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buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
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petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com
Moody's Analytics' Very Accurate Election Model -- Which Has Only Been Wrong Once in 40 Years -- Points to Trump Victory, Possibly a Crushing One
Before getting to the current model, we should look at the one time the model broke down.
Which was... 2016. As the prediction stood on November 1, 2016:Low gas prices and President Barack Obama’s high approval ratings are key factors that favor Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White Hou:se in next week’s election, according to a model from Moody's Analytics that has accurately predicted the last nine U.S. presidential contests. ... The Reuters-Ipsos States of the Nation project also predicts a Clinton win, with a 95 percent probability of her winning at least 278 electoral votes.So it got that one wrong. Moody's projection is largely based on underlying economic factors -- pocketbook, stock market, unemployment rate -- with a comparatively small dependence on polling information. So, assuming the economy stays healthy, the current forecast is for a Trump victory even bigger than the one erroneously predicted for Hillary.
Moody's Analytics released the results of its 2020 prediction model on Tuesday showing Trump winning with 332 electoral votes, an increase over his 2016 win of 306, if voter turnout remains relatively close to the historical average. ... "If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," the authors said. "It's about turnout."I don't know if that proviso if voter turnout remains relatively close to the historical average is likely to be true. Seems to me 2020 will be abnormally passionate and have an abnormally high turnout. But that doesn't necessarily cut against Trump too badly, as the forecast goes on to say. Moody's forecast is here. They explain that their erroneous prediction of a Clinton win was based on a 2-year graph of low gas prices, but, had they instead used a one-year frame....
Beginning in 2014, gasoline prices experienced their largest two-year decline leading up to a presidential election. Historically, two-year declines in gasoline prices have a strong statistical relationship with incumbent parties maintaining control of the White House. Therefore, we used the two-year decline in gasoline prices as an independent variable in the 2016 election model, and it was enough to offset many other explanatory variables that were working against Clinton at the time. However, if we had shortened the time frame for the decline in gasoline prices from two years to one year, the 2016 model would have instead predicted a Trump win. This owed, at least in part, to the timing of the decline inGas prices dropped a lot two years before 2016, but almost not at all since 2015. So the public was not feeling great about gas prices. It's very easy to adjust a "forecasting" model post hoc and change your variables to retroactively "predict" past events you already know happened. Still, that's their explanation. As to turnout: in an election with turnout near the historical average, Trump wins with 322 votes. But even assuming maximum turnout seen in past elections (that is, the highest turnout one could reasonably expect), the Democrats are predicted to win -- but only barely. That projection suggests that Democrats would just barely cross the 270 threshold with 279, and Trump would lose with 259. Even with maximum historical turnout, the Democrats can't afford to have any states wind up more Trump-leaning than average, or else they'll lose their slight edge. Meanwhile, in a low turnout election (something I'm pretty sure will not happen), Trump wins with 380 electoral votes. This is probably premature, but we get so much bad polling news, I thought it's maybe worth pointing out that a model based on economic modeling projects a likely Trump hold.
gasoline prices. Though the two-year drop was the largest leading up to an election, most of the decline occurred in 2014 and early 2015 (see Chart 2). This meant that
the price decline in the 12 months before the 2016 election was barely noticeable,
providing little boost to the then-incumbent Democratic Party.
Comments
(Jump to bottom of comments)Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 11:57 AM (q80AH)
Posted by: catman at October 16, 2019 11:57 AM (4HMlb)
Posted by: catman at October 16, 2019 11:57 AM (4HMlb)
Posted by: Long-time Commenter, First-time Reader at October 16, 2019 11:58 AM (fvkPE)
Posted by: catman at October 16, 2019 11:58 AM (4HMlb)
Posted by: Nurse ratched at October 16, 2019 11:59 AM (z5uon)
==========
I dunno.
4 years of Mueller and then impeachment that go nowhere could have negative effects on Democratic turnout.
"What's the point?" is a question that could get asked a lot.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 11:59 AM (q80AH)
Posted by: FrodoB, reloading at October 16, 2019 11:59 AM (NTkSq)
Posted by: Victor Tango Kilo at October 16, 2019 12:00 PM (O7MnT)
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory at October 16, 2019 12:00 PM (GPDy1)
Posted by: The Scorpion at October 16, 2019 12:00 PM (yLY3w)
Posted by: rhennigantx dont california my TEXAS at October 16, 2019 12:00 PM (JFO2v)
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (cqNba)
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (1XNk8)
Posted by: Thanatopsis at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (P6MXs)
Posted by: Long-time Commenter, First-time Reader at October 16, 2019 11:58 AM (fvkPE)
11 to 33 million same as # of illegals
Posted by: rhennigantx dont california my TEXAS at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (JFO2v)
Advantage: President Trump.
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (qC1Sy)
The left has already tried once to start a recession. I suspect they will try again.
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (JUOKG)
Posted by: Low Information Voter, Vivo CNN! at October 16, 2019 12:02 PM (xnvzL)
Posted by: vmom happy to have read a good book! at October 16, 2019 12:02 PM (G546f)
Posted by: BignJames at October 16, 2019 12:02 PM (X/Pw5)
Posted by: Winston Wolf at October 16, 2019 12:02 PM (so+oy)
Alternate poat title:
And This Is Really Why The Democrats and Their Fake News Associates Want to Impeach President Trump
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 16, 2019 12:02 PM (CqQJR)
Posted by: Long-time Commenter, First-time Reader at October 16, 2019 11:58 AM (fvkPE)
---------------
Don't worry, we'll make sure to run up the vote totals in states we've already won, because that's what we did the last time.
Posted by: DNC dead voter registration at October 16, 2019 12:03 PM (qC1Sy)
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (JUOKG)
They will. But, if Trump can finish up the China trade deal, he should be bulletproof.
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:03 PM (1XNk8)
Still, I wonder if Dem turnout will be strong or not. That is the big x factor. On one hand, they hate America and Trump and that will motivate them to come vote. But on the other hand, the Dem party is starting to break up into factions who don't like each other much. If the primary becomes heated and the chosen candidate can't unite the mob, they'll be in trouble. And that's the other side of the coin: The chosen candidate. The fix will be in with the DNC and votes don't matter on that side. The antifa/gimme dat free mob will be pissed when the most psycho left person isn't chosen, and in that case they either won't vote or will obnoxiously vote for a third party or write in that represents their communist/fascist values.
Posted by: Agemt Cooper at October 16, 2019 12:03 PM (iAwUQ)
is, the highest turnout one could reasonably expect), the Democrats are
predicted to win -- but only barely. That projection suggests that
Democrats would just barely cross the 270 threshold with 279, and Trump would lose with 259.
---
Not a single one of the current democrat candidates will energize their base to the same extent that Trump will.
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:04 PM (JUOKG)
Did they figure in voter fraud?
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:04 PM (Qq3ZN)
Posted by: vmom happy to have read a good book! at October 16, 2019 12:02 PM (G546f)
----------------
I didn't watch it, but, best guess:
"Free stuff for all"
"Orangeman bad!"
And that probably covers the debate topics.
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:04 PM (qC1Sy)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:04 PM (ZLI7S)
I can see this being an alarm being sounded to the Dems to try and find a way and get Bloomberg to run. The current crop of candidates isn't going to cut it against the Orange Crush.
Posted by: Darrell Harris at October 16, 2019 12:05 PM (iuFgi)
We are not going to get anything close to reliable from either side up to the election. My personal suggestion is to ignore all polling entirely for practical purposes, and only use polls as motivational tools.
So in the vein of ignoring polls, heard a funny joke on Rogan/Shaffir from back when India and Pakistan were saber rattling:
What are they going to war over? Who smells the worst???
Posted by: imp at October 16, 2019 12:05 PM (w+Z9D)
Posted by: Surfperch, having just gotten back from Instapundit at October 16, 2019 12:05 PM (d9WEU)
How's the economy doing? and Are we in any new major foreign conflicts? are really the only two major questions that matter.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:05 PM (q80AH)
Posted by: Mr. Peebles at October 16, 2019 12:05 PM (oVJmc)
Advantage: President Trump.
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (qC1Sy)
gas prices are same as when I was in college
5 bucks!
Posted by: rhennigantx dont california my TEXAS at October 16, 2019 12:05 PM (JFO2v)
Couple that with possible INDICTMENTS of criminal Obama administration coup conspirators, and there would be a Reagan/Election.
Posted by: Local degen at October 16, 2019 12:05 PM (Bf3hj)
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:05 PM (CQ3Qb)
Posted by: BeckoningChasm at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (E+OcO)
Not a one of those idiots could stand up to Trump in a debate.
He would be mugging to the cameras as they were talking and rope-a-doping whoever it ends up being.
They could sell tickets to the debates for $100 a seat and it would sell out in 3 seconds.. It's gonna be gruesome.
As long as.. as long as the economy holds..
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (so+oy)
Posted by: vmom happy to have read a good book! at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (G546f)
Posted by: Local degen at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (Bf3hj)
Advantage: President Trump.
Posted by: blake
$2.399 in my neck of DFW. Filled up at Sam's yesterday for $2.089
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (Qq3ZN)
An almost perfect description of 99% of climate "science."
Posted by: Matt at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (XIVyl)
An extremely crooked corporation with powerful connections to the Deep State is giving us advice. Beware.
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (AzW6q)
Posted by: Galil at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (Pzzpr)
Learned a valuable lesson, don't bullshit a resume with stuff that's easy to disprove.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (FiUMj)
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:07 PM (1XNk8)
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:07 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: Low Information Voter, Vivo CNN! at October 16, 2019 12:07 PM (xnvzL)
Trumps wins re-election.
Left wrath focuses not on Trump and his administration.....
.... but on Trump VOTERS. The stupid racist Bible thumping sister fuckers will have RUINED the country.
And they must PAY for it. With blood.
Mark my words.
