Tomorrow's Florida Results - Today

I'm getting a general feeling that a lot of Ol' Fred's supporters are coalescing behind Mitt Romney. This is bad news for Rudy, who (poll-wise) seems to be hitting a ceiling of 20% and hanging back a distant third. Unless he can account for the lion's share of absentee votes - not an insignificant number - I'd say he's in trouble. After tomorrow, there'll be no more patterns of "primary - news coverage - momentum, primary - news coverage - momentum, etc.". It's pretty much gut-check time for GOP voters. Time to make that decision and to stop waiting to see who's in, who's out and who's the flavor of the week.

This flipping of Fredheads is also a problem for McCain. As this looks to become more of a two-way race you have McCain v. anti-McCain. And as of now that anti-McCain vote is looking more and more like Romney. Romney has about a week to convince voters on "Apocalypse Tuesday" that 1) he's the candidate that most represents them and 2) McCain's case that he is the best general election is an illusion perpetuated by the MSM (who would turn around and eviscerate him once he secures the nomination).

Anyway, my predictions (which have been awful so far):

Romney: 35%
McCain: 31%
Huckabee: 13%
Giuliani: 12%
Paul: 8%
Other: 1%

As for the Dems? It's wide-open with Edwards only staying in to try and parlay a second chance at the Veep spot.

UPDATE:
John Hinderaker on the likely two-man race scenario after tomorrow:

Barring a surprise in Florida, Republican primary voters and caucus-goers on mega-Tuesday will face a stark but classic political choice: do they go with Romney, whose views across a broad range of issues are more palatable to conservatives and whose economic expertise may be badly needed, or with McCain, who seems pretty clearly more likely to prevent the Clintons from re-inhabiting the White House? It's not an easy choice. We'll have more to say about it in due course.

UPDATE DEUX:
Giuliani hints he could drop out after Florida. Unless he or his campaign vehemently denies this, he pretty much takes away any incentive for Floridians to vote for him. (Disclosure: I declared for Giuliani back in December).

Posted by: Gary at 09:39 AM

Comments

1 Romney - on whose campaign I worked when he ran against Ted Kennedy - is a suicide move by GOPers. He is completely unelectable in November. Republicans should nominate him if they want to be secure in their beliefs and avoid the responsibility of actually governing. In other words, like the Democrats during Reagan's presidency. Or your proto-typical circular firing squad.

Posted by: tdp at January 28, 2008 10:47 AM (7CsBg)

2 I think a fourth place finish by Rudy would finish him. I'd like to see him hang around a little longer, but I think the late start strategy he and Thompson both adopted was fatal. You have to play in either NH or Iowa to be a candidate, period. If Rudy drops out, I think his support goes to McCain.

I don't count McCain out in Florida, either -- Rudy's voters may conclude he's already out and may break late for McCain.

I think Huckabee is on life support. I think he needs a very strong third to keep going.

Posted by: The Abbot at January 28, 2008 11:09 AM (b1/bF)

3 tdp - Interesting how this is shaping up, with each side (McCain and anti-McCain) viewing the other as a complete disaster for the future of the party.

Posted by: Gary at January 28, 2008 11:50 AM (PLHs9)

4 Gary - I agree. I think McCain might hurt some of the current princes of the party. But I think some of them would rather retain their status as prince then win. I'd rather win.

We'll see.
TDP

Posted by: tdp at January 28, 2008 01:01 PM (7CsBg)

Processing 0.0, elapsed 0.0069 seconds.
18 queries taking 0.0052 seconds, 12 records returned.
Page size 6 kb.
Powered by Minx 0.8 beta.