THE MORNING RANT: The Ticking Commercial Real Estate Bomb – Lenders are Seeking to Secure a Smaller Loss Now Before It All Blows Up

There is an old adage that “your first loss is your best loss.” That comes to mind this week with news that several major lenders involved in commercial real estate (frequently referred to as “CRE” are eager to sell off – at a significant loss - CRE loans that are currently performing as agreed. Why would they sell off loans that are performing well, and why would they take a loss to unload good loans?

There is a very good reason. Specifically, there is an approaching debt refinance crisis on CRE that is looming large and drawing closer every day.

Here’s some quick background:

• CRE properties are office buildings, shopping centers, hotels, apartments, etc. that produce income from rent paid by tenants.
• The owners typically finance these properties for terms of 5 to 10 years (but on a 20 or 25-year payout) with a balloon payment that is due at loan maturity.
• The amount borrowed for the loan must obviously be less than the value of the property.
• Rent income must be able to support the debt.

Here’s the problem:

Maturing loans likely have rates around 4% or less right now, but to renew the loan for another 5 or 10 years the new rate is going to be closer to 8%. On a $20 million dollar loan, an 8% loan on a 20-year payout has annual payments totaling about $2 million, versus approximately $1.5 million on a 4% loan.

Uh oh. To cover the extra half-million of interest paid each year means that rents must be increased to cover the debt service, or else no bank is going to provide the refinancing. But just the opposite is playing out between landlords and tenants, especially regarding office space. Office vacancy is critically high following the double punch of Covid-era work-from-home combined with the anarchic destruction of major city cores.

It gets worse, with high vacancy in dying cities, the value of office buildings is in free fall, if a buyer can be found at all.

And it’s not just office space, any CRE property that is in a dying blue city run by a Pol Pot mayor is becoming unsustainable, including hotels and retail shopping centers, as well as office buildings. These are just a few of the headlines in recent weeks:

“Downtown Baltimore Office Building Takes Dramatic Price Hit; After trading for $66M in 2015, property barely fetched third of that in recent sale” [The Real Deal – 7/23/2023]

“Owner Defaults on Loan for Two Downtown San Francisco Hotels” [San Francisco Examiner – 6/06/2023]

Park Hotels & Resorts — which owns the 1,921-room Hilton San Francisco Union Square and the 1,024-room Parc 55 San Francisco — announced Tuesday that the company will default on its $725 million nonrecourse, commercial mortgage-backed security loan, which is scheduled to mature in November.

There is a wave of CRE loans about to mature, but they cannot be refinanced for multiple reasons, including:

• The value of the property has plummeted below the balloon amount.
• The market – and existing leases - will not allow for rents to be increased to cover the increased cost of higher interest rates.

So what do the owners of CRE properties do? They would love to sell the properties, of course, but the market has collapsed, so the property can only be sold for a price far less than the balloon amount on the loan.

If the property owners can’t refinance the property, nor can they can’t sell it, they are left with one ugly option…surrender the property to the lender as a foreclosure.

So, banks and other CRE lenders are now looking at a pipeline of defaulting loans heading toward them. And what does a bank do with a foreclosed property? It sells it off at a distressed price. And the more foreclosed properties that are hitting the market, the less they are worth. Which means that the bank keeps taking bigger and bigger losses as their foreclosed properties hit the market.

That is where we are right now. Banks are full of these loans that are going to be un-refinanceable, but the clock can’t be stopped and no one can stop the calendar pages from turning. The situation is about to get really bad, with no good solution.

Which explains this story from the past week:

“Property Loans Are So Unappealing That Banks Want to Dump Them” [Bloomberg – 8/07/202]

Lenders including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been trying to sell debt backed by offices, hotels and even apartments in recent months, but many are finding that tidying up loan books is no easy feat when concerns about commercial real estate have surged.
Banks seeking to sell commercial-property loans are encountering a dried-up market with few options for an easy exit.
“Even if most of these are performing loans today, they’re trying to reduce their exposure by selling loans at a discount as they head into a refinance cycle,” Hagood said. “A lot of these banks will say, ‘I’d rather take the hit there than take the hit on a foreclosure and have to deal with the asset after.’”
Goldman and JPMorgan, along with other banks including Capital One Financial Corp. and M&T Bank Corp., have sought to sell property debt in recent months, seeking buyers both for one-off sales and transactions for portfolios of loans, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified citing private information.

A known, manageable loss now makes perfect sense if it gets a CRE loan off the books. But who would want to buy a ticking time bomb at any price?

Some CRE loans are already hitting maturity and blowing up, including one that finances 30 Marriott Courtyard hotels.

”Cerberus, Highgate Miss Payments on $415 Million Hotel Mortgage” [Bloomberg – 7/24/2023]

Cerberus Capital Management and Highgate missed two months of payments on a $415 million loan for 30 Courtyard by Marriott hotels, another sign of spreading trouble in commercial real estate.
Cerberus and Highgate have requested an extension of the floating-rate loan, which matured in July, according to a servicer report.
“Borrower stated that they do not have enough funds to cover the shortage and the regular monthly debt service,” according to the report.

I’m trying not to write as many stories as I had been predicting “Doom!” However, when you see a freight train barreling down the tracks at a tanker truck stuck on a railroad crossing, it’s not a wild prediction to assert that there is about to be a big explosion. The CRE debt maturity crisis is that freight train. I fear just how bad the explosion will be.

[buck.throckmorton at protonmail dot com]

Posted by: Buck Throckmorton at 11:00 AM

Comments

(Jump to bottom of comments)

1 Sponge!

Posted by: rickb223 at August 15, 2023 11:00 AM (iH7eX)

2 1st?

Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at August 15, 2023 11:01 AM (xTRSc)

3 I hath nooded

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:01 AM (CIS44)

4 I called 'em.

Posted by: Grumpy and Recalcitrant at August 15, 2023 11:01 AM (qPw5n)

5 Dang, everyone's on nood duty this morning.

Posted by: Grumpy and Recalcitrant at August 15, 2023 11:01 AM (qPw5n)

6 Dammit.

Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at August 15, 2023 11:02 AM (xTRSc)

7 An analyst at Fitch Ratings warned that U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), could be downgraded if the agency further cuts its assessment of the operating environment for the industry, according to a report from CNBC on Tuesday.

In June, Fitch lowered the score of the U.S. banking industry's "operating environment" to AA- from AA, citing pressure on the country's credit rating, gaps in regulatory framework and uncertainty about the future trajectory of interest rate hikes.

Another one-notch downgrade, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, analyst Chris Wolfe told CNBC.

Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:02 AM (RHGPo)

8 Aaaaand who is waiting in the wings to scoop up all this property?

*takes off tin foil hat*

Posted by: Charlie Gibson at August 15, 2023 11:02 AM (avru5)

9 Maturing loans likely have rates around 4% or less right now, but to renew the loan for another 5 or 10 years the new rate is going to be closer to 8%. On a $20 million dollar loan, an 8% loan on a 20-year payout has annual payments totaling about $2 million, versus approximately $1.5 million on a 4% loan.
++++
This is why structural debt is going to eat a lot of enterprises.

A lot of outfits got fat on secularly-declining interest rates. Hell, you don't even need a penny of profit to make money on declining rates. But when that stops and it becomes a secularly-rising market, you get your face ripped off.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:02 AM (WkNQM)

10 Math.

Posted by: davidt at August 15, 2023 11:02 AM (SYTee)

11 Oh well.

Posted by: BignJames at August 15, 2023 11:03 AM (AwYPR)

12 I’m trying not to write as many stories as I had been predicting “Doom!” However, when you see a freight train barreling down the tracks at a tanker truck stuck on a railroad crossing, it’s not a wild prediction to assert that there is about to be a big explosion.

Please don't stop. I'd rather know that it be a big surprise.

Posted by: rickb223 at August 15, 2023 11:03 AM (iH7eX)

13 "Maturing loans likely have rates around 4% or less right now, but to renew the loan for another 5 or 10 years the new rate is going to be closer to 8%. On a $20 million dollar loan, an 8% loan on a 20-year payout has annual payments totaling about $2 million, versus approximately $1.5 million on a 4% loan."

Debt is scary.

Posted by: Minimal gp-Based Barrier at August 15, 2023 11:03 AM (MvF+J)

14 Odds Clark will be appointed to the special prosecutors team? 100%?

Hunter Biden's top criminal defense attorney has asked a federal judge for permission to withdraw from the case after a plea deal unraveled in late July.
Christopher Clark, Hunter's longtime defense attorney, filed a motion with the Delaware judge overseeing Hunter's case on the grounds that he could now be called as a witness in future proceedings, CNN reports.

Posted by: Cat Ass Trophy at August 15, 2023 11:03 AM (slgIg)

15 Homeless/illegal migrant housing...bill the govt.

Posted by: BignJames at August 15, 2023 11:04 AM (AwYPR)

16 Jeepers, this is awful.

Posted by: Puddinhead at August 15, 2023 11:04 AM (DmtxH)

17 John Dean: Trump indictments over 2020 election ‘much bigger than Watergate’

.. Dean "jumps the shark"

Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:04 AM (RHGPo)

18 NOT FUNNY

Posted by: BEN ROETHLISBERGER at August 15, 2023 11:04 AM (avru5)

19 It turns out that Greta Garbo had pronouns.

"I want to be a loan."

Posted by: Biden's Dog sniffs a whole lotta malarkey, at August 15, 2023 11:05 AM (adINt)

20 And it’s not just office space, any CRE property that is in a dying blue city run by a Pol Pot mayor is becoming unsustainable, including hotels and retail shopping centers, as well as office buildings.
++++
Yup. It is all tied together. No office workers, no restaurants. No business trips or venues, no hotels. Value collapses.

And the second of the one-two punch is the real problem. Lots of businesses are starting to mandate a return to the office. That is going to accelerate, but that doesn't mean they'll be returning to the *same* offices if those offices are in downtown shit holes.

Look at places like Seattle and Portland. Decent office space in the suburbs is more expensive than office space in Class A buildings in the central business district. Why? Because no one wants to be in the gross and dangerous CBD.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:05 AM (WkNQM)

21 Another banking/financial crisis on the horizon?

Posted by: 2008 at August 15, 2023 11:05 AM (SYTee)

22 Jingle Mail, Jingle Mail, here's your fucking keys, Merry Xmas!

Privitize the gain, socialize the loss.

Posted by: Jersey Jagoff at August 15, 2023 11:05 AM (Or1K6)

23 Willowing myself and way apropos…

Home builder sentiment fell to 50 this month. Not surprising given 7% mortgages **. It’s gonna be a massive shit show all around. If you own real estate the best time to sell was yesterday. The second best time is today.

** Yes I know once upon a time in the 80s there were 15% mortgages 😃

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:06 AM (qftaL)

24
Perfect storm. Stolen elections never end well.

Posted by: Divide by Zero at August 15, 2023 11:06 AM (enJYY)

25 I foresee a lot of financial combustion in the near future.

Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at August 15, 2023 11:06 AM (nvvwD)

26 John Dean: Trump indictments over 2020 election ‘much bigger than Watergate’

That's true in the sense that Watergate was actually about an FBI guy crying that he wasn't promoted when Hoover was out, while these indictments are about trying to warn people away from investigating the DNC fraud machine.

Posted by: Ian S. at August 15, 2023 11:06 AM (2ocoG)

27 Maybe if we talk moar about diversity this will go away?

Posted by: Puddinhead at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM (KY22T)

28 If the property owners can’t refinance the property, nor can they can’t sell it, they are left with one ugly option…surrender the property to the lender as a foreclosure.
++++
If they can. Many are going to bankrupt instead. The losses *will* be borne and probably by the banks, but a lot of CRE enterprises are going to go out of business in the process and so are a bunch of regional banks.

As the regional banks heavily exposed to CRE fail, they will be consolidated and shoved into the Big Five with sweetheart deals. Local credit and business banking are going to get very hard as a result.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM (WkNQM)

29 And the second of the one-two punch is the real problem. Lots of businesses are starting to mandate a return to the office. That is going to accelerate, but that doesn't mean they'll be returning to the *same* offices if those offices are in downtown shit holes.

Look at places like Seattle and Portland. Decent office space in the suburbs is more expensive than office space in Class A buildings in the central business district. Why? Because no one wants to be in the gross and dangerous CBD.
Posted by: Joe Mannix

And dont discount when some of these massive expo centers start going through the same shit as conferences no longer book in these cities.

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM (CIS44)

30 So, the CRE "crisis" will add to the destruction of urban centers. Cities. That are mostly blue shitholes.

That's too bad.

So, anyway.....

Posted by: Martini Farmer at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM (Q4IgG)

31 I'm sure the government will be along shortly to rain bailouts down on everyone...

The very idea that some things need to collapse and fail on their own is anathema to our lords and masters...

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM (YIVH2)

32 Went into an art store in the local mall last weekend. Everything was on sale. The sales lady said that the store would be closing in ten days because the rent’s too high.

There were a number of vacant spaces in what used to be a fully-occupied mall.

Malls are dying.

Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM (xTRSc)

33 >>Yup. It is all tied together. No office workers, no restaurants. No business trips or venues, no hotels. Value collapses.

Gosh, how inexpensive would it be to build a shiny, new 15 minute city after you've gotten local crime-enabling + Biden wealth-destroying policies to clear out major cities like San Francisco?

Posted by: Lizzy/i] at August 15, 2023 11:08 AM (avru5)

34 The question they should be asking themselves is, can I annex myself to Ukraine and start laundering money for the Regime?

Posted by: t-bird at August 15, 2023 11:08 AM (CaJIi)

35 As the regional banks heavily exposed to CRE fail, they will be consolidated and shoved into the Big Five with sweetheart deals. Local credit and business banking are going to get very hard as a result.

The part where that will further subject bank customers to DIE/ESG is just a perfect side effect for the people causing all of this.

Posted by: Ian S. at August 15, 2023 11:08 AM (2ocoG)

36 The situation is about to get really bad, with no good solution.
++++
There is a workable solution, though. It's an old one, and one that the United States was central in developing: bankruptcy.

Too bad bankruptcy is out of fashion. Expect bailouts. Big, unaffordable, massively destructive and monstrously corrupt bailouts.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:08 AM (WkNQM)

37 My wife has wanted to buy a waterfront vacation property for awhile, but I view it as an investment, and haven't seen that it's a good time to buy for a good RofR.

It will be interesting to see how a CRE crash will affect the residential market. I assume not well.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:08 AM (eOEVl)

38 Gosh, how inexpensive would it be to build a shiny, new 15 minute city after you've gotten local crime-enabling + Biden wealth-destroying policies to clear out major cities like San Francisco?
Posted by: Lizzy/i]

*Maui has entered the chat*

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:09 AM (CIS44)

39 I wish this would happen to residential properties

Instead houses are hitting record high prices

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at August 15, 2023 11:09 AM (VTu1l)

40 I’m trying not to write as many stories as I had been predicting “Doom!” However, when you see a freight train barreling down the tracks at a tanker truck stuck on a railroad crossing, it’s not a wild prediction to assert that there is about to be a big explosion. The CRE debt maturity crisis is that freight train. I fear just how bad the explosion will be.
++++
Not as bad as China real estate, at least. That has a decent chance of taking down the entire country. More on that later today.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:09 AM (WkNQM)

41 It gets worse, with high vacancy in dying cities, the value of office buildings is in free fall, if a buyer can be found at all.

I'm surprised that Top Men haven't suggested using vacant commercial property to house the multitudes of glorious dreamers flooding our country... at taxpayer expense, of course.

