The Big Loss For Donald Trump: The Dog That Didn't Bark

Before getting to that, let me pass along a theory from Pat Caddell. Pat Caddell noted that New Hampshire voted for Clinton in 2008, after Obama had won Iowa.

He doesn't think New Hampshire really loved Clinton. Rather, given that Obama had won Iowa, New Hampshire voters were confronted with a dilemma: If we vote for Obama, essentially Obama is the winner of the entire primary. Back to back wins will make him nigh-unstoppable.

Caddell's idea is that it wasn't that New Hampshire was really backing Clinton, so much as it was saying "Let's make sure this Obama is really acceptable, let's have a longer nomination process."

He thinks that given all the talk that if Trump won Iowa (given his big lead in New Hampshire) that the nomination would be all but his caused Iowa voters, this time, to take a step back and ask: Do we really want such a short nomination process? Are we really entirely comfortable with Trump? Maybe we should keep kicking the tires on this thing a while longer and vote for Cruz (and also, the huge third-place finisher who really won everything, Marco Rubio).

That's a theory. However, here's another important consideration.

All along, I have been open to the idea of a Trump candidacy on the possibility that there was an X Factor lurking out there, a mass of voters -- doesn't have to be huge, just 2-3% would be plenty big -- who were disaffected from the political system but who could be induced into it by the Trump candidacy.

Personally, I felt like Iowa in Caddell's theory. I was interested in this idea, while not being convinced it was actually accurate. I, too, wanted a longer nomination process to test this theory of Democrats crossing over to Trump, and long-alienated Perot/Buchanan voters rejoining the process.

Trump's second place finish is not some huge setback -- except that it calls into question the size of this hypothesized block of Trump voters willing to vote for Trump but not other candidates.

Trump's three big selling points are his position on immigration, his rejection of politically correct norms, and the possibility he can motivate a large block of disaffected voters back into the political process.

After Iowa, I don't know how much juice this third consideration has in it. In a way, Trump's good performance with evangelicals is bad for him, because we already knew evangelicals had high voting rates -- that is, they were always already part of the political process. They were known votes.

Thus, to the extent you think Trump did well with evangelicals, you have to deduct those Already Known Voters from his hypothesized pool of Non-Voters Suddenly Becoming Voters.

While he probably does attract more of such voters than most -- and we can attribute a bit of the very high turnout to a few of those non-voters deciding to vote -- Trump's second-place finish suggests (though it does not prove) that Trump's X Factor might really be a rather less impressive Z Factor. Something that exists, but not in some kind of paradigm-disrupting size.

I suppose this is where entrance and exit polling could provide further tenuous clues.

But the big proof -- Trump rolls to a comfortable win in Iowa, powered by new voters -- did not happen. We're left with the possibility of lesser proofs, of a phenomenon of a lesser dimension.

It could be that Trump remains a viable candidate, and maybe even improves along the way (as he's improved already). But in the first big test of one of the most important justifications for his candidacy, he failed to deliver these long-sought-after Missing Voters.

Posted by: Ace at 03:15 PM

Comments

(Jump to bottom of comments)

1 Pat Caddell is a beautiful man.

Posted by: Countrysquire, feeling reasonably fresh down there at February 02, 2016 03:16 PM (eEBON)

2 nice

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:16 PM (qCMvj)

3 The curious incident of the Hilldog.

Posted by: zombie at February 02, 2016 03:17 PM (jBuUi)

4 Pat Caddell is a beautiful man.
Posted by: Countrysquire, feeling reasonably fresh down there at February 02, 2016 03:16 PM (eEBON)

aye, matey

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:17 PM (qCMvj)

5 Trump's support is like a Texas river, a mile wide and an inch deep.

Posted by: Roland THTG at February 02, 2016 03:18 PM (QM5S2)

6 An interesting take here Ace, the losers actually lost. Now that I think about that, it really shouldn't be so novel, huh?

Posted by: Flyguy at February 02, 2016 03:19 PM (r2qlt)

7
Schlonged in the corn hole.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at February 02, 2016 03:19 PM (uhkms)

8 Caddell's idea is that it wasn't that New Hampshire was really backing Clinton, so much as it was saying "Let's make sure this Obama is really acceptable, let's have a longer nomination process."

not sure democrats can think this far out

critical thinking skills are particularly low with that crowd

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:19 PM (qCMvj)

9 We couldn't afford that wall anyway.

Posted by: Mexico at February 02, 2016 03:19 PM (8ZskC)

10 Love how second place is a loss.

Fucking hysterical.

Posted by: Bigby's Coin Flip at February 02, 2016 03:20 PM (3ZtZW)

11 I just want the establishment to lose.I want them crushed.

Posted by: steevy at February 02, 2016 03:20 PM (8HTq1)

12 *stretches out in new thread*

Nice. Comfy.

Still has that new thread smell.

Obligatory not a Trump supporter disclaimer:

Here's my concern. Trump is many things but actually stupid is not one of them. It appears that he attempted to win Iowa without a traditional ground game. That didn't work.

My concern, and I'm not concern trolling this is an actual concern, is that Trump goes okay so it appears I do need to use traditional ground game tactics. What happens next? We get the most luxurious, classy like you wouldn't believe, world class, you'll be sick of winning ground game out there with yuuuuuuge amounts of walking around money.

In which case, I, for one, welcome my new bathing in sun block when I move to Belize overlord.

Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD at February 02, 2016 03:20 PM (mf5HN)

13 Well if Trump doesn't win the nomination then it's either going to be Cruz who can't win nationally or Marco Rubio who is a snake.

So the burning times it is then.

Posted by: Kreplach at February 02, 2016 03:20 PM (sELnb)

14 Or, Cruz was better organized in IA while Trump was flying by the seat of his pants. We'll see how much organization counts in NH.

Posted by: joncelli, Boned like You at February 02, 2016 03:20 PM (RD7QR)

15 We will get the President we deserve.

Posted by: dfbaskwill at February 02, 2016 03:20 PM (zllbf)

16 BUT record turnout. Who were they? A lot of 1st timers. Who were they? Cruz went balls on in a GOTV but they were evangelicals, as you note. Rubio got establishment squishes. Trump had big enough numbers but who were they?

I agree with premise of comment ace but don't think the "3rd Big Selling Point" question was answered last night. Maybe NH exit polls will be more enlightening.

Posted by: oddnot not liking these times at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (g1MTt)

17 >>>Love how second place is a loss.

Fucking hysterical.

...

did you read the post, or are you just going by the headline?

Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (dciA+)

18 Trump is an asshole.

Posted by: maddogg, now certified infrequently vile at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (xWW96)

19 Wasn't it like a week ago that the headlines were about Trump just then taking the lead in Iowa? And now his loss is a major setback?

Certainly he would have been better off with a win but this doesn't seem much below his reasonable expectations unless the expectation was "Trump wins as a miracle happens."

If he maintains the same performance relative to his polls he'll be just fine in New Hampshire.

Posted by: Jake at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (cE4FA)

20 Trump's three big selling points are his position on immigration, his rejection of politically correct norms, and the possibility he can motivate a large block of disaffected voters back into the political process.

After Iowa, I don't know how much juice this third consideration has in it.

How many disaffected voters does Iowa have?

Posted by: rickb223 at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (jqZ8a)

21 Personally, I felt like Iowa in Caddell's theory. I was interested in this idea, while not being convinced it was actually accurate. I, too, wanted a longer nomination process to test this theory of Democrats crossing over to Trump, and long-alienated Perot/Buchanan voters rejoining the process.

but you kinda do this for a living

many people caucusing are serious voters, but still -- not convinced they think this deeply, so much is based on emotion imho

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (qCMvj)

22 I would enjoy being shuttled to the polls in a Rolls Royce.

Posted by: A New Hampshire Voter at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (8ZskC)

23
Are we not all phenomena of a lesser dimension?

This flat screen has only 2

Posted by: JohnnyBoy at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (l2Gqi)

24 I know they hate Cruz,they hate Trump,they hate Carson.I wanted those 1-2-3 and crushing the hopes of the establishment but frikkin Carson shit the bed.

Posted by: steevy at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (8HTq1)

25 i'm not sure how the post can be assailed. Seems... modest in its conclusions, but also sound.

Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (dciA+)

26 "In a way, Trump's good performance with evangelicals is bad for him, because we already knew evangelicals had high voting rates -- that is, they were always already part of the political process. They were known votes."

Maybe Iowa evangelicals had high voting rates, but Cruz has said he based his whole national campaign on getting out the vote of the three million Christian conservatives who stayed home the last couple times. He has said he's rounding up the old Reagan coalition.

Posted by: RushBabe at February 02, 2016 03:22 PM (/NEnw)

27 To me that sounds a lot like over-thinking something. "Well, Iowa did this, so New Hampshire thinks 'We better go and do this.'"

Wait. Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire are individuals. They are composed of individuals. And those individuals have a past, connections, live amongst a history, a culture all mixed into a society. Those individuals vote based on all of that experience and their own instinct. I do not think that there is any simple explanation at this stage of the game. Later on the bandwagon effect kicks in, but right now I am wary of assigning simple explanations to what has happened.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - ReFit your Conniptions at the Outrage Outlet! at February 02, 2016 03:22 PM (hLRSq)

28 "We're left with the possibility of lesser proofs, of a phenomenon of a lesser dimension."

I could not have said it better myself.

Posted by: Rod Serling at February 02, 2016 03:22 PM (OD2ni)

29 did you read the post, or are you just going by the headline?

Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (dciA+)

Headlines? I thought those were Executive Summaries.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at February 02, 2016 03:22 PM (8ZskC)

30
I'd like to say things couldn't be any weirder, but I know that isn't the case.
Sure it'll take some doing, but it'll happen. Even if ittakes Bernie Sanders finally admitting he's an alien, from space.

Posted by: simplemind at February 02, 2016 03:22 PM (JTwsP)

31 Well, he didn't hit a leadoff grandslam, just a double, so he's a loser and his slugging percentage is probably overrated.

Posted by: Count de Monet at February 02, 2016 03:22 PM (JO9+V)

32 Lets pretend the world is college and both the GOP and Dems are hosting house parties.

The GOPs house party has had the same selling points each year, and they've gotta a pretty okay turn out with.

Trump just came and crashed the party with a bunch of his closest friends, he wasn't welcomed by the people hosting nor by most of the other guests. He's now kinda being forced to leave, but some of his buddies, a lot of 'GOP curious people' kinda like this party and might even want to stay, even with their ringleader out of the picture.

My point is, I think we are going to see record turnouts for NH, SC, and NV, but I think outside of NH, Trump doesn't win. Because while I think Trump brought a lot of people to watch the debates, or his rallies or read the newspapers, I think a lot of them have found more enjoyment from hanging out with Kool Kid Cruz in the corner, or wannabe life of the party Rubio.

Anyways just my 2c, we'll see if he can actually get his people to commit to voting for him.

Posted by: AlexHemsley at February 02, 2016 03:22 PM (CBGRs)

33 >>>
I agree with premise of comment ace but don't think the "3rd Big Selling Point" question was answered last night. Maybe NH exit polls will be more enlightening.

iowa may not have disproven the x factor, but it at least failed to affirmatively prove it.

Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:22 PM (dciA+)

34 I suspect that if Iow-er had a simple election process of the sort with which occasional voters or nonvoters are more comfortable, one which is largely private and quick, instead of the cumbersome and slow and visibly public "caucus" relic system, Trump would have improved his showing.

Posted by: torquewrench at February 02, 2016 03:22 PM (noWW6)

35 My theory is simpler. Bubba won NH twice in the primary and twice in the general and it is a much more centrist state than Iowa.

Posted by: JackStraw at February 02, 2016 03:23 PM (/tuJf)

36 did you read the post, or are you just going by the headline?

===

Read it. Not closely, but did.
Seeing a lot of the same type of tilt elsewhere.

Posted by: Bigby's Coin Flip at February 02, 2016 03:23 PM (3ZtZW)

37 Non-voters are non-voters for a reason.... they are the type of people who don't have the habit of voting. College students, transients, low information voters, under- or unemployed people fall into this category. They might get theoretically excited by a candidate, but they won't necessarily take the time to figure out where to go to vote, how to register and, when the time comes, won't get off the couch or put down the bong long enough to vote. The idea that Trump would excite a lot of these folks to vote was always silly. He might excite them to answer an online poll, but that's about it.

Obama was different because what was driving the turnout of new voters for him was pure tribalism. Trumpistas, no matter what they say, aren't going to have the same kind of motivation.

And, Trump is just as likely to make a lot of conservative Republicans simply stay home if he's the nominee. So whoever he gets that would be a new voter would probably be offset by the habitual voters who might just refuse to hold their nose quite that much.

Posted by: The Regular Guy at February 02, 2016 03:23 PM (qHCyt)

38 I have a theory: given all the talk that if Trump won Iowa (given his big lead in New Hampshire) that the nomination would be all but his caused Iowa voters, this time, to take a step back and ask: Do we really want such a short nomination process?

Posted by: Amy Schumer at February 02, 2016 03:23 PM (OD2ni)

39 Trump waving a bible around reminded me of a chimp with a kindle. Absolutely no knowledge of what it is or what it is about, but is cool to wave around.

Posted by: maddogg, now certified infrequently vile at February 02, 2016 03:24 PM (xWW96)

40 We will get the President we deserve.

Personally, I hope it comes down to a coin flip.

Posted by: RushBabe at February 02, 2016 03:24 PM (/NEnw)

41 Won't really know the size of Trump's crossover appeal until the open primaries.

Posted by: random lurker at February 02, 2016 03:24 PM (+tRIN)

42
Until someone releases a few exit polls, we don't have any info to speculate on who voted for which guy and why. All I've seen so far are those fruity entrance polls.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (kdS6q)

43 Trump wasn't favored in Iowa until recently. The movement is real. He's 1 delegate behind, get a grip.

Posted by: Chris at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (A7sGw)

44 Oh,we are going to get what we deserve good and hard.

Posted by: steevy at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (8HTq1)

45 I think everyone should take a deep breath and do a little deep thinking.

And don't be surprised by the next big thing that goes 'splody. Because we will have another thing go 'splody.

Who will the country want to be in charge when that happens?

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (659DL)

46 Love how second place is a loss.

Fucking hysterical.

...

did you read the post, or are you just going by the headline?

------------

Its not a win is it?

Posted by: SH at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (gmeXX)

47 i'm not sure how the post can be assailed. Seems... modest in its conclusions, but also sound.

Given the amount of space the Gambler's Fallacy got in the last thread...

Posted by: Brother Cavil, Restorationist at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (9krrF)

48 It could be that Trump remains a viable candidate, and maybe even improves along the way (as he's improved already). But in the first big test of one of the most important justifications for his candidacy, he failed to deliver these long-sought-after Missing Voters.

it all depends on what he does

does he continue his brutish, ugly attacks (are Iowans stupid?, and Cruz is an anchor baby like stuff= awful and a turnoff), or will he do something substantial (Reaganesque as Rush was describing of the top 3 candidates today).

will he grow up, hit the books and fight with knowledge? or continue the same ole same ole, which is getting old

the next debate might shine a huge light on all of this

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (qCMvj)

49 motivate a large block of disaffected voters back into the political process.

Enough to go to a rally and enjoy the show, not enough to actually vote

Posted by: brak at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (xwPSp)

50 Also Trumps populist appeal may be broad, yet shallow. It appeals to large number of political novices who may be happy to answer a pollster but not to participate in a caucus system. Be very interested how his appeal draws in a non caucus system

Posted by: ThunderB at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (zOTsN)

51 Perhaps the Trump of Doom has been delayed/deferred.

Like SMOD or SCOD.

Posted by: Duncanthrax the Bellicose at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (ml1PM)

52 It always amazes me how people can argue anything and everything. If Trump wins, it's good for Trump. If Cruz wins, it's good for Trump. If Trump wins it's good for Rubio. If Cruz wins, it's good for Rubio.

Like... I've heard every possible permutation argued.

Posted by: joe at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (KUaJL)

53 >>>Trump wasn't favored in Iowa until recently. The movement is real. He's 1 delegate behind, get a grip.

i love people who don't read but feel pretty confident in their disagreement.

Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:26 PM (dciA+)

54 Microsoft yo

... too soon?

