Romney Begins Wisconsin Ad Campaign

@conartcritic Whatever you are using, please sell me some.
— Ben(@BenK84) September 9, 2012

When the Badger state comes in red, you can all have what I'm having:

Wisconsin is a big target. It has been the whole damn time. All the groaning and eeyoring by folks over it's absence in the first release was weak-kneed silliness, as much as the fretting over "120% turnout in Madison" was for the recall. Team Romney is going to attack a vastly larger map than what McCain was desperately trying to ~~win~~ avoid embarrassment and hold in 08. Enjoy that bounce from the convention while you can, President Obama. The ads and GOTV rollout begins now, and no amount of scale-thumbing by Purely Partisan Polling will be able to deflect a 9-figure onslaught.

Oh, and for the record: I don't give a damn what an over-glorified ex-Kos now-NYT hack who got direct polling info from his beloved ChicagoJesus' campaign in 08 has to say. Cook, Rothenberg and Sabato earn my respect by staying clean of that. He had no problem jumping in and letting his bias show. Keep this in mind when he starts getting moist and excited over a RAND internet user poll (while ignoring all other "internet" polls that show results he doesn't like, or state polls he doesn't like, or ...)

Even I can't acquire the shit this guy is on.

Posted by: CAC at 11:43 PM

Comments

(Jump to bottom of comments)

1 Gerg says Wisconsin is lost. Romney is wasting his money.

Posted by: Cicero at September 09, 2012 12:17 AM (Jl3/t)

2 I've been saying the last two days something was coming.

There was no way R&R were not going to run ads in WI and PA.

But, there will be more.

There's a reason the JEF looks, talks and acts scared. And Romney know why too.

Posted by: RoyalOil at September 09, 2012 12:21 AM (imtbm)

3 Badger them to death with ads Romney!

Posted by: gmannyc at September 09, 2012 12:24 AM (S3Y6N)

4 its on like donkey kong.This better be war, only doing everything possible to win. Anything else we are soooo fucked if scoamf wins.

Posted by: submariner at September 09, 2012 12:24 AM (kMhns)

5 Hope Romney has this figured out. He's playing the game pretty damned well this time. In my judgment, this is the last chance to bring us back from the brink. If our country intentionally chooses to continue on its current path, then I have a beef not only with politicians, but also with my neighbors. Once we have lost the social glue of mutual trust, this movie has a really unpleasant ending.

Posted by: ObjectionSustained at September 09, 2012 12:27 AM (nm6eP)

6 Greg still stinks.

Posted by: Jmel at September 09, 2012 12:27 AM (c+D8V)

7 Wow, it must be true if was on Politico.

Posted by: gmannyc at September 09, 2012 12:27 AM (S3Y6N)

8 Something is up. Jim VanDeHei (yet another MSM tool) has some drivel up about how "insiders' in the Romney campaign are worried about Ohio, and how Obama is more successful at "microtargeting" than Romney. Here's some Q's, MSM. (1) Why wasn't there enough money to pay for the convention? (2) Why is Romney now targeting WI and likely PA? Here's some bad news slipped into the Politco article. Apparently, most of the undecideds are white men who voted for Obama last time, and Obama is mcirotargeting veterans? Veterans? Who would vote for Obama? Right. Finally I agree with Ace on 538. I forgot this was the moron who gave us PECOTA--that explains a lot. WHy was he accurate in 2008--because O shared internal polls with him! Totally discount him, just like PECOTA predicted a .250 average for Derek Jeter this year. Tool.

Posted by: Interested Party at September 09, 2012 12:28 AM (RE+1w)

9
I amstarting to think.....no FEEL! a landslide!

What say thee?

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 12:28 AM (Xg5Tf)

10 I'm part of the reality based community, and I honestly believe Romney/Ryan carries Wisconsin.

They may be even able to cobble enough smaller states like Iowa and Colorado to where they won't need Ohio.

If they win Wisconsin, Virginia, and Florida (practically in the bag) they've won the White House.

Posted by: Jeepers at September 09, 2012 12:29 AM (XDRsa)

11 Greg
Suck my cock, Obama boy
Worthless little fuck

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at September 09, 2012 12:29 AM (kNYXY)

12
Up here in Canada, in the dark days before our conservative government took power, we all fretted about the polling.
Then after the election, the leftists were left scratching their heads wondering what f##k happended.
It happened again when a conservative became the mayor of lefty Toronto.
The academic and media milieu says that dems deserve to be either in power, or close to it. Polls won't show a conservative kicking ass(see Scott Walker and Ronald Reagan), they just won't. But all objective indicators - which are the most reliable ones in the passionate winds of politics - say this is going to be a Romney landslide.

Posted by: biff at September 09, 2012 12:29 AM (9qOrR)

13 If you are talking about the Krazy Kos Kid that got himself a gig at the NYT, that hack is a dipshit. Whatever poll gives Bambi a lead gets weighted more than one that gives Romney a lead. Funny thing, he changes from state to state which one gets weighted more. In one state RAS gets weighted less if Romney is ahead, but in another state gets weighted more if Bambi is ahead. He really thinks his "formula" actually works and is accurate.

Posted by: MrCaniac at September 09, 2012 12:30 AM (1grxW)

14 hey gargling cock sucking greg, u should know politico is part of the SCOAMF propaganda machine, believe that shit rag at your peril douche bag

Posted by: submariner at September 09, 2012 12:31 AM (kMhns)

15 Wisconsin goes Red this year. Wiscosinites will rally behind their favorite cheesehead and diehard Packers fan. Period.

I predict Obama will spend zero money in Wisconsin trying to defend it.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 09, 2012 12:32 AM (UTq/I)

16 Again, PECOTA predicted a .250 average for Derek Jeter this year, who is hitting .325 currently. Another great idea from this 538 boob.

Posted by: Interested Party at September 09, 2012 12:33 AM (RE+1w)

17 Posted by: Greg at September 09, 2012 12:24 AM (TN0zB)

I love Politico. Especially when they let me play the "anonymous Romney campaign sources" role. hee hee hee

Posted by: David AxelTurd at September 09, 2012 12:34 AM (soZKf)

18 Nice bitchslapping of Nate Silver, my brother.

Posted by: Andy at September 09, 2012 12:36 AM (OZPoa)

19 As I recall (and please correct me if I am wrong, CAC) he did not do well predicting 2010 results.

My impression is that Silver's prediction are self-correcting. In other words, his model uses narrower and narrower poll ranges as he gets closer to election day. Of course he will be more accurate the day before the election! His current predictions are simply rubbish.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 09, 2012 12:37 AM (UTq/I)

20 Pravda Politico? Nyet!

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 12:38 AM (xD2kY)

21 Just call me Mr. Anonymous Romney Insider Source:

"Yeah, it looks bleak here inside Romney HQ. We're all really worried. It's not IF we are going to lose... it's how badly. It's all over I tell you. WE ARE DOOMED!!!!"

Posted by: David AxelTurd at September 09, 2012 12:39 AM (soZKf)

22 >> Something is up. Jim VanDeHei (yet another MSM tool) has some drivel up
about how "insiders' in the Romney campaign are worried about Ohio

Pay no attention to "unnamed campaign sources" at lefty sites.

The Romney campaign don't leak to anyone but Jen Rubin.

Posted by: Andy at September 09, 2012 12:39 AM (OZPoa)

23
I'm going for scotch and a fine cigar....not, jusscotch. I am all in on the Obummer fail..White/Blackman speak with commie tongue....and all that stuff!

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 12:40 AM (Xg5Tf)

24 #19
He did AWFUL until the very last few weeks, when he probably (because I can't say for sure) just "tweaked" his model to reflect what Sabato, Rothenberg, Cook and RCP were finding.

He waited forever to call Wisconsin for Walker, after Sabato, RCP, AOSHQDD, several third-rate lefty prognosticators and anyone with a brain did.

Yet...he is a genius. It is the same phenomenon with the PPP polls. Absolutely amazing anyone outside of the left celebrates/slits their wrists over their results.

Posted by: CAC at September 09, 2012 12:41 AM (9QEUr)

25 17 me tooo, but they really love me oxoxo

Posted by: SCoaMF at September 09, 2012 12:41 AM (kMhns)

26 The Romney campaign don't leak to anyone but Jen Rubin.

I thought it was Jen that le.....

Posted by: BCochran1981 at September 09, 2012 12:41 AM (GEICT)

27 Landslide. Yes.. there are many many idiots in America.. but a majority voting for 4 more years of this crap.. no way.

Romney will win Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Florida and Iowa....longshot.... he prolly wins Michigan too
PA.. no.. but make the SCOAMF go broke defending it.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at September 09, 2012 12:42 AM (DGIjM)

28 Besides getting direct polling from Obama, whenever Nate Silver starts discussing his modeling he seems a little reminiscent of the quant guys in the financial industry pre-crash who couldn't quite grasp the concept of "statistically significant sample" and why that's kind of important for any predictions they're making.

Yes, Nate, it's awesome that Obama's been polling well in swing states vs. his national numbers...Who's been spending money in swing states? Obama. Who hasn't and has been holding his money in reserve until after the conventions? Romney. So why do those numbers mean anything?

