Schmolls: Paxton and Collins Up Over Their Weirdo Opponents

Paxton is up according to his own campaign poll.

People scoff at campaign polls. But campaign polls are real polls, unlike media polls, which are cheaply done just for clicks. Campaign polls have real money and effort put into them.

The problem is that the campaign can withhold all the polls that show them down and then release the one poll that shows them up. I assume that happens all the time. All the time.

That said, at least the last poll of likely voters has Paxton up:

A new poll of likely voters shows Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico 48% to 45% in the Texas U.S. Senate race.
The Pulse Decision Science survey, conducted Sept. 24-27, was identified as a Republican internal poll.

Trump boosted Paxton:

"He is unbelievable. He is a loyal, hardworking character. Ken's one of the best state attorney generals in the entire country. He has been for the last many years and frankly he's gonna go down as one of the best ever," Trump said in a video.

The RCP poll of polls says the Collins is up over the replacement for Maine Fuhrer.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, has reclaimed the lead in her reelection bid, not merely in a single poll, but in a major polling aggregator.
As of press time, Collins led former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson by 0.2% in the RealClearPolitics polling average. That metric includes six surveys, three of which show Collins leading. One InsiderAdvantage survey shows the race tied while two show Jackson with a lead.
Notably, none of the three most recent surveys show Jackson leading the contest.

In hard left Minnesota, the ultra-left-wing lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan -- who wore a t-shirt with the motto "PROTECT TRANS RIGHTS" written on a combat knife -- is up only a single point over Republican Michelle Tafoya.

The InsiderAdvantage survey found that 46 percent of likely voters in the state supported Flanagan, while Tafoya garnered 45 percent support.
Matt Towery, a pollster with InsiderAdvantage, called the survey results "unusual" for a race in a blue-leaning state, noting outgoing Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's (D) waning approval ratings and a widespread fraud scandal in the state as possible contributing factors to this close race.
"Tafoya does extremely well with men and Flanagan is losing every age group other than the youngest of voters, who in the poll have a significant 'enthusiasm about voting' gap versus other age groups who are more enthusiastic," Towery said in a statement.

CNN's Harry Enten points out that Republicans typically outperform their September polls by five points -- which means the Republicans would hold the Senate with a 50 50 split and Vance as a tiebreaker.

Let's do better than that.

CNN asks 'What if the polls are wrong?' and notes that Republicans have performed September polls by 5 points in the last few cycles:

Harry Enten: "Lets just say that the GOP outperforms the polls like they did 2018 , 2024, you get a 50/50 senate with JD Vance casting a tie… pic.twitter.com/DQMgnD20cg
— Eric Abbenante (@EricAbbenante) October 1, 2026

Because you stomp on my face when I post schmolls, here's a column from Kurt Schlichter on what I'll call the Twilight of the Cucks.

The Last Stand of Rove, Cornyn, and the Establishment Frauds

Twenty years ago, people would've thought you were crazy if you told them that Karl Rove would be welcomed onto the pages of the regime media to announce that his powerful principles require him to vote for a Democrat who believes you should carve up little boys and girls to conform to the trendy gender delusions of their Munchausen mommies. But in 2026, when he did that, nobody was surprised. Nobody was shocked. After all, betrayal is the old Republican establishment's brand.
Rove and his ilk claim that taking sides against us is mandated by their principles. What principles? We understand what the principles of our alleged betters in the conservative (sic) movement really are. They're not a set of rigid standards that must be adhered to at all costs and hazards; they're a joke, a ploy to manipulate the rubes, moral Calvinball for people who demand our respect and obedience yet hold us in utter contempt.
But of course, Karl Rove isn't alone. The doddering has-been is just emblematic of a particularly pernicious political type that those of us who actually believe in something beyond our own prosperity, prestige, and power have been trying to exile from the GOP for decades. All this stuff about the gentlemen of the Republican Party, the compassionate conservatives, the sensible adults in the room, has been revealed to be a lie, but it was always a lie. It was always a scam. When they speak of principles, they're talking about arbitrary and amorphous guidelines that they impose from on high to control you. But those principles never apply to them. Why, the idea that they should be bound by any guardrails is profoundly insulting to them. They are beyond such common limitations. You, however, are absolutely bound to them, like a serf to his master's fields.
And here's the not-so-surprising part. Those principles they always talk about? Somehow, those principles always end up reinforcing the power of the failed GOP establishment at the expense of the GOP base. And those principles always require that we give up our interests, our rights, and our prosperity. Pretty convenient, huh? Tell me one establishment GOP principle that helps us in the base at the expense of those at the peak of the pyramid, and I'll show you a unicorn.
There's no such thing as a unicorn.
...
Uh, no. This was just a convenient excuse for them to do what they wanted to do anyway, which is to slap back at the people who dared not to genuflect to them anymore. Do you think Karl Rove would be doing this if anyone at the White House took his calls? Their phony outrage is a convenient excuse.

This fat cuck is hedging his bets:

🚨Just in: Chuck Schumer says Republicans would Steal the Midterms Elections

He said: “Two things could have us to lose. One, they steal the election. The second thing is money. They have obscene amounts of money.” pic.twitter.com/mCTtv5xbfc
— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 1, 2026

I sent that to Jake Tapper. I'm sure he'll want to scold Schumer as he scolded Trump infinitely for saying the 2016 election might be rigged.

Posted by: Disinformation Expert Ace at 02:10 PM

Comments

(Jump to bottom of comments)

1 Polls are for strippers

Posted by: nurse ratched at October 02, 2026 02:12 PM (TRLfq)

2 CNN asks 'What if the polls are wrong?'

===

interesting question !

Posted by: runner at October 02, 2026 02:12 PM (AKptf)

3 And Chuck needs to retire already.

Posted by: nurse ratched at October 02, 2026 02:12 PM (TRLfq)

4
But PredictIt has the Dems up by 20%!!!!!

*RIP Intrade*

Posted by: in before the troll at October 02, 2026 02:13 PM (y9nCu)

5
Debuting in this thread with a hearty "sock off."

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:14 PM (mmrXZ)

6 Any TX Morons have insight on how our boy Herrera is doing down in TX 23?

Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 02, 2026 02:15 PM (/C5Rl)

7 The RCP poll of polls says the Collins is up over the replacement for Maine Fuhrer.

Oh, nice.

Posted by: toby928(c) at October 02, 2026 02:15 PM (4NO2D)

8 Nooded

Posted by: nurse ratched at October 02, 2026 02:15 PM (TRLfq)

9 I saw Doddering Has-Been open for Cracker at Caesar's Palace back in 2024!

Posted by: runner at October 02, 2026 02:16 PM (AKptf)

10 I think the shirt actually said "PROTECT TRANS KIDS" and the knife had a drop of blood on the edge. Really fringe stuff. I can't imagine that'll go over well with the Somalis.

Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 02:16 PM (2ocoG)

11 Maine Fuhrer ... das polls ...

Posted by: toby928(c) tugs collar at October 02, 2026 02:16 PM (4NO2D)

12 Talarico will win the big cities. Fortunately, Texas is more than a couple of cities.

Posted by: huerfano at October 02, 2026 02:17 PM (2Xqig)

13 Black turnout, according to early vote analysis of Ohio, at least, is crashing compared to both 2022 and 2024.

https://x.com/TonerousHyus/status/
2106053573037490586

Either the black electorate is just checking out of politics at a level that should terrify Democrats, or the machinery that artificially kept up black turnout post-Obama is falling apart which should terrify Democrats.

I do not harp on ace for posting about polls because, well, it's something to post about and it's his place.

I just worry about conservatives who, every November, say, "I'm never trusting the polls again," and then come the next summer go, "I'm really worried because of the polls."

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:17 PM (42WUB)

14 In before the strippers?

Posted by: Martin Tell at October 02, 2026 02:17 PM (sFNX2)

15 12 Talarico will win the big cities. Fortunately, Texas is more than a couple of cities.

Posted by: huerfano at October 02, 2026 02:17 PM (2Xqig)

=

He'll lose exurban Texas by like 30 points.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:18 PM (42WUB)

16 10. I can't imagine that'll go over well with the Somalis.
----------------------------------------------------
Somalis will vote (several times) like they're told to. Can't risk deraiing the gravy train.