Posted by: Knemon at February 02, 2016 03:26 PM (7k4e8)

55 To a certain extent -

Shenanigans are baked into the cake with this GOP primary-

a lot of states with open primaries plus proportional allotment of votes means that

it will be very to take an outright win.

If Trump were smart, he'd crush Rubio first.

Then worry about Cruz.

Becuz the GOPe have proven they are more likely to flock to him.

Posted by: naturalfake at February 02, 2016 03:26 PM (0cMkb)

56 Posted by: Amy Schumer at February 02, 2016 03:23 PM (OD2ni)

I seriously love this meme.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at February 02, 2016 03:26 PM (659DL)

57 The candidate who discovers how to get every missing vote that is out there is the candidate who wins the whole Turducken, always and everywhere for all time.

6 outa 6 coin flips.

Posted by: John Madden, Chief Campaign Correspondent at February 02, 2016 03:26 PM (eG9Pt)

58
Ah, NBC has an Exit Poll up today:

www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/IA

Scroll down.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:26 PM (kdS6q)

59 10 >> Love how second place is a loss.

To quote a 2013 Trump tweet,

"No one remembers who came in second."

Posted by: GnuBreed at February 02, 2016 03:27 PM (gyKtp)

60 Wow... so now the leader of the National Polls, is almost out of the race...

Because one POLL (not even a primary) of self selected individuals, in ONE State...

About 15% of registered voters there...

He lost by about 4%....

Do any of you know ANYONE who will change their vote, based on what the STRAW POLL in Iowa says?

Or is this something for Writers and Pundits and news folks to make a big deal about? and more, try to convince US its a big deal?

There were no Republican Delegates chosen last night...

As I postulated earlier, the Iowa Straw Poll is like Pre Season.... fun to watch, and writers get to obsess... but really does not mean anything to the regular season...

Posted by: Don Quixote at February 02, 2016 03:27 PM (f7rv6)

61 In which case, I, for one, welcome my new bathing in sun block when I move to Belize overlord.
Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD

*invests in SPF 15,000 futures*

Posted by: Bandersnatch, Opus/Bill the Cat 2016 at February 02, 2016 03:27 PM (1xUj/)

62 Won't really know the size of Trump's crossover appeal until the open primaries.

==

This, I think. Plenty of former GOP out there who can't do the primary voting because independent.

Posted by: Bigby's Coin Flip at February 02, 2016 03:27 PM (3ZtZW)

63 amy schumer, you took the words right out of my mouth.

Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:27 PM (dciA+)

64 Ace,

I don't care what you say, butterscotch is the best sundae flavor.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at February 02, 2016 03:27 PM (659DL)

65 And we are less than a day after the Iowa caucuses ended, so I think it is a bit premature to expound on the significance of the event.

Trend lines, after all, are only obvious long after they have started.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - ReFit your Conniptions at the Outrage Outlet! at February 02, 2016 03:28 PM (hLRSq)

66 The movement is real.

-----------

This may be true. But it may not be as big as people think. And I think it is actually pretty big. Just not big enough to be its own coalition. I don't think the movement should be disccounted. The GOP should find a way to serve it and benefit from it.

Posted by: SH at February 02, 2016 03:28 PM (gmeXX)

67 I hate to base anything on Iowa--

less than 200,000 Republican voters

BUT from early on, I have always thought it would come down to Cruz vs Rubio, but I must admit I was surprised that Trump has hung in there as strong as he had.

We will know more next Wednesday. Or not

Posted by: Nevergiveup at February 02, 2016 03:28 PM (kzdjp)

68 With the amount �Jeb! spent per vote, he could get a stripper at a decent hourly rate to give you a lap dance on your drive there.

Posted by: boulder terlit hobo at February 02, 2016 03:28 PM (nqjIy)

69 Cruz has to win NH and MUST win SC before anyone actually takes him seriously.
If those two things happen, then a lot of people will be crapping themselves.
Odds of that are low.
If Trump pours on the gas he can roll over both of these fairly easily.

Posted by: Leonard Pinth-Garnell at February 02, 2016 03:28 PM (2bryz)

70 So, on to New Hamster!

Where the dominant local concern of the day, according to polls, is what sort of expensive intrusive new government program to set up in order to reduce the local boom in heroin overdose deaths.

In related news, I have unfortunately had to let go my #Torque2016 campaign manager (the fourth one). He opined to the NH press on this subject that "If I had to live in a cold. boring dump like this state, I'd probably OD from shooting smack into my eyeballs, too."

Not saying that he was wrong, mind you. Just... _insufficiently nuanced_.

Posted by: torquewrench at February 02, 2016 03:28 PM (noWW6)

71 Given the amount of space the Gambler's Fallacy got in the last thread...
Posted by: Brother Cavil, Restorationist at February 02, 2016 03:25 PM (9krrF)

Don't try to shut me down with math here man, we've had a run of bad threads, we're bound to get a good one sooner or later.

Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 03:28 PM (xuouz)

72 I'm glad that everyone got a trophy. 3rd is just as good as 1st in a fair world, so share your money too, unless you are a racist.

Posted by: goon at February 02, 2016 03:29 PM (gy5kE)

73 >>> i love people who don't read but feel pretty confident in their disagreement

I think the point is that you have to know a baseline to know if Trump underperformed and by how much. Do you go by the polls? Just the latest one? How about the one where he had 20% the day before?

Or compare him to other candidates who were strong in New Hampshire, like Romney and McCain. Or to other candidates with his lack of religious bona fides.

The constellation of Trump baggage is going to weigh him down differently in different states. If it was heavier in Iowa then that could offset the good intangibles he's bringing to the table. In states where his negatives aren't such a big deal the x factor could still shine through.

Posted by: Jake at February 02, 2016 03:29 PM (cE4FA)

74 40
Personally, I hope it comes down to a coin flip.
Posted by: RushBabe at February 02, 2016 03:24 PM (/NEnw)

Works for me.

Posted by: Hillary! at February 02, 2016 03:29 PM (zoehZ)

75 Caddell just sounds like he's trying to personify something going on in the electorate that's too complicated to be real.

Maybe a better theory is that they like an underdog.

Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 03:29 PM (/q6+P)

76 We will get the President we deserve.

Personally, I hope it comes down to a coin flip.

Posted by: RushBabe at February 02, 2016 03:24 PM (/NEnw)

Hey, RB socked my post!

Posted by: Hillary C at February 02, 2016 03:29 PM (/NEnw)

77
And some pulls from that poll:

This is my first caucus - 45% of R voters

Trump 30%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 22%

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:30 PM (kdS6q)

78 (Tries Jedi mind trick)
Trump is not the candidate you're looking for.

Posted by: Skip at February 02, 2016 03:30 PM (hk3Fb)

79 And, Trump is just as likely to make a lot of conservative Republicans simply stay home if he's the nominee.

This is true, unfortunately.

Posted by: Grey Fox at February 02, 2016 03:30 PM (bZ7mE)

80 i'm not sure how the post can be assailed. Seems... modest in its conclusions, but also sound.

Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (dciA+)

knee-jerk reactions by hypersensitive people
who haven't read it

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:30 PM (qCMvj)

81 Who the hell knows what those corn-fed, flyover hicks think? Cruz was telling them if they didn't vote for him they'd go to hell.

Posted by: Make America Great Again at February 02, 2016 03:30 PM (LXJ1e)

82 Trump's second place finish is not some huge setback -- except that it
calls into question the size of this hypothesized block of Trump voters
willing to vote for Trump but not other candidates.
---
Well it calls into question how many of those there were to be had in Iowa, a state which routinely gets its ass kissed by every politician every four years. It's probably worth taking a wait and see position on the phenomenon and compare what happens in his better states (if he's at 35-40% nationally, and was only at 27-ish in the Iowa polling, then there must be somewhere he's well north of 40%. *That* would be the sort of state to watch for weakness).

Posted by: Methos, AoS commenter since 2006, apparently also non-voting democrat at February 02, 2016 03:30 PM (ZbV+0)

83 Don't try to shut me down with math here man, we've had a run of bad threads, we're bound to get a good one sooner or later.

/gazes back to 2005

//flips coin AGAIN

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at February 02, 2016 03:30 PM (659DL)

84 I think there ARE quite a few old-style, blue-collar Dems and all-around disaffected voters out there that might go for Trump in a general election. (Not nearly as many as the suburban squishy-cons who voted for Romney but will NOT vote for Trump --- but that's a different subject.)

But a primary battle is different. Most people, and above all disaffected LIVs, don't even think to vote in primaries. They wait and see what garbage the parties throw up.

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at February 02, 2016 03:31 PM (T/5A0)

85 One of the things I like about the Cruz win in IA. We've just learned that cutting back ethanol subsidies is not a campaign killer.

Posted by: Soona at February 02, 2016 03:31 PM (Fmupd)

86 Ace, Trump's crossover appeal isn't with the Republican base and it sure as hell isn't with evangelicals. His ability to poach blue collar democrats in rust belt and coastal states is his big appeal.

What I'm trying to say is that it has largely to do with geography, and he knew Iowa wasn't home field. By next week we may know. In March we definitely will.

Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 03:31 PM (xuouz)

87 Trump has Yuuuge leads in the polls for all the upcoming races. He did reasonably well in Iowa where over 60% of the Republican voters are Holy Rollers, and where Cruz had to play every trick he could to paint Trump a Harlot from New York's Sodom (which will hurt Cruz down the line).

Rubio will at best be a distant third in NH and SC and will get crushed in his home state of Florida.

It's still Trump's to lose.

Posted by: Ignoramus at February 02, 2016 03:31 PM (r1fLd)

88
President Trump has certain, **comedic** possibilities that might be useful to a blog author or late night talk show host.
Of course you may think this concern a trifle, considerhowever, thatwhen your doom is inevitable, comedy is quite a useful item.

Posted by: simplemind at February 02, 2016 03:31 PM (JTwsP)

89 I think all conservatives and republicans should take a good hard look at Marco Rubio. The youth, the vitality, the fact that he can not only speak one language but Is cunnilingious, the desire to work with the 'other side'.�Please don't comb-over his negatives.

Posted by: Disengenious Democrat Crossover Voter at February 02, 2016 03:31 PM (fbovC)

90 Trump LOVES Iowa. Hell, he's gonna MOVE to Iowa. Gonna buy a farm and move to Iowa. He wants to make love to Iowa, up the ass even......

Posted by: maddogg, now certified infrequently vile at February 02, 2016 03:31 PM (xWW96)

91 There are a lot of surprises that could happen along the way:

Even more crimes committed by HRC comes out where the DOJ has to indict her and she drops out.

Bill Clinton dies and HRC milks it for all she is worth.

Any other Candidate has a scandal come out that previously was unknown by the general public. I think that more drama awaits.

Posted by: Cheri at February 02, 2016 03:31 PM (oiNtH)

92 This is my first caucus - 45% of R voters

Trump 30%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 22%

----

Kinda kills the "we cant alienate the moderate middle" myth dont it.

Bite me Karl Rove

Posted by: fixerupper at February 02, 2016 03:32 PM (8XRCm)

93 "With the amount Jeb! spent per vote, he could get a stripper at a
decent hourly rate to give you a lap dance on your drive there."

The other standout in terms of massive expenditure producing an underwhelming outcome was of course Canquelles.

She probably outspent Sanders twenty to one. And held back results from at least one precinct that we know of, where the vote total went against her. And still managed to generate only a statistical tie.

Posted by: torquewrench at February 02, 2016 03:32 PM (noWW6)

94 For as long as Iowa has been the first state to vote, people have been using it as a measuring stick for all sorts of things. Cruz went all in in Iowa because it is by far his best bet for a win in the first two states. Rubio had much less of a presence and Trump was somewhere in between.

I think most people expected they would finish in the positions they did so they then started focusing on how well they did relative to the others and to their polling averages. Cruz did about as expected, Trump underperformed and Rubio over performed.

This type of analysis has been going on forever. Why is it bugging people this year?

Posted by: JackStraw at February 02, 2016 03:32 PM (/tuJf)

95 Cruz has to win NH and MUST win SC before anyone actually takes him seriously.

Cruz will not win NH. Trump will. A Democratic who pretends to be a Republican works there See Scott Brown.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 03:32 PM (w4NZ8)

96 Disingenuous*

Posted by: boulder terlit hobo at February 02, 2016 03:32 PM (nqjIy)

97 Another theory: After reading some history on Iowa voters it seems that said Iowa voters are more of a "what-can-you-give-or-do-for-me" type of people. It seems like they feel the need for politicians to pander to them and coddle them. Are they babies in grown up bodies?

Posted by: Greg at February 02, 2016 03:33 PM (i//VM)

98
No matter which caucus you attend today, do you usually think of yourself as a:

Independent or something else 20%
Trump 22%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 19%

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:33 PM (kdS6q)

99 I still think that all of the strategy that went into creating a field to ensure Jeb!'s victory plays into Trump's hands now. There is the Trump vote, and there is the not-Trump vote. Right now everyone has their panties in a wad about what Iowa means, when all of electoral history seems to indicate the answer to what Iowa means: dick.

Trump still leads big in polls in other states, and he will continue to lead big in those other states unless and until he doesn't. We'll see if Rubio can suddenly make a bunch of people line up around buildings to see him. I doubt it.

Posted by: major major major major at February 02, 2016 03:33 PM (BI/k4)

100 Or is this something for Writers and Pundits and news folks to make a big deal about? and more, try to convince US its a big deal?
-------
Hmm

Posted by: RioBravo at February 02, 2016 03:34 PM (NUqwG)

101 >>>i'm not sure how the post can be assailed. Seems... modest in its conclusions, but also sound.
Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:21 PM (dciA+) <<<

There are several keys to looking for whether this post might be assailable:

1)
It depends on your expectations of the post. Did you expect it to have
modest conclusions? Then maybe it's not assailable. But if you expected
it to have more significant conclusions, then maybe it should be
assailed?

2) And what about the soundness gap? Was it
posted in the forest? If it did, maybe it wasn't so sound,
and would be very assailable?

Posted by: Amy Schumer, who definitely didn't read the blog last night at February 02, 2016 03:34 PM (H9MG5)

102 Trump waving a bible around reminded me of a chimp with a kindle. Absolutely no knowledge of what it is or what it is about, but is cool to wave around.
Posted by: maddogg, now certified infrequently vile at February 02, 2016 03:24 PM (xWW96)

Deeply Religious Trump Confuses Communion Offering for Donation Plate

starts digging in his pockets for money

kinda funny

http://bit.ly/1SnOZpD

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:34 PM (qCMvj)

103
On most political matters, do you consider yourself:

Very conservative 40%
Cruz 44%
Trump 21%
Rubio 15%

Somewhat conservative 45%
Rubio 29%
Trump 24%
Cruz 19%

Moderate 14%
Trump 34%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 9%

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:34 PM (kdS6q)

104 >>>Trump wasn't favored in Iowa until recently. The movement is real. He's 1 delegate behind, get a grip.

i love people who don't read but feel pretty confident in their disagreement.

Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:26 PM (dciA+)

So, I'll show my cards and tell yunz what I'm rooting for.

Ace has been pretty balanced so far, going as far as being Trump-curious.

What I want is more retards attacking him for deviating from the Gospel of the Trump so that ace, in his persnicketiness, goes full on Death to the Trump Scum!

Because I love popcorn.

Posted by: Bandersnatch, Opus/Bill the Cat 2016 at February 02, 2016 03:34 PM (1xUj/)

105 Can we just take a moment to appreciate the fact that the aspie nerd won by being an aspie nerd?

Because I think that's somethin

Posted by: Lauren at February 02, 2016 03:34 PM (3DIzJ)

106 This type of analysis has been going on forever. Why is it bugging people this year?

------------

All three can really claim some sort of victory from Iowa. I think all Iowa did was narrow it down to the big 3 going forward. I hope.

Posted by: SH at February 02, 2016 03:34 PM (gmeXX)

107 We will get the President we deserve.

Personally, I hope it comes down to a coin flip.

Posted by: RushBabe at February 02, 2016 03:24 PM (/NEnw)

Me, too!

Posted by: Hillary! at February 02, 2016 03:34 PM (ZbV+0)

108 "But the big proof -- Trump rolls to a comfortable win in Iowa, powered by new voters -- did not happen. We're left with the possibility of lesser proofs, of a phenomenon of a lesser dimension."