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 12:44 AM (/D7/G)

29 'Sconnie loves beer, bratwurst, the Pack, Scott Walker, and Paul Ryan. If I were a bongo-banging blue-fister I'd be pissed at the complete waste of money that was the recall attempt. I'd not wish to waste even more.
Then again, I'm a rational human being, and can only speculate as to what the commies believe.
Hey commie fuckheads... if you wish to pour another shit-ton of money into losing another election in the Land of Cheese and Beer, have at 'er.

Posted by: the botnet at September 09, 2012 12:44 AM (6PDiu)

30
I want to see a Romney landslide as much for what it will do down ticket as well as winning the Presidency.

We need a commanding majority everywhere, and seeing the Dems reduced to sniveling impotency would be tremendous. If they are denied the role of spoiler then the business if repairing the damage done is made much easier.

Posted by: irongrampa at September 09, 2012 12:45 AM (SAMxH)

31 Don't forget the Green party is on the ballot in 38 states, and boy are they pissed at Obama. The evil Koch brothers should fund the shit out of a targeted Green ad campaign. It could take enough votes in close states to give them to Romney

Posted by: Ombudsman at September 09, 2012 12:45 AM (zXLtf)

32 Yeah that's right. Barry's crappy Convention speech and Clinton's factually-challenge "Hey Barry's doing his best, so give him a break" speech really turned the tide for us. It's all over man. Don't even bother to vote. Oh and, Romney insiders tell me it's all over as well. So tell Romney he doesn't need to spend any of that mountain of cash on ads. There's no point. You can trust me on this. Hey, would I ... er uh.... the media lie?

Posted by: David AxelTurd at September 09, 2012 12:47 AM (soZKf)

33 Oh Good Lord, that douche was in Journolist.

There is no reason to believe anything he says at anytime.

Libtards still hold out hope for a win or to keep it close enough so Obama can cheat(see Al Franken).

He will adjust his "models" just before the election to maintain credibility.

Posted by: naturalfake at September 09, 2012 12:48 AM (G9qZk)

34 This is the same ad that is playing in CO........except we only get 200,000 more jobs.

Saw 2016 again tonight (friends wanted to go). Theater was still halfful and it still scared the f**k out of me.

Posted by: westminsterdogshow at September 09, 2012 12:49 AM (7TwHV)

35
Our feed in Delaware is exclusively from PA. Wasn't watching TV last week, but will keep an eye peeled for Romney ads in days to come.

Not much in the way of yard signs and/or bumper stickers for either side here. The state's primary is on Tuesday, so we'll see what develops in the fierce battle for DE's three electoral votes.

I kid, of course, and that is why I'm signing on to help Romney across the state line in PA.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at September 09, 2012 12:50 AM (2x+V2)

36 Thanks, CAC. And a big thanks for all you do to keep us numbers geeks sane. It is really hard to go on day after day watching the lefty polls, all while knowing in your heart of hearts that they just don't reflect reality.

My current theory is that Romney is going for:

FL,NC, VA, WI, IA. and either CO or MI for the win. He doesn't need OH or PA, which I believe he loses both anyway.

If he wins NH, he can trade CO for NV.

But it's gonna be really close.. unless we can get the evangelicals fired up. If we can bring every evangelical out to vote, we have those states above. I have read estimates of up to 20 Million stayed home.

We need to get every demographical group out..

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 09, 2012 12:50 AM (UTq/I)

37 I don't think people like this guy find it safe to start putting out polls which might reflect that Romney and Ryan have alead. Chicago-style kick-ass politics, and all.

Posted by: Theresa is 4 Romney/Ryan at September 09, 2012 12:50 AM (6zmHV)

38
True! The swing states are the most! RR will crush the O with the bank flooding the needed stops with the TRUE message! The "O" will have nothing to say since he be so "O" broke already....even the unions are already pulling in the mojo...they wants to keeps their MONEYS!!!!
OH! yer next me bitches!!!!!

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 12:51 AM (Xg5Tf)

39 27 Landslide. Yes.. there are many many idiots in America.. but a majority voting for 4 more years of this crap.. no way.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at September 09, 2012 12:42 AM (DGIjM)

It's hard to see how a majority are going to vote for Obama considering the current state of the economy and the country under his "leadership." I think the only reason he won't get beaten in the election by as much as he should is that the Democrats currently have a built-in floor of 45% of the electorate due to their dominance of the black and hispanic voter blocs, especially with Obama as the candidate. I don't see a landslide but I'd guess that Romney wins the popular vote and Electoral College by a margin similar to Bush's in 2004.

Posted by: Slappy at September 09, 2012 12:51 AM (LTbLf)

40 #35
Look, it is time to give this farce up.

There is no such thing as Delaware.

Posted by: CAC at September 09, 2012 12:51 AM (9QEUr)

41 Nate Silver is an idiot. I remember him in 2008. His numbers were terrible until the last two weeks. Everyone was telling him why his numbers were wrong and he wouldn't listen. Then in the last two weeks, he started changing his numbers. In 2010, he was way off. This time, he's going with his gut. Seriously, he refuses to believe that Michigan is trending toward Romney and refuses to include any polls he doesn't like. And his % of winning are nuts. If Obama is up 1%, then he has Obama has 80% chance of winning. But if Romney is up by 5 points, then he has 60% chance of winning (that's Obama still better chance of winning BTW).

The guy is a hack.

Posted by: MrX at September 09, 2012 12:51 AM (ZsAO3)

42 This just in, Politico is reporting:

"Anonymous Romney insiders are indicting that Romney is contemplating quiting the campaign and donating all of his campaign cash to Obama. Romney was reportedly overwhelmed with the 50 point swing in the polls in Obama's favor and he now believes that Obama will easily win all 57 states"

So you see, it's all over.

Hey, if you don't want to believe Politico, then just tune into NBC tomorrow. They'll tell ya too!

Posted by: David AxelTurd at September 09, 2012 12:56 AM (soZKf)

43 Heh. Somebody's pretty damn quick on the draw tonight! Good on ya, whomever you are.

Posted by: Theresa is 4 Romney/Ryan at September 09, 2012 12:56 AM (6zmHV)

44 From Politico tonight�read it and weep�

�The Romney campaign, while pleasantly surprised by Obama�s lackluster prime-time performance, said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers � most glaringly in Ohio � are working in the president�s favor.

�Their map has many more routes to victory,� said a top Republican official. Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama�s favor now, with a high single-digit edge, based on their internal tracking numbers of conservative groups.�

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html#ixzz25wTIehU8

Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 12:57 AM (Jk+oU)

45 Delaware is a state of mind? That explains Biden. No mind, no state.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 12:59 AM (xD2kY)

46 44
From Politico tonight�read it and weep�

Read it and weep? Hell, I wrote it!

Damn fine reverse psychology if I do say so myself.

And I do.

Posted by: David AxelTurd at September 09, 2012 01:00 AM (soZKf)

47 Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 12:57 AM (Jk+oU)

Get out of my glory hole!!!!!!

Posted by: Gerg at September 09, 2012 01:01 AM (1grxW)

48 ATTESHUM PEOPLE OF TEH UNITED STARES OF AMERICA!! ! !!! !!!! ! !

LANDSLIDE WARNING FOR NOVEMBER ! ! !!!!! !

Posted by: Frankie teh Earthquake Warning Guy at September 09, 2012 01:02 AM (3mD0O)

49 and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers � most glaringly in Ohio � are working in the president�s favor.

Huh, what could possibly be causing that?

Oh yeah...

It's awesome that Obama's been polling well in swing states vs. his national numbers...Who's been spending money in swing states? Obama. Who hasn't and has been holding his money in reserve until after the conventions? Romney. So why do those numbers mean anything?

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:02 AM (/D7/G)

50 Next article in Politico - Gerg and Toldyablow's matching glory hole tats...

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 01:02 AM (xD2kY)

51 The MSM will be apoplectic when Romney wins, because it will be be them (the MSM) on trial.

Posted by: Craig Poe at September 09, 2012 01:02 AM (BVkEs)

52 I have seen a bunch of Romney ads here in WI. I also spent my afternoon working the phones at Romney HQ - in Milwakee county. Lots of people stopped in to buy Romney lawn signs. And we ran out of Romney bumper stickers (or rather we ran out of R/R stickers. People in Wisconsin want BOTH names on them.) Did I mention this is Milwaukee county?
I sent out absentee ballots to elderly Republicans in rural counties today. I also came across more than a few Romney voters who prefer to vote on election day, but assured me they will be voting GOP. I left feeling very good about our chances in WI.

Posted by: Donna V. at September 09, 2012 01:02 AM (/6swF)

53
People Please!!!!

Obama.....2012?......You should just shoot yourselves in the head with a large caliber handgun.....it would be at least as productive.....serious! And a total boon to Darwin!

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 01:03 AM (Xg5Tf)

54
Then in the last two weeks, he started changing his numbers.

Which is the dead giveaway that he hasn't any model or system to speak of.

