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Iran Refuses to Send Delegation to Negotiations in Islamabad as Cease-Fire Is Due to Expire
The trouble here is that Trump wants a deal. Iran does not. They want to keep their nuclear program and missiles and remain in power. Trump wants them to want a deal, but they do not.
So he keeps threatening them in apocalyptic terms to make them want to want a deal. But they don't. And I don't think they believe he would or even could "end their civilization." Trump doesn't want this war to drag on but that's exactly what Iran wants. They figure that if they can drag this out, public opinion in the US will compel Trump to just walk away from the war without actually forcing them to come to terms or to abandon power. And they're probably right, unfortunately.Last-minute ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran looked uncertain Tuesday as a two-week truce was set to expire and both countries warned that, without a deal, they were prepared to resume fighting. U.S. Vice President JD Vance, expected to lead U.S. negotiators if talks continue in Pakistan, remained in Washington on Tuesday, a White House official said. And Pakistan, which has been urging both sides to return to Islamabad, said it was still awaiting confirmation on whether Iran would participate. Earlier in the day, two regional officials said Washington and Tehran had signaled they would hold a second round of talks, with Vance leading the U.S. team and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf as its top negotiator. Both spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief reporters. But Pakistan's information minister, Attaullah Tarar, said later Tuesday on X that Iran had not formally confirmed its participation. The ceasefire was set to expire Wednesday. AP correspondent Charles de Ledesma reports on further confusion regarding this week's projected Iran-US ceasefire talks. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told Iran's state TV there has been "no final decision" on whether to attend because of "unacceptable actions" by the U.S., apparently referencing its recent blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.Tousi has a more optimistic take on this than I do, stating that this is just a "desperate" tactic by Iran to show that they're the ones in charge. But... if one person wants to negotiate and you refuse, you are in charge, at least on the question of whether negotiations will happen. He also says Iran is in "chaos" because no one knows who's actually in charge there. But that also means that the deal that Trump so desperately wants -- and I think he has telegraphed his desire for a deal much harder than he should have -- will still not happen. I don't think this bothers Tousi much because he wants regime change, and Iran is making it clear that nothing but regime change will result in a deal. But Trump just doesn't have the Bush-like indifference to public opinion and sheer bullheadedness about continuing an unpopular war. Iran believes that if they just refuse to concede, Trump will eventually be forced, by public pressure, to just declare a (false) victory and go home. Just making more and more extravagant threats isn't changing Iran's posture. I don't know where this goes from here. I think Trump can afford to just wait Iran out with a long and crippling blockade, but I don't know that Trump feels like he has enough public support for several months of low-intensity warfare. I've feared from the start that there is just no way to truly win a war without some ground component -- you have to literally blow their heads off and hang them from street-lamps -- and without an armed civilian overthrow, I'm thinking this war ends in a stalemate. Lots of damage inflicted on the mullocracy -- but the mullahs left in place to rebuild. Do you have a more optimistic take than I do?
Vance had policy meetings scheduled at the White House on Wednesday morning, said a White House official who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. The vice president's office and the White House did not immediately respond to messages asking whether Vance still intends to travel to Pakistan. Trump says he doesn't favor extending ceasefire Both sides remain dug in rhetorically. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that "lots of bombs" will "start going off" if there's no agreement before the ceasefire deadline, and Iran's chief negotiator said that Tehran has "new cards on the battlefield" that haven't yet been revealed. The ceasefire, which began April 8, could be extended if talks resume, though Trump said in an interview Tuesday with CNBC: "Well, I don't want to do that." "We don't have that much time," Trump said, adding that Iran "had a choice" and "they have to negotiate."
Comments
(Jump to bottom of comments)1
SPONGE!
Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo at April 21, 2026 02:16 PM (xcxpd)
2
And clearly all we can do is keep killing leadership until someone takes power who we can deal with.
Minimal boots on the ground needed for that. This is a SF playground.
Minimal boots on the ground needed for that. This is a SF playground.
Posted by: Mark Andrew Edwards, buy ammo at April 21, 2026 02:17 PM (xcxpd)
3
I nooded
Posted by: LinusVanPelt at April 21, 2026 02:17 PM (xT8gx)
4
foist!
Posted by: The Whine Guy at April 21, 2026 02:17 PM (L6dcX)
5
Not foist!
Posted by: The Whine Guy at April 21, 2026 02:18 PM (L6dcX)
6
Can we finally have bridge and power plant day, Mr President? Please??!!!
Posted by: LinusVanPelt at April 21, 2026 02:18 PM (xT8gx)
7
Where is the Iranian Al Haig?
Posted by: Count de Monet at April 21, 2026 02:18 PM (wVcYX)
8
Boots on the ground in Iran with Kurdish troops from the north and Iran will fold in weeks like Iraq
Posted by: Matthew at April 21, 2026 02:19 PM (OdsgZ)
9
I take Tousi's view of things; but time will tell. Trump's deadline runs out tomorrow night.
On the good side - the blockade is severely damaging Iraq without costing us much.
The bad - I'm starting to think that Trump's threat to blow up bridges and power stations was always just a big bluff.
On the good side - the blockade is severely damaging Iraq without costing us much.
The bad - I'm starting to think that Trump's threat to blow up bridges and power stations was always just a big bluff.
Posted by: Tom Servo at April 21, 2026 02:19 PM (rGqqI)
10
As the chaos engulfs Iran, I imagine out footprint there could go down. A single aircraft carrier with a couple of destroyers, parked at the mouth of the straight, is more than sufficient.
Stop all Iranian bound ships and destroy any concentrations of Iranian forces. Then let simmer for six months.
Stop all Iranian bound ships and destroy any concentrations of Iranian forces. Then let simmer for six months.
Posted by: The Whine Guy at April 21, 2026 02:20 PM (L6dcX)
11
8 Boots on the ground in Iran with Kurdish troops from the north and Iran will fold in weeks like Iraq
Posted by: Matthew at April 21, 2026 02:19 PM (OdsgZ)
except so far it looks like the 15 or however many different Kurdish groups would rather fight each other than fight Iran.
Posted by: Matthew at April 21, 2026 02:19 PM (OdsgZ)
except so far it looks like the 15 or however many different Kurdish groups would rather fight each other than fight Iran.
Posted by: Tom Servo at April 21, 2026 02:20 PM (rGqqI)
12
He needs to swing to domestic issues and let them stew. Focus on affordability and jobs.
He needs to get people motivated for November and if he’s out talking the economy people will forget Iran exists.
Let them rot.
He needs to get people motivated for November and if he’s out talking the economy people will forget Iran exists.
Let them rot.
Posted by: Gregory Peck at April 21, 2026 02:20 PM (XodLO)
13
>>>
The bad - I'm starting to think that Trump's threat to blow up bridges and power stations was always just a big bluff.
well he doesn't want to starve the iranian civilians. The regime is fine with that, because they're the regime's enemies anyway.
The bad - I'm starting to think that Trump's threat to blow up bridges and power stations was always just a big bluff.
well he doesn't want to starve the iranian civilians. The regime is fine with that, because they're the regime's enemies anyway.
Posted by: ace at April 21, 2026 02:21 PM (1wjle)
14
I don't remember Trump campaigning on any of this. I must have missed that day.
Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at April 21, 2026 02:21 PM (CQ3Qb)
15
"Here we bring both war and peace. Take whichever you wish." When the Carthaginians shouted in umbrage at the ultimatum, a Roman senator then said, "Then I leave you war."
Tehran delenda est
Tehran delenda est
Posted by: Anna Puma at April 21, 2026 02:21 PM (2GVsD)
16
Good questions, ace, and I have to re-re-re-read the content to proffer an answer.
For now, what would happen if Vance kinda leaned over the table and asked, "Does this have something to do with the Twelfth Imam? Satan, that sort of thing?"
Good questions, ace, and I have to re-re-re-read the content to proffer an answer.
For now, what would happen if Vance kinda leaned over the table and asked, "Does this have something to do with the Twelfth Imam? Satan, that sort of thing?"
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 02:21 PM (n7rxJ)
17
The trools are everywhere in this thread.
Posted by: Anna Puma at April 21, 2026 02:22 PM (2GVsD)
18
For now, what would happen if Vance kinda leaned over the table and asked, "Does this have something to do with the Twelfth Imam? Satan, that sort of thing?"
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 02:21 PM (n7rxJ)
I would pay good money to see that.
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 02:21 PM (n7rxJ)
I would pay good money to see that.
Posted by: pookysgirl wants the negotiations to be PPV at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (Wt5PA)
19
Deal or no deal.
I'll pick brunette #27 in the short dress and high heels.
I'll pick brunette #27 in the short dress and high heels.
Posted by: wth at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (v0R5T)
20
I find it peculiar that the U.S. public opinion can have such an unpopular view over an Air war where there's negligile risk to U.S. service personnel. This is a world of difference to the Afghan and Iraq wars. Air wars like this basically are free shots against an enemy.
Posted by: Serious Cat at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (xqQi7)
Posted by: connected and litigious at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (cS1cw)
22
Oh well, I guess resume targeting key figures and start working on their bridges and power plants. That'll make Iran's situation pretty chaotic internally. If we need to leave in a few months, destroy their oil infrastructure. That ought to make any effort to rebuild their nuclear program impossible for some decades.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (okun6)
23
Iran has to be made an offer they can't refuse...time to start paring down the next levels of military and political leaders...
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at April 21, 2026 02:24 PM (ynpvh)
24
Posted by: Mr. Proton at April 21, 2026 02:21 PM (btBhz)
Got booted from Insty, eh? Well, we don't want you here either.
Got booted from Insty, eh? Well, we don't want you here either.
Posted by: pookysgirl, gesturing to the moose out front at April 21, 2026 02:24 PM (Wt5PA)
25
>>>Do you have a more optimistic take than I do?
You've been reading and writing about Tucker and that's bound to hurt your brain.
You've been reading and writing about Tucker and that's bound to hurt your brain.
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:25 PM (YbTYS)
26
Start the bombing, anew.
Keep the Blockade in place.
This will be over soon enough if you don't give in to the false sentiment in the media.
Keep the Blockade in place.
This will be over soon enough if you don't give in to the false sentiment in the media.
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 02:25 PM (ytyaf)
27
The USN Ford has moved from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea. The Bush is almost in the Gulf.
I think it's on like Donkey Kong. I do suspect the IRGC will say ok we are going just as the ceasefire expires. I'm mixed about this because I think it's a delay tactic, but never like knowing the innocents will die, especially with Iran just sending missiles every which way like an unmanned firehose.