Or as you suggest, Cruz' GOTV effort swamped any of Trumps' momentum (Weren't evangelicals out in record numbers for Cruz?), or some combination of the two. I hope Trump learns a lesson from this.

Posted by: rebel flounder at February 02, 2016 03:34 PM (3dOE/)

109 Maddogg is mad

Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 03:35 PM (xuouz)

110 77
And some pulls from that poll:

This is my first caucus - 45% of R voters

Trump 30%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 22%
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:30 PM (kdS6q)

So maybe it is just the weirdness of the Iowa caucus system. Is NH an open primary?

Posted by: joncelli, Boned like You at February 02, 2016 03:35 PM (RD7QR)

111 amy schumer, you took the words right out of my mouth.
Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016 03:27 PM (dciA+)

Oh good I haven't had aspiration pneumonia in awhile.

I know, I know, that's what I get for violating Rules For Morons #4: Never eat or drink anything whilst reading the comments.

Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD at February 02, 2016 03:35 PM (mf5HN)

112 amy schumer, you took the words right out of my mouth.Posted by: ace Yes this meme is great. Anotherone of the unusual delights of the HQ. So oddly satisfying.

Posted by: simplemind at February 02, 2016 03:35 PM (JTwsP)

113 69 Cruz has to win NH and MUST win SC before anyone actually takes him seriously.
If those two things happen, then a lot of people will be crapping themselves.
Odds of that are low.
If Trump pours on the gas he can roll over both of these fairly easily.
Posted by: Leonard Pinth-Garnell at February 02, 2016 03:28 PM (2bryz)

Right, winning Iowa doesn't mean anything. No reason to take Cruz seriously in winning the highest vote total in Iowa history for a Republican Caucus. That's just a sideshow. Uh huh. Right.

Posted by: Sean at February 02, 2016 03:35 PM (JWRY9)

114 Posted by: Make America Great Again at February 02, 2016 03:30 PM (LXJ1e)

You're kidding, correct? You just forgot to put the sarcasm tag?

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (w4NZ8)

115 he can motivate a large block of disaffected voters back into the political process.

Going to an Iowa caucus vs. just walking in and voting in a primary isn't a valid test of this theory.

Posted by: DaveA at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (DL2i+)

116 I think the lesson is free media coverage is not a substitute for a get out the vote apparatus

Remember ORCA? Super duper computer analytics to find and produce voters? Tons of money. Didn't work

Pretty clear all candidates need a boots on the ground get out the vote apparatus

Posted by: ThunderB at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (zOTsN)

117 When it comes to Trump bringing in disaffected voters and non-Republican voters back into the process, I submit my uncle, a lifelong Democrat--a retired mailman--who has never EVER pulled the lever for a Republican. He can't wait to vote for Trump.

I myself don't like Trump, but I'm a pessimist and my theory is that soon we --the country--are going down in flames anyway, so we might as well roll the dice with Trump.

Posted by: JoeF. at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (dVwzN)

118 He doesn't think New Hampshire really loved Clinton. Rather, given that Obama had won Iowa, New Hampshire voters were confronted with a dilemma: If we vote for Obama, essentially Obama is the winner of the entire primary. Back to back wins will make him nigh-unstoppable.

This is way overthinking it. Vlinton won all the primary "elections" and Barky won the primary caucuses. It's just that simple. barky's thugs were only effective in caucus combat. In the regular primary elections - with voting booths and secret votes and all, they went pretty massively for Shrillary.

Barky won only because of the super-delegates, which were the only real power in the dem party. It had nothing to do with primary elections or primary causes, which all went pretty much by script - caucuses to Barky and elections to Shrillary.

Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (zc3Db)

119 There's also going to be a bunch of people like me. I will vote -- despite being in California and having it likely not matter.....but I don't respond to polls, I won't pick-up robocalls, all campaign information goes directly to the trash, and I sure-as-hell won't be distributing literature like I did in 2012.

I suspect that there's a surly lot of us out there who might confound the pollsters.

Posted by: cthulhu at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (EzgxV)

120 I think S.C. will be the first test, but that Trump was supposed to win in Iowa and didn't is a good sign.

Posted by: Skip at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (hk3Fb)

121 I think the Iowa primary is anomalous by nature. The caucus is an odd beast.

The real news to me is
1. Sanders beat Hillary.
2. Systematic cheating, apparently DNC sanctioned, denied Saunders his victory.

Posted by: Semi-Literate Thug at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (/f6Nd)

122 meh, Trump's second place finish does not say too much. Says less about his weakness than his strength.

someone said earlier Trump received more votes last night than any other republican had ever received.

it was his first time in any election ever. he had a plan he went with it to see how it would go, now he is able to adjust as necessary.

Posted by: yankeefifth at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (vb33c)

123 Trump does have a lot of selling himself to do.

I have heard from friends who always vote, would never consider voting Demcorat, who hate Hillary, that they will sit this out if Trump wins.

I think the excitement was high in Iowa because of Trump. But there were definitely those who came out to against Trump. Against him, not for him.

Trump might get a few cross overs, disaffected, but he is likely to offset that with people who are animated to come vote against him in the General too.

Posted by: petunia at February 02, 2016 03:36 PM (VoCyE)

124 " ... man, we've had a run of bad threads, we're bound to get a good one sooner or later."

Wot? What about the physics / chemistry thread, or pretty much any random Maet ONT?

Harsh, mon, harsh.

Posted by: Duncanthrax the Bellicose at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (ml1PM)

125 Dragging joke:
Maybe they just kept flipping it until they got it "right." Didn't bother to count the "wrong" flips.

It's not like Hillary supporters know what they're seeing regarding head.

Posted by: DaveA at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (DL2i+)

126 Ace - Iowans tuned out in record numbers for the GOP yesterday.. 50% higher turnout than in 2012, which was the previous record turnout.

But.. they didn't turn out for Trump. He underperformed.

I consider it a very healthy sign for the party. We brought out more voters than the Dems - who were way down compared to 2008. As I have been saying, Hillary cannot bring out the same numbers as Obama.. she simply can't.. and we win.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (so+oy)

127 Iowa is an odd state and their voters have unique concerns. The real test for the candidates is coming up with NH, SC and FL I think. States that are much more representative of the general population. Who does well there, who appeals to them will be quite telling.

Posted by: IC at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (a0IVu)

128 Can we just take a moment to appreciate the fact that the aspie nerd won by being an aspie nerd?

===

Granted. Not somebody I'd go so far as to vote for, but granted.

Posted by: Bigby's Coin Flip at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (3ZtZW)

129 Cruz will not win NH. Trump will. A Democratic who pretends to be a Republican works there See Scott Brown.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 03:32 PM (w4NZ

And the Maine Twins. hehe.

Posted by: Mainah at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (659DL)

130
BTW - they ask those conservate/moderate breakdowns a number of different ways, but they all look about the same.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (kdS6q)

131 Carson has books to sell. Give him a break.

Posted by: An Poc ar Buile at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (bpn7O)

132 As far as the X-factor thing, it's hard to figure. It was tremendous turnout, and that sort of thing points to Trump (and Sanders).

That being said, the fraction of the vote in the polls going to Trump+Cruz+Carson did not change vs. the caucus result.

So the high turnout did NOT favor either Trump or anti-establishment, in general. Go figure. Perhaps Trump brought people in, but it's just that they didn't necessarily vote for HIM.

What DID happen is that Trump lost some support to Cruz and Carson. That could just be because of his comical attempts at trying to show Evangelicals that he's religious, or maybe they just had a change of heart.

Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (/q6+P)

133

All the Rube voters were dead illegal aliens bused in from Chicago...

Posted by: Skankles McFelon at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (qul7b)

134
Would you like the next president to:

Have experience in politics 46%
Rubio 39%
Cruz 35%
Paul 6%

Be from outside the political establishment 48%
Trump 46%
Cruz 20%
Carson 17%

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:37 PM (kdS6q)

135 Dang.

Y'all were just chompin at the bit for this thread.

Posted by: eleven at February 02, 2016 03:38 PM (qUNWi)

136 So the probability of any particular six flip
sequence is 1/64. 2 heads, two tails, two heads, or 1 tail, 3 heads then
2 tails, or alternating heads and tails, so on and so on.

Posted by: Lincolntf at February 02, 2016 03:19 PM (2cS/G)

Given the Pub turnout, it is entirely possible that there was a large contingent of new/disaffected voters but that they split their support between the non-establishment candidates.

Posted by: redbanzai at February 02, 2016 03:38 PM (OrI3J)

137 I don't think Cruz is an Aspie. I think he's just a terribly wonkish, bright guy who apparently has the ability to probably memorize what he hears.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 03:38 PM (w4NZ8)

138 Well it calls into question how many of those there were to be had in Iowa, a state which routinely gets its ass kissed by every politician every four years.

Except that first place went to one of the candidates who did not kiss their corn-fed ass.

Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at February 02, 2016 03:38 PM (2lndx)

139 Just ask Presidents Santorum and Huckabee how much Iowa matters. Jesus, do we never learn a goddamn thing around here?

Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at February 02, 2016 03:38 PM (1RNgT)

140 I predict Cruz will do well in Texas.

Posted by: RioBravo at February 02, 2016 03:38 PM (NUqwG)

141 I have a hard time seeing Iowa as a big loss for Trump. He scored the second largest vote total in history there, he spent next to nothing to get the votes, and he was running on tough ground. Iowa has a big evangelical vote, and he isn't evangelical. Lots of conservatives there, and he's recently a Democrat supporter of Hillary and ObamaCare. Iowans famously like lots of careful attention from candidates and he blew off the final debate.

Given the challenges I think Trump did amazingly well in the vote totals. I know people keep wanting to declare his candidacy over but, objectively (and from a person who doesn't support Trump), where's the evidence?

Nate Silver says "Trump underperformed his polling!", as if that is dispositive, but then in the very next article says "Iowa is famously hard to poll and no pollster was even close this year".

Posted by: MTF at February 02, 2016 03:38 PM (TxJGV)

142 Lets try that again without Lincolntf's ghost post from the last thread:

Given the Pub turnout, it is entirely possible that there was a large
contingent of new/disaffected voters but that they split their support
between the non-establishment candidates.

Posted by: redbanzai at February 02, 2016 03:39 PM (OrI3J)

143 I think he's just a terribly wonkish, bright guy who apparently has the ability to probably memorize what he hears.

----------

Who knows the Constitution and seems to believe it more than any other candidate in recent history and who was willing to shut down the government in an effort to repeal Obamacare.

- I just wanted to add to your thought.

Posted by: SH at February 02, 2016 03:39 PM (gmeXX)

144 'The Shart of the Deal', from Trump Publishing.

Coming to Book Stores in the Fall 2016

Posted by: garrett at February 02, 2016 03:39 PM (bpyiA)

145 It is my fervent hope that Reince Priebus actually does something useful on his way out the door and moves Iowa and NH back in the schedule and lets some other states go first for a change. I've really had it up to my eyeballs with their ego-tripping narcissism.

Posted by: pep at February 02, 2016 03:40 PM (YXmuI)

146 Jesus, do we never learn a goddamn thing around here?

I don't say fuck anymore.

Much.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at February 02, 2016 03:40 PM (659DL)

147 Can we just take a moment to appreciate the fact that the aspie nerd won by being an aspie nerd?

Because I think that's something

It is something.

Posted by: Grey Fox at February 02, 2016 03:40 PM (bZ7mE)

148 Also polls suck.

Posted by: eleven at February 02, 2016 03:40 PM (qUNWi)

149
What do you dip your french fries in?

Ketchup 50%
Catsup 50%
Beef Gravy 0%

That last question might not be quite real.....

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:40 PM (kdS6q)

150 Ted Cruz has Asperger's? Is that a fact or are you guys just guessing because he has a nerdy vibe? I doubt that is true - speaking as a parent.

Posted by: IC at February 02, 2016 03:40 PM (a0IVu)

151 The movement is real.

so was the Tea Party

Cruz and Rubio, are where they are because of it

"the tea party is dead!" said just about everyone from the left (and right establishment)

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:41 PM (qCMvj)

152 Some how I think this whole thing is going to end like the "Wizard of Oz". Someone is going to throw a bucket of water on Trump, and he will be standing there....like a photo-shop I've seen of him in a pool, with the whole comb-over hanging to one side.

Posted by: Paladin at February 02, 2016 03:41 PM (hxLER)

153 So the probability of any particular six flip sequence is 1/64. 2 heads, two tails, two heads, or 1 tail, 3 heads then
2 tails, or alternating heads and tails, so on and so on.

If it came up 6 heads reliably, you'd never hear "best 2 out of 3?"

Posted by: rickb223 at February 02, 2016 03:41 PM (jqZ8a)

154 >>It is my fervent hope that Reince Priebus actually does something useful on his way out the door and moves Iowa and NH back in the schedule and lets some other states go first for a change. I've really had it up to my eyeballs with their ego-tripping narcissism.

I don't want to be near any state that goes first. I can't imaging being assaulted 7x24 for months by these campaigns.

Posted by: JackStraw at February 02, 2016 03:41 PM (/tuJf)

155 I have a hard time seeing Iowa as a big loss for Trump.

--------

I don't see it as a big loss either. But I have long thought that he would not win the nomination because he would never win a majority of the delegates. Iowa gave me no reason to rethink that.

I suspect both Cruz and Rubio like where they sit. Trump is probably disappointed that he didn't win, but I don't think the result really hurt him in any way.

Posted by: SH at February 02, 2016 03:41 PM (gmeXX)

156 Calling people Aspie is teh new thing.

Posted by: eleven at February 02, 2016 03:42 PM (qUNWi)

157 So Caddell's theory is that NH voters are self-important douches being contrarian to one-up Iowa?

Posted by: logprof at February 02, 2016 03:42 PM (vsbNu)

158
Personally, I hope it comes down to a coin flip.
.........................

The problem is not who controls the election, but who provides the coin.

Posted by: wth at February 02, 2016 03:42 PM (HgMAr)

159 "the tea party is dead!" said just about everyone from the left (and right establishment)

-----
Well.... not dead dead. Noooooobody got killed.

We just..... muffled ..... them.

Posted by: Lois Lerner at February 02, 2016 03:42 PM (8XRCm)

160 "I don't think Cruz is an Aspie. I think he's just a terribly wonkish, bright guy who apparently has the ability to probably memorize what he hears."

Have you seen his Princess Bride bit?

Total recall, with exact inflection.

I saw that and was like "yep. He's on the spectrum."

Plus there's the whole "he's not likable blah blah blah" thing.

As someone who has an autistic son and is married to someone who definitely has aspie tendencies, I see this as a good thing though.

Posted by: Lauren at February 02, 2016 03:42 PM (f3Iw2)

161 "Trump wasn't favored in Iowa until recently. The movement is real. He's 1 delegate behind, get a grip."

Ace, Ace, Ace.

*shakes head*

Flipping out is something we're really good at. Why, if it weren't for flipping out, jumping to conclusions, flying off the handle and quaking with anxiety few here would get any exercise at all.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - ReFit your Conniptions at the Outrage Outlet! at February 02, 2016 03:42 PM (hLRSq)

162 We really shouldn't overthink last night's results. Cruz ran a good campaign and had the best ground game. Trump came in second but "underperformed" according to some so-called experts. It couldn't be that the polls were wrong so it must be Trump's fault.

The people who usually vote for religious conservatives voted for Cruz. The people who usually vote for GOPe candidates voted for Rubio. Everybody hates Jeb.

Posted by: Flaccid Member at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (5fSr7)

163 Calling people Aspie is teh new thing.
Posted by: eleven at February 02, 2016 03:42 PM (qUNWi)

Calling people Aspie is teh new thing.
Posted by: eleven at February 02, 2016 03:42 PM (qUNWi)

"aspie" it is the new "mensch"

Posted by: yankeefifth at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (vb33c)

164 I do think it's a huge point that Cruz went to Iowa and said, you know what, no more ethanol subsidies for you and he *won*.

That's one of those third rails that he grabbed and it didn't kill him.

Good.

Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (mf5HN)

165 What do you dip your french fries in?

Ketchup 50%
Catsup 50%
Beef Gravy 0%

Wot's all this, then? Everyone knows chips are best with mayonnaise.

Posted by: The Brits at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (YXmuI)

166 158
Personally, I hope it comes down to a coin flip.
.........................

The problem is not who controls the election, but who provides the coin.
Posted by: wth at February 02, 2016 03:42 PM (HgMAr)

We're getting tired of this coin toss talk.