Posted by: Martin Tell at October 02, 2026 02:19 PM (sFNX2)

17
Schlichter raises the question but I'd really like the answer: What are the Rovians' principles? Yeah, I get they're "a joke, a ploy" etc., but what are they really? Something like "The policies that most people appear to prefer are the correct ones"?

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:19 PM (mmrXZ)

18 Because you stomp on my face when I post schmolls...
=====

As gently as possible.

Posted by: San Franpsycho at October 02, 2026 02:20 PM (RIvkX)

19
Strippers. (sigh)

I miss Joe Mannix.

Posted by: Auspex at October 02, 2026 02:20 PM (Y8DZL)

20 17
Schlichter raises the question but I'd really like the answer: What are the Rovians' principles? Yeah, I get they're "a joke, a ploy" etc., but what are they really? Something like "The policies that most people appear to prefer are the correct ones"?

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:19 PM (mmrXZ)

=======

Help Republicans become Democrats, and when that becomes impossible, help Democrats beat Republicans.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:20 PM (42WUB)

21 >>>The problem is that the campaign can withhold all the polls that show them down and then release the one poll that shows them up.

More than that, they can show them up by the right amount. If that Paxton poll showed him winning in a blowout, that might depress the GOP turnout. After all, if it;'s in the bag, why bother. But, 48 to 45 is a confidence builder, but it's still close. Better come out and do my part!

Posted by: No Name Today at October 02, 2026 02:20 PM (8mulE)

22 I needed a pick me up today. I just have this really sinking feeling about the midterms that it's going to be a 1994 version for Democrats.

Posted by: Leupold at October 02, 2026 02:20 PM (UgMlZ)

23 I assume that happens all the time. All the time.

Mr. O'Spades, this level of cynicism ill-becomes someone who has achieved the level of quality Internet Content provisioning that you have at such a tender age.

Posted by: Duncanthrax at October 02, 2026 02:20 PM (3kXhz)

24 Does Rove write in his ballot on a little white board?

Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at October 02, 2026 02:21 PM (Cqx++)

25
*flustered expression*
*strained voice*

Black and Hispanic men are thundering to the polls to vote for Talarico!

Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at October 02, 2026 02:22 PM (eRlcH)

26 Another Texas Democratic pipe dream going up in smoke. How could anyone vote for James "Lucky Pierre" Talerico?

Posted by: spongeworthy at October 02, 2026 02:22 PM (sLLbN)

27
I do not harp on ace for posting about polls because, well, it's something to post about and it's his place.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison

================

Holding up polls themselves for a sort of meta-scrutiny seems like a good idea. We might find a better way of prognostication, like analyzing trends in social media. AI could help hugely with that.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:22 PM (mmrXZ)

28 -- which means the Republicans would hold the Senate with a 50 50 split and Vance as a tiebreaker.

Pfft. Barely an inconvenience!

Posted by: John Thune (RINO) at October 02, 2026 02:23 PM (3kXhz)

29 Polls are like frat parties with everybody running around with their dicks swinging in the breeze.

I got a poll for you that shows me up by 10.

Posted by: Rev. Wishbone at October 02, 2026 02:23 PM (VQ7/I)

30 Paxon has his problems and Collins is a clownish figure but the people they are up against? Nutjob freaks.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:23 PM (nIKjK)

31 27 Holding up polls themselves for a sort of meta-scrutiny seems like a good idea. We might find a better way of prognostication, like analyzing trends in social media. AI could help hugely with that.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:22 PM (mmrXZ)

========

Gut is better.

Social media is manipulated. Polls are manipulated. Betting markets are manipulated. Following money requires Kremlinology to interpret.

The best thing we have is probably early vote analysis, which has a decent track record over the last few years.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:23 PM (42WUB)

32
Leupold,

I feel the same way.

Posted by: four seasons at October 02, 2026 02:23 PM (/QHx4)

33 Schumer: "Republicans are going to steal the election"

Schumer: "The Save America Act is racist"

Posted by: Lemmiwinks at October 02, 2026 02:24 PM (9FfUF)

34 Reading either "side" of the Cornell gangbang or rape thing is exhausting.

Exhausting.

I'll be honest, I loved the internet when it started, it was fun to shoot the shit, see opinions on things, read a little of what people thought. But between the Marxist Stage Weeping OMG The Patriarchy Rapes Again Just Like Der Trumpenfuhrer, and the Ho Bag Fuckslut Cumdumpster Loves The Sex and So Do I But Of Course Never With a Ho Bag Fuckslut Cumdumpster Like Her Because I'm Somehow Above That, I'm really just over it.

Communicating with people was fun while it lasted. Roll on AGW, fry us all.

Posted by: ... at October 02, 2026 02:24 PM (mJVit)

35
Paxon has his problems and Collins is a clownish figure but the people they are up against? Nutjob freaks.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor

Maybe America wants nutjob freaks?

Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at October 02, 2026 02:25 PM (Cqx++)

36 I just worry about conservatives who, every November, say, "I'm never trusting the polls again," and then come the next summer go, "I'm really worried because of the polls."
Posted by: TheJamesMadison

Show me a person that still watches or consumes main stream media including Fox, etc. and I will show you someone worrying about polling. I can understand that most people lack the desire to actually look inside the tedious details of polling an the drastic workarounds that pollsters now use to combat poll non response, people lying to pollsters, and figuring out their mostly secret sauce of weighting one person to represent scores of other voters.

Cell phone area codes no longer correspond with location, young people are mobile and may not even be registered (and in most states, that closes in about a couple of days (30 days prior), we have a large population of illegals, the tendency of people now to avoid taking phone calls via call blocking and caller id due to scams, and so the polling firms are going to invitations via texting (another thing a lot of people avoid responding to now as a new twist on scamming) for people to respond either by phone or online for polls.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:25 PM (E4rtv)

37
I needed a pick me up today. I just have this really sinking feeling about the midterms that it's going to be a 1994 version for Democrats.
Posted by: Leupold

==============

Buck up, kid. Trump, Bessent, Miller, Rubio, Hegseth, et. al. will still have executive powers, and 2028 may have cleaner voter rolls, a rosier economy, and a trail of remarks from actual Democrat legislators on transing kids, taking away gas stoves, levying a nationwide billionaire tax, and reopening the border.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:25 PM (mmrXZ)

38 6 Any TX Morons have insight on how our boy Herrera is doing down in TX 23?
Posted by: RedMindBlueState

Last I looked, his fat blob of an opponent put out a comment on X where Herrera was holding up a copy of Mein Kampf.
Except that the book was actually the Communist Manifesto.
Fat blob quietly deleted xer post, but not before Herrera screencapped the evidence of stupidity.
TheAKGuy/status/2105517142259159267

Posted by: 88C+u at October 02, 2026 02:25 PM (88C+u)

39 WA passed SB5974, which sets additional requirements on law enforcement leaders, volunteers, cadets, and specially commissioned officers.

Four Sheriffs joined a lawsuit to stop implementation of this law. In argument today, Sheriff Swank reports "hate group" affiliation is a major point of contention. If the Sheriff (or other leader) is a member of a "hate group," they can be removed.

Example of a hate group: You belong to a church which teaches there are only two genders.

http://tiny.cc/gygb101

Posted by: bonhomme at October 02, 2026 02:25 PM (mkw2N)

40 Dear Chuck, I'm a constituent unfortunately. Another thing that could cause you to lose is that everyone not a Dem realizes you've made a deal with Marxist, anti-Semitic lunatics who hate the USA.
Hope that helps

Posted by: Smell the Glove at October 02, 2026 02:26 PM (jivel)

41 "They have insane amounts of money!"

Welp. Those are all from donations.

Why don't YOU have money from donations, Chuck? What happened to your money? Where'd it go?

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:26 PM (gLYp7)

42 Talking about losing the Senate is doomsaying. I think we hold the Senate for sure, and may even pick up a few seats.

The House is the tougher question, but I think we hold it and could even increase our lead.

I've been saying this for a long time, and the closer we get the more confident I am.