I have seen private sector forecasts of business activity across several economic sectors that called out the present stall as far back as six months ago and I grant them credence because I understand the basis of how their indicators were chosen as well as the modeling methods they use.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at September 09, 2012 01:03 AM (J7sV0)

55 And I do mean "be be".

Posted by: Craig Poe at September 09, 2012 01:04 AM (BVkEs)

56 So, Greg's posts disappeared in this thread only to have toldyaso start re-posting them. Hmmmm.

I like how the story Greg/toldyaso posted claims that Obama has "a high single-digit edge" in Ohio when he only won it by 4.5% in 2008. Puh-lease.

Posted by: Slappy at September 09, 2012 01:04 AM (LTbLf)

57 this whole "don't worry, the tide will turn any day now" is not exactly comforting

hope you're right, but I'll believe it when I see it

Posted by: Jose at September 09, 2012 01:06 AM (srIqv)

58 Romney knows how to run a business and get things done. Obama knows how to talk about himself. My money (literally) is on the guy who has accomplished things. I hope Obama continues to under-estimate Romney and his campaign skills.

Posted by: LASue at September 09, 2012 01:06 AM (wAhNv)

59 I like how the story Greg/toldyaso posted claims that Obama has "a high single-digit edge" in Ohio when he only won it by 4.5% in 2008. Puh-lease.

Posted by: Slappy at September 09, 2012 01:04 AM (LTbLf)

Nonsense, I'm confident Obama's going to sweep in the same state that Rob Portman won by 18 points.

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:08 AM (/D7/G)

60
you know
all the polls show obama with a tie or lead...

guess i'm going have to be a democrat
oh wait........

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life) at September 09, 2012 01:08 AM (Shrag)

61 Thanks Donna V. for the update from the trenches. As I said, I believe Obama will write off Wisconsin..

Oh.. and Milwaukee County??? Yeee ha!

I'm going up to Door Cty in a couple weeks.. I figure I will try to feel out the locals in Sturgeon Bay and northwards..

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 09, 2012 01:08 AM (UTq/I)

62 44 tard ya sow,

I get up to take a dump and there you are a stray piece of crap. You're taking Ohio?

Cool story 'tard.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:09 AM (LRFds)

63
60
You bet! You wait!

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 01:09 AM (Xg5Tf)

64 "this whole "don't worry, the tide will turn any day now" is not exactly comforting

hope you're right, but I'll believe it when I see it"

Blind faith is all this site offers. And blind faith in 2012 will get you what it got you in 08...nothing.

Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 01:09 AM (Jk+oU)

65
Obama/Biden 2012: Because Someone, Somewhere Has More Stuff Than You Do - And That's Just Not Fair!

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at September 09, 2012 01:09 AM (J7sV0)

66 52
I have seen a bunch of Romney ads here in WI. I also spent my afternoon
working the phones at Romney HQ - in Milwakee county. Lots of people
stopped in to buy Romney lawn signs. And we ran out of Romney bumper
stickers (or rather we ran out of R/R stickers. People in Wisconsin want
BOTH names on them.) Did I mention this is Milwaukee county?

I sent out absentee ballots to elderly Republicans in rural counties
today. I also came across more than a few Romney voters who prefer to
vote on election day, but assured me they will be voting GOP. I left
feeling very good about our chances in WI.

Posted by: Donna V. at September 09, 2012 01:02 AM (/6swF)

You have yard signs up in Wisc? Here in Roanoke, VA they run out of yard signs and bumper stickers all the time. I have been there 3 times and they have no yard signs for RR, and the only bumper stickers they had left were "Wahoos for Romney-Ryan". While that works in my family, this area is about 75% Va Tech, and they ran out of those about 2 hours after they arrived in the office. The yard sign battle isn't even close, RR leads big.

Posted by: MrCaniac at September 09, 2012 01:10 AM (1grxW)

67 Politico 2010:

Axelrod: Dems will �have good result� in 2010 midterms

http://tinyurl.com/8gm79k7

Posted by: David AxelTurd at September 09, 2012 01:10 AM (soZKf)

68
60 i see some newish names here so let me give the stupidity before the usual "you suck cock...get your shinebox...make me a sammich"

i actually am a dem...in fact i was running for a state office here (until my wife decided to move us to waikiki)
and............i'm more conservative than almost all you RINO mofos

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life) at September 09, 2012 01:11 AM (Shrag)

69
62

Sup a friggin.....Sup?

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 01:12 AM (Xg5Tf)

70 I'm going up to Door Cty in a couple weeks.. I figure I will try to feel out the locals in Sturgeon Bay and northwards.. Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 09, 2012 01:08 AM (UTq/I) Ah, Door County is lovely. Sturgeon Bay and northwards went pretty solidly for Walker in the recall vote.

Posted by: Donna V. at September 09, 2012 01:12 AM (/6swF)

71
oh, from what i hear the internal polling here in hawaii is really close
the JEF will have to spend money here too

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life) at September 09, 2012 01:12 AM (Shrag)

72 Blind faith is all this site offers. And blind faith in 2012 will get you what it got you in 08...nothing.

Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 01:09 AM (Jk+oU)

I think I won't be able to go to sleep tonight knowing that the polls might actually be right and that we might really be behind 2 whole points...

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:13 AM (/D7/G)

73 BTW, Greg, since you're reading this, how's Russ Feingold doing?

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:14 AM (/D7/G)

74 CAC or whoever... what is your opinion of the effects of having Goode on the VA ballot?

Posted by: Disgruntled Lurker at September 09, 2012 01:14 AM (VmuxO)

75 "Thanks Donna V. for the update from the trenches. As I said, I believe Obama will write off Wisconsin.."

Idiot.

Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 01:15 AM (wgkZv)

76 Gravis marketing has Romney +3 47-44 in a Sept. Poll 900 called fuck you 'tard.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:16 AM (LRFds)

77 So I walked into this bar.....

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 01:16 AM (Xg5Tf)

78 Politico 2010:

Poll analysis: Competitive midterm landscape for Dems

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42735.html

Posted by: David AxelTurd at September 09, 2012 01:17 AM (soZKf)

79 75 'tard ya sow,

Put the fuck up or shut the fuck up.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:17 AM (LRFds)

80
64 Blind faith is all this site offers. And blind faith in 2012 will get you what it got you in 08...nothing.
Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 01:09 AM (Jk+oU)

Living in your Mom's basement, sowing down on Cheetos and gargling O-spooge is no way to go through life, son.

Posted by: Dean Vernon Wormer at September 09, 2012 01:17 AM (IyKYr)

81 Idiot.

Posted by: toldyaso
........
Come back in a month and we'll see who the idiot is. You, quite apparently, do not know Wisconsin. Ryan helps Romney take it with ease.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 09, 2012 01:17 AM (UTq/I)

82 I'm Barack Obama, and I'm a phony fuckwad....

Posted by: I'm Michelle Obama, and I second this message at September 09, 2012 01:17 AM (BVkEs)

83 68

60 i see some newish names here so let me give the stupidity before
the usual "you suck cock...get your shinebox...make me a sammich"

i actually am a dem...in fact i was running for a state office here (until my wife decided to move us to waikiki)
and............i'm more conservative than almost all you RINO mofos

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life) at September 09, 2012 01:11 AM (Shrag)

Please. If it wasn't for the Cuda, you would be fappin to Patty Murray.

Posted by: MrCaniac at September 09, 2012 01:18 AM (1grxW)

84 greggie, blind faith will get you what it got you in 2010. heh. Remember, my little doofus, the polls don't yet reflect King Putt's crappy speech or the job numbers. Or - the Romney ad blitz - 'cause he has more money. Keep spinning, loser.

Posted by: Donna V. at September 09, 2012 01:19 AM (/6swF)

85
76
Not a poll I've heard of....but then again......so many polls these days...

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 01:19 AM (Xg5Tf)

86
81 no no
two months so we can savor his sweet sweet tears

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life) at September 09, 2012 01:19 AM (Shrag)

87 72 ad,

After all their success at predicting 2010 and the recalls, I guess we oughta quit...?

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:19 AM (LRFds)

88 Avenge me, Greg! Aveeenge meee!

Posted by: Ex-Sen. Russ Feingold at September 09, 2012 01:19 AM (/D7/G)

89
83 dude, i've been marries dor almost 13 years
i fap to empty soda cans now

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life) at September 09, 2012 01:20 AM (Shrag)

90 Obama already wrote off WI - see the recall; oh wait, he didn't write that off. He tweeted! Huge props to O for that hefty support! LMAO

Posted by: NewEnglandDevil at September 09, 2012 01:20 AM (eGtY4)

91 85 Richard,

Small outfit, but real. Tbere is a gap from the bigs. I'm on the nook so links are no joy.

I'll be on for the dawn patrol.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:21 AM (LRFds)

92
89 marries dor
so much for backlit keyboards
'married for'

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life) at September 09, 2012 01:21 AM (Shrag)

93 CAC or whoever... what is your opinion of the effects of having Goode on the VA ballot?
Posted by: Disgruntled Lurker at September 09, 2012 01:14 AM (VmuxO)

Obviously there will be Goode effects.