I think it's on like Donkey Kong. I do suspect the IRGC will say ok we are going just as the ceasefire expires. I'm mixed about this because I think it's a delay tactic, but never like knowing the innocents will die, especially with Iran just sending missiles every which way like an unmanned firehose.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at April 21, 2026 02:25 PM (n5tGW)
Posted by: Amartel at April 21, 2026 02:26 PM (otvi3)
29
"You've been reading and writing about Tucker and that's bound to hurt your brain."
The abyss has stared back.
The abyss has stared back.
Posted by: connected and litigious at April 21, 2026 02:26 PM (cS1cw)
Posted by: Axeman at April 21, 2026 02:26 PM (Fi81e)
31
I like what I've heard called the " mow the lawn " strategy. We don't have to do anything immediately. We can come back anytime and do some more damage when necessary. They're not making any nukes or long-range missiles anytime soon.
Posted by: SSN 637, 686 at April 21, 2026 02:26 PM (2SkqL)
32
Trump can press his deal in his ass. He needs to finish them off and finish this bullshit once and for all. Leaving the smallest piece of Iran intact is just kicking the can down the road. Its definitely now a longer road, but its a still a road. He needs to break it off in their ass and make them extinct.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at April 21, 2026 02:27 PM (snZF9)
33
I think Iran misreads Trump and ace does too. It’s not that he’s not bullheaded that he’ll follow through, it’s because he knows he has to demonstrate he’s not bluffing. I expect a truncated bridge and power plant strike, not all of them (at first) but a significant demonstration.
Posted by: Farmer Bob at April 21, 2026 02:27 PM (tRlHM)
34
I would pay good money to see that.
Posted by: pookysgirl
===============
It might be risky for negotiations, but a reporter could always ask.
I would pay good money to see that.
Posted by: pookysgirl
===============
It might be risky for negotiations, but a reporter could always ask.
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 02:27 PM (n7rxJ)
35
If Iran loses all of their oil handling and exporting infrastructure it wont matter what they want to do.
Posted by: Kestrel.986 at April 21, 2026 02:27 PM (wyl5F)
36
I was told a story of what happened in China after the CCP took over...
The CCP lined up the entire family of the landowner, and starting at one end, asked where they were hiding their gold and other treasures. The first guy didn't talk, so they shot him dead. They asked the next guy, and he wouldn't talk, so they shot him dead too. Eventually they found someone who was willing to spill the beans.
Iran is the same thing. Keep killing their leaders until you find one willing to do what you want them to do.
The CCP lined up the entire family of the landowner, and starting at one end, asked where they were hiding their gold and other treasures. The first guy didn't talk, so they shot him dead. They asked the next guy, and he wouldn't talk, so they shot him dead too. Eventually they found someone who was willing to spill the beans.
Iran is the same thing. Keep killing their leaders until you find one willing to do what you want them to do.
Posted by: jim (in Kalifornia) at April 21, 2026 02:28 PM (ynpvh)
37
PDT announces one carrier battle group will remain to enforce the blockade.In addition, the Coasties are called in, putting them under Department of War and then being funded (see, a two fer). Then announces Operation Patience. Every night at 1905 Eastern he will draw a slip of paper from a fishbowl with The Target and the Buffs go in.
Posted by: bill in arkansas, not gonna comply with nuttin, waiting for the 0300 knock on the door at April 21, 2026 02:28 PM (gm9Sb)
38
>>Boots on the ground in Iran with Kurdish troops from the north and Iran will fold in weeks like Iraq
Tom Servo is right, but if the Kurds look like they are going to gain much control, and if it looks like they will declare an independent Kurdistan, the Turks will intervene.
Tom Servo is right, but if the Kurds look like they are going to gain much control, and if it looks like they will declare an independent Kurdistan, the Turks will intervene.
Posted by: Nazdar at April 21, 2026 02:28 PM (NcvvS)
39
I think one thing we have learned here is that the desire for regime change within Iran is not strong and deep enough to make it happen. I hope I'm wrong.
Posted by: Mark1971 at April 21, 2026 02:29 PM (CNl8/)
40
April bomb showers
bring May rubble
bring May rubble
Posted by: wth at April 21, 2026 02:29 PM (v0R5T)
41
>>>You've been reading and writing about Tucker and that's bound to hurt your brain.
I'm just looking at Trump, really. He's the one constantly talking about a deal, not Iran.
>>>I don't remember Trump campaigning on any of this. I must have missed that day.
You don't remember him saying "Iran must never be allowed to have a nuclear bomb" and ending Obama's give-Iran-a-nuke deal? Really? Do you not watch or read news?
I'm so tired of this. You people live in a thick ideological left-wing bubble that cannot be penetrated by a single fact.
I'm just looking at Trump, really. He's the one constantly talking about a deal, not Iran.
>>>I don't remember Trump campaigning on any of this. I must have missed that day.
You don't remember him saying "Iran must never be allowed to have a nuclear bomb" and ending Obama's give-Iran-a-nuke deal? Really? Do you not watch or read news?
I'm so tired of this. You people live in a thick ideological left-wing bubble that cannot be penetrated by a single fact.
Posted by: ace at April 21, 2026 02:29 PM (1wjle)
42
Back to basics, but I thought the blockade was going to bring Iran to its knees. Losses of $435mm/day if no oil gets out of its ports.
What happened to that?
Back to basics, but I thought the blockade was going to bring Iran to its knees. Losses of $435mm/day if no oil gets out of its ports.
What happened to that?
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 02:30 PM (n7rxJ)
43
That's ok Iranian negotiating team, stay home. We'll send you fruit baskets to your homes. Or jdammed 100lb bombs. It's all good
Posted by: Smell the Glove at April 21, 2026 02:30 PM (gu0hJ)
44
I don’t think Iran is capable of negotiating. One of the requirements for any negotiation is “good faith”. This is one of those times I wish the control conspiracies were correct and we could get another ME country to say they have had enough and have them be the ones arming the Iranians to take back their country or to escalate the war tactics. The fact we are not united and we have democrats giving legitimacy to opposing the war effort - not just a few lunatics - is really harming us here.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:30 PM (Wmg4n)
45
>>>35 If Iran loses all of their oil handling and exporting infrastructure it wont matter what they want to do.
yes I imagine that's right, but that would take at least a month or two, and Trump sure sounds like he's done and just wants Iran to "agree to a deal" so he can declare victory and go home.
yes I imagine that's right, but that would take at least a month or two, and Trump sure sounds like he's done and just wants Iran to "agree to a deal" so he can declare victory and go home.
Posted by: ace at April 21, 2026 02:31 PM (1wjle)
46
I see a lot of commenters not factoring in how soft the Us has become.
When the hammer falls, no one will be able to say credibly, "He didn't give them a chance for peace". We are not a rational nation anymore. "Forever War" uttered in the first three weeks.
When the hammer falls, no one will be able to say credibly, "He didn't give them a chance for peace". We are not a rational nation anymore. "Forever War" uttered in the first three weeks.
Posted by: connected and litigious at April 21, 2026 02:31 PM (cS1cw)
47
42
Back to basics, but I thought the blockade was going to bring Iran to its knees. Losses of $435mm/day if no oil gets out of its ports.
What happened to that?
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 02:30 PM (n7rxJ)
They are indeed cut off from most of their revenues. That's a slower collapse until soldiers stop getting paid however.
Back to basics, but I thought the blockade was going to bring Iran to its knees. Losses of $435mm/day if no oil gets out of its ports.
What happened to that?
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 02:30 PM (n7rxJ)
They are indeed cut off from most of their revenues. That's a slower collapse until soldiers stop getting paid however.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:31 PM (okun6)
48
44 I don’t think Iran is capable of negotiating. One of the requirements for any negotiation is “good faith”.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:30 PM (Wmg4n)
Is it, though? Ideally, but a "requirement"?
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:30 PM (Wmg4n)
Is it, though? Ideally, but a "requirement"?
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:32 PM (YbTYS)
49
>>Back to basics, but I thought the blockade was going to bring Iran to its knees. Losses of $435mm/day if no oil gets out of its ports.
>What happened to that?
It has been a week.
>What happened to that?
It has been a week.
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 02:33 PM (ytyaf)
50
That's ok Iranian negotiating team, stay home. We'll send you fruit baskets to your homes. Or jdammed 100lb bombs. It's all good
Posted by: Smell the Glove
.......
maybe some tuna cans in the fruit basket, too.
*grins*
Posted by: Smell the Glove
.......
maybe some tuna cans in the fruit basket, too.
*grins*
Posted by: wth at April 21, 2026 02:33 PM (v0R5T)
51
Has the Bat Signal been given to the unwashed masses to rise up, kill their religious overseers and open Wally Worlds and Taco Bells on every street corner and stop sheltering in place?
No, not in Iran, in New York City!
No, not in Iran, in New York City!
Posted by: Why We Fight 2026 at April 21, 2026 02:33 PM (79nfv)
52
The Iranians understand contracts. They just don't honor them.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:33 PM (4NO2D)
53
Every time Trump mentions an impending deal, he's pouring water into the fractures in Iranian Leadership (as it is).
Give it time, people.
Give it time, people.
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 02:34 PM (ytyaf)
54
>>Do you have a more optimistic take than I do?
I had a lot of optimism that this would be over quickly when the entire leadership structure of the regime was eliminated within 2 days of the war starting - but clearly the Iranians that want freedom were all massacred.
I'm not in favor of "nation building" again. I don't think it would necessarily be the same as it was in Iraq and Afghanistan but at this point I'm not willing to take that chance.
I also don't think the blockade will work long term. Supposedly 26 "ships" have already broken through the blockade but that wasn't verified.
We'll see what happens. I'm trying to suppress my own inner eeyore but alas, it's tough to really see how this turns out the way we want.
I had a lot of optimism that this would be over quickly when the entire leadership structure of the regime was eliminated within 2 days of the war starting - but clearly the Iranians that want freedom were all massacred.
I'm not in favor of "nation building" again. I don't think it would necessarily be the same as it was in Iraq and Afghanistan but at this point I'm not willing to take that chance.
I also don't think the blockade will work long term. Supposedly 26 "ships" have already broken through the blockade but that wasn't verified.
We'll see what happens. I'm trying to suppress my own inner eeyore but alas, it's tough to really see how this turns out the way we want.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:34 PM (WYStd)
55
Deal or no deal.
I'll pick brunette #27 in the short dress and high heels.
Posted by: wth at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (v0R5T)
That's the standard uniform on Deal or no Deal.
I'm surprised that no tubby-advocate group hasn't forced a few whales and uggos onto the podium. Mebbe a dude in a dress.
You just know all the lowest dollar amounts will be in the hands of the people nobody wants to pick.
I'll pick brunette #27 in the short dress and high heels.
Posted by: wth at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (v0R5T)
That's the standard uniform on Deal or no Deal.