No doubt they'll have this thought as soon as the correct people own the properties.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:09 AM (1Z8zZ)

42 China is also suffering major real estate problems. Given the combination of the two approaching problems this could be the trigger for the collapse a lot of people have been expecting. Fitch is looking to lower bank stocks due to the credit loans. Hope it doesn't but this could get ugly fast

Posted by: Smell the Glove at August 15, 2023 11:09 AM (R62ZP)

43 “…the gross and dangerous CBD.” - Joe Mannix

Joe, we’re supposed to keep that knowledge among the COBs. Oh wait, you meant “Central Business District.” Never mind.

Posted by: Buck Throckmorton at August 15, 2023 11:09 AM (WeouF)

44 COVID played a large part of the CRE crisis. Brick and mortar retail stores are closing because everyone migrated over to internet sales. Brick and mortar is too expensive in the current business model.

Secondly, telework has made office work obsolete in many fields. I met someone yesterday who lives in Texas and reports to her job in Hawaii. Lots of that going on. In New York City, no one wants to schlep into the city when they can work from home on Long Island free from the LIRR and crime in the city.

Posted by: Adirondack Patriot at August 15, 2023 11:09 AM (lf83v)

45 The latest commercial building to sell in SF went for a 66% discount.

Posted by: Thomas Paine at August 15, 2023 11:10 AM (lTGtQ)

46 Woke imbeciles gotta imbecile. Keep voting democrat imbeciles!

Posted by: Xipe Totec at August 15, 2023 11:10 AM (pohLc)

47 Imagine if we lived in a world where people and corporations actually owned things rather than mortgaging them.

Posted by: Methos at August 15, 2023 11:10 AM (Dnobf)

48 Not to worry.

The "Rich men north of Richmond" will bail them out if it serves their purpose.

Posted by: mpfs at August 15, 2023 11:10 AM (3Bv5R)

49 Gosh, how inexpensive would it be to build a shiny, new 15 minute city after you've gotten local crime-enabling + Biden wealth-destroying policies to clear out major cities like San Francisco?

Everything is intertwined. The CRE crash will drive both conslidation of banking into one ESG-driven colossus *and* facilitate rebuilding cities without racist highways and with 15-minute zones.

Posted by: Ian S. at August 15, 2023 11:10 AM (2ocoG)

50 A Ritz-Carlton is supposed to be opening in Portland, Portland's first five-star hotel. It cost $600 million to build.

For some reason they keep putting off the opening date.

There are million-dollar plus condos on top of the hotel, and the hotel's backers assure us that they are selling like hotcakes.

Portland's county was nice enough to locate a couple of major facilities catering to junkies and the homeless a block away from the hotel, so guests will be able to enjoy the interesting street life the moment they step out of the hotel.

Downtown Portland's foot traffic is just over a third of what it was pre-pandemic - but I'm sure that the Ritz-Carlton will turn that right around!

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:10 AM (2tUFv)

51 In the very near future cities will look like a Walking Dead set. Sad thing is both Chinaflu and Antifa/BLM were deliberate. Bottom line, destroying the cities will drive a lot of rats out in the country. Hungry rats.

Posted by: Eromero at August 15, 2023 11:11 AM (NxC5+)

52 37 My wife has wanted to buy a waterfront vacation property for awhile, but I view it as an investment, and haven't seen that it's a good time to buy for a good RofR

—-

Problem is real estate pricing takes a long time. Many years from top to bottom. For things like that, sometimes you just have to say fuck it. Is it worth waiting 5 years to buy cheap vs enjoying 5 summers at the beach and over paying? It’s not a purely math problem.

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:11 AM (qftaL)

53 So how shittier can blue shitholes get? Is this like Limbo?

Posted by: Puddinhead at August 15, 2023 11:11 AM (DmtxH)

54 "The gross and dangerous CBD"

He's obviously a good cook, so there's that.

Posted by: Cheerful Reprobate at August 15, 2023 11:11 AM (wCkB+)

55 The question they should be asking themselves is, can I annex myself to Ukraine and start laundering money for the Regime?

Obsess much?

Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:11 AM (eOEVl)

56 Malls are dying.
Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM

Because they are now over taken by our urbans finest. Why would someone want to go someplace they have a chance of getting assaulted, worse or deal with these scumbags. We've all seen the video of the smash and grabbers etc. Walking out with impunity. Because they CAN. The defund dem dipshits helped create this mess.

Posted by: Minnfidel at August 15, 2023 11:11 AM (wQvIv)

57 This problem with CRE isn't just a US problem.
It spans the globe with China as one of the others with potential huge losses. The Chinese government is currently shuffling the debts around trying disparately to kick the can till it is out of sight.

Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:11 AM (RHGPo)

58 11 Oh well.

Posted by: BignJames at August 15, 2023 11:03 AM (AwYPR)

My family's motto.

Posted by: javems at August 15, 2023 11:11 AM (AmoqO)

59 Next tiny, cramped, economical housing fad for hipsters will be converted office space. Those cubicles make great efficiency apartments, close to the nightlife and are totally sustainable.

Posted by: Ripley at August 15, 2023 11:11 AM (KrJTL)

60 Because no one wants to be in the gross and dangerous CBD.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:05 AM (WkNQM)

What the f*ck? I'm not that bad!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:12 AM (A3700)

61 If you own real estate the best time to sell was yesterday. The second best time is today.

** Yes I know once upon a time in the 80s there were 15% mortgages 😃
Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:06 AM (qftaL)

Well, if the property is encumbered by debt, yes. If you own it free and clear, you have more flexibility.

Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at August 15, 2023 11:12 AM (nvvwD)

62 Imagine if we lived in a world where people and corporations actually owned things rather than mortgaging them.

The whole US economy for more than a decade has been built around the concept of cheap money.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:12 AM (2tUFv)

63 51 In the very near future cities will look like a Walking Dead set. Sad thing is both Chinaflu and Antifa/BLM were deliberate. Bottom line, destroying the cities will drive a lot of rats out in the country. Hungry rats.
-------------
Put bowls of anti-freeze out for them.

Posted by: Puddinhead at August 15, 2023 11:12 AM (DmtxH)

64 Aaaaand who is waiting in the wings to scoop up all this property?
__________

Ssshhhh!

Posted by: Billionaires Eying Distressed Wildfire Properties at August 15, 2023 11:12 AM (lf83v)

65 I'm surprised that Top Men haven't suggested using vacant commercial property to house the multitudes of glorious dreamers flooding our country... at taxpayer expense, of course.

Based on what's happening in Europe, the revolting existing voters will be packed into the newly rebuilt 15-minute cities while every illegal gets 40 acres and a mule.

Posted by: Ian S. at August 15, 2023 11:12 AM (2ocoG)

66 Lots of businesses are starting to mandate a return to the office. That is going to accelerate, but that doesn't mean they'll be returning to the *same* offices

-

They are mandating returns because they don't want to write off the loss on the properties.

Posted by: Thomas Paine at August 15, 2023 11:13 AM (lTGtQ)

67 Malls are dying.
Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM

my local mall closed the enclosed section and now only has stores on the exterior of the mall .. sorta converting to a large strip mall.

Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:13 AM (RHGPo)

68 Perfect storm. Stolen elections never end well.

**dons tinfoil hat**

Which is why I would bet that the Dems / Deep State / MFM will move heaven and earth to keep Trump off the ballot so that a witless stooge like Pence, Christie or some other stumblebum will be the 2024 nominee and take office and the full brunt of the blame when it all collapses.

Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 15, 2023 11:13 AM (AW0uW)

69 China is also suffering major real estate problems.

That's like comparing a broken leg to Stage 4 cancer. China is in some serious s***. As Mannix says in #40, it could threaten the stability of the regime.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:13 AM (eOEVl)

70 And dont discount when some of these massive expo centers start going through the same shit as conferences no longer book in these cities.
Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM (CIS44)
++++
San Fracisco is fucked in this regard. They just poured vast sums of money into redoing the Moscone Center and now that it's done, nobody wants to go there because San Francisco is such an awful place.

I know at least one company that holds a convention at Moscone that abandoned it. Their customers basically said, "This is a cool conference. If you move it to Las Vegas or Orlando, I'll be there with bells on but I'm not coming back to San Francisco" in the post-event surveys.

They moved the conference.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:14 AM (WkNQM)

71 Here's what's going to happen:

Various state and local governments, with the backing of the Feds, will bail out the commercial property owners in city cores with one stipulation...

Commercial spaces will be converted to what will essentially be tenements, and used to shelter street-dwellers and the influx of illegal immigrants.

Count on it.

Posted by: ballistic at August 15, 2023 11:14 AM (oXNqT)

72 Lots of businesses are starting to mandate a return to the office. That is going to accelerate, but that doesn't mean they'll be returning to the *same* offices

-

non-profits must maintain some actual use to retain their tax write-offs on the properties.

Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:14 AM (RHGPo)

73 47 In financial accounting class they taught us all the advantages and disadvantages of using debt vs equity to raise funds. It made sense at the time, but I forgot em all. I just have a deep deep dread of debt.

Posted by: Minimal gp-Based Barrier at August 15, 2023 11:14 AM (MvF+J)

74 The rot has been around for awhile, but hidden beneath the surface. The covid scam response caused the surface veneer to crumble and accelerated the corrosion already underway.

2020 (because of the covid response nonsense) was an inflection point. 2019 normalcy will never fully return, alas. And it affected everything: economics, medicine, migration patterns, and politics (stolen elections and Trump indictments). This all flows from the rotten covid root

Posted by: LinusVanPelt at August 15, 2023 11:14 AM (nNI2N)

75 The two malls in my area are doing surprisingly well. I was there this weekend and it was pretty busy. Of course the area is rather un-diverse and hence no roving bands of “youth” stealing everything in sight.

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:14 AM (qftaL)

76 I fear just how bad the explosion will be.

I project that the government will throw money at the problem. That will solve everything.

Maybe we can get some union people to march in a "Fight For $45" campaign so they can make a living wage.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (1Z8zZ)

77 Malls are dying.

High-end malls in Portland's suburbs are doing fine.

Middle-tier malls in Portland's suburbs are struggling.

Malls in Portland itself are dying.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (2tUFv)

78 Went into an art store in the local mall last weekend. Everything was on sale. The sales lady said that the store would be closing in ten days because the rent’s too high.

WHAT THE HELL HAVE I BEEN TELLING YOU PEOPLE?

Posted by: Jimmy McMillan at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (AW0uW)

79 Lots of businesses are starting to mandate a return to the office. That is going to accelerate, but that doesn't mean they'll be returning to the *same* offices

************

china spyware Zoom making everyone go back to office gave me the lulz

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (VTu1l)

80 I'm surprised that Top Men haven't suggested using vacant commercial property to house the multitudes of glorious dreamers flooding our country... at taxpayer expense, of course.

No doubt they'll have this thought as soon as the correct people own the properties.
Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:09 AM (1Z8zZ)
++++
Oh, the lefty activists propose this all the time. Too bad it can't work.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (WkNQM)

81 They are mandating returns because they don't want to write off the loss on the properties.
--------------
The problem is with devalued income the cost of transportation is gonna get in the way.

Posted by: Puddinhead at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (uia9V)

82 Acronyms that mean different things in different contexts can get terribly confusing :-(

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (WkNQM)

83 >>Ssshhhh!
Posted by: Billionaires Eying Distressed Wildfire Properties

*Touches side of nose, nods*

Posted by: Blackrock, China at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (avru5)

84 "I’m trying not to write as many stories as I had been predicting “Doom!” However, when you see a freight train barreling down the tracks at a tanker truck stuck on a railroad crossing, it’s not a wild prediction to assert that there is about to be a big explosion. The CRE debt maturity crisis is that freight train. I fear just how bad the explosion will be."

Very interesting, Buck. I've been looking at short opportunities in the market for a while now, and the CRE sector is one that's ripe for more declines. Mind you, a lot of the publicly traded REITs have had steady declines already, but there could be more ruin in them.

Posted by: Darrell Harris at August 15, 2023 11:16 AM (/iWhV)

85 Too big to fail. Should probably make a bunch of middle class people bear this loss. For their own good, of course.

Posted by: Your Betters, Looting the Treasury Since the GWB administration at August 15, 2023 11:16 AM (KFhLj)

86 Artificially cheap money massively distorted the entire economy. Add to that years of hiding inflation by sending manufacturing to china. I would say that a majority of tech firms cannot operate in a world that does not have cheap money.

Posted by: Thomas Paine at August 15, 2023 11:16 AM (lTGtQ)

87 my local mall closed the enclosed section and now only has stores on the exterior of the mall .. sorta converting to a large strip mall.

A mall near here was forced to do that after the city thoughtfully built a light rail line that goes from that mall to the hood in West Baltimore. The diversity was timing it to grab merchandise and be back on the train moving before the cops could show up.

Posted by: Ian S. at August 15, 2023 11:16 AM (2ocoG)

88 Which is why I would bet that the Dems / Deep State / MFM will move heaven and earth to keep Trump off the ballot so that a witless stooge like Pence, Christie or some other stumblebum will be the 2024 nominee and take office and the full brunt of the blame when it all collapses.
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 15, 2023 11:13 AM (AW0uW)

Good theory. I think they'll just steal it again. Because they can.

Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (BIG3/)

89 I don't think there's any question commercial real estate is a bomb that's going to go off. You can thank Covid bailout money for propping this sector up as long as it did. Basically paying rent for empty buildings.

And after 3 years, student loan payments are going to finally resume. Supposedly.

I'll leave everyone to guess who actually signed into law all of this stimulus bullshit.

Posted by: Blago at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (A+HCt)

90 This is why structural debt is going to eat a lot of enterprises.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:02 AM (WkNQM)

When the founder of my company was in charge, we had money in the bank... then he retired and the new executives decided to borrow, borrow, borrow.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (1Z8zZ)

91 San Fracisco is f***ed in this regard. They just poured vast sums of money into redoing the Moscone Center and now that it's done, nobody wants to go there because San Francisco is such an awful place.

However, NYC was in a similar situation in the 70s-90s. Then Giuliani came in and fixed it with some obvious things like enforcing the law. SF could bounce back if the people there recover some common sense...so probably not.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (eOEVl)

92 All the good people down in Tennessee are digging barefoot Jerry and The CDB!

Posted by: Minnfidel at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (wQvIv)

93 I could practice California law outside S.F. (and even outside CA), but I do it from home, parking's pretty good, no tents in the neighborhood yet, pleasant weather, and a 3-digit monthly mortgage. Could do worse. May still yet!

Posted by: SFGoth at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (KAi1n)

94 But who would want to buy a ticking time bomb at any price?

Aliens.

That’s why the government is going public. To ease us into aliens owning the United States.

Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (EXyHK)

95 So... second look at the "rent is too damn high" guy?

Posted by: Hawkpilot at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (k6uu5)

96 my local mall closed the enclosed section and now only has stores on the exterior of the mall .. sorta converting to a large strip mall.
Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:13 AM (RHGPo)
++++
My town had a mall. Traditional, enclosed, etc. It got torn down back in the mid-aughts and replaced with one of these "outdoor mall" things. It does well. It has a good assortment of stores and a movie theater. Strong mix with no redundancy. It's one of the few I've seen that's really well-managed.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (WkNQM)

97 The two malls in my area are doing surprisingly well. I was there this weekend and it was pretty busy. Of course the area is rather un-diverse and hence no roving bands of “youth” stealing everything in sight.
Posted by: Montec

Penn Sq in OKC seems to be doing fine. As long as the LEGO store is somewhere around I'm fine.

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:18 AM (CIS44)

98 15 minute cities. Where you have no choice. There will be 1 store in the 15 mins. One school. One doctor. One of everything. And if you don’t like it? Tough shit. You’re stuck.

Might as well call them monopoly cities.

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:18 AM (qftaL)

99 I am sure there is some index of regional banks and their exposure to CRE loans.

Anyone want to buy puts on the bank at the top of the list?