Posted by: Oldcat at September 09, 2012 01:21 AM (rzSn3)

94 I wonder how the Voter ID law will impact PA

Posted by: Jose at September 09, 2012 01:21 AM (srIqv)

95 Idiot. Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 01:15 AM (wgkZv) We'll see who the idiot is in November, mama's boy. Why, I do believe you have sand in your vajayjay.

Posted by: Donna V. at September 09, 2012 01:22 AM (/6swF)

96 91 tard ya sow,

Nope, but it is not Nate Silvers' magic ball card either twat.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:22 AM (LRFds)

97 After all their success at predicting 2010 and the recalls, I guess we oughta quit...?

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:19 AM (LRFds)

I see no choice. Especially after Russ Feingold was re-elected, Kloppenburg won, and Walker was recalled, why wouldn't everybody defer to Greg er, I mean tolyaso's judgement?

(Really, this has been such a successful jinx in our favor, I'm almost hesitant to discourage him.)

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:24 AM (/D7/G)

98 Posted by: NewEnglandDevil
..........
Quite true.. he did write off Wisconsin. He would not come to the state himself and would not send any Dem party money.. none.

Oh wait.. but he did send Debbie Wasserman-Schultz!

Hahahahahahahahahaha.. so, there.. ya got that goin' for ya, toldyaso.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 09, 2012 01:24 AM (UTq/I)

99

From the Politico link (buried, naturally, on page 2):

�They�re a broadcast network, and we�re a local cable station,� a top Obama adviser said. �Romney wins with the broader argument, which is: �You gave him a chance and he failed, so it�s time for a change.� Their best argument is not around specific groups. ...

... except for, possibly, the specific group known as the entire US UNEMPLOYED population ... all 23 million of them ...

... then ...

Our opportunity is withpeople who do not know about the president�s specific accomplishments that might affect them, and will respond when they hear about them in a very direct way.�

Who would these people be? The 34 MILLION UNEMPLOYED people? Perhaps the middle class (and other) families that are watching their health premiums skyrocket, in anticipation of ObamaCare ...

... or perhaps the 2 million Seniors who are being moved from Medicare to a ... (Ryan-esque) ... voucher plan ...

November is getting closer and closer ... and Hawaii, even with M'Chelles mother, is starting to look real nice ...

Posted by: Arbalest at September 09, 2012 01:24 AM (pVTdS)

100 i hate to be concern-trolly but i hope dude has more hard-hitting ads than that one up his sleeve.

sure he does but i'm sayin'.

Posted by: JParker at September 09, 2012 01:24 AM (8HhF2)

101 83 craniac,

It's okay NCJ IS A Mesozoic donk...

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:25 AM (LRFds)

102 89

83 dude, i've been marries dor almost 13 years
i fap to empty soda cans now

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life) at September 09, 2012 01:20 AM (Shrag)

19 years here, what kind of soda can are we talking about?

Posted by: MrCaniac looking lustfully at an empty Coke Zero can at September 09, 2012 01:25 AM (1grxW)

103 34 -> 23 MILLION UNEMPLOYED people ...

Posted by: Arbalest at September 09, 2012 01:25 AM (pVTdS)

104 Hey Greg, can you tell me what the lotto numbers won't be next week, so I can retire?

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:25 AM (/D7/G)

105 Better yet, tell me who won't beat the spread during the college games next Saturday.

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:26 AM (/D7/G)

106 AD, well the Powerball was $100 million annuity tonight.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 01:27 AM (xD2kY)

107
92
Then, I should have your back with a gulf/240.....and then some?

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 01:27 AM (Xg5Tf)

108 Ok.. I'm off to bed with dreams of libtards like toldyaso cryin in their beers come Nov 7th.

Nite all!

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 09, 2012 01:28 AM (UTq/I)

109 6t KvC,

Ogabe/Plugz 2012-cuz *I* cut the fu*king cake bra!

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:28 AM (LRFds)

110 Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 01:21 AM (1Udz

Jeezuz tap-dancing Cripes! See this? See the kind of second-rate lack luster fucking trolls we have working for us these days? Here we are strapped for cash and all we can afford are these measly little shitwad concern-trolls who can't even spread doom and gloom with confidence. FUCK ME! SHIT!

er I mean... It's all over for Romney!

Posted by: David AxelTurd at September 09, 2012 01:28 AM (soZKf)

111 Now this is funny -

"Mitt Romney says Bill Clinton's speech to the Democratic National Convention "really did elevate" that gathering and that the former two-term president might even be able to win another four years in the White House "if the Constitution weren't in his way." Romney's comments, in an excerpt of an interview with Meet the Press, came as Clinton prepared to campaign for President Barack Obama in key swing states."

http://tinyurl.com/9q7f82m

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 01:30 AM (xD2kY)

112 Chi-Town Jerry, nah, toldyaso has no idea how good the WI GOTV machine has become, thanks to the failed Walker recall. Really, I'm impressed. They know exactly who to hit. It's been a very good day for me - especially since the Brew Crew won the Series against the Cardinals. If they sweep tomorrow and the Pack wins - well, I'll count it as a most excellent weekend.

Posted by: Donna V. at September 09, 2012 01:30 AM (/6swF)

113 i hate to be concern-trolly but i hope dude has more hard-hitting ads than that one up his sleeve.

sure he does but i'm sayin'.
Posted by: JParker at September 09, 2012 01:24 AM (8HhF2)

Everyone has that ad in their head, when they think about their job, or their friend's job, or the tombstones of empty stores in their neighborhood that used to be open and aren't.

Screaming isn't always the point.

Posted by: Oldcat at September 09, 2012 01:32 AM (rzSn3)

114 112 AP,

He's either a genius or a fool.

I think the genius of it is he's backhandedly fucking with Choom's ego.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:33 AM (LRFds)

115 107 AD, well the Powerball was $100 million annuity tonight.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 01:27 AM (xD2kY)

Damnit, that's really being selfish of him for posting this late...

Wait, he told you didn't he?

In fact, that's it isn't it? That's why he's still able to show up here...he's been helping everybody (telling them who wouldn't beat the spreads... what the lottery numbers wouldn't be... what number the roulette ball wouldn't land on) and I'm the last to get in on it.

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:34 AM (/D7/G)

116 I mean Mitt's like the big brother to a sister whose husband fucked the nanny and ran off, "you know Jane voter I know Reggie ran off but Ithat Billy Jeff guy he's kind of smart and actually made money."

Weird, but funny.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:37 AM (LRFds)

117
111

It would seem....naw, not gonna go there...

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 01:37 AM (Xg5Tf)

118 Screaming isn't always the point. Posted by: Oldcat at September 09, 2012 01:32 AM (rzSn3) Well don't tell that to toldyaso, he had multiple orgasms to Dems screaming their heads off and Jennifer Granholm going into grand mal seizures. That's all his pitiful brain can comprehend.

Posted by: Donna V. at September 09, 2012 01:37 AM (/6swF)

119 I'm still hoping for a full-blown screeching, whiniest-little-bitch-in-the-whole-wide-world tantrum from O'bumbles....maybe during the one debate he might agree to, when Mittens boots his dumb ass halfway back to Chicago?

Posted by: model_1066 at September 09, 2012 01:37 AM (yYKoR)

120 Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 01:31 AM (1Udz

"The important thing for Romney, aides believe, is not to rub the
voters� noses in their decision from four years ago. Don�t bash Obama,
don�t even harp on how he�s not up to the job � that carries the
implication that they should have known that when they voted for him.
Just focus on the point that his policies have not made things better.
�You�ve got to be careful in terms of how you talk about the president,�
says a top Romney campaign aide. �It�s his policies and performance
voters are concerned about � that�s the focus.�"

http://tinyurl.com/9uvdhwl

Posted by: David AxelTurd at September 09, 2012 01:37 AM (soZKf)

121 If Greg is so confident of victory, why spend 15 hours a day desperately trying to worry us??

He should be kicking back with a few beers and waiting for November,

Someone might get suspicious that the Dems aren't so confident after all......

Posted by: AussieMarcus at September 09, 2012 01:37 AM (RstsB)

122

-> 23 MILLION UNEMPLOYED ... how long ago was it this bad? Why is it this bad now? (EPA, NO Drilling, ...)

-> ... 2 million Seniors who are being moved from Medicare to a ... (Ryan-esque) ... voucher plan ...

... b..bb..but ... ObamaCare is supposed to Save US Money ...

Romney, in November, by 10+ ... heh ...

Posted by: Arbalest at September 09, 2012 01:37 AM (pVTdS)

123 Sven, all genius and courage.

Meet the Press is the lions' den, if he can do a Daniel with them he proves his can nut up. And complimenting Obama's Secretary of Explaining Stuff Clinton that way, Jarret the Ferret probably chewed off a table leg or two once she read it while Barry sucked down a carton of cigs.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 01:38 AM (xD2kY)

124 And as I've said, these ads MUST be making an impact or else Greg wouldn't be trying to convince us they're lame.

if they really were lame, he'd be supporting them and encouraging the GOP to run more......

Posted by: AussieMarcus at September 09, 2012 01:40 AM (RstsB)

125 Walker did not win Wisconsin by being attack-dog negative, but by being reasonable and logical, as compared to the screaming retards in Madison.
Toldyaso, your obvious complete ignorance of this state is laughable.

