ABC News Poll: Trump Leads Clinton Among Registered Voters, 46-42

Last month, he was down by nine in the same group.

Clinton still leads among "all adults" -- a category which includes, obviously, those not registered to vote.

It occurs to me that we might have a flip from the usual pattern of Republicans performing better with likely voters than registered voters. If the theory that Trump attracts people who don't vote much or haven't voted in years is true, he would do better with registered voters than likely voters.

Hot on the heels of that poll comes WSJ/NBC News: Hillary 46, Trump 43.

Though that seems close, AllahPundit points out a problem: Trump has never been above 44, while Hillary has been above 50% several times, and as high as 49.5% as recently as a month ago. That seems to put her potential upside at a winning level -- but Trump's upside has not yet been demonstrated to be better than simply not losing as badly as thought.

On the other hand, as Allah notes, Hillary may actually have trouble bringing all the Bernie Bros back into the Democratic fold.

Posted by: Ace at 01:51 PM

Comments

(Jump to bottom of comments)

1 He will lose in a 40 state landslide!

President Romney

Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 01:49 PM (v0YLX)

2 So we don't know what will happen.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks at May 23, 2016 01:50 PM (Nwg0u)

3 *cries*

Posted by: che che's father at May 23, 2016 01:50 PM (AqEbb)

4 He is not one of us.

Jeb Bush at the Executive Dining Room of the Club

Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 01:50 PM (v0YLX)

5 Only thing worse than a Hillary or Trump presidency would be a Hillary or Trump presidency with Mark Cuban as VP.

Posted by: Joe Hallenbeck at May 23, 2016 01:51 PM (kUpEx)

6 These polls are biased, probably.

Or something.

Posted by: joe, living dangerously at May 23, 2016 01:52 PM (KUaJL)

7 I got a tingle when Bill Weld announced for the LP vice president slot. I've always loved Bill Weld.

Then I saw him. He's a little past his sell-by date.

Posted by: Bandersnatch at May 23, 2016 01:52 PM (1xUj/)

8 Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.

Posted by: The Trumperor at May 23, 2016 01:53 PM (HtLSE)

9 So right now Hillary and Trump are swinging around the same polling point.

Hillary still has to put away Sanders, Trump is working to define Hillary. Hillary isn't very good with fluid situations whereas Trump is.

In the wings events are waiting.

Forecast: Cloudy with a 50% chance of screeching outrage by Friday, with 30% chance of a bad news dump over the holiday weekend.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - Lighter Fluid, Charcoal, and Othe Car-Be-Cue Supplies at the Outrage Outlet at May 23, 2016 01:53 PM (hLRSq)

10 Fly monkeys! FLY!!!

Posted by: Hillary! at May 23, 2016 01:53 PM (YFFpo)

11 Remember -

Al Czervik went to Buschwood CC not to join it, but to look it over before he bought it and tore it down.

Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 01:54 PM (v0YLX)

12 Here is my lay person's reading of this election. Both have high negatives, but one at least has an extremely loyal and happy following. I'll go with that person.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 01:54 PM (gmeXX)

13 Hillary still leads among diverse groups, such as felons, illegal aliens, and the dead.

Posted by: Qoheleth at May 23, 2016 01:55 PM (iIzG7)

14 We have no idea what turnout model will be appropriate for this election, the polling will suck.

Posted by: Jean at May 23, 2016 01:55 PM (Doh4+)

15 God I can't wait for everyone who said they were going to leave if Trump is elected to GTFO.

/wishful thinking

Posted by: Burn the Witch at May 23, 2016 01:55 PM (Wckf4)

16 There is a 100% chance that 50% of the people will only vote 66% of the time if they think that there is a 75% chance there guy will lose.

Posted by: Tinfoilbaby at May 23, 2016 01:56 PM (6Ll1u)

17 7 I got a tingle when Bill Weld announced for the LP vice president slot. I've always loved Bill Weld.

Then I saw him. He's a little past his sell-by date.
Posted by: Bandersnatch at May 23, 2016 01:52 PM (1xUj/)

Nothing says LIBERTARIAN like a gun grabbing liberal Republican!

Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 01:56 PM (v0YLX)

18 AllahPundit points out a problem: Trump has never been above 44
===========================

I suppose now I'll have to go read the linked post, because it looks to me like Ace's whole point is that Trump is now at 46.

Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 01:56 PM (/m8T6)

19 Right now, all conservative voices should be dedicated to convincing Bernie to run third party for the good of International Socialism and Mumblefuck.

Posted by: joncelli, Longbow Afficianado and Phalangist at May 23, 2016 01:57 PM (RD7QR)

20 The polling on this year's campaigns is so out of normal that you'd have to explain it twice to Mr. Spock.

Posted by: Qoheleth at May 23, 2016 01:57 PM (iIzG7)

21 And after push comes to riot, I'm betting most of the Bernouts go right back into the fold like the good little donks they are.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at May 23, 2016 01:57 PM (Wckf4)

22 None of this matters if he's not winning more states than Romney did. What states is he turning from 2012?

Posted by: Ted K. at May 23, 2016 01:58 PM (seSmy)

23 Just got to the blog and got caught up on posts. I can't believe the rape ad and it's not even Rapey Tuesday! I expected Trump to go there and he hasn't wasted any time. I wonder how Hitlery will respond. I wish I liked popcorn!

Posted by: L, Elle at May 23, 2016 01:58 PM (6IPEM)

24 On the other hand, as Allah notes, Hillary may actually have trouble bringing all the Bernie Bros back into the Democratic fold.

He's dreaming.

There is a 100% chance that 50% of the people will only vote 66% of the time if they think that there is a 75% chance there guy will lose.

I agree 2/3rds of 100%

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 01:58 PM (39g3+)

25 None of this matters if he's not winning more states than Romney did. What states is he turning from 2012?

----------

FL, OH, PA

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 01:59 PM (gmeXX)

26 PA.

Ahem.

National polls are meaningless!

Yes, I plan on saying that even about state by state polls because why not.

Posted by: alexthechick- Darth Sugartits at May 23, 2016 01:59 PM (mf5HN)

27 None of this matters if he's not winning more states than Romney did. What states is he turning from 2012?

Posted by: Ted K. at May 23, 2016 01:58 PM (seSmy)

We'll know in a few more months, depending on events.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - Lighter Fluid, Charcoal, and Othe Car-Be-Cue Supplies at the Outrage Outlet at May 23, 2016 01:59 PM (hLRSq)

28 I suppose now I'll have to go read the linked post, because it looks to me like Ace's whole point is that Trump is now at 46.

--

different polls

Posted by: TRUMP! at May 23, 2016 02:00 PM (oGRue)

29 None of this matters if he's not winning more states than Romney did. What states is he turning from 2012?

Perhaps a better way of looking at it is, which states may Hillary not retain from 2012?

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:00 PM (39g3+)

30 They're butthurt now, but the Bernie Bros will be back. If there's one thing that the Free Shit Army does with precision, it's showing up quadrennially to vote for free shit.

Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete at May 23, 2016 02:00 PM (A6sW3)

31 It seems the Secret Service is a little nervous these days. I feel sorry for them, honestly.

Some party balloons floated past the White House today and so they locked it down until they figured out if there was a threat (no threat).

Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:00 PM (/m8T6)

32 Considering how charismatic Hillary! is, how could you even doubt her ability to flip the Bernie Bro's?

Posted by: Chupacabra at May 23, 2016 02:01 PM (kZVsz)

33 Of course, all of this goes out the window if Lynch indicts. The later the decision, the more disruptive.

Posted by: joncelli, Longbow Afficianado and Phalangist at May 23, 2016 02:01 PM (RD7QR)

34 This election is like a political rorschach test. You see what you want to see.

2008 was also like that.

Posted by: Glorious Ungent at May 23, 2016 02:01 PM (jj9xd)

35 Of course, all of this goes out the window if Lynch indicts.

--------

You mean Obama.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:01 PM (gmeXX)

36 Can Pennsylvania NOT be a swing state this time? The Ads will have me wanting to rip out my good eye.

Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at May 23, 2016 02:02 PM (oGRue)

37 I still expect Hillary to win, mostly because if I expect the worse, its less painful when that takes place.

Either way, I'm still voting for Vermin Supreme. I live in Oregon. Even if they didn't throw my ballot in the shredder when its mailed in, my vote is eclipsed by Portland and Eugene.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:02 PM (39g3+)

38 But GOOD NEWS everyone!!!!!

Mark Cuban said he would be VP candidate for EITHER Clunton OR Trump!!!!

We're SAVED!!!!!!

Posted by: Sponge at May 23, 2016 02:02 PM (KLcQy)

39 I have a feeling Hillary might just blow up on the launch pad after a series of these throat punches. She's not used to getting roughed up like this, and may well just blurt out something catastrophic to her campaign.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 23, 2016 02:02 PM (oKE6c)

40 Knowing how poll after poll underrepresents the GOP vote by 4-6%, the actual numbers are probably more like Trump up by 50-38 .