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:18 AM (A3700)

100 all these above points are also applicable to the US National debt

it's not bad enough that we are in hock to the tune of 33 trillion, soon to be 37 trillion by Jan 2025, the composition of that debit is the real killer

at least 15 trillion of that debt is being held in low interest bonds that are gonna have to be re upped at a much higher rate

and this will lower the US credit rating which will make it harder for the fed to sell the bonds

and don't look to the Chinese to bail us out, they never have

the dirty secret is that almost all of US is held by US citizens

the Chinese might hold a few points but that's all

Posted by: REDACTED at August 15, 2023 11:18 AM (us2H3)

101 Congratulations to the Taliban on the second anniversary of their glorious victory over the American invaders!

Er - who got fired for that fiasco, again?

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:18 AM (2tUFv)

102 Most of my work is in CRE buildings, in one now

Posted by: Skip at August 15, 2023 11:18 AM (fgqnS)

103 San Fracisco is fucked in this regard. They just poured vast sums of money into redoing the Moscone Center and now that it's done, nobody wants to go there because San Francisco is such an awful place.

I was last at a convention in Moscone in 2014 and SF was still manageable then, but the writing was definitely on the wall.

Posted by: Ian S. at August 15, 2023 11:19 AM (2ocoG)

104 Went into an art store in the local mall last weekend. Everything was on sale. The sales lady said that the store would be closing in ten days because the rent’s too high.

There will be no happy trees.

Posted by: Zombie Bob Ross at August 15, 2023 11:19 AM (3Bv5R)

105 >>Ssshhhh!
Posted by: Billionaires Eying Distressed Wildfire Properties

*Touches side of nose, nods*
Posted by: Blackrock, China
===
Why oh why would they release a plague? A lot of money to be made in the midst of destruction. If you have money to buy cheap assets.

Posted by: Everything is an OP guy at August 15, 2023 11:19 AM (bd20p)

106 Scrapping the infamous Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser hotel cost Disney $250 million, the company announced in its quarterly earnings call last week. With only 100 guest rooms, that breaks down to $2.5 million per room for the failed venture.

Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:19 AM (RHGPo)

107 Gradually, then suddenly.

Looks like we're about to enter the latter stage.

My stockpile of beans and bullets is reasonably complete.

Posted by: Sasquatch, the Original Trans-Wookie at August 15, 2023 11:19 AM (xxG/v)

108 Who's going to be paying the property taxes ?

Posted by: Next2Nothing at August 15, 2023 11:19 AM (tA1/w)

109 There is another trap that some CREs suffer under, where the owner of the building can't lower rents on existing properties because they based their loans on a rental rate floor, which supports the value of the building. Usually you'll see this as a building with high vacancy, with the owner looking at his payments, realizing that he cannot make them, and telling the bank "I can't service the loan any more, here's the title to the building, it's your problem now"

Posted by: JD at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (68vxS)

110 "I would say that a majority of tech firms cannot operate in a world that does not have cheap money.

Posted by: Thomas Paine"

I'm wondering how so many of them operate without, you know, profits but still they do for at least a few years. Higher interest rates will probably shorten that cycle.

Posted by: Ripley at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (KrJTL)

111 I realize the end result of all this is the same as it always is: The American taxpayer is going to get screwed, but there's a part of me that experiences some degree of glee at the thought of commercial real estate bigwigs in New Yak City and Lost Angles losing their shirts.

They broke it, but yeah, we'll end up buying it, because we always do. And due to their throwing around free money like monkeys flinging poo in a zoo, home buyers are going to take a bath on interest rates, right alongside them.

Posted by: BurtTC at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (dGCAG)

112 However, NYC was in a similar situation in the 70s-90s. Then Giuliani came in and fixed it with some obvious things like enforcing the law. SF could bounce back if the people there recover some common sense...so probably not.
Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (eOEVl)
++++
Oh, sure. San Francisco could, with a long-term crackdown and reform like NYC saw with Giuliani, recover. It has a lot going for it. It's beautiful and much of it is still iconic and under effective management it could do great.

I just think that the odds of that happening are pretty damn long.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (WkNQM)

113 Companies sent people to WFH at the same time blue shithole mayors essentially legalized urban crime.

So if you are going back to the big blue shithole office not only do you have to deal with traffic and the smell like before, now you are risking being mugged or raped.

Hell, Seattle sent GOVERNMENT WORKERS home because one city office was too dangerous.

Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (lc5cP)

114 And yet big-city residential real estate continues to peak.
Many remember when 'commercial' real estate was so dear that many houses on main streets had shop fronts, and former apartments were converted to retail and office space.

It does not work so graciously going the other way. Business buildings, for a variety of reasons, don't work well as apartments or condos (although I've been tempted to try it, on a secret-superhero or Bond-villain basis). San Francisco corporate showplaces will need a lot of elevator maintenance once they are given over to the homeless and newly-arrived.

Posted by: Way, Way Downriver at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (4PZHB)

115 Malls are dying.
Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM (xTRSc)

Somewhere, Jeff Bezos smiles.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (1Z8zZ)

116 Good theory. I think they'll just steal it again. Because they can.

MP4's right. They'll let some GOPe stooge win to take the blame for the coming collapse, take the heat off the Dems for being associated with Biden, and to prove elections aren't rigged because a Republican won.

Posted by: Ian S. at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (2ocoG)

117 The parasites have sucked the host dry.

Posted by: PJ at August 15, 2023 11:21 AM (G1dq6)

118 I just have a deep deep dread of debt.

Yeah. About five, six years ago I paid off my home loan. Pulled out savings that incurred more taxes, to pay off a loan that was at a ridiculously low interest rate which means that I also “lost” future (inflationary?) increases in the savings I sold. It was obvious even at the time that paying off that loan didn’t make sense financially.

But I felt better about getting out from under the debt then and I still feel better about it. Now if the Texas House could just get on the ball and help eliminate property taxes I’d actually own my house.

Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at August 15, 2023 11:21 AM (EXyHK)

119 CRE is a self-fucking ice cream cone right now.

With COVID sending people home companies tried to renegotiate rents taking smaller spaces or lower rates. But the CRE companies had a business plan that said if I fill this building at 80% occupancy at $75/sq ft I can make the note. Now everyone wants to pay $50 (or less) a foot. The bank won't let them do that deal because no way they can make the note. There is no something is better than nothing here. The banks prefer empty $75 space to $50 filled space.

So when places are getting to the end of the lease, they are going to just move or not take office space at all, a lot of them, anyway.

Its gonna be bad

Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:21 AM (Jk9SN)

120 You can thank Covid bailout money for propping this sector up as long as it did. Basically paying rent for empty buildings.

And after 3 years, student loan payments are going to finally resume. Supposedly.

In some places, people have been allowed to go 42 months without making a rent or mortgage payment. That money has to be paid back, and it would be in the tens of thousands per person. Additionally, the college debt will have to be paid off, but perhaps not in a lump sum, just higher payments at a higher interest rate for a longer term. Say goodbye to discretionary spending.

Posted by: Thomas Paine at August 15, 2023 11:21 AM (lTGtQ)

121 Biden "Praying" for Maui Blaze Victims, White House Says—Amid Backlash From Earlier "No Comment"

-
The prayers begin "Hail Satan."

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:21 AM (FVME7)

122 and don't look to the Chinese to bail us out, they never have

the dirty secret is that almost all of US is held by US citizens

the Chinese might hold a few points but that's all

The Chinese have much larger problems of their own. They ain't going to bail us out. On the plus side, we'll get to watch all the BRI participants tell China to get bent on repayment.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:21 AM (eOEVl)

123 Why oh why would they release a plague? A lot of money to be made in the midst of destruction. If you have money to buy cheap assets.
Posted by: Everything is an OP guy

What is it they say "When everyone is scared be greedy, when everyone is greedy be scared."

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:21 AM (CIS44)

124 I'm wondering how so many of them operate without, you know, profits but still they do for at least a few years.

Venture capital funding - which pushes market share over profits for new firms for a number of years.

That money is going away.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (2tUFv)

125 The Dems don't need to throw the 2024 election to blame someone else.

Posted by: davidt at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (SYTee)

126 Dershowitz: Georgia Indicted Trump for Doing What Democrats Did for Gore in 2000

Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (RHGPo)

127 “Even if most of these are performing loans today, they’re trying to reduce their exposure by selling loans at a discount as they head into a refinance cycle,”

Why does all this sound so familiar?

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (ynpvh)

128 I was last at a convention in Moscone in 2014 and SF was still manageable then, but the writing was definitely on the wall.
Posted by: Ian S. at August 15, 2023 11:19 AM (2ocoG)
++++
Huh. 2014 was my *first* convention in San Francisco. It was not pleasant. Walking from my hotel (I was staff, so was further from Moscone than most of the attendees, and we didn't get buses unlike the more-distant attendees) to the convention center was an exercise in bum-dodging and being constantly shouted at by crazy street people and the whole place smelled like piss.

It got worse in subsequent years.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (WkNQM)

129
WHAT THE HELL HAVE I BEEN TELLING YOU PEOPLE?

Posted by: Jimmy McMillan at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (AW0uW)

Mention to Lefty LIVs that there are two reasons their rent is too damn high;

1) Immigration
2) Bidenflation

and they lose their minds.

Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (lc5cP)

130 Banks will be fine. These are the perfect conditions for another nice fat juicy government bailout! Do not think it's not coming. It is.

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (iFTx/)

131 I'm wondering how so many of them operate without, you know, profits but still they do for at least a few years. Higher interest rates will probably shorten that cycle.
Posted by: Ripley at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (KrJTL)

Two words: Stock. Prices.

And that ponzi scheme is due to collapse soon too.

Put your money under your mattress, folks. Or buy rubles.

Posted by: BurtTC at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (dGCAG)

132 Also - Monty knows the outcome of the CRE market.

Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (Jk9SN)

133 "I fear just how bad the explosion will be."

For years I have equated our situation to being stuck in a car with someone who is fighting violently to steer the car into a telephone pole.

At a certain point you just have to buckle up and let them do it, so to speak. A collapse has been decades in the making; if you're not ready for this I'm not sure what to tell you.

Posted by: somedood at August 15, 2023 11:23 AM (uGpeQ)

134 McConnell Says He's Not Going Anywhere Anytime Soon Amid Health Concerns

-
Because fuck you guys.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:23 AM (FVME7)

135 Somewhere, Jeff Bezos smiles.

There is no truth to the rumor that Bezos is funding the mobs ransacking stores across Blue America.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:23 AM (2tUFv)

136 I'm sure Chiner will come to the rescue and happily buy up the marquis properties in all our major cities.

Posted by: Zek at August 15, 2023 11:23 AM (5FPX4)

137 All but one mall in my immediate area is dead.

No idea why the particular one that was the last one standing is doing better than the others did, though.

The somewhat-higher-end (but not high-end) one a while farther out is still doing mostly well.

Posted by: XTC at August 15, 2023 11:23 AM (UnA8+)

138 126 Dershowitz: Georgia Indicted Trump for Doing What Democrats Did for Gore in 2000

Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (RHGPo)

I guess they would indict anyone who questions the "official" results, unless they're dems.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 15, 2023 11:23 AM (ynpvh)

139 Oh, sure. San Francisco could, with a long-term crackdown and reform like NYC saw with Giuliani, recover. It has a lot going for it. It's beautiful and much of it is still iconic and under effective management it could do great.

I just think that the odds of that happening are pretty damn long.
Posted by: Joe Mannix

____

It is funny that most all of these problems could easily be solved if affluent white voters dropped their bullshit virtue signaling, but they are way too invested in that. Especially places like San Francisco.

My friends in LA, place looks like a refugee camp even in the affluent areas. They ALMOST elected a Republican mayor, now suddenly the city is finally doing something about the homeless. It's still bad, but they got forced to clean it up at least somewhat.

Blue cities need a Giuliani, but it's just a different electorate now.

Posted by: Blago at August 15, 2023 11:23 AM (A+HCt)

140 McConnell Says He's Not Going Anywhere Anytime Soon Amid Health Concerns

-
Because fuck you guys.

I think it's because he's frozen up again.

Posted by: t-bird at August 15, 2023 11:24 AM (CaJIi)

141 In some places, people have been allowed to go 42 months without making a rent or mortgage payment. That money ~~has to~~ will never be paid back

FIFY

Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:24 AM (eOEVl)

142 Why does all this sound so familiar?
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (ynpvh)

Good question... and why do I have distorted circus calliope music playing in my head.

Posted by: BurtTC at August 15, 2023 11:24 AM (dGCAG)

143 34 The question they should be asking themselves is, can I annex myself to Ukraine and start laundering money for the Regime?

fun fact: laundering money is the reason that we saw so many russians stealing washing machines from ukraine early in the war.

Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:24 AM (oY6Yp)

144 >>> San Francisco corporate showplaces will need a lot of elevator maintenance once they are given over to the homeless and newly-arrived.
Posted by: Way, Way Downriver

Drill 3" hole in center of elevator floor.
Install hose bib near elevator on top floor.
Just wash it all down the bombsight.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at August 15, 2023 11:24 AM (TKbnp)

145 Another thing I've noticed with the COVID checks...finding a contractor to work on your house is almost impossible.

Homeowners that got COVID checks spent them on fixing up the house, and COVID checks for the unemployed as reduced the number of people willing to work at minor construction jobs.

So demand is way up and supply is way down. Which is the Bidenomics way right?

Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:24 AM (lc5cP)

146 Whatever the case with CRE... there's still a lot of ruin left to go in the urban shitholes before they collapse. And bailing the banks out doesn't solve the issue of what to do with the physical buildings that now or later when they have no occupants other than the homeless.

I'm certain many will "somehow" burn to the ground... which might solve some of the underlying financial issues by shoving the problem over to the insurance companies. Creating yet another "crisis."

Posted by: Martini Farmer at August 15, 2023 11:24 AM (Q4IgG)

147 Portland Police Chief Asks Officers to Stop Telling Crime Victims DA Won’t Prosecute Cases

-
They're initiating operation Scam the Suckers.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:25 AM (FVME7)

148 I just think that the odds of that happening are pretty damn long.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (WkNQM)

San Francisco is a small city, so change can occur much more rapidly than, say, NYC or LA.

Back in the mid 1990s it was awful, and the voters had a momentary fit of sanity and elected Frank Jordan as mayor. He cleaned that city up in a heartbeat! It was great!

So the voters punished themselves by canning Jordan and electing Kamala's pimp!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:25 AM (A3700)

149
Joe Biden is a heartless and cold shitheel.

Where'd all your money come from, Joe?

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at August 15, 2023 11:25 AM (5pZqO)

150 Went into an art store in the local mall last weekend. Everything was on sale. The sales lady said that the store would be closing in ten days because the rent’s too high.

There were a number of vacant spaces in what used to be a fully-occupied mall.

Malls are dying.
Posted by: Bulgaroctonus

All of the old ones in the northern DFW area are dead.
Richardson Square, Vista Ridge, Prestonwood, Valley View. Not sure about Collin Creek Mall.

Posted by: rickb223 at August 15, 2023 11:25 AM (iH7eX)

151
Mention to Lefty LIVs that there are two reasons their rent is too damn high;

1) Immigration
2) Bidenflation

—

Left: why can’t evil Corporations pay more money to employees?

Also left: open borders are da bomb!

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:25 AM (qftaL)

152 129
WHAT THE HELL HAVE I BEEN TELLING YOU PEOPLE?

Posted by: Jimmy McMillan at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (AW0uW)

Mention to Lefty LIVs that there are two reasons their rent is too damn high;

1) Immigration
2) Bidenflation

and they lose their minds.

Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:22 AM (lc5cP)

Supply and demand. Immigration increases the demand, Dems' policies inhibit the supply and increase the price via inflation. Win-Win!

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 15, 2023 11:25 AM (ynpvh)

153 Blue cities need a Giuliani, but it's just a different electorate now.

White working-class people in New York elected Giuliani. There are many fewer of them now.