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:07 PM (8XRCm)
Posted by: Horus Hearsay at October 16, 2019 12:07 PM (DB16e)
....the God-Emperor will triumph so stop being such an Eeyore
Posted by: Andersonville Cooper Vanderbilt Gettysburg at October 16, 2019 12:07 PM (8KSPd)
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:07 PM (1XNk
=========
Something about an American ambassador's wife in England, I think. She killed someone and the whole thing's been bungled by everyone involved.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (q80AH)
Posted by: vmom happy to have read a good book! at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (G546f)
Hmm..I'm a woman of mocha color..can I get three votes too?
Posted by: IC at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (a0IVu)
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (1XNk
And grid your lions!
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (QugKX)
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (1XNk8)
But I expect Trump to win - and maybe bigly - which to me would be up near 380 electoral votes.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (sX1BW)
Truck drivers still get 14 MPG, but a truck driver who would consider voting Dem is very rare.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (FiUMj)
Posted by: G marks the spot at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (Js8Dx)
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (Qq3ZN)
A solid $2.00 cheaper than here in #Failifornia.
Posted by: Surfperch at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (d9WEU)
Posted by: Wut at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (OP2H/)
Posted by: Darrell Harris
Bloomie won't either.
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (Qq3ZN)
I am your president!
I AM YOUR PRESIDENT DAMMIT, I WON IT FAIR AND SQUARE!!!!!!
TRRRRUUUUMMMMMP!!!
*hic*
Posted by: Hillary! 2016, Who Will Never Be President of the United States at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (ZYB2s)
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (q80AH)
Yikes.
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (1XNk8)
Hillary Clinton Announces She Will Seek Reelection As President Of The United States
Posted by: rhennigantx dont california my TEXAS at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (JFO2v)
Posted by: Otters at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (RD7QR)
2.15 or so in the area now.
Oh, the hugemanitee...
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: Surfperch at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (d9WEU)
----------------
Yup.
Sigh.
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (qC1Sy)
Do I have this right?
When Ryan and the Republicans controlled the House, the Democrats ran a fake investigation with fake hearings with the assistance of the Republicans.
And now with Pelosi and the Democrats controlling the House, the Democrats are running a fake impeachment with secret hearings and secret testimonies and totally excluding the Republicans.
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (CqQJR)
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (q80AH)
Yeah, she killed a 16 year old boy on his bike. His parents want her to face justice in the UK. Understandably so.
Posted by: IC at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (a0IVu)
Posted by: N.L. Urker, champion of Urkers everywhere at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (Uu+Jp)
Poll threads = Troll threads. Gird your loins.
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (1XNk
And grid your lions!
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (QugKX)
*grilling loins*
Oh. OH! Grabs ruler and pencil.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (jYnPD)
And, remember - Moody's doesn't just lie - they lie BIG. Like the biggest rug you can imagine. They told the lie that helped us into that last depression we all lived through.
Posted by: Yudhishthira's Dice at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (AzW6q)
Historically low unemployment, particularly among African Americans and Latinos, that's bad for the other side. Now, that said are the suburban white liberal women going to crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump? Yeah, probably. I don't see the max Dem turnout model happening. At all.
Posted by: DanInMN at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (h5ffp)
Meanwhile, in 2016 I held my nose and voted for Trump in 2020 I would crawl over broken glass to keep the Dems away from the power they crave.
Posted by: Just Lily at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (EPzH/)
The wife of a US diplomat stationed in the UK had a head on collision with a young Brit who was on a motorcycle and he died. She was driving on the wrong side of the road and then used diplomatic immunity to return to the US. The family, as you might imagine, wants justice.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (ZLI7S)
Posted by: m at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (mon3V)
hoc and change your variables to retroactively "predict" past events
you already know happened."
An almost perfect description of 99% of climate "science."
Posted by: Matt at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM
---
Uh, most climate models they use can't even get past events right.
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (JUOKG)
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (FiUMj)
Yeah, but think of all of those ribbon smooth highways and byways you've got, unlike us rubes here in Texas...
/oh, wait
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (6qErC)
He could sign an Executive Order just to make it legal.
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (ZYB2s)
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (FiUMj)
===========
$2.19 at the Costco's in the low country.
Not bad, though I miss the $1.89 gas. One day, I'm going to fill my Highlander up from empty with less than $20. I hope.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:11 PM (q80AH)
Posted by: Surfperch at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (d9WEU0
--------
Our gas aint cheaper.
Its your gas taxes.
No surprise anal.
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:11 PM (8XRCm)
btw, aren't we overdue for Cuck Burr and the joke Senate Intel Committee to subpoena someone in regards to Russian collusion?
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 16, 2019 12:11 PM (CqQJR)
I have Netflix only because my younger son signed up for it and subscribers can add one other location at no cost. It's become Unwatchable except for Mad Men repeats
I have a Gigantic TeeVee with Roku built-in and bought a local channel antenna for fifty bucks.
Alors, mes amis, I geeve no money to no one!
Posted by: Andersonville Cooper Vanderbilt Gettysburg at October 16, 2019 12:11 PM (8KSPd)
Posted by: naturalfake at October 16, 2019 12:12 PM (kauXV)
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:12 PM (8XRCm)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (ZLI7S)
A simple solution is for her to convert to Islam. Then the Brits will shut up.
Posted by: Colorado Alex In Exile at October 16, 2019 12:12 PM (wCmLp)
How's the economy doing? and Are we in any new major foreign conflicts? are really the only two major questions that matter.
-----------
But is this still true in an era where poverty is basically non-existent and we have perpetual conflicts (if not outright wars)?
Perhaps it is ... but I don't know.
I have my doubts.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:12 PM (sX1BW)
That sounds fishy. It takes 15-20 minutes to vote. And voting is now a month long affair with early voting. I refuse to believe that there are people who desperately want to vote but can't find half an hour to do so during October, every 4 years.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:12 PM (FiUMj)
Is it just me, or is that "injected" just weird? Maybe I'm overanalyzing it, but it's either a reference to injecting something into your veins, or to all the Paolo jokes regarding injecting we make...
Posted by: Grimaldi at October 16, 2019 12:12 PM (+XkAw)
Not. They'd rather bitch at their husbands and complain to each other over a bad chardonnay, all while posting on FaceTwat.
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:12 PM (6qErC)
"The conservative case for handing over the country to Fake Indian Lizzie Warren and turning it into a socialist shithole"
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 16, 2019 12:12 PM (ZYB2s)
Yeah, but think of all of those ribbon smooth highways and byways you've got, unlike us rubes here in Texas...
/oh, wait
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:10 PM (6qErC)
--------------
I was in MN recently. Drove all over the Twins Cities area, and the roads in freaking MN are in better shape than the roads in CA.
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:12 PM (qC1Sy)
Posted by: Beefy Meatball at October 16, 2019 12:13 PM (HARoo)
Posted by: The Huge Manatee at October 16, 2019 12:13 PM (iB1oa)
Posted by: blake
Y'all ain't feeding 11 million illegals.
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:13 PM (Qq3ZN)
'Jeff Zucker goes into the control room while @jaketapper is interviewing @KellyannePolls'
Tells Executive Producer to skip commercials and extend a 7 minute interview to 25 minutes to
"Just Fucking nail her"
Posted by: Derp State is in Deep Shit at October 16, 2019 12:13 PM (BqBId)
--
It's not without merit that I worry about Soros' evil, liver-spotted hands pulling some big time shenanigans with the markets in the fall of next year.
Posted by: Lady in Black - Death to the Man Bun at October 16, 2019 12:13 PM (JoUsr)
We don't want a 99% chance of a Trump win turning into an election night upset in favor of a quisling Commie because of fraud, record turnout of the FSA, etc.
Our side has to show up in record numbers at the voting booths and do everything possible to deter voter fraud.
It needs to be a such a large margin of a MAGA victory, including down ballot that the DNC can't steal it and the GOPe cucks can't deliberately throw the election.
Posted by: Oh No Not the bees! at October 16, 2019 12:13 PM (LQ6KC)
Posted by: Delaforce at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (vScqA)
Posted by: blake
Y'all ain't feeding 11 million illegals.
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:13 PM (Qq3ZN)
___
Give us time....
Posted by: Somali Women Having 8 kids in MN at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (FiUMj)
Corey Booker: Rice-A-Roni and the luggage from Dicker and Dicker of Beverly Hills
Posted by: Mr. Peebles at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (oVJmc)
Posted by: Hillary! 2016, Who Will Never Be President of the United States at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (ZYB2s)
Posted by: rhennigantx dont california my TEXAS at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (JFO2v)
Posted by: mallfly the Peach of Hoboken at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (ZqRa6)
Hubby just got the open enrollment stuff and everything is more expensive, as usual.
Posted by: vmom happy to have read a good book! at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (G546f)
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (Qq3ZN)
Posted by: Delaforce at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (vScqA)
----
Im so old I remember when diesel was always cheaper than gas.
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (8XRCm)
Posted by: Little Brian at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (ZZEwZ)
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (CqQJR)
Posted by: IC at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (a0IVu)
Posted by: LGoPs the former boyscout who now shouts Broken Arrow!, Broken Arrow! at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (68SQp)
But I promise you this, I will place my voting envelope in the mailbox con gusto!
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (1XNk8)
Sadly, yes. Some here know that I spent a lot of time on roads across the USA back in the day, and CA was then starting to fall apart compared w/other areas. Today, it's pathetic. Road in central Alabama are generally better than in the LA basin (tho online twatterers will claim otherwise)
Google earth street view of CA roads is enlightening. And not in a good way.
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (JUOKG)
They will. But, if Trump can finish up the China trade deal, he should be bulletproof.
Posted by: Guy Smiley at
I suspect they will try real bullets come next summer if things are still humming along.
Posted by: LASue at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (A54vd)
Posted by: Picric at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (nonGu)
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (CqQJR)
Wait. I think it's my turn again.
Posted by: Max Boot, Leaving Here, Boss! at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (ZYB2s)
Posted by: IC at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (a0IVu)
clearly we deserve it!
Posted by: vmom happy to have read a good book! at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (G546f)
Aren't we way overdue for a fake conservative Cuck to announce he's no longer a Republican?
