift on a schedule every year from Democrat leaning to more favorable to Republicans is one of the greatest cons the polling industry has pulled on the American public.

"Oh, the people just start paying attention to politics in September-October, which is why there's a sudden, almost uniform shift of about 5 points from Democrats to Republicans...every 2 years," is absolute nonsense.

The trend is undeniable, which is why I'm not too concerned yet. The underlying cause could be for the reasons you describe, but I'm not 100% sold. In polls generally, even outside of election season, Dem politicians (or "generic dem candidates") generally poll better. I think LIVs generally think Dems are nicer, more acceptable, more caring, etc, so generally default to supporting them.

But, as campaigns ramp up, they do see more detailed information, and it does affect perceptions. Obama 2008 and Kamala now both benefit from the blank slate bonus...they aren't well known, and voters will project their personal preferences on them until they're better defined. Obama was smart and eloquent enough to fool people long enough to get into office. Kamala?

Posted by: Moron Analyst at August 29, 2024 05:12 PM (JCZqz)

216 should be a steady downward slide for Harris, as her true past and current Lie-lapalooza becomes more evident. Trump just has to keep dodging bullets (and stop the steal, don't just count on overcoming it)

Posted by: illiniwek at August 29, 2024 05:12 PM (Cus5s)

217 To be fair, assuming a significant portion of the electorate is brain dead is not necessarily a losing bet.
Posted by: blake
========
More like that even voters below the IQ median have some outcome interests--they just do not understand what policies can lead to their desired outcomes. Same as a thief released by the Dems that gets his shit stolen by another thief that was released by the Dems from jail. That thief will probably still vote for Dems for getting him out of jail while being upset that some other SOB stole his stuff.

People below 70 iq are basically childlike and really someone else is voting for them if they are registered at all.

Posted by: whig at August 29, 2024 05:12 PM (kW+z9)

218
Abortion is left to the states now. What state politicians have to say about it is what is pertinent, right??
Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (PCK5/)

Wrong. The narrative is that the Republicans are going to ban abortion and contraceptives nationwide.

Of course, that's projection. The Democrats want to have full-term abortion nationwide, abolish the Hyde Amendment, force any health care facility to perform abortions and abolish any conscience clauses.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:13 PM (1Nxff)

219 Even if you're bullish on Trump, what do you think the final result is going to be? My guess is if Trump wins, it will be down to like 1-2% in 3-4 states.
Posted by: Lacra at August 29, 2024 05:08 PM (4pwAx)

We are at the tipping point where assassinations and prosecutions will not be necessary. Once those millions are registered to vote, no doubt with congressional GOP complicity due to purchased principles, even an obviously retarded candidate like Harris will be able to go public with her stupidity and ignorance. Maybe not there yet, but close.

Posted by: Trump poisoned my cat at August 29, 2024 05:13 PM (KSNKu)

220 Holy shit... DHS and DOD just announced that the Military, including the Guard, will 'support' the Secret Service in protecting Presidential candidates.

I wonder...if Kamel Toe is obviously going to lose coming into the home stretch and its going to require more then 20M votes...will they just produce another Crooks, claim he's MAGA, and the use that to surge Tampon Tim to victory?

The FNM basically erased the Trump attempted assassination story but this was the biggest political story since...uh...ever? It should have led to the impeachment of Biden and Harris but...crickets.

Posted by: 18-1 at August 29, 2024 05:13 PM (oZhjI)

221 201 Holy shit... DHS and DOD just announced that the Military, including the Guard, will 'support' the Secret Service in protecting Presidential candidates.

Because... you know... with all the shit going on in the world... illegally using the Army in this manner is just peachy keen, not like they are busy or anything.


I suppose they would include far better shots.

Posted by: BlackOrchid at August 29, 2024 05:13 PM (s3qiR)

222 It’s funny. I look at polls to observe the weighting of dem to indie and republican. I can never see a breakdown.
This should be a top line information piece of the poll.

Posted by: Redenzo at August 29, 2024 05:13 PM (V/pbu)

223 To be fair, her stupid answer is still better than whatever angry Joe would mumble yell, so Kamala IS an improvement.
Posted by: Moron Analyst at August 29, 2024 05:06 PM (JCZqz)

At least we could tell what the words were, even if they don't make sense in that order.

Posted by: Dash my lace wigs! at August 29, 2024 05:14 PM (OX9vb)

224 The polling seems easy to explain to me.

People hated the option of Trump vs Biden, like 80% of the country polled wished they had different options.

A different option emerged and a small percent landed on the "new" option. A few of that tiny slice saw that Harris was just he same version of Biden, and drifted back into the undecided camp.

Elections being largely zero sum, if the race is 50-50, and 3% flip, it's now 47-53. So the change seems huge.

Posted by: Lacra at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (4pwAx)

225 I dunno. The WSJ, owned by News Corp., who
It was just incidentally reported gave 99.5% of their donations to Democrats, just told me that Kamala pulled ahead of Trump in their national poll.

Did Fox call Arizona for Kamala yet?

Posted by: Vengeance at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (1AuZD)

226 My only consolation is that in Colorado I can still deposit my ballot in an actual ballot box at the county courthouse (instead of mailing it), which is close to my office. (Unless that changed since the last election.) Still not sure it gets counted, but it's the best I can do until we move the fuck out of this fucking state.

Now I am in a crappy mood.

Posted by: Pug Mahon, Flightless Icky Weirdo at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (Ad8y9)

227
About half the country would vote for a tardigrade before they'd vote for Donald Trump.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (1Nxff)

228 The average IQ in the United States is 98..

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (PCK5/)

229 OK, here is reality: In 2020 one of these two candidates ran a presidential campaign that closely resembled the last flight of the Hindenburg. Here is a hint: it wasn't Donald Trump. Six months ago Democrats were trying to figure out how to dump her from the campaign, because they considered her a lead weight on their ticket. Remember she was always seen by everyone as Biden's impeachment insurance. Now she's all bright, shiny, and new? Please.