Posted by: NFL refs at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (vsbNu)

167 Why are we still paying attention to Ben Carson? Great surgeon, nice guy---but not. a. chance.

Posted by: JoeF. at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (dVwzN)

168 Calling people Aspie is teh new thing.

Lauren has an autistic son, IIRC. Calling Cruz "Aspie" isn't an insult.

Posted by: Grey Fox at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (bZ7mE)

169 Cruz has to win NH and MUST win SC before anyone actually takes him seriously.
---
It seems some folks in Iowa already took him seriously. I don't know that he needs NH (that seems more like intentionally setting an impossible bar), another win or strong second (relative to third) in SC is probably enough for him to keep going.

Posted by: Methos, AoS commenter since 2006, apparently also non-voting democrat at February 02, 2016 03:44 PM (ZbV+0)

170 The fact that Marco Rubio can say one thing in English and something quite the opposite in Spanish makes him a very cunning linguist. That always has appeal to women voters.

Posted by: Disengenious Democrat Crossover Voter at February 02, 2016 03:44 PM (fbovC)

171
What do you dip your french fries in?

Ketchup 50%
Catsup 50%
Beef Gravy 0%
....................

Salsa

Posted by: Rubio's ears at February 02, 2016 03:44 PM (HgMAr)

172
Would this be Pat Fucking Caddell?

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at February 02, 2016 03:44 PM (j4wsR)

173 Wot's all this, then? Everyone knows chips are best with mayonnaise.
Posted by: The Brits at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (YXmuI)

That's the Belgians. And for that, they richly deserved to be invaded repeatedly.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at February 02, 2016 03:44 PM (659DL)

174 I do think it's a huge point that Cruz went to Iowa and said, you know what, no more ethanol subsidies for you and he *won*.

That's one of those third rails that he grabbed and it didn't kill him.

Good.

---------

Do you think people didn't grab it because they thought it was a third rail that could shock them. Or just that they never saw a need to grab it?

Posted by: SH at February 02, 2016 03:44 PM (gmeXX)

175 I don't agree with our gracious hostess Ace (that's how they talk about Lucianne at HER blog) about electability.

If the head-to-head GE matchups are impossible for one potential nominee (Trump) & possible for all the others, then damn it, Bevis, that's a factor!

Posted by: mnw (rare and flounced) at February 02, 2016 03:44 PM (GXwGP)

176 *invests in SPF 15,000 futures*

That's roofing tar. It's probably not good for your skin.

Posted by: DaveA at February 02, 2016 03:45 PM (DL2i+)

177 Personally I think the big stories coming out of Iowa are:

1. Hillary blew a 50 point polling lead in the state and had to cheat her way to declaring a "victory!" tie.
2. The "outsider" candidates (Cruz, Trump and Carson) scored over 60% of the vote. Boom!
3. Rube-e-o did better than I hoped he would, in that he got half of the vote that went to the GOPe candidates.

Posted by: MTF at February 02, 2016 03:45 PM (TxJGV)

178 What do you dip your french fries in?

Ketchup 50%
Catsup 50%
Beef Gravy 0%

Wot's all this, then? Everyone knows chips are best with mayonnaise.
Posted by: The Brits at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (YXmuI)

No, poutine.

Posted by: Quebecker Frogs at February 02, 2016 03:45 PM (vsbNu)

179
And summarizing from the poll, Rubio voters were late deciders, just in the last couple of days, and big city types.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:45 PM (kdS6q)

180 Can we just take a moment to appreciate the fact that the aspie nerd won by being an aspie nerd?

I really have no patience for this "aspie" shit. I don't know when people started to think that this was some sort of badge of intelligence ... but it isn't. This is probably just more of the demented fallout from Rain Man ... after which the term "Idiot Savant" disappeared and was replaced with "Autistic Savant" and people actually started being proud to claim some measure of autism. That is some fucked-up shit.

Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at February 02, 2016 03:45 PM (zc3Db)

181 Lauren has an autistic son, IIRC. Calling Cruz "Aspie" isn't an insult.

Posted by: Grey Fox at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (bZ7mE)

There is a huge difference between Asperger's and Autism. They are both on the spectrum and it's called a spectrum for a reason.

Posted by: IC at February 02, 2016 03:45 PM (a0IVu)

182 Love how second place is a loss.

Fucking hysterical.
Posted by: Bigby's Coin Flip at February 02, 2016 03:20 PM (3ZtZW)

So, why don't we simply have the good people of Iowa and NH choose our presidential candidates. Then, in about a month, they can return to their precincts and once again. sit with their styrofoam coffee cup, listen to the gong show of candidate's representatives, and then write down their favorites name and put it in the laundry bag.

And we can all say how brilliant and wonderful they are. And we can make plans to attend the inauguration in Iowa City or Portsmouth, they can alternate every four years.

Posted by: Jen the original at February 02, 2016 03:45 PM (TKQrK)

183 A senior enlisted SEAL will be the first sailor in a decade to receive the Medal of Honor, for a mission to rescue an American civilian hostage in Afghanistan in 2012, according to a Tuesday release from the White House.

Byers actions were so clearly beyond expectation, even for a Navy SEAL, that the Navy had no hesitation in nominating him for the Medal of Honor, according to a defense official familiar with his case, but not authorized to speak publicly about it, told USA Today.

The ceremony was delayed in part by Byers recent deployment, according to a senior Defense official who was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

Byers, 36, is a native of Toledo, Ohio. He joined the Navy in Sept. 1998 and served as a hospital corpsman before attending Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL training in 2002.

His awards and decorations include five Bronze Stars with combat V device, two Purple Hearts, a Joint Service Commendation with V, three Navy and Marine Corps Commendation Medals one with V and two Combat Action Ribbons.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at February 02, 2016 03:45 PM (kzdjp)

184 Everybody hates Jeb.

Well..not everybody!

HA, who am I kidding here. He's a putz!

Posted by: Barbara Bush at February 02, 2016 03:46 PM (hxLER)

185 162 Everybody hates Jeb.

Posted by: Flaccid Member at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (5fSr7)

And that, ladies and gentlefappers, is the only reliable lesson from Iowa.

Posted by: rebel flounder at February 02, 2016 03:46 PM (3dOE/)

186 New Hampshire also enjoys brunch on Sundays, long walks in the park, and being anthropomorphized by political commentators.

Posted by: New Hampshire at February 02, 2016 03:46 PM (FohCt)

187 What do you dip your french fries in?

Ketchup 50%
Catsup 50%
Beef Gravy 0%
-----
Malt Vinegar (OH, MD, and Canadian transfers)
Chili Salsa (Natural Conservatives)

Posted by: RioBravo at February 02, 2016 03:46 PM (NUqwG)

188 >>That's the Belgians. And for that, they richly deserved to be invaded repeatedly.

And the Dutch. And there are a whole host of reasons to kick their ass.

Posted by: JackStraw at February 02, 2016 03:46 PM (/tuJf)

189 Can we just take a moment to appreciate the fact that the aspie nerd won by being an aspie nerd?

Because I think that's something

It is something.

Posted by: Grey Fox at February 02, 2016 03:40 PM (bZ7mE)

Just cause the sellouts on Congress don't like him doesn't mean he's autistic. It is, believe it or not, a GOOD thing when Quislings and socialists hate someone because they are a threat to their cozy arrangements. It is also a stand up and shout hurrah! thing when that same someone calls a liar a liar to his face ("congeniality" be damned).

Posted by: redbanzai at February 02, 2016 03:46 PM (OrI3J)

190 I do think it's a huge point that Cruz went to Iowa and said, you know what, no more ethanol subsidies for you and he *won*.

That's one of those third rails that he grabbed and it didn't kill him.

Good.
Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD

I was told there would be no content in this thread.

Oh. Yes, yes, that's quite a good development.

Posted by: Bandersnatch, Opus/Bill the Cat 2016 at February 02, 2016 03:46 PM (1xUj/)

191 Interesting in that the new caucus goers (per the exit poll) were Trump supporters.

I'm not really following the blog today, because I figured the name calling and gloating by the Cruz supporters would be annoying. But let me remind you, if your guy wins, you will need all the votes you can get. And if I have to read daily about what an idiot Trump supporters are, I am not going to be voting for anyone. And I won't be reading this blog by election time. Why I should be excited about a first term senator, Harvard educated lawyer winning is beyond me. And you can label him whatever you want, but I think you will find that Ted Cruz is just as capable at backstabbing his supporters as anyone in the GOPe.

Posted by: notsothoreau at February 02, 2016 03:47 PM (5HBd1)

192 Everybody hates Jeb.

Well..not everybody!

HA, who am I kidding here. He's a putz!
Posted by: Barbara Bush

Cold Babs. Cold.

Posted by: rickb223 at February 02, 2016 03:47 PM (jqZ8a)

193 "Calling people Aspie is teh new thing."

Nope. Like I said, I'm surrounded by autistic people all day long. I know it when I see it. It's not as stereotypical as people imagine. But Cruz's eidetic memory is a dead give away.

But like I said, I don't think it's a bad thing. A touch of autism is like a superpower. The downside is you get Trump saying people don't like you (which may very well be true), but who cares?

Posted by: Lauren at February 02, 2016 03:47 PM (f3Iw2)

194 Iowans all read AoS a few days back telling them to vote Cruz even if they like Trump?

GOTV is more important in Iowa and Cruz invested heavily in that, and in praising Jesus. Cruz got the big share of evangelicals, I thought I saw numbers on that, him doing much better than the total results with evangelicals.

Why not subtract the evangelical wing from Cruz, and subtract the GOTV 7%? Those were just about money and Jesus schtick that won't carry over much the rest of the way. But he did shoot himself out of the Iowa cannon, and now needs to find his wings to South Carolina.

Between the no show on the debate and FOX doing the Full Rubio, the Trump zeal was tamped down. Now Trump must win NH and SC pretty much, or at least close in SC and win Florida? All conjecture ... Trump hasn't spent much yet.

Posted by: Illiniwek at February 02, 2016 03:47 PM (5Gpe2)

195 I'm sorry but I find all these theories and arguments and rationales of primaries and voters silly. HA was filled with links to them the past few days and continues.

Posted by: Bruce With a Wang! at February 02, 2016 03:47 PM (iQIUe)

196 Zed factor.

Posted by: Bertram Cabot Jr. at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (FkBIv)

197 This is Iowa. I don't believe there's a yuge contingency of "aw shucks" new voters to be found there in the first place.

Posted by: Fritz at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (UzPAd)

198 "That's the Belgians. And for that, they richly deserved to be invaded repeatedly."

Actually, it's the Walloons you mean to reference.

Posted by: The Flemish at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (ml1PM)

199
183 I need to hear more about that link or something?

Posted by: simplemind at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (JTwsP)

200 Trump got second with an inferior ground game. Perhaps the worst of the top three

Does he have time to fix that. Lack of ground game has killed republicans in the last couple presidential Elections

Posted by: ThunderB at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (zOTsN)

201
Cruz, Rubio and Carson score 60% of the votes.....

From the People of the Racist Party.

Posted by: fixerupper at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (8XRCm)

202 I agree with your critique of the issues Rubio will face if he's nominated, both from the left and right, and certain people overlooking them. But the voters you're referring to here is why I think Cruz's theory of the general electorate is wrong. To the extent Romney lost because of depressed white turnout in certain areas, their alienation from the GOP is not necessarily that it's not ideologically pure enough.

Posted by: Cliff at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (Pu91F)

203
What do you dip your french fries in?

Ketchup 50%
Catsup 50%
Beef Gravy 0%

Wot's all this, then? Everyone knows chips are best with mayonnaise.
Posted by: The Brits

Hello hello hello. Don't you mean a cup of yummy vinegar and salt douche?
Posted by: The Other Brits

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (kdS6q)

204 I'm not really following the blog today, because I figured the name calling and gloating by the Cruz supporters would be annoying.

It's not been bad.

Posted by: rickb223 at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (jqZ8a)

205 Abortions for some, miniature American flags for others.

Posted by: Kang at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (bpn7O)

206 Would this be Pat Fucking Caddell?
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at February 02, 2016 03:44 PM (j4wsR)

Yes, the pirate in search of his long lost ship. Jack Sparrow's evil brother.

Posted by: Jen the original at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (TKQrK)

207 Just cause the sellouts on Congress don't like him doesn't mean he's autistic.

This made me laugh. I don't know why and it's not meant disparagingly. I agree with your post.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 03:49 PM (w4NZ8)

208 Do you think people didn't grab it because they thought it was a third rail that could shock them. Or just that they never saw a need to grab it?

-------------

Trump pandered to it.

Posted by: Soona at February 02, 2016 03:49 PM (Fmupd)

209 I think the Trump lead in NH is not as big as the polls say. Both Iowa and NH call for a more personal campaign and ground game. Trump didn't have it in Iowa and doesn't have it in NH. Rallies just don't get it done on those states. Also I think NH voters just like to be contrarian. This is what may give Trump the edge.

Posted by: Max Rockatansky at February 02, 2016 03:49 PM (5FQVt)

210 @123 "Trump does have a lot of selling himself to do.

I have heard from friends who always vote, would never consider voting Demcorat, who hate Hillary, that they will sit this out if Trump wins. ..."

He HAS managed to get his negatives to drop with REPUBLICANS, but not ALL of them obviously. I notice about such people that they just spout venom about Trump, but never really say why. What irks me is that I suspect a lot of it is the media propaganda. I also wonder how much politically-correct brainwashing we're fighting here.

This is not just a simple matter of "I don't like his platform", it is an intense personal dislike. Some come right out and say that he's secretly a Democrat or something, as if any of TODAY'S Democrats can think a thought outside of class warfare and identity politics. Here, we Trump BRAGGING about being rich, and pissing in the face of Political Correctness (when other R's WON'T), and HE's the Democrat? And it's as though those OTHER guys don't suddenly change their "TRUE feelings" on stuff when it works to their advantage!

Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 03:49 PM (/q6+P)

211
So.... Count Chocula is on the spectrum. Who knew.

Posted by: fixerupper at February 02, 2016 03:50 PM (8XRCm)

212 There is a huge difference between Asperger's and Autism. They are both on the spectrum and it's called a spectrum for a reason.

Apserger's Syndrome no longer exists. It is considered just part of the autism spectrum.

Autism is, as far as I can make out, a really vague diagnosis and one that doesn't seem to have much meaning these days.

Posted by: Grey Fox at February 02, 2016 03:50 PM (bZ7mE)

213

10 New Hampshire Stereotypes That Are Completely Accurate

Ah, yup. If you're so independent you'd rather die than share your pie recipe and you have no idea how to give directions, you're probably from New Hampshire.

http://www.movoto.com/guide/nh/new-hampshire-stereotypes/

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:50 PM (qCMvj)

214 Do you think people didn't grab it because they thought it was a third rail that could shock them. Or just that they never saw a need to grab it?

-------------

Trump pandered to it.

---------

No - he offered it up as part of a bargain.

Posted by: SH at February 02, 2016 03:50 PM (gmeXX)

215 207 Just cause the sellouts on Congress don't like him doesn't mean he's autistic.

This made me laugh. I don't know why and it's not meant disparagingly. I agree with your post.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 03:49 PM (w4NZ

Rather insulting really. The implication is that autistic people are not likable? Really? As a parent to an autistic daughter, this stereotyping sickens me because I have to see it all to often in real life. Enough. I am out of here.

Posted by: IC at February 02, 2016 03:50 PM (a0IVu)

216
so was the Tea Party

Cruz and Rubio, are where they are because of it

"the tea party is dead!" said just about everyone from the left (and right establishment)

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:41 PM (qCMvj)

I think the Iowa Poll actually showed the split of the TEA party folks...

Those who think a Politician can fix Washington went for Cruz...

Those, like myself, who don't think ANYONE from inside Washington can fix it, went for Trump.

It will be interesting to see how the 'split' plays out.

Posted by: Don Quixote at February 02, 2016 03:50 PM (f7rv6)

217 I do think it's a huge point that Cruz went to Iowa and said, you know what, no more ethanol subsidies for you and he *won*.

That's one of those third rails that he grabbed and it didn't kill him.

Good.

Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (mf5HN)

Ted Cruz is....
THE MAN WHO CAN'T BE KILLED!!!!!!