We got this. Now, to be sure, the GOP can fuck up a gay-curious frat party MMF, so anything is possible. But I think we got this.

Posted by: Elric The Blade at October 02, 2026 02:26 PM (iFTx/)

43 Holding up polls themselves for a sort of meta-scrutiny seems like a good idea. We might find a better way of prognostication, like analyzing trends in social media. AI could help hugely with that.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:22 PM (mmrXZ)

They are intentionally noisy though. And because of widespread sanctioned cheating we don't even have reliable results, so nothing to really compare polling against.

Noisy polling plus noisy results equals darkness and confusion..

Posted by: ... at October 02, 2026 02:27 PM (mJVit)

44 I still think that most polls are fabricated to give legitimacy to an eventual cheat. The curtain slipped when J Ann Selzer, the "Queen of Polling" overplayed it (probably due to emotions)...and insisted Harris was up 3% on Trump as it came down to election day. Trump won by 13%.

Now, I'll give you one where it actually worked. J. Ann Selzer predicted Barrack Obama to beat Hillary Clinton in the primary. And, there was A LOT of cheating in that primary (especially in the caucus based states). Sure enough, Obama pulled the surprise win.

Posted by: Orson at October 02, 2026 02:28 PM (dIske)

45 Time to bring in the Big Guns for the Commi-crats.

Awaken the beast and call upon Chocolate Jesus to come and save the day....

HOPE AND CHANGE ..............

Posted by: Jackson K. at October 02, 2026 02:28 PM (5U1m0)

46 I just worry about conservatives who, every November, say, "I'm never trusting the polls again," and then come the next summer go, "I'm really worried because of the polls."
Posted by: TheJamesMadison

First, they lost trust in the pollsters. Then Internet Movie Critics. Finally. WNBA game officials.

Posted by: Duncanthrax at October 02, 2026 02:29 PM (3kXhz)

47 Last I looked, his fat blob of an opponent put out a comment on X where Herrera was holding up a copy of Mein Kampf.
Except that the book was actually the Communist Manifesto.
Fat blob quietly deleted xer post, but not before Herrera screencapped the evidence of stupidity.
TheAKGuy/status/2105517142259159267
Posted by: 88C+u at October 02, 2026 02:25 PM

Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through a campaign.

Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 02, 2026 02:30 PM (GfgtS)

48 43 They are intentionally noisy though. And because of widespread sanctioned cheating we don't even have reliable results, so nothing to really compare polling against.

Noisy polling plus noisy results equals darkness and confusion..

Posted by: ... at October 02, 2026 02:27 PM (mJVit)

========

In just a few days this week, we got the Ipsos D+15 poll, the Morning Consult D+3 poll, and the Harvard-Harris D+2 poll.

The latter two are dismissed because they're GOP pollsters (the first is a Dem pollster, the second is non-partisan and the best pollster of the past decade), and we have to treat Ipsos seriously (even though they have a long history of doing it wrong with terrible results).

We can treat polling seriously, but no one does.

You pick the best, treat them with some skepticism, and actively attack the rest.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:30 PM (42WUB)

49 Who gives a Rats Ass about the Polls................

That is just Commie Propaganda anyway ....

Just go out and vote !!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Jackson K. at October 02, 2026 02:30 PM (5U1m0)

50 Back in the grad school days, I did work for the Census Bureau and later the Ag Statistics crop surveys as a field evaluator (interviewer). The gold standard is dropping random physical areas on a map and requiring the field evaluator to go and talk to every inhabitant within that block. Usually for Farm Surveys, it was about 640 acres or so. A bit less in a city. If someone refused to respond, then you had to go to local government sources like the Farm Services Admin, personal observation of the crops planted, livestock, and farm size, property tax records, and so on. That filled in the missing data in most cases.

At the same time, there was and is a master list of all farmers (inhabitants in a Census) that we know gets constantly out of date. The area surveys were used to determine exactly how the list survey was incomplete, identify new people to update the list from the area surveys, and to establish error rates. For farming data, the other means of error correction including marketing information, crop and livestock subsidies, satellite information, etc.

Today's polling does none of that. Private polling for candidates do.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:31 PM (E4rtv)

51 44 I still think that most polls are fabricated to give legitimacy to an eventual cheat. The curtain slipped when J Ann Selzer, the "Queen of Polling" overplayed it (probably due to emotions)...and insisted Harris was up 3% on Trump as it came down to election day. Trump won by 13%.

Now, I'll give you one where it actually worked. J. Ann Selzer predicted Barrack Obama to beat Hillary Clinton in the primary. And, there was A LOT of cheating in that primary (especially in the caucus based states). Sure enough, Obama pulled the surprise win.

Posted by: Orson at October 02, 2026 02:28 PM (dIske)

=======

Did you know that Marsha Blackburn was consistently losing polls for the TN senate race in September of 2018?

She won by 11.

Lot of good that narrative creation did.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:31 PM (42WUB)

52 Last I looked, his fat blob of an opponent put out a comment on X where Herrera was holding up a copy of Mein Kampf.
Except that the book was actually the Communist Manifesto.

My favorite was when she made an ad talking over the sound of construction machinery claiming that it was work on building The Wall in Big Bend National Park (something neither candidate supports BTW). Then Brandon made an ad from the exact same spot pointing out that it was literally a hundred miles away from Big Bend. Lying liars lie even when it's easier not to.

Posted by: Oddbob at October 02, 2026 02:31 PM (vTZFs)

53 Rove and that bunch see an opportunity to soften our cruel policies and pick up disillusioned Democrats. I get wanting to win, but you have to be able to answer the question "what did we win?"

Posted by: spongeworthy at October 02, 2026 02:32 PM (sLLbN)

54 Polls are for strip clubs and fire stations.

Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 02, 2026 02:32 PM (bIH8o)

55 It's not about who polls the men, but who mans the poles.

Posted by: James Baalarico at October 02, 2026 02:32 PM (mJVit)

56 Polls are taxes.
I declare every Democrat the winner.

Posted by: John Roberts at October 02, 2026 02:33 PM (W3Srb)

57 Nobody wants to see Katy Stout at a strip club.

Posted by: what happened to the buffet?? at October 02, 2026 02:33 PM (88C+u)

58 A Republican may win Oregon's governor's race.

She's down 1 to the radical dem and her catchphrase has become: "I'm not running to manage Oregon's decline. I'm here to end it.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:33 PM (gLYp7)

59 That is why Plouffe and company admitted they never saw Kamala with a lead in their private polling.

That is because that polling is designed on purpose to check its own errors lest you lose an election on public polling misfires like Hillary in 2016. Race was close enough that the private polls did not show the pending disaster in the Blue Midwest Firewall until too late which was about election day or mebbe a day or so before when suddenly plans for a big coronation got scaled back just in case.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:33 PM (E4rtv)

60 Did you know that Marsha Blackburn was consistently losing polls for the TN senate race in September of 2018?

She won by 11.

Lot of good that narrative creation did.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:31 PM (42WUB)

It all started going hew way after Taylor Swift endorsed Phil Bredesen.

Posted by: Mark1971 at October 02, 2026 02:34 PM (/OKHJ)

61
We might find a better way of prognostication, like analyzing trends in social media. AI could help hugely with that.
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:22 PM (mmrXZ)

Personally, I'm old school. My preferred method of prognostication is reading the entrails of my commie victims.

Posted by: in before the troll at October 02, 2026 02:34 PM (y9nCu)

62 58 A Republican may win Oregon's governor's race.

She's down 1 to the radical dem and her catchphrase has become: "I'm not running to manage Oregon's decline. I'm here to end it.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:33 PM (gLYp7)

=======

This is totally what we expect from a blue wave.

Democrats struggling in deep blue states.

Further evidence of Republicans losing everywhere!

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:34 PM (42WUB)

63
Off me, troll sock.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 02, 2026 02:34 PM (y9nCu)

64 Four Sheriffs joined a lawsuit to stop implementation of this law. In argument today, Sheriff Swank reports "hate group" affiliation is a major point of contention. If the Sheriff (or other leader) is a member of a "hate group," they can be removed.