Posted by: OregonMuse at May 23, 2016 02:03 PM (N1Wpo)

41 I saw early today that Trump is down six points in Ohio. Vice President Kasich?

Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:03 PM (/m8T6)

42 Mark Cuban said he would be VP candidate for EITHER Clunton OR Trump!!!!

-----------

You know what - why not? If not this year, then when.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:03 PM (gmeXX)

43
Pennsylvania can go eat shit. Trump doesn't need PA.

The key is Virginia.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:03 PM (/7JDl)

44 Trump has never been above 44 except for the poll in the same post that has him at 46?

Posted by: Tradd at May 23, 2016 02:03 PM (EQcBC)

45 Mark Cuban said he would be VP candidate for EITHER Clunton OR Trump!!!!

Yeah that doesn't sound desperate or anything. Pleeeeeeasse I wanna be VP, please please, I'll do it for anyone!

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (39g3+)

46 Hillary is the incumbent. If she is below 50% she is in trouble.

Posted by: huh? at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (jN+3o)

47 Hillary!'s all in against guns, gas, and coal. There's a lot of the state that isn't going to take too kindly to that. Even in the cities.

Not like she'll lose Philly or Pittsburgh, but the vast middle is all about those three issues. He doesn't need to win the cities, just not lose 90% of 'em.

Posted by: Chupacabra at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (kZVsz)

48 Pennsylvania can go eat shit. Trump doesn't need PA.

The key is Virginia.

-----------

Hasn't CAC shown that PA is much closer to flipping Red than VA?

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (gmeXX)

49 Events, my dear boy. Events.

Posted by: Harold Macmillan at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (AqEbb)

50 The big question is how will Trump poll against the Democrat nominee?

For some reason (health, emails, treason) I don't think that it will be Hillary.

Biden - Warren
Or
Bernie - Franken

This is going to be a wild Summer.

Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (v0YLX)

51 a category which includes, obviously, those not registered to vote.
?Que?

Posted by: jose at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (PLnZs)

52 "It seems the Secret Service is a little nervous these days."

Members of the Secret Service Protective Detail were given a multiple choice exam during an inservice training day:

"For each presidential candidate this year, select what your primary option is:
(A) I'd take a bullet for him/her.
(B) I'd take cover.
(C) I may shoot the bitch myself with my service weapon."

That's a poll I'd like to see the results of.

Posted by: Qoheleth at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (iIzG7)

53 So is it time to break out the "Rapey McRapeFace" buttons?

Posted by: FireNWater at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (sPRWb)

54 Throw out the models.
Trump will take 42 states.

Posted by: Diogenes at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (r65B3)

55 Can Pennsylvania NOT be a swing state this time?

--------

Pennsylvania is never a swing state. We keep convincing ourselves that it's in play, and it never happens. It's like our obsession with winning the Hispanic vote.

Posted by: Ted K. at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (seSmy)

56 42 Mark Cuban said he would be VP candidate for EITHER Clunton OR Trump!!!!

he'll campaign from his stair climber

Posted by: x at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (nFwvY)

57 If ya wanna be president, ya gotta get more votes than the other guy.

Posted by: John Madden at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (N1Wpo)

58 WOO-WOO

Posted by: Trump Train at May 23, 2016 02:05 PM (10hEu)

59 21 And after push comes to riot, I'm betting most of the Bernouts go right back into the fold like the good little donks they are.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at May 23, 2016 01:57 PM (Wckf4)

Reports on the NV convention said the Bernie Bots were referring to Hillary with "crude language referring to the female anatomy." So this is no minor policy dispute; that kind of venom is going to be hard to paper over.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 23, 2016 02:05 PM (oKE6c)

60 Sure, you believe it when Allah says it, but back when we were telling you Trump would rise and Hillary would fall, you said we were all blind cult followers, devoid of the knowledge available to New York based political writers.

Also, lately your writing has less of a British accent.

Posted by: jwest at May 23, 2016 02:05 PM (Zs4uk)

61 Knowing how poll after poll underrepresents the GOP vote by 4-6%, the actual numbers are probably more like Trump up by 50-38 .

Posted by: OregonMuse at May 23, 2016 02:03 PM (N1Wpo)

That's what we said in 2012

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at May 23, 2016 02:05 PM (QPdNE)

62 "Nothing says LIBERTARIAN like a gun grabbing liberal Republican!"

Remember when the Mittbot 3000 was describing itself as "severely conservative"?

By comparison to Bill Weld, Romney *is* severely conservative.

I tend to view this as yet another deliberately engineered stratagem to pull votes away from the main Republican ticket. Fake "libertarians" funded by the left have recently been very useful to Democrats in close races. Expect to see a lot of Weld in the swing states.

Posted by: torquewrench at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (noWW6)

63
Of course, all of this goes out the window if Lynch indicts. The later the decision, the more disruptive.
Posted by: joncelli, Longbow Afficianado and Phalangist at May 23, 2016 02:01 PM (RD7QR)
----------------------

Joe Biden -- fresh as a daisy, modest as a virgin, heroic even in the grief of a mourning father, and phony as hell.

That's going to take a rather inventive nickname. Melodrama Joe?

Posted by: iforgot at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (pC96u)

64 This election is like a political rorschach test. You see what you want to see.

-
It don't really matter to me. You believe what you want to believe but you don't have to live like a refugee.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (Nwg0u)

65 43
Pennsylvania can go eat shit. Trump doesn't need PA.

The key is Virginia.
Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:03 PM (/7JDl)

You fuckin' told us to eat shit? [Grabs package] I got yer shit right here! Wait. That came out wrong...

Posted by: Vinny the Philly Eyetalian at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (RD7QR)

66 >>>> They're butthurt now, but the Bernie Bros will be back. If there's one thing that the Free Shit Army does with precision, it's showing up quadrennially to vote for free shit.
Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete at May 23, 2016 02:00 PM
-----
As much as I'd like to believe that the Bernie Bros will sit out the election or vote for Trump, I have to agree with this comment. They won't. They will vote for Hitlery. They need to eat.

Posted by: L, Elle at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (6IPEM)

67 Mark Cuban said he would be VP candidate for EITHER Clunton OR Trump!!!!

- - - -

If so, will he bring the AT&T girl with him to DC and if he does, will he introduce her to Mr Clinton?

Posted by: Diogenes at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (r65B3)

68 VP Kasich = death knell.

It seems like these days nobody delivers their state any longer anyway, its kind of pointless to pick someone based on that.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (39g3+)

69 Joe Biden -- fresh as a daisy, modest as a virgin, heroic even in the grief of a mourning father, and phony as hell.

---------------

And - DOCTOR Jill Biden.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (gmeXX)

70
Hasn't CAC shown that PA is much closer to flipping Red than VA?

Yeah, he sure did. And Wisconsin, too.

Election day 2012, unfortunately, showed us otherwise. Also, Romney going from -17 to -6 in blue states isn't really that helpful, we learned.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (/7JDl)

71 "Throw out the models. Trump will take 42 states."

The models will be part of his entourage, and he might marry one of them.

Posted by: Qoheleth at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM (iIzG7)

72 61 Knowing how poll after poll underrepresents the GOP vote by 4-6%, the actual numbers are probably more like Trump up by 50-38 .

Posted by: OregonMuse at May 23, 2016 02:03 PM (N1Wpo)

----------

Yeah! Head on over to unskewedpolls.com for the *real* analysis.

Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete at May 23, 2016 02:07 PM (26zxJ)

73 @43 Virginia governor is Clinton bag man McAullife. VA is not going to flip this cycle.

I have been saying PA, Florida, NJ and one more state. Sub OH for NJ it's done.

Posted by: blaster at May 23, 2016 02:08 PM (349nX)

74 So we don't know what will happen.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks at May 23, 2016 01:50 PM (Nwg0u)

The Undecideds could go either way.

Posted by: George H.W. Bush at May 23, 2016 02:08 PM (8ZskC)

75 Election day 2012, unfortunately, showed us otherwise. Also, Romney going from -17 to -6 in blue states isn't really that helpful, we learned.

------------

Doesn't mean it will flip, but one may be closer to being flipped than the other.

Good thing states never ever change voting patterns.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:08 PM (gmeXX)

76 Hillary is in the fight of her life within the alleged democrat primary, where she loses at the ballot box consistently but seems to always get most of the delegates. That alone should tell you about the left.

Once Bernie has been officially put down, the dems will rally behind her because that is what partisans do in the end. I expect her numbers to improve. I will not put it past her to fare poorly in the end because she is a terrible candidate. She could lose a one person race.

Posted by: JEM1 at May 23, 2016 02:08 PM (ZoYwk)

77 Yeah! Head on over to unskewedpolls.com for the *real* analysis.
---------------------------------------------------

Not this again!

Posted by: President Mitt Romney at May 23, 2016 02:08 PM (/m8T6)

78 This election is like a political Rorschach Test. You see what you want to see.
Hey! You're the one with the collection of dirty pictures not me!

Posted by: ordinary voter at May 23, 2016 02:08 PM (PLnZs)

79 I do not get the Biden thing, not at all. The guy is a running joke. He's a freaking internet meme about someone being a window-licking moron. Nobody remembers or gives a crap about his son dying, I know that sounds cold but seriously. If it weren't for someone bringing it up on this blog daily, who would even recall it? Nobody outside hardcore political types even remember or knew that happened.