Posted by: Donna V. at September 09, 2012 01:40 AM (/6swF)

126 125 AP,

"I AM President of this house Jane Voter! Me, why does everything smell of deceit, corruption, profit, and cigars? Answer me goddamnit!"

//Reggie Obama

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:42 AM (LRFds)

127 Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:34 AM (/D7/G)

Whut?

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 01:42 AM (xD2kY)

128 Screaming isn't always the point. Posted by: Oldcat at September 09, 2012 01:32 AM (rzSn3) Well don't tell that to toldyaso, he had multiple orgasms to Dems screaming their heads off and Jennifer Granholm going into grand mal seizures. That's all his pitiful brain can comprehend.
Posted by: Donna V. at September 09, 2012 01:37 AM (/6swF)

You remember the term 'a word to the wise' ?

thus nothing was directed at the troll of the week.

Posted by: Oldcat at September 09, 2012 01:42 AM (rzSn3)

129 64
"this whole "don't worry, the tide will turn any day now" is not exactly comforting

hope you're right, but I'll believe it when I see it"

Blind faith is all this site offers. And blind faith in 2012 will get you what it got you in 08...nothing.

Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 01:09 AM (Jk+oU)
HAHAAHAHAAAHAAAAA!!!!1!!!!1!11one!!!Gerg your sooooo funny!!! Oh ... I'm sorry "different" person. You all sound the same! It is so funny reading and listening to all the O-Bot propaganda that they console themselves with. Talking about blind faith, isn't that what you guys basically voted Obama in with in 2008? Oh right, that was "Hope and Change."

Posted by: NWConservative at September 09, 2012 01:43 AM (M1gmo)

130 Re: ads. I want charts and graphs. In color. Bright colors.

As for Obama... he will attack when cornered. He did it in every election his entire career. If he can bribe his way to dirt on Romney he will do it. If there is no dirt to find he will try to craft some. It will get ugly when it becomes clear Romney is going to win.

Posted by: Disgruntled Lurker at September 09, 2012 01:43 AM (VmuxO)

131 From the 9/15/08 US News World Report daily update:

"Sen. John McCain is up over Sen. Barack Obama in two national polls out
in the last 24 hours, while the race is tied in a third. The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll of 2,787 registered voters taken September 11-13 shows McCain leading Obama 47%-45%. The Rasmussen Reports
automated presidential tracking poll for September 14 shows McCain
leading Obama 50%-47%. Rasmussen notes that this is the first time
McCain has reached the 50% threshold since Obama secured the nomination.
A Newsweek poll of 1,038 registered voters taken September 10-11 shows Obama and McCain tied at 46%."

"

McCain Edges Obama In Nevada A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 700 likely Nevada voters taken September 11 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-46%.

McCain Up 4 In Ohio
A Suffolk University poll of 600 likely Ohio votes taken September 10-13 shows McCain leading Obama 46%-42%.

Race Tied In Minnesota
The Minneapolis Star Tribune
(9/14, Von Sternberg, 357K) reports that a "new Star Tribune Minnesota
Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and
John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the
state."

Obama Leads In Iowa By 12 Points In Des Moines Register Poll
A Des Moines Register
poll shows Obama leading McCain in Iowa by a margin of 52%-40%. The
survey of 801 Iowa voters was conducted over September 8-10.

Obama Holds Small Lead In New Jersey
A Marist poll of 805 registered New Jersey voters taken September 5-8
shows Obama leading McCain 47%-40%. Among a smaller sub-sample of 584
likely voters, Obama's lead is just 48%-45%."

That was almost 2 weeks after the RNC in 08. Then the economy took center stage.

Posted by: MrCaniac looking lustfully at an empty Coke Zero can at September 09, 2012 01:43 AM (1grxW)

132 "I AM President of this house Jane Voter! Me,
why does everything smell of deceit, corruption, profit, and cigars?
Answer me goddamnit!"

//Reggie Obama

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:42 AM (LRFds)

LOL Poor Julia, she and Jane are trapped with Reggie 'Misery' Obama.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 01:43 AM (xD2kY)

133 As for Obama... he will attack when cornered. He did it in every election his entire career. If he can bribe his way to dirt on Romney he will do it. If there is no dirt to find he will try to craft some. It will get ugly when it becomes clear Romney is going to win.
Posted by: Disgruntled Lurker at September 09, 2012 01:43 AM (VmuxO)

You been asleep for the last two months, Rip Van Winkle?

Posted by: Oldcat at September 09, 2012 01:46 AM (rzSn3)

134 Why is Ohio suddenly being written off as being unimportant? It's a must win. 18 electoral votes.

Politico is crap. It's like a tabloid. They quoted "two top Republicans" back when Ryan was first put on the ticket. Made it sound like everyone in the party was in shear panic mode.

Posted by: Mo the girl at September 09, 2012 01:46 AM (K7EkP)

135 Posted by: MrCaniac looking lustfully at an empty Coke Zero can at September 09, 2012 01:43 AM (1grxW)

Begone you demon vixen of a can!!!!

Posted by: MrCaniac at September 09, 2012 01:46 AM (1grxW)

136 "As for Obama...
... If there is no dirt to find he will try to craft some. It will get ugly when it becomes clear Romney is going to win."

Isn't this ALREADY happening?

Posted by: Arbalest at September 09, 2012 01:46 AM (pVTdS)

137 I know Nate Silver is a hack for two main reasons:

1) Every single leftist I know on the internet worships him.

2) He seriously thinks Obama is going to win Iowa.

Ignore him. RealClearPolitics is a much better source.

Posted by: RE at September 09, 2012 01:47 AM (Aosrs)

138 135 this shit for the last two months is nothing. I mean fire and brimstone level shit. It will fail. He can't pay off a judge to get Romney kicked off the ballot or to released sealed records so it will fail... but he won't go quietly.

Posted by: Disgruntled Lurker at September 09, 2012 01:48 AM (VmuxO)

139 136 mtg,

We ain't losing Ohio if the vote is legal. The dead get too excited of Cleveland goes too ACORN eh "maybe". We are dying to put cheaters away.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:49 AM (LRFds)

140 Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:34 AM (/D7/G)

Whut?

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 01:42 AM (xD2kY)

I've figured out why Greg toldyaso is still able to post here. The only conceivable reason is that everybody has decided to use his powers of "getting every single prediction wrong" for good--i.e., asking him what numbers not to bet on, what teams aren't going to win and betting against that. It's the only possible explanation.

However, they obviously can't tell everybody, so apparently we were left out. We've got to get a piece of this.

Posted by: AD at September 09, 2012 01:49 AM (/D7/G)

141 this shit for the last two months is nothing. I mean fire and brimstone level shit. It will fail. He can't pay off a judge to get Romney kicked off the ballot or to released sealed records so it will fail... but he won't go quietly.
Posted by: Disgruntled Lurker at September 09, 2012 01:48 AM (VmuxO)

He lost the last zillion primaries in 2008 and had to have McCain go stop his campaign to pull ahead.

I'm so scared of his political genius.

Posted by: Oldcat at September 09, 2012 01:50 AM (rzSn3)

142
R/R should run the Obama Quote about three years to turn things around or I'll be a one term proposition 24/7 nationwide starting Oct 20. Use Obama's ownwords to sink him.

{Obama Quote} {Mitt Romney} Yes, Iagree that President Obama should be a one term president if he did not improve the economy. I am Mitt Romney and I approve this message. Vote for me on November 6.

Posted by: rd at September 09, 2012 01:50 AM (9sUlj)

143 Okay well this was certainly the oddest waking up drop the nook oh no interlude in a bit.

Night all.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2012 01:51 AM (LRFds)

144 139

Problem with RCP is that they just average every poll, no matter how ridiculous it is. So credible national polls like Ras are given the same weighting as some University of Bumfuck 300 Adult poll...

In theory, Nate Silvers weighting mehod is better, but his methodology seems to be more closely guarded and secretive than the Colonel's secret herbs and spices....

Posted by: AussieMarcus at September 09, 2012 01:53 AM (RstsB)

145 I am a homosexual and proud of it. Reggie and I are getting married.

Posted by: Barack Love-Obama at September 09, 2012 01:53 AM (xNGcB)

146
ObjectionSustained wrote:

"If our country intentionally chooses to continue on its current path, then I have a beef not only with politicians, but also with my neighbors. Once we have lost the social glue of mutual trust, this movie has a really unpleasant ending."

I've had that beef with my neighbors - well, with probably more than half the country - since before this ridiculous president was elected (starting with the national hysteria, complete disgrace of the toxic freakshow that is the Dem Party, and cowardice of so many GOP and "conservative" leaders and citizens around 2005). It's a beef that's completely passive, and silent. But it's fizzled friendships and reduced the already small tolerance for the ignorance and bigotry of many to a bare minimum (olympian forebearance is the only way to describe what's for dinner at some family gatherings).

