"Hide the Decline:" Email References to "Hiding" the Decline in Temperatures Might Have Been "Taken Out of Context," But How Do You Explain This?

In t the computer code for these models, the comments to the code acknowledge that changes have been made... in order to hide the decline.

; Plots 24 yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD reconstructions
; of growing season temperatures. Uses “corrected” MXD – but shouldn’t usually
; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures.
;

And:

; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass Esper et al. (2002) series,
; anomalies against full NH temperatures and other series.
; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid
; the decline
;

As George Takei says: "Oh my."

Soooo... we have emails stating that CRU "scientists" are using a "trick" to "hide the decline" in temperatures. The "decline" here refers to a drop in temperates at the end of their simulations, which they don't want in on their hockey-stick graphs, because they always want them to end with the temperature curve pointing upwards -- asymptotically is best.

They have learned the "trick" (which I don't get myself) of adding in a specific series of data -- the real temperature record, but only through 1960 -- to a model based entirely on proxy temperature readings (tree rings and ice cores and so on) and adjusted real-world temperature readings. This data shouldn't be added in -- they've already got their adjusted (i.e., also kinda faked) temperature readings in there. They are adding this one piece of data again, this time in raw form, because it changes how the graph looks at the end, and gives them that sharply-rising flare at the chart's end.

Why not use all real temperature data, through the present day?

Because that doesn't result in the shape of the graph they want.

Why add real temperature data through 1960 in when you've already included "adjusted" versions of that data?

Because if you don't, you don't get the shape of the graph you want.

Why do they want a particular shape of graph? Because these charts aren't being used for science; they're being used for political propaganda. People understand what a sharply-rising line means.

Why are scientists choosing which data to add and not add according to what gives them the results they want?

Because they're not scientists. They are political advocates with some math and science degrees.

This data wasn't put in there because they decided for some odd reason that the real, raw temperature readings (but only through 1960!) should be re-added to the data set. It was put in there because someone did it one time and saw that it would give him the shape of the graph he wanted. And now they're all doing it, though no one is quite able to explain why the hell they are.

Because the real reason is "It gives us the prop we want." There is no other reason.

Aren't scientists supposed to build from observation to conclusion, rather than conclusion to observations? They are cherry-picking which data are supposed significant according to which sets result in the conclusions they've already decided.

Thanks to JackStraw.

Posted by: Ace at 04:54 PM

Comments

(Jump to bottom of comments)

1

Fake but accurate!

Posted by: dan-O at November 23, 2009 04:57 PM (+9Rf8)

2 They're scientists, ace.

You just wouldn't understand.

Posted by: BumperStickerPlover at November 23, 2009 04:57 PM (ruzrP)

3 This story has got to get legs larger than the blogs. This is the death of the global warming cult.

Posted by: Alex at November 23, 2009 04:58 PM (Tr7vq)

4 They're fudging the data to get the desired result.

Because a metric fuckload of euros is at stake.

The fact that they're scientists just means that they're too clever by half, and thus, inclined to insert comments in code and such.

Just ask Columbo about scientists. He'll tell you.

Posted by: BumperStickerPlover at November 23, 2009 05:00 PM (ruzrP)

5
Posted by: Alex at November 23, 2009 04:58 PM (Tr7vq)
i disagree, i think the manmade global warming "debate" will go on as long as the evolutionary theory "debate" has raged on

Posted by: YRM at November 23, 2009 05:00 PM (xNw7B)

6 OT: SarahPalinUSA

Ft Bragg soldiers,
their families supporters: we can't thk u enough for selfless
service to country. Millions of proud Americans honor u

I just like posting that

Posted by: ParisParamus at November 23, 2009 05:00 PM (NPtVh)

7
Posted by: BumperStickerPlover at November 23, 2009 05:00 PM (ruzrP)
Scientists follow their own cults assumptions over common sense and what is looking them in the eye, my gf is about to get her Major on Biology and her worship of Scientists annoys the hell out of me. these are the same people who for years couldn't decide if Pluto was a planet or not

Posted by: YRM at November 23, 2009 05:02 PM (xNw7B)

8 #6: You are probably right. I was working under the assumption of intellectual honesty. How dumb of me!

Posted by: Alex at November 23, 2009 05:03 PM (Tr7vq)

9 A small article in the Sacramento Bee (maybe an AP or other service feed) says that the scientists who wrote the hacked e-mails are saying that the "discovered" information (content of e-mails, etc.)was changed before being disseminated. They continue that this doctored information is now being used to support the heresies and paranoid fantasies of skeptics and global warming deniers.

Posted by: I like it at November 23, 2009 05:03 PM (Zi+FQ)

10 I'm praying the leakers are holding stuff back, the way Breitbart does, in order toget these A-holes to lie and thus inculpate themselves further. Then, BAM!!!! he will whack their peepees.
Whatever they do they will not be able to hide the decline of their own reputations.

Posted by: effinayright at November 23, 2009 05:03 PM (7M8Py)

11
Posted by: Alex at November 23, 2009 05:03 PM (Tr7vq)
right, just like Washington you can't count on Scientists using common sense

Posted by: YRM at November 23, 2009 05:04 PM (xNw7B)

12 Obama's failure to get the Chinese onboard and this may kill it - Inhofe as a Chairman in 2010 and it is done. A nice perp walk for some of these clowns would make a nice visual.

Posted by: Jean at November 23, 2009 05:05 PM (pIKTP)

13 When I was in school, starting with the desired result and going backwards to derive the data was called "dry labbing," and it was considered cheating if a student did it. The scientific nomenklatura appear to think they are exempt from such petty rules. But, as #5 points out, there is a lot of money at stake.

Posted by: ManeiNeko at November 23, 2009 05:05 PM (KPgt9)

14 Because a metric fuckload of euros is at stake.
The imperial fuckload is banned by trade treaty.

Posted by: oblig. at November 23, 2009 05:05 PM (aK/MY)

15 anyone can report how LGF and Charles are reacting to this?

Posted by: YRM at November 23, 2009 05:05 PM (xNw7B)

16 I like this part:

UPDATE2: Commenter Eric at the Climate Audit Mirror site writes:

==== ===== =======

From documents\harris-tree\recon_esper.pro:

; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass Esper et al. (2002) series,
; anomalies against full NH temperatures and other series.
; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid
; the decline
;

Note the wording here “avoid the decline” versus “hide the decline” in the famous email.

Posted by: CUS at November 23, 2009 05:05 PM (wOGfT)

17 I agree this story needs to get beyond the blogs. The New York Times is too ethical to run any story involving stolen papers that don't come from the Pentagon, so they're out. Any ideas how to get more traction here? Other than just going over to globalwarmingcult.com and leaving a bunch of "ha ha you lose" posts?

Posted by: Scott W. Somerville at November 23, 2009 05:06 PM (IcQ5F)

18 They did the same thing with the second hand smoking studies. They had to adjust the statistical confidence ratios in order to show a correclation. But of course it was for a good cause.
Fuck them.

Posted by: LGoPs at November 23, 2009 05:06 PM (v/rEn)

19
Posted by: ManeiNeko at November 23, 2009 05:05 PM (KPgt9)
Scientists follow ethics rules that they learned in their Science classrooms as much as Journalists follow ethics rules they learned in their Journalism classrooms

Posted by: YRM at November 23, 2009 05:07 PM (xNw7B)

20 That's a big point of mine: They aren't using temperature data, they're using temperature spin.

When you step away from actual collected data, you've damn well got to justify any alterations you make, and they not only won't justify it, they won't tell you what adjustments there were.

It's less science than push polling.

Posted by: nickless at November 23, 2009 05:07 PM (MMC8r)

21 Ace, this "hide the decline" bit actually sounds worse than it is. The problem is that the dataset that they were using is a temperature reconstruction based on proxy data. After they apply their smoothing techniques, it turns downward at the end, diverging from the actual measured temperatures. Now, whether or not there are flaws in the surface temperature measurements (I think there is a pretty clear case that there are, and the leaked emails seem to hint that they realize this too), I think they can quite easily explain that they chose to use ACTUAL MEASUREMENTS rather than reconstructions from tree rings or whatever and we lose this argument without ever getting to the real problems.

We need to wisely pick our fights on this. It seems to me that the really damaging stuff is their collusion to hide data, suppress alternative views, tweak data (0.15 to reduce the ocean blip) and destroy emails to avoid FOI requests.

Posted by: DaveS at November 23, 2009 05:07 PM (8ifMA)

22 >>>When I was in school, starting with the desired result and going backwards to derive the data was called "dry labbing," and it was considered cheating if a student did it.

My chemistry teacher referred to it as "adding in the Finaggeler's Constant."

However you spell finaggleer.

Posted by: ace at November 23, 2009 05:07 PM (jlvw3)

23 They're not scientists, they're artificial adjusters.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 23, 2009 05:08 PM (B+qrE)

24
It's a shame the Journal of Irreproducible Results is no longer being published: these guys belong there.

Posted by: Brown Line at November 23, 2009 05:08 PM (VrNoa)

25 Oh, shit!

Posted by: Mr Data with emotion chip turned on at November 23, 2009 05:08 PM (2qU2d)

26 Thanks to JackStraw
I figured he was dead ...
or lost at sea.
Seriously, where's that guy been?

Posted by: Warden at November 23, 2009 05:08 PM (XIQJy)

27 We're just so happy that people are talking about global warming, even if it's brought on by a joke.

Posted by: Cheryl "Stink Finger" Crow at November 23, 2009 05:09 PM (GwPRU)

28 DaveS:

Why only add in the raw data through 1960?

Why add the raw data at all? They are already adding an "adjusted" series of data based on the raw data.

They are adding in this particular superfluous data set to get the shape of the chart they want.

Furthermore, they are deleting emails that discuss doing this, in order to illegally evade FOIA requests.

I am picking my fights. I have picked this one.

Posted by: ace at November 23, 2009 05:09 PM (jlvw3)

29 "A nice perp walk for some of these clowns would make a nice visual."
Yes, especially if it were a walk toward a scaffold, guillotine or fiery pit. If wasting nearly a trillion of the world's wealth isn't deserving of at least a long day roasting on a spit, I don't know what is.

Posted by: effinayright at November 23, 2009 05:10 PM (7M8Py)

30 5...Because a metric fuckload of euros is at stake
We're talking about science here and it is important to be precise.I think the more accurate term is metric fuckton.

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 23, 2009 05:11 PM (s2bW4)

31 @21 That's a big point of mine: They aren't using temperature data, they're using temperature spin.

They have to adjust the data though. Stations use differing data collection techniques, and some experience urban warming etc.... they have to adjust it to get some numbers that are compatible. The problem is that this adds an extra layer of abstraction where there is room to introduce... er, errors. And, my understanding is that they aren't completely upfront about which stations are included, excluded, adjusted, etc., to produce their final datasets, which I think is one of the things McIntyre has been on them about.

Feel free to correct me if I totally misrepresented something.