Biden is not going to ride in and save the day for anyone. Unless Hillary dies on stage, she's the nominee.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:09 PM (39g3+)

80
The only way Trump will win is if he wins the exact same states as Bush did in 2004.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:09 PM (/7JDl)

81 And - DOCTOR Jill Biden.
Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:06 PM

--------------

True story: I heard the press go on and on about DOCTOR Jill Biden for so many years that I just assumed she was a physician. Not a Cosby-degree holder from whatever the fuck mid-tier state school.

Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete at May 23, 2016 02:09 PM (A6sW3)

82
The big question is how will Trump poll against the Democrat nominee?

For some reason (health, emails, treason) I don't think that it will be Hillary.

Biden - Warren
Or
Bernie - Franken

This is going to be a wild Summer.
Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 02:04 PM (v0YLX)
-----------------------

Throw Kerry in there, too.

I give 50%+ that Hillary will not be the nominee.

Posted by: iforgot at May 23, 2016 02:09 PM (pC96u)

83 Mark Cuban said he would be VP candidate for EITHER Clunton OR Trump!!!!

NO MORE CUBANS!!!

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at May 23, 2016 02:10 PM (8ZskC)

84 "Unless Hillary dies on stage, she's the nominee."

Don't tease me.

Posted by: Qoheleth at May 23, 2016 02:10 PM (iIzG7)

85 "Bernie - Franken"

Doubt that the Democrats will ever again put forth a top ticket with two pale penis people on it.

Kerry-Edwards was the last of those for our lifetimes. Insofar as Kerry can be said to have had a penis. Edwards, well, there's proof in issue.

Posted by: torquewrench at May 23, 2016 02:10 PM (noWW6)

86 Gee, sounds like The Donald is pretty "normalized" per that poll, eh?

Posted by: DoJ at May 23, 2016 02:10 PM (NOIQH)

87 Trump throws models out right-wing blog admits!!!

Posted by: the new york times at May 23, 2016 02:10 PM (PLnZs)

88 Expect to see a lot of Weld in the swing states.

Hopefully, his handlers keep him away from the "amber colored liquids".

Posted by: tu3031 at May 23, 2016 02:10 PM (YFFpo)

89 My totally scientific poll - based on a sample size of N = 1 - came from a liberal PBS-member acquaintance who was asked by a conservative friend which he preferred, Hillary or Bernie. The liberal wouldn't answer, but instead launched a rant on Trump.

It kinda said a lot to me, viz., that he wasn't enthusiastic about either of the Dems, and in fact was a bit embarrassed by each of them.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 23, 2016 02:11 PM (oKE6c)

90 The only way Trump will win is if he wins the exact same states as Bush did in 2004.

-------

No other combination of states would work?

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:11 PM (gmeXX)

91 Gee, sounds like The Donald is pretty "normalized" per that poll, eh?

Posted by: DoJ at May 23, 2016 02:10 PM (NOIQH)

Trump came pre-defined; the problem is, so did Hillary and Trump is adding to that definition.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - Lighter Fluid, Charcoal, and Othe Car-Be-Cue Supplies at the Outrage Outlet at May 23, 2016 02:11 PM (hLRSq)

92 Nobody is going to run the two white dude ticket again in our lifetimes. Its always going to be some boutique VP or presidential candidate.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:11 PM (39g3+)

93 >>Hopefully, his handlers keep him away from the "amber colored liquids".

Heh, and driving after consuming said liquids.

Posted by: DoJ at May 23, 2016 02:11 PM (NOIQH)

94 Unless Hillary dies on stage,
_________________________

So what you're sayin is there's hope?

Posted by: IP at May 23, 2016 02:11 PM (aQQbl)

95 I have been saying PA, Florida, NJ and one more state. Sub OH for NJ it's done.
----------------------------------------------------

NJ? That's nuts. It will go Hillary by a ton. In Ohio, Trump still has a ways to go and in Florida they are tied. Pa? Who knows, but I bet a low turnout election would really help Trump there. It'll help anywhere that Hillary's strong lead with African American voters plays a big role.

Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:11 PM (/m8T6)

96 @71
Well yes, lets by all means keep those models.
Only 16 Sundays until Elbow season. Might as well has some summer fun!

Posted by: Diogenes at May 23, 2016 02:12 PM (r65B3)

97 Everybody said Trump couldn't win, then he stunned them when he did this one weird trick...

Posted by: Buttzfeed at May 23, 2016 02:12 PM (8ZskC)

98 >>The key is Virginia. Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:03 PM (/7JDl)

Virginia is a blue state. He'd be better off spending his time in a swing state he could carry.

Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 02:12 PM (Bdeb0)

99
No other combination of states would work?

Not in my opinion.
It comes down to a handful of "battleground" states. The rest of the states are givens.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:13 PM (/7JDl)

100 Expect to see a lot of Weld in the swing states.

I'd vote for Tuesday Weld.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:13 PM (39g3+)

101 True story: I heard the press go on and on about
DOCTOR Jill Biden for so many years that I just assumed she was a
physician. Not a Cosby-degree holder from whatever the fuck mid-tier
state school.

Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete at May 23, 2016 02:09 PM (A6sW3)
It's worse than that: her doctorate is in education (or is that what you meant by "Cosby degree holder?").

My golden retriever could get a Ph.D. in education.

"Sit!" "Stay!" "Down!"

"OK, here's your Ph.D."

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 23, 2016 02:13 PM (oKE6c)

102 It comes down to a handful of "battleground" states. The rest of the states are givens.
-----------

So states never flip?

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:13 PM (gmeXX)

103 >>NJ? That's nuts.

It will be interesting to see if Trump ever decides to invest in a ground game. He got through the primary without one, don't think it's going to be the same in the general.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 23, 2016 02:13 PM (/tuJf)

104
If Trump can't win VA, he can't win. There is no other state that can make up for the loss of VA.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:14 PM (/7JDl)

105
True story: I heard the press go on and on about DOCTOR Jill Biden for so many years that I just assumed she was a physician. Not a Cosby-degree holder from whatever the fuck mid-tier state school.
Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete at May 23, 2016 02:09 PM (A6sW3)
---------------------

True story: Lynne Cheney has a Ph. D. but never insisted on being called "Doctor Cheney."

>>Dr. Biden received her Ed.D. degree in "educational leadership" in 2007 from the University of Delaware. Her dissertation was titled "Student Retention at the Community College: Meeting Students' Needs."

>>Dr. Biden provides an interesting contrast with Lynne Cheney, her immediate predecessor as Second Lady. Mrs. Cheney also has a right to the title "Dr." having worked hard to earn a Ph.D. in nineteenth-century British literature from the University of Wisconsin. Mrs. Cheney's dissertation was titled "Matthew Arnold's Possible Perfection: A Study of the Kantian Strain in Arnold's Poetry." Unlike Dr. Biden, however, she has never asked to be called "Dr. Cheney," let alone corrected a soldier who called her "Mrs. Cheney."

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/06/dr-biden-she-presumes.php

Posted by: iforgot at May 23, 2016 02:14 PM (pC96u)

106 If Trump can't win VA, he can't win. There is no other state that can make up for the loss of VA.

------------

PA

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:15 PM (gmeXX)

107 Everybody said Trump couldn't win, then he stunned them when he did this one weird trick...

Pundits hate this one weird trick to win elections, click for more!

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:15 PM (39g3+)

108
So states never flip?

Not never. But most states are reliable blue or red. This election will be very close; no blowout.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:15 PM (/7JDl)

109 "It'll help anywhere that Hillary's strong lead with African American voters plays a big role."

I haven't seen detailed internals, but get the sense that Hillary is pulling like a locomotive with older black women, the most reliable part of the AfAm voting bloc.

But, for example, with young black men? The least reliable part of that bloc? Can't see them turning out for her with the focus and intensity which they brought to showing up and voting for Obama.

Posted by: torquewrench at May 23, 2016 02:15 PM (noWW6)

110 The only way Pennsylvania becomes a swing state is if Iran nukes Philadelphia.

Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 02:15 PM (v0YLX)

111 ***"Election day 2012, unfortunately, showed us otherwise. Also, Romney going from -17 to -6 in blue states isn't really that helpful, we learned."***

Considering Rombley had shit for a GOTV and Ad campaign, and Trump's is...worse than Rombley's as of right now...things aren't looking too good for Trumpster.

Then again, who knows wtf is going to happen?

Posted by: Burn the Witch at May 23, 2016 02:15 PM (Wckf4)

112 My only fear is that Hillary will suddenly become likeable, smart, and honest.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks at May 23, 2016 02:16 PM (Nwg0u)

113 The three remaining major candidates are an unconvicted traitor managing a money-laundering operation, an unrepentant socialist, and a crony capitalist with a lot of money, a reality show, and a honey badger on his head.

Applying normal election-year models and logic to this campaign is an exercise in futility. You'd do just as well throwing twenty-sided dice for each candidate to see who makes a saving throw against lampposts.

Posted by: Qoheleth at May 23, 2016 02:16 PM (iIzG7)

114 Le Sigh... To repeat this morning's polling post... Allah is reading the results wrong...

Good Morning Horde!