And you're not going to find many in San Francisco.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:25 AM (2tUFv)

154
fun fact: laundering money is the reason that we saw so many russians stealing washing machines from ukraine early in the war.

So...Russians want Uke appliances and Americans want Uke tweens.

And...they are out "allies". What a wonderful world...

Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (lc5cP)

155 In financial accounting class they taught us all the advantages and disadvantages of using debt vs equity to raise funds. It made sense at the time, but I forgot em all. I just have a deep deep dread of debt.
Posted by: Minimal gp-Based Barrier at August 15, 2023 11:14 AM (MvF+J)
++++
I am extremely debt-averse. So are a lot of people I know. The common theme I have identified is a combination of age (Millennials) and family circumstances between 2006 and 2012. For those of us who had parents that either barely hung on or that got swept up in bankruptcy or ruin during the Great Recession, debt-aversion is pretty common. My folks got through it, but mostly through my mom essentially running a full-time financial shell game for several years until my dad got a good job again. It made an impression, and I have avoided debt like the plague.

I know debt can make sense in some circumstances and I have used it when needed, but I don't like it in the slightest.

"I am become debt, the destroyer of worlds."

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (WkNQM)

156 Can't all the major lenders create a bogus loan company and sell all the 'soon to be bad' CRE loans to it?

That way only that scapegoat company goes bankrupt andbe blamed.

Posted by: Dr.Claw at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (uFrU+)

157 It's going to be a blockbuster!

Actress Rachel Zegler Says Prince Stalked Snow White In Original Film, Reveals Live-Action Version Is “Really Not About The Love Story At All”

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (FVME7)

158 Additionally, the college debt will have to be paid off, but perhaps not in a lump sum, just higher payments at a higher interest rate for a longer term. Say goodbye to discretionary spending.
Posted by: Thomas Paine
___

Of all of he Covid nonsense, Trump doing what he did with student loans probably makes me the most angry. Especially since that's a constituency that probably went 90% against him.

If you're paying people to stay at home and do nothing, they have the money to pay their student loans.

Posted by: Blago at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (A+HCt)

159 Obviously the solution is digital currency, all electric vehicles and give up your guns and free speech.

Posted by: Zek at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (5FPX4)

160 McConnell Says He's Not Going Anywhere Anytime Soon Amid Health Concerns

-
Because fuck you guys.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:23 AM (FVME7)

I take some pleasure knowing someone has to wipe the squishy shite from his dried up arse every day. The longer these monsters linger, the more they must contemplate the wrath of God coming their way in mere days, weeks, months.

Posted by: BurtTC at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (dGCAG)

161 Cheap money helps drive tech firms not so much because they can borrow at low cost, but it makes investors seek out ways to improve their returns. If it sits in the bank making 1%, then investing in a startup (or a portfolio of startups) makes more.

If you can put that money in treasury bills for 6% that idea looks less attractive.

Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (Jk9SN)

162 The whole US economy for more than a decade has been built around the concept of cheap money.
Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:12 AM (2tUFv)

I think since Clinton changed the rules on executive pay which caused companies to put in more stock incentives.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (1Z8zZ)

163 132 Also - Monty knows the outcome of the CRE market.

that's because he knows that eating all that debt is something to be avoided. that's right, he's a CRE ate shunnist.

Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:27 AM (oY6Yp)

164 Globally, it looks like hard times are ahead:
China’s economy fell into deflation in July, while factory-gate prices also extended declines. China may be entering an era of much slower economic growth with stagnated consumer prices and wages, contrasting with inflation elsewhere in the world.

Economic slowdowns often happen in capitalist economies. The world is far more concerned about America turning fascist, again, than China gdp at 3%.

A nation that lifted half a billion humans out of poverty is not anyone's enemy. China and India were always the worlds dominant economies until colonialism and slavery and fossil fuels burning jump started the economies. More people means more wealth…who has the people? It’s a good thing, despite western attempts otherwise.

Real estate accounts for about one-fifth of the country's economy, and the sector's headwinds include hefty debt and weak demand from homebuyers. Home transaction volumes across 330 cities in China cratered 19.2% year-over-year in June, according to a Beike Research Institute study, and values have dropped 23.4%.

Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at August 15, 2023 11:27 AM (gUw7i)

165 Obviously the solution is digital currency, all electric vehicles and give up your guns and free speech.
Posted by: Zek at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (5FPX4)

Don't forget zee bugs! You vill eet zee bugs!!

Posted by: BurtTC at August 15, 2023 11:27 AM (dGCAG)

166 99 I am sure there is some index of regional banks and their exposure to CRE loans.

Anyone want to buy puts on the bank at the top of the list?
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:18 AM (A3700)

I wouldn't put too much money on it right now, because you don't know the timing of the collapse. That said, if you continually buy long-dated out-of-the-money puts, you'd be throwing small amounts of money away in the short-term, but when it did hit, you'd make multiples on your investment.

Posted by: Darrell Harris at August 15, 2023 11:27 AM (/iWhV)

167
Left: why can’t evil Corporations pay more money to employees?

The official answer by lefties to why everything has gone to shit since Biden was elected is everyone became "greedy" at the same moment in a heck of a coincidence.

And how do they define greedy? Anyone that isn't them asking for more money irrespective of if their costs have gone up.

Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:27 AM (lc5cP)

168 Because fuck you guys.

I think it's because he's frozen up again.
Posted by: t-bird at August 15, 2023 11:24 AM

Glitch McConnell.

Posted by: Minnfidel at August 15, 2023 11:27 AM (wQvIv)

169 Slowly, then all at once.
At some point you run out of other people's money.
Government has killed the goose that layed the golden egg but we will be the ones that pay the price.

Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (t/2Uw)

170 I see where *biden is offering up $700 to each household that was affected by the fires on Maui. $700.

Do you know how much each household in the US has "contributed" to Ukraine? Your tax dollars? From every household.

$900.

Posted by: Martini Farmer at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (Q4IgG)

171 fun fact: laundering money is the reason that we saw so many russians stealing washing machines from ukraine early in the war.

Until the washing machines were stripped of their computer chips, because the Russkis ran out of computer chips for their missiles.

There is now not a single operating washing machine in Russia. Just part of the Russian economic collapse.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (2tUFv)

172 Actress Rachel Zegler Says Prince Stalked Snow White In Original Film, Reveals Live-Action Version Is “Really Not About The Love Story At All”
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks

If she keeps yakking Disney is gonna have to just dump it on D-

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (CIS44)

173 Malls are dying.
Posted by: Bulgaroctonus at August 15, 2023 11:07 AM
*
my local mall closed the enclosed section and now only has stores on the exterior of the mall .. sorta converting to a large strip mall.
Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023

***
The second biggest one in the 'burbs here, a place that dates to the early or mid-Sixties, has had the interior closed off "for renovations and repairs" since the hurricane in 2021. Target and the multi-screen movie theater are the only big tenants left since Bed, Bath, and Beyond went bye-bye. Well, no, there's a medical clinic that moved into the space where Sears used to be -- but again, that's all accessed from the outside.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (J2vNu)

174 157 It's going to be a blockbuster!

Actress Rachel Zegler Says Prince Stalked Snow White In Original Film, Reveals Live-Action Version Is “Really Not About The Love Story At All”

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (FVME7)

The Grimm Fairytale version wasn't either. Prince saw Snow White there, took advantage while she was witch-roofied.

Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (ynpvh)

175 that's because he knows that eating all that debt is something to be avoided. that's right, he's a CRE ate shunnist.
Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:27 AM (oY6Yp)

Boo. I give you a score of 0.5 Muldoons for that.

Posted by: BurtTC at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (dGCAG)

176 The big indoor mall in my town has been sealed up and turned into a data center.

Posted by: Queequeg the Harpooner at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (9X60i)

177 When Doom is headed for you at 90 mph blowing its horns, waving red flags, and sounding sirens, it's hard to not say something about it.

Posted by: Tom Servo at August 15, 2023 11:29 AM (LpQp2)

178 Beautiful downtown Baltimore would be perfect for the new FBI headquarters. Just sayin.'

Posted by: Meade Lux Lewis, Domestic Terrorist at August 15, 2023 11:29 AM (sWM8x)

179 Do you know how much each household in the US has "contributed" to Ukraine? Your tax dollars? From every household.

$900.

Ukraine's more important.

There's more graft there.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:29 AM (2tUFv)

180 The Grimm Fairytale version wasn't either. Prince saw Snow White there, took advantage while she was witch-roofied.

That sounds like a bunch of Greek legends.

Some greek god found his stepsister stuck in a bronze age washing machine and then...

Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:30 AM (lc5cP)

181 "Beautiful downtown Baltimore would be perfect for the new FBI headquarters. Just sayin."

My vote is Juno.

Posted by: Zek at August 15, 2023 11:30 AM (5FPX4)

182 172 Actress Rachel Zegler Says Prince Stalked Snow White In Original Film, Reveals Live-Action Version Is “Really Not About The Love Story At All”
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks

If she keeps yakking Disney is gonna have to just dump it on D-
Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (CIS44)
____________

She is retarded and not very good at what she does (which I assume isn't sucking producers' dicks, but what do I know?). She's headed for the Lindsey Lohan career path . . . .

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 15, 2023 11:30 AM (iFTx/)

183 Oh, the lefty activists propose this all the time. Too bad it can't work.
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:15 AM (WkNQM)

As long as the right people get paid they will have achieved their goal.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:30 AM (1Z8zZ)

184 My vote is Juno.

Snow doesn't shoot you for meth money

Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:30 AM (lc5cP)

185 Of all of he Covid nonsense, Trump doing what he did with student loans probably makes me the most angry. Especially since that's a constituency that probably went 90% against him.

—

Student loans were “paused”. Small business loans? Nope. Truck loans by plumbers? Nope. The very people who voted for him got shit. The people who want him in prison for life got trillions.

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:30 AM (qftaL)

186 I'm surprised that Top Men haven't suggested using vacant commercial property to house the multitudes of glorious dreamers flooding our country... at taxpayer expense, of course.

Building codes.
Office space would not be acceptable for use as residences without major renovation (yeah, I know, rules could be waived but won't because that would be "unfair" to the homeless). I think I saw one article that said it would be cheaper to tear down offices and build residential units.

Posted by: mark at August 15, 2023 11:31 AM (0x+UK)

187 I see where *biden is offering up $700 to each household that was affected by the fires on Maui. $700.

Do you know how much each household in the US has "contributed" to Ukraine? Your tax dollars? From every household.

$900.

Wow, you rarely see an off-topic double bank shot.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:31 AM (eOEVl)

188 ... A nation that lifted half a billion humans out of poverty is not anyone's enemy. China and India were always the worlds dominant economies until colonialism and slavery and fossil fuels burning jump started the economies. More people means more wealth…who has the people? It’s a good thing, despite western attempts otherwise. ...
Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at August 15, 2023 11:27 AM (gUw7i)
++++
I wonder what it's like to be stupid. I mean, I'm not a genius or anything but I have a handful of spare brain cells. I have no way to know how it feels to be this dumb.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:31 AM (WkNQM)

189 I smell the mother of all bailouts coming. Well, until the bailout after that one.

Money printer goes burrrr.

Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 15, 2023 11:31 AM (JTwsP)

190 Zuck: Cluck cluck cluck

Zuckerberg Chickens Out of Charity MMA Fight With Elon Musk

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:31 AM (FVME7)

191 The Towne Mall here consists of a forlorn JC Pennys, a bunch of game arcades and a budget department store that I can't remember the name of. There might be a shoe store.

I haven't been in it for a decade or so.

Full of yoots looking for trouble.

Posted by: Martini Farmer at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (Q4IgG)

192 I'm surprised that Top Men haven't suggested using vacant commercial property to house the multitudes of glorious dreamers flooding our country... at taxpayer expense, of course.

If you read the local news from around the country the people that have taken in illegals aren't very happy.

Sure you get government checks but the illegals don't know how plumbing works and you will be replacing massive water damage.

Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (lc5cP)

193 159 Obviously the solution is digital currency, all electric vehicles and give up your guns and free speech.
Posted by: Zek at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM

Don't forget about us!!

Posted by: Universal Healthcare, UBI, own nothing and be happy, unlimited immigration, free housing and food... at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (gUw7i)

194 Actress Rachel Zegler Says Prince Stalked Snow White In Original Film

**************

Fuck you, you cunt diseased yeast machine

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (VTu1l)

195 If not the cause the having workers stay at home has to be choking real estate. Often it seems we refurbished a office building floor ( as am now) and when done maybe 12 people will move in.

Posted by: Skip at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (fgqnS)

196 Another thing that is keeping the businesses afloat is a recent EO by Biden.
If your business was "disrupted" by Covid, for even a single day, you can claim a (IIRC) $12k tax credit for every employee.

There are huge amounts of fraud, of course. Lots of folks faking up LLC and backdating.

But, $30-40 million a month is being handed out.

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (wbBkh)

197 As long as the right people get paid they will have achieved their goal.
Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:30 AM (1Z8zZ)
++++
Yup.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (WkNQM)

198 She is retarded and not very good at what she does (which I assume isn't sucking producers' dicks, but what do I know?). She's headed for the Lindsey Lohan career path . . . .
Posted by: Elric Blade

Lindsey at least had a notable career as younger actress (parent trap, freaky friday and mean girls) and a period of time where she was quite good looking. Rachel is/has neither

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (CIS44)

199 63
'Put bowls of anti-freeze out for them.'

You aren't kidding. Mice and rats love that shit. It would be perfect for pest control if dogs and cats didn't drink it too.

Posted by: Dr.Claw at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (uFrU+)

200 The big mall nearest me has lost its biggest anchor retail places and it is turning into more of a "destination" place. What was Sears is now a Dave and Busters, and they have a Kids Science workshop place and an airsoft indoor playrange.

Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (Jk9SN)

201 It made an impression, and I have avoided debt like the plague.

I know debt can make sense in some circumstances and I have used it when needed, but I don't like it in the slightest.

"I am become debt, the destroyer of worlds."
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (WkNQM)
---
The only debt I have right now is my house. I'm shoveling money into it as fast as I can (while still maintaining a healthy savings balance) so I can finish paying off the mortgage. I went with a 30-year fixed and I intend to have it paid off in 15 years, which should happen within the next 3 years.

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (YIVH2)

202 108 Who's going to be paying the property taxes ?
Posted by: Next2Nothing at August 15, 2023 11:19 AM (tA1/w)

Good question. Town I live in has lost it's two largest employers. The larger of the two is going in on WFH and is consolidating office space elsewhere. Fairly new campus, parking garage, and infrastructure.

Second largest is going tango-uniform (justly so) because of poor management. One of their buildings is sold, their corporate HQ is empty.

For a small state like NH, there is a glut in office space. With that, a lot of CRE debt. Lot of tax money is gone.

Posted by: Our Country is Screwed at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (N39Ws)

203 The big indoor mall in my town has been sealed up and turned into a data center.
Posted by: Queequeg the Harpooner at August 15, 2023 11:28 AM (9X60i)

I worked in one of those for years. Plenty of sq footage for CO equipment and future expansion.

Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at August 15, 2023 11:33 AM (BIG3/)

204 I'll leave everyone to guess who actually signed into law all of this stimulus bullshit.
Posted by: Blago at August 15, 2023 11:17 AM (A+HCt)

Bush? Since we haven't had a budget since... 2003 or something. But, sure, dump on Trump. No doubt whoever you support will rein in spending.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:33 AM (1Z8zZ)

205 to rain bailouts

Is the kazoo ready?

Posted by: Headless chicken at August 15, 2023 11:33 AM (FhXTo)

206 This bikini brunette on the beach is wondering if the beachside bar counts as commercial real estate:
https://is.gd/xa7vx3

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:33 AM (WkNQM)

207 Rachel Zegler is weird looking, but does have a nice rack, so I guess she is not quite worthless.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:33 AM (A3700)

208 The official answer by lefties to why everything has gone to shit since Biden was elected is everyone became "greedy" at the same moment in a heck of a coincidence

/-

My reply to the greedy idiocy is “aren’t you greedy for demanding high pay?”