Posted by: An Observation sez China Joe not my president at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (Da7Vv)

230 Ah, they just checkmated the IVF BS from Ds!

Posted by: runner at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (V13WU)

231 Liberals are good for something...

I sold my Aston Martin yesterday within 24 hours of listing it on Autotraders. It's shipping off to Emoryville, CA, which is somewhere near San Francisco, so I assume it's some left wing hipster that needs affirmation that bought it. Now I'll look for a car I can get in and out of without help.

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (VP9ao)

232 So, you're telling me Ben Stiller really wasn't acting ?
Posted by: Remember When

Especially when he zipped his beans and frank up. With his beans on top of his frank in the zipper.

Not. Acting. Dumber (and less useful) than a wet paper bag full of rusty hammers

Posted by: BifBewalski at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (MsrgL)

233 I suppose they would include far better shots.

Posted by: BlackOrchid at August 29, 2024 05:13 PM (s3qiR)
_______________

Dunno about the Army, but the Marines certainly would. Every Marine a rifleman.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (YqDXo)

234 Now they are talking about NC since there are fraud measures in place in GA.

When I first read that eternal vigilance is needed to secure liberty I didn't realize how true it is.
Posted by: WinLinBSDAdmin

NC passed a mandatory Voter ID law, and we now have a SC that won't nullify it before the election. I hope it's enough, because we have our fair share of Blue Shitholes.

Posted by: Oedipus at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (Z6vKV)

235 Nate Silver just published a book

Posted by: vmom stabby stabby stabby stabby stabamillion at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (v1PAU)

236 More like that even voters below the IQ median have some outcome interests--they just do not understand what policies can lead to their desired outcomes.

At one company I worked at our office was located in a blue town. My cow-workers helped elected a leftwing lunatic as mayor. One of her policies was requiring all the office spaces in town to reserve half their spots for compact cars.

So the company that owns the office building dutifully did so and my cow-workers, who mostly drove trucks and SUVs and often had weight issues proceeded to bang the hell out of each other's cars getting in and out.

And boy were they mad...at the company running the office building. And no amount of pointing them to the policy their beloved mayor mandated would shake their anger at the people NOT responsible for their unhappiness.

Posted by: 18-1 at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (oZhjI)

237 The average IQ in the United States is 98..

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (PCK5/)
---
... and falling...

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (krQz2)

238 165 Is anyone, anywhere, swayed by Ben Stiller's support for Kammie?
Posted by: Question Authority bumper sticker at August 29, 2024 05:05
----------------

Didn't care for his character in Dodge Ball.

Posted by: olddog in mo at August 29, 2024 05:17 PM (hoCmQ)

239 Yep. Why Trump or any Republican in the Federal government would let the "a word" pass his lips surpasseth all understanding.

When asked, simply reply, "It's a state matter now, not Federal. Next question."
Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:10 PM (YqDXo)

Yep, why make this an issue at all. He will not win any new votes on this. SMH

Posted by: spypeach at August 29, 2024 05:17 PM (UuB/1)

240 233 I suppose they would include far better shots.

Posted by: BlackOrchid at August 29, 2024 05:13 PM (s3qiR)
_______________

Dunno about the Army, but the Marines certainly would. Every Marine a rifleman.
Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (YqDXo)

Ladies and Gentlemen... let me introduce you to the Praetorian Guard.

Posted by: Romeo13 at August 29, 2024 05:17 PM (xaFKb)

241 Speaking of idiots, haven't heard much from Karine Jean-Pierre Van Damm lately.
Hope she's OK.

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 05:17 PM (v0R5T)

242 Another consideration; what would the deep rather deal with...
- the aftermath of a Trump win
- the aftermath of a Harris win

IMO a Trump win = chaos/civil war. A Harris win = bitching and moaning.

YMMV

Posted by: Martini Farmer at August 29, 2024 05:18 PM (Q4IgG)

243 Millions of women will impoverish their fellow citizens, have them overrun by illegal migrants and be incinerated in a nuclear war just so they can have full-term abortions.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 04:49 PM (1Nxff)

And that's why women should never have been allowed the vote.


Posted by: Archer at August 29, 2024 05:18 PM (IDphi)

244 Holy shit... DHS and DOD just announced that the Military, including the Guard, will 'support' the Secret Service in protecting Presidential candidates.

Because... you know... with all the shit going on in the world... illegally using the Army in this manner is just peachy keen, not like they are busy or anything.


I suppose they would include far better shots.
Posted by: BlackOrchid

Sure makes a political military coup a shit ton easier.

Imperial units. So a blue whale's 40 gallon sperm load.

Posted by: BifBewalski at August 29, 2024 05:18 PM (MsrgL)

245 The average IQ in the United States is 98..

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (PCK5/)
_______________

Since IQ is normed to 100, you might wonder our average/median is 98.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:18 PM (YqDXo)

246 Remember, if Kamala loses, there will be an open field for the Democratic nomination in 2028.
Posted by: The ARC of History!

Says who?

Posted by: Nancy, Barrack, and the D.S. at August 29, 2024 05:18 PM (KAi1n)

247 About half the country would vote for a tardigrade before they'd vote for Donald Trump.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh
-----

They're so cute!

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at August 29, 2024 05:18 PM (XeU6L)

248 231 Liberals are good for something...

I sold my Aston Martin yesterday within 24 hours of listing it on Autotraders. It's shipping off to Emoryville, CA, which is somewhere near San Francisco, so I assume it's some left wing hipster that needs affirmation that bought it. Now I'll look for a car I can get in and out of without help.
Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (VP9ao)

It's by Oakland /Berkley

Posted by: It's me donna at August 29, 2024 05:18 PM (IyPmt)

249 109...It will make 2016 look like a case of the sniffles. And I can't wait
Posted by: Smell the Glove at August 29, 2024 04:58 PM (ByB3C)

It'll be nice to have some new photos for memes.
That "chick" in the knit beanie screaming at the sky is overused. (BTW, I always thought it was a male, until someone here told me otherwise)

Posted by: Question Authority bumper sticker at August 29, 2024 05:18 PM (Rbu5d)

250 214 This mostly just confirms a preexisting belief: don't take Nate Silver too seriously or polling or forecasting for that matter. Does anyone really believe that in two weeks time there was a 10-point swing? If not, then Silver's model is fubar.
Posted by: bridge salesman
========
Nate got his rep by using Obama campaign internal polling to correct his model in 2008 and 2012. He was more accurate in 2008 than 2012 and outright wrong in 2016.