Example of a hate group: You belong to a church which teaches there are only two genders.

http://tiny.cc/gygb101
Posted by: bonhomme at October 02, 2026 02:25 PM (mkw2N)

Sounds like a violation of the Religious Test Clause, as well as the Free Exercise Clause. But extremism in the service of trannyism is no vice for these degenerates.

Posted by: WA is cooked at October 02, 2026 02:35 PM (TbWk/)

65 60 Did you know that Marsha Blackburn was consistently losing polls for the TN senate race in September of 2018?

She won by 11.

Lot of good that narrative creation did.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:31 PM (42WUB)

It all started going hew way after Taylor Swift endorsed Phil Bredesen.

Posted by: Mark1971 at October 02, 2026 02:34 PM (/OKHJ)

========

Alternate theory:

The electorate is largely inelastic, barely moves over time, and things are 95% set by about March of election year.

And deep red states just vote for Republicans in federal office while deep blue states just vote for Democrats for office outside of extreme circumstances that can depress "hometeam" turnout.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:35 PM (42WUB)

66
Gawd, I love Schumer's fear of election theft. Chuck Chuck CHUCK! There's a remedy for this.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:36 PM (mmrXZ)

67 Democrats struggling in deep blue states.

Further evidence of Republicans losing everywhere!

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:34 PM (42WUB)

BLUNAMI!

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:36 PM (gLYp7)

68 “Our class pet should be a pollster; they need friends too.”

Posted by: Ralph Wiggum at October 02, 2026 02:36 PM (VyD10)

69 Its so odd watching what the Democrats are vomiting on the voting public, the human detritus they scrape off the sidewalks of San Francisco. This is their best? Or is it just shoving it in your face and sneering when they get "elected" anyway because of highjinks at the ballot box?

Who thought Talarico was their best hope for winning in Texas?? Who saw this weirdo short eyes was the key to a win in Texas of all places? They can't find some Foghorn Leghorn democrat??

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:36 PM (nIKjK)

70 67
BLUNAMI!

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:36 PM (gLYp7)

======

Love it. Perfect.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:36 PM (42WUB)

71 Gawd, I love Schumer's fear of election theft. Chuck Chuck CHUCK! There's a remedy for this.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:36 PM (mmrXZ)

Yeah, but if we implement Voter ID, Dems will lose EVEN MORE elections!
- Chuck

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:37 PM (gLYp7)

72 Seeing on X that a judge has ruled that preventing non-citizens from voting is unconstitutional. LOL, what?

Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 02:37 PM (2ocoG)

73
Nobody wants to see Katy Stout at a strip club.
Posted by: what happened to the buffet?? at October 02, 2026 02:33 PM (88C+u)

Rule 34.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 02, 2026 02:37 PM (y9nCu)

74 A Republican may win Oregon's governor's race.

No chance in hell. Never, ever going to happen. Oregon is a machine state, no Republican governor will ever win, no Republican majority in either house of the legislature. It will never happen as long as the vote by mail thing is in place.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:38 PM (nIKjK)

75 Seeing on X that a judge has ruled that preventing non-citizens from voting is unconstitutional. LOL, what?

Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 02:37 PM (2ocoG)

FACT CHECK: TRUE

A federal judge on Oct. 1 threw out a case against a Jamaican woman who voted in a U.S. federal election, finding that the law that prohibits noncitizens from voting in federal elections is unconstitutional.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:38 PM (gLYp7)

76 There is no wave.

Posted by: Greg at October 02, 2026 02:38 PM (mJVit)

77 Nobody wants to see Katy Stout at a strip club.

JB Pritzker is sending her $20 million. Given she's already been caught diverting campaign funds to buy cookies and tacos (I am not making this up), that oughta go well.

Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 02:39 PM (2ocoG)

78 ... the trendy gender delusions of their Munchausen mommies.

-------------

I was calling it Munchausen-by-~~Proxy~~Butchery here a decade ago.

Posted by: ShainS at October 02, 2026 02:39 PM (94QNV)

79
This is totally what we expect from a blue wave.

I agree that this does not have the feel of a wave for anybody. There's just not the social feel, no comfort for either party. But we all need to brace for the Democrats to win the house, even if they don't.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:39 PM (nIKjK)

80 Oregon is a machine state, no Republican governor will ever win, no Republican majority in either house of the legislature. It will never happen as long as the vote by mail thing is in place.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:38 PM (nIKjK)

I think you're right.

I also think a Republican polling at ±1 in Oregon signifies that there isn't the Blue Wave the left is anticipating.

A Republican within 1 in Oregon is winning by four in Michigan.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:39 PM (gLYp7)

81 Paxton 65%
Talarico 35%

Posted by: Ben Had at October 02, 2026 02:40 PM (10NPz)

82 43 Holding up polls themselves for a sort of meta-scrutiny seems like a good idea. We might find a better way of prognostication, like analyzing trends in social media. AI could help hugely with that.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia

Nope. Internet is dead thesis. Approximately 50-70 percent, depending on which social media service you use is bots, foreigner and domestic post for pay mills, and to a lesser extent fake sock puppets.

The expensive way is as I put above, area surveys randomly picked to correct polling errors. That is enormously expensive and the media just does not have that kind of money anymore so it posts these fake and gay polls with special sauce in order to attract attention and shill for Democrats.

This is a base turnout election--independents are somewhat upset but for them, both parties are evil and often that leads to less turnout because the lesser of evils is still evil, so D base versus R base--Trump has about 40-42 percent of the electorate that will turn out for him definitely but must turn out in midterms by expensive GOTV operations. Dems have a bit higher built in vote share, mebbe 44-45 percent on average but younger and less engaged.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:40 PM (E4rtv)

83 Posted by: James Baalarico at October 02, 2026 02:32 PM (mJVit)

That's a genius nickname, btw.

Posted by: pookysgirl wonders if Moloch can be incorporated somehow at October 02, 2026 02:41 PM (Wt5PA)

84 79
This is totally what we expect from a blue wave.

I agree that this does not have the feel of a wave for anybody. There's just not the social feel, no comfort for either party. But we all need to brace for the Democrats to win the house, even if they don't.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:39 PM (nIKjK)

=

I've been predicting that Democrats would take the house for 18 months.

Turnout differentials will just get them over the hump.

But, it won't do anything. Congress is already not doing anything, so no change there. Impeachment theater? Okay. Pointless since it won't lead to conviction.

DHS, DOJ, DoW, State all continuing because we have in imperial presidency and the OBBB fully funded and appropriated DHS through 2028 allowing deportations to continue at full scale no matter what the next Congress does?

Holy shit, this election is historically unimportant in changing the direction of the nation.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:41 PM (42WUB)

85 I'm really just over it.

Communicating with people was fun while it lasted. Roll on AGW, fry us all.

Posted by: ... at October 02, 2026 02:24 PM (mJVit)

Web 1.0 was where it's at.

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 02, 2026 02:42 PM (dK+Kv)

86 Talarico reminds me an a muskier version of Jim Bakker.

Posted by: Alteria Pilgram - My president has convictions at October 02, 2026 02:42 PM (VyD10)

87 the trendy gender delusions of their Munchausen mommies.

-------------

I was calling it Munchausen-by-ProxyButchery here a decade ago.
Posted by: ShainS at October 02, 2026 02:39 PM (94QNV)

My mother treated me like dogshit but at least she didn't have my dick and balls cut off. My god the bar has sunk rather low hasnt it.

Posted by: The emasculation was all psychological at October 02, 2026 02:42 PM (TbWk/)

88 72 Seeing on X that a judge has ruled that preventing non-citizens from voting is unconstitutional. LOL, what?
Posted by: Ian S.
======
I think that guy is probably going to be reversed but perhaps not in time for the election. Betcha Eisen and Elias fed that judge with an opinion.

Minnesota behavior of its judges show an active 'Resist' collaborative movement on judges and I rate this very likely that Dem and some never Trump GOP relics on the bench are engaged in this shit behind the scenes.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:42 PM (E4rtv)

89
Time to bring in the Big Guns for the Commi-crats.

Awaken the beast and call upon Chocolate Jesus to come and save the day....

HOPE AND CHANGE ..............
Posted by: Jackson K.