Posted by: Tex Lovera at February 02, 2016 03:51 PM (wtvvX)

218 Cruz, Rubio and Carson score 60% of the votes.....

From the People of the Racist Party.

Posted by: fixerupper at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (8XRCm)What percent of the Sexist Party voted for womyn candidates? It's 2016.

Posted by: MSM at February 02, 2016 03:51 PM (FohCt)

219 I understand that both the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots are holding victory parades on Monday.

Posted by: buzzion at February 02, 2016 03:51 PM (z/Ubi)

220 Exactly. Moderate secular voters did not flock to Trump and register as R's. Some did, but as ACE says, they were mostly known voters.
There may be a Trump corollary, that Trump's negatives drive turnout against him as well. But NH Indys will be a test of that.

Posted by: standfast24 at February 02, 2016 03:51 PM (uPiL/)

221 I do think it's a huge point that Cruz went to Iowa and said, you know what, no more ethanol subsidies for you and he *won*.

That's one of those third rails that he grabbed and it didn't kill him.

Good.
Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (mf5HN)
--------
Or it may mean that it is only a marginally more important concern in Iowa than in the rest of the country either way.

Posted by: RioBravo at February 02, 2016 03:51 PM (NUqwG)

222 So.... Count Chocula is on the spectrum. Who knew.

I don't know about Count Chocula, but Count von Count (from Sesame Street) probably is.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 03:51 PM (w4NZ8)

223 "
Just cause the sellouts on Congress don't like him doesn't mean he's autistic."

Nah, but he has tells. You can see it in his debate style. It also comes up when people complain about him being "insincere" sounding. It's not that he's insincere, it's just hard for him to emote naturally. But if you get him on something that he's not having to script, you see a much more real side of him.

But it probably does cause him issues making friends with colleagues. That's a good thing though. Keeps him from getting excited about being invited to their stupid parties.

Posted by: Lauren at February 02, 2016 03:51 PM (f3Iw2)

224 "It is, believe it or not, a GOOD thing when Quislings and socialists hate someone because they are a threat to their cozy arrangements."

Not sure to whom you are referring, but I would never attend a dinner party if Ted Cruz was there.

Posted by: David Brooks at February 02, 2016 03:52 PM (OD2ni)

225 At the end of the day, there are people who actually vote and people who like answering polls at Drudge. Cruz tends to draw the former, Trump, the latter.

What I'm most curious about is where the support and money goes after the players start to drop out. Do they coalesce behind Trump, Rubio or Cruz? All have big negatives, but I think Cruz has the least offensive warts.

In my opinion, the guy that drives, Mitch, McAmensty and Bob Dole to fits of rage is a good choice.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at February 02, 2016 03:52 PM (2PHKP)

226 O/T - For those who have trouble reading AoS on FireFox/PaleMoon because of ads/background script - the Brave browser manages to block all that crap by default.

There's a Developer Beta available right now that installs easily. It's very barebones feature wise, but it does the job of loading AoS quickly for maximum commentage.

Link in nic.

Posted by: ReactionaryMonster browsing Bravely at February 02, 2016 03:52 PM (uURQL)

227 I work night shift, and I hope my thanks to the AOSHQDD for posting stuff all around the clock for the blog and it's dehydrated hoard is not missed. I'm sure that we haven't thanked you enough in the past, so thank you very much NOW!

Posted by: MoJoTee at February 02, 2016 03:52 PM (aR8Ih)

228 155 But I have long thought that he would not win the nomination because he would never win a majority of the delegates. Iowa gave me no reason to rethink that.
--------------------------------------------------

This is thinking I don't understand. Trump led in Iowa only by a thin margin in the final poll. Cruz led before that, and he spent a fortune on county-by-county organization when Trump didn't.

In what other state has Trump not been leading by big margins and for awhile. Where will he lose?

I see it diametrically opposed to you, in that I am glad to see Cruz having won in Iowa because I don't see where else he wins. Happily there are plenty of proportional delegate states, so he will win delegates, but it seems to me you have to hope Trump's balloon gets popped a little by the second place finish, and he follows it up with a disappointing performance in NH, in order to still have hope he isn't the nominee.

Posted by: MTF at February 02, 2016 03:52 PM (TxJGV)

229 What if establishment Republicans didn't have enough votes to give Marco Rubio a win, so they all voted for one of the two favorites of non-establishment Republicans, to get the other one out of the way?
Then when Ted and Marco eventually go head to head, Marco suddenly gains while Ted loses. Why not?
Does anyone think the Republicans were going away quietly?

Posted by: Boron at February 02, 2016 03:52 PM (q6DIv)

230 Going FOR ethanol is the third rail for conservatives ... just try it here or at National Review, or any number of "conservative" sites. Cruz was just establishing his conservative cred. He even set up that "angry farmer" interview. (seems like a clear set up to me, but it was still informative)

Posted by: Illiniwek at February 02, 2016 03:52 PM (5Gpe2)

231 Autism is, as far as I can make out, a really vague diagnosis and one that doesn't seem to have much meaning these days.

True. I suspect a lot of "diagnoses" are "this doesn't fit my preconceptions so Autism", which is likely the real reason the apparent rates have shot up (c.f. "treating boys like defective girls").

FULL DISCLOSURE: Known half-brother who is autistic, and long suspicion I'm on the spectrum myself.

Posted by: Brother Cavil, Restorationist at February 02, 2016 03:52 PM (9krrF)

232 "222 So.... Count Chocula is on the spectrum. Who knew."

Maybe its me, but I think Cruz looks more like Frankenberry.

Posted by: Benji Carver at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (OD2ni)

233 First time, 6+ month politician enters the fray in second place? Seems pretty good to me even without considering the number of guns aimed at him for all of those months.

I'll stick with Trump unless he quits, then with Cruz with less fervor until he quits. If it's Rubio et al. then SMOD it is.

My Trump campaign sign goes up in two days.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (1CroS)

234

OT

Yahoo Expected to Say It Is Exploring 'Strategic Alternatives' for Its Web Business

Yahoo plans to announce it is exploring "strategic alternatives" for its struggling Internet business, people familiar with the matter said.

The announcement, expected to come with the fourth-quarter earnings report after the market's close, would be the strongest indication that Yahoo's board is considering a sale of all or part of its Web properties.

Executives at Verizon Communications have publicly expressed interest in buying Yahoo, and others, including private-equity firm TPG Capital, have considered bidding for parts or all of the Web business, according to people familiar with the matter.

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (qCMvj)

235 I think Cadell's idea of a mass conciousness of voters making gestalt decisions is wrong.

I think it's as simple as Trump led with number of polled voters, Cruz just beat on organization.

Posted by: Pappy O'Daniel at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (oVJmc)

236 So Ace is saying a Trump supporter in Iowa deliberately used his or her only primary vote to to vote for Cruz or Rubio or whomever else sohis or her truly preferred candidate Trump would lose and the process would draw out longer? And this same decision-making process was repeated hundreds of times--or at least often enough to take the victory from Trump?

No way. The odds of that happening are like flipping a coin 6 times and...oh, wait.

Posted by: troyriser at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (UWlp+)

237
This is Ace:

https://goo.gl/aaZRlP

No, he's not tired or sleepy. He just likes the feeling of wood on his balls.

Posted by: Bruce With a Wang! at February 02, 2016 03:54 PM (iQIUe)

238
Autism is, as far as I can make out, a really vague diagnosis and one that doesn't seem to have much meaning these days.
Unless you have it. Or someone you have to deal with has it.
Then its pretty meaningful. Like, it will change you life in ways you can't imagine.
So not sure how old you are grey. You may have had your kids already, but if they have kids, you may get to know someone who has it. It'll be fine, even so.

Posted by: simplemind at February 02, 2016 03:54 PM (JTwsP)

239 " Enough. I am out of here."

I don't mean it in an offensive way in the least. Like I said, I see autism as something that has very positive traits as well as negatives. In a politician who's out to disrupt the cocktail party cartel, it's almost entirely positive.

Posted by: Lauren at February 02, 2016 03:54 PM (f3Iw2)

240 5 minutes to Wapner. 5 minutes to Wapner.

Posted by: Ted Cruz at February 02, 2016 03:54 PM (OD2ni)

241 The Big Loss For Donald Trump

Yeah, Big Loss. 2 delegates less than Cruz.

FFS, this Iowa shit is so overblown.

For the record, I'm fine with Cruz or Trump but I cannot stand for Rubio as the nominee.

Posted by: WhatWhatWhat? at February 02, 2016 03:54 PM (r9tFS)

242 Remember folks. The New York Times endorsed...me! That's right...me! The mailman's son from...awwww, damn. I pissed myself again!

Posted by: John Kasich at February 02, 2016 03:54 PM (YFFpo)

243 234

OT

Yahoo Expected to Say It Is Exploring 'Strategic Alternatives' for Its Web Business

Yahoo plans to announce it is exploring "strategic alternatives" for its struggling Internet business, people familiar with the matter said.

The announcement, expected to come with the fourth-quarter earnings report after the market's close, would be the strongest indication that Yahoo's board is considering a sale of all or part of its Web properties.

Executives at Verizon Communications have publicly expressed interest in buying Yahoo, and others, including private-equity firm TPG Capital, have considered bidding for parts or all of the Web business, according to people familiar with the matter.
Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (qCMvj)

Is yahoo going to just have every "news article" be sponsored content now instead of every other one?

Posted by: buzzion at February 02, 2016 03:55 PM (z/Ubi)

244 "But in the first big test of one of the most important justifications for his candidacy, he failed to deliver these long-sought-after Missing Voters."

Yeah, I've got to agree with Ace.

The record republican turnout was evidenced more in the crowds that packed the Velvet Room at the Holiday for Rubio and the Junior High gymnasiums that Cruz overflowed.

Trumps' crowds were probably just curiosity seekers and most likely stayed home during the caucuses.

Posted by: jwest at February 02, 2016 03:55 PM (Zs4uk)

245 180,000 voters and he loses by 4,200 votes and by one delegate...and Trump is the biggest loserz, evahs!

Ayeah. Right. OK, if you say so.

Let's see what happens in New Hampshire before we call the race, shall we?

Posted by: The Hot Gates at February 02, 2016 03:55 PM (KJZeR)

246 I think this attributes to much collective awareness to be a viable strategy. You'd have to have some sort of tacit agreement among a lot of different groups of voters, and I don't see that as either likely or even possible. You'd have to believe in a literal hivemind like the Borg for this to occur.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at February 02, 2016 03:55 PM (4ErVI)

247
Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding whom to support today?

Can win in November 21%
Rubio 44%
Trump 24%
Cruz 22%

Shares my values 42%
Cruz 38%
Rubio 21%
Carson 15%

Tells it like it is 14%
Trump 66%
Cruz 11%
Carson 6%

Can bring needed change 21%
Trump 33%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 17%

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 03:56 PM (kdS6q)

248
Wot's all this, then? Everyone knows chips are best with mayonnaise.
Posted by: The Brits

Hello hello hello. Don't you mean a cup of yummy vinegar and salt douche?
Posted by: The Other Brits
....................

Bollocks mates, bloody tartar sauce is brilliant.

Posted by: another Limey at February 02, 2016 03:56 PM (HgMAr)

249

another OT, sorry

this is kinda big (and Rush mentioned it too)

McConnell wary of divisive 2016 fights
thehill

They are neutered. Giving JEF free reign.

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:56 PM (qCMvj)

250 >>>What do you dip your french fries in?

Mayonnaise. I drown them in that shit.

Posted by: Vincent Vega at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (bpn7O)

251 Before people get all bent out of shape, I have an Aspie, Lauren has an Aspie and Fen has an Aspie. It's not an insult to us it's an observation based on some experience

Posted by: ThunderB at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (zOTsN)

252 "He HAS managed to get his negatives to drop with REPUBLICANS, but not ALL of them obviously. I notice about such people that they just spout venom about Trump, but never really say why. What irks me is that I suspect a lot of it is the media propaganda. I also wonder how much politically-correct brainwashing we're fighting here.

This is not just a simple matter of "I don't like his platform", it is an intense personal dislike. Some come right out and say that he's secretly a Democrat or something, as if any of TODAY'S Democrats can think a thought outside of class warfare and identity politics. Here, we Trump BRAGGING about being rich, and pissing in the face of Political Correctness (when other R's WON'T), and HE's the Democrat? And it's as though those OTHER guys don't suddenly change their "TRUE feelings" on stuff when it works to their advantage!
Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 03:49 PM (/q6+P)"

It's his ego. He always talks about himself. And his treatment of women. Attacking Megyn Kelly was a big mistake because it played to a big weakness of his.

And he is really really nasty. The ones who won't vote for him are women. I haven't heard a man say that. But he is a lightweight on abortion, they don't trust it, and he is vile to women, not just in the campaign but going way way back.

Posted by: petunia at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (VoCyE)

253 I do think it's a huge point that Cruz went to Iowa and said, you know what, no more ethanol subsidies for you and he *won*.

That's one of those third rails that he grabbed and it didn't kill him.

Good.
Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (mf5HN)

I wonder if the governor of Iowa, Terry Brandstadt, R. is feeling a little stupid today for his hysterical rant on Fox and Friends Saturday AM in which he literally screamed for his constituents to not vote for Cruz because he will devastate the Iowa economy by shuttering ethanol plants, destroy family farms, etc.

Seems that the populace is tired of it's elected officials CONSTANTLY telling them what to do because they are too stupid to know what is good for them.

Posted by: Jen the original at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (TKQrK)

254 200 Trump got second with an inferior ground game. Perhaps the worst of the top three

Does he have time to fix that. Lack of ground game has killed republicans in the last couple presidential Elections

Posted by: ThunderB at February 02, 2016 03:48 PM (zOTsN)

Apparently he spent very little money in Iowa...

Which is a Straw Poll which gains you no delegates....

Could have been a business decision?... invest money in the places that actually get you delegates?

Just spit ballin.... but it makes sense if a Business Man is making decisions, vice a politician (where everything is perception)..

Posted by: Don Quixote at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (f7rv6)

255 Is anyone else suspicious that the Republicans had such a high turnout?

In Iowa?

Perhaps those weren't Republicans voting in the caucuses. Perhaps those were aliens.

Think about it.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - ReFit your Conniptions at the Outrage Outlet! at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (hLRSq)

256 235 I think Cadell's idea of a mass conciousness of voters making gestalt decisions is wrong.

I think it's as simple as Trump led with number of polled voters, Cruz just beat on organization.
Posted by: Pappy O'Daniel at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (oVJmc)

---------------------

Agree.

Posted by: Soona at February 02, 2016 03:58 PM (Fmupd)

257 Good analysis, Ace (though I agree w/ Cadell's more than yours), but it still doesn't help Rubio the Betrayer.

He can't win Blue or Purple states, cuz he believes in an abortion ban w/ no exception for rape; and thinks the Iraqi War was just great, and wants to go into Syria and Yemen; and wants to privatize Medicare.

I can respect people who agree w/ Rubio on those things, but the voters he's looking for in Blue and Purple states won't. And we haven't even gotten to how he loves ObamaTrade and amnesty.

Caucus states lean Cruz. Red states? Trump and Cruz get first choice at the meat.

Did Trump "fail" to deliver voters? In a caucus state? In Iowa?

No, the Establishment did.

Posted by: trickamsterdam at February 02, 2016 03:58 PM (3BCux)

258 I never see the name as "Reince Priebus". I always see "Prince Rabies."

Posted by: An Poc ar Buile at February 02, 2016 03:58 PM (bpn7O)

259 This is Ace:

https://goo.gl/aaZRlP

Where did they find a dog made out of cat bones?

Posted by: Bandersnatch, Opus/Bill the Cat 2016 at February 02, 2016 03:58 PM (1xUj/)

260 10 Love how second place is a loss.

Fucking hysterical.

Gateway Pubit blog had a clip of Andrea Tanterro talking to Rich Lowry who was gloating about the caucus results. She said (paraphrased) that was Rich saying second place is a loss, first place is not really a win, but THIRD place is amazing.
That is exactly how I have been thinking about the caucus all day, so I felt better that another person also felt this way.

Posted by: Chillin the most at February 02, 2016 03:59 PM (BI43k)

261 Will it get you bent out of shape if I tell you that it sounds like you are referencing the type of dog you own.

Posted by: Max Rockatansky at February 02, 2016 03:59 PM (5FQVt)

262 And if I have to read daily about what an idiot Trump supporters are, I am not going to be voting for anyone. And I won't be reading this blog by election time.