Posted by: DaveS at November 23, 2009 05:11 PM (8ifMA)

32 8
Posted by: BumperStickerPlover at November 23, 2009 05:00 PM (ruzrP)
Scientists follow their own cults assumptions over common sense and what is looking them in the eye, my gf is about to get her Major on Biology and her worship of Scientists annoys the hell out of me. these are the same people who for years couldn't decide if Pluto was a planet or not
Posted by: YRM at November 23, 2009 05:02 PM (xNw7B)
Pluto was a planet???

Posted by: Mickey Mouse at November 23, 2009 05:11 PM (Vu6sl)

33 ace, #23,
I used to be a chemist, and I much enjoyed the comment of a colleague about an experimentalist whose yields tended always to exceed 90%:
"Yeah, he's kind of a thumb-on-the-balance guy."

Posted by: JPS at November 23, 2009 05:11 PM (Vc5bU)

34 You've heard of insurance adjusters? These guys are data adjusters. And this is their theme song:

http://tinyurl.com/blfqfw

Posted by: ParisParamus at November 23, 2009 05:11 PM (NPtVh)

35 Scientists? Lying suckers of cock.

Posted by: the real joe at November 23, 2009 05:12 PM (AuKbo)

36 You keep using that word - asymptotically - I do not think it means what you think it means. The word you are looking for is 'exponentially'.

Posted by: Jeff M at November 23, 2009 05:12 PM (DWkoI)

37 Sloppy sloppy sloppy, you just can't let your source code fall into the wrong hands. I'm gonna remind all the guys here to stop sending source to each other via e-mail when they get back from Thanksgiving.

Posted by: John Galt at November 23, 2009 05:12 PM (F/4zf)

38 19, nails it. What other policy-shaping "science" has also been so manipulated?
CFCs and the ozone perhaps?

Posted by: Scott J. at November 23, 2009 05:13 PM (NY7mQ)

39 Good story. Good find.
This will not kill the global warming cult. It's a religion. It would be nice for them, if they had scientific proof; but no such thing is required for them to continue to do what it is they do.
Much like if the Shroud of Turin is positively proven to be the genuine article-- many Christians would rejoice, and most atheists would yawn or snicker. Don't ask me about what the Muslims would do, it's too obvious. Such a small number of minds would be changed by such a monumental discovery that thedemographic can be safely ignored.
No, this is not about science; this is about self-hatred of a small number of humans writ large. Like the MSNBC racism story preceding, nearly every leftist position proceeds like this:
1) I hate myself for reason X
2) I'm better than everyone else
3) Therefore, everyone else must be much worse with regards to X than I am
4) I must stop everyone else from doing/thinking/whatever X, even if it means I have to do more of it to make that happen.
Changing the facts of global warming does not change the fact that the global warming cultist hates himself. Therefore, his behavior will change not even a little bit.
On the other hand, it is teabaggingly delicious to be vindicated in my long-held belief that there is no evidence for AGW. You too, I presume.

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2009 05:13 PM (e8YaH)

40 I think they can quite easily explain that they chose to use ACTUAL
MEASUREMENTS rather than reconstructions from tree rings or whatever
and we lose this argument without ever getting to the real problems.

Nope. The divergence is vitally important a) because it shows the proxies are tracking something other than temperature (i.e. if it's wrong now, it could easily have been wrong in the past), and b) even the Hockey Team claims that it never splices real temperature data onto proxy reconstructions.

The f*cking lying shitbags.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2009 05:13 PM (GEBXA)

41

anyone can report how LGF and Charles are reacting to this?

Posted by: YRM at November 23, 2009 05:05 PM (xNw7B)

By My Calendar Creationists !!

Posted by: Charles Johnson at November 23, 2009 05:13 PM (+FzLa)

42 I think the more accurate term is metric fuckton.
...fucktonne.

Posted by: andycanuck at November 23, 2009 05:14 PM (2qU2d)

43 I'm looking for the Left to suddenly embrace the British meanings of words.

For example, take the word "Fix" . There's "fix" in the sense of "to correct or repair" and then there's "fix" in the sense of "hold in one place, to make immovable"

The Downing Street memo provides an example:

The memo had a section that MI6 Head Richard Dearlove that "the intelligence and facts were being fixed [by the U.S.] around the policy" of removing Saddam Hussein
from power, which was taken by the Lefty types to show that US intelligence on Iraq prior
to the war was deliberately falsified, rather than simply mistaken.

Fixing facts around something around a policy is not the same thing as falsifying. You're simply making those pieces axiomatic. They're a given. They're fixed.

Now, nearly five years after this "fixing" of facts came out, the Left will, I'd bet, discover that the Brits - especially the Climate Guy Science Brits - use language differently than us dumb Amurkins.

.

Posted by: BumperStickerPlover at November 23, 2009 05:15 PM (ruzrP)

44 Who is going to nominate Steve McIntrye for a Nobel?

Posted by: Jean at November 23, 2009 05:15 PM (6Njk9)

45 DaveS:

Let me tell you something. When you massage data an awful lot, as pollsters must do (and I don't even mean trying to skew a poll -- I mean adjusting for demographic groups) it's a game of whack a mole. One adjustment tends to create a new problem somewhere else. So you adjust that. Which creates a new problems.

Etc.

The reason for the "divergence" is that they are massaging data so much -- for example, to elminate the Medieval Warm Period. Which they admit in emails -- they are in fact seeking to do.

So an adjustment there causes a problem somewhere else, and fixing that problem causes another one... until... well, they get to the end and now their charts are so massaged they are radically diverging from real temperature records.

So they add in raw temperatures -- through 1960 only! - a data series that has no business being in there (and if it is -- why only through 1960) because doing that gives them the upward slant at graph's end they want.

You know what, DaveS? If their models cannot accurately model CURRENT temperatures, and keep showing a decline where raw termperatures seem to indicate a modest increase, maybe they should work on fixing their models themselves, rather than adding extraneous data sets into them to fix all the problems caused by their constant massaging.

Posted by: ace at November 23, 2009 05:15 PM (jlvw3)

46
Posted by: the real joe at November 23, 2009 05:12 PM (AuKbo)
100% agree
Good story. Good find.
This will not kill the global warming cult. It's a religion. It would be nice for them, if they had scientific proof; but no such thing is required for them to continue to do what it is they do.
Much like if the Shroud of Turin is positively proven to be the
genuine article-- many Christians would rejoice, and most atheists
would yawn or snicker. Don't ask me about what the Muslims would do,
it's too obvious. Such a small number of minds would be changed by
such a monumental discovery that thedemographic can be safely ignored.great analysis, I agree wholeheartedly

Posted by: YRM at November 23, 2009 05:17 PM (xNw7B)

47 this is disturbing:

; It puts the lotion on its skin

; it does this whenever its told

;or else the polar ice caps will melt

; drowning tens of millions of people in the process

;

Oh.My.indeed.

Posted by: BumperStickerPlover at November 23, 2009 05:17 PM (ruzrP)

48 These global warming scientists can go to H-E-double hockey sticks!

Posted by: conscious, but incoherent at November 23, 2009 05:17 PM (Vu6sl)

49 they are massaging data so much
I think that is something behind which we can all get.

Posted by: Mr Data with emotion chip turned on, in more ways than one at November 23, 2009 05:18 PM (2qU2d)

50 So to review.

There has been no warming in 10 years.

The last two years show cooling.

The 90s were not the warmest decade in recent history - that would be the 30s.

The earth was warmer in the medieval ages with no apparent sign of an apocalypse, and only recently recovered from the Little Ice Age.

Global Warming researchers spend much of their time manipulating data to make it fit the graphs they want, trying to censor researchers that disagree with them, and creatively rejecting requests to see their data.

Oh, and we are about to destroy the economy because global warming is beyond question and going to kill us all.

Makes perfect sense IN BIZZARO WORLD.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 23, 2009 05:18 PM (7BU4a)

51 "hide the decline" does not sound worse than it is. The fact is, these supposed "Models" depart radically from observed temperatures in the past few decades (precisely the ones that are supposedly key evidence).

So to get the models to accord with the actual record, they are forced to add goofy shit into them.

Like... um, well, like raw temperature data, when the adjusted data is already in the model, and only, for some bizarre reason, through 1960.

Posted by: ace at November 23, 2009 05:19 PM (jlvw3)

52 They have to adjust
the data though. .... they have to adjust it to get
some numbers that are compatible. The problem is that this adds an
extra layer of abstraction where there is room to introduce... er,
errors.

That's what I'm saying. They aren't taking thermometer readings, they're taking extrapolations and adjustments of thermometer readings, interpolations, wild ass guesses, and eliminating readings they think are 'off' for some reason. That, alone, is a wide enough window for bias or deception.

Add to that the need for results to 'conform' and a system that is pretty much without the oversight that peer review would provide, and anything that comes out of that process is not worth trusting.

Posted by: nickless at November 23, 2009 05:19 PM (MMC8r)

53 DaveS,
I have seen these maneuvers aplenty and until demonstrated otherwise, I believe these criminals simply do the following:
They plug their data into their favorite statistical software program and massage things until they get what they want. We have already seen how the hocky stick is a complete fraud manufactured from an N of ten carefully selected tree rings.
To refute these very damaging revelations, the criminals would have to open their data sets for review. They have been unwilling to do so to this point, with some laughably suggesting that the dog ate their homework and the data is "lost."
Enough. Would anyone here fly on an airplane orlive next to a nuclear reactor contructed with similar methods? Of course not.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 23, 2009 05:20 PM (B+qrE)

54 Via TheDrunkablog:

Update III: The Harry_Read_Me.txt file examined at Devil's Kitchen

You have got to look at this. It is the worst thing yet. The file is ongoing notes about intractable problems with their modeling programs. It's all worthless.

Posted by: Wm T Sherman at November 23, 2009 05:21 PM (w41GQ)

55 The Opocalypse is nigh.

Posted by: Salem at November 23, 2009 05:21 PM (86rbG)

56 Are you questioning the science? Heretics!

<continues hammering round peg into square hole>

Posted by: "Dr." Phil Jones at November 23, 2009 05:22 PM (GEBXA)

57 1) I hate myself for reason X
2) I'm better than everyone else
3) Therefore, everyone else must be much worse with regards to X than I am
4) I must stop everyone else from doing/thinking/whatever X, even if it means I have to do more of it to make that happen.
Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2009 05:13 PM (e8YaH)
Now you tea baggers are hacking my files too! Quick, to the ManBearPig Jet!

Posted by: Al Gore at November 23, 2009 05:22 PM (7BU4a)

58 @Ace:
Why only add in the raw data through 1960?

Why add the raw data at all? They are already adding an "adjusted" series of data based on the raw data.

My understanding is that the data up to 1960 and 1981 are different data sets, and smoothing adds an artificial decline in temperatures. They are padding the end with numbers to allow them to get smoothed trends on the datasets... it seems reasonable to use actual temperature data to do that. Any "actual temperature data" is adjusted... unadjusted data would be useless.