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (CqQJR)
============
If Max Boot shouts it in an empty room, does he make a sound?
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (q80AH)
That sounds fishy. It takes 15-20 minutes to vote. And voting is now a month long affair with early voting. I refuse to believe that there are people who desperately want to vote but can't find half an hour to do so during October, every 4 years.
-----------
Add to this, we are perpetually bombarded with political news. Its in the NBA, the NFL. Yes - I blame the left on this. But it is just a fact. And the two candidates are further apart now than perhaps in years past. Trump is a big deviation from the uniparty. In the past, you might have said, it doesn't really matter, the two candidates are basically the same. But when one party wants to take your guns and kill every baby, the stakes are different.*
* of course, that has been the Democratic platform for 50 years, its just that in the past they hid it better
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (sX1BW)
Posted by: Delaforce
Since it's the easiest to make and the first vehicle fuel off the cracking tower....
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (Qq3ZN)
Posted by: IanDeal at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (3ptJQ)
And also Trump could realistically lose PA, AZ, MI and WI.
So whatever happens, the result is going to be close.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (FiUMj)
Posted by: joncelli, because somebody had to at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:06 PM (Qq3ZN)
A solid $2.00 cheaper than here in #Failifornia.
Posted by: Surfperch at October 16, 2019 12:08 PM (d9WEU)
Well, to be fair, California gives you more gov't services like -
Access to Free Range Hobo Feces
Improved Opportunities to Catch Typhoid and Other 3rd World Diseases
So...
Posted by: naturalfake at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (kauXV)
Posted by: IC at October 16, 2019 12:09 PM (a0IVu)
Is the spouse of an ambassador covered by diplomatic immunity? Can the President waive diplomatic immunity is cases like this?
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (QugKX)
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (6qErC)
To isolate Repubs and Dems voting held on 2 days.
Repubs vote November 3, 2020
Dems vote November 4, 2020
Posted by: rhennigantx dont california my TEXAS at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (JFO2v)
My guess is 5 minutes.
Posted by: Jukin the Deplorable and Profoundly Unserious at October 16, 2019 12:17 PM (pw+jk)
And also Trump could realistically lose PA, AZ, MI and WI.
So whatever happens, the result is going to be close.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (FiUMj)
=========
If Trump flips MN, he'll expand his wins in MI, WI, and PA.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:17 PM (q80AH)
Posted by: Captain Hate at October 16, 2019 12:17 PM (y7DUB)
And also Trump could realistically lose PA, AZ, MI and WI.
So whatever happens, the result is going to be close.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (FiUMj)
He's not losing AZ or MI
Posted by: JoeF. at October 16, 2019 12:17 PM (NFEMn)
Posted by: Delaforce at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (vScqA)
----
Im so old I remember when diesel was always cheaper than gas.
Posted by: fixerupper
I'm so old I remember when it was half of gas and they couldn't give it away and the majority of gas stations DIDN'T carry it.
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:17 PM (Qq3ZN)
It's all someone's heady bullshit t ok try set up the shaping of opinion. Just watch. Six months from now they'll be say the picture has flipped and the dems are going to win big again.
Polls anymore are BULLSHIT.
Posted by: Sooner at October 16, 2019 12:17 PM (Fs5vw)
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019
Exactly.
Posted by: JoeF. at October 16, 2019 12:17 PM (NFEMn)
btw, aren't we overdue for Cuck Burr and the joke Senate Intel Committee to subpoena someone in regards to Russian collusion?
..
They're doing nothing.
DOJ is doing nothing.
And the IG will whitewash.
Posted by: Wut at October 16, 2019 12:18 PM (OP2H/)
Posted by: The Huge Manatee
I saw your cousin at SeaWorld. Hugh Manatee.
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (Qq3ZN)
I saw cousin Otter Preminger
Posted by: rhennigantx dont california my TEXAS at October 16, 2019 12:18 PM (JFO2v)
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:18 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (Qq3ZN)
-----
Hugh will do anything for a head of iceberg lettuce.
Posted by: The Huge Manatee at October 16, 2019 12:18 PM (iB1oa)
Posted by: Captain Hate at October 16, 2019 12:17 PM (y7DUB)
----------------
If PDT wins in a landslide, I may just sign up for Twatter just so I can kick those jackasses when they're down.
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:18 PM (qC1Sy)
Posted by: N.L. Urker, champion of Urkers everywhere at October 16, 2019 12:18 PM (Uu+Jp)
How does "Latvian collusion" strike you? Just spitballin' here.
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 16, 2019 12:18 PM (ZYB2s)
Posted by: vmom happy to have read a good book! at October 16, 2019 12:02 PM (G546f)
I only watched a 6-minute Tulsi clip. I thought she took out some of the other Dems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7-9qF0sMyk
Posted by: m at October 16, 2019 12:18 PM (mon3V)
Posted by: NativeNH at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (koJFD)
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (QugKX)]
I am not sure but she is hiding out here. She said she was confused driving on the other side of the road - stupid twit - then don't drive.
Posted by: IC at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (a0IVu)
Posted by: The GOPe at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (pw+jk)
When is Trump going to get DEF and the regen BS off of trucks?
Posted by: Galil at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (Pzzpr)
Posted by: Long-time Commenter, First-time Reader at October 16, 2019 11:58 AM (fvkPE)
---------------
Exactly. As a wise man once said, let's not start punching each others' babies in the dick just yet.
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (Ki5SV)
"You're welcome"
/VWAG
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (6qErC)
-----
Yes.
No.
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (8XRCm)
That sounds fishy. It takes 15-20 minutes to vote. And voting is now a month long affair with early voting. I refuse to believe that there are people who desperately want to vote but can't find half an hour to do so during October, every 4 years.
________
I'm saying that there are people who in the past have voted Democrat that are doing well enough now that they just don't have the motivation to vote. When you're un or under-employed it is easy to get excited about voting. When you are marginally attached to start with but things are looking up, your job is better, your spouse is employed too, etc. it might not be a high priority anymore.
You're right that anyone that wants to vote can, I think turnout will be lower because fewer people (primarily marginally attached D voters) will not care enough to vote.
Posted by: DanInMN at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (h5ffp)
Bloody Mary Worth appears behind you and gives you lots of old-lady advice.
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (1XNk8)
Here is the Socialist State of Washington prices keep going up. I paid $3.59 the other day.
Posted by: Diogenes at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (axyOa)
Posted by: In before the troll at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (veoSD)
Posted by: Dan Smoot's Apprentice at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (H8QX8)
The Democrats have a built in weakness - because of the way they have built their party, they depend on *Heavy* black voter turnout. That worked for Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Hillary still drew that block pretty well in 2016. But will a generic northeastern white candidate get that? Not likely.
And they always *say* they are going to get huge hispanic turnout, but in every election so far, Hispanics have the lowest general turnout of any sector of the population. Sure, that could change - but it hasn't happened yet.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (Kpl3J)
Posted by: Picric at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (nonGu)
Surprise anal makes a surprise showing on the thread.
Posted by: m at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (mon3V)
And also Trump could realistically lose PA, AZ, MI and WI.
..
Yup on all accounts except NM.
Posted by: Wut at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (OP2H/)
Trump throwing Barky's name into the mix today caused me to think this is why they are all going crazy with impeachment talk.
Posted by: JoeF. at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (NFEMn)
I hope Donny Two Scoops understands this.
Posted by: Velvet glove, iron fist at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (vqPyn)
Of course, the harvesters will probably learn to just fill the ballots out themselves and hope they don't get caught (like that will happen in Cali)
Posted by: mallfly the Peach of Hoboken at October 16, 2019 12:21 PM (ZqRa6)
Posted by: JoeF. at October 16, 2019 12:17 PM (NFEMn)
____
Hillary losing MI and WI? Crazy talk!!!
- 2016
MI was a fluke I think in 2016. Dems didn't cheat thinking they didn't need to. In 2020 every precinct in Detroit will have 110% turnout with Trump getting 0 votes.
And AZ....it's been trending purple for a long time. Trump won it by 3.5% in 2016.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:21 PM (FiUMj)
Posted by: can of spam at October 16, 2019 12:21 PM (g0aRc)
So, assuming the economy stays healthy,
Hold our pinot noir
Posted by: The FED, the MSM, House Dems, George Soros, Deep State Economists at October 16, 2019 12:21 PM (786Ro)
--------------
Preference would be to expand in the Senate and take the House - obviously. But given one or the other, I'd rather expand the Senate. A couple extra Court confirmation votes is needed more than anything.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:21 PM (sX1BW)
Otter?
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:18 PM (6qErC)
Yes, I really should.
Posted by: joncelli, because somebody had to at October 16, 2019 12:21 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (Kpl3J)
===========
And....Hispanics don't vote like a block as much as blacks do.
I think 2016 was 35-65 or so. 2020 with Trump's record on the economy could see that move to 40-60 or better. Increase the overall numbers of Hispanic voters at the same time and you've got something big.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:21 PM (q80AH)
Bloody Mary Worth appears behind you and gives you lots of old-lady advice.
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (1XNk
ROFL!!! Mark Trail is gonna stalk you for that one!!!
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:21 PM (Kpl3J)
Meanwhile, in a low turnout election (something I'm pretty sure will not happen), Trump wins with 380 electoral votes.
_________
Can AG Barr follow precedent and hire New Black Panthers to police polling stations with impunity with the goal of preventing Hispanics from voting in swing-state Democrat cities?
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 12:22 PM (FASvy)
I see Jonah G just arrived....
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 16, 2019 12:22 PM (veoSD)
Ain't no body gonna claim to be a deplorable to a cold call pollster.....
Posted by: H1 at October 16, 2019 12:22 PM (C1s0h)
Knowing the whole thing was about to be exposed by Barr and Co. has always been the reason for this latest impeachment crap.
They don't have the facts, they don't have the law, all they have is pounding on the table and distracting.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM (ZLI7S)
Yeah, Scalp Weasel 2 is not happy about this so hopefully Scalp Weasel Prime can fix it.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM (ZGrMX)
But PredictIt shows the Dems up by 20%!!!!!!