You sound like a fucking genius. Totally bucking the stereotype.

Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at February 02, 2016 03:59 PM (1RNgT)

263 Rather insulting really. The implication is that autistic people are not likable? Really? As a parent to an autistic daughter, this stereotyping sickens me because I have to see it all to often in real life. Enough. I am out of here.
Posted by: IC at February 02, 2016 03:50 PM (a0IVu)

If you are easily offended, may I suggest not hanging out with a bunch of Morons drunk on Val-U-Rite?

It's a bit like walking into a brothel and being shocked, SHOCKED! that there are women of ill-repute in there ....

Posted by: ReactionaryMonster browsing Bravely at February 02, 2016 03:59 PM (uURQL)

264 I've spent some time in New York, so I can probably guess the reason for Trump's poor performance.

You see, he had a large group of new voters ready to come to the caucuses, but he scared them off with Sarah Palin's appearance.

If you don't believe me, ask experts like Steve Schmidt and Nichole Wallace.

Posted by: jwest at February 02, 2016 03:59 PM (Zs4uk)

265 I'm thinking he motivated a lot of new voters to come out and vote against him.

Posted by: Immolate at February 02, 2016 04:00 PM (iO98h)

266
That's one of those third rails that he grabbed and it didn't kill him.

Good.
Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD at February 02, 2016 03:43 PM (mf5HN)

I wonder if the governor of Iowa, Terry Brandstadt, R. is feeling a little stupid today for his hysterical rant on Fox and Friends Saturday AM in which he literally screamed for his constituents to not vote for Cruz because he will devastate the Iowa economy by shuttering ethanol plants, destroy family farms, etc.

Seems that the populace is tired of it's elected officials CONSTANTLY telling them what to do because they are too stupid to know what is good for them.

Posted by: Jen the original at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (TKQrK)

Cudos to Sen. Cruz for shifting the Overton window on that Issue!

Posted by: Don Quixote at February 02, 2016 04:00 PM (f7rv6)

267
Im from Iowa. Iowa used to be conservative. Keeps shifting further and further left.

Iowa is becoming Minnesota.

Posted by: fixerupper at February 02, 2016 04:00 PM (8XRCm)

268 Iowa's blue in november. -6 EV. Big whoop.

Posted by: ... at February 02, 2016 04:00 PM (fscqy)

269 @174 "I do think it's a huge point that Cruz went to Iowa and said, you know what, no more ethanol subsidies for you and he *won*.

That's one of those third rails that he grabbed and it didn't kill him. ..."

Basically, it sounds like he questioned conventional wisdom and won. Just the sort of thing that Trump has been doing all along. Some were saying there really aren't all that many people in Iowa who benefit, so it was overrated as an issue.

Speaking of Trump, it's aggravating that that Trump is labelled as "pro-ethanol". Anybody who read his quote about that, and read between the lines should get "Maybe I'll try to talk Congress into eliminating it more slowly" from what he actually said, and an Iowa farmer would have to be a fool to interpret what he said as support for ethanol.

Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 04:00 PM (/q6+P)

270 255 Is anyone else suspicious that the Republicans had such a high turnout?

In Iowa?

Perhaps those weren't Republicans voting in the caucuses. Perhaps those were aliens.

Think about it.
Posted by: *Mikey NTH - ReFit your Conniptions at the Outrage Outlet! at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (hLRSq)

And it is winter so their space craft won't leave any crop circles when they land.

Posted by: buzzion at February 02, 2016 04:00 PM (z/Ubi)

271 Posted by: IC at February 02, 2016 03:50 PM (a0IVu)

Don't go. Just let it roll off your back as much as you can as hard as that sometimes might be You'll find all kinds of comments here about people on the spectrum, some from people who don't have relatives on the spectrum. Sometimes it's annoying. And I have a son with high functioning autism. He can be very likable, but he often has trouble talking to people or making small talk and I accept that. He can also be very sweet and endearing. All kinds of personalities of people on the spectrum as I'm sure you know.

I think it's possible to be sort of an introvert and have a great interest in something and know it backwards and forwards without being on the spectrum. If he is , it hasn't affected Cruz in pursuing his goals. The reason I think he might not be on the spectrum is that I have seen videos with him maintaining eye contact with people he doesn't know for long periods of time. This is often a challenge with people on spectrum,

But only Cruz would know-or not -if he hasn't been diagnosed.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 04:01 PM (w4NZ8)

272 artisanal 'ette: "They are neutered. Giving JEF free reign."

When did they not give free reign?

There isn't a fight Team McConnell will not flee. Well, maybe bar tabs with the CoC.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at February 02, 2016 04:01 PM (1CroS)

273 250 >>>What do you dip your french fries in?

Old Bay.

Posted by: Benji Carver at February 02, 2016 04:01 PM (OD2ni)

274 , and he is vile to women, not just in the campaign but going way way back.
Posted by: petunia at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (VoCyE)

Do you have some examples? Sincere question, since all I've known of Trump is that his ex wives speak highly of him and his daughter is a business partner.

Posted by: Jen the original at February 02, 2016 04:01 PM (TKQrK)

275 Rather insulting really. The implication is that
autistic people are not likable? Really? As a parent to an autistic
daughter, this stereotyping sickens me because I have to see it all to
often in real life. Enough. I am out of here.

Posted by: IC at February 02, 2016 03:50 PM (a0IVu)

I actually have found it kinda sad for years that weird (or quirky) little kids aren't just allowed to be weird (or quirky) anymore with out getting a label slapped on them. I think the modern world is just much less accepting of the idea that people can just be themselves without having to fit into a box.

I swear I think if "to Kill a Mockingbird" were written today, Scout would have to be a transgender "boy" on hormone treatments to stop "his" adolescence.

Posted by: redbanzai at February 02, 2016 04:01 PM (OrI3J)

276 First time, 6+ month politician enters the fray in second place? Seems pretty good to me even without considering the number of guns aimed at him for all of those months.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (1CroS)

Trump has been a public figure for 30 years, a reality TV star for 10 of those years.

It's been estimated that it costs any given national-level politician $1 billion to establish name recognition with the general public. Trump never had to spend that money. As a plus for him, he also gets more free media play than any other candidate.

So yeah: no excuses, please.

Posted by: troyriser at February 02, 2016 04:01 PM (UWlp+)

277 234

Yahoo Expected to Say It Is Exploring 'Strategic Alternatives' for Its Web Business

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (qCMvj)

I hear Politico has a good model going. Oh wait.

Oh how about something like The New Republic? Er, nevermind.

Just shut it down already. The web has enough leftist crap on it already without continuing to sink money into it.

Maybe they can become the Google of the darknet.

Posted by: rebel flounder at February 02, 2016 04:01 PM (3dOE/)

278 Before people get all bent out of shape, I have an Aspie, Lauren has an Aspie and Fen has an Aspie. It's not an insult to us it's an observation based on some experience
Posted by: ThunderB at February 02, 2016 03:57 PM (zOTsN)

Objectification of Aspies! That's rayciss!

*froths at mouth*

Posted by: ReactionaryMonster browsing Bravely at February 02, 2016 04:02 PM (uURQL)

279 Tzatziki sauce.

Posted by: The Greeking Greeks at February 02, 2016 04:02 PM (2lndx)

280 Unless you have it. Or someone you have to deal with has it.
Then its pretty meaningful. Like, it will change you life in ways you can't imagine.
So not sure how old you are grey. You may have had your kids already, but if they have kids, you may get to know someone who has it. It'll be fine, even so.

You mistake my meaning. I mean that there is so much variety within the spectrum that merely saying that someone is autistic doesn't convey much information. I do, in fact, know someone who is supposedly on the spectrum...

This is a subject near and dear to my heart, inasmuch as ThunderB, for one, has suggested that we make a diagnosis of autism grounds for disqualification to own firearms.

Posted by: Grey Fox at February 02, 2016 04:03 PM (bZ7mE)

281
"But in the first big test of one of the most important justifications for his candidacy, he failed to deliver these long-sought-after Missing Voters."

Yeah, I've got to agree with Ace.
Posted by: jwest

When almost half of your caucus voters are first timers, that argues against that. However, while they went for Trump, it was only by single digits over Cruz and Rubio. The voters did seem to be voting mostly on identity issues, because Iowa.

So, Cruz's victory was more like The Huck's and The Sweater Vest's Iowa wins than some may care to admit.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 04:03 PM (kdS6q)

282 >>>And the Dutch. And there are a whole host of reasons to kick their ass.

I've been to Amsterdam. They serve gin in glasses the size of soup bowls. I give them a pass.

Posted by: An Poc ar Buile at February 02, 2016 04:03 PM (bpn7O)

283 #160

Sometimes things look like aspergers... I have generalized anxiety disorder and narcissistic personality disorder... Possibly some manifestation of ADHD. The GAD is stronger now than in childhood but the hyper focusing is often an escape from the anxiety.

I think some of the "aspergers" stuff will get partially rolled out into anxiety and other conditions as we figure out how the things manifest in childhood development. Shrink went through the DSM on aspergers spectrum stuff after thinking I was possibly on it... It was a "no" and clearly "no".

You can be particular and wonkish through other channels. My anxiety means my eye contact isn't well developed.... Stuff like that.

Posted by: Former mass resident at February 02, 2016 04:03 PM (my0dy)

284
Sunday: Trump is just the voice of the few disgruntled voters who are fed up with the System.

Tuesday: Trump fails because he didn't attract Completely New voters to GOP primaries.

Narrative shift, much?

Posted by: Rube the Lube at February 02, 2016 04:03 PM (QW1hJ)

285 And it is winter so their space craft won't leave any crop circles when they land.

Posted by: buzzion at February 02, 2016 04:00 PM (z/Ubi)

You know also?

We can't be seen together. The authorities might decide we're a threat and track us down.

Plus you're dead and, really, you aren't smelling any better as the days go by.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - ReFit your Conniptions at the Outrage Outlet! at February 02, 2016 04:03 PM (hLRSq)

286 No way. The odds of that happening are like flipping a coin 6 times and...oh, wait.
Posted by: troyriser at February 02, 2016 03:53 PM (UWlp+)

Dude it's 1 in 64. 1/64! That's like, once every two months. Once a month if you flip it twice a day.

Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 04:04 PM (xuouz)

287 Ted Cruz is....
THE MAN WHO CAN'T BE KILLED!!!!!!
Posted by: Tex Lovera at February 02, 2016 03:51 PM (wtvvX)

Like we said, Count Chocula.

Posted by: alexthechick - Here SMOD SMOD SMOD at February 02, 2016 04:04 PM (mf5HN)

288 And it is winter so their space craft won't leave any crop circles when they land.
Posted by: buzzion at February 02, 2016 04:00 PM (z/Ubi)

They used their anti-gravity tech to make Hillary win extra delegates.

Lizard Queen has support from the right places.

Posted by: ReactionaryMonster browsing Bravely at February 02, 2016 04:04 PM (uURQL)

289 Well, if I can't bark, can I at least hump your leg?

Posted by: The Donald at February 02, 2016 04:04 PM (xWW96)

290 "I never see the name as 'Reince Priebus'. I always see 'Prince Rabies.'"

Rides Shortbus.

Posted by: torquewrench at February 02, 2016 04:04 PM (noWW6)

291 Look, Trumpkins, your guy would go on and on about how awesome his poll numbers were and disparage others about their weak poll numbers.

Posted by: Harun at February 02, 2016 04:05 PM (UBBWX)

292

I like to like the third rail in winter, so my tongue sticks to it while I fry.

Posted by: I'm not an Aspie, I'm an Idiot! at February 02, 2016 04:05 PM (qul7b)

293
Apparently he spent very little money in Iowa...Which is a Straw Poll which gains you no delegates....Could have been a business decision?... invest money in the places that actually get you delegates? Just spit ballin.... but it makes sense if a Business Man is making decisions, vice a politician (where everything is perception)..
Posted by: Don Quixote

The Iowa Caucus is not the Iowa Straw Poll, which actually didn't happen this time around.

Carry on.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 04:06 PM (kdS6q)

294 Where did Rubio come down on ethanol?

Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM (xuouz)

295 Question: What place could Rubio come in in New Hampshire and still act like he won it all? Second? Third? Fifth!?

Posted by: Buzzion at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM (z/Ubi)

296 I think most everyone that comments here is fucked up in the head one way or the other. Some more than others.

Posted by: Soona at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM (Fmupd)

297 "My anxiety means my eye contact isn't well developed...."

For me, it's strabismus.

However, having my eyes pointing in wildly different directions does make me much more difficult to sneak up on.

Posted by: torquewrench at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM (noWW6)

298 Narrative shift, much?

Posted by: Rube the Lube at February 02, 2016 04:03 PM (QW1hJ)

It's just the pundits and partisans finding the reasons for joy in the muddle that is the Iowa caucuses. And explaining that while they were wrong in their predictions it totally does not matter because here's another explanation which totally vindicates me and shows that I was actually correct.

Why are you looking at me that way? All of my analyses can be shown to be correct in almost everyone of the details.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - ReFit your Conniptions at the Outrage Outlet! at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM (hLRSq)

299 Or, Trump is an idiot and attracts people who saw him on TV and don't think about issues much.

Posted by: TallDave at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM (/s1LA)

300 Another business OT.
Tiger Direct closed most of its stores. The last e-mail flyer sent out was about a week ago. The only things left for sale on their web site are a couple of audio-video calibration kits. It would seem they have gone from bad to toast. Another case of bad leadership leading to fundamental transformation.

Posted by: Back To Lurking at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM (haWHk)

301 "279 Tzatziki sauce.
Posted by: The Greeking Greeks"

I ate of lot of that because I heard it made your breasts grow large. It worked.

Posted by: Andrea Tantaros at February 02, 2016 04:08 PM (OD2ni)

302 >>I've been to Amsterdam. They serve gin in glasses the size of soup bowls. I give them a pass.

Right next to the Museum of Sex (yes, really) in Amsterdam there is a stand that sells fries with mayo in these large paper cones.

I don't know what all that means but I like it.

Posted by: JackStraw at February 02, 2016 04:08 PM (/tuJf)

303

Like Sean Connery in Zardoz! Elect me, or you will see my wrath!

Posted by: HilDog in a Banana Hammock at February 02, 2016 04:08 PM (qul7b)

304 294 Where did Rubio come down on ethanol?
Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM (xuouz)

I love ethanol, on the rocks.

Posted by: The Donald at February 02, 2016 04:08 PM (xWW96)

305 Where did Rubio come down on ethanol?

Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM (xuouz)

The backseat of a 78 Caprice Classic.

Posted by: *Mikey NTH - ReFit your Conniptions at the Outrage Outlet! at February 02, 2016 04:09 PM (hLRSq)

306 Aspergers, autism, ADHD, NVLD...mental health diagnoses are generally descriptive, they're not actual diagnoses.

Pneumonia is a diagnosis. There's fluid in your lung.

The mental health classifications are vague ways of understanding what's going on. Also you need a DSM category for the insurance to cover it.

I say this as a guy who raised a boy with rotating diagnoses. The professionals do the best they can, but mental health ain't viruses and microbes.

Posted by: Bandersnatch, Opus/Bill the Cat 2016 at February 02, 2016 04:09 PM (1xUj/)

307 And yes, Cruz can win a general election.

Remember kids, during the primary Carter was beating Reagan by 18 points.

Posted by: TallDave at February 02, 2016 04:09 PM (/s1LA)

308 The downside is you get Trump saying people don't like you (which may very well be true), but who cares?

===

Its a difference in viewpoint. As a businessman, Trump watches the players and people involved. He'd look at Cruz as a player, a principal, and look at what effect he has on others. His conclusions are his and fair as they go.

Posted by: Bigby's Coin Flip at February 02, 2016 04:10 PM (3ZtZW)

309 Trump could kill a man on 5th Avenue, and he would still come in second.

Posted by: Harun at February 02, 2016 04:10 PM (UBBWX)

310 "Yahoo Expected to Say It Is Exploring 'Strategic Alternatives' for Its Web Business"

Unpossible.

I was reliably assured that when fymynyst icon and Obama fangirl Marissa Mayer took over at Yahoo, that she would speedily right the ship.