Haven't paid much attention to him since because basically aggregating various polls or using the rather pointless political betting markets is basically doing a meta analysis with data that he does not know the underlying error distribution is.

Posted by: whig at August 29, 2024 05:19 PM (kW+z9)

251 NC passed a mandatory Voter ID law, and we now have a SC that won't nullify it before the election. I hope it's enough, because we have our fair share of Blue Shitholes.
Posted by: Oedipus at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (Z6vKV)

And Clownifornia just passed an ANTI Voter ID Law. Makes it illegal to check voter ID at all.

Posted by: Romeo13 at August 29, 2024 05:19 PM (xaFKb)

252 I don't think I have ever used an oven in my adult life where I didn't end up burning some part of my body. Only small burns but every single time. Just finished putting potatoes in the oven for greek lemon potatoes and of course I brushed my index finger against a rack. ouch.

I think I'm finely roasted, just different parts, over a thirty year span.

Posted by: banana Dream at August 29, 2024 05:19 PM (Y6IkP)

253 I suppose they would include far better shots.
Posted by: BlackOrchid

Your average National Guard soldier shoots about 60 bullets a year to qualify with his rifle, hitting human torso-sized silhouettes at 100-400 meters. The dead sniper grazed Trump's ear at what, 120 yards, only due to a sudden head shift by Trump? I think the shooter was probably a decent shot, and just got unlucky at the moment of truth.

Posted by: Military Moron at August 29, 2024 05:19 PM (JCZqz)

254 The average IQ in the United States is 98..

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (PCK5/)
---
... and falling...
Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (krQz2)


GERONIMO!!!!!!

Posted by: US Intelligence at August 29, 2024 05:20 PM (Zz0t1)

255 The average IQ in the United States is 98..

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (PCK5/)
---
... and falling...

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (krQz2)
_______________

Que?

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:20 PM (YqDXo)

256 >>Harris has Taken Narrow Lead over Trump. WSJ Poll Finds

Voters have largely positive views of Democratic nominee, who gets 48% compared to 47% for Republican Donald Trump

WASHINGTON—Kamala Harris has stepped out of the shadow of her role as the Biden administration vice president and has established herself as a candidate who voters view largely in positive terms, giving her a narrow lead in the presidential election against Donald Trump, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds.

- More comedy at the WSJ article.

Posted by: Vengeance at August 29, 2024 05:20 PM (1AuZD)

257 So, Harris is going down.

Seems to be her thing.

Posted by: 29Victor at August 29, 2024 05:20 PM (TL7UX)

258 Remember also, Kamala is Biden's revenge move on the Democrats for the coup they staged on him. "Want to dump me, well eat this shit sandwich, fools." By election day, they are going to wish they had Biden back.

Posted by: An Observation sez China Joe not my president at August 29, 2024 05:20 PM (Da7Vv)

259 Isn't the Surgeon General on board with this?

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at August 29, 2024 05:11 PM (7fElN)

All camp locations are in blue states, where Democrats decide legality.

We now offer a Ryan Gosling look-alike for the Forced Contraception and Escape to Abortion package. Call one of our agents for details!

Posted by: Handmaid's Tale Fantasy Camp at August 29, 2024 05:20 PM (w6EFb)

260 "It's shipping off to Emoryville, CA, which is somewhere near San Francisco"

Right across the Bay Bridge, tiny little thing nestled in among Oakland and Berkeley.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 29, 2024 05:21 PM (KAi1n)

261 It's by Oakland /Berkley
Posted by: It's me donna at August 29, 2024 05:18 PM (IyPmt)

That's full blown communist territory. I hope this guy checked with the Commissar of Cars in his neighborhood commune to see if it's approved.

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 05:21 PM (VP9ao)

262 >>>Didn't care for his character in Dodge Ball.

I never really liked Dodge Ball, and I'm a big fan of Vince Vaughn. I mean, it was fine for a by-the-book silly underdog sports movie, but.... gee it sure gets mentioned an awful lot for a movie that was just fine.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:21 PM (KRtlO)

263 BREAKING: President Trump says he will protect IVF treatments & have them paid for by government or insurance companies if elected - NBC


Posted by: Mark1971

==
These are the times I like Trump. I dont care what voter this "loses", it's a dumb hill to die on.

I'm not sure I had even heard of IVF ever even being a political issue until a few weeks ago.

Posted by: Lacra at August 29, 2024 05:22 PM (4pwAx)

264 The average IQ in the United States is 98..

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (PCK5/)
---
... and falling...

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:16 PM (krQz2)
______________

Say what?

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:22 PM (YqDXo)

265 I'm taking a short break so I'm going to be lazy and not read the comments. Wondering a couple things. Why is his polling model famous? He got a couple presidential elections correct. He blew it in 2016. How'd he do with the 22 midterms? Is this still 538 or is he independent? I thought he left 538 last year. ABC bought 538 in 2017. Silver worked for ABC news up until last year. There a few in the polling world who think he's biased as hell. I think I'm going to agree with them If Dave is around, correct me if I'm wrong. I think most polls being publicized are weighed democratic.

Posted by: Sock Monkey * unburdened at August 29, 2024 05:22 PM (jC7hV)

266 A one point lead in a national poll coming out of the convention is not good for Harris.

Posted by: Mark1971 at August 29, 2024 05:22 PM (xPl2J)

267 Kamala has lost that joyful feeling?

Posted by: Anna Puma at August 29, 2024 05:22 PM (KfXOG)

268 @190

>>Even if it's a strange mess,

I'm calling it now, it's going to a masterpiece.