I'm surprised that no tubby-advocate group hasn't forced a few whales and uggos onto the podium. Mebbe a dude in a dress.
You just know all the lowest dollar amounts will be in the hands of the people nobody wants to pick.
Posted by: OneEyedJack at April 21, 2026 02:34 PM (zafwz)
56
I will say it again:
I think the whole Iran conflict is a master class in how to deal with a borderline-personality disorder girlfriend.
I think the whole Iran conflict is a master class in how to deal with a borderline-personality disorder girlfriend.
Posted by: Kindltot at April 21, 2026 02:34 PM (rbvCR)
57
That's ok Iranian negotiating team, stay home. We'll send you fruit baskets to your homes. Or jdammed 100lb bombs. It's all good
Posted by: Smell the Glove
.......
maybe some tuna cans in the fruit basket, too.
*grins*
Posted by: wth at April 21, 2026 02:33 PM (v0R5T)
We have an assortment of quality gift baskets.
Posted by: Smell the Glove
.......
maybe some tuna cans in the fruit basket, too.
*grins*
Posted by: wth at April 21, 2026 02:33 PM (v0R5T)
We have an assortment of quality gift baskets.
Posted by: Ace Tomato Company at April 21, 2026 02:34 PM (wVcYX)
58
"Do you have a more optimistic take than I do?"
-------------
I do not.
I believe Iran thinks, with good reason, that they just have to hold on until either January of 2027 with a new, democrat led congress or at worst, January 2029 and the likelihood (in their opinion) that we'll have a democrat president who will go back to appeasement. Appeasement and kowtowing will continue at least until either Tel Aviv or an American city, or both, are incinerated. Even then, I don't think we'd dare respond in kind and risk a nuclear exchange with Iran's allies Russia or China.
Unless Trump can rip this out by the roots and salt the ground so it never takes hold again, we'll face the possibility of an American city being nuked by Iran.
-------------
I do not.
I believe Iran thinks, with good reason, that they just have to hold on until either January of 2027 with a new, democrat led congress or at worst, January 2029 and the likelihood (in their opinion) that we'll have a democrat president who will go back to appeasement. Appeasement and kowtowing will continue at least until either Tel Aviv or an American city, or both, are incinerated. Even then, I don't think we'd dare respond in kind and risk a nuclear exchange with Iran's allies Russia or China.
Unless Trump can rip this out by the roots and salt the ground so it never takes hold again, we'll face the possibility of an American city being nuked by Iran.
Posted by: Anonymous Rogue in Kalifornistan (ARiK) at April 21, 2026 02:35 PM (QGaXH)
59
Watching live Argentina's President Milei lighting a torch at Jerusalem's Mt. Herzl ceremony for the start of Israel's Independence Day celebrations.
What a pal! What a pal! What a pal!
What a pal! What a pal! What a pal!
Posted by: Biden's Dog sniffs a whole lotta malarkey, at April 21, 2026 02:35 PM (1o8D5)
60
Just making more and more extravagant threats isn't changing Iran's posture.
-
Yeah, at some point, you have to carry through on the threat, even if it makes you feel bad.
-
Yeah, at some point, you have to carry through on the threat, even if it makes you feel bad.
Posted by: Methos at April 21, 2026 02:35 PM (vSvIl)
Posted by: nurse ratched at April 21, 2026 02:35 PM (W2Pud)
62
I have a really, really bad feeling about this.
My negative Nancy side says that Trump was all bluster and just slinks away shouting that "We won!" Over Truth Social into the void. Regime in place, no deal and the Straight with a pittance of traffic moving through. Gas prices above 4 persist until the mid terms will mean we lose both houses and that's it. Trump will have lost all credibility on the global stage and will be finished at home.
Positive side says Trump goes for the jugular. Negotiations were theater to set up the big play. A massive sustained attack takes place. Israel moves to finish off Hezzy in S Lebanon and helps out over Iran....shattered totally, then we see what the IRGC thinks. This is the way, have to finish this or what was the point?
My negative Nancy side says that Trump was all bluster and just slinks away shouting that "We won!" Over Truth Social into the void. Regime in place, no deal and the Straight with a pittance of traffic moving through. Gas prices above 4 persist until the mid terms will mean we lose both houses and that's it. Trump will have lost all credibility on the global stage and will be finished at home.
Positive side says Trump goes for the jugular. Negotiations were theater to set up the big play. A massive sustained attack takes place. Israel moves to finish off Hezzy in S Lebanon and helps out over Iran....shattered totally, then we see what the IRGC thinks. This is the way, have to finish this or what was the point?
Posted by: GigantorX at April 21, 2026 02:35 PM (I5fLw)
63
I'm so tired of this. You people live in a thick ideological left-wing bubble that cannot be penetrated by a single fact.
Posted by: ace at April 21, 2026 02:29 PM (1wjle)
Ace, these are the same people who are so incredibly myopic, they translate America first to America Only. Like somehow we can put a big bubble over us and things that occur internationally will have zero effect or impact on us. As a double layer of security, we should dig a big hole and stick our head in it.
Posted by: ace at April 21, 2026 02:29 PM (1wjle)
Ace, these are the same people who are so incredibly myopic, they translate America first to America Only. Like somehow we can put a big bubble over us and things that occur internationally will have zero effect or impact on us. As a double layer of security, we should dig a big hole and stick our head in it.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:35 PM (OoFl2)
64
I'm of the opinion that Iran will absolutely not give its HEU. Push comes to shove, they'll lie about giving it up...but wont.
I'm afraid the only option is to go in and take it. That would mean high casualties.
I'm afraid the only option is to go in and take it. That would mean high casualties.
Posted by: WisRich at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (G0vdT)
65
20 I find it peculiar that the U.S. public opinion can have such an unpopular view over an Air war where there's negligile risk to U.S. service personnel. This is a world of difference to the Afghan and Iraq wars. Air wars like this basically are free shots against an enemy.
Posted by: Serious Cat at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (xqQi7)
The media.... It's all bad news all the time.. We're losing Iran is winning Not surprised people believe it...Gas is expensive !!!!!
Posted by: Serious Cat at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (xqQi7)
The media.... It's all bad news all the time.. We're losing Iran is winning Not surprised people believe it...Gas is expensive !!!!!
Posted by: It's me donna at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (K88SD)
66
Time to keep hitting yhem, and then continue to hit hem.
Posted by: AZ deplorable moron at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (YBtcQ)
67
Trump is under no real pressure to end this short of victory.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (4NO2D)
68
59 Watching live Argentina's President Milei lighting a torch at Jerusalem's Mt. Herzl ceremony for the start of Israel's Independence Day celebrations.
What a pal! What a pal! What a pal!
Posted by: Biden's Dog sniffs a whole lotta malarkey, at April 21, 2026 02:35 PM (1o8D5)
He proves he's a lapdog of the Jewish conspiracy to rule the world!
What a pal! What a pal! What a pal!
Posted by: Biden's Dog sniffs a whole lotta malarkey, at April 21, 2026 02:35 PM (1o8D5)
He proves he's a lapdog of the Jewish conspiracy to rule the world!
Posted by: Tuq'r Qatarson at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (ynpvh)
69
I also don't think the blockade will work long term. Supposedly 26 "ships" have already broken through the blockade but that wasn't verified.
We'll see what happens. I'm trying to suppress my own inner eeyore but alas, it's tough to really see how this turns out the way we want.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:34 PM (WYStd)
The US is not intercepting ships that are not traveling to or from Iran, the blockade is on Iran only. Nothing of significant size is capable of actually sneaking past a blockade.
We'll see what happens. I'm trying to suppress my own inner eeyore but alas, it's tough to really see how this turns out the way we want.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:34 PM (WYStd)
The US is not intercepting ships that are not traveling to or from Iran, the blockade is on Iran only. Nothing of significant size is capable of actually sneaking past a blockade.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (okun6)
70
I just assumed the Bridge and Power Plant stuff was misdirection. Tell them you'll hit power plants while hitting leadership, etc. Otherwise I expect human shields, voluntary or otherwise.
Posted by: Bilwis Devourer of Innocent Souls, I'm starvin' over here at April 21, 2026 02:37 PM (w/O5Q)
71
Someone tell DJT that sometimes, there just isn't a deal to be made.
He's going to have to follow through with his threats eventually, because at this point the IRGC is just sitting back and daring him to do it.
He's going to have to follow through with his threats eventually, because at this point the IRGC is just sitting back and daring him to do it.
Posted by: XTC at April 21, 2026 02:37 PM (iXqHn)
72
This is all just a distraction from the Epstein files.
Posted by: nurse ratched at April 21, 2026 02:37 PM (W2Pud)
73
except so far it looks like the 15 or however many different Kurdish groups would rather fight each other than fight Iran.
-
Iran is apparently worried enough that they've been droning some of the Kurds during the "ceasefire."
-
Iran is apparently worried enough that they've been droning some of the Kurds during the "ceasefire."
Posted by: Methos at April 21, 2026 02:37 PM (vSvIl)
74
That's a slower collapse until soldiers stop getting paid however.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:31 PM (okun6)
Assuming those soldiers fight because they're getting paid and not for a religious or nationalistic higher purpose.
There's more than one way to "pay" barbaric 7th century savages that doesn't involve currency.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:31 PM (okun6)
Assuming those soldiers fight because they're getting paid and not for a religious or nationalistic higher purpose.
There's more than one way to "pay" barbaric 7th century savages that doesn't involve currency.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:37 PM (WYStd)
75
Iran will head for the powder room and then march out the front door, leaving our "negotiators" sitting at the table.
Take out every road bridge, railroad bridge within 20 miles of the center of Tehran, and every single power plant. Let the Iranians figure it out.
If 72 hours passes by without a deal, do the same for Qom, Isfaharan, etc.
Take out every road bridge, railroad bridge within 20 miles of the center of Tehran, and every single power plant. Let the Iranians figure it out.
If 72 hours passes by without a deal, do the same for Qom, Isfaharan, etc.
Posted by: mrp at April 21, 2026 02:38 PM (rj6Yv)
76
What about the price of eggs?!
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:38 PM (4NO2D)
77
Hard to tell much for real, from my armchair. But it looks like Trump will continue heavy bombing of bridges and power stations, and various IRGC sites. That and the cutting off of ships (oil out, weapons and components in) should be a powerful blow.
The "Persians" protested but ultimately supported The Evil Regime for decades, so if they have it a little rough for a year or five, so be it. Once all the caves and tunnels are bombed shut or blown up, any ability to wage war will diminish greatly.
How actual Regime Change happens, idk. There are various alternate powers that be in Iran, and I can't figure out who is who in that crowd. Would be great if the key IRGC just took their gold and cash and ran away ... not sure where they'd go.