=============

Ha-ha, has the Lord and Savior Obama deigned to campaign yet? I know he made some silly remarks about all-female governance, but is he on the trail trying to get blacks to the polls? I love it when he screams at black people in his southern baptist preacher voice and it all comes to naught.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:43 PM (mmrXZ)

90 the trendy gender delusions of their Munchausen mommies.

-------------

I was calling it Munchausen-by-ProxyButchery here a decade ago.
Posted by: ShainS at October 02, 2026 02:39 PM (94QNV)

My mother treated me like dogshit but at least she didn't have my dick and balls cut off. My god the bar has sunk rather low hasnt it.

Posted by: The emasculation was all psychological at October 02, 2026 02:42 PM (TbWk/)

Be thankful you weren't Clancied.

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 02, 2026 02:43 PM (dK+Kv)

91 Chuck also said the party is one, without fracture.

Remember that, too.

Posted by: L - No nic...I'm coming closer to my home. at October 02, 2026 02:44 PM (Wl7PO)

92 I think that guy is probably going to be reversed but perhaps not in time for the election. Betcha Eisen and Elias fed that judge with an opinion.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:42 PM (E4rtv)

David Liebowitz says illegals can not be barred from voting in US elections, right before a tightly-contested election.

Weird.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:44 PM (gLYp7)

93 I've been predicting that Democrats would take the house for 18 months.

===

You have ??

Posted by: runner at October 02, 2026 02:44 PM (AKptf)

94 FACT CHECK: TRUE

A federal judge on Oct. 1 threw out a case against a Jamaican woman who voted in a U.S. federal election, finding that the law that prohibits noncitizens from voting in federal elections is unconstitutional.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:38 PM (gLYp7)

------------------

Half of the country -- and apparently now the Judicial Branch -- believes that the US Constitution itself is Unconstitutional.

Posted by: ShainS at October 02, 2026 02:44 PM (94QNV)

95
That is because that polling is designed on purpose to check its own errors lest you lose an election on public polling misfires like Hillary in 2016. Race was close enough that the private polls did not show the pending disaster in the Blue Midwest Firewall until too late which was about election day or mebbe a day or so before when suddenly plans for a big coronation got scaled back just in case.
Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:33 PM (E4rtv)

I don't actually believe that polls had anything to do with Frau Gruppencankles losing the election. She outright ignored virtually every poll, because there's no way that a stronk woman like her could possibly lose against that Queens vulgarian. Plus, all those Donk campaign strategists who had a penis were of course, wrong about everything, so their advice could safely be ignored.

I Am Woman, Hear Me Roar

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 02, 2026 02:44 PM (y9nCu)

96 The Atlantic
@TheAtlantic
·
Sep 20
Karl Rove condemns comments about immigration by Bo French, the Republican candidate for Texas railroad commissioner, saying, “I'm voting for my second Democrat this fall"

Posted by: 13times at October 02, 2026 02:45 PM (6iKlf)

97 So, Is shcumer's green tie a signal that he is all in on the red/green alliance?

Posted by: bob (moron inbobnitus) at October 02, 2026 02:45 PM (G+1P3)

98 he outright ignored virtually every poll, because there's no way that a stronk woman like her could possibly lose against that Queens vulgarian.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 02, 2026 02:44 PM (y9nCu)

I don't think she even went to Michigan or Wisconsin a single time during the campaign. Just assumed they were in the bag.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:45 PM (gLYp7)

99 Kalshi has Ds taking the House at 91%.

Posted by: runner at October 02, 2026 02:45 PM (AKptf)

100 I've been predicting that Democrats would take the house for 18 months.

Turnout differentials will just get them over the hump.

But, it won't do anything. Congress is already not doing anything, so no change there. Impeachment theater? Okay. Pointless since it won't lead to conviction.

DHS, DOJ, DoW, State all continuing because we have in imperial presidency and the OBBB fully funded and appropriated DHS through 2028 allowing deportations to continue at full scale no matter what the next Congress does?

Holy shit, this election is historically unimportant in changing the direction of the nation.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison
======
I dunno. Depends in the granular level of House races where polling is abysmal--bad for Senate, horrible for districts. Again, it going to be a turnout issue and perhaps a redistricting issue. Even the pro Dem pickers like Silver and Cook are now hedging away from their maximalist 20 plus gain in seats. Now in low teens from the last I saw.

I think it is more like 50/50 and the Dem primaries did not do Dems much favors this year in candidate selection versus the GOP.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (E4rtv)

101 I gotta ask again, why is it if two drunk kids get it on, the guy is a scumbag for taking advantage of the girl but she's never to blame for taking advantage of the guy? How does that work, exactly?

I mean in a functioning patriarchy where men are assumed to be responsible and in control it makes sense, but we don't live in that kind of culture or legal system.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (nIKjK)

102 Be thankful you weren't Clancied.

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 02, 2026 02:43 PM (dK+Kv)

-------------

And a new verb meme is born.

/Let's hope it's not also strangled in the crib ...

Posted by: ShainS at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (94QNV)

103 Fuck Karl Rove and the hyena he rode in on.

Posted by: Ben Had at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (10NPz)

104 Be thankful you weren't Clancied.
Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 02, 2026 02:43 PM (dK+Kv)

There were some days I believed to my core death was preferable. Being 10-11 and wanting either yourself or your tormentor dead is no way to go through childhood.

Posted by: I at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (TbWk/)

105 99 Polymarket has Democrats at 63% for taking control of the Senate.

Polymarket has Democrats at 91% for taking control of the house.

ace says if you bitch about gas prices for the average American citizen, you are a communist.

The Horde says if you can't afford $1800 a month for a one bedroom apartment, get a third job, sell your blood to the blood bank, and pull yourselves up by the bootstraps.

Posted by: Reality at October 02, 2026 02:45 PM (DQiGk)

========

Hong was 95% to win the Democrat primary in Wisconsin for governor because betting markets have secret knowledge and know the future.

Meanwhile, Democrat turnout is down in early voting:

https://x.com/TonerousHyus/status/
2106057544800350646

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (42WUB)

106 We are going to end up with 53 or 54 seats, including Michelle Tafoya.

This has me in tears. I really was hoping to lose this one!

Posted by: John Thune at October 02, 2026 02:47 PM (4hx56)

107

Re the Cornell thing.

It was an orgy. Orgies have happened since the beginning of time. People are appalled?

Some people like orgies. I don't give a shit as long as children are not involved.

It is election season, white people are bad. Only white people have orgies.

Posted by: four seasons at October 02, 2026 02:47 PM (/QHx4)

108 The funniest part (ha ha) ((sarc)) about mail-in ballots is how many of them show up without the crease in the middle. And amazingly, they all go to democrats.

Posted by: Diogenes at October 02, 2026 02:47 PM (2WIwB)

109 If these combined polls include those stupid betting sites, they are worse than garbage. The betting sites are where the retard billionaires like Reid Hoffman throw money to try and create a narrative.

Posted by: Thomas Paine at October 02, 2026 02:47 PM (0U5gm)

110 I don't actually believe that polls had anything to do with Frau Gruppencankles losing the election. She outright ignored virtually every poll, because there's no way that a stronk woman like her could possibly lose against that Queens vulgarian

"How am I not up by 50 points?!?!?!" Narcissists cannot imagine a scenario in which they are wrong or unwanted.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:48 PM (nIKjK)

111 100 I dunno. Depends in the granular level of House races where polling is abysmal--bad for Senate, horrible for districts. Again, it going to be a turnout issue and perhaps a redistricting issue. Even the pro Dem pickers like Silver and Cook are now hedging away from their maximalist 20 plus gain in seats. Now in low teens from the last I saw.

I think it is more like 50/50 and the Dem primaries did not do Dems much favors this year in candidate selection versus the GOP.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (E4rtv)

========

If Democrats get the House it'll be like a 5-10 seat majority built from toss ups that happen to go their way.

And Jeffries will be trying impeachment theater with votes of 5-10 Democrats who won Trump+5 districts and dealing with shutdown theater with Trump fully willing to RIF the shit out of the federal government in response.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:48 PM (42WUB)

112 Web 1.0 was where it's at.

Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at October 02, 2026 02:42 PM (dK+Kv)

We may be dating ourselves.