Posted by: Thomas Bender at August 29, 2024 05:23 PM (XV/Pl)

269 Go listen to Mark Halperin, no friend of Trump or Republicans. You will be a lot less depressed.

Posted by: JackStraw at August 29, 2024 05:23 PM (LkLld)

270 This is all BS there isn’t any people left that haven’t made their mind up at this point. This is just all window dressing to cover up the steal.

Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 29, 2024 05:23 PM (6dvDu)

271 Trump campaign should run ads 24/7 of working mothers grocery shopping. Divide each ad in half, the first half shopping in 2020, the second half, shopping in 2024.

Posted by: mrp at August 29, 2024 05:23 PM (rj6Yv)

272 228 The average IQ in the United States is 98..
Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (PCK5/)

I bet half of Americans believe in leprechauns.

Posted by: CaliGirl at August 29, 2024 05:23 PM (tMjDM)

273 My boss works out of our Emeryville office. I'm just a little satellite down here in Watsonville AKA Little Tecate.
(Salinas is Little Tijuana)

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 05:24 PM (v0R5T)

274 I never really liked Dodge Ball, and I'm a big fan of Vince Vaughn. I mean, it was fine for a by-the-book silly underdog sports movie, but.... gee it sure gets mentioned an awful lot for a movie that was just fine.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:21 PM (KRtlO)
---
I pretty much agree. The cast was really good, and there are plenty of quotables. But my favorite Vince Vaughn movie was Couples Retreat.

Posted by: Pug Mahon, Flightless Icky Weirdo at August 29, 2024 05:24 PM (Ad8y9)

275 I would argue the WSJ Poll is exactly what they are going for. They’ve hidden Harris’ real record and views and exchanged them for a media built image and press releases from her campaign.

People haven’t even heard the woman speak and her favorability went up. With shallow people who know nothing about her.

Posted by: Vengeance at August 29, 2024 05:24 PM (1AuZD)

276 If anyone is interested, check out the world by country IQ scores…. pretty “ interesting” I suppose the word to use..

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:25 PM (PCK5/)

277 >>>Didn't care for his character in Dodge Ball.

I never really liked Dodge Ball, and I'm a big fan of Vince Vaughn. I mean, it was fine for a by-the-book silly underdog sports movie, but.... gee it sure gets mentioned an awful lot for a movie that was just fine.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:21 PM (KRtlO)
---
It had some good gags in it.

Like the five-Ds, and the wrench thing.

The ending is a little meh, because it was made because the bad-guys-win ending was almost unanimously hated in screening.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:25 PM (krQz2)

278 272 228 The average IQ in the United States is 98..
Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:15 PM (PCK5/)

I bet half of Americans believe in leprechauns.
Posted by: CaliGirl at August 29, 2024 05:23 PM (tMjDM)

Only those Bog Irish…

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:25 PM (PCK5/)

279 I bet half of Americans believe in leprechauns.
Posted by: CaliGirl at August 29, 2024 05:23 PM (tMjDM)
---
I used to. Not anymore. Little shit let me down.

Posted by: Pug Mahon, Flightless Icky Weirdo at August 29, 2024 05:26 PM (Ad8y9)

280 Kamala has lost that joyful feeling?
Posted by: Anna Puma
......

You lost that joyful' feelin'
Whoa, that joyful' feelin'
You lost that joyful' feelin'
Now it's gone, gone, gone, whoa-oh

Posted by: wth at August 29, 2024 05:26 PM (v0R5T)

281 I think the shooter was probably a decent shot, and just got unlucky at the moment of truth.

There was a congressman who backed that up. He said he had only fired an AR once in his life, he used a red dot like Crooks, lying on a sloped roof at the same distance, and 15 of his 16 attempts were kill shots.

Posted by: An Observation sez China Joe not my president at August 29, 2024 05:26 PM (Da7Vv)

282 The average IQ is supposed to be 100. We can’t even do that right.

Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 29, 2024 05:26 PM (6dvDu)

283 While they go through a lot of material, check out the People’s Pundit on Mondays at Rumble with Barris and Barnes. They have lots of persuasive evidence that even mainstream polling averages like RCP leave a lot to be desired. I think Dave in Fla sometimes looks them over. (Not saying he either approves or disapproves.)

PA won’t be so simple for Cackler.

Posted by: electronic means at August 29, 2024 05:26 PM (yAL3Q)

284 276 If anyone is interested, check out the world by country IQ scores…. pretty “ interesting” I suppose the word to use..
Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:25 PM (PCK5/)

To your point, if "migrants" from South Korea or Lichenstein started pouring across the southern border, the machine gun ammunition would be exhausted in a matter of minutes.

Posted by: Trump poisoned my cat at August 29, 2024 05:27 PM (KSNKu)

285 >>>I pretty much agree. The cast was really good, and there are plenty of quotables. But my favorite Vince Vaughn movie was Couples Retreat.

I would not put that near the top of my VV list but yeah, that movie is very, very underrated. it gets no credit, despite being almost great-ish.

The scene where Jon Favreau conspires to get a massage from a woman, then tries to get a happy ending... so funny.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:27 PM (KRtlO)

286 The average IQ is supposed to be 100. We can’t even do that right.

Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 29, 2024 05:26 PM (6dvDu)
---
America's best days are behind us.

Posted by: Jimmy Carter at August 29, 2024 05:27 PM (krQz2)

287 Trump campaign should run ads 24/7 of working mothers grocery shopping. Divide each ad in half, the first half shopping in 2020, the second half, shopping in 2024.

I like this take on it https://tinyurl.com/yk2un7y8

Posted by: 18-1 at August 29, 2024 05:28 PM (oZhjI)

288
The entire Nate Silver/538/Rasmussen thing is quite a story.

Cliff Notes: (My version) The leftists took over 538 from the statistician (Nate Silver) and wanted one of the most accurate pollsters (Rasmussen) gone.

Posted by: Divide by Zero at August 29, 2024 05:29 PM (RKVpM)

289 >>>I would not put that near the top of my VV list but yeah, that movie is very, very underrated. it gets no credit, despite being almost great-ish.

a big underrated VV: the one where he finds out Kevin James' wife is cheating on him. The Dilemma.