For Trump fans, there is excellent polling news out there today!

Look at that, a couple good polls for Trump, and a few polls dropping out of the RCP average, and just like that Trump is now in the lead by 0.2%!

(*wink* Can we call polls in May valid NOW?)

A couple things happened all at once. First of all RCP dropped a bunch of polls out of the average, the old CNN and TIPP polls went away, which dropped that crazy "Clinton +13" poll out. They even dropped last week's Gravis poll out. In their place they brought in CBS (Clinton+6), NBC (Clinton +3), and ABC (Trump +2).

Again, the important numbers in all of these polls are the Trump support lines, which continue to show gradual improvement. He has now garnered 45-46% support in 3 different polls in the last week (Gravis, Fox, and ABC), showing that he really has improved his base of support into a very manageable 45%. Historically, this is where a candidate needs to be in order to have a chance of winning in November.

Meanwhile, expect panic in the Clinton camp. We will see if they can figure out the Trump puzzle, because no one else has to date. Her support has continued to degrade from the upper 40s in to the lower 40s. This is not a good trajectory for her. Expect to hear a LOT of screaming about Bernie not getting out of the race.

Pop some popcorn, this will be fun to watch.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at May 23, 2016 02:17 PM (+VY5i)

115 Maybe Hillary shouldn't be fitted for Her crown just yet...

Posted by: donna at May 23, 2016 02:17 PM (O2RFr)

116 >> I heard the press go on and on about DOCTOR Jill Biden for so many years that I just assumed she was a
physician.

Ugh, that is the worst! I have relatives who are medical doctors, and they don't throw around the "Dr." title outside of work because: humility.
But apparently Jill needs her lame education credentials reinforced in all settings.

Posted by: Lizzy at May 23, 2016 02:17 PM (NOIQH)

117 If Trump can't win VA, he can't win. There is no other state that can make up for the loss of VA. Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:14 PM (/7JDl)

You're probably right, which is why I'm pretty sure this thing is over already, sorry to say.

Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 02:17 PM (Bdeb0)

118
The last time a Republican won PA was in 1988.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:17 PM (/7JDl)

119 My golden retriever could get a Ph.D. in education.
--------------------------------------------------

She doesn't have a PhD. She has a "Doctor of Education" degree, which is equivalent to a Masters in school management in effort. In fact, I thought some moron said (the last time we talked about this fako-degree) most schools don't call it a "Doctor of Education" degree any more..

Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:17 PM (/m8T6)

120 111 ***"Election day 2012, unfortunately, showed us otherwise. Also, Romney going from -17 to -6 in blue states isn't really that helpful, we learned."***

Considering Rombley had shit for a GOTV and Ad campaign, and Trump's is...worse than Rombley's as of right now...things aren't looking too good for Trumpster.

Then again, who knows wtf is going to happen?
Posted by: Burn the Witch at May 23, 2016 02:15 PM (Wckf4)

Republicans keep winging it and get stunned when people with better planning have better results. Karl Rove is an asshole but at least he respected planning for turnout.

Posted by: joncelli, Longbow Afficianado and Phalangist at May 23, 2016 02:18 PM (RD7QR)

121 My only fear is that Hillary will suddenly become likeable, smart, and honest.

So... no fears at all, then, really.

Because if she became honest, she'd walk right up to the FBI and surrender.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:18 PM (39g3+)

122 I just can't see a true blue Sanders supporter going to Clinton. They are really pissed and feel that their Commie Savior has been mistreated. He wants to debate her in California and of course she won't as she has the nomination locked up. This won't help her get any of his supporters.

Posted by: Cheri at May 23, 2016 02:18 PM (oiNtH)

123 @67 I'm going to go way out on a limb here, and note that Lily looks a mite hippy in her latest ad. Those khakis aren't doing her any favors.

Posted by: Pep at May 23, 2016 02:18 PM (ufZzp)

124 And until someone gets a hold of the handful of metro areas in swing states where the election hinges on fraud, this is all academic.

The fraud doesn't have to be massive to swing a nat'l election, just targeted.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at May 23, 2016 02:18 PM (Wckf4)

125 "In Ohio, Trump still has a ways to go"

If he picks the mailman's son, I'll still vote Republican. Then I'll go out of the polling place and pour gasoline over my head and pull out the ol' Zippo.

Posted by: torquewrench at May 23, 2016 02:18 PM (noWW6)

126
I do not get the Biden thing, not at all. The guy is a running joke. He's a freaking internet meme about someone being a window-licking moron. Nobody remembers or gives a crap about his son dying, I know that sounds cold but seriously. If it weren't for someone bringing it up on this blog daily, who would even recall it? Nobody outside hardcore political types even remember or knew that happened.

Biden is not going to ride in and save the day for anyone. Unless Hillary dies on stage, she's the nominee.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:09 PM (39g3+)
---------------------

Lurk around a bit. You're in an echo chamber here. And there are signs that Biden is waiting in the wings.

Posted by: iforgot at May 23, 2016 02:19 PM (pC96u)

127 Since Trump can't win in Virginia, I'm hoping he can pull other Obama states that are a little more purple now, like maybe Wisconsin, Michigan (though that idiot governor probably has sunk that ship) or maybe Iowa.

Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:19 PM (/m8T6)

128 Funny, 3 polls showing at least 45%. And 45>44.

And all of them much greater than the 40% he has been stuck at for a month.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at May 23, 2016 02:19 PM (+VY5i)

129 Trump gets a bump!

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at May 23, 2016 02:19 PM (so+oy)

130 The last place left to move the goalposts has disappeared. This is a competitive race.

The one argument left is: "He'll be worse than Hillary!"

Place yer bets.

Posted by: Meremortal. Something, something. at May 23, 2016 02:19 PM (3myMJ)

131 Then again, who knows wtf is going to happen?

Posted by: Burn the Witch at May 23, 2016 02:15 PM (Wckf4)

I do know that the Punditburo and the Corps of Campaign Consultants are never going to be the same. Many reputations have taken a slashing, many Career Limiting Incidents have occurred, many words can never be recalled.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - Lighter Fluid, Charcoal, and Othe Car-Be-Cue Supplies at the Outrage Outlet at May 23, 2016 02:19 PM (hLRSq)

132 Trump could make a good play for NJ. The only other Republican who could is Christie and he endorsed Trump.

Romney was close in NJ.

Posted by: blaster at May 23, 2016 02:19 PM (349nX)

133 If you broke your arm, who would you go to? Dr. Jill or Dr. Pepper?

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks at May 23, 2016 02:20 PM (Nwg0u)

134 there are signs that Biden is waiting in the wings.

He just got lost looking for the paste supplies to eat. Seriously. Nobody except people on this blog are even considering the possibility of Biden taking over for Hillary. Its ridiculous.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:20 PM (39g3+)

135 123 @67 I'm going to go way out on a limb here, and note that Lily looks a mite hippy in her latest ad. Those khakis aren't doing her any favors.
Posted by: Pep at May 23, 2016 02:18 PM (ufZzp)

60 seconds of vigorous exercise will slim down those hips.

Posted by: joncelli, Longbow Afficianado and Phalangist at May 23, 2016 02:20 PM (RD7QR)

136 My only fear is that Hillary will suddenly become likeable, smart, and honest.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks at May 23, 2016 02:16 PM (Nwg0u)

If that occurs take an aspirin, call 911, and tell them you think you just had a stroke.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - Lighter Fluid, Charcoal, and Othe Car-Be-Cue Supplies at the Outrage Outlet at May 23, 2016 02:20 PM (hLRSq)

137
NH, CO, FL, OH, MO, NM, VA

I think that's all the battleground states. Trump needs them all except either of the smaller ones (NH or NM or CO).

I think.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:21 PM (/7JDl)

138 It will be interesting to see if Trump ever decides to invest in a ground game. He got through the primary without one, don't think it's going to be the same in the general.

The GOP has a great GOTV machine. Remember ORCA?

That is one reason I want Cruz as VP. The man has a ground game in every state. And it fucking WORKS!!!

Look at what he did putting his people in as delegates.

If Trump can use it, it is worth a few percent in most states.

Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 02:21 PM (v0YLX)

139 >>Lurk around a bit. You're in an echo chamber here. And there are signs that Biden is waiting in the wings.

I've been getting that feeling, too.

The MSM looooove them some Joey Biden, and he would make it so easy on them not having to defend Hillary any more.

Posted by: Lizzy at May 23, 2016 02:21 PM (NOIQH)

140 I heard an interview on the radio with John Mc Caffee running for President as a Libertarian. He is pretty bat shit crazy and blames America for all of the world's woes.