The methodology for those adjustments could significantly impact the surface record and should be under intense scrutiny.

Posted by: DaveS at November 23, 2009 05:23 PM (o4Xc4)

59 Does this mean we can start using our own fossil fuel resources now?

Posted by: Third World Countries at November 23, 2009 05:23 PM (wUD8j)

60 Aren't scientists supposed to build from observation to conclusion, rather than conclusion to observations?

Well, you are supposed to start with a hypothesis. (we're doomed!) Its just that you have to be ready to reject it if the data doesn't support it. (oops, maybe not)

Posted by: toby928 at November 23, 2009 05:23 PM (PD1tk)

61 They are cherry-picking which data

In what way was research conducted a decade ago that "cherrypicked" data? And in what way did the presentation of these data fatally controvert "AGW"?

There was no cherrypicking. The data were presented in such a way to defend the discussion of test results.

In no way do the data even remotely offer knuckleheads their own tendentious uses to declaim AGW.

Not even John Assrocket, who is a mighty, mighty knucklehead.

Posted by: Jacob Javitz at November 23, 2009 05:23 PM (MwCPr)

62 These "scientists" were telling each other to delete incriminating e-mails that may be subject to FOIA requests. That's criminal as is defrauding taxpayers of their tax money. Let the show trials begin.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at November 23, 2009 05:24 PM (GGgoa)

63 Sure glad that George Bush isn't around anymore. "Now we can have REAL science".

Posted by: GarandFan at November 23, 2009 05:24 PM (ZQBnQ)

64 "Conclusions 1st!Observations 2nd!"
The Red Queen, if she were a 'scientist', n' stuff

Posted by: Jones at November 23, 2009 05:24 PM (KOkrW)

65 Bear in mind: The modern era is the ONLY era where we can compare these models to ACTUAL OBSERVED TEMPERATURES.

They don't care much if their records show it was very cold in, oh, say, 900 AD. Who the fuck can check that? Who knows?

What they DO care about is when their models claim that in the only era in which true readings are availble, the temperatures are several degrees away from what we know them to be.

That... sorta looks bad. Makes you doubt the entire model, eh, when the one period you can check the model against observed results shows the model to be...um, utterly wrong.

So they are attempting to "hide" that. They don't want it noted that their models -- without this deus ex machina intervention -- are BADLY WRONG in the one era we can check them against with full confidence.

So they... start adding in essentially RANDOM data, choosing whichever winds up hiding the fact they're going wrong in the modern era. They find one set of data -- raw temperature through 1960 -- and add that in.

The decline is hidden. THe model now "looks" -- but only LOOKS -- okay.

But it only looks that way because they added in superflous, shouldn't-be-in-there data that just happened to manipulate other stuff enough to get the model to match reality (sort of -- close enough for government work, at least).

Posted by: ace at November 23, 2009 05:24 PM (jlvw3)

66 Enough. Would anyone here fly on an airplane orlive next to a nuclear reactor contructed with similar methods? Of course not.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 23, 2009 05:20 PM (B+qrE)
Really, when has that ever caused a problem?

Posted by: ex-Soviet Nuclear Physicist at November 23, 2009 05:25 PM (7BU4a)

67 Global warmism is to science as professional wrestling is to sports.

Posted by: WalrusRex at November 23, 2009 05:25 PM (xxgag)

68 it seems reasonable to use actual temperature data to do that.

No. Splicing of real data onto a proxy is a no-no. Even the Hockey Stick Team agreed (publically) it shouldn't do that.

It certainly shouldn't do it to hide an inconvenient divergence which shows their proxies are crap.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2009 05:26 PM (GEBXA)

69 Here's a link to some goodies from the soon-to-be-infamous Harry_Read_Me.txt file:

http://tinyurl.com/y8obouq

Posted by: Evil Pundit at November 23, 2009 05:27 PM (bka/B)

70 @46 ace: The reason for the "divergence" is that they are massaging data so much
-- for example, to elminate the Medieval Warm Period. Which they admit
in emails -- they are in fact seeking to do.

I think they are two entirely different questions. In this case, the divergence is because the dataset runs out and their smoothing algorithm causes a decline when there are no trailing values... again, that's my understanding.

But you're right, they clearly are trying to minimize the MWP, and deemphasize the differences in "ocean blips" and "land blips" and tweaking variables to make the charts look the way they want them to look. That's why I was suggesting it might be better to focus on those specific instances, rather than the "decline"--I just think they can make a compelling argument to defuse that one at least partially, and media cycles on this will be precious if they exist at all.

Posted by: DaveS at November 23, 2009 05:27 PM (o4Xc4)

71 They had to massage the data thoroughly to guarantee happy ending for the Goracle.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at November 23, 2009 05:28 PM (tf9Ne)

72 The main problem here is that there is no way to be sure what the fucking temperature was before modern gauges were produced. So they have to use tree ring and ice core "proxies" that you can jack around until you get the results you want. Therefore they are basing a .7 deg rise above a historical SWAGed number and then trying to tell us to give up our productivity and money on the assumption that there SWAG is right. As we all know AGW is just a power grab built on garbage.

Posted by: RobD at November 23, 2009 05:28 PM (sV3Dv)

73 Erg is back with a new hash and nick.

And still angling for the AGW Scam for Wealth Redistribution.

Posted by: nickless at November 23, 2009 05:29 PM (MMC8r)

74 69 @Waterhouse

No. Splicing of real data onto a proxy is a no-no. Even the Hockey Stick Team agreed (publically) it shouldn't do that.
Don't confuse my argument for endorsing the technique. I'm just saying that in a media war--which this will become if we are lucky--we don't do any damage, because they can probably make a compelling argument that it is all a misunderstanding of their language.

Posted by: DaveS at November 23, 2009 05:29 PM (o4Xc4)

75 0.000380

Posted by: The Fraction of the Atmosphere that is CO2 at November 23, 2009 05:30 PM (s2bW4)

76 68 Global warmism is to science as professional wrestling Michelle Obama is to sports a beauty pageant.
Posted by: WalrusRex at November 23, 2009 05:25 PM (xxgag)
FIFY

Posted by: conscious, but incoherent at November 23, 2009 05:30 PM (Vu6sl)

77 They were just using proto matter, like on the Genesis planet. Ask Spock, he knows!

Posted by: palin steele at November 23, 2009 05:30 PM (UEEex)

78 If you are deliberately telling your model to put very little weight on some proxies, and much more weight on others -- all to "eliminate" the Medieval Warm Period -- you are going to have problems if it should happen to turn out that the present day's proxies are like the MWP's. In other words, you dialed the "tweaks" on the MWP to show "cool." When the present day's proxies are similar, they will also become "cool," and you don't want that -- you want the MWP cooler than the proxies really show it to be, and the modern era warmer.

So you gotta hide that decline.

Posted by: ace at November 23, 2009 05:31 PM (jlvw3)

79

Anybody happen to know what language or tool that is?

Posted by: dan-O at November 23, 2009 05:31 PM (+9Rf8)

80 A funny Althouse site comment:
Palladian said...
What do you want to bet that when Sullivan returns home at night and puts the beagles to bed, he slips on his CPAP mask and connects the hose to a tank of nitrous oxide, inhales deeply and shrieks "Mommy! Mommy! Baby wants to fuck!" before stuffing a piece of fabric clandestinely cut by a Sullivan operative from one of Palin's returned RNC-funded skirts into his mouth and smacking the shit out of his trembling boyfriend who's unwillingly donning the "costume".
11/23/09 3:36 PM

Posted by: Ichiro Suzuki at November 23, 2009 05:31 PM (P/q7X)

81
Flaming Douche Bag

The charges against Alexandra Kerry have been dropped due to insufficient evidence.

Posted by: a.k.a. at November 23, 2009 05:32 PM (knCw3)

82 The problem is this: their methods are akin to Julia Child cooking a sauce after nipping at the sauterne for a couple of hours.

They know where they're trying to get to, and they'll just toss in a little of this and a little of that and - voila! - out comes a chart that looks like what they want it to look like.

If you start suggesting that maybe the soup was too watery but adding sawdust isn't the right way to thicken it, they'll throw the spoon at you.

The means by which they get their numbers should be wholly public and open to broad discussion, not the province of half a dozen guys sitting around calling everyone else names.

Posted by: mrkwong at November 23, 2009 05:32 PM (G8Eo0)

83 380

Posted by: Parts per Million of CO2 in the Atmosphere at November 23, 2009 05:32 PM (s2bW4)

84 For an extensive history , definition , and use of the word trick , wade through Real Climates spin on this . For shits and giggles , have a peek at this . Keep banging the drum morons , this is huge .

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at November 23, 2009 05:32 PM (vKdhq)

85 Ace is right on the money here. This stuff stinks to a high standard deviation of heaven. And need we remind everyone that these lientists are merely generating models? Not a falsifiable prediction, like how many amperes does it take to generate a voltage of one volt across a resistance of one ohm. Your electrical law can be tested directly. Not this.

Climatology like astronomy is an observational science, and as such cannot be taken as concretely as other sciences. A century ago the best observers and theoreticians argued about whether distant nebulae were in our own galaxy or were galaxies themselves. Until observations proved otherwise one could believe either... the Great Debate between Shapley and Hubble was a debate. Just that. Eventually better observation changed people's minds. But what if entire political arrangements had been based on the obsolete view? Unlikely with astronomy, but with climatology that is what many demand. Already many warming models have proved incorrect... so why demand the entire planet be subject to a new Panopticon of rules and regulations when these models can neither be falsified easily nor have proven correct so far?

This is just an excuse for warmed-over Marxism in a coat of biodegradable green paint.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 23, 2009 05:32 PM (AZGON)

86 I think this is all about the same thing:
My god people, have you just been skipping over everything I've posted from that HARRY_READ_ME.txt file!?!?The data itself is a HUGE unknown, even to the researchers themselves as they attempt to decode what's gone before.Sure, the emails indicate the possibility (and certainty in some cases) of fraud. That one file PROVES HOW UNRELIABLE THE DATA ITSELF IS!!They "lost" the original data?? I believe it now. v2.10 was run with a ****ton of code that was undocumented, made no sense and was FULL of bugs. Is v3.0 better when half the data from 1980 on is SYNTHETIC?!? Or when it used the output from the buggy 2.10 version (which is all they had) to produce NEW data?!?!This is a ****ing joke. The emails are FAR from the most damning thing in this. I can't wait for somebody familiar with the code to start going over it and seeing how many "So we'll just gloss over that entirely ;0)" instances exist.
[h/t Kate at SDA]

Posted by: andycanuck at November 23, 2009 05:33 PM (2qU2d)

87 Piltdown man part 2.

I love it.