Not a great movie, but oh my lord, this scene:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sURhgulh7E

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:29 PM (KRtlO)

290 The JOY and exuberance has faded ... because she has no real policy statements, no interviews ... she just tries to adopt Trump policy now.

They hope people might think they will get border control, but without the yucky Trump racist/rapist. But they can't quite convince the people that Harris has not been VP and Border Czar.

The media pathetic gaslighting and flip flops also weakens their stranglehold on All Truth.

Posted by: illiniwek at August 29, 2024 05:29 PM (Cus5s)

291 the Break-Up is another underrated VV gem. Not a full comedy, but funny, and affecting in its more serious parts.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:30 PM (KRtlO)

292 LOL.

As sitting VP, Kamala's CNN outtakes might be FOIA-able!

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:30 PM (krQz2)

293 270 This is all BS there isn’t any people left that haven’t made their mind up at this point.
Posted by: sniffybigtoe

State by state polling is very volatile because a) nowadays, a lot of no name boiler room types are involved for the money; b) a lot of them do not disclose their secret sauce in weighting data; c) cost of having a large enough sample. It takes the same 1200 peeps or so to sample in a state, more if there is some significant minority representation so that you can oversample them taht it does in a national poll. Now, add in the fact that using rdd has the area code problem where the area code of the cell phone may not match the state anymore so your respondent that you think is in PA is actually in DE and so on.

Reliable polls that have done state polling for years are your best bet to pick one and then watch that particular poll (like Emerson) for trends. If you triangulate with candidate appearances in that state, that indicates Emerson's results correspond with internal polling. Then use the national polling from your chosen reputable established pollster to give a crosscheck to the other two. State polling is usually a lagging indicator from nationals.

Posted by: whig at August 29, 2024 05:30 PM (kW+z9)

294 Y'all, Trump ....

Is now saying Biden killed those 13 in Afghanistan, Harris killed those 13, by their incompetence.

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at August 29, 2024 05:30 PM (rK75L)

295 The scene where Jon Favreau conspires to get a massage from a woman, then tries to get a happy ending... so funny.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:27 PM (KRtlO)

Heh. I also like when they stumble on Stcanley with a C playing Rock Star.

I may need to watch this stupid movie again.

Posted by: Pug Mahon, Flightless Icky Weirdo at August 29, 2024 05:30 PM (Ad8y9)

296 The average IQ is supposed to be 100. We can’t even do that right.

Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 29, 2024 05:26 PM (6dvDu)
_________________

It is in Europe. Our median IQ used to be 100, but has mysteriously declined to 98 over the years.

(0.85*100 + 0.15*85)/(0.85 + 0.15) = 97.75

Does that clear up the situation?

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:30 PM (YqDXo)

297 276 If anyone is interested, check out the world by country IQ scores…. pretty “ interesting” I suppose the word to use..
Posted by: tubal

I haven't looked, but I bet the results for Palestine and Israel will upset all the right people.

Posted by: Moron Analyst at August 29, 2024 05:31 PM (JCZqz)

298 Besides fraud ballots I am still sure it's electronic hacking in counting votes

Posted by: Skip at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (fwDg9)

299 Salinas is Little Tijuana

During motorcycle races in nearby Monterey, dinner at mex joint in Salinas, saw a cowboy use his coffee to shave with. Straight razor too.

Posted by: Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (t59Wi)

300 Kamala says ' Climate is an urgent matter to which we should apply metric to include holding ourselves to deadlines around time'.
+++
Kumala thinks that metric is a word that smart people use. So, she wanted to impress us.
Next we'll be hearing about paradigms and synergy.
You know. Smart people words.

Posted by: Florida Peasant at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (Lo97M)

301 >>>Heh. I also like when they stumble on Stcanley with a C playing Rock Star.

oh yeah, that's huge. Also the movie is just a great fantasy. It looks like a screen saver. Just amazing Tahiti (or Bali, whatever) scenery front-to-back. Well, once they leave frigid chicago, anyway.

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (KRtlO)

302 Some countries’ averages are in the fifties and sixties…

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (PCK5/)

303 I never really liked Dodge Ball, and I'm a big fan of Vince Vaughn. I mean, it was fine for a by-the-book silly underdog sports movie, but.... gee it sure gets mentioned an awful lot for a movie that was just fine.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:21 PM (KRtlO)
———-

Agree and it could have been so much better. Did anyone making the movie ever actually play the game? I have funnier stories from real life then were in the movie.

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 29, 2024 05:33 PM (WV8e4)

304 Vice Vaughn in The Dilemma:

"I know where you live, Danny. I want that to register in your tattooed head. I know where you live! I'm A PROBLEM!"

"I'll burn your face, Danny! I can't wait! I can't wait till I get the lighter up close to you and BURN YOUR LITTLE FACE, DANNY!"

Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:33 PM (KRtlO)

305 Greg Price
@greg_price11
The U.S. Army released a statement today condemning President Trump, saying it’s illegal to conduct political activities at Arlington Cemetery.

Here’s a Joe Biden political ad from 2020 featuring a video of him standing over a tomb in Section 60 at Arlington, which the Army had nothing to say about at the time.

Yet they condemn Trump despite the fact the Gold Star families invited him and gave him permission to take pictures.

Posted by: Mister Ghost at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (TGPs7)

306 Some countries’ averages are in the fifties and sixties…

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (PCK5/)
__________________

Clearly we need to import more of those people. Redistribute the IQ points and all.

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (YqDXo)

307 282 The average IQ is supposed to be 100. We can’t even do that right.
Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 29, 2024 05:26 PM (6dvDu)

In 2024, the average IQ in the US for Caucasians is 100. For blacks in the US, the average is 85. From the World Population Review:

" The United States has an average IQ of 98, according to the latest data from 2022. Males in the U.S. have a slightly higher average IQ than females, with males averaging 99 and females averaging 97. The average IQ for Caucasians in the U.S. is 100, while the average IQ for African Americans is 85.Jun 5, 2024"

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (VP9ao)

308
900,000 veterans who call Pennsylvania their home state may not be so enamored of a VP with stolen valor or a President (right) who wants to take away their toys.