___
PredictIt doesn't work in a Dem is up 10%. They're all individual markets, independent of each other. Right now D2020 is 56 and R20202 is 47. It always adds up to over 100.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM (FiUMj)
Those leafs aren't going to blow themselves.
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM (ZYB2s)
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: Lizzy at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM (bDqIh)
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:16 PM (QugKX)]
The entire family is protected by diplomatic immunity on foreign soil. This stupid lady has put Trump in a bit of a bind.
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM (CQ3Qb)
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:14 PM (8XRCm)
A lot more of it being used now. And diesel tended to be a by-product of the refining process to make gasoline, so supply exceeded demand. And now, fuels are priced more in tune with their actual energy content, and Diesel contains more BTU's per gallon than does gasoline.
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (QugKX)
>>Forget gas prices; when is diesel gonna be cheaper?"
When is Trump going to get DEF and the regen BS off of trucks?
Posted by: Galil at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (Pzzpr)
I want a diesel hilux and a Kate Upton Strip-o-Gram.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (jYnPD)
Which is why the Dems are big on importing replacement Hispanics.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (ZGrMX)
Clearly, this claim is false. Your honor, that man had no balls.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (Kpl3J)
Without all that, Trump is already favored. This is a good place to start.
Posted by: t-bird at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (xSo9G)
the way they have built their party, they depend on *Heavy* black voter
turnout. That worked for Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Hillary still
drew that block pretty well in 2016. But will a generic northeastern
white candidate get that? Not likely.
And they always *say* they are going to get huge hispanic turnout,
but in every election so far, Hispanics have the lowest general turnout
of any sector of the population. Sure, that could change - but it
hasn't happened yet.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM
---
Trump will get more black vote than he got in 2016. His approval has doubled with blacks since his election.
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (JUOKG)
___
It's consistently 65-35 Dem. I'd say that's a pretty decent block.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (FiUMj)
B-b-b-b-b-but.....
Polling shows all of the top five Dem candidates beating Trump. Biden beats him by double digits.
**makes jerkoff motion
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (8XRCm)
Posted by: Quint at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (n13/j)
You'd certainly THINK 2020 would be through the roof, but what's really changed since 2016? The Dems REALLY hate Trump now? Maybe moderates are more inclined to consider Trump, as he hasn't be as crazy as the left portrayed him after 3 years in office, but suburban wine moms seem to be drifting away more...
Posted by: Grimaldi at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (+XkAw)
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (AFSld)
hispanic turnout, but in every election so far, Hispanics have the
lowest general turnout of any sector of the population. Sure, that
could change - but it hasn't happened yet.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM (Kpl3J)
A good number of hispanic folks support Trump though. In any case it's never smart to lump anybody into a voting bloc and assume their preference. I've never liked or believed in the ID politics much. People don't work that way. One of the best things about Trump is he's kind of upset that apple cart, or started to.
Posted by: Agemt Cooper at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (iAwUQ)
-----------
Sometimes there are no good solutions. Diplomatic immunity is an age old solution to a very real problem. It exists for a reason. To change it or make exceptions probably takes you down a road where you just do things ad hoc.
It may not be completely just, but really nothing can be done.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (sX1BW)
Trump's are fun, happy. The crowd is into it, fired up.
Compared to Obama's--they were their to worship the hero, for the snark, and mocking.
The only chance the Dems have is huge turnout of their loyalists.
And that Trump voters stay home.
That's not happening
Because what I'm seeing is Trump voters can't wait to vote for him again
Remember so much in 2016 was "rallies don't matter--pay attention to the polls?"
Posted by: RoyalOil, Vicroy Canadian Territories at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (445BJ)
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (AFSld)
===========
I live in SC.
I may stay home.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (q80AH)
Posted by: Morgan "Grabbin" Cox at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (5JRUh)
I read that.. He tells Tapper to "take her out" and skips some commercials to give him more time to attack.. Way to go puppet, I mean Tapper
Posted by: It's me donna at October 16, 2019 12:26 PM (O2RFr)
For at least one cycle, economic boom and outlandishly bad/freakish opposition party will avert disaster.
Posted by: rhomboid at October 16, 2019 12:26 PM (QDnY+)
It's getting more America First. Old labels have less meaning everyday.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:26 PM (ZLI7S)
Posted by: Captain Hate at October 16, 2019 12:26 PM (y7DUB)
___
It's consistently 65-35 Dem. I'd say that's a pretty decent block.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker
That's just the legal Hispanics. The illegal voting bloc is 125% - 0.
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 12:27 PM (Qq3ZN)
-----------
Well the Democrat did win.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:27 PM (sX1BW)
So who the fuck knows?
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:27 PM (FiUMj)
Posted by: Captain Hate at October 16, 2019 12:26 PM (y7DUB)
==========
He won a month after Access Hollywood in 2016.
The idea that he's going to do worse in 2020 is ridiculous.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:27 PM (q80AH)
Posted by: Derp State is in Deep Shit at October 16, 2019 12:27 PM (BqBId)
immunity is an age old solution to a very real problem. It exists for a
reason. To change it or make exceptions probably takes you down a road
where you just do things ad hoc.
It may not be completely just, but really nothing can be done.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (sX1BW)
She needs to voluntarily go back and face the consequences.
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:27 PM (CQ3Qb)
Sadly, yes. Some here know that I spent a lot of time on roads
across the USA back in the day, and CA was then starting to fall apart
compared w/other areas. Today, it's pathetic. Road in central Alabama
are generally better than in the LA basin (tho online twatterers will
claim otherwise)
Google earth street view of CA roads is enlightening. And not in a good way.
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (6qErC)
I'm looking at having to rebuild the front suspension in my car (under 150k and already done a full shock replacement) because of this. $4k. Tires, wheels, alignment - all toast at least once a year. Nothing like hitting a 6" deep hole at 80. And this is in the bay area. I can't even imagine driving my old Porsche anymore. I guess these clowns in their Teslas and low profile tires can afford to replace them once or twice a year.
I finally got a dashcam because I almost had a flying fence coming off of a mexiwagon come through my windshield. Dodging car parts, trash cans, bags of clippings and lawnmowers is all too common. Add to it the giant potholes and pathetic patching jobs where caltrans throws a bunch of hot blacktop out there and waits for the cars to pack it down. It's a freaking obstacle course out there now.
Posted by: clutch cargo at October 16, 2019 12:27 PM (Z1ykJ)
Posted by: Quint at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (n13/j)
the House - obviously. But given one or the other, I'd rather expand
the Senate. A couple extra Court confirmation votes is needed more than
anything.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:21 PM (sX1BW)
________
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (FASvy)
What if PDT actually breaks the normal voting patterns?
If PDT Gets 20-30% of African American voters?
40-50% of Hispanic voters?
I think that we are seeing a realignment of the traditional parties. The Democrats are getting the poor, government workers and self entitled elites; and the working class voters (low, middle, and high income) are moving to the Republican Party.
I hope I am right.
Posted by: rd at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (+0uDE)
_____________
It's getting more "gimme dat" and the Dims are determined to make it even more so, which is why they insist on open borders, unlimited "refugees," no immigration enforcement, no voter ID, etc.
Posted by: TrivialPursuer at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (k4dH2)
Posted by: IC at October 16, 2019 12:19 PM (a0IVu)
Drunk? Wouldn't surprise me. The fact that she fled speaks volumes.
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (QugKX)
Remember so much in 2016 was "rallies don't matter--pay attention to the polls?"
Posted by: RoyalOil, Vicroy Canadian Territories at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (445BJ)
------
I also think there are going to be a fair number of Independents that pulled the lever for Hillary in 2016 that when alone with their thoughts in the voting booth in 2020, are going to pull the lever for Trump.
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (8XRCm)
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (1XNk8)
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM
---
Yep, Trump can't lean on her to return to the UK or he looks like a bully. But it was the US embassy in the UK that asserted diplomatic immunity for her and had her flown out of the Country. There is more going on here than we are being told.
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (JUOKG)
Easier to "correct" the data.
Posted by: Bill Nye the "Science" Guy at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (pYQR/)
Wait, I read she stopped and comforted the kid?
Posted by: It's me donna at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (O2RFr)
Especially when "it's just been revoked."
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (AFSld)
___
With 2016's electorate, Reagan would have eeked out a victory in 1984. So yeah Mittens would have won yuuge. Trump would have won 400 EVs probably.
And every 4 years that electorate gets worse and worse for Republicans.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (FiUMj)
Posted by: Grimaldi at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (+XkAw)
But consider, who is telling you that? Polls? Polls by who? More than likely, by people who hate folks like you and want to damage your morale. If suburban white women were telling pollsters they overwhelmingly support Trump, do you think they'd honestly report that. And again, voting blocs. Ugh! See my post above.
Posted by: Agemt Cooper at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (iAwUQ)
Posted by: rhennigantx dont california my TEXAS at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (JFO2v)
Posted by: mjc at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (Pg+x7)
For beginnings, 12 our of 10 Americans neither know nor care what makes gas prices do what they do, will argue with industry insiders, deny technical factors, and strongly suspect right here in our pages that a certain ethnicity is involved. Which is to say I call bullshit. Except?
When 20 out of 20 of your candidates just last night announced on national TV "damn right we're going to quintuple gas prices, and may make the combustion engine illegal, too!" you are not going to vote Dem because you think you have too much "pain at the pump" FFS.
Posted by: Stringer Davis at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (8ZmvG)
Posted by: Captain Hate at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (y7DUB)
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (CqQJR)
This is simply not true, specifically because the people being observed aren't even the same people that Moodys sampled in prior elections, and the ones that are change.
This sort of thing strikes me as curve-fitting. It works perfectly well until it doesn't, and then it's very easy to say "of course! We didn't account for X" So then you account for X next time, except next time, it's Y that's the thing you didn't account for.
Posted by: joe, living dangerously at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (KUaJL)
A Dem House in 2020 =Impeachment etc for four more years.