I can see the mini aneurism happen in real time.

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:33 AM (qftaL)

209 I see where *biden is offering up $700 to each household that was affected by the fires on Maui. $700.

Enjoy a free night in a hotel on us, folks! Gee whiz, in Maui, no less. Some people have all the luck.

Posted by: Joe Biden at August 15, 2023 11:34 AM (CaJIi)

210 "Malls are dying."

What, again?

I remember when that happened in the early 90s.

Posted by: FeatherBlade at August 15, 2023 11:34 AM (ou9hh)

211 The big mall nearest me has lost its biggest anchor retail places and it is turning into more of a "destination" place

Mall near me has lost its anchor stores. Reduced traffic has killed off the smaller stores as well. They are using this space for people to park/store their antique/exotic vehicles.

Posted by: Our Country is Screwed at August 15, 2023 11:34 AM (N39Ws)

212 The only debt I have right now is my house. I'm shoveling money into it as fast as I can (while still maintaining a healthy savings balance) so I can finish paying off the mortgage. I went with a 30-year fixed and I intend to have it paid off in 15 years, which should happen within the next 3 years.
Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (YIVH2)
++++
Then you can retire. Not immediately, of course, but having no big monthly housing payment makes retirement a lot more possible.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:34 AM (WkNQM)

213 171 fun fact: laundering money is the reason that we saw so many russians stealing washing machines from ukraine early in the war.

Until the washing machines were stripped of their computer chips, because the Russkis ran out of computer chips for their missiles.

There is now not a single operating washing machine in Russia. Just part of the Russian economic collapse.

does that mean they're laundering their money by hand?

Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:34 AM (oY6Yp)

214 The Feds could just do a $1,000,000,000,000 CRE bailout.

Posted by: MAGA_Ken at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (2HWEq)

215 I did not know, but one guy I was listening to said most commercial property loans are 5 year notes.

And they were all just refinancing every 5 years back when rates were low.

And now they are coming due.

And they can't afford the current rates now .....

Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (wbBkh)

216 This bikini brunette on the beach is wondering if the beachside bar counts as commercial real estate:
https://is.gd/xa7vx3
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:33 AM (WkNQM)

I have spots before my eyes! But there's a remedy for that...

Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (nvvwD)

217 This bikini brunette on the beach is wondering if the beachside bar counts as commercial real estate:

Much too narrow through the hips. In fact, this might be the model used in the art thread this morning.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (eOEVl)

218 Lindsay Lohan just had a baby, and in the pictures she posted she looks surprisingly wholesome and pretty.

Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (JTwsP)

219 $700! $700! These people have lost their homes and everything i n them and he's giving them $700? And he's not giving them anything. He's giving them our money. Waiting to see the donation from the 11 million dollars he got when he left office in 2016.

Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (t/2Uw)

220 Wow, you rarely see an off-topic double bank shot.

How DARE you post anything off-topic!

Speaking of which, the Glorious Ukrainian Summer Offensive doesn't seem to be going well:

The head of the NATO Secretary General's office, Stian Jensen, said that Ukraine could get NATO membership in exchange for ceding part of the territory to the Russian Federation, and this could be part of a deal to end the war: “I think the solution could be that Ukraine give up the territory and receive NATO membership in return,” Jenssen said.

Uh-oh.

Posted by: The Off-Topic Police! at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (2tUFv)

221 Student loans were “paused”. Small business loans? Nope. Truck loans by plumbers? Nope. The very people who voted for him got shit. The people who want him in prison for life got trillions.
Posted by: Montec
___

My small business qualified for $1000 of loan forgiveness. TOTAL.

I didnt qualify for any of the "check in the mail" nonsense where people kept getting $1000 checks mailed to them.

But all the Hillary/Biden/Obama voters got showered in cash.

Posted by: Blago at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (A+HCt)

222 17 John Dean: Trump indictments over 2020 election ‘much bigger than Watergate’

.. Dean "jumps the shark"
Posted by: SMOD
-------
Dean was and has been a Watergate Ho for the media to hit on the GOP. Notice he says nothing about Biden, Clinton, or other corrupt Dems.

He is there solely to play to the Boomer and Silents tv audiences that even remember Watergate or Richard Nixon.

Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (6BfIu)

223 If trump were prezzy, he’d give Maui residents $20k or some shit. Because if there is one thing Trump did well, was reward his enemies financially.

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:36 AM (qftaL)

224 Lindsay Lohan just had a baby, and in the pictures she posted she looks surprisingly wholesome and pretty.
Posted by: sniffybigtoe

her last round(s) of plastic surgery were frightening.

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:36 AM (CIS44)

225 Can't all the major lenders create a bogus loan company and sell all the 'soon to be bad' CRE loans to it?

That way only that scapegoat company goes bankrupt andbe blamed.

Fannie May has entered the chat...

Posted by: Hawkpilot at August 15, 2023 11:36 AM (k6uu5)

226 'the city thoughtfully built a light rail line that goes from that mall to the hood in West Baltimore.'

This crime should carry the same penalty as putting Ebola in the water supply.

Posted by: Dr.Claw at August 15, 2023 11:36 AM (uFrU+)

227 It occurs to me that at some point the Feds simply start "buying" all of this property at book value to keep the banks afloat, and of course they will simply create whatever is needed to do it.

Hence my gut feeling is that we're headed for south American style 10 per cent per month inflation. (120% per year)

Posted by: Tom Servo at August 15, 2023 11:36 AM (LpQp2)

228 193 Don't forget about us!!
Posted by: Universal Healthcare, UBI, own nothing and be happy, unlimited immigration, free housing and food...

i'm guessing that by "food" you mean cool ranch flavored crickets.

Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM (oY6Yp)

229 The feds will buy the vacant properties and use them as camps.

For political prisoners.

Posted by: Not trying to be mean but... at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM (pHPwR)

230 $700! $700! These people have lost their homes and everything i n them and he's giving them $700? And he's not giving them anything. He's giving them our money. Waiting to see the donation from the 11 million dollars he got when he left office in 2016.
Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (t/2Uw)

The amount should be $0. If their home burned they have insurance. If they don’t have insurance,
Well tough shit.

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM (qftaL)

231 211 The big mall nearest me has lost its biggest anchor retail places and it is turning into more of a "destination" place

Mall near me has lost its anchor stores. Reduced traffic has killed off the smaller stores as well. They are using this space for people to park/store their antique/exotic vehicles.
Posted by: Our Country is Screwed at August 15, 2023 11:34 AM (N39Ws)

In both cases the CRE owner is trying to offset that. Malls are different from offices, they can probably do the something is better than nothing plan. BUT think about how much different the economic activity is - with the destination activities and car storage there is a lot less dollar per square foot in transactions.

Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM (Jk9SN)

232 And they were all just refinancing every 5 years back when rates were low.

And now they are coming due.

And they can't afford the current rates now .....
Posted by: People's Hippo Voice at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (wbBkh)
++++
Now apply this to every aspect of the economy, and you see the problem of when interest rates finally hit the zero boundary and have to rebound.

Virtually nobody knows how to deal with it. Interest rates spent 40 years declining (from the end of the Reagan Recession until 2021). Everyone from business executives to risk managers to government finance types have spent their entire careers (or close to it, for the oldest employees) in a declining-rate environment.

The learning curve is going to be awfully sharp.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM (WkNQM)

233 As the waves splash the walls of Fort Sumter . . .

The fact that 18 million people think that force would be justified to restore Trump to the presidency is a bit scary, I admit.

The fact that nearly twice as many believe that force is justified in order to prevent his return to office is even more scary. That is 30 million people who, a bit more than a year out from an election that could have Trump reelected, inclined to take up arms in an insurrection.

https://tinyurl.com/tac8t2x2

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM (FVME7)

234 The official answer by lefties to why everything has gone to shit since Biden was elected is everyone became "greedy" at the same moment in a heck of a coincidence.
Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:27 AM

It's amazing how much the Left believes the "inflation is optional, it only because companies are greedy" lie.

Here's a 5 minute discussion by Marxist Economic Professor Richard Wolff explaining the whole thing. You won't be able to get past 60 seconds without exclaiming "that's retarded", throwing your phone across the room, or other understandable outburst.
https://youtu.be/RH1tT4NW8NI

Posted by: Intercepted DU Transmissions brought by the Intrepid AoS Liaison at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (gUw7i)

235 Then you can retire. Not immediately, of course, but having no big monthly housing payment makes retirement a lot more possible.
Posted by: Joe Mannix

Only if you can afford the upkeep, taxes, and insurance. People don't look at housing using the same criteria as any other investment--the quick and dirty rule is whether rent for a house of similar size and quality is above or below the price of your house plus how long you plan on staying there.

Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (6BfIu)

236 " Imagine if we lived in a world where people and corporations actually owned things rather than mortgaging them."

Except for the part where I kind of want the banks to fail for being stupid, maybe a debt jubilee is just what this country needs: all debts public and private rendered null and void.

It would put the collection agencies out of business for a while, but oh well, omelette, eggs, you know the drill.

Posted by: FeatherBlade at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (ou9hh)

237 224 Lindsay Lohan just had a baby, and in the pictures she posted she looks surprisingly wholesome and pretty.
Posted by: sniffybigtoe

her last round(s) of plastic surgery were frightening.
Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:36 AM (CIS44)

Lindsay's been around the block so many times her OBGYN only had to use a catcher's mitt for delivery.

Posted by: Our Country is Screwed at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (N39Ws)

238 "Malls are dying."

What, again?

I remember when that happened in the early 90s.
Posted by: FeatherBlade

That was due to the shift from the boom of 80s Reaganomics to Clinton.

What’s happening now is due to everything being completely boned.

Posted by: db (lowercase since 2008) back from a 2 year break at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (wu87C)

239 134
'McConnell Says He's Not Going Anywhere Anytime Soon Amid Health Concerns'

You better stay away from down staircases, you turtle headed son of a bitch.

Posted by: Dr.Claw at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (uFrU+)

240 Then you can retire. Not immediately, of course, but having no big monthly housing payment makes retirement a lot more possible.
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:34 AM (WkNQM)
---
That's the plan...work for about 10 years or so once the house is paid off and then live off savings + retirement benefits (pension + 403b) + SS (pocket change at that point)

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (YIVH2)

241 145 Another thing I've noticed with the COVID checks...finding a contractor to work on your house is almost impossible.

Homeowners that got COVID checks spent them on fixing up the house, and COVID checks for the unemployed as reduced the number of people willing to work at minor construction jobs.

So demand is way up and supply is way down. Which is the Bidenomics way right?
Posted by: 18-1 at August 15, 2023 11:24 AM
I put mine in the offering plate at church. The one I kept went towards 'something else'.

Posted by: Eromero at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (NxC5+)

242 219 $700! $700! These people have lost their homes and everything i n them and he's giving them $700?

you're just jealous because that means they've only donated $200 to ukraine

Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:39 AM (oY6Yp)

243 Hence my gut feeling is that we're headed for south American style 10 per cent per month inflation. (120% per year)
==
But your paycheck will not come close to keeping up.
When people can't earn enough to eat...shtf.

Posted by: Everything is an OP guy at August 15, 2023 11:39 AM (bd20p)

244 I went with a 30-year fixed and I intend to have it paid off in 15 years, which should happen within the next 3 years.

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at August 15, 2023 11:32 AM (YIVH2)

Except...if you have a reasonable interest rate you would be paying off the mortgage with inflated dollars, so classic economics says to keep that cheap mortgage and invest the extra cash to earn a higher return.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:39 AM (A3700)

245 The Towne Mall here consists of a forlorn JC Pennys, a bunch of game arcades and a budget department store that I can't remember the name of. There might be a shoe store.

I haven't been in it for a decade or so.

Full of yoots looking for trouble.
Posted by: Martini Farmer at August 15, 2023

***
The biggest mall in the area, which began as a giant strip mall in the late Fifties, is still doing quite well. It even added multi-story free parking some eyars ago. The only one near me, which dates to about 1966 (the first mall I ever knew), is still going, but the "yoots" swarm quite a bit there too.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere at August 15, 2023 11:39 AM (J2vNu)

246 I'd been surprised if the commercial real estate in Pittsburgh was 50% occupancy before the plandemic.

Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at August 15, 2023 11:39 AM (BIG3/)

247 Kansas Paper Raided by Police was Investigating Police Chief Over Sexual Misconduct Allegations

It turns out the Marian County Record was investigating Marion Police Chief Gideon Cody over sexual misconduct allegation.

Cody came to the Marion Police Department in April. He retired as a captain in Kansas City, MO.

Cody’s former colleagues reached out to the Marion County Record about the sexual misconduct allegations.

Posted by: SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:39 AM (RHGPo)

248 A lot of outfits got fat on secularly-declining interest rates. Hell, you don't even need a penny of profit to make money on declining rates. But when that stops and it becomes a secularly-rising market, you get your face ripped off.
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:02 AM (WkNQM)

What does "secularly" mean in this context?

Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at August 15, 2023 11:39 AM (nC+QA)

249 Hence my gut feeling is that we're headed for south American style 10 per cent per month inflation. (120% per year)
Posted by: Tom Servo at August 15, 2023 11:36 AM (LpQp2)

I have been saying for a while - and it hasn't yet happened for a while - that "they" want a good snort of 1500% inflation. Debts get inflated away, government clients who are payed indexed to inflation get covered.

Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:39 AM (Jk9SN)

250 Now if the Texas House could just get on the ball and help eliminate property taxes I’d actually own my house.
Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at August 15, 2023 11:21 AM (EXyHK)

And where would the tax dollars come from?

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM (1Z8zZ)

251 That's racist!

The Black Sea Is Becoming Ground Zero in the Ukraine War

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM (FVME7)

252 It took a day or two, but the penny finally dropped and I can say what other 'protest' song reminds me of "Rich Men North of Richmond."

That would be PF Sloan's "Eve of Destruction."
You are welcome to that earworm.
NB, Sloan also wrote "Secret Agent Man."

Posted by: Way, Way Downriver at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM (4PZHB)

253 The amount should be $0. If their home burned they have insurance. If they don’t have insurance,
Well tough shit.

Not to mention that most of Maui lives an hour or more away from the fire.

Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM (2tUFv)

254 not a wild prediction to assert that there is about to be a big explosion. The CRE debt maturity crisis is that freight train. I fear just how bad the explosion will be.

Freight train? No problem!

Posted by: East Palestine, Ohio at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM (KXOhw)

255 i'm guessing that by "food" you mean cool ranch flavored crickets.
Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM (oY6Yp)
---
Ugh! I *hate* cool-ranch flavor!

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM (YIVH2)

256 The fact that 18 million people think that force would be justified to restore Trump to the presidency is a bit scary, I admit.

The fact that nearly twice as many believe that force is justified in order to prevent his return to office is even more scary. That is 30 million people who, a bit more than a year out from an election that could have Trump reelected, inclined to take up arms in an insurrection.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM

We've seen the arms of the 30 million...as well as the weak chests, mental health issues, and general lack of skills. I'd take those 2-1 odds any day.

Posted by: Moron Analyst at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM (JCZqz)

257 You never forget your first complete financial collapse.
Ah memories....

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo, food, water at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM (xcxpd)

258 The one I kept went towards 'something else'.

Posted by: Eromero at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (NxC5+)

What caliber?

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM (A3700)

259 The situation is about to get really bad, with no good solution.

-----------

China can buy all the banks and their worthless, foreclosed properties. Almost as if it was planned and designed that way.

Imagine the ROI on that 10% for The Big Guy ...

Posted by: ShainS -- Chief 'Misinformation' Researcher at AoSHQ at August 15, 2023 11:41 AM (6VKyY)

260 210 "Malls are dying."

What, again?