But what else is new.

Posted by: ... at October 02, 2026 02:48 PM (mJVit)

113 ***Rove and his ilk claim that taking sides against us is mandated by their principles.
--

The communists (Xi) and the Islamists are spending money like James Carville on a trailer park binder.

Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at October 02, 2026 02:48 PM (iLKq8)

114 Dammit I spazzed

Posted by: I would have been ok with the exercise band at October 02, 2026 02:48 PM (TbWk/)

115
Nope. Internet is dead thesis. Approximately 50-70 percent, depending on which social media service you use is bots, foreigner and domestic post for pay mills, and to a lesser extent fake sock puppets.

Posted by: whig

================

I bring up social media survey because of that lone South African firm that called 2016 for Trump, down to Philadelphia. They did it by analyzing social media, which was not expensive because they crowdsourced it.

Bots might have gotten worse since then, but AI has gotten better and it might be able to detect bot noise.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:49 PM (mmrXZ)

116 103 Fuck Karl Rove and the hyena he rode in on.
Posted by: Ben Had at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (10NPz)

There is an ash heap of history somewhere that Rove needs to fade into.

Posted by: Diogenes at October 02, 2026 02:49 PM (2WIwB)

117 How can it be unconstitutional to not allow a non-citizen to vote in federal elections???

Posted by: Lady in Black at October 02, 2026 02:49 PM (qBdHI)

118 We may be dating ourselves.

But what else is new.
Posted by: ... at October 02, 2026 02:48 PM (mJVit)

I have to date myself, nobody else will.

Posted by: Carboniferous epoch at October 02, 2026 02:50 PM (TbWk/)

119 If Rove hadn't opened his mouth pretty much no one would have known about the comment from Bo French. Way to go turd blossom

Posted by: Smell the Glove at October 02, 2026 02:50 PM (jivel)

120 Schumer and Biden go the same hair-plug guy.

Posted by: Chuck Martel at October 02, 2026 02:50 PM (Dv3i1)

121 "Sure, Trump has brought inflation down to its lowest levels since before COVID, but he hasn't created deflation which I now blame Trump for the high prices."

This is the excuse of Democrats who ignored inflation during Biden, by the way.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:50 PM (42WUB)

122 Hong was 95% to win the Democrat primary in Wisconsin for governor because betting markets have secret knowledge and know the future.

Meanwhile, Democrat turnout is down in early voting:

https://x.com/TonerousHyus/status/
2106057544800350646

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (42WUB)

Don't copy and paste me.

If I say anything contrary to ace, I'm a troll.

Posted by: Reality at October 02, 2026 02:50 PM (m5bh6)

123 How can it be unconstitutional to not allow a non-citizen to vote in federal elections???
Posted by: Lady in Black at October 02, 2026 02:49 PM (qBdHI)

Is that a triple negative???
*reeeeeeeee!!!!!*

Posted by: Diogenes at October 02, 2026 02:50 PM (2WIwB)

124 75 Seeing on X that a judge has ruled that preventing non-citizens from voting is unconstitutional. LOL, what?

Posted by: Ian S.

^^^^^^^^^
David S. Leibowitz is a United States District Judge for the Southern District of Florida, serving in the Miami Division. He assumed office on March 1, 2024, after being nominated by President Joe Biden and confirmed by the Senate on February 27, 2024, by a 64–33 vote.

Posted by: bob (moron inbobnitus) at October 02, 2026 02:51 PM (G+1P3)

125 Web 1.0 was where it's at.

And with Minx 0.8 beta you never need to leave 1998.

Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 02:52 PM (2ocoG)

126 99 Kalshi has Ds taking the House at 91%.
Posted by: runner
=======
If polling is trash then prediction markets based on polling are even more trash as they are derivative of polling information and a thinly traded market where even foreigners can 'buy' influence by bets. Plus it is not unlikely that you have people in polling operations betting on it by screwing with their own polls.

Using standard techniques, the best information is actually votes--a slight derivative is EV and Mail In Ballot request data that are proxies for the real thing but imperfect as it doesn't measure indy leaners very well nor does it preclude party defectors. The second best is a well run poll but those are expensive and they must disclose weighting, and uncertainties along with crosstabs. The third is usually media polling done on the cheap, the fourth is then prediction markets made by yutzes trying to make a buck or buy influence for Team Blue or Red.

And when you aggregate the summary of individual races, your error rates explode as it is the compounded joint errors of all the races. Aggregation is only as good as its least precise measure.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:52 PM (E4rtv)

127 Posted by: Reality at October 02, 2026 02:50 PM (m5bh6)

========

Sounds like you hate it here and should stop commenting.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:52 PM (42WUB)

128 no one will read what i write

Posted by: Thinks he's Jewlius Caesar at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (TbWk/)

129
Schlichter raises the question but I'd really like the answer: What are the Rovians' principles? Yeah, I get they're "a joke, a ploy" etc., but what are they really? Something like "The policies that most people appear to prefer are the correct ones"?
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 02:19 PM (mmrXZ)

-----

Corporate tax cuts, anything big business and MIC

Posted by: MAGA_Ken at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (dinlg)

130 How can it be unconstitutional to not allow a non-citizen to vote in federal elections???

I had no idea non-citizens were subject to the Constitution. If that's true, UK citizens need to sue the government for first amendment violations.

Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (2ocoG)

131 Is that a triple negative???
*reeeeeeeee!!!!!*

--

LOL, I know. I think I twitched when I typed that. Involuntary grammatical error reaction.

Posted by: Lady in Black at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (qBdHI)

132 I stand by my theory that Rove is PigMan from Seinfeld.

I thought he was maybe dead. I guess not.

Posted by: ChristyBlinkyTheGreat at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (hzuYO)

133 Possible scenario: House and Senate pass an amnesty bill; gets through the Senate 51-40 (with many R abstentions). It's not veto-proof. But it's a message they have votes for impeachment.

Posted by: 88C+u at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (88C+u)

134 Schlichter raises the question but I'd really like the answer: What are the Rovians' principles?

that they are better than you

Posted by: Black Orchid (j+aD2) at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (j+aD2)

135
I doubt Reality's dick is long enough to fuck himself.

Posted by: four seasons at October 02, 2026 02:54 PM (/QHx4)

136 House and Senate pass an amnesty bill; gets through the Senate 51-40 (with many R abstentions). It's not veto-proof. But it's a message they have votes for impeachment.

Posted by: 88C+u at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (88C+u)

How does it signal they have the votes for impeachment?

You need 67 Senators to remove a president.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:54 PM (gLYp7)

137 Schlichter raises the question but I'd really like the answer: What are the Rovians' principles?

THE ARISTOCRATS!

I mean, that they're the aristocrats. You should dig up parsnips for the palace.

Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 02:54 PM (2ocoG)

138 He said: �Two things could have us to lose. One, they steal the election. The second thing is money. They have obscene amounts of money.

The odd thing about this is that both the very rich and the upper middle class have both been trending left for a while

In 2024 the Dem's had a significant lead in fundraising. If the Republicans have overtaken that it either means they are way, way, way ahead with middle class/working class voters, or they've taken the lead again among the upper middle class/rich. Either way that makes me doubt a blue wave.

2024:
Democratic National Committee (DNC): collected approximately $683.6 million
Republican National Committee (RNC): collected approximately $475.8 million

Posted by: 18-1 at October 02, 2026 02:55 PM (sKqQm)

139 133 Possible scenario: House and Senate pass an amnesty bill; gets through the Senate 51-40 (with many R abstentions). It's not veto-proof. But it's a message they have votes for impeachment.

Posted by: 88C+u at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (88C+u)

========

It takes 67 votes in the Senate for conviction.

Post 1/6, when Trump was at his lowest, had lost re-election, and Mitch was making public noises about the GOP moving on from Trump, the Senate only got 57 votes for conviction on his second impeachment. (8 of the 10 GOP senators who voted for it are no longer in the Senate as of next year, Cassidy being the latest to leave.)