But as of now I'd be quite surprised if Mitt doesn't win handily. However, while nice, one can wonderwhether there's any realistic chance of restoring some seriousness and character to the country. Just one reminder: Roberts' absurd beclownment with his "health care" opinion. Rule of law is as surely absent when words cease to have meaning, and logic to have force, as when rioters run wild without opposition, or gangs and thugs prey on others without fear of punishment. Institutional rot in the US is so advanced, seems very iffy whether it will not win in the end.

Posted by: non-purist at September 09, 2012 01:53 AM (xfxTk)

147 114
"i hate to be concern-trolly but i hope dude has more hard-hitting ads than that one up his sleeve. "

C'mon, this is the blistering "shock and awe" carpet bombing ad
attack Romney/Ryan promised! Isn't it awesome? How can they lose with
devastating ads like that, lol?

Posted by: toldyaso at September 09, 2012 01:31 AM (1Udz

Well, ya know, since Citizens United, all the EVIL corporations can contribute AS MUCH AS THEY WANT TO RUN EVIL ADS AGAINST OBAMA. So Romney, much like Obama in 2008, can run a nice and clean campaign and let his surrogates do all the attacking for him. And complimenting Clinton is directed squarely at Obama to drive a wedge between the two even more than there already is.

Posted by: NWConservative at September 09, 2012 01:54 AM (M1gmo)

148
Sell all your gold!

He will not win!

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 01:55 AM (Xg5Tf)

149 The ads will tell us Obama is a nice guy, but in a little over his head.

Coulter has to be going crazy!

Posted by: Valiant at September 09, 2012 01:55 AM (aFxlY)

150 143 You misunderstand me. I am not saying he is a political genius, just the opposite. When you can't do something honestly, you cheat. I am saying he plays dirty. It appears Romney has the ground game and the legal bases covered. I just expect to see it get very dirty.

Posted by: Disgruntled Lurker at September 09, 2012 01:57 AM (VmuxO)

151 The reason I chose 9/15/08 as the date of those polls is because the next several days is when the election turned. Why did the election turn?

This little nugget will refresh our memories:

"
Lehman Goes Under, Financial System Braces For Storm

Coverage of the latest crises in the US financial system casts the
situation is dire terms, presenting the demise of Lehman Brothers as a
potential harbinger of future collapses. The Washington Post
(9/15) reports this morning, "Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy
early Monday morning, becoming the largest financial firm to fail in the
global credit crisis, after federal officials refused to help other
companies buy the venerable investment bank by putting up taxpayer money
as a guarantee." The Wall Street Journal reports "the American financial system was shaken to its core on Sunday," and "a sense of foreboding gripped Wall Street,"

After that date, Bambi started moving higher and took the lead and never trailed after that. Friday's jobs numbers was that. Voters look around and now Barky's shit ain't working, and it won't get better by November.

Posted by: MrCaniac at September 09, 2012 01:58 AM (1grxW)

152 The MSM will be apoplectic when Romney wins, because it will be be them (the MSM) on trial.

Posted by: Craig Poe at September 09, 2012 01:02 AM (BVkEs)

Any bets on which MSNBC host is most likely to attempt an on air suicide?

Posted by: The Political Hat at September 09, 2012 02:00 AM (sZTYJ)

153 43 You misunderstand me. I am not saying he is a political genius, just the opposite. When you can't do something honestly, you cheat. I am saying he plays dirty. It appears Romney has the ground game and the legal bases covered. I just expect to see it get very dirty.
Posted by: Disgruntled Lurker at September 09, 2012 01:57 AM (VmuxO)

Playing dirty takes skill too.

Posted by: Oldcat at September 09, 2012 02:00 AM (rzSn3)

154 I guess this fluff piece is intended to make Michelle more human
http://tinyurl.com/8tth7xv

"Malia and Sasha have to play two sports: one they choose and one selected by their mother."

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 09, 2012 02:03 AM (xD2kY)

155 I'm just hoping that if/when a preference cascade starts showing the Wisconsin and similar states falling in behind Romney, he'll be able to show CO, NM, & NV some love...

Posted by: The Political Hat at September 09, 2012 02:03 AM (sZTYJ)

156
Posted by: MrCaniac looking lustfully at an empty Coke Zero can at September 09, 2012 01:43 AM (1grxW)

And then McCain F'ed it all up by nobly "Suspending" his campaign to look like an ineffective dweeb in DC during the financial crisis.
And he muzzled Palin when she was actually out there campaigning and hitting back at Obama and the rest of the Democrats. Dumb ass good loser idiot. He did not want to win.

By the end of the campaign Mc Cain was so interested in LOSING that he even said Obama was a great guy and there was nothing to be afraid of if Obama won.

======
By the way, pet peeves ---luzer is spelled LOSER with one (1) O, NOT 2! Sandra Fluke is looser IYKWIMAITYD.
And ridiculous does not have any E's in it!

Posted by: rd at September 09, 2012 02:03 AM (9sUlj)

157 "Lehman Goes Under, Financial System Braces For Storm "

... and wasn't Chuckie Schumer involved, somehow?

There is no Lehman-equivalent now ... even if there was, it would be squished all over Teh JEF's shoe ...

Posted by: Arbalest at September 09, 2012 02:04 AM (pVTdS)

158 we all hale OBAMA, he is the only ONE.

Posted by: politico at September 09, 2012 02:05 AM (kMhns)

159 153 True... it's the difference between a natural born talent and someone who spends their entire life trying to be something they just aren't a natural at.

Obama has always had a card up his sleeve for the situations that he knew he would fail. He didn't need to play this card in 2008, McCain folded.

Posted by: Disgruntled Lurker at September 09, 2012 02:06 AM (VmuxO)

160
MrCaniac looking lustfully at an empty Coke Zero can

i lol'ed

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life) at September 09, 2012 02:07 AM (Shrag)

161 144
139

Problem with RCP is that they just average every poll, no matter how
ridiculous it is. So credible national polls like Ras are given the
same weighting as some University of Bumfuck 300 Adult poll...

In theory, Nate Silvers weighting mehod is better, but his
methodology seems to be more closely guarded and secretive than the
Colonel's secret herbs and spices....

Posted by: AussieMarcus at September 09, 2012 01:53 AM (RstsB)

Nate's weighting method is fucking whatever makes the D's look better. He weighs pollsters differently in different states. If Rasmussen has Obama down in Virginia, he gives it little weight. If Rasmussen has Obama up in Iowa, it gets weighted heavier.

He doesn't have a methodology, he has a bias. He is a Democrat party hack who works in the media (BIRM).

Posted by: MrCaniac at September 09, 2012 02:07 AM (1grxW)

162 If a financial crisis rears its ugly head, it will be a landslide election in favor of Romney and not just any old landslide, but one of epic proportions that gives us almost enough seats for 60 in the Senate if not in fact supermajority control.

Posted by: NWConservative at September 09, 2012 02:07 AM (M1gmo)

163 Look at Silver on Iowa:

goo.gl/5Z2yK

There have only been two recent, credible polls out of Iowa. Rasmussen has Romney up 2. PPP has Obama up 2.

So, a tie, right?

But Silver has Obama up 1.5 in the polling average. He then "adjusts" it up to 2.1. How does he justify that? No clue.

Then he does some bullshit "state fundamentals" that have Obama up 6.1! His final projected vote share is Obama up 4 points. He has Obama with a 74% chance of winning the state. Absurd.

Here are the actual *hard* numbers from Iowa today, compared to 2004 and 2008:

goo.gl/JykpR

Romney will win Iowa outside the margin-of-fraud. Book it.

Posted by: RE at September 09, 2012 02:10 AM (Aosrs)

164 160

MrCaniac looking lustfully at an empty Coke Zero can

i lol'ed

Posted by: navycopjoe (Da Bears rule my life)

It was a nasty little minx, but it asked for it.

Posted by: MrCaniac, smoking a Marlboro at September 09, 2012 02:11 AM (1grxW)

165 But Silver has Obama up 1.5 in the polling average. He then "adjusts" it up to 2.1. How does he justify that? No clue.

Posted by: RE at September 09, 2012 02:10 AM (Aosrs)

Clearly, it is the work of aliens...

Posted by: Giorgio A. Tsoukalos at September 09, 2012 02:13 AM (sZTYJ)

166
Oh!

There still seems to be this....."issue" bout the "O" being born here and all.

jus sayin....(not a birther)....yet, it still is an issue...(why?)
You would have thought the MSM would have put this down month's ago!
You would have thought the State Dept. would have put this down month's ago.
You would have thought the Gov. of HAWAII would have "Asserted" and Verified the birth.....yet he did not? Thats right..He did not!

WTF?

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 02:13 AM (Xg5Tf)

167 jus sayin....(not a birther)....yet, it still is an issue...(why?)

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 02:13 AM (Xg5Tf)

It's Br'er Barry's briar patch. By not putting this to rest he encourages the tin-foil hat crowd to go full retard and go off on conspiratorial tangents which does nothing but protect him from legitimate investigations, such as into his college records.

Posted by: The Political Hat at September 09, 2012 02:16 AM (sZTYJ)

168
167
Fine then, still makes me skin crawl at the thought......

jus saying!

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 02:20 AM (Xg5Tf)

169 goo.gl/JykpR

Romney will win Iowa outside the margin-of-fraud. Book it.