Posted by: Cheri at May 23, 2016 02:22 PM (oiNtH)

141
The one argument left is: "He'll be worse than Hillary!"

That will pull in the Bernie Sanders voters, most of them. But its not gonna drive turnout.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:22 PM (39g3+)

142 122 I just can't see a true blue Sanders supporter going to Clinton. They are really pissed and feel that their Commie Savior has been mistreated. He wants to debate her in California and of course she won't as she has the nomination locked up. This won't help her get any of his supporters.
Posted by: Cheri at May 23, 2016 02:18 PM (oiNtH)

I have no data, just an impression, that Bernie will clobber Hillary in CA. I haven't seen a single Hillary sign or bumper sticker yet, but lots of Bernie ones. /sobs for my beloved CA

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 23, 2016 02:22 PM (oKE6c)

143 Just saw a story where they say the Dems are gonna take back the State legislatures...

Posted by: donna at May 23, 2016 02:22 PM (O2RFr)

144
there are signs that Biden is waiting in the wings.

He just got lost looking for the paste supplies to eat. Seriously. Nobody except people on this blog are even considering the possibility of Biden taking over for Hillary. Its ridiculous.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:20 PM (39g3+)
----------------------

So you seriously think the FBI investigation will have not prevent her from becoming the nominee?

Posted by: iforgot at May 23, 2016 02:22 PM (pC96u)

145 I heard an interview on the radio with John Mc Caffee running for President as a Libertarian. He is pretty bat shit crazy and blames America for all of the world's woes.

----------

So no difference from the current president.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:22 PM (gmeXX)

146 Trump is rising in the polls right now because he's pretty much out of the news, and Hillary is in the news. They're both detestable. The ideal general election campaign for both of them is to hide.

Posted by: Ted K. at May 23, 2016 02:22 PM (seSmy)

147 They are really pissed and feel that their Commie Savior has been mistreated.

That's because he *has* been mistreated.

What are the odds that the Republican leadership will look at how the Democrats ushered Clinton in, and institute a similar system of massive super-delegates.

Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at May 23, 2016 02:22 PM (2lndx)

148 My only fear is that Hillary will suddenly become likeable, smart, and honest.

Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks at May 23, 2016 02:16 PM (Nwg0u)

If that occurs take an aspirin, call 911, and tell them you think you just had a stroke.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - Lighter Fluid, Charcoal, and Othe Car-Be-Cue Supplies at the Outrage Outlet at May 23, 2016 02:20 PM (hLRSq)

Or Hillary! had a stroke.

Either way, under that scenario,

someone had a stroke.

Posted by: naturalfake at May 23, 2016 02:23 PM (oU3Bb)

149
Picking Kasich might help Trump in OH but it will probably hurt him elsewhere. Kasich would be a bad pick.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:23 PM (/7JDl)

150 ***"I do know that the Punditburo and the Corps of Campaign Consultants are never going to be the same. Many reputations have taken a slashing, many Career Limiting Incidents have occurred, many words can never be recalled."***

This is second only to Jeb Bush's shellacking.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at May 23, 2016 02:23 PM (Wckf4)

151 It may be time for another Chipotle run, my pretties.

Posted by: Hillary! 2016 Barking For Us at May 23, 2016 02:23 PM (8ZskC)

152 Romney was close in NJ.

Posted by: blaster at May 23, 2016 02:19 PM (349nX)
---------------------------------------------------

Wikipedia says it was 58-40, Obama for the win. That isn't close, if those are the numbers, and Christie is lots less popular today than in 2012 (so fewer GOP voters probably).

Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:23 PM (/m8T6)

153 Tell me again how Trump will lose in a landslide nevertrumpers?

Posted by: Monsieur Moo Moo at May 23, 2016 02:23 PM (cVvbj)

154 The MSM looooove them some Joey Biden

No they don't. They think he's a retard, too. He's just less viciously flawed than Hillary. I live in Oregon, I'm surrounded by leftist cranks. They all think Biden is an embarrassing joke they all wish would go away. The left mocks him along with us.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:23 PM (39g3+)

155 >>The GOP has a great GOTV machine. Remember ORCA?

No, that was Romney's turnout machine which obviously didn't. Trump has invested 0 dollars in a turnout organization so far.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 23, 2016 02:23 PM (/tuJf)

156 No they don't. They think he's a retard, too. He's just less viciously flawed than Hillary. I live in Oregon, I'm surrounded by leftist cranks. They all think Biden is an embarrassing joke they all wish would go away. The left mocks him along with us.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:23 PM (39g3+)

He's perfect - he's a uniter!

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 23, 2016 02:25 PM (oKE6c)

157 But apparently Jill needs her lame education credentials reinforced in all settings.
Posted by: Lizzy

I hate that. I work with people that brag about their military service and it is actually the special operators and pilots, etc. that never brag about it. Then we have the people that sign off on the emails the entire alphabet.....BSN, MSN, PHd, etc.

Posted by: Cheri at May 23, 2016 02:25 PM (oiNtH)

158 ***"Just saw a story where they say the Dems are gonna take back the State legislatures..."***

Because the Donks ALWAYS play offense.

There's a lesson to be learned there.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at May 23, 2016 02:25 PM (Wckf4)

159 I took a late lunch today to throw some ribs o the grill for dinner.

Two experimental ribs sets:

1} Jerk style with banana bbq sauce

2) Tandoori style with...uh....tandoori stuff

Also, a rack of the usual.

Should be beerilicious in roughly 3-3.35 hours.

Posted by: naturalfake at May 23, 2016 02:25 PM (oU3Bb)

160 Picking Kasich might help Trump in OH but it will probably hurt him elsewhere. Kasich would be a bad pick.

-------------

I'm not sure that is true and here is why. Kasich seems to be liked by many Dems (for obvious reasons). The conservatives who are not voting from Trump, aren't going to change their minds based on VP pick so you didn't miss out on picking them up. I find it hard to believe that the Trump fans will find this to be the one thing that causes them to drop support. So in the end, I think Kasich could actually give some Dems a reason to support him.

And he does seem to be popular in OH - maybe he does deliver it.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:25 PM (gmeXX)

161 "That seems to put her potential upside at a winning level -- but Trump's
upside has not yet been demonstrated to be better than simply not
losing as badly as thought."

Wasn't that trotted out by Lyin' Ted?

Posted by: One-Eyed Cat Peeping in the Seafood Store at May 23, 2016 02:26 PM (aeVIR)

162
"Trump has never been above 44"

Ah, the unbreakable Trump ceiling. As adamantine as the very celestial crystal spheres themselves...

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at May 23, 2016 02:26 PM (kdS6q)

163
So you seriously think the FBI investigation will have not prevent her from becoming the nominee?

Won't make any difference at all. Not even slightly. The only way it matters is if the Obama Justice Department indicts and they won't.

Because no matter what war we wish there was between the Clinton and Obama faction, they think the GOP is worse by far. Remember Russia and Germany inexplicably allying against the USA and England? The only way we managed to peel them apart is to convince Germany that Russia was planning to attack them before they attacked Russia.

They're on a roll now. They won't hurt the party by arresting their front running presumptive nominee.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:26 PM (39g3+)

164 Kasich seems to be liked by many Dems

Only because they don't know much about him beyond some very positive and supportive news stories trying to stop Cruz and Trump. And besides: two white dudes. Not gonna happen.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:27 PM (39g3+)

165 143 Just saw a story where they say the Dems are gonna take back the State legislatures...
Posted by: donna at May 23, 2016 02:22 PM (O2RFr)

_____

All 57 of them?

Posted by: Monsieur Moo Moo at May 23, 2016 02:27 PM (cVvbj)

166
So-called Turnout Machines are overrated.

You know who Turnout Machines help? The lousy candidate who can't motivate people to vote for him.

Turnout Organizations are the people who literally drag people out of their homes to vote or pester the shit out of people to vote.

If Romney didn't suck so bad and actually gave people a reason to vote for him, he wouldn't have needed a great turnout machine. There was no urgency in 2012 to remove obama. That was Romney's fault.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:27 PM (/7JDl)

167 Few Sanders people will vote for Trump.

They will just stay home and sniff glue.

Posted by: Meremortal. Something. Something. at May 23, 2016 02:28 PM (3myMJ)

168 Trump's running mate has to be a minority and/or woman.

Posted by: Monsieur Moo Moo at May 23, 2016 02:28 PM (cVvbj)

169 They will just stay home and sniff glue.

--------

That is somewhat of an appealing option this election day.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:28 PM (gmeXX)

170 Trump's shown himself to be pretty adept so far at using social media generally. To what extent can that ability be parlayed into a GOTV campaign?

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (oKE6c)

171
I think Kasich, outside of Ohio, is despised by just about everyone.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (/7JDl)

172 Trump's running mate has to be a minority and/or woman.

------------

I thought he was the anti-PC candidate.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (gmeXX)

173 You know who Turnout Machines help? The lousy candidate who can't motivate people to vote for him.

Yeah. Obama didn't work at turnout, he worked at making people want to vote for him. They weren't out there begging people to please show up and vote, they were out there telling everyone how evil the GOP candidate was and how great Obama was. Get Out The Vote is what you have to do when your guy sucks.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (39g3+)

174 "Hillary still leads among diverse groups, such as felons, illegal aliens, and the dead."

And ugly women. America has lots of them!

Posted by: Ed Rendell at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (1BQGO)

175 >>So-called Turnout Machines are overrated.

>>You know who Turnout Machines help? The lousy candidate who can't motivate people to vote for him.