The "Persians" protested but ultimately supported The Evil Regime for decades, so if they have it a little rough for a year or five, so be it. Once all the caves and tunnels are bombed shut or blown up, any ability to wage war will diminish greatly.
How actual Regime Change happens, idk. There are various alternate powers that be in Iran, and I can't figure out who is who in that crowd. Would be great if the key IRGC just took their gold and cash and ran away ... not sure where they'd go.
Posted by: illiniwek at April 21, 2026 02:38 PM (vbXSk)
78
Ukraine says it is making 7 million drones in calendar 2026. Using layered drone networks with Starlink and AI they have been able to slow the Russian invasion to a very costly crawl.
Iranian drones and missiles have managed to do damage to some very, very expensive US systems. If nothing else I hope the Pentagon has awoken to the notion that "many and cheap" is something we need in addition to "few and expensive" on the modern battlefield, which is a lesson they should have been learning from the Ukraine battlefield.
Iran still has lots of drones and missiles protected in deep mountain bunkers. If they peek their noses out we can hit them, but not actually destroy all the bunkers.
I don't see how we accomplish what we need without real regime change from an uprising. Since the population is unarmed, what we need is a huge number of cheap drones to (1) take out the Basij and any regime resistance throughout the country and (2) control the missile and drone bunkers.
Iranian drones and missiles have managed to do damage to some very, very expensive US systems. If nothing else I hope the Pentagon has awoken to the notion that "many and cheap" is something we need in addition to "few and expensive" on the modern battlefield, which is a lesson they should have been learning from the Ukraine battlefield.
Iran still has lots of drones and missiles protected in deep mountain bunkers. If they peek their noses out we can hit them, but not actually destroy all the bunkers.
I don't see how we accomplish what we need without real regime change from an uprising. Since the population is unarmed, what we need is a huge number of cheap drones to (1) take out the Basij and any regime resistance throughout the country and (2) control the missile and drone bunkers.
Posted by: TITP at April 21, 2026 02:38 PM (r3hkP)
79
53 Every time Trump mentions an impending deal, he's pouring water into the fractures in Iranian Leadership (as it is).
Give it time, people.
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 02:34 PM (ytyaf)
Hoping you are right.
Give it time, people.
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 02:34 PM (ytyaf)
Hoping you are right.
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:38 PM (YbTYS)
80
I had this idea last night that I think may work, so I'm feeling more optimistic. If we have an EMP weapon, we could disable their power plants and bridges (some semis on the bridge and anyone who tries to remove them) without sending them back to the stone age where Iraq was in that debacle.
Posted by: Zach John Galt at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (CweWu)
81
If Trump doesn't follow through with bombing the shit out of their infrastructure it's going to affect his credibility everywhere. In order for the madman theory to work the madman has to appear every now and then.
Posted by: Mark1971 at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (CNl8/)
82
He proves he's a lapdog of the Jewish conspiracy to rule the world!
Posted by: Tuq'r Qatarson at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (ynpvh)
-
Still waiting for my monthly cabal check to come in the mail.
Posted by: Tuq'r Qatarson at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (ynpvh)
-
Still waiting for my monthly cabal check to come in the mail.
Posted by: Biden's Dog sniffs a whole lotta malarkey, at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (1o8D5)
83
You would think, after 90 years of evidence, it would be clear air power alone cannot win a war.
In no way diminishing what's been done...but where's the finisher?
In no way diminishing what's been done...but where's the finisher?
Posted by: Brother Tim (102mm/W59), Keeper of the Tim Continuum at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (OUMaO)
Posted by: rickb223 at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (8YpvS)
85
The Iranians in 2026 are like the Japanese in 1945. The "official" government wants peace but the armed forces (or the IRGC) wants to fight on.
The Iranians in 2026 are like the Japanese in 1945. The "official" government wants peace but the armed forces (or the IRGC) wants to fight on.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (tgvbd)
86
Is it, though? Ideally, but a "requirement"?
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02
Yes, it is. It is the tenant behind a negotiation- both sides want to get to an outcome. That outcome may be different and may require give and take, it in the end, when the agreement is there, both sides live by it - the good and the bad. Otherwise, how do you get there?
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02
Yes, it is. It is the tenant behind a negotiation- both sides want to get to an outcome. That outcome may be different and may require give and take, it in the end, when the agreement is there, both sides live by it - the good and the bad. Otherwise, how do you get there?
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (OoFl2)
Posted by: wth at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (v0R5T)
88
This war would be over in 15 minutes if we bombed the NYT and Washington Post instead of Tehran.
Posted by: iamnotthekenyaninterloper at April 21, 2026 02:40 PM (y9skt)
89
No.
Posted by: M Gaga at April 21, 2026 02:40 PM (zRgvQ)
90
The US is not intercepting ships that are not traveling to or from Iran, the blockade is on Iran only. Nothing of significant size is capable of actually sneaking past a blockade.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (okun6)
I understand that we're not stopping all ships, but apparently these "ships" made it through to or from Iranian ports.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (okun6)
I understand that we're not stopping all ships, but apparently these "ships" made it through to or from Iranian ports.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:40 PM (WYStd)
91
If nothing else I hope the Pentagon has awoken to the notion that "many and cheap" is something we need in addition to "few and expensive" on the modern battlefield, which is a lesson they should have been learning from the Ukraine battlefield.
"Many and cheap" doesn't get the brass cushy board seats after retirement. "Few and expensive" does.
"Many and cheap" doesn't get the brass cushy board seats after retirement. "Few and expensive" does.
Posted by: Brother Tim (102mm/W59), Keeper of the Tim Continuum at April 21, 2026 02:41 PM (OUMaO)
92
These are death-cult folks. They'll take the hit.
They want to go back to the 8yh century. Its not a big deal to them.
And I would imagine Kargh Island is mined to the hilt with explosives.
When 1 USD equals 42,000 Iranian Rials, economics is no longer relevant to those in charge.
They ain't gonna die because they have the guns and they ain't gonna starve because they have the guns.
They want to go back to the 8yh century. Its not a big deal to them.
And I would imagine Kargh Island is mined to the hilt with explosives.
When 1 USD equals 42,000 Iranian Rials, economics is no longer relevant to those in charge.
They ain't gonna die because they have the guns and they ain't gonna starve because they have the guns.
Posted by: Steve_in_SoCal at April 21, 2026 02:41 PM (LyPw2)
93
81 If Trump doesn't follow through with bombing the shit out of their infrastructure it's going to affect his credibility everywhere. In order for the madman theory to work the madman has to appear every now and then.
Posted by: Mark1971 at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (CNl8/)
----------
At least he's been building up our military presence during the ceasefire. We'll have three carrier groups on location when/if the shooting resumes.
Posted by: Mark1971 at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (CNl8/)
----------
At least he's been building up our military presence during the ceasefire. We'll have three carrier groups on location when/if the shooting resumes.
Posted by: WisRich at April 21, 2026 02:41 PM (G0vdT)
94
>>Do you have a more optimistic take than I do?
The whole strategy and maneuver of this conflict makes me think there are some very twisty minds doing the planning, and are happy to make the various remnants of the "mosaic defense" start fighting.
Iran was known to be deeply "siloed" and this was seen as their greatest strength since if you broke one cell, the others could continue to fight on - Unlike the top down Bolivarian structure in Venezuela. We seem to have destroyed the coordination between the heads of each cell (thanks to the Israelis' intel) and since the only coordination came from the trust between the heads, the ability to coordinate is also borked.
It is going to be a waiting game punctuated by nasty shocks to see if the IRGC runs out of money, the Iranians run out of patience for failure, or the US Midterms demand a resolution.
The whole strategy and maneuver of this conflict makes me think there are some very twisty minds doing the planning, and are happy to make the various remnants of the "mosaic defense" start fighting.
Iran was known to be deeply "siloed" and this was seen as their greatest strength since if you broke one cell, the others could continue to fight on - Unlike the top down Bolivarian structure in Venezuela. We seem to have destroyed the coordination between the heads of each cell (thanks to the Israelis' intel) and since the only coordination came from the trust between the heads, the ability to coordinate is also borked.
It is going to be a waiting game punctuated by nasty shocks to see if the IRGC runs out of money, the Iranians run out of patience for failure, or the US Midterms demand a resolution.
Posted by: Kindltot at April 21, 2026 02:42 PM (rbvCR)
95
Of course.
But after all, who's in charge? Really. And so it looks like they've taken a tip from the Autopen POTato administration.
>Sunday, Apr 19, 2026, 'What it would take for the U.S. to secure Iran's highly enriched uranium | 60 Minutes (YouTube)
The fate of the Iran war centers on highly enriched uranium, an essential ingredient for nuclear weapons. A post-Soviet-era operation that could inform a U.S. recovery mission in Iran.
But after all, who's in charge? Really. And so it looks like they've taken a tip from the Autopen POTato administration.
>Sunday, Apr 19, 2026, 'What it would take for the U.S. to secure Iran's highly enriched uranium | 60 Minutes (YouTube)
The fate of the Iran war centers on highly enriched uranium, an essential ingredient for nuclear weapons. A post-Soviet-era operation that could inform a U.S. recovery mission in Iran.
Posted by: L - No nic, another fine day at April 21, 2026 02:42 PM (NFX2v)
96
90 The US is not intercepting ships that are not traveling to or from Iran, the blockade is on Iran only. Nothing of significant size is capable of actually sneaking past a blockade.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (okun6)
I understand that we're not stopping all ships, but apparently these "ships" made it through to or from Iranian ports.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:40 PM (WYStd)
I'd question the reporting, cargo ships are large and slow.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (okun6)
I understand that we're not stopping all ships, but apparently these "ships" made it through to or from Iranian ports.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:40 PM (WYStd)
I'd question the reporting, cargo ships are large and slow.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:42 PM (okun6)
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 02:42 PM (tgvbd)
98
Ace, I think your take on the negotiations is rational, but I think you are unduly pessimistic, especially since the Mullahs and the IRGC have never dealt with any Western power that followed through on threats of violence. They have always been able to delay and bullsh*t around until they got what they wanted. But not this time.
The chaos is in their minds as well as in Trump's behavior.
The chaos is in their minds as well as in Trump's behavior.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at April 21, 2026 02:42 PM (n9ltV)
99
Trump is under no real pressure to end this short of victory.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (4NO2D)
---
Except at least a Continuation resolution from Congress in 7 days, when the 60 days is up.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (4NO2D)
---
Except at least a Continuation resolution from Congress in 7 days, when the 60 days is up.
Posted by: Axeman at April 21, 2026 02:42 PM (Fi81e)
100
Well. The blockade just went long term. VERY long term.