I remember when that happened in the early 90s.
--------------
Yep. I can't remember the last time I went a mall. All I recall was it seemed like South Africa.

Posted by: Puddinhead at August 15, 2023 11:41 AM (uia9V)

261 Speaking of which, the Glorious Ukrainian Summer Offensive doesn't seem to be going well: ...
Posted by: The Off-Topic Police! at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (2tUFv)
++++
Based on my proxy for high-level status reports on the situation in Ukraine, I concur. I go by the YouTube sidebar of recommended videos. They're back to all "END OF PUTIN AS GLORIOUS UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE ..." content.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:41 AM (WkNQM)

262 The uncertainty of riches...

Posted by: Paul to Timoi at August 15, 2023 11:42 AM (NBVIP)

263 The federal building on 7th between Market and Mission has told any employees who can to work from home. Too much drug dealing and usage in front of the building and down the entire block.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 15, 2023 11:42 AM (KAi1n)

264 161 Cheap money helps drive tech firms not so much because they can borrow at low cost, but it makes investors seek out ways to improve their returns. If it sits in the bank making 1%, then investing in a startup (or a portfolio of startups) makes more.

If you can put that money in treasury bills for 6% that idea looks less attractive.
Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (Jk9SN)

High Yield Savings accounts are hitting 5% now.

Posted by: Brie Larson at August 15, 2023 11:42 AM (53oGX)

265 255 i'm guessing that by "food" you mean cool ranch flavored crickets.
Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM (oY6Yp)
---
Ugh! I *hate* cool-ranch flavor!

cheer up! pumpkin spice flavored cricket season is just around the corner!

Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:42 AM (oY6Yp)

266 We've seen the arms of the 30 million...as well as the weak chests, mental health issues, and general lack of skills. I'd take those 2-1 odds any day.

************************

Also the numbers are bullshit, they did not go out and poll 48 million people

lets suppose that was even true, how many chest thumping lefty males claiming they would take MAGA peeps out in the woodshed were wearing makeup and mantyhose?

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort at August 15, 2023 11:42 AM (VTu1l)

267 "I’m trying not to write as many stories as I had been predicting “Doom!” However, when you see a freight train barreling down the tracks at a tanker truck stuck on a railroad crossing, it’s not a wild prediction to assert that there is about to be a big explosion. The CRE debt maturity crisis is that freight train. I fear just how bad the explosion will be."

It sounds like it has the potential to at least equal the Great Depression, possibly exceed it, in terms of *everyone* being wiped out as more banks implode.

Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at August 15, 2023 11:42 AM (nC+QA)

268 "Lindsay Lohan just had a baby, and in the pictures she posted she looks surprisingly wholesome and pretty.
Posted by: sniffybigtoe "

She probably got her blood flushed and changed.

Posted by: Ripley at August 15, 2023 11:43 AM (KrJTL)

269 The fact that 18 million people think that force would be justified to restore Trump to the presidency is a bit scary, I admit.

-----------

18,000,001.

Posted by: ShainS -- Chief 'Misinformation' Researcher at AoSHQ at August 15, 2023 11:43 AM (6VKyY)

270 If you have. A sub 4% mortgage you’d be insane to pay it off early. Especially right now where a CD is paying 5%.

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:43 AM (qftaL)

271 Lol. How did we "solve" 2008?

Posted by: Thesokorus at August 15, 2023 11:43 AM (2PVXF)

272 I have a grand total of $1200 tied up in two residential mortgages. I should probably pay one of them off just in case the banks try to fuck with me. Or the feds. Or both.

I'll need to evaluate offensive and defensive positions at both locations. The property in West Virginia is pretty remote.... *begins scribbling notes*

Posted by: Martini Farmer at August 15, 2023 11:43 AM (Q4IgG)

273 There is no truth to the rumor that Bezos is funding the mobs ransacking stores across Blue America.
Posted by: The ARC of History! at August 15, 2023 11:23 AM (2tUFv)

No, but he helps fund the politicians who make them possible.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:43 AM (1Z8zZ)

274 @186

>>Building codes.
Office space would not be acceptable for use as residences without major renovation

Most commercial real estate does not have shower or kitchen facilities.

Although, I don't think the illegals will have a problem showering in a communal slop sink/tub nor having cookouts on the roof.

I mean, The Junta has crammed over 8 million more people into the country in the last 2-1/2 years, gotta do something with them.

Posted by: Thomas Bender at August 15, 2023 11:43 AM (up/3i)

275 On the one hand, I feel like DOOM is well deserved in this country. We just keep doing things that bring it on.

At the same time, I would prefer that we not have a total crash, lose a war, etc.

Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:43 AM (Jk9SN)

276 So Titanic has called and wants its chairs back?

Posted by: Anna Puma at August 15, 2023 11:44 AM (CyPqT)

277 If you can put that money in treasury bills for 6% that idea looks less attractive.
Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:26 AM (Jk9SN)

High Yield Savings accounts are hitting 5% now.
Posted by: Brie Larson at August 15, 2023 11:42 AM

Brie, honey...your options for more attractive investments include more squats and plunging necklines.

Posted by: Moron Analyst at August 15, 2023 11:44 AM (JCZqz)

278 Except...if you have a reasonable interest rate you would be paying off the mortgage with inflated dollars, so classic economics says to keep that cheap mortgage and invest the extra cash to earn a higher return.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo
------
True.

Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 11:44 AM (6BfIu)

279 All is proceeding as I have foreseen.

*Prohibitions against usery*

Posted by: Just Lily at August 15, 2023 11:44 AM (RLLZj)

280 What does "secularly" mean in this context?
Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at August 15, 2023 11:39 AM (nC+QA)
++++
Long-term.

"Secular" is the opposite of "cyclical." There any number of cyclical increases in interest rate over the past 40 years, but the overall trend - the secular trend - was downward. I don't know why that word is used, but it is.

Basically, "secular" means "big and slow trends with lots of power."

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:44 AM (WkNQM)

281 Brie, honey...your options for more attractive investments include more squats and plunging necklines.
Posted by: Moron Analyst

and gags.

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:45 AM (CIS44)

282 bikini brunette on the beach is wondering if the beachside bar counts as commercial real estate:
https://is.gd/xa7vx3
Posted by: Joe Mannix (

a chivette

Posted by: DaveA at August 15, 2023 11:45 AM (FhXTo)

283 To infinity and beyond!

Is the U.S. Military’s TR-3B Aircraft a Reverse-engineered UFO?

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:45 AM (FVME7)

284 216 This bikini brunette on the beach is wondering if the beachside bar counts as commercial real estate:
https://is.gd/xa7vx3
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:33 AM (WkNQM)
_________

So photoshopped her body doesn't even look like it goes with her boobs or head. Pass!

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 15, 2023 11:45 AM (iFTx/)

285 I guess a person with more money than sense could buy up large sections of CR but the investment would be very long term and the possibility it could all go tits up is very high.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at August 15, 2023 11:45 AM (5xURv)

286 Off no ass sock

Posted by: Inogame at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (53oGX)

287 This bikini brunette on the beach is wondering if the beachside bar counts as commercial real estate:
https://is.gd/xa7vx3
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:33 AM (WkNQM)

Tight and toned, just my style

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo, food, water at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (xcxpd)

288 Those of you who think insurance will cover those irreplaceable items that get lost in a fire are delusional. Those people lost everything through no fault of their own. I tried to think about what I would grab if I had minutes to evacuate my little condo and their were so many precious things that would be lost, not money wise, but because of the memories they hold, that I figured I would grab my purse and run for my life. Did you see pictures of people in the ocean because it was the only escape?
How about a little compassion?

Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (t/2Uw)

289 High Yield Savings accounts are hitting 5% now.
Posted by: Brie Larson at August 15, 2023 11:42 AM (53oGX)
++++
Some are. Not many. Most of them are closer to 4.8%.

My blended yield on all very short-term Treasury securities (4/8/13/26 week) is 5.28% this week, and it's been shooting up. Six weeks ago, it was 5.15%.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (WkNQM)

290 i'm guessing that by "food" you mean cool ranch flavored crickets.
Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:37 AM

The spicy salsa ones are better, papi!

Posted by: Alexandria Occasional-Cortex at August 15, 2023 11:47 AM (t9Rkp)

291 Those of you who think insurance will cover those irreplaceable items that get lost in a fire are delusional. Those people lost everything through no fault of their own. I tried to think about what I would grab if I had minutes to evacuate my little condo and their were so many precious things that would be lost, not money wise, but because of the memories they hold, that I figured I would grab my purse and run for my life. Did you see pictures of people in the ocean because it was the only escape?
How about a little compassion?
Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice)

700$ of my money doesnt replace those things either.

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:47 AM (CIS44)

292 I drove a Chivette in college.

Posted by: Back in the day at August 15, 2023 11:47 AM (NBVIP)

293 A known, manageable loss now makes perfect sense if it gets a CRE loan off the books. But who would want to buy a ticking time bomb at any price?

As I've said before, some days you just can't get rid of a bomb.

Posted by: B. Wayne, Gotham at August 15, 2023 11:47 AM (OUMaO)

294 Speaking of which, the Glorious Ukrainian Summer Offensive doesn't seem to be going well: ...

Posted by: The Off-Topic Police! at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (2tUFv)

-------------

"Send MOAR money and tactical nukes ... but mostly tactical nukes!"

Posted by: ShainS -- Misinflation, Disinflation, & Malinflation Researcher at August 15, 2023 11:47 AM (6VKyY)

295 "I wonder what it's like to be stupid. I mean, I'm not a genius or anything but I have a handful of spare brain cells. I have no way to know how it feels to be this dumb."

A couple weeks of constant sleep deprivation will give you an idea of what it's like.

Posted by: FeatherBlade at August 15, 2023 11:47 AM (ou9hh)

296 Re: former S.F. mayor Frank Jordan. Got tarred for being a Republican. Was a lifelong Democrat. That's all the opp had to say about him even though he wasn't a Republican. But he had been Chief of Police (or something like that), so, Republican. Willie actually wasn't that bad. He did veto a local ordinance, got his veto overriden by the Board of Supervisors, and then I got it declared unconstitutional. :-> S.F. was trying to outlaw tenancies-in-common (3 people own a 3-unit building, each gets exclusive occupancy of their unit even though they're not condos).

Posted by: SFGoth at August 15, 2023 11:47 AM (KAi1n)

297 237 224 Lindsay Lohan just had a baby, and in the pictures she posted she looks surprisingly wholesome and pretty.
Posted by: sniffybigtoe

her last round(s) of plastic surgery were frightening.
Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:36 AM (CIS44)

Lindsay's been around the block so many times her OBGYN only had to use a catcher's mitt for delivery.
Posted by: Our Country is Screwed
----------
I hope she is getting back on her feet. Child actors and child singers are essentially abused children in this day and age. A lot of them don't make it well into adulthood for a variety of reasons including prior sexual abuse, drugs, too much pressure at a young age, and so on.

Redemption is possible and we should cheer those that try to climb out of the bucket of crabs that is Whoreywood.

Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 11:48 AM (6BfIu)

298 Now if the Texas House could just get on the ball and help eliminate property taxes I’d actually own my house.
Posted by: Stephen Price Blair

And where would the tax dollars come from?
Posted by: I used to have a different nic

Oil & gas.

Posted by: rickb223 at August 15, 2023 11:48 AM (iH7eX)

299 288 Those of you who think insurance will cover those irreplaceable items that get lost in a fire are delusional. Those people lost everything through no fault of their own. I tried to think about what I would grab if I had minutes to evacuate my little condo and their were so many precious things that would be lost, not money wise, but because of the memories they hold, that I figured I would grab my purse and run for my life. Did you see pictures of people in the ocean because it was the only escape?
How about a little compassion?
Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (t/2Uw)

Check out Twitter or a Reddit after a tornado in Oklahoma. They’re giddy with delight that conservatives died.

So yeah fuck compassion for leftists in Hawaii.

Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:48 AM (qftaL)

300 Well. THAT was an awkwardly timed sock.

Posted by: Brother Tim sez Max Headroom for President! at August 15, 2023 11:48 AM (OUMaO)

301 LOL, if I could possibly care less, I would!

Posted by: sock_rat_eez - these lying liars have been lying for decades at August 15, 2023 11:48 AM (vbuLV)

302 288 Those of you who think insurance will cover those irreplaceable items that get lost in a fire are delusional. Those people lost everything through no fault of their own. I tried to think about what I would grab if I had minutes to evacuate my little condo and their were so many precious things that would be lost, not money wise, but because of the memories they hold, that I figured I would grab my purse and run for my life. Did you see pictures of people in the ocean because it was the only escape?
How about a little compassion?
Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (t/2Uw)

Brava!

Absolutely. The fact that politics is turning us away from being compassionate to our fellow human beings is appalling.

May God comfort the suffering.

Posted by: Just Lily at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (RLLZj)

303 So photoshopped her body doesn't even look like it goes with her boobs or head. Pass!
Posted by: Elric Blade at August 15, 2023 11:45 AM

Harsh, but true. How about an all natural brunette on the beach?
https://tinyurl.com/573h2zmd

Her politics and body may shock you!

Posted by: Admiral Ackbar at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (JCZqz)

304 Have no fear, the federales will bail everybody out, until they can't.

Then the fun begins.

Posted by: Hairyback Guy at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (hqgX1)

305 Tight and toned, just my style

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo, food, water at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (xcxpd)

Have we met? What's you number?

Posted by: Lena Dunham at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (A3700)

306 Assuming Blue Cities will enforce said building codes in regards to these various poor misunderstood stoned out of their zombie mind 'sparks of divinity.'

Judging by what is happening in San Francisco and Los Angeles I doubt they would enforce the codes.

At least not until such a abattoir of a fire trap burns to the ground killing dozens or hundreds.

Posted by: Anna Puma at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (CyPqT)

307 Global Golf Post Writer Steve Eubanks Quits After Higher-ups "Went Ballistic" And Censored Interview With Christian, Pro-life Golfer Amy Olsen

-
Well, you've got to expect that if you're going to let any kind of riff raff onto the page of your magazine.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (FVME7)

308 Any guesses as to who will buy the blue cities on the cheap and run our country?

Posted by: Coki at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (20dZh)

309 @303 HA! This time I read the nick and didn't fall for it!

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (WkNQM)

310 I hope she is getting back on her feet. Child actors and child singers are essentially abused children in this day and age. A lot of them don't make it well into adulthood for a variety of reasons including prior sexual abuse, drugs, too much pressure at a young age, and so on.

Redemption is possible and we should cheer those that try to climb out of the bucket of crabs that is Whoreywood.
Posted by: whig

She had a netflix Christmas RomCom last year, it was fairly well received as I remember.

Posted by: BruceWayne at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (CIS44)

311

https://deadmalls.com/

Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at August 15, 2023 11:50 AM (63Dwl)

312 The fact that 18 million people think that force would be justified to restore Trump to the presidency is a bit scary, I admit.

-----------

18,000,001.
Posted by: ShainS

18,000,002.

Posted by: rickb223 at August 15, 2023 11:50 AM (iH7eX)

313 classic economics says to keep that cheap mortgage and invest the extra cash

This is an absolutely accurate depiction of what current "classic" economics advises, but the mind rebels at the notion that some here squeal like stuck pigs that liberal arts or philosophy are allowed to be taught, and then turn around and live a life governed by horse shit like that. Eternal thralldom to the gospel of Main Chance; you'll never get your nose above the ordure.

Posted by: Way, Way Downriver at August 15, 2023 11:50 AM (4PZHB)

314 Balloon loans for the win!!

Posted by: Financial SMOD at August 15, 2023 11:50 AM (ufFY8)

315 "Send MOAR money and tactical nukes ... but mostly tactical nukes!"

Tactical nukes and half a million American soldiers.