Tell it to Obama. Carried his skinny ass to 2 wins. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find any successful modern candidate who hasn't had a successful turnout organization.

Rove was fanatical about it and it was largely the reason Bush won two very close elections.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (/tuJf)

176 They will just stay home and sniff more glue.

Posted by: Meremortal. Something. Something. at May 23, 2016 02:28 PM (3myMJ)

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (oKE6c)

177 Obligatory Biden washing the Trans Am link:

http://www.theonion.com/article/shirtless-biden-washes-trans-am-in-white-house-dri-2718

Posted by: alexthechick- Darth Sugartits at May 23, 2016 02:30 PM (mf5HN)

178 172 Trump's running mate has to be a minority and/or woman.

------------

I thought he was the anti-PC candidate.
Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (gmeXX)

_______

So you can't be anti-PC and have a non-white guy as your VP?

Posted by: Monsieur Moo Moo at May 23, 2016 02:30 PM (cVvbj)

179 Hey Horde, back from buying some overpriced produce from the local vegetable stand... love their marketing... " half the Listeria of the big chains"... diarrhea reduced strawberries....Yum!

Posted by: kraken at May 23, 2016 02:30 PM (sdxPm)

180 Trump's running mate has to be a minority and/or woman.

Posted by: Monsieur Moo Moo at May 23, 2016 02:28 PM (cVvbj)

That's probably correct.

If Haley hadn't kicked herself in the vag, she'd be the natural choice.

However....

Posted by: naturalfake at May 23, 2016 02:30 PM (oU3Bb)

181 Yeah. Obama didn't work at turnout, he worked at making people want to vote for him. They weren't out there begging people to please show up and vote, they were out there telling everyone how evil the GOP candidate was and how great Obama was. Get Out The Vote is what you have to do when your guy sucks.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (39g3+)

___

It's not an either or. To win you have to

a) have a good message
b) demonize your opponent
c) get your people to actually vote

Saying a or b or c isn't needed if you have the other two is silly. You need all 3.

Posted by: Monsieur Moo Moo at May 23, 2016 02:31 PM (cVvbj)

182 172 Trump's running mate has to be a minority and/or woman.

------------

I thought he was the anti-PC candidate.
Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (gmeXX)

_______

So you can't be anti-PC and have a non-white guy as your VP?

----------

Sure you can, but I have been told how anti-PC Trump was, but on this he has to pick a minority candidate.

I'd just assume he pick the candidate he thinks is best.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:31 PM (gmeXX)

183 I prefer to be called "Doctor." Mind you, I'm not a doctor, I just prefer to be called "doctor."

Posted by: josephistan at May 23, 2016 02:31 PM (7HtZB)

184 If Obama's voter turnout program is so good, why did the Dems lose so badly in 2010 and 2014? Obama's great "voter turnout" plan was to remind blacks that he was a black guy. That's not particularly effective when he isn't on the ballot, like he won't be in 2016.

All that said, I still don't see Trump doing any better than Romney did. I just think we've way overrated all the great Obama strategery.

Posted by: Ted K. at May 23, 2016 02:32 PM (seSmy)

185 >>You know who Turnout Machines help? The lousy candidate who can't motivate people to vote for him.
Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:27 PM (/7JDl)

Probably something to this, on the lines of the "if you can afford to advertise, you don't need to" line of thinking.

Trump should just offer Sanders the VP slot, commit to a one-term presidency, and start building the yooge wall.

Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 02:32 PM (Bdeb0)

186 As much as I'd like to believe that the Bernie Bros will sit out the election or vote for Trump, I have to agree with this comment. They won't. They will vote for Hitlery. They need to eat.

---

Wait till i make a yuuge deal and get Bernies endorsement!

Posted by: TRUMP! at May 23, 2016 02:32 PM (oGRue)

187
Jackstraw, you forget the long lines in FL for early voting? People were in line for hours and days for obama.

Yes, obama had an organization to bus those people to the polling places, but he didn't have to beg and plead for them to go...in droves.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:32 PM (/7JDl)

188 We'll probably end up with a Clinton/Sanders ticket.

It's the only way Hillary will be able to keep Bernie's horde from splitting off.

Posted by: TrivialPursuer at May 23, 2016 02:33 PM (BNs9e)

189 How about Bobby Jindal as running mate? But it seems like there was something wrong with him, so.... Chris Tucker?

Posted by: kraken at May 23, 2016 02:33 PM (sdxPm)

190 Trump needs to find a popular centrist-ish woman from swing state (preferably Ohio) who is popular. Not sure who that is, but there has to be someone out there who fits the bill.

Posted by: Monsieur Moo Moo at May 23, 2016 02:33 PM (cVvbj)

191 They will vote for Hitlery. They need to eat.

--------------

Bernie strikes me as being big among the Trust fund crowd. I think they will eat just fine.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:33 PM (gmeXX)

192 "one at least has an extremely loyal and happy following."

Hillary is very popular with blacks.

Posted by: Harun at May 23, 2016 02:34 PM (UBBWX)

193 Trump's shown himself to be pretty adept so far at using social media generally. To what extent can that ability be parlayed into a GOTV campaign?

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 23, 2016 02:29 PM (oKE6c)

To the extent that he beat out the guy in the primaries who had the perfect ground game put together, Ted Cruz. This is a very odd cycle and the normal rule book does not apply the way it used to.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - Lighter Fluid, Charcoal, and Othe Car-Be-Cue Supplies at the Outrage Outlet at May 23, 2016 02:34 PM (hLRSq)

194 Minority or female Republicans don't count, so Trump can't have either of those as a running mate.

This is science.

Posted by: Chupacabra at May 23, 2016 02:34 PM (kZVsz)

195 188 We'll probably end up with a Clinton/Sanders ticket.

It's the only way Hillary will be able to keep Bernie's horde from splitting off.
Posted by: TrivialPursuer at May 23, 2016 02:33 PM (BNs9e)

____

Yeah that's my fear. A Clinton/Sanders ticket will be unbeatable.

Posted by: Monsieur Moo Moo at May 23, 2016 02:34 PM (cVvbj)

196 Saying a or b or c isn't needed if you have the other two is silly. You need all 3.

I'm saying if you have both A and B, then you get C. People who are excited to vote for you and against the other guy don't need prompting to vote. They do it themselves.

Sure you can, but I have been told how anti-PC Trump was, but on this he has to pick a minority candidate.

Do I really have to say it again? The candidate gets his VP selected for him. McCain wanted Joe Lieberman, for crying out loud, and hated Sarah Palin. Ronald Reagan did not prefer George "Voodoo Economics" Bush as his running mate. Trump won't choose, no matter what his inclinations are.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:34 PM (39g3+)

197 Trump's VP pick is important. I can't predict what he'll do, but he knows it's key so I expect plenty of strategy will go into the pick.

Posted by: Meremortal. Something's burning... at May 23, 2016 02:35 PM (3myMJ)

198
Turnout apparatus is important for all campaigns because people are lazy and stupid. But when your campaign fails or wins on the efficacy of your turnout org instead of the efficacy of the candidate, that's a recipe for failure.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:35 PM (/7JDl)

199 Trump is smart...I think. He's going to pick a VP that shores up one of his weak demographics. He know's he's got to get the indy's.

Posted by: WisRich at May 23, 2016 02:35 PM (hdpay)

200 I think Kasich, outside of Ohio, is despised by just about everyone.
=====

I thought Kasich had good numbers in the Northeast -- especially after Rubio dropped out. He is offensive to most here, but for retail politicians he seems to do well. As far as I am concerned, he is Katshit and would not make the Trump Dump go down more easily, but I think he was polling pretty well and acceptable to the GOPe (Boehner especially).

Posted by: mustbequantum at May 23, 2016 02:35 PM (MIKMs)

201 Yeah. Obama didn't work at turnout, he worked at making people want to vote for him.

---

i'm confused, you used Obama and work in the same sentence

Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at May 23, 2016 02:35 PM (oGRue)

202 I think Jindal would be a great choice: he's intellectual, policy-focused, wonkish, and dedicated to ideas. He is well spoken if not particularly charismatic, and brings a lot to the table that Trump does not. Nobody is going to call Jindal inauthentically Indian, either.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 02:36 PM (39g3+)

203 Sure you can, but I have been told how anti-PC Trump was, but on this he has to pick a minority candidate.

I'd just assume he pick the candidate he thinks is best.
Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:31 PM (gmeXX)

_____

He may be anti-PC but he's not an imbecile. He understands that a woman/minority will increase his chances of winning.

Posted by: Monsieur Moo Moo at May 23, 2016 02:36 PM (cVvbj)

204 McCain wanted Joe Lieberman, for crying out loud, and hated Sarah Palin.

----------

Has anyone else ever heard this before?

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:36 PM (gmeXX)

205 Isn't a speculum also a turnout apparatus?

Posted by: andycanuck at May 23, 2016 02:36 PM (PLnZs)

206
So you seriously think the FBI investigation will have not prevent her from becoming the nominee?

Won't make any difference at all. Not even slightly. The only way it matters is if the Obama Justice Department indicts and they won't.
----------------------

Very well, we shall see. I'd be just as happy to see her defeated in an election -- rejected by masses of voters for a guy with an orange bouffant.