Posted by: RE at September 09, 2012 02:10 AM (Aosrs)

Couple of days ago when I went to that cesspool, there was actually one state that had Romney leading every poll, but his "magic data" had it so that Barky would win the state.

It's like election night. The networks will call a +4 Dem state within minutes of the polls closing, but those same networks will wait 2 hours to call a +10 GOP state. Hell, they will call a +1 Dem state in the hour after the polls in that state close. I remember it took them 2 hours to call Mississippi in 04, even though Bush won it by about 20.

Posted by: MrCaniac at September 09, 2012 02:22 AM (1grxW)

170 Romney needs to do the old one-two in ads: start with Obama's a nice but failed president, then slide into "his Stalinistic five-year plans fail because socialism always fails."

A little passive-aggressive, a little snark, a little pat on the back followed by a knife in the same location.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at September 09, 2012 02:31 AM (lwk+8)

171
So,

I'm thinking then, I live pretty close to Occidental, maybe I could sneak over there and....you know....."My Own Private Idaho!!"
KNOCK-KNOCK

"who's there?'
"SECRET SERVICE!!!"

"dang!"

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 02:34 AM (Xg5Tf)

172 CBS never got around to calling Ohio for Bush in 2004. I guess they couldn't bring themselves to admit Bush won after Rather got caught with his forged Bush military records.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at September 09, 2012 02:35 AM (yJYwC)

173 drunk thought, the red v. blue states is sort of off huh, i mean red is the Communist color. damn you 2000

Posted by: JParker at September 09, 2012 02:39 AM (8HhF2)

174 173 drunk thought, the red v. blue states is sort of off huh, i mean red is the Communist color. damn you 2000
Posted by: JParker at September 09, 2012 02:39 AM (8HhF2)

********************

Nothin' drunk about it. I've thought for a long time we should give the red color back to the commies. Maybe after the election the Star Prince could start working on FOX and the conservative punditry to swap them in common usage. For all it's faults, FOX kicks the other "newsies" asses, so enough repetition in various media might pull it off by 2014 or '16.

Posted by: Boomer Redneque at September 09, 2012 02:45 AM (eQnzo)

175
Correct!!!!
We have been mis-colored! Red is commie (simple fact AND WHY THE FUCK HAVE WE NOT FIXED THAT SHIT OVER THE LAST6 YEARS???

RED, WHITE AND BLUE. AMERICA....THAT BE US I DO THINK!

The Progressive/Commie/Socialist POS's should be red like blood, like blood on the streets if ya don't live by our doctrine..like MARX...like LENNIN...like POL POT...LIKE the FAV. BUTT BUDDY ..."MAO!!!!" YUP they should be the red stench and the red death. How the fuck did the party that can save the world be labeled "RED?????"

jus sayin....and please fix this before I wake up in the morning or else.......

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 02:57 AM (Xg5Tf)

176 yeah.

anyway i'm just hoping Romney wins, well for a lot of reasons, but 2008 was my first presidential election and i don't wanna spend the next however-many elections feeling like the Dems must've felt in the '80s

Posted by: JParker at September 09, 2012 02:58 AM (8HhF2)

177 #147 "Complimenting Clinton" is not primarily about driving a wedge between Clinton and Obama. It's about the hunt for lunch-pail Hillary Democrats who mostly turned out for Barry in 08, now disillusioned. Praising Bill reminds them that Obama is a different kind of Democrat. Remember Hillary swept the blue collar white vote in 08 primaries.

Posted by: TD at September 09, 2012 02:59 AM (+uFux)

178
YOU THINK I AM FUCKING KIDDING?????
"FIX THIS NOW!!!!!"

night all..sweet dreams, must go out and feed my bunnies now. They do love the late night veggie treats......

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 03:02 AM (Xg5Tf)

179
"Don't be pussies...
Bring the "FLAME!"

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 03:20 AM (Xg5Tf)

180 When the Badger state comes in red, you can all have what I'm having

Moar map, pleaze

Posted by: LOLfluffy at September 09, 2012 03:37 AM (z9HTb)

181 night all..sweet dreams, must go out and feed my bunnies now. They do love the late night veggie treats......

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 03:02 AM (Xg5Tf)

Who doesn't? I just had some green beans with butter, salt and pepper. And a heirloom tomato I picked today. Double yum!

Posted by: model_1066 at September 09, 2012 03:40 AM (yYKoR)

182 Can't wait for the increased release of maps and analyses as we near the election... I am a sucker for those!

Posted by: The Political Hat at September 09, 2012 03:43 AM (sZTYJ)

183 Now off to sleep in the pressurized oxygen chamber I bought at Michael Jackson's estate sale for $3.50...just kidding.

Posted by: model_1066 at September 09, 2012 03:44 AM (yYKoR)

184
181
I so go over the top.....not care...SO not care...time for being reach across is over...time to crush and plant some...steel plate over the toxic is now. The "O" is toxic....can you all guess where this is going?

Posted by: Richard at September 09, 2012 03:53 AM (Xg5Tf)

185 Gee so much for Greg's awesome confidence that Romney wasn't going to try in Wisconsin.

Posted by: buzzion at September 09, 2012 04:12 AM (GULKT)

186 "When the Badger state comes in red, you can all have what I'm having"

Ya mean after Romney wins, we go thru Madison on Horseback and slaughter all the liberals and literally turn the streets bloody red? HELL YEAH!!

Posted by: Vlad the Impaler at September 09, 2012 04:27 AM (xk0Xg)

187 And with Romney deciding not to even contest Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, it looks like that was a smart decision.
Posted by: Greg at September 07, 2012 06:55 PM (TN0zB)

Just putting that up there for everyone to remember and laugh.

Posted by: buzzion at September 09, 2012 04:27 AM (GULKT)

188 All I know is this- The Kid and I are so poor our church mice squeak when they walk- but I am sending R&R more money.We can't afford four more years of tumbleweeds in empty parking lots.

Posted by: backhoe at September 09, 2012 06:45 AM (ULH4o)

189 Is it just me or is there something missing from this post, because I'm not sure I really understand what he is trying to say.

Posted by: kinlaw at September 09, 2012 07:31 AM (l1ZyS)

190 My liberal brother invokes Nate Silver like he is God Himself. Nice to see a slap down like this one. Thanks CAC.

Posted by: Throat Wobbler Mangrove at September 09, 2012 07:36 AM (lh5JI)

191 The Axelrod campaign technique that will become even more apparent as we move forward: take your every perceived weakness and blame Romney loudly and repeatedly for those same weaknesses in the press and in campaign speeches. Muddy up the issue so Romney is unable to land clean punches. A bold face lie is more easily believed than a tepid one.

Just yesterday I heard Obama blaming the R's understanding of arithmetic and funneling money to cronies who give them money.

Posted by: CausticConservative at September 09, 2012 07:40 AM (gT3jF)

192 Oh man, I think CAC got into my stash.

Posted by: JDTAY at September 09, 2012 07:53 AM (a0nis)

193 http://is.gd/gCAiDC

CAC got me to thinking... My latest obamicon.me.

Posted by: sTevo at September 09, 2012 08:02 AM (VMcEw)

194 "Muddy up the issue so Romney is unable to land clean punches. A bold face lie is more easily believed than a tepid one..."
-------------------
Romney hasn't fallen for this so far. He didn't take the bait and discuss his taxes, his super-secret cancer rays, his "felonious Bain departure time, the war on women, etc. He Ryan have been all economy/Obama failed 24x7. All while throwing in little jabs like "bless his heart."
Axe will get uglier, but it's looking like it will just reflect back on Obama, and his obvious desperation. The wild card is the MSM, and their ability to change the narrative (e.g. Akin) and/or an international crisis type October surprise.

Posted by: Lizzy at September 09, 2012 08:05 AM (0xTD+)

195 Posted by: sTevo at September 09, 2012 08:02 AM (VMcEw)

What's Meno? Should that be Memo? Good Googly Moogly.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at September 09, 2012 08:05 AM (9TTOe)

196 Thanks OSP, I'll get right on it.

Posted by: sTevo at September 09, 2012 08:06 AM (VMcEw)

197 Meno (Ancient Greek: Μένων

is a Socratic
dialogue written by Plato. It attempts to determine the definition of
virtue, or arete, meaning virtue in general, rather ...

I screwed up memo but meno can stand.

Posted by: sTevo at September 09, 2012 08:08 AM (VMcEw)

198 our state senator said in a rousing speech last night (at a GOP fundraiser) that we have to commit daily to talk to people about R/R, in case of Virginia, George Allen for Senate.

in our Bible belt Southern Va area, people are lukewarm on Mitt. Whether that is because he is not Mr. Right Wing Conservative or because he is a Mormon, I don't know.

everyone has to vote for him. everyone.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 09, 2012 08:08 AM (p3a8+)

199 HEY. GET UP!!! Sunday thread anyone?

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at September 09, 2012 08:09 AM (9TTOe)

200 I screwed up memo but meno can stand.
Posted by: sTevo at September 09, 2012 08:08 AM (VMcEw)

Sure, if you only want smart people to enjoy it. It's all greek to me.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at September 09, 2012 08:11 AM (9TTOe)

201 Screw it, I'm going to take princess dog for a walk. But when I get back. I spect some world class sunday morning open thread from Top Men. TOP MEN!