Kamala and Madonna need a historic very sloppy c_ck s_cking tour of the 'Keystone State' to have a chance.

/ missing vowels, o, and u. No need to buy. Or 50/50, or call your friend Tim Walz.

Posted by: Divide by Zero at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (RKVpM)

309 I didn't know if I was for open borders and communism, but now that a second-tier comic actor has told me what to think I'm totally on board. I'd say "I'm with Her," except I'm not an expert so ai can't really be sure she's a woman. Maybe Ben will tell me.

Posted by: Help me, Simple Ben, you're my only hope at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (cBvpj)

310 Oh, btw, watch for a possible shock at the gas pumps.

Libyan warlord controlling the oil wells has threatened to cut off oil sales from Libya. Oil will go higher if he carries through the threat from about $80bbl the last time I checked on Friday which will lead to higher gas prices at the pump in time for election season.

Posted by: whig at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (kW+z9)

311 Some tweets by Pete Bernegger regarding what the TITAN system found for active voter registration in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (there are several more tweets covering GA, MN, CO, Maryland, Nevada, and Travis County, Texas):

Wisconsin (Aug 19, 2024 tweet):
748,165 active registrations with issues
https://x.com/PeterBernegger/status/1825559985884938313

Pennsylvania (July 17, 2024 tweet):
1,420,435 active registrations with issues
https://x.com/PeterBernegger/status/1813514334833660208

Michigan (Aug 6, 2024 tweet):
1,759,656 active registrations with issues
https://x.com/PeterBernegger/status/1820961172440408107

Posted by: Sasquatch, the Original Trans-Wookie at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (bowLP)

312 I'm voting for Gus Hall.

Posted by: Orson at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (dIske)

313
The Harris campaign will be like Mad Libs with the MSM filling in all the blanks.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (1Nxff)

314 Next we'll be hearing about paradigms and synergy.
You know. Smart people words.
Posted by: Florida Peasant at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (Lo97M)

"Pearadigum" and "signenergy" without an earpiece. You know that would happen.

Posted by: Trump poisoned my cat at August 29, 2024 05:35 PM (KSNKu)

315 306 Some countries’ averages are in the fifties and sixties…

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (PCK5/)
__________________

Clearly we need to import more of those people. Redistribute the IQ points and all.
Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (YqDXo)

Lol… they’d probably try…

Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:35 PM (PCK5/)

316 Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (VP9ao)

See #296

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:36 PM (YqDXo)

317 oh yeah, that's huge. Also the movie is just a great fantasy. It looks like a screen saver. Just amazing Tahiti (or Bali, whatever) scenery front-to-back. Well, once they leave frigid chicago, anyway.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (KRtlO)

My favorite scene: Vince's kid taking a dump in the display toilet.

As an aside, my wife liked the Spanish dude. I'll allow it, since I was crushing on Vince's wife.

Posted by: Pug Mahon, Flightless Icky Weirdo at August 29, 2024 05:36 PM (Ad8y9)

318 There’s a big, black man inside of me, struggling to get out!

Posted by: Ben Stiller at August 29, 2024 05:36 PM (YTKVM)

319 Good analysis Whig. Thanks

Posted by: Sock Monkey * unburdened at August 29, 2024 05:36 PM (jC7hV)

320
900,000 veterans who call Pennsylvania their home state may not be so enamored of a VP with stolen valor or a President (right) who wants to take away their toys.

Never underestimate the blind stupidity of PA voters. They'll vote like they've always voted because they've always voted that way.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:36 PM (1Nxff)

321 Males in the U.S. have a slightly higher average IQ than females, with males averaging 99 and females averaging 97.
---
But there's so much Grrrrl Pwr on college campuses!!!

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:37 PM (krQz2)

322 Gas prices will be fine. They’re just shaking down the Biden admin for a few billion. Plus there’s the Strategic Election Reserve for democrats.

Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 29, 2024 05:37 PM (6dvDu)

323 >Heh. I also like when they stumble on Stcanley with a C playing Rock Star.

oh yeah, that's huge. Also the movie is just a great fantasy. It looks like a screen saver. Just amazing Tahiti (or Bali, whatever) scenery front-to-back. Well, once they leave frigid chicago, anyway.
Posted by: ace at August 29, 2024 05:32 PM (KRtlO)
———

Bora Bora. IIRC, the resort where the movie was shot is an actual resort, but crazy expensive. Duh.

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 29, 2024 05:37 PM (WV8e4)

324 I'm voting for Gus Hall.
Posted by: Orson

Gus Hall is voting for Kamala.

Posted by: Sock Monkey * unburdened at August 29, 2024 05:37 PM (jC7hV)

325 The U.S. Army released a statement today condemning President Trump, saying it’s illegal to conduct political activities at Arlington Cemetery.
-----------
Everybody in the Army above O-6 needs to be canned.

Posted by: Captain Obvious, Laird o' the Sea, Radioactive Knight, Concertina Czar at August 29, 2024 05:38 PM (VdhcA)

326 Clearly we need to import more of those people. Redistribute the IQ points and all.
Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:34 PM (YqDXo)

Lol… they’d probably try…
Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:35 PM (PCK5/)

_________________________________

I'm going to suggest that we recruit from the Nubian Peninsula in Egypt. Last time they checked, the consanguinity ratio was over 75% (pssst....that's incest). I always wondered what the Egyptian equivalent of banjo music sounded like.

Posted by: Orson at August 29, 2024 05:38 PM (dIske)

327 I'm voting for Gus Hall.
Posted by: Orson
---
He needs somebody to monitor him.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:38 PM (krQz2)

328
When's Miss Lindsay going to say something stupid in order to screw up the Senate elections?

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:38 PM (1Nxff)

329 Never underestimate the blind stupidity of PA voters. They'll vote like they've always voted because they've always voted that way.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh

"uNiOn StRoNg~!"