Mitt Romney's niece(head of the RNC....dont get me started) MUST regain the house--which Paul Ryan and the GOPe , with malice and forethought, threw to the enemies of the Constitution in 2018.
What does Moody's say about the House?
Posted by: Voter theater. at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (5BVHO)
I read that.. He tells Tapper to "take her out" and skips some commercials to give him more time to attack.. Way to go puppet, I mean Tapper
Posted by: It's me donna at October 16, 2019 12:26 PM (O2RFr)
---------------
Gee, "square shooter" Tapper isn't the bastion of integrity he's long claimed?
Shocked, I am not...
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (qC1Sy)
Posted by: NativeNH at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (koJFD)
Wait a sec - is this the crash from a couple of months ago? And it's just now "newz"?
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:30 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:30 PM (AFSld)
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:30 PM (1XNk8)
Posted by: Guy Smiley at October 16, 2019 12:30 PM (1XNk8)
Posted by: Winston Wolf at October 16, 2019 12:30 PM (88+cf)
None and I mean none of any candidate running has that star power
Something like black turnout 10-20 points higher than ever before.
That is what the polls all got wrong about 2016--they assumed that was the norm.
That, and they didn't think the white, working class would vote.
Both assumptions are still being used ....
Posted by: RoyalOil, Vicroy Canadian Territories at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (445BJ)
Posted by: Cheri at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (oiNtH)
isn't from shakespeare. it can be found in variants in ancient rome and greece, perhaps as far back as homer.
Posted by: mjc at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (Pg+x7)
Said it earlier today but the House is as important as Trump. It''s a package deal.
A Dem House in 2020 =Impeachment etc for four more years.
Mitt Romney's niece(head of the RNC....dont get me started) MUST
regain the house--which Paul Ryan and the GOPe , with malice and
forethought, threw to the enemies of the Constitution in 2018.
What does Moody's say about the House?
Posted by: Voter theater. at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (5BVHO)
The entire House is up for re-election. Can anyone imagine a scenario where Trump wins but the House stays Dem? I can't.
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (CQ3Qb)
but in every election so far, Hispanics have the lowest general turnout
of any sector of the population. Sure, that could change - but it
hasn't happened yet.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM
---
Trump will get more black vote than he got in 2016. His approval has doubled with blacks since his election.
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (JUOKG)
-------
Agreed. That poll of AA's last week reported "only" 15% support among AA's. That's double of 2016! However, digging into the internals, trump had 30% support among black men. They had to over sample black women, two to one, over men to get the poll results down to 15% support.
Dem's are in Trouble.
Posted by: WisRich at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (G0vdT)
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (AFSld)
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM (CQ3Qb)
Was her husband a Trump appointee, or an Obama holdover?
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (QugKX)
Posted by: Boswell at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (32YRo)
Posted by: Mitt Romney at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (qAR6u)
The parents of the kid who was killed met with Trump at the White House last night.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (ZLI7S)
. But the odd time I get into a discussion, everyone who loved Trump then loves him now and everyone who hated him then hates him now. I haven't personally seen anyone switch sides.Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:32 PM (FiUMj)
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:24 PM (FiUMj)
Compared to the usual 90-10 black vote? Now THAT's a voting block. That's why it'll be a huge deal if Trump can get it just down to 80-20.
btw in Texas, the hispanic vote has been more like 60/40 Dem.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:32 PM (Kpl3J)
I *think* the play is to get the Hispanic, primarily immigrant, population to register to vote and then use that for voter fraud, such as. . . ACORN offering to "help" them vote (choose candidates for them), beefing up the voter rolls so that "found in car trunk" fraudulent ballots cast look less suspicious, more mail-in ballots out on the streets to be scooped up and cast, and now in CA, ballot harvesting.
The Democrats have pioneered a variety of voter fraud methods, but a lot of it is enabled by having a lot more people on the voter rolls than legitimate votes cast. Therefore, Hispanic voters - the real ones - not actually voting is a feature, not a bug.
Posted by: Lizzy at October 16, 2019 12:32 PM (bDqIh)
Posted by: Voter theater. at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (5BVHO)
It has four doors.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 16, 2019 12:32 PM (jYnPD)
All Moody's does is say, "if the economy remains good, then Trump's chances are good." Duh.
Otoh, I take great encouragement from the RAS Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. It's 50/49 today, which is definitely a re-elect number--- because of the maldistribution of DEM votes (I don't CARE whether Warren wins CA by 70% or only 60%.)
Regarding 2020 turnout, Warren has to have an AA running mate. The Obama-level record AA turnout is inconceivable without that-- & may be inconceivable even WITH that.
In 2 recent elections, AA turnout was poor-- in NC-09, & again in the LA jungle primary last Saturday.
Posted by: Cards fanatic (mnw) at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (Cssks)
Posted by: Jeff Zucker in CNN control room at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (786Ro)
Posted by: Joe Biden at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (pw+jk)
Thin as the compassion in Felonia Pantsuit's alleged heart.
Posted by: Voter theater. at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (5BVHO)
immunity is an age old solution to a very real problem. It exists for a
reason. To change it or make exceptions probably takes you down a road
where you just do things ad hoc.
It may not be completely just, but really nothing can be done.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (sX1BW)
She needs to voluntarily go back and face the consequences.
--------------
Why?
She has Diplomatic Immunity. To lean on her to do that is to set a bad precedent.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (sX1BW)
your morale. If suburban white women were telling pollsters they
overwhelmingly support Trump, do you think they'd honestly report that.
And again, voting blocs. Ugh! See my post above.
Posted by: Agemt Cooper at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (iAwUQ)
That is true. In the blue areas I visit, they are playing with a double sided coin. The R's don't get to support their candidate or risk property damage. "Only one side gets to express their views in blue areas. They are kinda like HK. I do fear the wine moms as they are impressionable. But no doubt a ton of them are lying and really will vote Trump.
Posted by: Quint at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (n13/j)
Romney could fuck up a two car funeral.
Posted by: Captain Hate at October 16, 2019 12:29 PM (y7DUB)
LOL! I'm totally stealing that.
Posted by: Agemt Cooper at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (iAwUQ)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (ZLI7S)
It may not be completely just, but really nothing can be done.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:25 PM (sX1BW)
Trump should apply pressure to her and her husband to voluntarily waive immunity and face the music.
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (QugKX)
So here is a great chart (warning nyt, I didn't read the words, but give credit where its due) showing the time the dem dummies were given in their debate. Most interesting was who got to talk about what - man, they hate gabbard.
https://tinyurl.com/y2zd6bro
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (r+sAi)
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (CQ3Qb)
__
Hello!!
Posted by: 2012, 1996, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1972, 1968, 1956 at October 16, 2019 12:34 PM (FiUMj)
Neither did Pauline Kael.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (ZLI7S)
=========
I never liked her...
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:34 PM (q80AH)
btw in Texas, the hispanic vote has been more like 60/40 Dem.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:32 PM (Kpl3J)
--------------
Yeah, Dems have long shivered at the idea of losing the black vote, because it means the end of their party. Probably also explains why Dems are so hot to import illegals because they probably are trying to replace the black vote they are in danger of losing.
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:34 PM (qC1Sy)
He never belabors a point that he's not already won.
Posted by: t-bird at October 16, 2019 12:34 PM (dBiBP)
Think of the pressure on Muslims from their communities with regard to apostasy - the Cult of the Wine Mom doesn't actually behead people for voting Republican, but does the social equivalent.
And for women with no jobs, whose kids are constantly being looked after by the school, or the soccer coach, or the piano teacher, all they have is pink zin, and shopping with their lady-friends at Restoration Hardware.
And, of course, me.
Posted by: The Paolo at October 16, 2019 12:34 PM (AzW6q)
Posted by: Fritz at October 16, 2019 12:34 PM (kLDv+)
This is precisely what went wrong for Hillary. They assumed a lower turnout, hit all of their projected vote totals and still lost because of the turnout from Trump voters.
Posted by: MJ at October 16, 2019 12:35 PM (LQtHg)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:35 PM (ZLI7S)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 16, 2019 12:35 PM (vpUwx)
I wonder about that. Maybe they publicize that so that they can ALWAYS jimmy the results in those precincts to match everybody's expectations.
Posted by: t-bird at October 16, 2019 12:35 PM (dBiBP)
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 12:36 PM (fiE3h)
That's a tiny part of the picture - state and local taxes are another part, and Diesel (due to it being bad/or something) is further burdened with other costs (the "bio" regs, etc.)
The actual "price" at the pump has little to do with the associated production costs.
Ain't government grand?
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:36 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: 2012, 1996, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1972, 1968, 1956 at October 16, 2019 12:36 PM (FiUMj)
------------
Seems like a bad precedent to set and unnecessary.
Perhaps, I do not know the full scale of what transpired.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:36 PM (sX1BW)
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:31 PM (CQ3Qb)
That always comes down to candidate selection, and I'm not convinced that the Republicans have been doing a very good job there. (but I don't know that for sure)
One of the things ignored about the 2018 election is that Paul Ryan and 40 rino pals intentionally sabotaged the House race by all retiring too late for any strong candidates to jump in and take their places. They guaranteed the Dems were going to win, and Ryan has admitted that he quit because he hated having to work with Trump.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:36 PM (Kpl3J)
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 16, 2019 12:37 PM (cqNba)
Posted by: Ever at October 16, 2019 12:37 PM (ZZDMQ)
>>He never belabors a point that he's not already won.
As I've been saying, the real meat of what Trump was asking for in his call with Zelensky was Crowdstrike and "the server", not Biden. Just like he did today.
I'm more convinced he set this whole thing up to get the focus on that.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:37 PM (ZLI7S)
Posted by: Cards fanatic (mnw) at October 16, 2019 12:37 PM (Cssks)
Posted by: Vlad at October 16, 2019 12:37 PM (v0R5T)
More than a few are retiring soon, too. It's like a big F.U. to Trump.