Lady Graham is having warmonger fever dreams contemplating all the possibilities for armed confrontation
Lady Graham is having warmonger fever dreams contemplating all the possibilities for armed confrontation
Posted by: Beyond Norman Parameters at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM (DlgFG)
101
***Trump to just walk away from the war without actually forcing them to come to terms or to abandon power.
And they're probably right, unfortunately.
---
Or just the opposite.
People will see that Trump has gone the extra mile Islamists continue to murder their citizens. When Trump makes his case to the American public rancid, murderous, Islam will have no leg to stand on.
And they're probably right, unfortunately.
---
Or just the opposite.
People will see that Trump has gone the extra mile Islamists continue to murder their citizens. When Trump makes his case to the American public rancid, murderous, Islam will have no leg to stand on.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM (YvvFZ)
102
Here's my optimistic take:
Yes, one needs boots on the ground to win a war. But they don't need to be American boots.
Estimates are that up to 70% of the iranian population hates the Mullahs and wants them booted out, especially with the younger/college-age generation, where anti-theocracy sentiment is closer nton 80%-90%. That's a LOT of potential "resistance fighters" ready to get violent to overthrow the mullahs.
'But for some reason, aside from a few scattered reports, there still is no mass uprising.
I can only assume that Team Trump is in communication with some of the "leaders" of the "resistance," and that at some point, he's gong to say "It's Go Time" -- that a massive U.S. aerial campaign will coincide with a massive armed uprising internally. And I assume that the U.S. and Israelis are helping to arm the rebels.
It might be bloody, and it might take linger than we;'d want, but I still think the mullahs will be overthrown before trump's term is out, with minimal to zero U.S. fatalities.
Yes, one needs boots on the ground to win a war. But they don't need to be American boots.
Estimates are that up to 70% of the iranian population hates the Mullahs and wants them booted out, especially with the younger/college-age generation, where anti-theocracy sentiment is closer nton 80%-90%. That's a LOT of potential "resistance fighters" ready to get violent to overthrow the mullahs.
'But for some reason, aside from a few scattered reports, there still is no mass uprising.
I can only assume that Team Trump is in communication with some of the "leaders" of the "resistance," and that at some point, he's gong to say "It's Go Time" -- that a massive U.S. aerial campaign will coincide with a massive armed uprising internally. And I assume that the U.S. and Israelis are helping to arm the rebels.
It might be bloody, and it might take linger than we;'d want, but I still think the mullahs will be overthrown before trump's term is out, with minimal to zero U.S. fatalities.
Posted by: zombie at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM (Av6i5)
103
A nationally known activist who has worked with some of the biggest names in Democrat politics has experienced a horror no human being should have to endure and is now merely fighting to survive.
As KABC reported, a mother was killed and her daughter was injured following a stabbing attack inside a Burbank, California home.
... didn't Gavin Newsom require registration of all knives ?
The legislature will now probably ban all forks, except for The French Laundry
As KABC reported, a mother was killed and her daughter was injured following a stabbing attack inside a Burbank, California home.
... didn't Gavin Newsom require registration of all knives ?
The legislature will now probably ban all forks, except for The French Laundry
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM (RHGPo)
104
I believe the 26 ships has been debunked as Iranian propaganda
Posted by: Farmer Bob at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM (tRlHM)
105
86 Is it, though? Ideally, but a "requirement"?
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02
Yes, it is. It is the tenant behind a negotiation- both sides want to get to an outcome. That outcome may be different and may require give and take, it in the end, when the agreement is there, both sides live by it - the good and the bad. Otherwise, how do you get there?
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (OoFl2)
With settlements imposed by outside parties, like the Nuremberg Committee?
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02
Yes, it is. It is the tenant behind a negotiation- both sides want to get to an outcome. That outcome may be different and may require give and take, it in the end, when the agreement is there, both sides live by it - the good and the bad. Otherwise, how do you get there?
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:39 PM (OoFl2)
With settlements imposed by outside parties, like the Nuremberg Committee?
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM (YbTYS)
106
My opinion is it's a no win situation, walk away and declare victory. What possible incentive do these people have to offer an unconditional surrender? power plants getting blown up? You're not dealing with rational people here.
Maybe the cowardly Iranian men will finally overthrow the regime themselves, but I doubt it.
I dont want a multi-trillion dollar war here, I'm still sour about Iraq and Trump will not fare well in a conflict like that.
I dont know what to do about Hormuz, rest of the world seems eager to pay it and think Iran deserves the tribute.
Maybe the cowardly Iranian men will finally overthrow the regime themselves, but I doubt it.
I dont want a multi-trillion dollar war here, I'm still sour about Iraq and Trump will not fare well in a conflict like that.
I dont know what to do about Hormuz, rest of the world seems eager to pay it and think Iran deserves the tribute.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (eIzlH)
107
>> And they're probably right, unfortunately.
Iranian leadership if fractured. Civilians want a deal. IRGC has the guns. IRGC is about to have less guns, and less people including their leader.
CiNC has tried to exploit that gap without firing a shot. That’s just not possible while the military leadership remains in place.
Iranian leadership if fractured. Civilians want a deal. IRGC has the guns. IRGC is about to have less guns, and less people including their leader.
CiNC has tried to exploit that gap without firing a shot. That’s just not possible while the military leadership remains in place.
Posted by: Marcus T at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (IfQzb)
108
There is only one way to deal with fanatics, kick the ever loving $hit out of them and make them cry uncle. A lesson we seem to have forgotten from fighting the Japanese in the Pacific in WWII.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (0N4FZ)
109
There's more than one way to "pay" barbaric 7th century savages that doesn't involve currency.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:37 PM (WYStd)
We know.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:37 PM (WYStd)
We know.
Posted by: Goats who shouldn't be wearing lipstick at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (zafwz)
110
Ace, don't agree with me...
Trump has to make them want a deal. Right now, the Iranians in charge don't. So, he needs to figure out what will make them want that.
Or the Iranian people need to rise up and say no more.
Trump was hoping #2 would happen by now. It hasn't. And he still can't find the answer on #1.
Trump has to make them want a deal. Right now, the Iranians in charge don't. So, he needs to figure out what will make them want that.
Or the Iranian people need to rise up and say no more.
Trump was hoping #2 would happen by now. It hasn't. And he still can't find the answer on #1.
Posted by: Nova Local at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (tOcjL)
111
92 These are death-cult folks. They'll take the hit.
They want to go back to the 8yh century. Its not a big deal to them.
And I would imagine Kargh Island is mined to the hilt with explosives.
When 1 USD equals 42,000 Iranian Rials, economics is no longer relevant to those in charge.
They ain't gonna die because they have the guns and they ain't gonna starve because they have the guns.
Posted by: Steve_in_SoCal at April 21, 2026 02:41 PM (LyPw2)
Iran depends on food for imports. Unless they're hiding out in rural areas, cutting their logistics becomes a problem for them in a couple months.
They want to go back to the 8yh century. Its not a big deal to them.
And I would imagine Kargh Island is mined to the hilt with explosives.
When 1 USD equals 42,000 Iranian Rials, economics is no longer relevant to those in charge.
They ain't gonna die because they have the guns and they ain't gonna starve because they have the guns.
Posted by: Steve_in_SoCal at April 21, 2026 02:41 PM (LyPw2)
Iran depends on food for imports. Unless they're hiding out in rural areas, cutting their logistics becomes a problem for them in a couple months.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:45 PM (okun6)
112
The Kurds blew their opportunity to help and seem content to sit back and let the US degrade Iran as much as possible before acting in their own interests. The Iranian people are basically helpless and relying on Twitter influencers.
I think the two week pause was a minor error but doesn’t change the fact that we can’t kill enough bad guys from the air.
There is one operation that is possible. Send in the marines to get the nuclear dust. Risky. But with air cover and no other signs of invasion, they may just let us do it. Win win. Trump claims a legitimate W. Objectives met. See you in 10 years.
I think the two week pause was a minor error but doesn’t change the fact that we can’t kill enough bad guys from the air.
There is one operation that is possible. Send in the marines to get the nuclear dust. Risky. But with air cover and no other signs of invasion, they may just let us do it. Win win. Trump claims a legitimate W. Objectives met. See you in 10 years.
Posted by: Rando Calrissian at April 21, 2026 02:45 PM (EQ65/)
113
The bad - I'm starting to think that Trump's threat to blow up bridges and power stations was always just a big bluff.
Posted by: Tom Servo at April 21, 2026 02:19 PM (rGqqI)
Trump can't afford to bluff, not now. He needs to hit the infrastructure, wipe out what remains of their armed forces, and continue eliminating their leadership on a catch-as-catch-can basis to keep them afraid for their personal safety, and arm Iran's people. None of this will work without a viable homegrown resistance to the regime.
Posted by: Tom Servo at April 21, 2026 02:19 PM (rGqqI)
Trump can't afford to bluff, not now. He needs to hit the infrastructure, wipe out what remains of their armed forces, and continue eliminating their leadership on a catch-as-catch-can basis to keep them afraid for their personal safety, and arm Iran's people. None of this will work without a viable homegrown resistance to the regime.
Posted by: troyriser at April 21, 2026 02:45 PM (DPeYO)
114
70 I just assumed the Bridge and Power Plant stuff was misdirection. Tell them you'll hit power plants while hitting leadership, etc. Otherwise I expect human shields, voluntary or otherwise.
Posted by: Bilwis Devourer of Innocent Souls, I'm starvin' over here at April 21, 2026 02:37 PM (w/O5Q)
A question that's been on my mind regarding bombing bridges and power plants - why not avoid hitting the actual plant or bridge and just destroy the roads and transmission lines connecting them to the outside? Yes - they can easily be rebuilt - but I believe we can easily keep that from happening until we say it's ok.
Posted by: Bilwis Devourer of Innocent Souls, I'm starvin' over here at April 21, 2026 02:37 PM (w/O5Q)
A question that's been on my mind regarding bombing bridges and power plants - why not avoid hitting the actual plant or bridge and just destroy the roads and transmission lines connecting them to the outside? Yes - they can easily be rebuilt - but I believe we can easily keep that from happening until we say it's ok.
Posted by: Anonymous Rogue in Kalifornistan (ARiK) at April 21, 2026 02:45 PM (QGaXH)
115
>>>Trump has warned that "lots of bombs" will "start going off"
---
And maintain that siege line.
Extend the siege, no trains, planes or trucks.
---
And maintain that siege line.
Extend the siege, no trains, planes or trucks.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 02:45 PM (YvvFZ)
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 02:45 PM (tgvbd)
117
the armed forces (or the IRGC) wants to fight on.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh
---------
Agree. The IRGC is layered into the economy - construction, energy, telco, etc. Not just a fighting force. They have a level of financial independence from the State.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh
---------
Agree. The IRGC is layered into the economy - construction, energy, telco, etc. Not just a fighting force. They have a level of financial independence from the State.