Posted by: weft cut-loop at August 29, 2024 05:38 PM (IG4Id)

330 Is now saying Biden killed those 13 in Afghanistan, Harris killed those 13, by their incompetence.

Someone gave the ok for the attack. It wasn't Harris.

Posted by: t-bird at August 29, 2024 05:39 PM (1ilEC)

331 Ace, the Harris campaign's own internal polls have her down across all the sun belt states and Trump ahead in PA. And Rich Baris did not find any bounce for her coming out of the convention.

Posted by: Serious Cat at August 29, 2024 05:39 PM (TaHi/)

332 When's Miss Lindsay going to say something stupid in order to screw up the Senate elections?
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:38 PM (1Nxff)
---
There are 2 whole months until the election.

He can wait for an October stinker.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:39 PM (krQz2)

333 Wait, the Harris and Walz Good Time Happy Hour interview is ... 18 minutes?

That can't be right

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at August 29, 2024 05:39 PM (WNKyE)

334 324 I'm voting for Gus Hall.
Posted by: Orson

Gus Hall is voting for Kamala.
Posted by: Sock Monkey * unburdened at August 29, 2024 05:37 PM (jC7hV)
______________________

I was going to point out that Gus Hall is dead...then I reconsidered and agree...yeah, he'll be voting for KaMAAALa

Posted by: Orson at August 29, 2024 05:39 PM (dIske)

335 Never underestimate the blind stupidity of PA voters. They'll vote like they've always voted because they've always voted that way.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:36 PM (1Nxff)

======

I still run into old white guys who vote Democrat. It makes me wonder how many white cucks there are in South Africa who still support the ANC because of muh apartheid..

Posted by: Lurker at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (YTKVM)

336 >>> 274 I never really liked Dodge Ball, and I'm a big fan of Vince Vaughn.

I think he got canceled since he's not woke. I wonder if people like Ben Stiller talk to him still, or lost his number.

Posted by: LizLem at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (eYss7)

337 That climate quote from Kammie- is that real

cuz it sounds 3-ply stupid

Posted by: Don Black at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (/7KEl)

338 Everybody in the Army above O-6 needs to be canned.
Posted by: Captain Obvious, Laird o' the Sea, Radioactive Knight, Concertina Czar at August 29, 2024 05:38 PM (VdhcA)

We need one Colonel with a sash to lead when we take over.

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (VP9ao)

339 Posted by: tubal at August 29, 2024 05:35 PM (PCK5/)

My immigration policy is simple. Men get in if they are able bodied and test at 115 IQ or higher. Women get in if they are a 8 regardless of IQ. No one else.

Posted by: Ted Torgerson Trump Vance 2024 at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (wGerL)

340 When's Miss Lindsay going to say something stupid in order to screw up the Senate elections?
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:38 PM (1Nxff)

Some time after Labor Day, most likely. He's most likely ass-deep in poon, like Paul Stanley and Gene Simmons.

Or not.

Posted by: Pug Mahon, Flightless Icky Weirdo at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (Ad8y9)

341 324 I'm voting for Gus Hall.
Posted by: Orson

Gus Hall is voting for Kamala.
Posted by: Sock Monkey

Annie Hall > Gus Hall

Posted by: Movie Moron at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (JCZqz)

342
Never underestimate the blind stupidity of PA voters. They'll vote like they've always voted because they've always voted that way.

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at August 29, 2024 05:36 PM

I wish some future (R) legislature carves Philly out of the Electoral Vote process, gives them 3 EV's and tells them to fvck off.

Solid red state with a bright blue corner on the lower right.

Posted by: Divide by Zero at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (RKVpM)

343 They'll vote like they've always voted because they've always voted that way.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh

So stupid that 900,000 ballots had to be shipped in to 'adjust the model'? Yessir!

Posted by: t-bird at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (1ilEC)

344 I was going to point out that Gus Hall is dead...then I reconsidered and agree...yeah, he'll be voting for KaMAAALa
Posted by: Orson

In a moron 100 yd dash, you and I would be neck and neck for last place.

Posted by: Sock Monkey * unburdened at August 29, 2024 05:41 PM (jC7hV)

345 286 The national average IQ is going down because we are importing people from low IQ places: Africa, Latin America, and the non-Israeli Middle East.

Posted by: Field Marshal Zhukov at August 29, 2024 05:41 PM (wBaIH)

346 My immigration policy is simple. Men get in if they are able bodied and test at 115 IQ or higher. Women get in if they are a 8 regardless of IQ. No one else.
Posted by: Ted Torgerson Trump Vance 2024 at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (wGerL)

I'm pretty sure that's already written in Project 2025.

Posted by: jwest at August 29, 2024 05:41 PM (VP9ao)

347 Gus Hall? the guy what invented Sniglets?

Posted by: Pug Mahon, Flightless Icky Weirdo at August 29, 2024 05:41 PM (Ad8y9)

348 I'm going to suggest that we recruit from the Nubian Peninsula in Egypt. Last time they checked, the consanguinity ratio was over 75% (pssst....that's incest). I always wondered what the Egyptian equivalent of banjo music sounded like.

Posted by: Orson at August 29, 2024 05:38 PM (dIske)
_________________

You know where consanguinity reigns ... well ... not triumphant, prevalent? In the Muslim world. The considerable majority of marriages in, e.g., Pakistan are consanguineous. With the predictable dire results.

A must-see:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkxuKe2wOMs

Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:41 PM (YqDXo)

349 "the consanguinity ratio was over 75% (pssst....that's incest)."

That's practically masturbatory cloning.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 29, 2024 05:42 PM (KAi1n)

350 I'm voting for Gus Hall.
Posted by: Orson

Gus Hall is voting for Kamala.
Posted by: Sock Monkey

Annie Hall > Gus Hall
Posted by: Movie Moron at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (JCZqz)
-----------
Gus has been dead for 24 years.