The impeachment vote in the House is unimportant. The only thing that matters is conviction.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:55 PM (42WUB)

140
I don't think she even went to Michigan or Wisconsin a single time during the campaign. Just assumed they were in the bag.
Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:45 PM (gLYp7)

As I recall, the rumor was that Bill had practically begged her to campaign there in the last week or two, but she shut him down.

I'm still surprised that she didn't October Surprise him with a fatal heart attack to lock in the sympathy vote. It's not as if she didn't already have a body count...

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 02, 2026 02:55 PM (y9nCu)

141 Ho Lee Fuk, Ian S. is not making this up. From @newsforce August 25 -

Katy Padilla Stout's campaign spent $4,338 on tacos, cookies and liquor over roughly 1 month, according to campaign finance records

At least it was cheap liquor. I guess? I'm thinking kahlua.

Posted by: 88C+u at October 02, 2026 02:55 PM (88C+u)

142 The Democrats are confusing me again on whether they think "stealing an election" is possible.

It's Schrodinger's stolen election.

Posted by: Axeman at October 02, 2026 02:56 PM (Fi81e)

143 Remember Rove ran on this platform:

Reduce government spending
Cut taxes
Reduce regulations

He and Shrub did a tiny amount of 2/3 and nothing about 1 even when they had both houses in congress.

Posted by: 18-1 at October 02, 2026 02:56 PM (sKqQm)

144 Politicians of all stripes never want to "retire."

Lording over the unwashed masses is an ego trip of epic proportions.

Posted by: Martini Farmer at October 02, 2026 02:56 PM (RORbl)

145 the antisemites have arrived.

clean up in aisle 128

Posted by: Huck Follywood at October 02, 2026 02:56 PM (0cxsI)

146 What are the Rovians' principles?

The Spice must flow.

I thought we all knew that already.

Posted by: The Fremen at October 02, 2026 02:56 PM (Dv3i1)

147 False.
I have reported this site for spreading disinformation.
Everyone knows that this year will be not just a blue wave but a blue tsunami.
Democrats will take the House, the Senate and Trump will resign is embarrassment.
Vance will be impeached and Hakeem Jeffries will be President.
Suck it, MAGA, your time is done!

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at October 02, 2026 02:57 PM (3cUTc)

148 I'm still surprised that she didn't October Surprise him with a fatal heart attack to lock in the sympathy vote. It's not as if she didn't already have a body count...

Too much risk if they failed because imagine Bill Clinton spilling everything he knows...

Posted by: 18-1 at October 02, 2026 02:57 PM (sKqQm)

149 >>>>What are the Rovians' principles?

Import more Mexicans.

Posted by: Mark1971 at October 02, 2026 02:57 PM (/OKHJ)

150 There is no chance the president gets removed from office. Impeached again at least once? A total certainty if the Democrats take the House. They'll try to impeach half the western hemisphere. The Senate is not likely to vote to remove anyone but the point isn't do succeed, its to paralyze the legislature and the presidency.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:57 PM (nIKjK)

151 Rove and his ilk claim that taking sides against us is mandated by their principles. What principles?"

If you don't like them, they have others.

And do not forget - what's left of the Bush political machine hates Trump and Paxton at levels that most people wouldn't belive..

Posted by: man at October 02, 2026 02:57 PM (pfXMo)

152 143 Remember Rove ran on this platform:

Reduce government spending
Cut taxes
Reduce regulations

He and Shrub did a tiny amount of 2/3 and nothing about 1 even when they had both houses in congress.

Posted by: 18-1 at October 02, 2026 02:56 PM (sKqQm)

====

Trump has done all three, especially the third.

Hell, government spending has been down, on average, for the last three quarters as a percentage of GDP.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 02:58 PM (42WUB)

153 I don't think she even went to Michigan or Wisconsin a single time during the campaign. Just assumed they were in the bag.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider: Gotterdammerung at October 02, 2026 02:45 PM (gLYp7)
---
Nope. HC was in GR, here in Michigan as a late stop, at least.

I think the idea that she missed the rust-belt states is overdone.

Posted by: Axeman at October 02, 2026 02:58 PM (Fi81e)

154 Good afternoon Ace and everyone
The weekend is here

Posted by: Skip at October 02, 2026 02:58 PM (Ia/+0)

155 Ho Lee Fuk, Ian S. is not making this up. From @newsforce August 25 -

Katy Padilla Stout's campaign spent $4,338 on tacos, cookies and liquor over roughly 1 month, according to campaign finance records

There's leaning in to the obvious jokes about yourself and then there's whatever this is.

Brandon Herrera has made pretty much every one of his campaign X posts a double entendre about her being fat, which everyone except feminists enjoy.

At least it was cheap liquor. I guess? I'm thinking kahlua.

She probably thinks it's classier than Thunderbird. She might even be right.

Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 02:59 PM (2ocoG)

156 Rove's principles involve spit shining W's nutsack

Posted by: Smell the Glove at October 02, 2026 02:59 PM (jivel)

157 I bring up social media survey because of that lone South African firm that called 2016 for Trump, down to Philadelphia. They did it by analyzing social media, which was not expensive because they crowdsourced it.

Bots might have gotten worse since then, but AI has gotten better and it might be able to detect bot noise.
Posted by: Blonde Morticia

It has gotten much worse and in fact, a lot of the AI models are trained on bullshit robo posts on things like Reddit. For that reason, at least one major AI company has publicly announced reducing reddit weighting in its model. Social media killed blogs, and in turn have been wrecked by terminally online (whose preferences do not resemble the general pop), bots, and paid comment influencing operations including Mobys.

I dislike pulling the credentials card but necessary in this case. I have a PhD in this field, retired as a tenured prof doing empirical research in this field for about a decade or so with publications, etc., and about two decades in practical experience in local, state, and federal elections.

It is about 50/50 in the House and most likely GOP holds the Senate. If no wave, then the GOP mebbe gains a seat or two.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 02:59 PM (E4rtv)

158 The Senate is not likely to vote to remove anyone but the point isn't do succeed, its to paralyze the legislature and the presidency.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:57 PM (nIKjK)
---
If they get 66 on anybody, the fix is in.

Posted by: Axeman at October 02, 2026 02:59 PM (Fi81e)

159 I'm still surprised that she didn't October Surprise him with a fatal heart attack to lock in the sympathy vote.

I am as well, but I can only guess that having been married to and living with Cruella Von Borgia for decades has trained Bill to be very careful.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:59 PM (nIKjK)

160 spent $4,338 on tacos, cookies and liquor"

Sounds like a small UT tailgate party

Posted by: man at October 02, 2026 02:59 PM (pfXMo)

161
I don't actually believe that polls had anything to do with Frau Gruppencankles losing the election.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur

================

I think she ignored the polls because she thought the steal was secure. To this day, I'm a bit shocked that it wasn't.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 03:00 PM (mmrXZ)

162 Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:46 PM (nIKjK)

In a MMF 3way the dynamic is a bit more skewed. Or FMF, maybe, where one of the Fs is evil, the M is horny and stupid, and the second F was the sucker at the poker game (inb4 phrasing).
That didn't happen at Cornell.
Of course it's hard to know what happened at Cornell because Ketamine Girl keeps changing her story.

Posted by: 88C+u at October 02, 2026 03:00 PM (88C+u)

163 no one will read what i write

Posted by: Lighten up Francis at October 02, 2026 03:00 PM (0iQE1)

164 141. Katy Padilla Stout's campaign spent $4,338 on tacos, cookies and liquor over roughly 1 month, according to campaign finance records
--------------------------------------
What? Nothing on male strippers and coke? C'mon, Katy! Do better! Make Hunter proud.

Come to think of it, sounds like someone may've had the munchies.

Posted by: Martin Tell at October 02, 2026 03:01 PM (sFNX2)

165 If I was to use information publicly available toi get a sense of the race. I would watch where the candidates go, where the funds are being spent by national party organizations, and proxies for turnout if not results on EV and mail in ballot information.

Not go consuming the poisoned wells of social media, polling, and worst of all prediction markets.

Better to be uninformed than misinformed.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 03:01 PM (E4rtv)

166 Betting markets are another venue for ad men to dump money for influence.

Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at October 02, 2026 03:01 PM (iLKq8)

167 spent $4,338 on tacos, cookies and liquor"

Sounds like a small UT tailgate party

Sounds more like money laundering.