Posted by: jharada at November 23, 2009 05:33 PM (C+5K6)

88 In what way was research conducted a decade ago that "cherrypicked" data? And in what way did the presentation of these data fatally controvert "AGW"?
Someboy find me the link on the hockey stick to shut this clown up.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 23, 2009 05:33 PM (B+qrE)

89 It wasn't a "trick-trick".

Posted by: W. Goldberg at November 23, 2009 05:33 PM (SPSOE)

90 68 Global warmism is to science as professional wrestling is to sports.

Posted by: WalrusRex at November 23, 2009 05:25 PM (xxgag)
Well put, and even that is giving a lot to these fools. At least professional wrestling never lobbied to be an Olympic sport, while the global warming lunatics propose that their religion should rule the world.
As an aside, anyone who takes models of complex systems as "proof" of anything deserves exactly the hell that they get. How many econometric models predicted the credit crisis? And econometric models have better brains, more money and a simpler system to model.
These global warming frauds all need to be brought up on charges. They have carried out a true "crime against humanity" in the most literal sense.
As to the argument about data manipulation (smoothing, etc.) any "science" that picks and chooses between data sets, based on some arbitrary context, is totally worthless if not outright destructive. We had the same sort of silliness with valuations of companies, where the geniuses have various models for valuation and pick and choose among them to get the highest valuation possible, but throwing out valuation models that yield ridiculous valuations. There is no standard process for these determinations and they are rendered useless as such.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 23, 2009 05:33 PM (A46hP)

91 As George Takei says: "Oh my."

Howard Stern fan, are we?

Posted by: Otis Criblecoblis at November 23, 2009 05:34 PM (tPZUr)

92 82
They massaged the data and we got a happy ending.

Posted by: polynikes at November 23, 2009 05:32 PM (m2CN7)
Your ending you dirty American pigdog, will not be so happy.
Mine? Oh mine will be delightful.

Posted by: Euro Bureaucrat at November 23, 2009 05:35 PM (7BU4a)

93
The charges against Alexandra Kerry have been dropped due to insufficient evidence.

Posted by: a.k.a. at November 23, 2009 05:32 PM (knCw3)

Laws are only important and need apply if your not a fellow traveler.

Posted by: Blazer at November 23, 2009 05:36 PM (+FzLa)

94 I surprised that the desired results aren't just hard-coded.

Posted by: toby928 at November 23, 2009 05:36 PM (PD1tk)

95 The weather stations collecting the "warming" data have been sited in some *ahem* unusual places, to say the least. Like in the middle of a freaking asphalt parking lot, and next to building exhaust fans.

Check the pic at the link for one of the parking lot locations.

Posted by: TXMarko at November 23, 2009 05:37 PM (48nrr)

96 I hope you all realize you can stop this fraud by buying laptop batteries.

Posted by: Laptop Battery Guy at November 23, 2009 05:37 PM (sLB1w)

97 maybe they should work on fixing their models themselves
They can't. The raw temperature data (what of it hasn't been memory-holed) they could use to run back the clock and kludge their models to match the world is garbage too, pre-poisoned via mis-positioning of temperature stations, etc. There's no information outside the inconvenient ice cores that show high variability independent of human action, and CO2 trailing temperature.
The good news/bad news is that the Consensus has been made up of true enough believers in Warming Forever that they didn't think to poison the temp data in the right way to hide cooling. So now they have a problem.

Posted by: oblig. at November 23, 2009 05:37 PM (aK/MY)

98 Anybody happen to know what language or tool that is?The guys commenting on the HARRY_READ_ME.TXT mention FORTRAN at least once.

Posted by: andycanuck at November 23, 2009 05:37 PM (2qU2d)

99 Found it.
Here, erg.
Choke on it.
http://minx.cc/?post=292910

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 23, 2009 05:38 PM (B+qrE)

100 >> I surprised that the desired results aren't just hard-coded.

int main(int argc, char **argv)
{
printf("Global warming will kill you all!\n");

return 0;
}

Posted by: dan-O at November 23, 2009 05:39 PM (+9Rf8)

101 Posted by: palin steele at November 23, 2009 05:30 PM (UEEex)

sometimes i actually miss that banned racist

Posted by: YRM at November 23, 2009 05:39 PM (xNw7B)

102 Consider this, as well:

These CRU people loathe, LOATHE, the 'deniers.'

All for doubting them.

IOW, the possibility that there is NO warming is absolute heresy.

What if their projections were to show such a thing? Become heretics themselves? They can't, they're committed, admitting no warming would upset their worldview. So they change data, variables, weights, interpretations.

They've lost perspective-- they are totally focused on their predetermined conclusion. They're zealots.

That, on top of everything else, makes them sources not to be trusted.

Posted by: nickless at November 23, 2009 05:40 PM (MMC8r)

103 87
Ace is right on the money here. This stuff stinks to a high standard
deviation of heaven. And need we remind everyone that these lientists
are merely generating models? Not a falsifiable prediction, like how
many amperes does it take to generate a voltage of one volt across a
resistance of one ohm. Your electrical law can be tested directly. Not
this.

Actually, I would argue that their models are falsifiable. They presented a series of projections that showed varying warming trends for the foreseeable future. None showed the cooling trend we are in now.
So, their models have been falsified. I understand on the policy front why this isn't the end of the story, but in real SCIENCE it would be. Your model failed to predict the observed behavior therefore your theory is, at best, incomplete. Come back when you can accurately forecast average temperatures in 10 years, and we will test your analysis again.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 23, 2009 05:40 PM (7BU4a)

104 about 300 - 2500 ppm and higher

Posted by: Range CO2 through the history of life on earth at November 23, 2009 05:41 PM (s2bW4)

105

Come one fellows, we need to let them eat too, they need to be able to make a living, even if it's in the pretend sciences!

Pretending never hurt anybody, they write long emails, so they are good scientists.

I've known a few PhDs that would not object to this behavior at all, they woul dhave to fuckin problem with it, and would love to be the center of attention, and with the awards and grants and notoriety.

They are quislings, Lysenkoites...it's all over the place, you have no idea.

Like I've been saying for a while, a long time, peopl eave no fucking idea how bad it is in the modern University. Not just speech codes and the like, but shit like this...it's all over the place. Lots of money and presitge at stake, and important people to have lunch with other very important effete douchebags.

Posted by: Sen. Rev. Dr. E Buzz at November 23, 2009 05:42 PM (dh7zu)

106 The weather stations collecting the "warming" data
have been sited in some *ahem* unusual places, to say the least. Like
in the middle of a freaking asphalt parking lot, and next to building
exhaust fans.Check the pic at the link for one of the parking lot locations.

Posted by: TXMarko at November 23, 2009 05:37 PM (48nrr)

Yea, funny about that ain't it? I remember seeing a pick awhile back of monitoring equipment placed atop an asphalt roof in direct sunlight right near the exhaust of air exchanger units.

Posted by: Blazer at November 23, 2009 05:42 PM (+FzLa)

107 Come back when you can accurately forecast average temperatures in 10 years, and we will test your analysis again.
10 days, even.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 23, 2009 05:42 PM (B+qrE)

108 Laws are only important and need apply if your not a fellow traveler.

Posted by: Blazer at November 23, 2009 05:36 PM (+FzLa)
You are right about the laws, however, I have to say the roasting all eternity in hell thing is somewhat worse then a few years in club fed.

Posted by: Ted Kennedy's tortured soul at November 23, 2009 05:43 PM (7BU4a)

109 Throwing Rocks at the Moon

Posted by: What lefties should do instead of crapping themselves over man's CO2 contributions at November 23, 2009 05:43 PM (s2bW4)

110 HERETICS!!!

Upon your passing, Mother Gaia (PBUHer) shall be waiting for you at the <s>pearly</s> hemp gates in order to banish you to <s>hell</s> a sporting event.

Posted by: Rev. Herb Patchouli at November 23, 2009 05:43 PM (SPSOE)

111

You know what scares me about pretend science? Just what other stuff have these guys been pretending/lying about to get the desired results and just how many of them work at CERN ?

Posted by: Blazer at November 23, 2009 05:45 PM (+FzLa)

112 I think they can quite easily explain that they chose to use ACTUAL
MEASUREMENTS rather than reconstructions from tree rings or whatever
and we lose this argument without ever getting to the real problems.

Wait, if the actual temperature measurements from recent years doesn't match the treering proxy data for those years, doesn't that deligitimize the use of the treering data from any years?

Posted by: Methos at November 23, 2009 05:46 PM (CoDwG)

113 HERETICS!!!

Upon your passing, Mother Gaia (PBUHer) shall be
waiting for you at her pearly hemp gates in order to banish you to hell a hot dog eating contest.

And which one of you deniers messed up my HTML?!? Mother Gaia is going to put you on double secret probation!

Posted by: Rev. Herb Patchouli at November 23, 2009 05:46 PM (SPSOE)

114 43 / Andycannuck:
I think the more accurate term is metric fuckton.
"...fucktonne."
Good catch, they are, after all, Brits.
Ah, what the hell.
You say fucktonne, I say fuckton. Let's call the whole thing off.

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 23, 2009 05:47 PM (s2bW4)

115 Nice try deniers. The debate is already over.

Posted by: Al Gore at November 23, 2009 05:47 PM (rIbCT)

116 Forgive me if this has already been mentioned, but if you read the e-mails afterward the "hide the decline" one, at least one of the participants seems to have pretty big concerns for the ethics of all of this for something that was merely taken out of context.

In fact, and my memory may be failing me here, but I believe he says something to the effect of "this is a political thing we shouldn't be doing."

Posted by: AD at November 23, 2009 05:48 PM (IvM7z)

117 Just what other stuff have these guys been pretending/lying about to
get the desired results and just how many of them work at CERN ?

No comment.

Posted by: Apollo 11 at November 23, 2009 05:48 PM (SPSOE)

118
@114: Speaking of CERN, they created the first collisions there today.

Posted by: dan-O at November 23, 2009 05:48 PM (+9Rf8)

119 I assume that, even in the epic battle to contrive the slightest evidence of professional malfeasance as the final cosmic controvention of AGW, there are persons here who know that the data were not discarded, omitted, fabricated, but that one climatologist attempted to jazz-up a journal graphic to support a discussion of research.

That's all., And the associated emails demonstrate the very heated debate with colleagues who didn't think that was such a good idea.

That's it.

Posted by: Jacob Javitz at November 23, 2009 05:49 PM (MwCPr)

120 Come back when you can accurately forecast average temperatures in 10 years, and we will test your analysis again.
I'll be encourage if they can model last year's average temps from 10 year old data.

True story, I had a boss years ago who was convinced that he could write a program to predict the markets to the extent that he could trade index option futures (I think). To do this, he ordered all the market info for as far back as possible and wrote an elaborate analysis system. He kept inserting various fudges until it worked for all past time frames. But when he ran if for the future and waited, mostly wrong. Back to the program with another month of data, more fudges, new predictions and again, failure.

This went on for years but he never could get it to work. Large scale systems of near infinite variables are hard to model, duh.

A trend is a trend, until its not.