Posted by: torquewrench at February 02, 2016 04:10 PM (noWW6)

311 National Review writers are practically wetting themselves with joy at the first Trump loss. I'm a bit surprised about all the fawning over Cruz on the same site, however- I haven't gotten the impression NR particularly likes Cruz but presumably, they're in full "Anybody but Trump" mode.

Posted by: Baboo the Occelot at February 02, 2016 04:10 PM (vDEpI)

312 "Terry Brandstadt, R. is feeling a little stupid today for his hysterical rant"

he may well have hurt more than helped. let sleeping ethanol dogs lie.

How does ethanol become so prominent? Does it indicate anyone will cut off all lobbying or subsidies? Nope. It was just a convenient angle to use on Trump, and WOW the Hate (ethanol) Week mind control sure worked here. The governor wanted it much more than Trump apparently.

Meanwhile that avoided other uncomfortable positions on the real threats to America First ... TPP, Muslim/Hispanic invasion, H-1B. well played ... well played ... for Iowa at least.

Posted by: Illiniwek at February 02, 2016 04:10 PM (5Gpe2)

313 All along, I have been open to the idea of a Trump candidacy on the possibility that there was an X Factor lurking out there, a mass of voters -- doesn't have to be huge, just 2-3% would be plenty big -- who were disaffected from the political system but who could be induced into it by the Trump candidacy.

--

And if he pulls off double digit wins (as some polls suggest) in NH and SC, will that change your assessment? I still believe there are a huge swath of disaffected voters who are mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore and have hitched their disaffected voter wagons to Trump. We'll know soon enough.

Posted by: Lady in Black - Death to the Man Bun at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (pVkEV)

314 sock off

Posted by: maddogg, now certified infrequently vile at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (xWW96)

315 291 Look, Trumpkins, your guy would go on and on about how awesome his poll numbers were and disparage others about their weak poll numbers.

Posted by: Harun at February 02, 2016 04:05 PM (UBBWX)

Wow... a post straight out of Alinsky's Rules for Radicals....

Well done... and so persuasive.

/eye roll...

Posted by: Don Quixote at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (f7rv6)

316 FFS, this Iowa shit is so overblown.

Posted by: WhatWhatWhat? at February 02, 2016 03:54 PM (r9tFS)

The pundits finally get to blow the load they've built up for a year...

Posted by: cajun caret at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (UZQM8)

317 Love how second place is a loss.
Fucking hysterical.
Posted by: Bigby's Coin Flip at February 02, 2016 03:20 PM (3ZtZW)

If you're not first, you're last!

Posted by: Lea at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (lIU4e)

318 The problem with Iowa is that its such a weird system that analysis is pretty meaningless. Even the modified caucus system still doesn't really give you a good feel for voter mood or turnout.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (39g3+)

319 Trump could kill a man on 5th Avenue, and he would still come in second.

Man, the most dangerous game. I hear he hunts several every week to keep his bloodlust all lusty.

Posted by: Flyguy at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (r2qlt)

320
280

someone is autistic doesn't convey much information.
Yes there is some validity to this notion because people without experience expect to see Rainman, and when they don't see it,they think something's up.
Each kid still has their own personality - not Rainman's personality. They all don't watch Wapner for example. But they may have rote sayings, behavior tics etc. Its coming from the same source but expressed differently in each kid. Kids in the same family can have it expressed in different ways/degrees.
No intent to offend and I am not offended here.
I've got scars on top of my scars.

Posted by: simplemind at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (JTwsP)

321 So this is how I expect to see the SuperBowel results reported by the MSM

In a shocking upset, Team XX came in next to last, while Team YY suddenly jumped into an unexpectedly second place finish!!

Let's go talk to team YY's Quarterback, the real hero of todays upset victory.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at February 02, 2016 04:12 PM (ptqRm)

322 Trump didn't spend any money because he doesn't want to spend any money.

Just wait until he decides to shoe string it against Hillary.

Posted by: Harun at February 02, 2016 04:12 PM (UBBWX)

323 @252 "...It's his ego. He always talks about himself. And his treatment of women. Attacking Megyn Kelly was a big mistake because it played to a big weakness of his.

And he is really really nasty. The ones who won't vote for him are women. I haven't heard a man say that. But he is a lightweight on abortion, they don't trust it, and he is vile to women, not just in the campaign but going way way back."

I didn't follow his soap opera going way back, but it does seem to be the case that when he gets on the other side of something with a woman, he gets rather vulgar (if it's on Twitter, or in person). That being said, his ex-wife has endorsed him, his daughter is helping to run his company, and when he went after Rosie O'Donnell, he was DEFENDING the young women in his event.

And I hear nastiness from men too. An abortion stance doesn't really explain it.

Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 04:12 PM (/q6+P)

324 An absolute MAJORITY of the new caucusgoers did NOT vote for Trump. Over 50% voted for either Cruz or Rubio... not Doc Screwloose from Toulouse.

Posted by: mnw (rare and flounced) at February 02, 2016 04:12 PM (GXwGP)

325 troyriser: "Trump has been a public figure for 30 years, a reality TV star for 10 of those years."

No question that helps with branding; but running for the top office with no actual stumping or national campaign experience is no trivial feat. To have bettered all but one of the field and to have missed top delegate distribution by one is excellent. And Trump, like him or hate him, has empowered the GOP and amplified interest to it. No one's done it since Reagan.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at February 02, 2016 04:12 PM (1CroS)

326 artisanal 'ette: "They are neutered. Giving JEF free reign."

When did they not give free reign?

There isn't a fight Team McConnell will not flee. Well, maybe bar tabs with the CoC.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at February 02, 2016 04:01 PM (1CroS)

during election year

this can only strengthen Trump and Cruz

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 04:12 PM (qCMvj)

327 The Army and Marine Corps top uniformed leaders both backed making women register for the draft as all combat roles are opened to them in coming months, a sweeping social change that could complicate the militarys gender integration plans.

LMAO

Posted by: Nevergiveup at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (kzdjp)

328 Rubio said that ethanol owes him nothing, but he owes ethanol a debt he can never repay.
It came out a little different in spanish, I think.

Posted by: Roland THTG at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (QM5S2)

329 245
180,000 voters and he loses by 4,200 votes and by one delegate...and Trump is the biggest loserz, evahs!

Ayeah. Right. OK, if you say so.

Let's see what happens in New Hampshire before we call the race, shall we?

Posted by: The Hot Gates at February 02, 2016 03:55 PM (KJZeR)

Who knew there were so many nazis in Iowa?

Posted by: rebel flounder at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (3dOE/)

330 Tzatziki sauce.

Posted by: The Greeking Greeks at February 02, 2016 04:02 PM (2lndx)

yummy

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (qCMvj)

331 Just wait until he decides to shoe string it against Hillary.
Posted by: Harun at February 02, 2016 04:12 PM (UBBWX)

Is he planning to withhold his donations this year?

Posted by: maddogg, now certified infrequently vile at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (xWW96)

332 295 Question: What place could Rubio come in in New Hampshire and still act like he won it all? Second? Third? Fifth!?
-----------------------------------------------------

Thread winner!

Posted by: MTF at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (TxJGV)

333 What do you dip your french fries in?

mustard.

Posted by: Mainah at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (659DL)

334 >>So this is how I expect to see the SuperBowel results reported by the MSM

On the other hand, the NY Jets new GM was voted the executive of the year by the PFW. The Jets did not make the playoffs but many thought they would' more than 5 or maybe 6 games. They won 10.

Posted by: JackStraw at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (/tuJf)

335 "I still believe there are a huge swath of disaffected voters who are mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore and have hitched their disaffected voter wagons to Trump. We'll know soon enough."

Posted by: Lady in Black - Death to the Man Bun at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (pVkEV)

Yeah, what she said.

Posted by: jwest at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (Zs4uk)

336 "Another business OT. Tiger Direct closed most of its stores."

And as the Obama economic miracle continues to unfold, big time Obama backer GE is laying off hundreds of engineers.

http://tinyurl.com/jb9myj4

But there's totally a shortage of STEM workers in this country, you understand. We need moar H-1B visas issued _stat_!

Posted by: torquewrench at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (noWW6)

337
An absolute MAJORITY of the new caucusgoers did NOT vote for Trump. Over 50% voted for either Cruz or Rubio... not Doc Screwloose from Toulouse.
Posted by: mnw

We'd explain the concept of marginal utility to you, but the effort would be wasted.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (kdS6q)

338 "Trump is an idiot and attracts people who saw him on TV and don't think about issues much" TallDave

presenting alleged facts not in evidence. Evidence is opposite.

Trump has more than twice the college grad support of Rubio/Jeb combined, much more than Cruz/Carson combined, according to the national polls.

Posted by: Illiniwek at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (5Gpe2)

339 327
The Army and Marine Corps top uniformed leaders both backed making women register for the draft as all combat roles are opened to them in coming months, a sweeping social change that could complicate the militarys gender integration plans.

LMAO

Posted by: Nevergiveup at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (kzdjp)

Filed under, Be Careful What You Ask For.

Posted by: rebel flounder at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (3dOE/)

340 Tiger Direct closed most of its stores. The last e-mail flyer sent out was about a week ago. The only things left for sale on their web site are a couple of audio-video calibration kits. It would seem they have gone from bad to toast. Another case of bad leadership leading to fundamental transformation.

Wow, that's news to me. Their catalogs were always around, but I only bought from them once ... they sent me a video card with a capacitor that fell off. They replaced it, but that was extra hassle.

Usually use NewEgg for tech buys. Fast service and a better web interface.

Posted by: ReactionaryMonster browsing Bravely at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (uURQL)

341 Look, Trumpkins, your guy would go on and on about how awesome his poll numbers were and disparage others about their weak poll numbers.

Posted by: Harun at February 02, 2016 04:05 PM (UBBWX)

Let me explain something to you, you non-10-year-coin-having proof of ewokship squish GOPe interloper.

Us Trumptards prefer to be called Trumptards, or sTrumpets. Check your privilege.

Secondly, Rubio can get on the 'check my yuge polls' train when he actually has yuge polls. Scoreboard.

Third, Trump is an avatar of destruction. His policies do not matter. His old positions do not matter. What he said about that one lady does not matter. His ability to give Jeb Bush an indian burn on national television is what matters. Most of all, his strategy of smashing the media narrative into a yuuuuge number of pieces and then kicking Megyn Kelly in the pants when she bends over to glue it back together is what matters.

We finally have a candidate who can deliver the lolz. I'm sorry our electorate needs to be spoon fed like some aspie kid. But this is the world we live in.

Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (xuouz)

342 Can we go with a simpler explanation- that over seventy percent of even those meth-cooking, ethanol-distilling, sister-fuckers who crawled out of their flyover country Jesusland trailer parks don't think that unreliable demagogue with the bad combover deserves to be President? Him with his robber baron mentality and disposable bimbo trophy misogyny marriages?

Our neighbors in New Hampshire are slightly more sensible people, and I am confident when things are serious, they will reject his insanity and find some more normal opponent for the progressive stalwart of the Senate to battle.

Sanders in '16!!!!!!

Posted by: Mary Cloggenstein from Brattleboro, Vermont at February 02, 2016 04:15 PM (2EepA)

343 Sometimes the ability to learn stuff, remember stuff word for word isn't aspergerers or autism spectrum.

But plain old intelligence. An attribute seldom seen much anymore.

Posted by: ugg boots at February 02, 2016 04:15 PM (fbovC)

344 "What do you dip your french fries in?"

Hippie tears. The extra bitter variety. You have to special order those.

Posted by: torquewrench at February 02, 2016 04:15 PM (noWW6)

345 ...Did I piss everyone off?

Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 04:15 PM (xuouz)

346 >>>Right next to the Museum of Sex

I usually stay at the Manor Hotel on Linnaeusstraat. Handy for the tram, and a number of decent bars close by.

Oh, and I'm an aficionado of "The Torture Museum".

Posted by: An Poc ar Buile at February 02, 2016 04:15 PM (bpn7O)

347 They are neutered. Giving JEF free reign.

Hopefully it was "free rein" and not reign, unless Obama's America has officially entered the imperial phase and no one told me.

Posted by: The Persnickity Aspergers Guy at February 02, 2016 04:16 PM (TxJGV)

348 An absolute MAJORITY of the new caucusgoers did NOT vote for Trump

-----

Well.... since there WAS no absolute majority....for any candidate.

Google up "plurality" there sport.

Posted by: fixerupper at February 02, 2016 04:17 PM (8XRCm)

349 Filed under, Be Careful What You Ask For.
Posted by: rebel flounder at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (3dOE/)

Yup

Posted by: Nevergiveup at February 02, 2016 04:17 PM (kzdjp)

350 The pundits finally get to blow the load they've built up for a year...

Yeah, pretty much. The reporters live four years for a chance to cover the presidential election and this is their moment!!!! Yawn.

Meanwhile, 3rd is first and 2nd is last, and 1st we just don't talk about on the GOP side, as on the Dem side the winner lost and fraud is all over but ignored. Its like journalism has become blind man's bluff, they're just staggering around and picking things at random without looking and making something up about it.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at February 02, 2016 04:17 PM (39g3+)

351 @313 "... And if he pulls off double digit wins (as some polls suggest) in NH and SC, will that change your assessment? I still believe there are a huge swath of disaffected voters who are mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore and have hitched their disaffected voter wagons to Trump. We'll know soon enough."

Maybe. This just sort of reminds me of similar things in the past - like maybe the 2012, where you'd think people would be up in arms to throw that asshole out, but they didn't really show. And the 2008 election was just a disgrace.

Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 04:17 PM (/q6+P)

352 Did I piss everyone off?

Why? Was that your intention? ;^) I haven't read all of the posts, so, no,, you didn't piss me off.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 04:18 PM (w4NZ8)

353 349 Filed under, Be Careful What You Ask For.
Posted by: rebel flounder at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (3dOE/)
Yup
Posted by: Nevergiveup at February 02, 2016 04:17 PM (kzdjp)

Love it. Good to see actual fighting men standing up to the treason disguised as idiocy that is diversity and social justice.

Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 04:18 PM (xuouz)

354 342
Sanders in '16!!!!!!

Posted by: Mary Cloggenstein from Brattleboro, Vermont at February 02, 2016 04:15 PM (2EepA)

Well done.

Posted by: rebel flounder at February 02, 2016 04:18 PM (3dOE/)

355 Posted by: Ghost of kari - WAR at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (xuouz)

-----

*sniff*

... pure poetry man.

Posted by: fixerupper at February 02, 2016 04:18 PM (8XRCm)

356 I think Trump lost Iowa when he started insulting them.
They don't like that

Posted by: navybrat at February 02, 2016 04:18 PM (8QGte)

357 343 Sometimes the ability to learn stuff, remember stuff word for word isn't aspergerers or autism spectrum.

But plain old intelligence. An attribute seldom seen much anymore.
Posted by: ugg boots at February 02, 2016 04:15 PM (fbovC)

--------------

Consideration should always be given to the fact that a lot of people are just stupid.

Posted by: Soona at February 02, 2016 04:18 PM (Fmupd)

358 Here's a simpler theory for Mr. Caddell that's based on similar anecdotal evidence (none): NH Dems are racists!

Posted by: scrood at February 02, 2016 04:19 PM (3b9U4)

359 Ok this is funny. I was talking to my husband about is Cruz or isn't he autistic (hubby agrees yes) and my husband told me he had a dream that Cruz was searching through the internet reading every comment made about him and memorizing it and shaping his campaign accordingly.

That seems...not so implausible.

Posted by: Lauren at February 02, 2016 04:19 PM (3DIzJ)

360 337
An absolute MAJORITY of the new caucusgoers did NOT vote for Trump. Over 50% voted for either Cruz or Rubio... not Doc Screwloose from Toulouse.
Posted by: mnw

I would appreciate someone explaining how this is known.

Posted by: jwest at February 02, 2016 04:19 PM (Zs4uk)

361 Does everyone really understand what the Republican version of the Iowa caucus is? Because I see a lot of comments (not just here) that seem to indicate people think it is more like the Dem version with speechifying and teeth gnashing. It really is just going in and voting via secret ballot. There is a little more fanfare to it and you can be all republicany and wear your Trump hat or whatever, but it is not the rabble rousing town square event that the dems hold.