Posted by: iforgot at May 23, 2016 02:36 PM (pC96u)

207 The Dems might well go pro-Palestine in their platform this year, so that might well help Trump in Florida (where he already runs even, according to todays state polling). It will also help a bit in Ohio, because suburban Cleveland has a big, politically active and influential Jewish population. If Trump can promise Kasich a big job (even if it can't be Veep) that might help too, since Kasich has good numbers in Ohio.

Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:36 PM (/m8T6)

208 VP Alan West?

Black, Military, Florida, Conservative

Or has he been Palinized?

Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 02:37 PM (v0YLX)

209 He know's he's got to get the indy's.
Posted by: WisRich at May 23, 2016 02:35 PM (hdpay)

Actually, scratch that. He could pull an Obama 2012 move: Screw the Indy's and focus on motivating and turning out the Base.

Posted by: WisRich at May 23, 2016 02:37 PM (hdpay)

210
If you want to say Bush's gotv saved his ass in 2004, I'd agree.

It was just enough to push him over the edge in many key states.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:37 PM (/7JDl)

211 >>Nobody is going to call Jindal inauthentically Indian, either.

If Clinton picked Warren (I know, I know), Trump picking Jindal would be comedy gold.

Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 02:38 PM (Bdeb0)

212 Trump is smart...I think. He's going to pick a VP that shores up one of his weak demographics. He know's he's got to get the indy's.

---

he does not poll well with illegal immigrants

Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at May 23, 2016 02:38 PM (oGRue)

213 There is an old saying when it comes to the GOP and Democrat candidates coming out of the primaries.

"The GOP voters will start to fall into line and support the nominee, but the Dem voters will have to fall in love with the Dem nominee". The meaning is that the Dems always have a tougher time coming together after a raucous nomination, while the GOP grudgingly comes together.

Also with regards to Virginia. McAuliffe is underwater here, he won't be a big help for her. Plus, while Hillary might get the black vote 95-5 like Obama did in 08 and 12 in Virginia, she will not get the sheer number of black voters to come out like Obama did. That is the variable that keeps getting missed in polling statewide. In 2014, the polls kept assuming that the black vote would come out like it did in 2012, and it didn't. As a result, if the GOP had spent about $1.5M in Virginia, Mark Warner would be retired from the Senate, and Ed Gillespie would be our Senator.

Posted by: Ashley Judd's Puffy Scamper, aka MrCaniac at May 23, 2016 02:38 PM (1JnAL)

214 >>Jackstraw, you forget the long lines in FL for early voting? People were in line for hours and days for obama.

>>Yes, obama had an organization to bus those people to the polling places, but he didn't have to beg and plead for them to go...in droves.

Who do you think was organizing the buses and organizing the people? Team Obama. That's what turnout organizations do. They most certainly were beg, cajole, bribe and do the nasty stuff that every successful pol does to get elected. Obama's lightworker shit was overrated. All Ed Rendell about the "walking around money" that gets spread around Philly every election including for Obama.

I'll bet you a nickel that in a very short amount of time we will be reading lots of articles about Trump building a turnout organization just as he belatedly did in the primary when he started losing to Cruz's superior organization.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 23, 2016 02:38 PM (/tuJf)

215 I dunno, there seems to be a lot of genuine Hillary Hate on the Socialist Left. I'm wondering if these people aren't wanting to go full-tilt Bolshie, and Hillary would be more of a drag to that plan.
Trump would be the Devvvilll for them, and they could keep burning down their neighborhoods with him in office, and feel virtuous.

Besides, everyone knows they're just waiting for the Mooch..

Posted by: kraken at May 23, 2016 02:38 PM (sdxPm)

216 VP pick: Susana Martinez would probably make the most sense from a standard electoral point of view.

I am thinking he would go with Kelly Ayotte, instead. But apparently she is a shoe in to win her seat in NH, and if she dropped out to run for VP then the governor might appoint her replacement. The same governor who is her Democrat opponent for the seat.

Maybe Martha McSally then? Not a national name but super impressive resume.

Notice a theme here? Yes, I believe he will choose a woman as Veep not for the v card on the ticket, but because he is the alpha dog and he won't have another alpha male on his ticket.

Posted by: blaster at May 23, 2016 02:39 PM (tewYv)

217 167 Few Sanders people will vote for Trump.

They will just stay home and sniff glue.

Posted by: Meremortal. Something. Something. at May 23, 2016 02:28 PM (3myMJ)

I don't believe this. Judging from people I know who are committed Bernie Boosters, they would rather teach the democrat party a lesson by voting Trump, knowing deep down that in 4 years, the country will be so ready for a 80 year old socialist.

Posted by: jwest at May 23, 2016 02:39 PM (Zs4uk)

218 Hill, Bill and Bern in the White House?

Talk about an Old Folks Home. How dreary.

Posted by: Meremortal, Something's stinking... at May 23, 2016 02:39 PM (3myMJ)

219 >>>>>Though that seems close, AllahPundit points out a problem: Trump has
never been above 44, while Hillary has been above 50% several times, and
as high as 49.5% as recently as a month ago. That seems to put her
potential upside at a winning level -- but Trump's upside has not yet
been demonstrated to be better than simply not losing as badly as
thought.
.
.
.
.Also that poll has a D+8 which hasn't happened since 2008 when obama was first on the ballot. Hillary is not going to generate that kind of enthusiasm no matter what people are saying.

Posted by: The Great White Scotsman at May 23, 2016 02:40 PM (iONHu)

220 Yes, I believe he will choose a woman as Veep not for the v card on the ticket, but because he is the alpha dog and he won't have another alpha male on his ticket.

-------------

A good theory.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:40 PM (gmeXX)

221 Hey! She wants to be called DOCTOR, all right?! So call her DOCTOR!
How hard is that for you stupid fucking peasants to figure out!

Posted by: SENATOR Babara Boxer at May 23, 2016 02:40 PM (YFFpo)

222 189 How about Bobby Jindal as running mate? But it seems like there was something wrong with him, so.... Chris Tucker?
Posted by: kraken at May 23, 2016 02:33 PM (sdxPm)

Terry Crews. The Camacho Presidency has to start somewhere.

Posted by: josephistan at May 23, 2016 02:40 PM (7HtZB)

223 "...they would rather teach the democrat party a lesson by voting Trump"

Exactly the kind of crap people who are staying home say.

Posted by: Meremortal, Something's stinking... at May 23, 2016 02:41 PM (3myMJ)

224 Nood; white privilege at HuffPoo.

Posted by: andycanuck at May 23, 2016 02:41 PM (PLnZs)

225
Yes, Trump should pick someone from New Mexico (Martinez), or from Colorado, or from Missouri.

Posted by: Mister Magoo at May 23, 2016 02:41 PM (/7JDl)

226 213 Posted by: Ashley Judd's Puffy Scamper, aka MrCaniac at May 23, 2016 02:38 PM (1JnAL)
----------------------------------------------------------

Any chance Doug Wilder might endorse Trump? That would be awesome, just to watch the WaPo heads explode.

Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:42 PM (/m8T6)

227 "I'll bet you a nickel that in a very short amount of time we will be reading lots of articles about Trump building a turnout organization just as he belatedly did in the primary when he started losing to Cruz's superior organization."

Trump thinks those are overrated.

He prefer the rally model.

Rallies were he gets cheered by his fans.

(though maybe he's right - they also get him on TeeVee.)

Posted by: Harun at May 23, 2016 02:42 PM (UBBWX)

228 204 McCain wanted Joe Lieberman, for crying out loud, and hated Sarah Palin.

----------

Has anyone else ever heard this before?
Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 02:36 PM (gmeXX)

I remember rumors that Jumpin Jim Jeffords beat him to the turncoat republican seat by about 24 hours. Juan wanted to become a Democrat partly for the power, but mostly to SCREW GEORGE BUSH, being the bitter vindictive RINO Asshole he is.

Posted by: rd at May 23, 2016 02:44 PM (v0YLX)

229 >>Also with regards to Virginia....if the GOP had spent about $1.5M. Posted by: Ashley Judd's Puffy Scamper, aka MrCaniac at May 23, 2016 02:38 PM (1JnAL)

Candy and nuts, I'm afraid. The only vestige of a conservative Virginia is in the state legislature. Dem governor, Dem senators, and don't forget that Rubio came in second to Trump; the "Virginia Tea Party" that some wishcaster on here was talking about is skeletal, and couldn't manage to give Cruz second place. Ed Gillespie was almost as lackluster a candidate as Cuccinelli and Jerry Kilgore were. Never thought I'd see the state go down like this, but I'm afraid it's pretty much Dem-captive.

Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 02:44 PM (Bdeb0)

230 ".Also that poll has a D+8 which hasn't happened since 2008 when obama was first on the ballot. Hillary is not going to generate that kind of enthusiasm no matter what people are saying."

Trump may drive Democrats to the polls.

Hispanics in particular.

Posted by: Harun at May 23, 2016 02:45 PM (UBBWX)

231 Yes, I believe he will choose a woman as Veep not for the v card on the ticket, but because he is the alpha dog and he won't have another alpha male on his ticket.