Posted by: scampydog at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (2bFN5)
118
104 I believe the 26 ships has been debunked as Iranian propaganda
Posted by: Farmer Bob at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM (tRlHM)
Bonchie
@bonchieredstate
54m
Ships are not “blowing past the US blockade,” Adam. That’s already been debunked.
Posted by: Farmer Bob at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM (tRlHM)
Bonchie
@bonchieredstate
54m
Ships are not “blowing past the US blockade,” Adam. That’s already been debunked.
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (YbTYS)
119
90 The US is not intercepting ships that are not traveling to or from Iran, the blockade is on Iran only. Nothing of significant size is capable of actually sneaking past a blockade.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (okun6)
I understand that we're not stopping all ships, but apparently these "ships" made it through to or from Iranian ports.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:40 PM (WYStd)
I'd question the reporting, cargo ships are large and slow.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:42 PM (okun6)
Yeah… this is the US Navy we’re talking about. No way in hell that any cargo ships are getting through unless we allow it. And we’re not allowing ships in or out of Iranian ports. They’re squeezed
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:36 PM (okun6)
I understand that we're not stopping all ships, but apparently these "ships" made it through to or from Iranian ports.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:40 PM (WYStd)
I'd question the reporting, cargo ships are large and slow.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:42 PM (okun6)
Yeah… this is the US Navy we’re talking about. No way in hell that any cargo ships are getting through unless we allow it. And we’re not allowing ships in or out of Iranian ports. They’re squeezed
Posted by: LinusVanPelt at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (xT8gx)
120
Pakistan city hierarchy in descending order:
Jalalabad
Islamabad
Superstinkybad
Reallyreallybad
Ohmygoditsbad
Jalalabad
Islamabad
Superstinkybad
Reallyreallybad
Ohmygoditsbad
Posted by: Quarter Twenty at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (2Ez/1)
121
BREAKING: An illegal alien in Virginia, who sexuaIIy assauIted 9 HIGH SCHOOL GIRLS by groping them in the school hallways, has been sentenced to ONLY 180 DAYS in jail
This is INSANE. That's under 20 DAYS per girl he groped
ICE needs to grab him OUTSIDE THE JAIL and DEPORT HIM
This is INSANE. That's under 20 DAYS per girl he groped
ICE needs to grab him OUTSIDE THE JAIL and DEPORT HIM
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (RHGPo)
122
110 Ace, don't agree with me...
Trump has to make them want a deal. Right now, the Iranians in charge don't. So, he needs to figure out what will make them want that.
Or the Iranian people need to rise up and say no more.
Trump was hoping #2 would happen by now. It hasn't. And he still can't find the answer on #1.
Posted by: Nova Local at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (tOcjL)
If our goal is merely to stop their nuclear program, maintaining the blockade or destroying their oil infrastructure would be sufficient. The US does not actually need a deal or for Iran to be a functioning country on the other side of this to achieve its objectives.
Trump has to make them want a deal. Right now, the Iranians in charge don't. So, he needs to figure out what will make them want that.
Or the Iranian people need to rise up and say no more.
Trump was hoping #2 would happen by now. It hasn't. And he still can't find the answer on #1.
Posted by: Nova Local at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (tOcjL)
If our goal is merely to stop their nuclear program, maintaining the blockade or destroying their oil infrastructure would be sufficient. The US does not actually need a deal or for Iran to be a functioning country on the other side of this to achieve its objectives.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (okun6)
123
>> I understand that we're not stopping all ships, but apparently these "ships" made it through to or from Iranian ports.
Absolute, Unmitigated bullshit.
Absolute, Unmitigated bullshit.
Posted by: Marcus T at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (IfQzb)
124
Iranian State TV has just announced that Chris Murphy has surrendered Connecticut to the IRGC.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (03/BH)
125
ICE needs to grab him OUTSIDE THE JAIL and DEPORT HIM
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (RHGPo)
It's Virginia... Not gonna happen...
ICE needs to grab him OUTSIDE THE JAIL and DEPORT HIM
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (RHGPo)
It's Virginia... Not gonna happen...
Posted by: It's me donna at April 21, 2026 02:47 PM (K88SD)
126
I've feared from the start that there is just no way to truly win a war without some ground component -- you have to literally blow their heads off and hang them from street-lamps -- and without an armed civilian overthrow, I'm thinking this war ends in a stalemate. Lots of damage inflicted on the mullocracy -- but the mullahs left in place to rebuild.
From the beginnings of Air Power, this has been the dilemma. Air power alone won't win a war, no matter what Douhet and every other air power theorist thought.
Ironically, we're probably closer to that total Air dominance paradigm now than we've ever been in history. The way to win is to keep shooting the IRGC and mullahs in the face with bombs and drones so that the Persian people can become the ground troops who defeat the mohammedan fanatics. It's still a gamble though.
I've feared from the start that there is just no way to truly win a war without some ground component -- you have to literally blow their heads off and hang them from street-lamps -- and without an armed civilian overthrow, I'm thinking this war ends in a stalemate. Lots of damage inflicted on the mullocracy -- but the mullahs left in place to rebuild.
From the beginnings of Air Power, this has been the dilemma. Air power alone won't win a war, no matter what Douhet and every other air power theorist thought.
Ironically, we're probably closer to that total Air dominance paradigm now than we've ever been in history. The way to win is to keep shooting the IRGC and mullahs in the face with bombs and drones so that the Persian people can become the ground troops who defeat the mohammedan fanatics. It's still a gamble though.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at April 21, 2026 02:47 PM (y9nCu)
127
Also note what I call The Paper Tiger Effect.
The power and efficacy of foreign rpressive militaries is often vastly over-stated and over-estimated. The SEEM brutal and in-control, until suddenly their grip is broken and the world sees just how lame, pitiful and incompetent the bad guys were all along.
Remember how Saddam Hussein's military was dubbed "the most powerful in the Middle East," until they collapsed within 48 hours? Yeah, that. ame has been true in conflicts and revolutions through history. And I think think it's true of the IRGC -- they're just paper tigers.
The power and efficacy of foreign rpressive militaries is often vastly over-stated and over-estimated. The SEEM brutal and in-control, until suddenly their grip is broken and the world sees just how lame, pitiful and incompetent the bad guys were all along.
Remember how Saddam Hussein's military was dubbed "the most powerful in the Middle East," until they collapsed within 48 hours? Yeah, that. ame has been true in conflicts and revolutions through history. And I think think it's true of the IRGC -- they're just paper tigers.
Posted by: zombie at April 21, 2026 02:47 PM (Av6i5)
128
Oh, and the next time Iran pleas for negotiations, tell them we will meet them in Iceland.
Posted by: mrp at April 21, 2026 02:47 PM (rj6Yv)
129
Iranian State TV has just announced that Chris Murphy has surrendered Connecticut to the IRGC.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (03/BH)
_________
Can they take Massachusetts too?
Iranian State TV has just announced that Chris Murphy has surrendered Connecticut to the IRGC.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (03/BH)
_________
Can they take Massachusetts too?
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (tgvbd)
130
With settlements imposed by outside parties, like the Nuremberg Committee?
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM
That was after a surrender.
With settlements imposed by outside parties, like the Nuremberg Committee?
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM
That was after a surrender.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (Wmg4n)
131
Vance's Pakistan Trip 'On Hold' After Iran Demands Lifting Blockade Of Its Ports, Talks Appear Off
Islamabad meanwhile urges 2-week extension of ceasefire
Islamabad meanwhile urges 2-week extension of ceasefire
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (RHGPo)
132
>>>Do you have a more optimistic take than I do?
How many of the steps taken have been predicted to date? From my perspective, very few, with little specificity. Point being that right now we have options limited only by public. Many options we probably haven't considered, too. I don't know what Trump and DoW have in store, but I expect them to be novel and largely unanticipated.
How many of the steps taken have been predicted to date? From my perspective, very few, with little specificity. Point being that right now we have options limited only by public. Many options we probably haven't considered, too. I don't know what Trump and DoW have in store, but I expect them to be novel and largely unanticipated.
Posted by: Comrade Flounder, Disinformation Demon at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (6Qbda)
133
I'm going to wait to set my hair on fire.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (4NO2D)
134
Bonchie retweeted
Mark Dubowitz
@mdubowitz
5h
The making of an Iranian info op. Ali Vaez—widely seen as close to the regime (semafor.com/article/02/02/20…
—pushes Iranian propaganda claiming 26 ships from Iran’s shadow fleet slipped past U.S. enforcement (the fleet helps fund Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas—terror groups that have killed and injured Americans).
Then Senator Chris Murphy calls it “awesome.”
Mark Dubowitz
@mdubowitz
5h
The making of an Iranian info op. Ali Vaez—widely seen as close to the regime (semafor.com/article/02/02/20…
—pushes Iranian propaganda claiming 26 ships from Iran’s shadow fleet slipped past U.S. enforcement (the fleet helps fund Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas—terror groups that have killed and injured Americans).
Then Senator Chris Murphy calls it “awesome.”
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (YbTYS)
135
The war is already won. Now we are just negotiating over terms for what comes after. It takes very little effort or resources to just blockade them until they are effectively the Houthis, and we can do that indefinitely.
The Arabs are already establishing other ways to get their oil out without needing the strait so each day that passes Iran gets weaker and the US gets stronger. There is no reason to short circuit this process. Iran not negotiating is to our advantage. The longer they are intransigent the better because it does not change the end game.
The Arabs are already establishing other ways to get their oil out without needing the strait so each day that passes Iran gets weaker and the US gets stronger. There is no reason to short circuit this process. Iran not negotiating is to our advantage. The longer they are intransigent the better because it does not change the end game.
Posted by: Thatch at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (i0077)
136
Here's the deal.
WWII was played out as 'War is Hell'. Civilian casualties were an acceptable collateral damage. Hitler exceeded that with V-2 rockets striking London indiscriminately as a terrorist act. The allied forces bombing Dresden (civilians be damned), was to dismantle German rail logistics and show to Russia that we could soften resistance to Eastern attack. That was the fundamental inception point that caused Germany to sue for peace.
We, America do not encroach on civilian survivability. That is why how opponents exploit us. They do not give a rip about their own civilians. They use them as shields. That is why we have 10 year wars with a stale mate.
War is Hell. Either you fully commit, or you lose!
It's the same in sports. You don't give your opponent a break.