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at September 09, 2012 08:14 AM (9TTOe)

202 TOP MEN!

Sexist, what would Dagny say about that?

Posted by: sTevo at September 09, 2012 08:16 AM (VMcEw)

203 Good morning.

It's still way too early to worry too much about the polls. Obama may have received a small bounce from Bill Clinton's speech. But it's a sugar-high that should dissipate quickly.

Come Halloween, the polls from reputable sources should be reliable.

Posted by: Bart who lurks at September 09, 2012 08:26 AM (he2LC)

204 Gerg wept.

Posted by: nikkolai at September 09, 2012 08:33 AM (pSsN0)

205
It is funny...we ALL KNEW THIS WAS COMING AFTER THE DNC....Obama unbeatable....he gets a bounce while Romney had none...I mean come on...LOL!! Like all those enthused Republicans left...or when 54 percent believe Obama does not DESERVE RE-ELECTION.....LOL...they changed their minds after DNC...COME ON!!

The media is creating a narrative to neutralize Romney's Money Advantage..they are clearly trying to deflate Republicans and give a sense of INEVITABILITY of Obama. It is BS!! There is not enough paper in the world that will make Republicans stay home on Nov 6th. Sorry 2010 is goig to look like Child's Play!!

And Some Moron posted Republican Analysts are dismayed that Ohio is moving toward Obama...LOL!! I love this...NAME THEM??? Oh that is right Anonymous as usual...OR MADE UP!! Or two sore losers who Romney did not HIRE for his team!!

This narrative was bound to happen and totally expected. Polls with slants will be all over the place to help Obama....but I laugh!! From the NRA to Evangelicals to Catholics to Small Business Owners to Married Couples....Obama will lose!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 09, 2012 09:35 AM (HDcKc)

206

Soon the leeches will have to stop drinking that "Hopium laced
Kool-Aid" since Obama will be out of a job soon. So put a fork in the
Judeo/Christian haters, they're done!

Posted by: Milt at September 09, 2012 09:40 AM (MomFh)

207 Ras has O 49-45... 52 approval... this will fade this week.. he notes 40-64 O has made strides. this election will come down to 50-64 y/o subgroup, there is a weakness for R/R in this subgroup...they are the hippies of the 60's...R/R is trying to cut into the under 50 subgroup to make up the diff .. 65 + hates O

Posted by: Mark2 at September 09, 2012 09:56 AM (Bfnt/)

208 Terrible ad. Who give a crap about the "debt?" Only we conservatives do. The American sheeple care about jobs, gas prices, healthcare, etc. The �debt� doesn�t make your nose stuffed up or make your car break down. It is so abstract it has ZERO impact, and also people know the GOP runs Congress and blames them MORE than Obama. So stupid to waste millions on this ineffective ad.

Posted by: John Hill at September 09, 2012 10:00 AM (21CTW)

209 They need to put it much more locally. They need to refer to the Walker success and relate it to money coming out of the peoples pockets and the debt needs to be related to enslaving your grandchildren to an out of control spending spree by the so-called "adults" of today.
Make it personal or it won't work. I agree wtih #208 John Hill.

Posted by: chuck in st paul at September 09, 2012 10:14 AM (EhYdw)

210 Doggone! Is this the same group of posters who wereslitting their veins last night? Must have gotten a good sleep last night, for I detect some optimism.

Posted by: Jinx the Cat at September 09, 2012 10:22 AM (UJcpR)

211 That guy in the pic is riding the H-train.

Posted by: @PurpAv at September 09, 2012 10:42 AM (OciS5)

212 Why would the fundies sit on their hands for this election? Teh Mormon thing? Seriously?

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at September 09, 2012 11:06 AM (aQ2q2)

213 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at September 09, 2012 11:36 AM (6o4Fb)

214
Hopefully this is just a beginning. I agree they need to make more personal to Wisconsin and use Scott Walker as an example. Mitt needs to give a kick to Obama bigtime and tying with Scott would be a good way and showing the Walker way toreform vs the Big Government Way of Obama. They musttie to the future of America and families.

Mitt has a lot of cash...useit wisely!

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 09, 2012 11:54 AM (HDcKc)

215 A Landslide not only in the Presidential ticket but in the Congressional races would put the final nail in the coffin for this grotesque monster called the left.

Posted by: Holger at September 09, 2012 12:32 PM (MHk3m)

216 The Romney ad was brilliant in mentioning a "prarie fire of debt". That was the title William Ayres book " Prairie Fire: The Politics of Revolutionary Anti-Imperialism." How better to remind voters of Obama's association with the Weather Underground?

Posted by: scrubjay at September 09, 2012 12:55 PM (I105f)

217 R&R will benefit if the Chicago teacher's strike goes forward tomorrow and becomes a long, contentious internecine fight.

Posted by: Scobface at September 09, 2012 01:08 PM (IoNBC)

218 I liked that Drudge kept it in perspective today by reminding readers in 1980 Gallup had Carter 4 points over Reagan also in September.

And in October, they had Carter up by 8 points.

And that race ended up being an epic blowout.

Posted by: Jeepers at September 09, 2012 01:40 PM (XDRsa)

219 Okay so Gallup today has Obama at 49 percent...no more climb....which is good....he jumped two points yesterday and this is with Registered Voters....which on weekends has fewer Repubs anyway...and more Dems....his Approval Dropped Two points and his Disapproval went up 2 points.....this is showing the bounce has stopped....and with Registered Voters....

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 09, 2012 01:45 PM (HDcKc)

220 Rasmussen had McCain winning in September. However anyone who actually thinks that Romney is going to win should place his money down at Intrade. The reality is that he is not winning now and that the over/under on electoral votes should probably be around 300

Posted by: occam at September 09, 2012 01:51 PM (71sq+)

221 Where is the conservative go-to poll person, the red equivalent of Nate Silver?

Isn't the marketplace crying out for such a person?

Could Ace/AOSHQ find and cultivate such a person?

Posted by: John at September 09, 2012 01:54 PM (9196u)

222 Ohio takes themselves too seriously with all this must-win talk. Romney has roots in MI, which is well within reach. If he takes IA, WI and MI, OH will come along. But of Romney is struggling to take OH and VA, he looks like he's catching up.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at September 09, 2012 02:04 PM (i0vBR)

223 Let them eat cock.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 09, 2012 03:09 PM (lEcZh)

224 "All the groaning and eeyoring by folks over it's absence in the first release was weak-kneed silliness, as much as the fretting over "120% turnout in Madison" was for the recall."

That's weird, because groaning and eeyoring is usually extremely helpful.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 09, 2012 03:10 PM (lEcZh)

225 "Team Romney is going to attack a vastly larger map than what McCain was desperately trying to win avoid embarrassment and hold in 08."

Hit them everywhere. Obama is weak.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 09, 2012 03:11 PM (lEcZh)

226 "Enjoy that bounce from the convention while you can, President Obama."

The one with Reggie? Yeah, he'll probably be cherishing that one for a while.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 09, 2012 03:12 PM (lEcZh)

227 "The ads and GOTV rollout begins now, and no amount of scale-thumbing by Purely Partisan Polling will be able to deflect a 9-figure onslaught."

Excellent.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 09, 2012 03:12 PM (lEcZh)

228 "Chicago Jesus"

Excellent.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 09, 2012 03:14 PM (lEcZh)

229 I'm not kidding. No way does WI vote for a BEARS Fan over Ryan/Romney.

Posted by: passably affable at September 09, 2012 07:31 PM (fKw58)

230
221 As asurvey methodologist with decades of experience,I'd say to:
Rely on competent analysts with a sense of history (Barone, Caddell, Sabato, Wattenbergfor example - listed in alphabetical order).
Ignore charlatans like538. (Stories based on a very few observationsare not "statistics-based", just hackery, one man's paid opinion.)
Realize that important swings in opinion generally take the elite by surprise. (The Civil Rights revolution; Prop 13 and the Taxpayer Revolt; Reagan's election, as examples.)
Distinguish between "likely voters", reports based on unvalidated models, and "likely electorates" - the relevant concept. (As a rule of thumb, slightly more Republican than a registered voters sample.)
Oh - and, when you see "all" the public polls in a very close range, as they have been recently, realize that this doesn't mean they're all accurate. There's a history ofpollsters (some, not all)looking over their shoulders at each other's reports and adjusting to stay close to the herd.
Meanwhile, I'd urge the Romney campaign to focus on an overall vision for America - a stronger America, renewed, with opportunity for all of us - and less on the daily nits.Getting lost in the weedsis exactly what Obama wants - our advantage is that we reflect American values.

Posted by: Ghost of Frederick Stephan at September 09, 2012 07:36 PM (khZbv)

231 Any time a liberal mentions Nate, I ask how many elections he has called. It shuts them up pretty quick. If they persist, I tell them that a 12 year old could have predicted an Obama win in the last election.

Posted by: DizzyMissL at September 09, 2012 10:10 PM (8S+r3)

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