Posted by: toby928 at November 23, 2009 05:51 PM (PD1tk)

121 >Just what other stuff have these guys been pretending/lying about to
get the desired results and just how many of them work at CERN ?

>No comment.

Posted by: Dak Lak Rak Dak Tak Tak at November 23, 2009 05:51 PM (CoDwG)

122 Though it is most unladylike for me to say this, I would like to takethese climatologists' "hockey sticks" and wrap them around their greedy, dishonest necks.Based onthis farcical, spurious "data" we're supposed to send our economy and lifestyles back to the thirteenth century? I don't think so.
And if you need a really good laugh, how about Pinch Sulzberger, Bill Keller and all the rest ofthose kumquats at the New York Times, refusing to cover any of the contents of these emails because they are " stolen property." Funny it didn't bother the NYT to publish the stolen Pentagon Papers, or stolen intelligence information that put our guys in Iraq in danger.

Posted by: Minnie Rodent at November 23, 2009 05:52 PM (PZLW0)

123 Of course they were using whatever data and models they had to come up with to reach a pre-defined conclusion. It was obvious well before the release of this stuff.

But the much greater question is: Why did they feel the need to say there is global warming? The answer to that question is the end game.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at November 23, 2009 05:52 PM (DIYmd)

124

102 Circa

Ha!!!! I was just looking for that!!!

On a side note......I think Ive got this global warming model code thing figuredout

100 IF <DataSubsetBS>=Incinerate the World
200 THEN <OutPutToGraph>="hockeystick"
300 ELSE<OutPutToGraph> ="hockeystick"
400 REM "note to CRU peers.... I've got that pesky decline thingy covered here, hey its better than redrawing the graph with whiteout and #2 pencil"

500 <END>

Posted by: fixerupper at November 23, 2009 05:53 PM (J5Hcw)

125 Does this mean we can start farting again?

Posted by: All the cows at November 23, 2009 05:53 PM (SPSOE)

126 I would like to say the existence of Global Warming is as sure as the existence of myself. And I would like to further note that the scientific consensus in favor of both of our existence should settle the matter, irrespective of a few, what do you call them? Ah yes, e-mails.

Posted by: Piltdown Man at November 23, 2009 05:54 PM (7BU4a)

127 Erg's not ready to abandon his Church of Redistribution of Wealth yet.

He's drank the kool-aid and is asking for more.

Posted by: nickless at November 23, 2009 05:54 PM (MMC8r)

128 #115 Thread truth winner! Ding Ding Ding!

Posted by: ParisParamus at November 23, 2009 05:54 PM (NPtVh)

129 Does this mean the tour bus will no longer smell of ass?

Posted by: Cheryl Crow's Band at November 23, 2009 05:56 PM (SPSOE)

130 Minnie Rodent

Live or dead ?

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at November 23, 2009 05:56 PM (vKdhq)

131
Does this mean I won't have to become a cannibal after all ?

Posted by: Ted Turner at November 23, 2009 05:58 PM (+FzLa)

132 Erg left to go fill his shinebox with rocks after reading #112. He thinks if he can hit it just right it will pull us a little further from the sun andstop glowball worming.

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 23, 2009 05:59 PM (s2bW4)

133 >>>True story, I had a boss years ago who was convinced that he could write a program to predict the markets to the extent that he could trade index option futures (I think). To do this, he ordered all the market info for as far back as possible and wrote an elaborate analysis system. He kept inserting various fudges until it worked for all past time frames. But when he ran if for the future and waited, mostly wrong. Back to the program with another month of data, more fudges, new predictions and again, failure.

This is a scam that investment-con-artists use. They claim they have a formula that "predicts" -- retroactively - all market moves in the past 100 years.

Um, well of course you do. You know what the market did. It is not hard to write a program which emphasizes certain variables, ignores others, etc., to "predict" what is already known.

In fact, I'm pretty sure this is all automated. Feed in variables and stuff into a program, and it will supply you with an algorithm to "predict" it all.

Doesn't mean it actually predicts into the future. it only "predicts" what already happened, becasue the algorithm was created to do that and only that.

Posted by: ace at November 23, 2009 06:00 PM (jlvw3)

134 380
Posted by: Parts per Million of CO2 in the Atmosphere at November 23, 2009 05:32 PM (s2bW4)
I'm trying help byonly exhaling every third breath.

Posted by: mikeyslaw at November 23, 2009 06:01 PM (QMGr1)

135 They were trying to fix a trend line? How do they 'know' which part of
the trend line is the wrong one? They have absolute faith in their
model when it's doing what they want, but they add in a 'fix' to
eliminate when it's not.

Their pre-assumption is hotter. Anything to the contrary? Kill it.

The irony is the 'wrong' part of their projections is the one that is becoming reality.

Posted by: nickless at November 23, 2009 06:03 PM (MMC8r)

136 137 "I'm trying help byonly exhaling every third breath"
Don't forget to throw a few rocks at the moon tonight too!

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 23, 2009 06:03 PM (s2bW4)

137 Think about the Left's approach to "all" - the ends justify the means. Anything, virtually anything, done (the means) justifies the results (ends), "our betters", deem optimal, for animal, mineral, and vegetable.
In the aristocracy's or totalitarian's (Communist/Marxist/Socialist) view, they are the chosen, the annoited; when all others are relegated to a meager existence, they alone, deserve their (priviledged) dachas.

Posted by: MDr at November 23, 2009 06:03 PM (ucq49)

138 Hey Al!

We are are sending you a self-addressed stamped box. Please place your trophy in there and drop it in you local mailbox.

Posted by: The Oscar Committee at November 23, 2009 06:04 PM (SPSOE)

139 Dan-O, It is mostly FORTRAN with plotting by IDL, though some Matlab routines are also used. Yeah, exactly. So instead of
int main(int argc, char **argv){ printf("Global warming will kill you all!\n"); return 0;}
it's more like
program weknowbest
IF (warmenist.gt.0) THEN
nuance = express_doubt(real_data)
ELSE
GOTO canned_results

Posted by: motionview at November 23, 2009 06:05 PM (is1tF)

140 "anyone can report how LGF and Charles are reacting to this?"
I just HAD to stop by and take a peek.
Ok, I'm the sort who will slow down to look at a car wreck, too.
CJ is DEFENDING the Alarmist liars.
'Nuf said.

Posted by: Lazarus Long at November 23, 2009 06:07 PM (RbtXl)

141 I'm trying help byonly exhaling every third breath.
That's what happened to Mark Mangino.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 23, 2009 06:07 PM (B+qrE)

142 In Berlin I said,

This is the moment when we must come together to save this planet. Let
us resolve that we will not leave our children a world where the oceans
rise and famine spreads and terrible storms devastate our lands.

Suck it, Moses! Am I good or what!?

Posted by: B. Obama at November 23, 2009 06:08 PM (SPSOE)

143
A SERVER WAS HACKED DAMIT

Posted by: Charles Johnson at November 23, 2009 06:09 PM (jvrmc)

144 From above comment link about comments in the code:
The bit that made me laugh was this bit. Anyone into programming will burst out laughing before the table of numbers
OK... that much is true. They wrapped the size limits on the variable.
I lol'd.

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 06:10 PM (cok/k)

145 motionview @ 142: Are you sure? I don't use fortran a lot, but I've never seen semicolons for comments. And I use matlab and have never seen that either

Posted by: dan-O at November 23, 2009 06:11 PM (+9Rf8)

146 @133 - Bill D. Cat
AGW - dead.
Manbearpig - dead, roasted over a bonfire. (Using up some carbon credits, here)
CRU Climate Study Grant Money - dead.
NYT - dead, after their Chilean or Chinese or whatever sugar daddy loses patience and cuts off the emergency funds.

Posted by: Minnie Rodent at November 23, 2009 06:12 PM (PZLW0)

147 From above comment link about comments in the code:
The bit that made me laugh was this bit. Anyone into programming will burst out laughing before the table of numbers
OK... that much is true. They wrapped the size limits on the variable.
I lol'd.

This is not just a smart military blog--it's a nerdy coder blog, too.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 23, 2009 06:13 PM (B+qrE)

148 Oh, nevermind, that is IDL I guess

Posted by: dan-O at November 23, 2009 06:13 PM (+9Rf8)

149 They should have hired me for the programming. I almost never put comments in, especially not really stupid ones like that.
This just goes to show you that documentation kills.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 23, 2009 06:15 PM (A46hP)

150 Enough. Would anyone here fly on an airplane orlive next to a nuclear reactor contructed with similar methods? Of course not.

Come fly with us, tovarisch. Soviet Russian air travel very safe. Our pilots forbidden to drink within 24 feet of airplane.

Posted by: Aeoroflot at November 23, 2009 06:15 PM (l1Wlr)

151

The oceans are too rising wing-nuts !

I have to keep moving my mattress underneath the Santa Monica pier farther away from the waterline every month !

Posted by: Charles Johnson at November 23, 2009 06:16 PM (+FzLa)

152 I find the code is entirely nontroversial and I'm a web programmer, damn it!

Posted by: Charles Johnson at November 23, 2009 06:21 PM (CRUyl)

153 Look away from those e-mails. They are forbidden!!!
The ritual updinging of my comments may now resumeas usual.

Posted by: The Lizard King at November 23, 2009 06:21 PM (QKKT0)

154 @149 - Minnie Rodent ,

Lotta big dead animals .

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at November 23, 2009 06:22 PM (vKdhq)

155 If only the decline in warming were true http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Damn, knuckleheads. Damn.

Posted by: Jacob Javitz at November 23, 2009 06:22 PM (MwCPr)

156 Aren't scientists supposed to build from observation to conclusion,
rather than conclusion to observations? They are cherry-picking which
data are supposed significant according to which sets result in the
conclusions they've already decided.

I think that is right on.

I remember from high school chem when some kids would change the data they received to fit pre-conceived notions about what the results should be. It looks like they grew up to become AGW scientists. Back then, it was just fudging data so that the h20 concentration in tomatoes was 80% and not the more-difficult-to-believe 95%.

We all do it to some degree; it's like a "fact check" to see if it fits with broader theory. It sometimes leads to very erroneous conclusions. Like geocentric theory, when the planets supposedly followed crazy patterns in order to fit with the pre-conceived notion of an earth-centered solar system.

So unless DaveS is correct about a glitch in the graphing (which I've seen before due to a computer fitting the curve to a certain pattern it chooses)... at best, they are doing bad science in order to "make their results look better to the teacher". Worst, they are playing an active role in a global scam.

Posted by: A.G. at November 23, 2009 06:23 PM (jBPzC)

157 According to SNL, who featured Algore to promote his book, unless we promote his greed global warming ideas, we are doomed. Doomed I tell ya. Doomed.

But SNL also had a funny stupid ad about the movie 2012 featuring, you guessed it, Sarah Palin in the 2012 election for president.

I guess when you are radical left-tards, you don't know if 2012 is the end of the world, it will Obama fault. Since she will not be in office till Jan 13. But leftards do not deal in reality. Just lies and realy stupid ideas.