WWII was played out as 'War is Hell'. Civilian casualties were an acceptable collateral damage. Hitler exceeded that with V-2 rockets striking London indiscriminately as a terrorist act. The allied forces bombing Dresden (civilians be damned), was to dismantle German rail logistics and show to Russia that we could soften resistance to Eastern attack. That was the fundamental inception point that caused Germany to sue for peace.
We, America do not encroach on civilian survivability. That is why how opponents exploit us. They do not give a rip about their own civilians. They use them as shields. That is why we have 10 year wars with a stale mate.
War is Hell. Either you fully commit, or you lose!
It's the same in sports. You don't give your opponent a break.
Posted by: John at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (0DsdP)
137
No Protection From Gulf Shock: World's Biggest Condom Maker Warns Of Price Hikes
"The supply shock is transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude..."
"The supply shock is transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude..."
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (RHGPo)
138
Heres is what I heard competent person say regarding the Iran situation, the blockade is successful, economic pressure is enormous, and if it goes on for some more weeks, the internal changes in Iran will become irreversible. CRACK! so we shall see...There is a reason Trump says that he likes his negotiating position. If the ceasefire is over, kinetic and economic pressure will continue, a few bridges will go up in smoke and the irreversible changes will take...not so long. If the (fake) negotiations continue, the economic blockade will still go on, and those changes will still take place. Iran is begging for the blockade to be lifted. That is why the US team is still in the US, since it has become the pre-condition to resuming. Iran totally forgot about Lebanon, lol. They have no cards, as Trump says.
Posted by: runner at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (GD0B3)
139
They want to keep their nuclear program and missiles and remain in power. Trump wants them to want a deal, but they do not.
Because it's not up to them.
Because it's not up to them.
Posted by: t-bird at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (vj4lu)
140
92 These are death-cult folks. They'll take the hit.
They want to go back to the 8yh century. Its not a big deal to them.
And I would imagine Kargh Island is mined to the hilt with explosives.
When 1 USD equals 42,000 Iranian Rials, economics is no longer relevant to those in charge.
They ain't gonna die because they have the guns and they ain't gonna starve because they have the guns.
Posted by: Steve_in_SoCal
========
Easy enough. Blow up Kharg Island oil exporting facilities. That pretty much ends Iran being able to export oil which directly hits the regime in finances but leaves the power on for Iranians for now.
They want to go back to the 8yh century. Its not a big deal to them.
And I would imagine Kargh Island is mined to the hilt with explosives.
When 1 USD equals 42,000 Iranian Rials, economics is no longer relevant to those in charge.
They ain't gonna die because they have the guns and they ain't gonna starve because they have the guns.
Posted by: Steve_in_SoCal
========
Easy enough. Blow up Kharg Island oil exporting facilities. That pretty much ends Iran being able to export oil which directly hits the regime in finances but leaves the power on for Iranians for now.
Posted by: whig at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (E4rtv)
141
130 With settlements imposed by outside parties, like the Nuremberg Committee?
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM
That was after a surrender.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (Wmg4n)
Yes.
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:43 PM
That was after a surrender.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (Wmg4n)
Yes.
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (YbTYS)
142
Reward for a criminal on the run.
https://tinyurl.com/yc8d2j7b
-
Just bait a trap with Snickers bars.
https://tinyurl.com/yc8d2j7b
-
Just bait a trap with Snickers bars.
Posted by: Anonosaurus Wrecks, Damn It Feels Good to Be a Trumpster! at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (ndZc7)
143
We're in a strange world where decisively winning a war doesn't seem to be possible anymore.
The United States has technological prowess generations beyond anything any other nation can produce. But we do not have the willpower to use it to its maximum effect (wiping out entire populations because we can).
On the other hand, the Iranians have NO PROBLEM wiping out entire countries, but they lack the technology to do it.
It's a very odd situation.
The United States has technological prowess generations beyond anything any other nation can produce. But we do not have the willpower to use it to its maximum effect (wiping out entire populations because we can).
On the other hand, the Iranians have NO PROBLEM wiping out entire countries, but they lack the technology to do it.
It's a very odd situation.
Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at April 21, 2026 02:50 PM (gnNyN)
144
135 The war is already won. Now we are just negotiating over terms for what comes after. It takes very little effort or resources to just blockade them until they are effectively the Houthis, and we can do that indefinitely.
The Arabs are already establishing other ways to get their oil out without needing the strait so each day that passes Iran gets weaker and the US gets stronger. There is no reason to short circuit this process. Iran not negotiating is to our advantage. The longer they are intransigent the better because it does not change the end game.
Posted by: Thatch at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (i0077)
------------
The war is not won until the HEU is out of country.
The Arabs are already establishing other ways to get their oil out without needing the strait so each day that passes Iran gets weaker and the US gets stronger. There is no reason to short circuit this process. Iran not negotiating is to our advantage. The longer they are intransigent the better because it does not change the end game.
Posted by: Thatch at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (i0077)
------------
The war is not won until the HEU is out of country.
Posted by: WisRich at April 21, 2026 02:50 PM (G0vdT)
145
Last I heard, Persians have evacuating from Teheran since Saturday.
Posted by: mrp at April 21, 2026 02:50 PM (rj6Yv)
146
From the beginnings of Air Power, this has been the dilemma. Air power alone won't win a war, no matter what Douhet and every other air power theorist thought.
Ironically, we're probably closer to that total Air dominance paradigm now than we've ever been in history. The way to win is to keep shooting the IRGC and mullahs in the face with bombs and drones so that the Persian people can become the ground troops who defeat the mohammedan fanatics. It's still a gamble though.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at April 21, 2026 02:47 PM (y9nCu)
Has everyone forgotten…. Air power alone forced the Japanese surrender in WW II. A few nukes was all it took… no boots on the ground to take the sacred home island. That’s a pretty significant exception to the well known rule….
Ironically, we're probably closer to that total Air dominance paradigm now than we've ever been in history. The way to win is to keep shooting the IRGC and mullahs in the face with bombs and drones so that the Persian people can become the ground troops who defeat the mohammedan fanatics. It's still a gamble though.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at April 21, 2026 02:47 PM (y9nCu)
Has everyone forgotten…. Air power alone forced the Japanese surrender in WW II. A few nukes was all it took… no boots on the ground to take the sacred home island. That’s a pretty significant exception to the well known rule….
Posted by: LinusVanPelt at April 21, 2026 02:50 PM (xT8gx)
147
122 110 Ace, don't agree with me...
Trump has to make them want a deal. Right now, the Iranians in charge don't. So, he needs to figure out what will make them want that.
Or the Iranian people need to rise up and say no more.
Trump was hoping #2 would happen by now. It hasn't. And he still can't find the answer on #1.
Posted by: Nova Local at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (tOcjL)
If our goal is merely to stop their nuclear program, maintaining the blockade or destroying their oil infrastructure would be sufficient. The US does not actually need a deal or for Iran to be a functioning country on the other side of this to achieve its objectives.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (okun6)
As Ace said, Trump WANTS a deal...no, he doesn't need one, but b/c he's been selling a deal, he won't feel happy if he doesn't get one...or an Iranian rise up...
Trump has to make them want a deal. Right now, the Iranians in charge don't. So, he needs to figure out what will make them want that.
Or the Iranian people need to rise up and say no more.
Trump was hoping #2 would happen by now. It hasn't. And he still can't find the answer on #1.
Posted by: Nova Local at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (tOcjL)
If our goal is merely to stop their nuclear program, maintaining the blockade or destroying their oil infrastructure would be sufficient. The US does not actually need a deal or for Iran to be a functioning country on the other side of this to achieve its objectives.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (okun6)
As Ace said, Trump WANTS a deal...no, he doesn't need one, but b/c he's been selling a deal, he won't feel happy if he doesn't get one...or an Iranian rise up...
Posted by: Nova Local at April 21, 2026 02:51 PM (tOcjL)
148
>> From the beginnings of Air Power, this has been the dilemma. Air power alone won't win a war, no matter what Douhet and every other air power theorist thought.
The theory about air power relies on essentially brining civilization to a halt. That means unrelenting, unceasing targeting of everything from infrastructure to food supplies. It’s the apocalypse by Air Force. I dare say that’s never been tried. We get into these things with a limited target package and then expect people to fold without brining the real pain. That type of limited air war will fail most times because of execution and ultimately a will to carry out total war.
The theory about air power relies on essentially brining civilization to a halt. That means unrelenting, unceasing targeting of everything from infrastructure to food supplies. It’s the apocalypse by Air Force. I dare say that’s never been tried. We get into these things with a limited target package and then expect people to fold without brining the real pain. That type of limited air war will fail most times because of execution and ultimately a will to carry out total war.
Posted by: Marcus T at April 21, 2026 02:51 PM (IfQzb)
149
The Iranians aren't used to be sent back to the stone age. Let them live without electricity, gas, water, or Wi-Fi for a few weeks.
Bombs-away
The Iranians aren't used to be sent back to the stone age. Let them live without electricity, gas, water, or Wi-Fi for a few weeks.
Bombs-away
Posted by: Frank Barone at April 21, 2026 02:51 PM (IifOV)
150
It's just very obvious to the world (and to the Iranians) that $6 gas is a pressure point Trump can't tolerate politically, so if I'm being intellectually honest, the Iranians were smart to just create economic terrorism. They just wait him out.
If you're opponent knows youre not willing to really fight a proper war, they aren't going to surrender to anything. It's also obvious because Trump says it over and over, he wants this over quickly.
To me it's either invade with ground troops and secure Hormuz or walk away. It depends on the day you ask me.
My heart wants to see a real regime change in Iran and the gloves taken off, my head tells me this would politically be a death knell for Trump and the GOP to do it right.
If you're opponent knows youre not willing to really fight a proper war, they aren't going to surrender to anything. It's also obvious because Trump says it over and over, he wants this over quickly.
To me it's either invade with ground troops and secure Hormuz or walk away. It depends on the day you ask me.
My heart wants to see a real regime change in Iran and the gloves taken off, my head tells me this would politically be a death knell for Trump and the GOP to do it right.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 02:51 PM (eIzlH)
151
The allied forces bombing Dresden (civilians be damned), was to dismantle German rail logistics and show to Russia that we could soften resistance to Eastern attack. That was the fundamental inception point that caused Germany to sue for peace.
They sued for peace when Berlin fell to the Russians and Der Fuhrer killed himself.
They sued for peace when Berlin fell to the Russians and Der Fuhrer killed himself.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:51 PM (4NO2D)
152
>>Posted by: zombie at April 21, 2026 02:47 PM (Av6i5)
"Just wait until our soldiers meet the Elite Republican Guard!" - 90s Talking Head
"Just wait until our soldiers meet the Elite Republican Guard!" - 90s Talking Head
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 02:51 PM (ytyaf)
153
Nobody's mentioned the War Powers Act. The 60-day "limit" is approaching. Congress has to vote to extend it.....will they?