Posted by: Captain Obvious, Laird o' the Sea, Radioactive Knight, Concertina Czar at August 29, 2024 05:42 PM (VdhcA)

351 Nood Harris

Posted by: Zeera the ungoverened at August 29, 2024 05:44 PM (sfs3+)

352 Huntz Hall > Monty Hall > Annie Hall > Gus Hall

Posted by: electronic means at August 29, 2024 05:44 PM (yAL3Q)

353 So today, Trump:
Gave a interview in FL
Flew to MI, gave an interview backstage
Is off to WI, and will likely give another interview.

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at August 29, 2024 05:44 PM (WNKyE)

354 Gus has been dead for 24 years.
Posted by: Captain Obvious

So?

Posted by: SFGoth at August 29, 2024 05:44 PM (KAi1n)

355 You know where consanguinity reigns ... well ... not triumphant, prevalent? In the Muslim world. The considerable majority of marriages in, e.g., Pakistan are consanguineous. With the predictable dire results.

A must-see:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkxuKe2wOMs
Posted by: Deplorable Jay Guevara at August 29, 2024 05:41 PM (YqDXo)

_______________________

Oh no you don't. I'm not watching that. Too close to dinner time. BTW...try this search cluster on Google: "physical defects, newborns, United Kingdom" I'm sure you can parse out what the results will be. It's a major growing problem there.

Posted by: Orson at August 29, 2024 05:44 PM (dIske)

356 Gus has been dead for 24 years.

Posted by: Captain Obvious, Laird o' the Sea, Radioactive Knight, Concertina Czar at August 29, 2024 05:42 PM (VdhcA)
---
So he *is* voting for Kamala.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:45 PM (krQz2)

357 Women get in if they are a 8 regardless of IQ. No one else.
Posted by: Ted Torgerson Trump Vance 2024 at August 29, 2024 05:40 PM (wGerL)

I’m still in!

Wait., that’s out of 100, right?

Posted by: Ayn Rand at August 29, 2024 05:45 PM (YTKVM)

358 You know where consanguinity reigns ... well ... not triumphant, prevalent? In the Muslim world. The considerable majority of marriages in, e.g., Pakistan are consanguineous. With the predictable dire results.
----------
I don't get it.

Posted by: Carlos II at August 29, 2024 05:45 PM (VdhcA)

359
Governor Josh Shapiro (D) (Jewish which is why he's not the VP choice) running for President in 2028?

Throw that into the mix.

I can't call it. But it's gonna get real interesting at 3 am Election Night.

Posted by: Divide by Zero at August 29, 2024 05:46 PM (RKVpM)

360 Gus has been dead for 24 years.
Posted by: Captain Obvious,

I must be doing the moron subtly thing wrong. Does Ace have a FAQ section?

Posted by: Sock Monkey * unburdened at August 29, 2024 05:46 PM (jC7hV)

361 I don't get it.
Posted by: Carlos II at August 29, 2024 05:45 PM (VdhcA)
---
Talk to your wife.

Posted by: Axeman at August 29, 2024 05:46 PM (krQz2)

362 Gus has probably not missed a vote since he died

Posted by: Skip at August 29, 2024 05:47 PM (fwDg9)

363 A must-see:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkxuKe2wOMs

WTH?! Never heard of this. 75% marry their first cousin?

Posted by: t-bird at August 29, 2024 05:47 PM (zMQny)

364 319 Good analysis Whig. Thanks
Posted by: Sock Monkey
======
You are welcome. I see a lot of people that read the media and despite knowing that they lie all the time, assume this time it is correct because it agrees with their feelings on the matter.

I am rusty in application on the stats but not in theory nor in practice of survey research. Social science has the problem of really crappy data from survey which is why you should always triangulate any such data to real world touchstones like candidate travel (as a proxy for internal polling) and national poll trend of one poll to indicate movement that might affect state polling.

Doing this stuff is hard because unlike natural sciences, social sciences have human data with volition making any inferences difficult.

Posted by: whig at August 29, 2024 05:55 PM (kW+z9)

365 I still run into old white guys who vote Democrat. It makes me wonder how many white cucks there are in South Africa who still support the ANC because of muh apartheid..
Posted by: Lurker
=============
The old white guys are boomer or silents that will not be with us much longer except as ballots.

Basically, at a certain point in the elderly, a lot of them quit learning and coast on what they've absorbed through a lifetime which is also an early predictor of dementia.

Posted by: whig at August 29, 2024 05:58 PM (kW+z9)

366 nood

Posted by: weft cut-loop at August 29, 2024 06:01 PM (IG4Id)

367
President Trump says he will protect IVF treatments & have them paid for by government or insurance companies if elected

More government handout and/or mandate.

Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at August 29, 2024 06:07 PM (63Dwl)

368 And he still thinks she's likely to win the national popular vote -- but not by so much as to lock up the electoral college.
-----

Fuck, dude. The Electoral College is the popular vote.

Each state is a little country, voting for the leader of all 50 countries. Jesus.

Posted by: insurgens ad opus at August 29, 2024 06:12 PM (40F+c)

369 any pollster who talks about the "national popular vote" is an idiot ... the Dems always win Ca and NY by millions upon millions of votes ... doesn't change the electoral map one iota ... in fact any good pollster under polls dems in Ca and NY to make up for the bias a simple 50 state poll creates ...

Posted by: The Dark Lord at August 29, 2024 06:40 PM (DBAaD)

370 good grief ... if DeSantis was the candidate you'd be crowing about these polls ... you are such a transparent poor loser ...

Posted by: The Dark Lord at August 29, 2024 06:42 PM (DBAaD)

371 The spin they tried with a poll on Yahoo the other day wasn't that Trump was losing, but that his supporters think he is going to lose. Well yeah because his supporters know that the dems are working overtime to get 100,000 illegal ballots in every swing state.

Another poll was in MI where they had Kamala winning by 1, with a +25 Dem poll, which is +10 over the best dem estimate. They also had Trump winning independents by +50, but still losing. So expect every poll until atleast mid October to be weighed that badly, because they need to set the groundwork for the steal

Posted by: Rbastid at August 29, 2024 06:46 PM (kAe11)

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