Posted by: hous bin pharteen at November 23, 2009 06:24 PM (pU4D7)

158 I'll bet there are some really entertaining meetings going on at the editorial offices of Scientific American right now! They have at least one, and usually several,politically correct commentaries in every issue, but I'll bet the commentary on this one is "muted".
If you want to see a good institution gone bad, SciAm is a perfect example.Near the end ofthe last Presidential campaign, theyfeatured an analysis by someonethat "proved" that during such and such time period, the percentage of non-positive media articles on Obama was higher than those on McCain, thereby proving that the media was not biased in the election.
If you didn't pay attention to the time period cited, that sounded impressive. But if you checked like I did, you found that the time period was from months earlier, before the nominees were picked, when the media was pulling for McCain and Hillary! Theyused it as ifwas a head-to-head McCain coverage vs. Obama coverage comparison, but it was actually the coverage of McCain vs. any conservative, compared to the coverage of Hillary! vs Obama, when she was still "inevitable"!
They cannot be trusted on any subject that is even slightly politically sensitive, IMHO, and since they are loading up the mag with more and more of that, it is rapidly evolving into a psuedo-science propaganda rag. They love to talk about anyone else's "psuedo-science" by the way, their favorite of course being Christian fundies, by they are in fact bending sciencetotheir religious beliefsevery bit as much.

Posted by: sherlock at November 23, 2009 06:26 PM (xqzGc)

159 printf("Global warming will kill you all!\n");
That's not even FORTRAN! (Is it?)
That's C.
I've never dicked with FORTRAN ever.
I wonder if I'd be able to read any of it without creating a giant project for myself....

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 06:26 PM (cok/k)

160 What we've got here is the Wizard of CRU.

They are not crooks, or at least they didn't intend to be.

They're amateurs. They're making it up as they go along.

There wouldn't be anything wrong with that if they weren't trying to dictate policy from behind a facade of infallibility.

Posted by: mrkwong at November 23, 2009 06:26 PM (G8Eo0)

161 .........and what the hell happened to the next ice age? Does it not scare people enough to make money off of?

Here is an idea. Travel coach you damn, dishonest, creep.

Posted by: hous bin pharteen at November 23, 2009 06:27 PM (pU4D7)

162
A.G.

once they accepted that first dollar of grant money it became a scam.

Posted by: bulwark at November 23, 2009 06:27 PM (jvrmc)

163 "Hide the decline" sounds a lot like "hide the salami", except no lubricant.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at November 23, 2009 06:28 PM (GGgoa)

164 This is the reason I have always thought of those fucktards in Priuses to be fools....Drill baby, Drill...

Posted by: TheGarbone at November 23, 2009 06:28 PM (DpCj+)

165 I wonder if anyone has asked the alGore about this yet?

Posted by: trainer at November 23, 2009 06:30 PM (yCWYQ)

166 If only the decline in warming were true http://data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ graphs/

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

You're peddling Hansen's garbage?

Go do your homework and come back when you've found a trustworthy data source.

Posted by: mrkwong at November 23, 2009 06:30 PM (G8Eo0)

167
Does this mean I can get off the couch with Nancy now ?

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at November 23, 2009 06:30 PM (+FzLa)

168 "Why only add in the raw data through 1960?"

I believe something was added to years after 1960 in order to "hide the decline."

Posted by: Bilby at November 23, 2009 06:32 PM (wJMxW)

169 Bakken, baby!

Posted by: TexasJew at November 23, 2009 06:33 PM (dcKUM)

170 Hey Charlie, buddy. Take a big slobbery lick of my nasty globally warmed ass!

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at November 23, 2009 06:34 PM (sfc/A)

171 I admit linking to the communist organization NASA.

Posted by: Jacob Javitz at November 23, 2009 06:34 PM (MwCPr)

172 NASA GISS data... Nope. Fail.
Search "nasa giss data error"... then go throw rocks at the moon.

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 23, 2009 06:34 PM (s2bW4)

173 "Hide the decline" sounds a lot like "hide the salami", except no lubricant.
Posted by: Dr. Spank at November 23, 2009 06:28 PM (GGgoa)
Lubricant? Does that work?

Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at November 23, 2009 06:34 PM (QKKT0)

174 Does this mean I can get off the couch with Nancy now ? Posted by: Newt Gingrich

Only if you stay in the doghouse.

Posted by: Iskandar at November 23, 2009 06:35 PM (u1pln)

175
Hide the decline ?

I like to play "Hide the Al Glines"

Posted by: Allen Glines Wife at November 23, 2009 06:35 PM (+FzLa)

176 176
"Hide the decline" sounds a lot like "hide the salami", except no lubricant.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at November 23, 2009 06:28 PM (GGgoa)
Lubricant? Does that work?Oh My!!!

Posted by: George Takei at November 23, 2009 06:36 PM (DrB2V)

177

"I'll bet there are some really entertaining meetings going on at the editorial offices of Scientific American right
now! They have at least one, and usually several,politically correct
commentaries in every issue, but I'll bet the commentary on this one is
"muted"."

You meant to say "ignored".

And consequently, there will be a focus on protecting data, especially data such as this, which was so sensitive, and important to large grants and research junkets.

These people are such assholes.

Posted by: Rev. Dr. E. Buzz Miller at November 23, 2009 06:37 PM (CHf6r)

178 Hey Newt - kiss my corona, bitch!

Posted by: The Sun at November 23, 2009 06:37 PM (dcKUM)

179 "Because they're not scientists. They are political advocates with some math and science degrees."

I'll do you one better here, Ace, to make it timely.

They're investors putting out a false prospectus to solicit funds. In some industries that would be a crime. Political activism is considered acceptable and people will complain yet accept it because it's just a "game." Fraud, however, isn't.

These actors have committed not just intellectual/academic fraud but also financial fraud.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at November 23, 2009 06:38 PM (3nPNg)

180 161

Not only "Scientific American" but "National Geographic". NG used to be my favorite magazine until it drove off the cliff.

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at November 23, 2009 06:38 PM (sfc/A)

181 You guys should watch the History Channel. I know you guys are thinking I am a fool, but it has a story about planning for the first one with Homeland Security and local fire companies response teams. They talk about people fleeing to West Virginia after the attack on DC. They describe how you go from having a family diner of 4 one night, to having 400 people as guests.

Posted by: hous bin pharteen at November 23, 2009 06:39 PM (pU4D7)

182 @119 "at least one of the participants seems to have pretty big concerns for
the ethics of all of this for something that was merely taken out of
context."

That kind of lends credence to the "disaffected whistle-blower" theory of how this info got leaked, duznit? As opposed to "the boo-hoo we were unethically hacked by evil deniers" story, I mean.

Posted by: Stoop Davy Dave at November 23, 2009 06:39 PM (/jrA8)

183 Even I couldn't pull off this shit.

Posted by: The Piltdown Man at November 23, 2009 06:40 PM (dcKUM)

184

Except for the conspiracy aspects of the contents of FOIA2009.zip, exactly why was all this stuff secret in the first place ?

Likewise, if the part of the theory that says this was put
together as part of the review to Steve McIntyre's FOIA request (last
email was Nov 12, 2009), exactly what contained with FOIA2009.zip,
aside from the embarrassing conspiracy perpetrated by CRU employees,
were the CRU officials trying to protect by denying the request on Nov.
13, 2009.

Finally, the legal department of CRU found nothing strange reading
this material that obviously reveals many unethical, if not illegal,
acts by CRU employees ?

Posted by: Neo at November 23, 2009 06:40 PM (tE8FB)

185 Ace, the auumption you are making for rhetorical effect is that these 'scientists' are in fact worried at all about the scientific method. They sold their soul back around 1974 to whatever alarmist cult of the day was the soup du jour in moonbat ville so long as the bats were slinging grants and block funding to their alma mater. Global famine, warming, cooling, warming, killer bees, meteor strikes, peak oil, peak water all of these doom cults have one thing in common there is nothing positive ever put on the balance sheet when the calculus is ran, and all of the issues coincidentally require the exact same solution-the finishing off of the COMIntern's work from circa '36-'50 in the form of strangling th4e American consumer spirit and economic growth.....

there is not a single hysteria that does not have as its 'solution' spend a lot of federal money, squash a business, trust in your bueracratic overlords and be happy.
The forgotten part of Ike's farewell was the warning about:
"In this revolution, research has become central; it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.
Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.
The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present

and is gravely to be regarded.
Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientifictechnological elite.
It is the task of statesmanship to mold, to balance, and to integrate these and other forces, new and old, within the principles of our democratic system -- ever aiming toward the supreme goals of our free society. "
Ike had an instinctive grasp of the disparate and competing forces tugging at our collective freedom because he ran a herd of cats through the ETO in ww2.....
Hippies love the phrase 'military-industrial complex" because their attention span is too short to realize he made a damning indictment of their games in academia and the science academy.

Posted by: sven10077 at November 23, 2009 06:43 PM (Il89O)

186 183 Iamnotanalcoholic Racist anti-Irishman!!!! I think the people from NG mag was texting a message and they didn't see the road signs telling them to turn right. Instead they turned left, ran through the guard rail, and screamed WWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

Posted by: hous bin pharteen at November 23, 2009 06:44 PM (pU4D7)

187 sherlock @161
Meh. SciAm. I had to quit reading that crap ten years ago. Way, way PC.

136 >>>True story, I had a boss years ago who was convinced that he could write a program to predict the markets to the extent that he could trade index option futures... But when he ran if for the future and waited, mostly wrong. Back to the program with another month of data, more fudges, new predictions and again, failure.
...
This is a scam that investment-con-artists use. They claim they have a formula that "predicts" -- retroactively - all market moves in the past 100 years.

You know what the market did. It is not hard to write a program which emphasizes certain variables, ignores others, etc., to "predict" what is already known.
...
Doesn't mean it actually predicts into the future. it only "predicts" what already happened, becasue the algorithm was created to do that and only that.

Exactly. At least an observational science like astronomy can point to a "ladder of distances" to establish scale in the universe, and that ladder does indeed adjust as new knowledge arises... presumably most astronomers would not swear that the current state of knowledge is set immutably. Far from it. Only ten or fifteen years ago, the state of astronomical knowledge about the universe entirely missed dark energy, which according to contemporary cosmology makes up about two thirds of the entire mass-energy of the universe. Two thirds. Completely unimagined less than a generation ago. And the recently discovered acceleration of the universe's expansion entirely inverts the standard, rationally accepted, "consensus" point of view that prevailed back in the 1980s, that the universe would likely slow expansion, and contract again to a Big Crunch.

Think of that. Just a couple of new observations made in the last decade or two have utterly upended the "consensus" view of the fate of the universe from Big Crunch to Big Rip or endless expansion.