---

Could i act any more Beta?

Posted by: Chris Christy at May 23, 2016 02:46 PM (oGRue)

232 204 McCain wanted Joe Lieberman, for crying out loud, and hated Sarah Palin.

----------

Has anyone else ever heard this before?
____________________

There were rumors in 2008 that McCain was considering his buddy Lieberman. But his advisors feared that choosing a Democrat (former, whatever) would confirm conservative voters' fears about McCain. Also, there was a feeling that McCain needed to choose a non-white male, to counter Obama's "historic first" identity-group crapola.

McCain chose Palin because she had a buzz around her in conservative circles, and because McCain liked her (back then). He also thought having a woman on the ticket would help generate some "historic first" excitement for him.

Posted by: TrivialPursuer at May 23, 2016 02:46 PM (BNs9e)

233 "Considering Rombley had shit for a GOTV and Ad campaign, and Trump's is...worse than Rombley's as of right now...things aren't looking too good for Trumpster. "

He could try to poach Cruz staff.

Except he may have angered them.

oh, well, the master persuader wins again.

Posted by: Harun at May 23, 2016 02:47 PM (UBBWX)

234 Interesting little vignette on facebutt.

Statement over pic of Lena Dunham:

"I can have an abortion if I want to. It's my body."

Answer from some guy: "It's not your body.

If it was your body, you'd be the one that dies."

Posted by: Meremortal, Something's stankin... at May 23, 2016 02:49 PM (3myMJ)

235 216... Kelly Ayotte has been an utter disappointment. I haven't come around to Trump yet, but I'm not 100% committed to sitting this one out either. If he picks a useless piece of RINO sludge like Kelly Ayotte as his running mate, I see no reason to vote for him. He's confirmed all the reasons I never believed he was a republican in the first place.

Posted by: Sam In VA at May 23, 2016 02:50 PM (bNi5D)

236 Forget the GOP primary vote and look at the general electorate. In order to have any hope of doing as well as Romney, Trump has to win over the 'moderate,' fuzzy voters who actually like the Ryamneysichio type.
That constituency probably represents a plurality of usual GOP voters in POTUS elections.

Most conservatives will suck it up and vote against Hillary, just as most Berniebots will suck it up and vote against Trump.

It's the mushy middle that is going to kill him.
So don't be surprised if he picks a VP to appeal to them.

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at May 23, 2016 02:50 PM (T/5A0)

237 Any chance Doug Wilder might endorse Trump? That would be awesome, just to watch the WaPo heads explode.
Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:42 PM (/m8T6)

No.

But that being said, there is no love lost between the Clinton wing of the party and Doug.

Posted by: Ashley Judd's Puffy Scamper, aka MrCaniac at May 23, 2016 02:51 PM (1JnAL)

238 Ugh, that is the worst! I have relatives who are medical doctors, and they don't throw around the "Dr." title outside of work because: humility.

------

I've heard that in Britain actual doctor level physicians prefer Mister, while the master degree docs prefer Doctor.

Posted by: Bigbys Cellphone at May 23, 2016 02:55 PM (Xq8vL)

239 Posted by: Sam In VA at May 23, 2016 02:50 PM (bNi5D)

If the designated funeral attender isn't to your satisfaction, it's over!

Posted by: Meremortal, Something's silly... at May 23, 2016 02:55 PM (3myMJ)

240 Candy and nuts, I'm afraid. The only vestige of a conservative Virginia is in the state legislature. Dem governor, Dem senators, and don't forget that Rubio came in second to Trump; the "Virginia Tea Party" that some wishcaster on here was talking about is skeletal, and couldn't manage to give Cruz second place. Ed Gillespie was almost as lackluster a candidate as Cuccinelli and Jerry Kilgore were. Never thought I'd see the state go down like this, but I'm afraid it's pretty much Dem-captive.

Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 02:44 PM (Bdeb0)

Umm, no.

Cuccinelli was a shitty candidate, but he could have won if not for E.W. Jackson being the Lt Gov. candidate. He drug the whole ticket down and did cost the GOP the AG office.

Gillespie lost because the national GOP was more interested in trying to prop up some candidates that should have been shoe-ins but were dragged down by being tied to Todd Akin and the magic vagina theory.

2017 will see Gillespie elected Governor and Obenshain as Lt. Gov.

Posted by: Ashley Judd's Puffy Scamper, aka MrCaniac at May 23, 2016 02:57 PM (1JnAL)

241 If Clinton picked Warren (I know, I know), Trump picking Jindal would be comedy gold.
Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 02:38 PM (Bdeb0)

Trump: "Unlike the Democrats, our VP candidate is a *real* Indian..."

Posted by: John Madden at May 23, 2016 02:57 PM (N1Wpo)

242 No offense, but getting advice from Allahpundit on politics is like getting advice from Gen. George B. McClellan on how to beat Gen. Robert E. Lee. In fact I started using McClellan analogies for the GOP because of Allahpundit's blog posts at Hotair. You know always turning an army of 40,000 into an army of 300,000...stuff like that.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed his blog posts...I always enjoyed countering whatever he wrote in the comment section.

Posted by: William Eaton at May 23, 2016 02:59 PM (KhJh8)

243 >>Any chance Doug Wilder might endorse Trump? That would be awesome, just to watch the WaPo heads explode. Posted by: MTF at May 23, 2016 02:42 PM (/m8T6)

Yeah, have to agree with Magoo, though Doug is legendary for his petulance and unpredictability. The Post would (correctly) dismiss Wilder as an old crank.

Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 02:59 PM (Bdeb0)

244 Lots out there about Lieberman as McCain's pick:

http://tinyurl.com/hx9j4ku
http://tinyurl.com/62799l
http://tinyurl.com/mvqfbl2

As for hating Palin, that was hardly a secret

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 03:02 PM (39g3+)

245 >>but he could have won

I could have won the lottery if I'd bought the winning ticket.

>>Gillespie lost because the national GOP

Gillespie lost because Virginia is a blue state, and Gillespie has the personality of a shoe sole.

>>2017 will see Gillespie elected Governor and Obenshain as Lt. Gov.

Depends on who the Dems run, but your prediction is very unlikely. The sooner the VAGOP can rid itself of the Obenshain machine in Richmond, the better for all involved.

Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 03:03 PM (Bdeb0)

246 Lots out there about Lieberman as McCain's pick:

http://tinyurl.com/hx9j4ku
http://tinyurl.com/62799l
http://tinyurl.com/mvqfbl2

As for hating Palin, that was hardly a secret

-------------

I knew about him saying things about Lieberman, but he was never going to pick him - being a Dem and all. I have never heard anything about him hating Palin. My point is this - Palin wasn't thrusted upon him by the delegates. He did not want Lieberman over Palin but the delegates made him take Palin.

Posted by: SH at May 23, 2016 03:03 PM (gmeXX)

247 >>Trump: "Unlike the Democrats, our VP candidate is a *real* Indian..." Posted by: John Madden at May 23, 2016 02:57 PM (N1Wpo)

...and you know The Donald wouldn't be able to help himself: "...and that's dot, not feather, Indian."

Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 03:05 PM (Bdeb0)

248 Note one other thing: The Democrats in several important swing states depend on labor unions doing a lot of work carrying the election for them. Not just votes, but volunteering, and some other stuff which I leave to your imagination.

Trump has a chance of dividing them, or at lest the foot soldiers. This is heightened by his opponent being Hillary. The Clintons who gave us big trade deals and lovers of wall street. Once again it is not just the union people who vote, but more important do all the hard work getting the Democrat the victory.

I would look at Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin as an important test of this theory. I admit I could be wrong. It is better than the alternative battle plan: Trying to win Latino votes by pushing amnesty which is what the GOP leadership wanted to do after Romney blew it.

Posted by: William Eaton at May 23, 2016 03:15 PM (KhJh8)

249 He did not want Lieberman over Palin but the delegates made him take Palin.

Well I guess you can just ignore the stuff I posted entirely, then.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at May 23, 2016 03:28 PM (39g3+)

250 21 "...bernouts go right back into the fold like the good little donks they are."
Of course they will. What would you expect?
It means you and all the other nevertrumps need to get on board and quit yer whinning.

Posted by: jacke at May 23, 2016 03:30 PM (uo+Hy)

251 60 "Sure, you believe it when Allah says it, but back when we were telling you Trump would rise and Hillary would fall, you said we were all blind cult followers, devoid of the knowledge available to New York based political writers."

Yeah well that's a score yet to be settled with the nevertrumpers.

Posted by: jacke at May 23, 2016 03:36 PM (uo+Hy)

252 Depends on who the Dems run, but your prediction is very unlikely. The sooner the VAGOP can rid itself of the Obenshain machine in Richmond, the better for all involved.
Posted by: General Zod at May 23, 2016 03:03 PM (Bdeb0)

Actually, the Magic Vagina Republicans have been in control of the Virginia GOP, and when they run, they lose.

The conservative wing of the GOP wins in Virginia as long as it isn't the Pat Robertson/Falwell wing.

Posted by: Ashley Judd's Puffy Scamper, aka MrCaniac at May 23, 2016 04:15 PM (1JnAL)

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