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:37 PM (AFSld)
Doubt any of us do
Posted by: It's me donna at October 16, 2019 12:37 PM (O2RFr)
-------------
Yes - quite easily as a matter of fact.
It is what I expect.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:37 PM (sX1BW)
Lemon Fresh Pledge.
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:38 PM (6qErC)
SECONDED!
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:38 PM (AFSld)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 16, 2019 12:38 PM (vpUwx)
Not ambassador's wife. Some suggest he is CIA.
Wikipedia has more details.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 16, 2019 12:38 PM (jYnPD)
Posted by: Mayor Pete at October 16, 2019 12:39 PM (AFSld)
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 16, 2019 12:39 PM (jYnPD)
Posted by: Boswell at October 16, 2019 12:39 PM (32YRo)
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:37 PM (sX1BW)
I don't think so but it could happen.
Posted by: MAC SOG'''' at October 16, 2019 12:39 PM (P4Pk9)
Posted by: WisRich at October 16, 2019 12:39 PM (G0vdT)
Posted by: Nearsighted Cyclops at October 16, 2019 12:39 PM (B06Zw)
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:36 PM (Kpl3J)
-------------
Yeah, those jackals are precisely the reason we've got impeachment circus.
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:39 PM (qC1Sy)
Posted by: WisRich at October 16, 2019 12:39 PM (G0vdT)
========
Of course he did.
It was mentioned here.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:39 PM (q80AH)
Posted by: rhomboid at October 16, 2019 12:40 PM (QDnY+)
Posted by: Ladyl at October 16, 2019 12:40 PM (TdMsT)
Posted by: mushroom maniac at October 16, 2019 12:40 PM (FEQY4)
And now's he's ruined Fox News.
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:40 PM (AFSld)
My word as a Biden.
Posted by: Joe Biden at October 16, 2019 12:41 PM (pw+jk)
September retail sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.3 percent.
Never underestimate the ability of the American voter to agree to lose their jobs and have their taxes raised because they don't like the way the President behaves.
Posted by: mercenary13 at October 16, 2019 12:41 PM (+VjxJ)
Posted by: rhomboid at October 16, 2019 12:40 PM (QDnY+)
=========
Another factor is the Libertarian Party.
Historically, they took in about 1% of the electorate.
In 2016, they got 3.2%.
Where did that extra 2.2% come from?
My guess? Republican voters. Will the Libertarian Party revert to their mean and get 1% again in 2020? I have a feeling that's not out of bounds. Where do those 2.2% go again? Probably back to the Republican Party.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:41 PM (q80AH)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (ZLI7S)
Posted by: Victor Tango Kilo at October 16, 2019 12:00 PM (O7MnT) "
Of course not, those are things that don't officially exist.
Posted by: sock_rat_eez at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (wscsn)
*well, everyone except, apparently, President Trump who seems to be utterly ignoring it
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (KZzsI)
Posted by: Grump928(C) at October 16, 2019 12:38 PM
Not quite yet.
Posted by: Winston Wolf at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (ejd/p)
----------
A true conservative should love it. Trump takes all the bullets for you. He's the lighting rod. It was a role that Ryan was not suited for.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (sX1BW)
You'd think every politician would realize insulting the voters isn't a good idea, but they don't seem to.
Posted by: zmdavid at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (xqRaG)
>>It was mentioned here.
Nothing is happening.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (ZLI7S)
========
Trump's gonna be totes okay with Barr declining to prosecute anyone.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (q80AH)
OT, but maybe not, it looks like Trump has the DNC server. He's
pounding on "the Servers" at some press conference. The election models
haven't taken that into account yet.
He never belabors a point that he's not already won.
Posted by: t-bird at October 16, 2019 12:34 PM (dBiBP)
________
Don't tease my schadenboner, bro!
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (zI60C)
She has Diplomatic Immunity. To lean on her to do that is to set a bad precedent.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:33 PM (sX1BW)
Why? Because it's the right thing to do and would protect the precedent. Nowhere did I say Trump should lean on her to do that.
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (CQ3Qb)
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: Fritz at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (kLDv+)
Here's what has happened in Texas for the last 25 years. It's a shame that elections can be so predictable by group, but it's the race-baiting and race hucksterism that the Dems have been engaging in that has caused it.
In Texas, for the last 25 years, the vote has been
Black - 90/10 Dem
Hispanic - 40/60 Dem
White - 80/20 GOP
when you add up those numbers in relation to the numbers of how many of each group vote in each election, you get Texas, 56% Rep over and over and over. You can see why the Dem "solution" to this problem for them is to get more and more hispanics and to cause them to vote at a higher and higher rate.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:43 PM (Kpl3J)
Posted by: MJ at October 16, 2019 12:43 PM (LQtHg)
Perhaps, I do not know the full scale of what transpired.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:36 PM (sX1BW)
I disagree. Diplomatic immunity was instituted to protect diplomats from being harassed by petty bullshit, politically-motivated charges. Nobody is disputing that this woman caused the death of a person owing to a driving infraction.
The best way to preserve diplomatic immunity is to not use it as an escape hatch for actual wrongdoing.
Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at October 16, 2019 12:43 PM (QugKX)
Huh. Local newz has it as "less than 0.1" percent.
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:43 PM (6qErC)
_______________
Wait . . . when did we stop?
Posted by: Petey Butt-gig at October 16, 2019 12:43 PM (k4dH2)
After three years of hell, he just says, Nah, bra? I don't get that reasoning at all.
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:43 PM (AFSld)
They are also not a block the way black people are , so among the ones who do vote, you will see it about 70-30% Democrat.
But with Trump it will be more like 60/40.
That's a plus.
Posted by: JoeF. at October 16, 2019 12:44 PM (NFEMn)
After three years of hell, he just says, Nah, bra? I don't get that reasoning at all.
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:43 PM (AFSld)
==========
You obviously also don't get sarcasm.
Jeez.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:44 PM (q80AH)
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans
used to happen all the time until Hillary managed to cause the dems to lose the House for the first time in half a century with HildogCare.
Posted by: x at October 16, 2019 12:44 PM (nFwvY)
I agree with everything you say, but I think a lot of Trump supporters go to his rallies for the snark and mocking, too!
Posted by: Velvet glove, iron fist at October 16, 2019 12:45 PM (vqPyn)
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:01 PM (JUOKG)
They will. But, if Trump can finish up the China trade deal, he should be bulletproof.
Posted by: Guy Smiley
________________________
Dominoes are starting to fall. The first received little fanfare. That was the tentative deal with Japan, not China. The Pacific Rim, all of a sudden, started rolling with that deal...and China can't afford to sit back and watch Japan and the US start adding member states to that deal from the previous annulled Pacific Rim Trade Group (Trump removed the US from that early on). The Philippines, Australia, S. Korea etc. When the #1 economy and the #3 economy on the planet form a deal, the #2 economy has to pay attention.
What's next? Well, watch the activity in N. Korea. That's tied very closely to the economic negotiations. China is going to need a brand new market to fill the void. Turns out N. Korea is interested in coming out of the Stone Age. So, the US walks away firmly in control of the Pacific Rim with a renegotiated deal. China opens up N. Korea to the market (which means, eventually they will add S. Korea to their majority trade). A much safer world because now it is in the best interest of China to keep N. Korea on the straight and narrow so as to create a stable economic scenario. It's golden.
Posted by: Orson at October 16, 2019 12:45 PM (gsqjI)
Also, I think it's significant that turnout in LA was 20% higher last Saturday than in 2015, when JBE won the first time. Because impeachment... & because Trump.
Posted by: Cards fanatic (mnw) at October 16, 2019 12:45 PM (Cssks)
Posted by: brak at October 16, 2019 12:45 PM (rOcIE)
Posted by: Fritz at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (kLDv+)
..........
Drudge thinks he did.
Posted by: wth at October 16, 2019 12:45 PM (v0R5T)
--------------------------------
Mostly due to drops in gas prices.
Posted by: MJ at October 16, 2019 12:45 PM (LQtHg)
Get it well broken in.
Offer rides in November, 2020, to help get out the vote.
Posted by: Duncanthrax at October 16, 2019 12:45 PM (DMUuz)
-------------
She didn't intentionally murder someone or commit a crime.
She made a mistake - yes a very poor and costly one.
But to me this would not be an appropriate case for the US to waive DI.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:45 PM (sX1BW)
Not ambassador's wife."
"diplomatic immunity" covers most "other government employee"
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (6qErC)
Under certain conditions that remain to be seen whether they were in place at the time.
The wife was ready to meet the parents at the WH, when they were there. They declined and said it was too soon and should happen on UK soil.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 16, 2019 12:46 PM (jYnPD)
A wise choice. Don't assume you've won just because your boot is on the other guy's neck. Declare victory after you've cremated the remains and scattered the ashes in an unknown location.
Posted by: Brother Cavil
Pixy don't like character codes in nics
at October 16, 2019 12:46 PM (AM1GF)
Sorry, but since so few heads have ever rolled, I am a fatalist.
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:46 PM (AFSld)
That whole "Drain The Swamp" thing that I think I heard Trump mention once was just talk. Trump never does what he says he's going to do.
Particularly when people go after him, his family and supporters and calls them traitors. He's totally cool with that.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:46 PM (ZLI7S)
They want Biden and fear they will get Warren.
They have a tough time with Warren due to her "medicare for all" plan killing a big selling point for the union.
Posted by: Horus Hearsay at October 16, 2019 12:46 PM (DB16e)
Mayor Senor Pete Buiootijudgdgdg won because he's been practicing how to sound all Presidential.
Posted by: Rev. Dr. Joe Biden at October 16, 2019 12:46 PM (lg/F7)
Black - 90/10 Dem
Hispanic - 40/60 Dem
White - 80/20 GOP
when you add up those numbers in relation to the numbers of how many of each group vote in each election, you get Texas, 56% Rep over and over and over. You can see why the Dem "solution" to this problem for them is to get more and more hispanics and to cause them to vote at a higher and higher rate.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:43 PM (Kpl3J)
But wouldn't the influx of more illegal immigrants perhaps push some of the more "established" Hispanics into the (R) column--the ones who aren't already there?