Back to the subject at hand... climate. These "lientists" have the nerve to demand we restructure the global economy and live under dictatorial rule regarding all human activity that even so much as produces a whiff of fucking carbon dioxide, when the simplest new observations could prove them entirely wrong? And their predictions concern a system extremely nonlinear, with variables orders of magnitude larger in number than in something like astronomy? And far more subject to uncertainties and misinterpretation?

How anyone could have fallen for this crap, even ten years ago, is astonishing. The deliberate deceit revealed in these memos and computer code is just icing on the cake.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 23, 2009 06:45 PM (AZGON)

188 Am I feeling a little hot to you?

Posted by: The Earth's Core at November 23, 2009 06:46 PM (dcKUM)

189 Hide the Decline:
in temperatures
in jobs
in the value of our dollar
in Obama's ratings
in transparency and truth in govt.

Posted by: Biggest Loser at November 23, 2009 06:46 PM (gSxol)

190 If Ace would just swallow, his pride, I would be happy to explain all of these complex issues.

Posted by: Charles Johnson at November 23, 2009 06:48 PM (gSxol)

191 Well I guess it would depend on how drunk you were when you read it.

Posted by: bill-tb at November 23, 2009 06:48 PM (iiiMw)

192 @159 A.G

So unless DaveS is correct about a glitch in the
graphing (which I've seen before due to a computer fitting the curve to
a certain pattern it chooses)... at best, they are doing bad science in
order to "make their results look better to the teacher". Worst, they
are playing an active role in a global scam.

Again, I want to be clear... I think they are doing both. My difference on this is simply a matter of which battles are think are more likely to be winners in a media tit-for-tat on the matter. From the get go, focus has been on the "trick" to "hide the decline", allowing the perpetrators to provide a somewhat reasonable sounding explanation (which most people won't understand or care to understand at all), and allowing them to avoid any discussion whatsoever of the fact that they were trying to have editors fired, making up adjustments to make the charts look right in their mind, deleting emails, etc.

Posted by: DaveS at November 23, 2009 06:48 PM (2hTlI)

193 Finally, the legal department of CRU found nothing strange reading this material that obviously reveals many unethical, if not illegal, acts by CRU employees ?

You're talking about lawyers, right? 'Nuff said.

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at November 23, 2009 06:48 PM (sfc/A)

194 I liked this comment from one of their programmer's emails:

As far as I can see, this renders the station counts totally meaningless. It also means that we cannot say exactly how the gridded data is arrived at from a statistical perspective - since we're using an off-the-shelf product that isn't documented sufficiently to say that.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at November 23, 2009 06:49 PM (DIYmd)

195 I'm already involved in a nasty discussion about this on JREF.

Posted by: Sparky at November 23, 2009 06:50 PM (3LSsS)

196 >>>I remember from high school chem when some kids would change the data they received to fit pre-conceived notions about what the results should be. It looks like they grew up to become AGW scientists. Back then, it was just fudging data so that the h20 concentration in tomatoes was 80% and not the more-difficult-to-believe 95%.

And the system of falsifying data worked wonderfully for me, until the big lab in AP Chemistry, where I was supposed to measure various values for chemicals *without knowing what those chemicals were and therefore what the right answers were."

And, at that time, I sort of learned my lab skills had... um, not developed adequately during my years of faking data.

Go figure.

Posted by: ace at November 23, 2009 06:50 PM (jlvw3)

197 I admit linking to the communist organization NASA. raving lunatic "Dr." James Hansen's heavily-manipulated data.

FTFY, you mushheaded clown.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2009 06:52 PM (8JpXN)

198 Withany data set, large or small,it's possible to fit an arbitrary function that describes the data set accurately, put can't predict anything outside of the data set.

Posted by: Wm T Sherman at November 23, 2009 06:52 PM (w41GQ)

199 And, at that time, I sort of learned my lab skills had... um, not developed adequately during my years of faking data.

Go figure.

You just needed to cheat harder. Idiot.

Posted by: Michael Mann at November 23, 2009 06:53 PM (GGgoa)

200 Three little words: "FOLLOW THE MONEY." Those that are getting, or will get the money, are the ones that need to be researched themselves as to why they chose this path. Even they know its a false trail.

Posted by: mystry at November 23, 2009 06:53 PM (kmgIE)

201 //11/23/09 -- ENTROPY
//This is a comment I wrote to comment on stuff.
#INCLUDEsnark.h
Int Main{
//I'm quoting this bit to reply to it later
They should have hired me for the programming. I almost never put comments in, especially not really stupid ones like that.
This just goes to show you that documentation kills.
Exactly! // my reply
I always hated to have to comment on the obvious just to have comments, at any rate. // here I am musing
For instance:
//created this check to preventupper boundserrors //created that comment to explain the file you asked for more comments on
if(xarg <= LIMIT_VAL){ //checking to see if xarg is less then limit, then proceed
Return 1;
}Else{ // if it's not
xarg = LIMIT_VAL; //limiting it. WTF did you think?
Return 1;
}//endif
return 0; //dunnoWTF that would even happen so let's fail it justin case
}//end of comment

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 06:55 PM (cok/k)

202 You just needed to cheat harder. Idiot.

It's not cheating unless you get caught ........

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at November 23, 2009 06:56 PM (vKdhq)

203

Offtopic, but awesome... Check this out:

A live webcam of the CERN large hadron collider. It is pretty cool, check it out.

Posted by: dan-O at November 23, 2009 06:56 PM (+9Rf8)

204 Why do people believe that computers cannot lie. the same thing applies to programs that can "change the vote" in voting computers. As the blue dogs says."See the numbers for yourself, numbers do not lie." People are stupid to believe this C***. Most will!

Posted by: mystry at November 23, 2009 06:59 PM (kmgIE)

205 Back then, it was just fudging data so that the h20 concentration in tomatoes was 80% and not the more-difficult-to-believe 95%.
So the teacher hacked your data. As far as I'm concerned, then, tomatoes are 80% H20.

Posted by: Charles "the friendly" Johnson at November 23, 2009 06:59 PM (sfc/A)

206 Right, and when scientists say they are going to "pressure journals" not to publish certain heretics other scientists, they mean...oops, sorry, they do mean they're trying to suppress the truth.

Posted by: PJ at November 23, 2009 07:00 PM (Qpxxz)

207 In my recent interview, quoted extensively at LGF, I proved my innocence by giving the reasons that I am innocent. Just like Michael Mann did.

Posted by: Charles Manson at November 23, 2009 07:05 PM (w41GQ)

208 #206: LOL

Posted by: ParisParamus at November 23, 2009 07:07 PM (NPtVh)

209 How come that bastard gets to use east asian fonts in his comments but mine get turned into goddamn wingdings?
o‚½‚ç–Ú!

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 07:09 PM (cok/k)

210 158If only the decline in warming were true http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Damn, knuckleheads. Damn.
Posted by: Jacob Javitz at November 23, 2009 06:22 PM (MwCPr)
And at this site we find: Please address questions about the figures to Dr. Sato or to Dr. James Hansen.
Damn, knuckelhead. Just, damn.

Posted by: Charles Manson at November 23, 2009 07:12 PM (w41GQ)

211 Its not a lie, if you believe it.

Posted by: george costanza at November 23, 2009 07:19 PM (PD1tk)

212 "Ace, this "hide the decline" bit actually sounds worse than it is. The
problem is that the dataset that they were using is a temperature
reconstruction based on proxy data. After they apply their smoothing
techniques, it turns downward at the end, diverging from the actual
measured temperatures."

let's make up data

Posted by: newrouter at November 23, 2009 07:22 PM (bEZJ+)

213 S Weasel points out something that is wierd in these emails... they all seem to know each other, by first name. All the warmy scientists around the world. Its like a tight knit family of zealots. Sort of Fred Phelphsy, as it were.

Posted by: Christopher taylor at November 23, 2009 07:35 PM (PQY7w)

214 It's always been known that the scientific gang has always been a tight group. They will try to push out anyone who is a radical to their way of "Seeing" things. They are the worse group when it comes acceptance. They meet each other all the time at many functions. ( that they do not have to pay for.)

Posted by: mystry at November 23, 2009 07:44 PM (kmgIE)

215 Honestly who cares about the hacked e-mails? There is a larger issue that needs to be debated regarding "climate change".
Anyone that believes that a possibletemperature increase of3/4 of a degree50years from now represents an end timesdisasterscenario is just shit nuts. Furthermore, anyone whoclaims that this potentially mild and gradual increase should justifydraconian population controls, economy killing emissions reductions,and the commitment of trillions of dollarsto "combat" is too stupid to even debate.

Posted by: Dirk Diggler at November 23, 2009 07:44 PM (OUCeT)

216 Scientists Caught with Pants Down on Climate Change Edition of Cheaters TV Show: http://tinyurl.com/ykf2aue

Posted by: Melvin Winter at November 23, 2009 07:45 PM (uk5lh)

217 And, great, that glasses asshole thinks they were framed! Listen glasses, the guy's admitted that they're real, already. Duh.

Posted by: andycanuck at November 23, 2009 07:47 PM (2qU2d)

218 I don't recognize that programming language.

Posted by: Gerry at November 23, 2009 07:55 PM (cSBta)

219 If only the decline in warming were true

Oh, dear. You really must see how the GISS data is "produced." It certainly isn't by measurement:
http://tinyurl.com/yamntu9

AGW has always been a joke. As many here have pointed out, the models are all junk because they can't take historical climate data and "predict" known data from following years (eg, loading in measurements from the 1940s and getting the correct results for 1960s).

And of course there is the fact that their fundamental underlying hypothesis is provably wrong. They say small changes in the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere cause by human activities result in huge, global weather effects. However, ice core data has shown the CO2 level in the atmosphere in the past to have been 6 to 20 times higher than now (the increase sometimes taking place in as little as 30 years), without any of their doomsday scenarios occurring. No further argument against AGW is necessary.

Posted by: Flubber at November 23, 2009 07:58 PM (VL5if)

220 Since 1998 the global temperature has reduced, although some say its still getting warmer and some claim it's "plateaued" so it is exactly the same as it was in 1998. Sorry guys. Cooler = cooler, no matter how much you stamp your foot and grit your teeth.

And that data which shows the oceans (and the atmosphere) are cooler than the land? That sort of proves the claim that all the temperature stations are near roads and in cities, thus giving false reads.

Whatever warming there was (and it strongly appears that it was much less then the warmies claimed it was), it ended and wasn't dangerous to begin with. Your house of cards is falling to pieces.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to find this happening with other long held, dearly loved, and "consensus" theories in the near future.

Posted by: Christopher taylor at November 23, 2009 08:06 PM (PQY7w)

221 Read the e-mails!

Read the e-mails!

Posted by: urgh at November 23, 2009 08:11 PM (I3Udb)

222 In what way was research conducted a decade ago that "cherrypicked"
data? And in what way did the presentation of these data fatally
controvert "AGW"?There was no cherrypicking. The data were presented in such a way to defend the discussion of test results.