Posted by: Paul Massaro, Six Months From Now! at August 15, 2023 11:50 AM (2tUFv)

316 315 "Send MOAR money and tactical nukes ... but mostly tactical nukes!"

Tactical nukes and half a million American soldiers.
Posted by: Paul Massaro, Six Months From Now! at August 15, 2023 11:50 AM (2tUFv)

=======

"Nah, just the cash."
-Z-Man, it's his happening and it freaks him out

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, contemplating utopia with Peter Weir at August 15, 2023 11:51 AM (LvTSG)

317 285 I guess a person with more money than sense could buy up large sections of CR but the investment would be very long term and the possibility it could all go tits up is very high.
Posted by: AlaBAMA
---------------
Secular change in the market due to massive changes in demand for commercial properties in and around cities. Rental housing in a lot of areas is also overpriced due to government subsidies of the endless streams of refugees and their housing along with the welfare crowd.

None of it is sustainable.

Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 11:51 AM (6BfIu)

318 "How about a little compassion?"

The barbarians destroyed civilization, we have more important things to worry about.

Posted by: Next2Nothing at August 15, 2023 11:51 AM (tA1/w)

319 Except...if you have a reasonable interest rate you would be paying off the mortgage with inflated dollars, so classic economics says to keep that cheap mortgage and invest the extra cash to earn a higher return.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo

———

I’m locked in at 2.5% for another 30 years on $130K. My mortgage payment is 1/3 the local rent for a similar size rental. There is no way I’m going to pay it off early. I view it as a massive hedge against inflation at this point.

Posted by: MAGA_Ken at August 15, 2023 11:52 AM (2HWEq)

320 What's the best place for money right now given the crazy uncertainty?

Treasuries? CDs? Interest bearing accounts?

Posted by: AlaBAMA at August 15, 2023 11:52 AM (5xURv)

321 314 Balloon loans for the win!!

ballooning spiders > balloon loans

Posted by: anachronda at August 15, 2023 11:52 AM (oY6Yp)

322 Any guesses as to who will buy the blue cities on the cheap and run our country?
Posted by: Coki at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (20dZh)

The Japs! The Japs will own everything!

Posted by: The 1980's at August 15, 2023 11:52 AM (hqgX1)

323 "What's the best place for money right now given the crazy uncertainty? "

Ammo.

Posted by: Next2Nothing at August 15, 2023 11:52 AM (tA1/w)

324 It's happened before and it'll wind up on the (middle classes) taxpayers' backs, as always.

Posted by: L - Practice makes perfect. They know their enemy at August 15, 2023 11:53 AM (GshMh)

325 So how is Beijing's economy doing anyway?

Posted by: Anna Puma at August 15, 2023 11:53 AM (CyPqT)

326 1. Buy empty buildings in shit holes no one wants to live.

2. ?

3. Rule for a thousand years.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, contemplating utopia with Peter Weir at August 15, 2023 11:53 AM (LvTSG)

327 The one I kept went towards 'something else'.

Posted by: Eromero at August 15, 2023 11:38 AM (NxC5+)

What caliber?
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:40 AM

Please. Let's honor Eromero's subtlety, and just say that JMB has to eat, too.

Posted by: Duncanthrax at August 15, 2023 11:53 AM (a3Q+t)

328 She had a netflix Christmas RomCom last year, it was fairly well received as I remember.
Posted by: BruceWayne
--------
Good on her.

From the Daily Mail coverage, Brittney seems to be demonically possessed and is pretty scary looking. Devil Mouse has a lot of sin on their hands by their repeated allowance of child and drug abuse of their charges even during Walt's time. Family values my ass.

Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (6BfIu)

329 700$ of my money doesnt replace those things either.

Posted by: BruceWayne

Exactly my point. Saying they deserved what they got because thy're probably democrats is just nasty.

Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (t/2Uw)

330 LEAVE CBD ALONE!

Posted by: Speaking of memes at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (PiwSw)

331 And where would the tax dollars come from?

Sales taxes. General revenue (Texas has a lot of this.) Zero-based budgeting. Not spending money on leftist causes. It is doable. Link in nic to Texas Public Policy Foundation description of how it would work.

Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (EXyHK)

332 I expect a lot of chaos in the job market, too. Soon the Feds will require all employees and contractors back on-site. They could also have a mandate for any company doing business with the Federal government to have some percentage of employees onsite. They can do it they did it with COVID.

Some companies will remain remote due to this CRE stuff and then there will be turmoil.

Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (Jk9SN)

333 What's the best place for money right now given the crazy uncertainty?

Treasuries? CDs? Interest bearing accounts?
Posted by: AlaBAMA at August 15, 2023 11:52 AM (5xURv)
++++
Depends on what you're after. I'm pretty risk-averse, so I have a lot of Treasuries. If I have money that I would otherwise put in a savings account or a CD, I put it into Treasuries instead. It's a bit of a pain in the ass but the yields are higher. And if the US government goes bankrupt, none of the FDIC/NCUA insurance on bank instruments will mean dick anyway.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (WkNQM)

334 Lindsay Lohan just had a baby, and in the pictures she posted she looks surprisingly wholesome and pretty.
Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 15, 2023 11:35 AM (JTwsP)

Did she get clean? That would be great.

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (1Z8zZ)

335 308 Any guesses as to who will buy the blue cities on the cheap and run our country?

*whistles innocently*

Posted by: xi jinping at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (oY6Yp)

336 247
'Marion Police Chief Gideon Cody'

Who the hell does this guy think he is? POTUS?

Posted by: Dr.Claw at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (uFrU+)

337
324 It's happened before and it'll wind up on the (middle classes) taxpayers' backs, as always.
Posted by: L - Practice makes perfect. They know their enemy at August 15, 2023 11:53 AM (GshMh)

Probably this.

Time for a too big to fail bailout!

Posted by: AlaBAMA at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (5xURv)

338 China can buy all the banks and their worthless, foreclosed properties. Almost as if it was planned and designed that way.

With what? They're staring into the RE abyss in their own country.

Posted by: Archimedes at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (eOEVl)

339 302 288 Those of you who think insurance will cover those irreplaceable items that get lost in a fire are delusional. Those people lost everything through no fault of their own. I tried to think about what I would grab if I had minutes to evacuate my little condo and their were so many precious things that would be lost, not money wise, but because of the memories they hold, that I figured I would grab my purse and run for my life.
Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (t/2Uw)

Brava!

Absolutely. The fact that politics is turning us away from being compassionate to our fellow human beings is appalling.

Posted by: Just Lily at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM (RLLZj)
__________

I would add that insurance companies almost always try to fuck you anyway. Even putting aside the non-monetary value of keepsake items, if the repair costs are $50k, they will offer you $30k and then you have to fight with them over it. Most people lack the patience or resources to fight, so they take the low-ball amount. I went through this a few years ago after the fire on my roof deck.

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 15, 2023 11:55 AM (iFTx/)

340 Hopefully not the new boutique round called the .360 Buckhammer.

Anyone remember the .224 Valkyrie?

Posted by: Anna Puma at August 15, 2023 11:55 AM (CyPqT)

341 If the property owners can’t refinance the property, nor can they can’t sell it, they are left with one ugly option…surrender the property to the lender as a foreclosure.

The owners are still on the hook for the balance of the loan unless they file for bankruptcy.

Posted by: G'rump928(c) at August 15, 2023 11:55 AM (aD39U)

342 No conspiracy theories allowed!

Kevin Tober
@KevinTober94
The irony of watching Rachel Maddow and Hillary Clinton scold people for spreading conspiracy theories about stolen elections when they were the biggest Trump-Russian collusion hoaxers after the 2016 election.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:55 AM (FVME7)

343 Long-term.

"Secular" is the opposite of "cyclical." There any number of cyclical increases in interest rate over the past 40 years, but the overall trend - the secular trend - was downward. I don't know why that word is used, but it is.

Basically, "secular" means "big and slow trends with lots of power."

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:44 AM (WkNQM)
------------
Thanks, Mannix. Had never heard that term used in that context.

Like having read "disinflation" (and learning its idiotic definition) a day or two ago ...

Posted by: ShainS -- Misinflation, Disinflation, & Malinflation Researcher at August 15, 2023 11:55 AM (6VKyY)

344 Easy solution to all this: Federal government bailout.

This allows the losses to be absorbed by the taxpayer while the rich are able to gobble up property cheaply.

Posted by: SH (But Prefer Clark Griswold) at August 15, 2023 11:55 AM (sX1BW)

345 There's many more than 18 million.

Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at August 15, 2023 11:55 AM (BIG3/)

346 305 Tight and toned, just my style

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo, food, water at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (xcxpd)

Have we met? What's you number?
Posted by: Lena Dunham at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM

Wanna team up and fulfill his wildest fantasy?

Posted by: Cora Segal at August 15, 2023 11:56 AM (a3Q+t)

347 What's the best place for money right now given the crazy uncertainty?
Treasuries? CDs? Interest bearing accounts?
Posted by: AlaBAMA at August 15, 2023 11:52 AM (5xURv)

I stick mine in my mattress. Rick Roma wants me to buy 6 condos in Glenngarry Glen Ross but I am sitting tight.

Posted by: Ravadem Patel, Money In A Mattress at August 15, 2023 11:56 AM (hqgX1)

348 I view it as a massive hedge against inflation at this point.

Posted by: MAGA_Ken at August 15, 2023 11:52 AM (2HWEq)

2.5%! nice!

You win...the bank that holds your mortgage loses!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:56 AM (A3700)

349 What's the best place for money right now given the crazy uncertainty?

Gold. Silver. Folgers coffee can.

Posted by: rickb223 at August 15, 2023 11:56 AM (iH7eX)

350 Anyone remember the .224 Valkyrie?
Posted by: Anna Puma at August 15, 2023 11:55 AM (CyPqT)

I 'member. It almost lured me in back in my 'one of every caliber' phase. I grew out of it, thankfully.

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo, food, water at August 15, 2023 11:56 AM (xcxpd)

351 The head of the NATO Secretary General's office, Stian Jensen, said that Ukraine could get NATO membership in exchange for ceding part of the territory to the Russian Federation...

Pretty sure Russia doesn't want NATO next door. Not sure why they'd agree to this. I suppose the entire west could back Ukraine and they could launch a massive counter-offensive and ...

Posted by: I used to have a different nic at August 15, 2023 11:56 AM (1Z8zZ)

352 China can buy all the banks and their worthless, foreclosed properties. Almost as if it was planned and designed that way.

Imagine the ROI on that 10% for The Big Guy ...
Posted by: ShainS -- Chief 'Misinformation' Researcher at AoSHQ at August 15, 2023 11:41 AM (6VKyY)
++++
LOL. No. China is facing an economic catastrophe, driven in part by real estate. Chinese government finance depends on real estate, vast tracts of the economy depend on real estate, those huge infrastructure projects depend indirectly on real estate, Chinese industry that isn't geared toward export depends on real estate, etc.

I go into some of this later today. Stay tuned.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:56 AM (WkNQM)

353 349 2.5%! nice!

You win...the bank that holds your mortgage loses!
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 11:56 AM (A3700)

=======

We're looking at going from 3.5% to 6.75%, possibly in the next few weeks.

It's what happens when one of the Big Four banks decides to throw money at Dolley to convince us to move to Charlotte. Still pending the offer letter, though, so we shall see.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, contemplating utopia with Peter Weir at August 15, 2023 11:57 AM (LvTSG)

354 I finally closed out all my tech stocks so I'm sitting on cash at the moment with little idea of what to do besides 'something safe'.

So I'm thinking CDs or treasuries until an adult becomes President.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at August 15, 2023 11:57 AM (5xURv)

355 288
Absolutely. When we were in CA we kept a small closet of boxes that we would grab in an emergency evacuation. Watched too many videos of people grabbing their animals , computers and medications. Thank God we never had to. Fact is, TRex would have needed a UHaul for all of his items -- and you know how many UHauls are still in LA!

Posted by: Grateful at August 15, 2023 11:57 AM (IQ6Gq)

356
Check out Twitter or a Reddit after a tornado in Oklahoma. They’re giddy with delight that conservatives died.

So yeah fuck compassion for leftists in Hawaii.

Posted by: Montec

Yep, so you go ahead and act just like the people you despise. That's telling them!

Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:57 AM (t/2Uw)

357 I’ve cycling a pretty big chunk of change in 4 week T bills for a few months now. It’s more than savings and it keeps me from worrying that I should be investing it in stocks or something stupid.

Posted by: sniffybigtoe at August 15, 2023 11:58 AM (JTwsP)

358 Kevin Tober
@KevinTober94
Replying to @KevinTober94
Hillary Clinton: "I don't think Joe Biden gets credit enough for trying to model responsible leadership. Just getting up every day, doing the job. The legislative accomplishments that came out of his first year and a half were amazing..."

-
Amazing? Yeah, that's one word for it.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:58 AM (FVME7)

359 Aaaaaa......battoir

Posted by: Lou Costelloir at August 15, 2023 11:58 AM (w9Wax)

360 Absolutely. The fact that politics is turning us away from being compassionate to our fellow human beings is appalling.

May God comfort the suffering.
Posted by: Just Lily
--------
I don't know that so many people are turning on compassion but that most of Maui was not affected by the fire but are still getting $700 Biden Junta dollars--these people lost nothing. Compassion should be directed toward those that need it most not airdropped from a helicopter.

And in some cases, like building in hurricane and flood prone areas, one FEMA buyout is enough.

We should not subsidize repeated buyouts just so people can live on the coast which in many cases involves multimillion dollar showplaces. IF they can afford to build it in fragile areas, then they can afford to insure it.

Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 11:58 AM (6BfIu)

361 Off the top of my head, 10 out of twenty commercial properties in my little town are sitting vacant, including the biggest building in town, a bank. The bank is a very nice building, quite large, and beautifully landscaped. The only people I've seen since the for sale sign went up are the lawn guys. We have a few small towns around here that look like a ghost town when you drive through the downtown area.

Posted by: bill in arkansas, not gonna comply with nuttin, waiting for the 0300 knock on the door at August 15, 2023 11:58 AM (0EOe9)

362 Tight and toned, just my style

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo, food, water at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (xcxpd)

-----------

Mark likes his women like he likes his target shot groupings.

Posted by: ShainS -- Misinflation, Disinflation, & Malinflation Researcher at August 15, 2023 11:59 AM (6VKyY)

363 359 Kevin Tober
@KevinTober94
Replying to @KevinTober94
Hillary Clinton: "I don't think Joe Biden gets credit enough for trying to model responsible leadership. Just getting up every day, doing the job. The legislative accomplishments that came out of his first year and a half were amazing..."

-
Amazing? Yeah, that's one word for it.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 11:58 AM (FVME7)

_____________

Translation: she's angling for a spot in the 2024 election

Posted by: Elric Blade at August 15, 2023 11:59 AM (iFTx/)

364 363 Tight and toned, just my style

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo, food, water at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (xcxpd)
-----------
Mark likes his women like he likes his target shot groupings.
Posted by: ShainS -- Misinflation, Disinflation, & Malinflation Researcher at August 15, 2023 11:59 AM (6VKyY)

#Truth

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo, food, water at August 15, 2023 11:59 AM (xcxpd)

365 Hopefully not the new boutique round called the .360 Buckhammer.

Anyone remember the .224 Valkyrie?
Posted by: Anna Puma

I'm going to develop a 11.43826mm.

Because why not??

Posted by: rickb223 at August 15, 2023 11:59 AM (iH7eX)

366 IF they can afford to build it in fragile areas, then they can afford to insure it.
Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 11:58 AM (6BfIu)
++++
Nobody can, which is why until not too long ago, construction in such places was largely disposable. It can't be insured and it *will* be destroyed at some point (probably in your lifetime), so slap up a cheap structure and if it gets washed away, you just rebuild. Wooden houses on stilts on the Florida coast were the norm for a reason.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:59 AM (WkNQM)

367 Mark likes his women like he likes his target shot groupings.
Posted by: ShainS -- Misinflation, Disinflation, & Malinflation Researcher at August 15, 2023 11:59 AM

And 100 meters away?