Posted by: Reality at October 02, 2026 03:02 PM (m5bh6)

168 One interesting thing about the chart TJM posted (mail in ballot requests in Cuyahoga County, by town) is that many of the largest drops are in towns with significant Jewish vote. Beachwood, for example, and Shaker Heights. Cleveland Heights and University Heights too.

I wonder if the insane antisemitism that is now the official position of the Democrat Party is finally starting to sink in to Jewish voters...

Posted by: Huck Follywood at October 02, 2026 03:02 PM (Yj10g)

169
I doubt Reality's dick is long enough to fuck himself.

Posted by: four seasons at October 02, 2026 02:54 PM (/QHx4)

Although as far as I'm concerned, he's welcome to try.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 02, 2026 03:02 PM (y9nCu)

170 165 If I was to use information publicly available toi get a sense of the race. I would watch where the candidates go, where the funds are being spent by national party organizations, and proxies for turnout if not results on EV and mail in ballot information.

Not go consuming the poisoned wells of social media, polling, and worst of all prediction markets.

Better to be uninformed than misinformed.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 03:01 PM (E4rtv)

=

When one party is flush with cash and throwing it around everywhere, including having to secure last minute ad spaces in expensive markets like Texas, it feels...misleading.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 03:02 PM (42WUB)

171
I dislike pulling the credentials card but necessary in this case. I have a PhD in this field, retired as a tenured prof doing empirical research in this field for about a decade or so with publications, etc., and about two decades in practical experience in local, state, and federal elections.

Posted by: whig

================

LOL, no problem. I remember the press making shit up when Princess Diana died, about how she was particularly beloved by marginal this and "of color" that, and professional pollsters had all the data at their fingertips that showed her following was vastly white middle-aged middle-class women.

Posted by: Blonde Morticia at October 02, 2026 03:03 PM (mmrXZ)

172 Of course it's hard to know what happened at Cornell because Ketamine Girl keeps changing her story.
Posted by: 88C+u

It will come out in excruciating detail in future court testimony and evidence. And the going public means a shitshow and politicians, particular Dems, trying to agitate their AWFL base which already hates and blames men for their misery. But the Dems like miserable and broken people because they seek revenge at the polls.

Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 03:03 PM (E4rtv)

173 Better to be uninformed than misinformed."

That's what I told Norvell!

/zombie TJefferson

Posted by: man at October 02, 2026 03:03 PM (pfXMo)

174 no one will read what i write

Posted by: Lighten up Francis at October 02, 2026 03:00 PM (0iQE1)
---
Your prophesy has failed.

Posted by: Axeman at October 02, 2026 03:03 PM (Fi81e)

175 Hillary is responsible for everything good and bad that has occurred in US politics since 2008.
The bad: she lost to Barky/Biden which led to all the crap they caused

The good: she lost to Trump

Posted by: Smell the Glove at October 02, 2026 03:03 PM (jivel)

176 133 Possible scenario: House and Senate pass an amnesty bill; gets through the Senate 51-40 (with many R abstentions). It's not veto-proof. But it's a message they have votes for impeachment.
Posted by: 88C+u at October 02, 2026 02:53 PM (88C+u)

You need 67 to convict in the Senate...

Posted by: Nova Local at October 02, 2026 03:03 PM (tOcjL)

177 I have to date myself, nobody else will.
Posted by: Carboniferous epoch

Have you tried asking Taylor Lorenz out? You two are about the same age.

Posted by: Bulg at October 02, 2026 03:04 PM (77rzZ)

178 Sounds more like money laundering.

Look at any picture of Katy Stout. It's not laundering, she ate every one of those cookies.

Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 03:04 PM (2ocoG)

179 I doubt Reality's dick is long enough to fuck himself.
Posted by: four seasons at October 02, 2026 02:54 PM

He's not from Nantucket, then.

Posted by: The Man From Nantucket at October 02, 2026 03:04 PM (0sNs1)

180 Betting markets are another venue for ad men to dump money for influence."

Huh.

/Pro sports leagues

Posted by: man at October 02, 2026 03:04 PM (pfXMo)

181 Wonder how much W. Lee O. (Pappy) Daniels spent on biscuits and the Pilsbury Dough Boys?

Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at October 02, 2026 03:04 PM (iLKq8)

182 This is totally what we expect from a blue wave.

I agree that this does not have the feel of a wave for anybody. There's just not the social feel, no comfort for either party. But we all need to brace for the Democrats to win the house, even if they don't.

Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 02, 2026 02:39 PM (nIKjK)

This is an unsettled election because mostly people don't like the price of gas and it's still expensive for things like beef. And the Democrats have exploited this well, however-

The Democrats have piled on the insanity so heavily and so high that even Democrats themselves don't particularly care to vote for them, even though they don't like Trump.

So, it's an election of discontent.

No one is enthused about voting (except maybe me!) because even if they don't totally like Trump's current economy, they sure as hell don't want the communist aborto-genital mutilation-energy hating-inflation causing-islamo-importingvote cheating Democrats to win,

so the Republicans will win maybe hugely. I expect some surprises.

But, it's voting done out of duty and fear rather than enthusiasm and joy...except for me! 😀

Posted by: naturalfake at October 02, 2026 03:04 PM (YSUhf)

183 Brandon Herrera has made pretty much every one of his campaign X posts a double entendre about her being fat, which everyone except feminists enjoy.

At least it was cheap liquor. I guess? I'm thinking kahlua.

She probably thinks it's classier than Thunderbird. She might even be right.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 02, 2026 02:59 PM

I loved the recent video where he dropped yet another reference to the weight of Austin feminists, then looked at the camera and said "in case you thought I was sorry about that."

Posted by: RedMindBlueState at October 02, 2026 03:05 PM (/C5Rl)

184 It will come out in excruciating detail in future court testimony and evidence. And the going public means a shitshow and politicians, particular Dems, trying to agitate their AWFL base which already hates and blames men for their misery. But the Dems like miserable and broken people because they seek revenge at the polls.
Posted by: whig at October 02, 2026 03:03 PM (E4rtv)
=================
It'll be the Clancy trial part 2, and Nancy Grace will be doing breathless updates.

Posted by: Huck Follywood at October 02, 2026 03:05 PM (Yj10g)

185 Trump's first impeachment hurt him so much politically that Democrats latched onto covid panic for nearly a year, cheated by mail in ballotting for months, and shut down ballot counting in six states in the middle of the night to ballot box stuff like Tammany Hall barely defeat him in the electoral college.

"Oh no, impeachment. Anyway."

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at October 02, 2026 03:05 PM (42WUB)

186 Katy Padilla Stout's campaign spent $4,338 on tacos, cookies and liquor over roughly 1 month, according to campaign finance records
__________

$150 a day on a campaign heading into the home stretch? That's miserly by Democrap standards. I would think it would be a lot higher.

I suspect the real eye-openers in that statement are the almost certain big payouts to companies owned by family members.

It's all money laundering. The entire government is money laudering.

Posted by: Elric The Blade at October 02, 2026 03:05 PM (iFTx/)

187 Betting markets are another venue for ad men to dump money for influence."

Huh.

/Pro sports leagues

Posted by: man at October 02, 2026 03:04 PM (pfXMo)
---
It says "dump money", not "fix outcomes".

Posted by: Axeman at October 02, 2026 03:06 PM (Fi81e)

188 Although as far as I'm concerned, he's welcome to try.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 02, 2026 03:02 PM (y9nCu)

Yes, because addressing the affordability of energy and housing for working Americans is an affront to conservatism.

Posted by: Reality at October 02, 2026 03:06 PM (m5bh6)

189 trying to agitate their AWFL base which already hates and blames men for their misery"

Gotta stir up every available base, especially now that the Hispanic vote is gone...

Posted by: man at October 02, 2026 03:06 PM (pfXMo)

190 no one will read what i write
Posted by: Lighten up Francis at October 02, 2026 03:00 PM

You're right, but it's not you, it's us. Could we get a TL;DR summary?

Posted by: Gen Zers at October 02, 2026 03:07 PM (0sNs1)

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