Posted by: JoeF. at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM (NFEMn)
That whole "Drain The Swamp" thing that I think I heard Trump mention once was just talk. Trump never does what he says he's going to do.
Particularly when people go after him, his family and supporters and calls them traitors. He's totally cool with that.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:46 PM (ZLI7S)
========
I always thought he was a cool dude. Just not that cool.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM (q80AH)
SUCCESS - CNN
Posted by: wth at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM (v0R5T)
Posted by: sniffybigtoe at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM (xfb67)
We will run a flanking maneuver around the Vaginot line of woman candidates, and strike the field from behind!
2020 is ours!
Posted by: Buttzkrieg 2020 at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM (AzW6q)
Otherwise, lolgf, diplomatic immunity.
Posted by: sock_rat_eez at October 16, 2019 12:48 PM (wscsn)
We will run a flanking maneuver around the Vaginot line of woman candidates, and strike the field from behind!
2020 is ours!
Posted by: Buttzkrieg 2020 at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM (AzW6q)
--------------
LOL!
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:48 PM (qC1Sy)
Sorry, but since so few heads have ever rolled, I am a fatalist.
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:46 PM (AFSld)
-----
You are way too young to be so cynical.
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:48 PM (8XRCm)
Personally, I suspect that's so, based on reactions of friends and family... "illegals" aren't the "winning" topic anymore.
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (6qErC)
And they always *say* they are going to get huge hispanic turnout, but in every election so far, Hispanics have the lowest general turnout of any sector of the population. Sure, that could change - but it hasn't happened yet.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:20 PM
Dirty little secret--many of them are not citizens. And I don't mean illegals either. Vast numbers are perfectly legal Resident Aliens. See also a good many Asian Americans.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Sooner at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (Fs5vw)
Turned 50 in April. I think that turned on the switch.
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (AFSld)
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (Kpl3J)
Another factor is the Libertarian Party.
Historically, they took in about 1% of the electorate.
In 2016, they got 3.2%.
Where did that extra 2.2% come from?
My guess? Republican voters. Will the Libertarian Party revert to their mean and get 1% again in 2020? I have a feeling that's not out of bounds. Where do those 2.2% go again? Probably back to the Republican Party.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:41 PM (q80AH)
Libertarian is a worthless vote when you have Warren or Sanders up there. I wanna be free to smoke dope. I like free immigration. I like sticking otters up my ass.
A vote for Lib party is a vote for Liawatha!
Posted by: rhennigantx dont california my TEXAS at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (JFO2v)
Posted by: Horus Hearsay at October 16, 2019 12:46 PM (DB16e)
Ted Kennedy killed Nixoncare for this reason.
Posted by: zmdavid at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (xqRaG)
The entire family is protected by diplomatic immunity on foreign soil. This stupid lady has put Trump in a bit of a bind.
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 16, 2019 12:23 PM
---
Yep, Trump can't lean on her to return to the UK or he looks like a bully. But it was the US embassy in the UK that asserted diplomatic immunity for her and had her flown out of the Country. There is more going on here than we are being told.
Posted by: Mr. Scott (Formerly GWS) at October 16, 2019 12:28 PM (JUOKG)
Fuck the embassy. She needs to go back and be arraigned in a British court (or however they do it). THEN she can assert diplomatic immunity, and the Limeys can PNG her and have the SAS publicly frog-march the wench onto a flight at Heathrow.
The UK is nominally an ally, and while immunity does apply, just being able to walk away like that from the scene of the crime/accident isn't conducive to amicable relations.
Embassy personnel in more hostile countries are something different.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (veoSD)
Slow Joe Biden was even more incoherent and rambling than the one before.
Posted by: Jukin the Deplorable and Profoundly Unserious at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (pw+jk)
Where's the fun in that?
/TheLeft
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:50 PM (6qErC)
My guess? Republican voters. Will the Libertarian Party revert to their mean and get 1% again in 2020? I have a feeling that's not out of bounds. Where do those 2.2% go again? Probably back to the Republican Party.
That's my read as well, people who saw no good option for them and went libertarian because hell, how much worse could it be? I think quite a few Republicans voted third party or stayed home, that will definitely not next time.
The question is, however: how many Democrats blew off last time because for crying out loud, Hillary? Really? And besides, Trump had no chance, right?
So it might be a push.
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 16, 2019 12:50 PM (KZzsI)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:50 PM (ZLI7S)
What does the Cooz and Shoes Battalion of the Chinese Basketball Association have to say about this?
Has Bwave Widdle Soldier LaBrea come out of hiding yet?
Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at October 16, 2019 12:50 PM (pNxlR)
with respect to the tragic death in the UK, I think the right thing to
do is to have the US Government accept liability and pay that boy's
family for the loss, but protect the principle of Diplomatic Immunity
and shield the employee's wife. Nothing can bring the boy back, and
there's no point in seeking vengeance on her for what clearly appears to
be an accident.
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (Kpl3J)
Agreed.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 16, 2019 12:50 PM (jYnPD)
Posted by: Cheri at October 16, 2019 12:50 PM (oiNtH)
Huh. Local newz has it as "less than 0.1" percent.
To be fair, -0.3 percent is less than -0.1 percent. (Yeah, I know I'm cheating a little)
Posted by: t-bird at October 16, 2019 12:51 PM (EYsyU)
Posted by: JoeF. at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM (NFEMn)
Wait - are you suggesting that the Dem's Clever Plans may not work because they didn't think them all the way through?
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:51 PM (Kpl3J)
#Brexit agreement being finalized, says @EmmanuelMacron.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:50 PM (ZLI7S)
No! Hard Brexit!
Posted by: joncelli, because somebody had to at October 16, 2019 12:51 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: BourbonChicken at October 16, 2019 12:51 PM (gr6nJ)
Slow Joe Biden was even more incoherent and rambling than the one before.
Posted by: Jukin the Deplorable and Profoundly Unserious at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (pw+jk)
-------
The potato salad's gone bad, bitches!
Posted by: Rick James at October 16, 2019 12:51 PM (AzW6q)
---------
Would agree. I'm sure the UK is trying to get something - for the victim's family and probably for UK itself.
With Brexit coming, the UK will need the US .
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:51 PM (sX1BW)
He told some ESPN twat he "wasn't a politicians" and won't talk about it anymore. Of course, he'll still rip Orange Man Bad, because LOLGF
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:51 PM (AFSld)
EM PEACH FOADDY FIDE!!!
(I do miss Mad Max's hair)
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:52 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (veoSD)
The UK did participate willingly in the attempt at overthrowing a democratically elected U.S. President. I would say that qualifies as pretty hostile.
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 16, 2019 12:52 PM (jYnPD)
Historically, they took in about 1% of the electorate.
In 2016, they got 3.2%.
Where did that extra 2.2% come from?
My guess? Republican voters. Will the Libertarian Party revert to
their mean and get 1% again in 2020? I have a feeling that's not out of
bounds. Where do those 2.2% go again? Probably back to the Republican
Party.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:41 PM (q80AH)
__________
David French Toast/Egg McMuffin FTW!
Seriously though, salient point.
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 12:52 PM (Ywny1)
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM
I found out about that, too.
Posted by: Jeb! at October 16, 2019 12:52 PM (DMUuz)
Snort.
Posted by: Anon a mouse at October 16, 2019 12:52 PM (6qErC)
Posted by: Buttzkrieg 2020 at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM (AzW6q)
ha
Posted by: m at October 16, 2019 12:53 PM (mon3V)
Posted by: zmdavid at October 16, 2019 12:42 PM (xqRaG)
__
Meh. I don't give a shit what politicians say. I care about actions. Call me an asshole 24/7 but cut my taxes, and you have my vote.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:53 PM (FiUMj)
You won't believe this but Joe has been lying for the last 40 years. The truck driver was not drunk and tragically it was his wife who caused the accident by swerving into the oncoming truck.
He should have stayed retired.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2019 12:54 PM (ZLI7S)
Posted by: Huck Follywood, a low grade social fever at October 16, 2019 12:54 PM (LISuA)
Posted by: m at October 16, 2019 12:54 PM (mon3V)
Posted by: mikeyG at October 16, 2019 12:54 PM (c9LgJ)
Posted by: Buttzkrieg 2020 at October 16, 2019 12:47 PM
aka Surprise!
Posted by: Yep, that again at October 16, 2019 12:54 PM (DMUuz)
Posted by: Cheri at October 16, 2019 12:50 PM (oiNtH)
.........
Bernie's election coffin will be made by government workers and will be over budget and behind schedule. They'll have to bury him in a burlap sack.
Posted by: wth at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (v0R5T)
Posted by: washrivergal at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (sIyWR)
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:49 PM (AFSld)
----
I thought we were all 29 here. Or is that just the 'ettes?
Posted by: Linn Ridge at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (ECrgQ)
You won't believe this but Joe has been lying for the last 40 years. The truck driver was not drunk and tragically it was his wife who caused the accident by swerving into the oncoming truck.
He should have stayed retired.
=======
Hasn't the family on several occasions sent him cease and desist letters about making the claim? He truly is a sick bastard.
Posted by: bicentennialguy at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (vg8iE)
Posted by: blake - used pronoun salesman
at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (qC1Sy)
The press conference is starting now!
CBS News Radio @CBSNewsRadio
President Trump & Italian President Sergio Mattarella will be holding a presser around noon ET.
Posted by: Derp State is in Deep Shit at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (BqBId)
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (AFSld)
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:53 PM (FiUMj)
Most voters are more emotional than that.
Posted by: zmdavid at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (xqRaG)
----------
Nor does a trial regarding an accident in which a host country's citizens seek more "justice" that we in this country believe to be justified.
I don't know if that would happen, but DI can appease those passions. Yes, it can also enflame them.
At the end of the day, this appears to be a tragic accident - not a voluntary crime.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (sX1BW)
Posted by: Low Information Voter, Vivo CNN! at October 16, 2019 12:07 PM (xnvzL)
51
Trumps wins re-election.