Posted by: Gun Moron at August 15, 2023 12:00 PM (JCZqz)

368 We should not subsidize repeated buyouts just so people can live on the coast which in many cases involves multimillion dollar showplaces. IF they can afford to build it in fragile areas, then they can afford to insure it.

--------------------

I'd say this is true.

But the counter is the rich get bailed out - remember TARP - so why shouldn't the less rich get bailed out.

I don't necessarily agree, but when you constantly bailout the rich, expect the less rich to want their bailouts too.

Posted by: SH (But Prefer Clark Griswold) at August 15, 2023 12:00 PM (sX1BW)

369 The head of the NATO Secretary General's office, Stian Jensen, said that Ukraine could get NATO membership in exchange for ceding part of the territory to the Russian Federation...

Wait I heard that any plan that would result in Russia retaining any Ukrainian territory meant you were a Putin stooge!

I expect that the resolution does end up kind of looking like this, though, with some sort of UN protectorate force in there rather than NATO and the US paying the bills.

Posted by: blaster at August 15, 2023 12:00 PM (Jk9SN)

370 Hillary Clinton 2024 - Less senile than the Rutabaga in Chief.

Posted by: Anna Puma at August 15, 2023 12:00 PM (CyPqT)

371 We're looking at going from 3.5% to 6.75%, possibly in the next few weeks.

It's what happens when one of the Big Four banks decides to throw money at Dolley to convince us to move to Charlotte. Still pending the offer letter, though, so we shall see.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison
---------------
Best wishes on the move but make a sober judgment over whether the bank is likely to be cutting jobs in the near future.

Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 12:00 PM (6BfIu)

372 Mars is rotating faster and NASA can't really figure out what's causing it

-
Global warming. Duhhhhhh.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? at August 15, 2023 12:00 PM (FVME7)

373 I don't necessarily agree, but when you constantly bailout the rich, expect the less rich to want their bailouts too.
Posted by: SH (But Prefer Clark Griswold) at August 15, 2023 12:00 PM (sX1BW)
++++
Moral hazards make the sand trap look downright easy.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 12:00 PM (WkNQM)

374 Tight and toned, just my style

Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo, food, water at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (xcxpd)

-----------

Mark likes his women like he likes his target shot groupings.
Posted by: ShainS

All in one hole?

Posted by: rickb223 at August 15, 2023 12:00 PM (iH7eX)

375 May Biden can just wave ot away like he keeps trying to do with student loans.

Posted by: Bete at August 15, 2023 12:01 PM (BRhwL)

376 How about a little compassion?

Sorry. You have to keep in mind that for most of the day, most days, you're in the middle of a comedy show here. People don't necessarily mean what they say; it's a shit-flinging contest.

Just the goofy new realities of the anonymous posting funhouse we live in now. I don't see a way around it. Don't feel too badly.

Posted by: Way, Way Downriver at August 15, 2023 12:01 PM (4PZHB)

377 Do I feel for the folks who lost everything in the Maui fires? Yes.

Can I do a damn thing about it? No. I got enough problems of my own and nothing to spare. Even if they didn't hate me and everything I hold with.

Compassion's got nothing to do with it. Sucks for everyone these days. Take care of your own first and stop subsidizing those who would enslave you--or worse.

Posted by: Brother Tim sez Max Headroom for President! at August 15, 2023 12:01 PM (OUMaO)

378 NOOD TJM

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 12:01 PM (WkNQM)

379 Depends on what you're after. I'm pretty risk-averse, so I have a lot of Treasuries. If I have money that I would otherwise put in a savings account or a CD, I put it into Treasuries instead. It's a bit of a pain in the ass but the yields are higher. And if the US government goes bankrupt, none of the FDIC/NCUA insurance on bank instruments will mean dick anyway.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM

That's where we parked the $$$$ in the wife's TSP/401k. We figure if the Federal government defaults on that it's pretty much game over for us because all of our money comes directly from the fed. Navy retirement and social security.

Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at August 15, 2023 12:01 PM (QNSds)

380 Those of you who think insurance will cover those irreplaceable items that get lost in a fire are delusional. Those people lost everything through no fault of their own. I tried to think about what I would grab if I had minutes to evacuate my little condo and their were so many precious things that would be lost, not money wise, but because of the memories they hold, that I figured I would grab my purse and run for my life. Did you see pictures of people in the ocean because it was the only escape?
How about a little compassion?

Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 11:46 AM (t/2Uw)

-------------

Our town is surrounded on three sides by national forestland and have historically had threatening wildfires.

It's advisable to have a "go back" for things you really need ASAP in an immediate evacuation. Also advisable: a list of additional items (like on your fridge) to load, if you have additional time like say 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, etc.

Posted by: ShainS -- Misinflation, Disinflation, & Malinflation Researcher at August 15, 2023 12:02 PM (6VKyY)

381 Yesterday I closed my accounts with Chase Bank. Even though I am 29, I have been with them 29 years since I moved to this area.

The final straw was their new 'policy' of not redeeming paper Series EE bonds which had fully matured. (Again, I am only 29, but these bonds were somehow 30 years old.) I had been redeeming them sporadically for the past year, face value $100. When I walked in to redeem another, they said "Nope."

These fuckers have over one TRILLION dollars in customer deposits, I have been with them for 29 years, and they can't risk the $207.36, in the zero percent chance that I am trying to defraud them? They can fuck themselves.

I feel better cutting ties. Plus, I hope they take it up the ass with their CRE deals.

Posted by: Deplorable Ian Galt at August 15, 2023 12:02 PM (ufFY8)

382 Nood... not Ace

Posted by: Martini Farmer at August 15, 2023 12:02 PM (Q4IgG)

383 I'd say this is true.

But the counter is the rich get bailed out - remember TARP - so why shouldn't the less rich get bailed out.

I don't necessarily agree, but when you constantly bailout the rich, expect the less rich to want their bailouts too.
Posted by: SH
--------
Oh, I totally understand that as well as when it comes to budget and service cuts. Our entire system of government has gotten warped to the extent that the managerial class believes themselves to be above and not a part of the nation. That is a problem when they are outnumbered 4:1 at least.

Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 12:02 PM (6BfIu)

384 @303 HA! This time I read the nick and didn't fall for it!
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:49 AM

Yep, me too! Whew.

Posted by: Minnfidel at August 15, 2023 12:02 PM (wQvIv)

385 @256 We've seen the arms of the 30 million...as well as the weak chests, mental health issues, and general lack of skills. I'd take those 2-1 odds any day.

Hell yeah! We'd just show up, shoot twice and go back home.

Posted by: The Swiss, where every home has a machine gun at August 15, 2023 12:03 PM (cCxiu)

386 LEAVE CBD ALONE!
Posted by: Speaking of memes at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM

Noone would dare troll CBD.

Posted by: Duncanthrax at August 15, 2023 12:03 PM (a3Q+t)

387 Still pending the offer letter, though, so we shall see.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, contemplating utopia with Peter Weir at August 15, 2023 11:57 AM (LvTSG)

Negotiate a below-market mortgage.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 12:03 PM (A3700)

388 288
'Did you see pictures of people in the ocean because it was the only escape?'

Weren't those all democrats?

Posted by: Dr.Claw at August 15, 2023 12:03 PM (uFrU+)

389 369 This could have happened before billions of dollars were spent and thousands and thousands of lives lost. It is the fault of the UK and the US that this plan was not adopted and negotiations begun immediately. it sickens me to think that this country is just as responsible as the Russians for this war taking place.

Posted by: sharon(willow's apprentice) at August 15, 2023 12:04 PM (t/2Uw)

390 I finally closed out all my tech stocks so I'm sitting on cash at the moment with little idea of what to do besides 'something safe'.

So I'm thinking CDs or treasuries until an adult becomes President.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at August 15, 2023 11:57 AM (5xURv)

I am looking at opening an account here to park some unused cash.

https://bityl.co/KUH1

Posted by: G'rump928(c) at August 15, 2023 12:04 PM (aD39U)

391 @342

>>The irony of watching Rachel Maddow and Hillary Clinton scold people for spreading conspiracy theories about stolen elections when they were the biggest Trump-Russian collusion hoaxers after the 2016 election.

There is no irony, they know they are hypocrites, they don't give a f**k they are hypocrites, and they will go on being hypocrites until there is a boot stomping on all of their enemies faces.

Posted by: Thomas Bender at August 15, 2023 12:05 PM (up/3i)

392 Mark likes his women like he likes his target shot groupings.

No reason this one can't go on all day.
I'll enter with
A little ragged around the edges, firmly clipped down at six points, and with a used backer sheet on the back side.

Depending on your scope, that should plug in.

Posted by: Way, Way Downriver at August 15, 2023 12:05 PM (4PZHB)

393 We'll take these properties off your hands.

Posted by: CCP at August 15, 2023 12:05 PM (rBcAx)

394 387 Still pending the offer letter, though, so we shall see.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, contemplating utopia with Peter Weir at August 15, 2023 11:57 AM (LvTSG)

Negotiate a below-market mortgage.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at August 15, 2023 12:03 PM (A3700)

========

It's apparently part of the employment package at this level. We need to see the offer, though, for specifics.

We did find the perfect house this weekend, though. It'd almost be a 1:1 trade in terms of dollar value of the houses, too. We shall see.

Posted by: TheJamesMadison, contemplating utopia with Peter Weir at August 15, 2023 12:05 PM (LvTSG)

395 Noody

Posted by: Not trying to be mean but... at August 15, 2023 12:08 PM (pHPwR)

396 333 What's the best place for money right now given the crazy uncertainty?

Treasuries? CDs? Interest bearing accounts?
Posted by: AlaBAMA at August 15, 2023 11:52 AM (5xURv)
++++
Depends on what you're after. I'm pretty risk-averse, so I have a lot of Treasuries. If I have money that I would otherwise put in a savings account or a CD, I put it into Treasuries instead. It's a bit of a pain in the ass but the yields are higher. And if the US government goes bankrupt, none of the FDIC/NCUA insurance on bank instruments will mean dick anyway.
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:54 AM (WkNQM)
--------

I had Vanguard managed funds. Funny thing, the market was up but my fund was down. I moved to Treasuries.

Musk is against index funds but gives a four point protocol on buying individual stocks.

Posted by: Braenyard at August 15, 2023 12:12 PM (AbYHm)

397 I don't know that so many people are turning on compassion but that most of Maui was not affected by the fire but are still getting $700 Biden Junta dollars--these people lost nothing. Compassion should be directed toward those that need it most not airdropped from a helicopter.

And in some cases, like building in hurricane and flood prone areas, one FEMA buyout is enough.

We should not subsidize repeated buyouts just so people can live on the coast which in many cases involves multimillion dollar showplaces. IF they can afford to build it in fragile areas, then they can afford to insure it.
Posted by: whig at August 15, 2023 11:58 AM (6BfIu)

By compassion, I definitely don't mean government handouts.

The fact that everyone on the island gets $700 just because they live there is a travesty. The amount is a slap in the face to people who have lost everything and a tremendous waste to everyone else.

That is why government needs to get out of the "compassion" biz. They should be on the hook for roads, post offices,etc. and leave the rest to charities.

Posted by: Just Lily at August 15, 2023 12:12 PM (RLLZj)

398 Weren't those all democrats?
Know who'd have something to say about that?
Pliny, and Suetonius. "Fortune favors the brave."

FWIW, the population of Pompeii was about 11,000.
West Maui was above 14,000 up until last week.

Posted by: Way, Way Downriver at August 15, 2023 12:14 PM (4PZHB)

399
Might want to spend a few minutes examining the strength of the bank. Sometimes openings occur when the smart people see the writing on the wall and bail.

Posted by: Divide by Zero at August 15, 2023 12:18 PM (enJYY)

400 That is why government needs to get out of the "compassion" biz. They should be on the hook for roads, post offices,etc. and leave the rest to charities.
Posted by: Just Lily at August 15, 2023 12:12 PM (RLLZj)
++++
*People* can have compassion. Institutions cannot. There is "compassionate" corporation or government or even church. The term does not apply to an institution, and cannot be made to apply.

Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 12:19 PM (WkNQM)

401
I'm wondering how so many of them operate without, you know, profits but still they do for at least a few years. Higher interest rates will probably shorten that cycle.
Posted by: Ripley at August 15, 2023 11:20 AM (KrJTL)

The vast majority of those tech firms (the ones without any actual tech, mostly social media) are not designed to operate profitably. They're designed to hoover up as much investor capital as possible, spend it on a cool place to work with nice salaries for 3-5 years, and then to dissolve when the cash in the bank runs out.

Then the top execs do another "tech start-up", and repeat. Do three cycles and that's most of a person's professional life, funded by idiot investors with more cash than sense (or investors who need a good sized loss as a tax write-off).

The ones who don't participate in the next iteration either have grifted enough cash so that they can live comfortably for the rest of their lives or they just use the "experience" from the first "tech start-up" to burnish their resume for a good-paying job in a company that actually PRODUCES something.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at August 15, 2023 12:21 PM (n+4am)

402 Gee, it's almost like shutting down the country for a year over the flu was a bad idea. Add this to Comrade Faouchi's sentence.

Posted by: Zippyslug at August 15, 2023 12:39 PM (/jFSs)

403 >>>I’m trying not to write as many stories as I had been predicting “Doom!”

I would advise continuing to tell it like it is, including doom, while it's still allowed, because I fear that soon the truth will be throttled. That's what this regime does.

Posted by: Miley, okravangelist at August 15, 2023 12:44 PM (Mzdiz)

404 15 minute cities. Where you have no choice. There will be 1 store in the 15 mins. One school. One doctor. One of everything. And if you don’t like it? Tough shit. You’re stuck.

Might as well call them monopoly cities.
Posted by: Montec at August 15, 2023 11:18 AM (qftaL)

I wouldn't fear those. These sorts of not-what-people-actually-want towns have been a fad for generations as planners get nostalgia for their college campuses.

They don't work and have never worked and these sorts aren't going to be able to make them work.

Posted by: Oldcat at August 15, 2023 01:17 PM (eoQWY)

405 LOL. No. China is facing an economic catastrophe, driven in part by real estate. Chinese government finance depends on real estate, vast tracts of the economy depend on real estate, those huge infrastructure projects depend indirectly on real estate, Chinese industry that isn't geared toward export depends on real estate, etc.

I go into some of this later today. Stay tuned.
Posted by: Joe Mannix (Not a cop!) at August 15, 2023 11:56 AM (WkNQM)

Here's another problem with China. Real estate demand has been driven by it being the way for elderly to fund retirement. The government provides little or nothing, and Chinese haven't been having enough kids due to the One Child policy and the move to urban living. When the real estate bubble pops and a good portion of the population has no income or has to care for a gaggle of elderly relatives things will be messy.

Posted by: Oldcat at August 15, 2023 01:26 PM (eoQWY)

406 The only way out is the side door of conversion from office to multi-family. But you can't get a new CRE loan to do it, and zoning is an issue. Some intelligent cities are trying to subsidize these conversions and are rubber stamping zoning changes, but I doubt it will be enough to avoid the train barreling down the tracks.

Posted by: Milquetoast Mortgage-Paying Neighbor in Flyover Country at August 15, 2023 03:40 PM (5C4od)

407 Maybe all those cheap ass motels will be popular again once Hilton and Marriot flounder.

Posted by: GWB at August 15, 2023 05:55 PM (83DAm)

408 I'm having the same problem, trying to sell my hotels on Boardwalk and Park Place. If things get bad enough, I'll have to rent one of those tenement apartments on Baltic Avenue.

Posted by: clams on the half shell and roller skates, roller skates at August 15, 2023 08:23 PM (kvDvI)

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