Try reading Loehle's reconstruction of the hockey stick model without the tree ring proxies or, more recently Steve McIntyre's debunking of Briffa's Yamal tree ring reconstruction.

Posted by: Reiver at November 23, 2009 08:29 PM (pGNeB)

223 Read the discount e-mails!

Read the discount e-mails!

Posted by: urgh boots at November 23, 2009 08:33 PM (I3Udb)

224 So uh... you come here often?

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 08:38 PM (cok/k)

225 Doh. Wrong thread.

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 08:38 PM (cok/k)

226 #222: I don't recognize that programming language.

Posted by: Gerry at November 23, 2009 07:55 PM (cSBta)

qbasic from microsoft uses semicolons the way real scripting languages use octothorpes.

Posted by: The Dread Pirate Neck Beard at November 23, 2009 08:42 PM (T3UbD)

227 I wouldn't be at all surprised to find this happening with other long held, dearly loved, and "consensus" theories in the near future.
It's been happening in the field of Anthropology for quite some time.The migration of Early Americans from Asia to America is wild guesswork based on ancient pieces of broken spear pointsand small fragments of human bones.

Posted by: Alex's Cabin at November 23, 2009 08:49 PM (wUD8j)

228 They know what it is at Climate Audit. And what I gathered from there was that these reconstructions are built the same way -- all tree-ring guesswork and other proxies from whenever to 1880 or so. Then a mix of tree-ring guesses, other proxies,and surface measurements from then until 1960. And after 1960 no trees to be found, because the trees all show declining temperatures while the other records show warming.
Without the trees, the MWP is still present and the current warming is no big deal. The trees are absolutely vital to their entire scheme**. But they know that the trees do not show the recent warming well. So they include the bit that hides MWP, and don't include the bit that indicates they don't have a 100% grasp of what is actually going on with the tree rings.
Briffa (he's in the emails) was praised (by the other guys in the emails) for his Yamal calculations -- because they are the only modern tree series to show the current warming. But even that required a LOT of fudging -- take away ONE TREE and the whole thing falls apart. Yamal in the last part of the 20th Cent is pretty much only based on fewer trees than would make up one side of a football play, so this is the same as saying the whole result depends on 10% of the sample. That's indicative of a weighting problem. Another indication the Yamal series is crap is that it apparently doesn't match the local temperature records. This is where the AGW's true pseudoscientific roots are clearly exposed -- look up the concept of tele-connection and tell me that isn't a load of crap along the lines of phrenology and Chariot of the Gods bullshit. Yamal's trees are apparently attuned via tele-connection to the rest of the world's trees more than they are to their own local conditions.
Polar Urals, which is a much better sampling with many more trees, does not show either a hockey stick or a complete disconnect from local conditions. Oddly enough, same guys were involved I think.But no hockey stick means no interest in pursuing the data.
Go to Climate Audit, they get into mind-numbing detail over there on all of this stuff.

**There is one other thing that shows a hockey stick with no MWP -- lake sediments from Finland. However, the only way this works is if you TURN IT UPSIDE DOWN (!!!!!) and ignore the authors' warning that the last half of the 20th century is bogus due to construction and other human activity that mucked with the sediment. While one of the release emails indicates the 'team' was aware of this error, there has been absolutely no correction or retraction with regards to this mistake.

Posted by: The Atom Bomb of Loving Kindness at November 23, 2009 08:55 PM (CnrIa)

229 I fee like I'm getting fucked like that poor chicken.

Posted by: The Data at November 23, 2009 09:10 PM (qtl62)

230 Why do people believe that computers cannot lie.

Beats me.

Posted by: HAL at November 23, 2009 09:11 PM (4iIhs)

231 The ice is NOT gonna break!

Posted by: Johnny Smith's Mulligan at November 23, 2009 09:21 PM (Vz1WE)

232 burberry scarf | CD Keys

Posted by: jason at November 23, 2009 09:22 PM (x70Q/)

233 This is the real troubling aspect. What if all their "adjusting" "smoothing" "normalizing" and outright fudging is actually hiding acooling trend? In the 1970's some scientists were actually predicting cooling. If this AGW scam is hiding a cooling trend (a real catastrophe), the perpsshould be shot.
One can do some general reading of history to discover what a cool planet does to human agriculture.

Posted by: Pelayo at November 23, 2009 09:23 PM (wwQxi)

234 What is the green house index forphlogiston? Yeah, that's it.

Posted by: Pelayo at November 23, 2009 09:29 PM (wwQxi)

235 Yes, when my data and techniques are irreproachable, I too send emails to my colleagues to hide my data and destroy correspondence.

Plus, somebody leaked this. Probably a tech or researcher who just couldn't keep living a lie.

Posted by: sexypig at November 23, 2009 09:34 PM (FyCry)

236 Computers can't lie. Computer operators, however....

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 09:42 PM (cok/k)

237 If this AGW scam is hiding a cooling trend (a real catastrophe), the perpsshould be shot.
It doesn't matter.
If we were or are in such a trend, you can't do a damn thing about it.

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 09:44 PM (cok/k)

238 If we were or are in such a trend, you can't do a damn thing about it. Posted by: Entropy
Yep, and we can't do anything about a warming trend either.

Posted by: Pelayo at November 23, 2009 09:51 PM (wwQxi)

239 Entropy, after giving this some thought, if we knew that a cooling trend was in the works, agriculturists and other plant scientists would be able to plan and develop food crops that will grow in a cool climate. We could prepare for colder winters.

Posted by: Pelayo at November 23, 2009 10:02 PM (wwQxi)

240 , if we knew that a cooling trend was in the works, agriculturists and other plant scientists would be able to plan and develop food crops that will grow in a cool climate.
They do that anyway.
They are not, in anticipation of the coming Great Warmening, all sitting on their asses and playing Freecell, I hope.
But fact is, we allready have the technology to produce all the food we need and then some as it is. Cold or warm. The US is a majorexporter of food, and we could grow a LOT more. We pay farmers as it is NOT to grow stuff to keep the prices artificially high and avoid food gluts.
We could certainly beef up our energy production in anticipation of greater heating requirements. But we already know we need to do that, and won't. And we can always do it 2 minutes too late and suffer only mildly, all things considered.
There's not much to prepare for, really. I live in Chicago. You'll Florida wusses will learn to live with it.
As for stocking canned goods under your bed like they told you to do in the 70's... well I assume you still have all thepork n' beansyou shoved under your mattress for Y2k no?

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 11:09 PM (cok/k)

241 Fact is, if they were screaming Global Cooling, right or wrong, I'd be accusing them of fear mongering just the same as now.

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 11:11 PM (cok/k)

242 And even as it is, food gluts and Volcanic Doom and all, those chipper little agriculturalists are scheming up sinister ways to grow random crap in artic tundra, space stations, and sea floors, just because it's whats they do.
And cuz they think it will Solve World Hunger or something if they teach eskimos to grow avacados.

Posted by: Entropy at November 23, 2009 11:14 PM (cok/k)

243 and yet the only thing regarding the enviroment on MSNBC.COM is the headine "Co2 Levels On the Rise". This from a network that had Al Gore preaching about being green all week. I can't wait for Inhofe investigations to blow this whole scheme out of the water. I am sure everyone saw him dismisss the junior "Senator" from Ca. That was so awesome.

Posted by: California Red at November 24, 2009 12:59 AM (ElDsu)

244 DaveS, I disagree with you about where we should place our efforts on this.

We should attack this AGW hoax from all angles. None of this work is any good at all. Every model should be scrapped. All the data, the raw direct data and the raw proxy data should be re-examined and where possible remeasured.

None of it should be shoved into modeling software. Why?

Because you don't need to do that and it only leads to trouble. The data alone can show the connection, whatever it may be, between CO2 levels and temperature levels. Do we need to use models to show how in North America the temperature is affected by the calendar?

I do not rail against statistics in Science. It is a valid and powerful tool. I've used it many times. But few things in Science are equally ripe for abuse.

The best thing to do is plot the raw data, with the error bars included, and then let the Scientists scream at each other for 20 years. By then Al Gore and most hippies will be dead.

A self-cleaning oven.

Posted by: eman at November 24, 2009 01:31 AM (Weq7t)

245 Do any of you suspect Algore knew of this science cabal? In on the fudging of data to make the graphs? Or do you think he just accepted the output without prejudice

Posted by: kmiller1k at November 24, 2009 03:02 AM (n5ruu)

246 250 Do any of you suspect Algore knew of this science cabal? In on the fudging of data to make the graphs? Or do you think he just accepted the output without prejudice

Posted by: kmiller1k at November 24, 2009 03:02 AM (n5ruu)
The guy who thinks that it's "millions of degrees" at the Earth's core? I don't think Gore is smart enough to light an LED bulb with his IQ. He is the epitome of the useful idiot. He should still go to jail, anyway, because he knows that he doesn't know anything. Gore's only talent is that he is totally impervious to embarrassment and humiliation - which seems to be the great strength of many on the left.
The big question is what the retards on the SCOTUS who ruled that global warming was real, anthropogenic, and CO2-based (among other idiocies) should be subject to. Clearly, they are too dumb to be trusted with any decision of import - not that that's news ...

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 24, 2009 03:48 AM (A46hP)

247
It's been happening in the field of Anthropology for quite some
time.The migration of Early Americans from Asia to America is wild
guesswork based on ancient pieces of broken spear pointsand small
fragments of human bones.

I've been casually following this, and the changes are starting to show up in even state-run museums. The "ice-free corridor" is disappearing (because it never existed), and there are even the occasional, grudging, references to pre-Clovis populations.

Posted by: Rob Crawford at November 24, 2009 09:08 AM (ZJ/un)

248 I agree with the post. Ingenuous explanations like padding a polynomial smoothing function are inadequate to explain the email narrative.
The fact is the data end of many tree-ring series ended in 1980, padding would have carried forward from that point, to 2020, the tail discarded. Anyway, the tail direction can be selected by choice of polynomial.
Here the last 20 years of the data are replaced. The PCM construct is filled not with data but 'temperature measurements' of unknown provenance.

Posted by: gary gulrud at November 24, 2009 11:43 AM (nf+jy)

249 All this interest in the hoax-proving e-mails, yet no one will look at the "instrumental" temperature record compiled by Phil Jones .... WHY?
Why will no one even LOOK at it.
I believe the HADCRUt database is still available online. Just go look at the data for January 1860 in the HADCRUt database. See what it is and compare it to what it claims to be, i.e. a "Global" "Average" temperature. Just go look for God's sake. Somebody; anybody.

Posted by: Uriel at November 24, 2009 12:23 PM (pGmUi)

250 Yeah anthropology is about as sketchy a science as sociology. The people involved have their agendas.

Here's the thing though: I think many branches of science are working in this sort of pattern.

Look, however you happen to believe about the theory of evolution, consider this: do you think if data showed that evolution didn't work or wasn't possible, that it was in error, how many scientists would admit it? How many would massage the data and change the wording and adjust the theory until that square block fit through the round hole?

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