Left wrath focuses not on Trump and his administration.....
.... but on Trump VOTERS. The stupid racist Bible thumping sister fuckers will have RUINED the country.
And they must PAY for it. With blood.
Mark my words.
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2019 12:07 PM (8XRCm) "
Oh, I believe that like I believe in tomorrow's sunrise, which is why I'm firmly on the "buy guns and ammo" and "head on a swivel and a Mattis plan" bandwagon.
Even if a PDT win doesn't immediately snapcase them, there's still the more-or-less inevitable day when they get back in power.
Posted by: sock_rat_eez at October 16, 2019 12:56 PM (wscsn)
Posted by: Tom Servo at October 16, 2019 12:56 PM (Kpl3J)
What does the Cooz and Shoes Battalion of the Chinese Basketball Association have to say about this?
Has Bwave Widdle Soldier LaBrea come out of hiding yet?
Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM) at October 16, 2019 12:50 PM (pNxlR)
_________
Quoting from one of his heroes, Dr. King: "Trump anywhere is a threat to Chinese and my millions everywhere."
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 12:56 PM (Ywny1)
Rally attendance seemed to predict 2016 more than gas prices.
Whoever gets the dem nomination will have trouble packing elementary school gyms. If not, I will wonder what kind of person is driving next to me for a while.
Posted by: Denny Crane! at October 16, 2019 12:56 PM (C2haE)
I don't think Trump will lose any votes and will pick some up as he is now a known quantity with the Great Trump Boom.
Posted by: x at October 16, 2019 12:57 PM (nFwvY)
Posted by: joe, living dangerously at October 16, 2019 12:57 PM (KUaJL)
Posted by: Wile E. Coyote Progtards at October 16, 2019 12:57 PM (4Eo4+)
Winning status.
x not tired
tired
Posted by: USNtakim profoundly deplorable. at October 16, 2019 12:58 PM (0OmEj)
Posted by: Wile E. Coyote Progtards at October 16, 2019 12:57 PM (4Eo4+)
=========
Suggested edit.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, with that Kubrick look towards the camera at October 16, 2019 12:58 PM (q80AH)
If I were in charge of the cameras, it would be pure closeups on Biden. His blood pressure last night looked to be about 400/250. Ask him about his truck driver lie and he is going to bleed from both eyeballs at once.
Posted by: t-bird at October 16, 2019 12:58 PM (cfSLd)
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 16, 2019 12:59 PM (r+sAi)
Posted by: Fritz at October 16, 2019 12:59 PM (kLDv+)
He should have stayed retired.
Posted by: JackStraw
That has always really bothered me. The guy's family begged Joe to stop publicly saying that their husband/father "drank his lunch" as he was sober. Of course, he wouldn't stop and I believe used it as campaign sympathy fodder for reelection.
Posted by: Cheri at October 16, 2019 12:59 PM (oiNtH)
Posted by: zmdavid at October 16, 2019 12:59 PM (xqRaG)
----------
Seems fair.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2019 01:00 PM (sX1BW)
Posted by: rhomboid at October 16, 2019 01:00 PM (QDnY+)
That just cracks me up so much.
They picked the oldest, whitest guy in the race to back. The guy who just had a freaking heart attack and is clearly unable to serve as president. That was their genius choice
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 16, 2019 01:01 PM (KZzsI)
Posted by: zmdavid at October 16, 2019 12:59 PM
Meh. I updated the concept, and sent JamesTaylor Khan.
Posted by: John Heinz-Kerry at October 16, 2019 01:02 PM (DMUuz)
That just cracks me up so much.
They picked the oldest, whitest guy in the race to back. The guy who just had a freaking heart attack and is clearly unable to serve as president. That was their genius choice
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor
What's even funnier?
The Broad Squad OF COLOR picked the lily white guy.
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 01:03 PM (Qq3ZN)
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor at October 16, 2019 01:04 PM (KZzsI)
The Broad Squad has endorsed Sanders for President.
That just cracks me up so much.
They picked the oldest, whitest guy in the race to back. The guy who just had a freaking heart attack and is clearly unable to serve as president. That was their genius choice
they're just playing n-dimensional chess:
1) back Bernie Sanders
2) ????
3) Hillary! is president.
Posted by: Anachronda at October 16, 2019 01:04 PM (sGtp+)
At a red light yesterday, was behind a vehicle with no less than 4 Trump
bumper stickers. Even though it was an excruciatingly long signal, it
was also an instant mood up-lifter.
Posted by: washrivergal at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (sIyWR)
_________
Been seeing quite a few bumper stickers and t-shirts here in Northern AZ that always make me chuckle: LGBT, Liberty, Guns, Beer, and Trump
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 01:04 PM (Ywny1)
Posted by: Christopher R Taylor
===
But Bernie must pick colored person of vagina gender, Kamalatoe "I Suck Dick" Harris for VP.
Posted by: Jukin the Deplorable and Profoundly Unserious at October 16, 2019 01:04 PM (pw+jk)
Posted by: Cheri
Why isn't that slander?
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2019 01:05 PM (Qq3ZN)
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 12:53 PM (FiUMj)
Most voters are more emotional than that.
Posted by: zmdavid at October 16, 2019 12:55 PM (xqRaG)
__
And that's a big part of the problem. Too much emotion, not enough thinking.
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 01:05 PM (FiUMj)
It's pushing things too hard to relate that assignment to the cause of the crash. It is easy enough, in stressful driving situations, to get on the wrong side of the road, disgraceful as it may seem. A truly great US motorcycle road racer, in an open-road practice session at Isle of Man, reverted to the wrong lane after a curve, did a head-on, and has been paralyzed for decades.
The Englishman was riding a Kawasaki. It took a lot of reading to find that. Had he been on a Norton, I'm afraid I would have had quite a heavy bias.
Posted by: Stringer Davis at October 16, 2019 01:06 PM (8ZmvG)
Posted by: Lurking Lurker - Not In My Purview at October 16, 2019 01:05 PM (FiUMj)
I'm not disagreeing, but it is what it is.
Posted by: zmdavid at October 16, 2019 01:07 PM (xqRaG)
family begged Joe to stop publicly saying that their husband/father
"drank his lunch" as he was sober. Of course, he wouldn't stop and I
believe used it as campaign sympathy fodder for reelection.
Posted by: Cheri at October 16, 2019 12:59 PM (oiNtH)
_________
The family should have sued his ass into bankruptcy. Get Lin Wood on the case ...
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 01:08 PM (Ywny1)
Posted by: Stringer Davis at October 16, 2019 01:09 PM (8ZmvG)
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 01:11 PM (Ywny1)
Posted by: ShainS at October 16, 2019 01:11 PM (Ywny1)
No, I've been commenting (infrequently) here for a long time, but I'm not involved enough to know all the regulars.
Posted by: zmdavid at October 16, 2019 01:14 PM (xqRaG)
Posted by: ShainS
Potato Salad Joe used to be the poorest guy in Senate he claimed. Probably not anymore. They should get him to say it again.
Posted by: x at October 16, 2019 01:15 PM (nFwvY)
Posted by: Somewhere on Ventura Highway at October 16, 2019 01:21 PM (M+Lyo)
Posted by: flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner at October 16, 2019 01:21 PM (jYnPD)
Posted by: John Kerry tanned, rested and ready at October 16, 2019 01:24 PM (SqopC)
If Bernie picks Hillary to be VP that's a pretty good plan.
Posted by: xnycpeasant at October 16, 2019 01:26 PM (SqopC)
Posted by: LGoPs the former boyscout who now shouts Broken Arrow!, Broken Arrow! at October 16, 2019 12:15 PM (68SQp)
They cheat to the max all the time now. Little need to fear that they find new ways to do so this time, with the DNC broke and a sap as the candidate.
Posted by: Oldcat at October 16, 2019 01:31 PM (FTPn0)
What's next? Well, watch the activity in N. Korea. That's tied very closely to the economic negotiations. China is going to need a brand new market to fill the void. Turns out N. Korea is interested in coming out of the Stone Age. So, the US walks away firmly in control of the Pacific Rim with a renegotiated deal. China opens up N. Korea to the market (which means, eventually they will add S. Korea to their majority trade). A much safer world because now it is in the best interest of China to keep N. Korea on the straight and narrow so as to create a stable economic scenario. It's golden.
Posted by: Orson at October 16, 2019 12:45 PM (gsqjI)
At this point, Trump has so many paths of attack with China. Hong Kong. Taiwan. Norks. Our GDP vs. theirs. He will keep playing this game of goosing the US market, while prolonging the tariffs into 2020. I can see this going on until Oct 2020. When it's clear that he's cruising to victory, he'll give China an ultimatum to make a deal before the election, or it will be much harder to make a deal afterwards.
Posted by: Darrell Harris at October 16, 2019 01:35 PM (iuFgi)
Okay, Nike, you first. No fair shutting down Chinese manufacturing, you have to kill US jobs. Oh gee, they're not production-line jobs, they're actually cubicle jobs.
Yes, we want to see corporate seppuku. Destroy your company and the people who prop you up. When Trump is reelected, don't expect us to give a shit.
Posted by: JEM at October 16, 2019 01:38 PM (8erNz)
It's unfortunate that Trump failed to interpret just how big a shitshow his opposition was prepared to present.
We'll see...I'd have argued that vote integrity was a hill to die on.
Posted by: JEM at October 16, 2019 01:42 PM (8erNz)
Posted by: Shane McGowan's Liver at October 16, 2019 02:25 PM (Ir8JT)
Posted by: The Objective Historian at October 16, 2019 09:48 PM (SPRe2)
Posted by: Criminitly at October 16, 2019 09:59 PM (HDUoF)
Economic models are based on ... wait for it... economics. :-)
Posted by: kalashnikat at October 16, 2019 10:29 PM (PXbw/)
The big win will be in the congress where I believe at least 2o seats will flip.
Posted by: I am not corey Booker at October 17, 2019 12:23 AM (Ju2mK)
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