Posted by: ajmojo at February 02, 2016 04:19 PM (1H9ox)

362
"Love how second place is a loss.
Fucking hysterical"
So the funniest conversation I had today was with a democrat who was saying to me how Rubio really "won" in Iowa. I said, so if Rubio 'won" I suppose Trump "super won". Blank stare, stammer, "no I meant success". So then Trump wasmoresuccessful than Rubio by your standards. Glad to see you so enthusiastic about the Republican candidates.

Long story short, guy has no idea what to think and just repeating stuff he reads on politico. He is scared of Trump for some reason he can't quite articulate. Its a gut level fear of the unknown.
Of course these days, there is a lot of that going around.

Posted by: simplemind at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (JTwsP)

363 I think Trump lost Iowa when he started insulting them. They don't like that

I think Trump doesn't care if he loses Iowa. He knows how small a state it is. There are about 30 states you can just write off entirely and win comfortably anyway.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (39g3+)

364 They are neutered. Giving JEF free reign.

Hopefully it was "free rein" and not reign, unless Obama's America has officially entered the imperial phase and no one told me.

Posted by: The Persnickity Aspergers Guy at February 02, 2016 04:16 PM (TxJGV)

nah, I meant reign

and NOOD, btw

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (qCMvj)

365 I think the modern world is just much less accepting of the idea that people can just be themselves without having to fit into a box.

Very true.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (w4NZ8)

366 327 The Army and Marine Corps top uniformed leaders both backed making women register for the draft as all combat roles are opened to them in coming months, a sweeping social change that could complicate the militarys gender integration plans. LMAO
Posted by: Nevergiveup at February 02, 2016 04:13 PM (kzdjp)

Filed under, Be Careful What You Ask For.
Posted by: rebel flounder at February 02, 2016 04:14 PM (3dOE/)

Who asked for it though? The Obama Administration and a handful of people in the service?

Posted by: Lea at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (lIU4e)

367 It's too late for it in 2016, but a candidate who would actually make deals as opposed to just giving the Democrats what they want would be a success. Too many of the "deals" of the past 16 years have been "we give you what you want now, you give us what our constituents want (we assure you, we don't want it) in four or five years, and maybe we'll revisit it so that it doesn't happen in four or five years either."

Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (2lndx)

368 I would like to take a moment to remind folks that those on the spectrum can just as easily devote their attention to "fitting in" socially as they might to dinosaurs or counting matchsticks or what have you. And can thus escape detection in many casual situations, until you notice odd performance issues...

Posted by: Brother Cavil, Restorationist at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (9krrF)

369 Why can I never close tags anymore?? Too busy today..

Posted by: Lea at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (lIU4e)

370
Petunia...

You are painfully, horribly ignorant.

Please stop arguing against Trump; or anyone, for that matter.

You are a child.

...that goes for Magnolia, Begonia and Marigold as well.

Posted by: Slapweasel (Cold1) (T) at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (OQ9R7)

371 Ok this is funny. I was talking to my husband about is Cruz or isn't he autistic (hubby agrees yes) and my husband told me he had a dream that Cruz was searching through the internet reading every comment made about him and memorizing it and shaping his campaign accordingly.

That seems...not so implausible.
Posted by: Lauren at February 02, 2016 04:19 PM (3DIzJ)

I wasn't, but that's a great idea.

Posted by: Ted Cruz at February 02, 2016 04:21 PM (uURQL)

372
"What do you dip your french fries in?"

Federal mandated diet. Can't have French fries. Get them while you can.
There is some serious hurt coming to Idaho.
At least they don't have those genetically modified mosquitoes.

Also, ass-burger:
FREE REIN. FREE REIN. FREE REIN. FREE REIN. FREE REIN.

It's not a "reign." It's not "rain."

Posted by: Stringer Davis at February 02, 2016 04:21 PM (xq1UY)

373 @Don Quixote

Meanwhile, when Trump was extolling his poll numbers in his speeches, you weren't eye-rolling?

BTW, I'm not really anti-Trump, but the guy was bragging so hard on those numbers.

Posted by: Harun at February 02, 2016 04:21 PM (UBBWX)

374 Who asked for it though? The Obama Administration and a handful of people in the service?
Posted by: Lea at February 02, 2016 04:20 PM (lIU4e)

Feminism.

Though, feminists are just a tool of those who want to undermine every traditional institution protecting security and justice in society.

Posted by: ReactionaryMonster browsing Bravely at February 02, 2016 04:22 PM (uURQL)

375 Sanders in '16!!!!!!

Sanders is like the old 'Bud Light' commercial. ..

'Tastes Great, Less Felon'.

Posted by: ugg boots at February 02, 2016 04:22 PM (fbovC)

376 I would appreciate someone explaining how this is known.
Posted by: jwest at February 02, 2016 04:19 PM (Zs4uk)

---

Well.... since polling shows that the "jirst time caucusers" split their votes roughly evenly over the three vote getters.... if you take any two of the big three and add them together.... the odd guy out gets less than 50%.

Of course.... HE'S picking the odd guy out.

But... you can make the "did not get 50% of new voters" apply to Trump, Rubio or Cruz.

Posted by: fixerupper at February 02, 2016 04:23 PM (8XRCm)

377 I would appreciate someone explaining how this is known.

There's a lot of absolute statements being insisted on about the Iowa election that simply are without factual basis. The whole "you make your own reality, truth is relative" nonsense has seeped too much into peoples' minds.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at February 02, 2016 04:24 PM (39g3+)

378 iowa may not have disproven the x factor, but it at least failed to affirmatively prove it.

Posted by: ace at February 02, 2016
***

So stipulated. NH will be interesting. Hopefully, a big "Fuck you GOPe/Rat Establishment Fucks!!! Never again!! *Spit*" message will be conveyed.

Posted by: oddnot not liking these times at February 02, 2016 04:24 PM (g1MTt)

379 @336 "...And as the Obama economic miracle continues to unfold, big time Obama backer GE is laying off hundreds of engineers.

http://tinyurl.com/jb9myj4

But there's totally a shortage of STEM workers in this country, you understand. We need moar H-1B visas issued _stat_!"

"GE Aviation"? WTH? I used to work for GE Aerospace and we sold off! Who the hell is "GE Aviation"? What do they make?

Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 04:25 PM (/q6+P)

380 ...Amateur Flower Children.

Posted by: Slapweasel (Cold1) (T) at February 02, 2016 04:25 PM (OQ9R7)

381 I usually stay at the Manor Hotel on Linnaeusstraat. Handy for the tram, and a number of decent bars close by.

Oh, and I'm an aficionado of "The Torture Museum".

Posted by: An Poc ar Buile at February 02, 2016 04:15 PM (bpn7O)

I stay at the Amstel Intercontinental. That sex museum is in a seedy part of town.

Posted by: jwest at February 02, 2016 04:25 PM (Zs4uk)

382 There have always been extraordinarily smart and talented people who have been a bit socially awkward or inept.
I often think that if Mozart were alive today he would be dumbed down with all kinds of drugs and would have produced nothing, but he would have gotten along with others a bit better, perhaps.

Posted by: navybrat at February 02, 2016 04:26 PM (8QGte)

383

All part of my crafty plan to produce a stalemate in both parties and draft Snookie as a third party compromise candidate!

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Posted by: The Donald in a Banana Hammock at February 02, 2016 04:27 PM (qul7b)

384 "But plain old intelligence. An attribute seldom seen much anymore. "

No but audiographic memory is certainly a feature of autism.

Again, I don't think this is a bad thing.

Posted by: Lauren at February 02, 2016 04:27 PM (3DIzJ)

385 So Trump supporters apparently think Trump created interest in the race, including the debate he wasn't in, and this interest resulted in lots of people showing up to vote for... Cruz and Rubio?

It seems a lot more likely that there was already huge interest in the GOP primary, and Trump is benefitting from that by picking off voters who don't understand Trump has no principles, shame, or coherent policy positions.

Posted by: TallDave at February 02, 2016 04:27 PM (/s1LA)

386 And as the Obama economic miracle continues to unfold, big time Obama backer GE is laying off hundreds of engineers.

I wonder if the Pajama Boy in their commercials is one of them?

Posted by: tu3031 at February 02, 2016 04:27 PM (YFFpo)

387 O/T

Washington, DC council voted today (unanimously!) to approve a bill that includes a proposal to pay residents to NOT commit crimes.

Hope you like those new taxes, DC residents!

Posted by: Mainah at February 02, 2016 04:28 PM (659DL)

388 338
"Trump is an idiot and attracts people who saw him on TV and don't think about issues much" TallDave

presenting alleged facts not in evidence. Evidence is opposite.

Trump has more than twice the college grad support of Rubio/Jeb combined, much more than Cruz/Carson combined, according to the national polls.
###
Those two statements do not necessarily contradict each other. Apples and giraffes.

Posted by: ajmojo at February 02, 2016 04:28 PM (1H9ox)

389 Ted Cruz: "I wasn't, but that's a great idea."

Well played.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at February 02, 2016 04:28 PM (1CroS)

390 Oh, nood btw

Posted by: Lauren at February 02, 2016 04:30 PM (3DIzJ)

391 "GE Aviation"? WTH? I used to work for GE Aerospace and we sold off! Who the hell is "GE Aviation"? What do they make?
Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 04:25 PM (/q6+P)
-----
Part of GE. making aircraft engines. Also components (gas turbines, etc.) for GE Power and GE Marine, I think.

Posted by: RioBravo at February 02, 2016 04:33 PM (NUqwG)

392 @363 "...I think Trump doesn't care if he loses Iowa. He knows how small a state it is. There are about 30 states you can just write off entirely and win comfortably anyway."

@377 '...There's a lot of absolute statements being insisted on about the Iowa election that simply are without factual basis. The whole "you make your own reality, truth is relative" nonsense has seeped too much into peoples' minds.'

Party poop!!

Just kidding. I'm trying to see what I can learn from the data available, recognizing the fact that it may simply be impossible to confirm or deny much.

We DO know that there was a big turnout. It just looks like that can work both FOR you AND against.

As to your first point, I'm with some others in here. Trump DID want to win, and put Cruz away, but didn't consider it a big enough deal to spend huge quantities of his own money on it. What we might want to consider is that while Trump is super rich, it might put quite a strain on his finances to come with ACTUAL CASH.

Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 04:34 PM (/q6+P)

393 @391 "...Part of GE. making aircraft engines. Also components (gas turbines, etc.) for GE Power and GE Marine, I think."

Thanks! It was long ago. Maybe it was separate from the defense business (which was us). We did military radar and stuff. I remember that GE made engines, but I forget if they were part of our division.

Posted by: Optimizer at February 02, 2016 04:37 PM (/q6+P)

394 I think Trump DID motivate new voters to join in the caucus rumpus. He motivated them to come out to vote AGAINST him. I've seen evidence of this forming up out here in WA state.

Posted by: starboardhelm at February 02, 2016 04:38 PM (hOtJL)

395 "Those two statements do not necessarily contradict each other. Apples and giraffes."
there is a high correlation with college education and paying attention, countering the vacuous claim that Trump is idiot attracting those not paying attention. Giraffes and zebras.

Posted by: Illiniwek at February 02, 2016 04:45 PM (5Gpe2)

396 But they may have rote sayings, behavior tics etc.

Posted by: simplemind at February 02, 2016 04:11 PM (JTwsP)

EVERYBODY has their sayings (that they tend to repeat over and over) and behavior "tics" of all kinds. This is why you can usually identify someone's writing after you've read a few of their pieces and why you can identify people by their walk. That is just part of any personality.

The autism "spectrum" is so broad and ill-defined that a mountain would fall into the "spectrum" of a chair because you can sit on it.

Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at February 02, 2016 04:49 PM (zc3Db)

397 I don't buy that theory, because as Ace rightfully pointed out, if the theory of th race is we need more time to evaluate Trump, you vote for Cruz.

Yes, Cruz won, and out performed the polls, but most of that is attributable to ground game. I think you see less support for Rubio in a "must stop (or delay) Trump environment." Which is not to adopt the media narrative that Rubio won by coming in third, but to use as a potential refute to the game theory being espoused.

The real interesting bit is if Cruz can pull off 2nd in NH. Where all guns were blazing at Cruz (which is the reason Rubio "over performed" in my estimation) they will now be pointed at Marco. Also, Cruz's lane is narrower in NH, but he will almost have it to himself (Carson came in 4th in Iowa). Rubio will have much more competition in NH. If he comes in Third in NH, especially if Trump-Cruz are 1-2, it's difficult to sell him as the great unifier.

Posted by: Boone at February 02, 2016 05:06 PM (vq6QR)

398 >> I think most everyone that comments here is fucked up in the head
>> one way or the other. Some more than others.
>> Posted by: Soona at February 02, 2016 04:07 PM

Perhaps true, for very small values of f*cked.

Posted by: Duncanthrax the Bellicose at February 02, 2016 05:22 PM (ml1PM)

399 So who dragged out these 60K new mystery voters in Iowa?

Posted by: Miley's Tongue at February 02, 2016 05:25 PM (NTbr4)

400 Usually use NewEgg for tech buys. Fast service and a better web interface.

=======

And usually cheaper, too.

Posted by: mrp at February 02, 2016 06:19 PM (JBggj)

401 Hahaha! The garment-rending by the Trumpkins is DELICIOUS! Their "winner" lost!

Trying to put depth on the political bones of Donald Trump is a fool's exercise. He's a car salesman. Nothing less, nothing more.

He is not the savior of the Republican party or conservatism, he would DESTROY those things. He serves only one master and it's not the people, it's his own huge ego. Very happy to see that ego punctured, if just for a night.

Sorry your guy disappointed you, Ace. Next time, choose more wisely.

Posted by: JoeC at February 02, 2016 06:22 PM (bYdfC)

402 I think Trump made a mistake in attacking Cruz. Sure, you have to get down in the dirt a bit but his attacks against Cruz made him sound so "Democratic."

Cruz and Trump have great cross-over appeal - for lots of voters they are 1st/2nd or 2nd/1st choices. Either will need the other's voters down the line.

Rookie mistake. A bit more NUANCE would work better.

Posted by: Whitehall at February 02, 2016 06:42 PM (fjQIG)

403
hypothesized pool of Non-Voters Suddenly Becoming Voters

I'm not sure how many of these NVsbV's were discouraged because of the nature of the caucusing process and the time investment as opposed to a primary were all you need to do is show up, get a ballot, mark the ballot and be on your way in under 5 minutes.

I don't see the NVsbV's having tolerance for waiting so long. YMMV, however. That, and the fact that The Donald didn't seem to have a ground game hurt. And will continue to hurt until he gets one.

Being yuge and handsomer can carry only so far.

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at February 02, 2016 08:02 PM (xMawC)

404 Rubio spent more money in IA than any candidate than Bush and still finished third. Bush finished fifth. GOPe bit big time.

And telling me longtime Democrats can't wait to vote for Trump...? Nnnnnnot a selling point...

Posted by: Richard McEnroe at February 02, 2016 08:32 PM (f3dLV)

405 Iowa had record breaking GOP primary voter turnout (60,000 more than the previous record of 120,000) as did every single GOP debate, sans the one that Trump skipped, which got half as many viewers as the previous Fox debate (24 million viewers with Trump, 12.5 million without).

That shows enormous voter support for Trump, and it's certainly enough to knock Rich Lowry's balls through his throat should Trump decide to run as an Independent.

The GOP establishment did after all force Trump to sign a loyalty oath before they schemed to undermine him. Loyalty works both ways or it doesn't work at all.

Posted by: BHO at February 02, 2016 08:58 PM (4QW48)

406 It's problematical at best to project what's going to happen based on Iowa with its caucus system. New Hampshire will be a better test. I believe that was all that was work in 2008 too.

Posted by: Random Thought Generator at February 02, 2016 11:16 PM (gYfnZ)

407 Follow da ad money and look at the results ..... Who lost in Iowa?

http://news.yahoo.com/campaigning-style-jeb-bush-blew-warchest-112051485.html

Posted by: bd2dabone at February 03, 2016 05:26 AM (E/DSu)

408 No spending there, spent little time in the state (according to someone who was there), and no visible ground game, yet he finishes second within the MOE.

Sounds like all he needed to win was one small Chihuahua.

Posted by: formwiz at February 03, 2016 10:45 AM (3rwvI)

Processing 0.04, elapsed 0.0541 seconds.
15 queries taking 0.022 seconds, 417 records returned.
Page size 235 kb.
Powered by Minx 0.8 beta.