Posted by: Kareem of Wheat at April 21, 2026 02:52 PM (AFztM)
154
It's possible that the Right wing will find themselves yelling "TACO!" I hope not.
It's possible that a sustained blockade will precipitate the collapse of the regime. That would require our military presence, but is not "boots on the ground."
It's possible that a sustained blockade will be too boring for the TDS media to sustain their campaign of "get Trump."
It's possible that Trump & Co are working to reestablish arms smuggling to the Iranians, in which the Kurds - or anybody - can intercept them.
It's possible that specific targeting of the IRGC, whether by the US or more likely by Israel, will accelerate the collapse of the regime.
It's possible that this whole thing could be resolved without necessarily resorting to US "kinetic action."
I guess I'm more optimistic than is DE Ace.
It's possible that a sustained blockade will precipitate the collapse of the regime. That would require our military presence, but is not "boots on the ground."
It's possible that a sustained blockade will be too boring for the TDS media to sustain their campaign of "get Trump."
It's possible that Trump & Co are working to reestablish arms smuggling to the Iranians, in which the Kurds - or anybody - can intercept them.
It's possible that specific targeting of the IRGC, whether by the US or more likely by Israel, will accelerate the collapse of the regime.
It's possible that this whole thing could be resolved without necessarily resorting to US "kinetic action."
I guess I'm more optimistic than is DE Ace.
Posted by: LCMS Rulz! at April 21, 2026 02:52 PM (bufu1)
155
That was after a surrender.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (Wmg4n)
Yes.
Posted by: m at April 21
That really isn’t a negotiation like what we are talking about here, that is implementation of what the winners want.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:48 PM (Wmg4n)
Yes.
Posted by: m at April 21
That really isn’t a negotiation like what we are talking about here, that is implementation of what the winners want.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:52 PM (Wmg4n)
156
129.
The one-sided campaign continues to stack up wins in the Northeast. New York, New Jersey, Assachusetts and a bunch of other tiny Costco parking-lot-sized faggoty states are expected to surrender to the awe-inspiring IRGC bulls servicing the wives of liberal "men".
The one-sided campaign continues to stack up wins in the Northeast. New York, New Jersey, Assachusetts and a bunch of other tiny Costco parking-lot-sized faggoty states are expected to surrender to the awe-inspiring IRGC bulls servicing the wives of liberal "men".
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:52 PM (03/BH)
157
I’ll add. I think Trump could do power plants and bridges and walk away with no repercussions for the mid terms. Let the IRGC charge a toll in the straight. India and China are basically paying it then. The market sorts that out in weeks.
Posted by: Rando Calrissian at April 21, 2026 02:52 PM (EQ65/)
158
Tousi has a more optimistic take on this than I do, stating that this is just a "desperate" tactic by Iran to show that they're the ones in charge. But... if one person wants to negotiate and you refuse, you are in charge, at least on the question of whether negotiations will happen.
=======
The IRGC can no longer import dollars or wan.
It has to rely on the rial.
It can't hold out for a month with the blockade of Iranian ports. There aren't nearly enough imports from other areas to make up for it.
And the blockade can last a lot longer than the IRGC will be able to feed its minions.
=======
The IRGC can no longer import dollars or wan.
It has to rely on the rial.
It can't hold out for a month with the blockade of Iranian ports. There aren't nearly enough imports from other areas to make up for it.
And the blockade can last a lot longer than the IRGC will be able to feed its minions.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 02:53 PM (O35xg)
159
Cue up Fat Man and Little Boy.
Posted by: Boss Moss at April 21, 2026 02:53 PM (JTLUe)
160
M - that is like arbitration versus mediation. Mediation contemplates you have something you are willing to give up. Arbitration is saying you are right and want a third party to agree with you on it.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:53 PM (Wmg4n)
161
You cannot win a regime change war from the air as you run out of legitimate military targets and the Mullah's and controlling regime have a near endless supply of lunatics who want to be the next Mullah and in control of the regime.
The people are unarmed so they have no ability to effect regime change from the ground.
You can't destroy critical infrastructure because then you create a humanitarian crisis, plus we eventually want Iranian oil to flood the market to lower the prie of oil generally.
The ME has been a quagmire for centuries, it's never not going to be a quagmire.
The people are unarmed so they have no ability to effect regime change from the ground.
You can't destroy critical infrastructure because then you create a humanitarian crisis, plus we eventually want Iranian oil to flood the market to lower the prie of oil generally.
The ME has been a quagmire for centuries, it's never not going to be a quagmire.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at April 21, 2026 02:54 PM (XV/Pl)
162
>>>Stop all Iranian bound ships and destroy any concentrations of Iranian forces. Then let simmer for six months.
---
I like that. Loiter at the blockade. Send a couple of sorties out every day and blow something of opportunity up (not civilian centric).
Also, no planes, trains or trucks in or out bound.
Total Siege.
Step two is take their oil. Let China, India and the EU buy it from us at market rates.
---
I like that. Loiter at the blockade. Send a couple of sorties out every day and blow something of opportunity up (not civilian centric).
Also, no planes, trains or trucks in or out bound.
Total Siege.
Step two is take their oil. Let China, India and the EU buy it from us at market rates.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 02:54 PM (YvvFZ)
163
>>Nobody's mentioned the War Powers Act. The 60-day "limit" is approaching. Congress has to vote to extend it....
It's been mentioned.
It's also a toothless act that has been widely ignored since its inception.
See: Obama in Libya.
It's been mentioned.
It's also a toothless act that has been widely ignored since its inception.
See: Obama in Libya.
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 02:54 PM (ytyaf)
164
Absolute, Unmitigated bullshit.
Posted by: Marcus T at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (IfQzb)
Fair enough.
In the fog of war, who knows what is real. I figured when Chris fucking Murphy commented on it, he wasn't falling for fake news.
I should have known better (I did in fact ask if this was BS propaganda on the Instapundit thread).
Posted by: Marcus T at April 21, 2026 02:46 PM (IfQzb)
Fair enough.
In the fog of war, who knows what is real. I figured when Chris fucking Murphy commented on it, he wasn't falling for fake news.
I should have known better (I did in fact ask if this was BS propaganda on the Instapundit thread).
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 02:54 PM (WYStd)
165
I hope the Administration has an answer to the question: what if Iran refuses to behave rationally?
I hope the Administration has an answer to the question: what if Iran refuses to behave rationally?
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 02:55 PM (tgvbd)
166
Easy enough. Blow up Kharg Island oil exporting facilities. That pretty much ends Iran being able to export oil which directly hits the regime in finances but leaves the power on for Iranians for now.
Posted by: whig at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (E4rtv)
======
Iran can't export oil, now, except to Russia via the Caspian Sea.
Bombing the powerplants means the end of water distribution and sewage treatment. You want Iranians at each others throats? That's what you do.
Posted by: whig at April 21, 2026 02:49 PM (E4rtv)
======
Iran can't export oil, now, except to Russia via the Caspian Sea.
Bombing the powerplants means the end of water distribution and sewage treatment. You want Iranians at each others throats? That's what you do.
Posted by: mrp at April 21, 2026 02:55 PM (rj6Yv)
167
I she's trump happy ended right cannot if 7 times? worst!
Posted by: UA113 at April 21, 2026 02:55 PM (cz34i)
168
I think everyone has decided to simply wait Trump out. He will be a lame duck soon and the GOPe is ready to go back to business as usual.
The hysteria about Trump was for the base. The bigwigs never sweated over him.
The hysteria about Trump was for the base. The bigwigs never sweated over him.
Posted by: Accomack at April 21, 2026 02:55 PM (sStKZ)
169
23 Iran has to be made an offer they can't refuse...time to start paring down the next levels of military and political leaders...
------------------
The eyes and ears have been busy detecting their network. Bet there are some very tempting targets.
------------------
The eyes and ears have been busy detecting their network. Bet there are some very tempting targets.
Posted by: pudinhead at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (FmapG)
170
160 M - that is like arbitration versus mediation. Mediation contemplates you have something you are willing to give up. Arbitration is saying you are right and want a third party to agree with you on it.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:53 PM (Wmg4n)
I hear you.
Posted by: Piper at April 21, 2026 02:53 PM (Wmg4n)
I hear you.
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (YbTYS)
171
Didn't Trump also promise a 50% tariff on China if they were caught delivering weapons to Iran? That's how I remember it ... weapons or things that are used to produce weapons, I assume.
Posted by: illiniwek at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (vbXSk)
172
You can't destroy critical infrastructure because then you create a humanitarian crisis, plus we eventually want Iranian oil to flood the market to lower the prie of oil generally.
The ME has been a quagmire for centuries, it's never not going to be a quagmire.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at April 21, 2026 02:54 PM (XV/Pl)
Iranian oil production is replaceable, it's transit that's actually the issue.
The ME has been a quagmire for centuries, it's never not going to be a quagmire.
Posted by: Thomas Bender at April 21, 2026 02:54 PM (XV/Pl)
Iranian oil production is replaceable, it's transit that's actually the issue.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (okun6)
173
In comes the troll... What took so long ?
Posted by: It's me donna at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (K88SD)
174
150 It's just very obvious to the world (and to the Iranians) that $6 gas is a pressure point Trump can't tolerate politically, so if I'm being intellectually honest, the Iranians were smart to just create economic terrorism. They just wait him out.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 02:51 PM (eIzlH)
=======
Oh, what will Trump, who made Venezuela, country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, a vassal state, do to lower oil prices?
$6 gas is only possible in places like CA and it's unrelated to oil markets.
2/3 of all oil in the Gulf that would have gone out through the strait is being pushed out through pipelines instead. We're producing so much oil, our exports have increased by a million dollars a day.
It's almost like the antebellum reality of having several million barrels oversupply is catching up to reduced traffic from the strait. Weird.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 02:51 PM (eIzlH)
=======
Oh, what will Trump, who made Venezuela, country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, a vassal state, do to lower oil prices?
$6 gas is only possible in places like CA and it's unrelated to oil markets.
2/3 of all oil in the Gulf that would have gone out through the strait is being pushed out through pipelines instead. We're producing so much oil, our exports have increased by a million dollars a day.
It's almost like the antebellum reality of having several million barrels oversupply is catching up to reduced traffic from the strait. Weird.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (O35xg)
175
Won't you please send ground troops in and get rid of the IRGC and mullahs for us? [Resumes eating grapes, filing nails.]
Posted by: 90 Million Persian Rugs at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (qUkBO)
176
People expecting Iranians to rise up and overthrow the mullahs fail to see that p3dos like that illegal in Virginia and worse routinely are allowed to come and go safely about their merry way right here in the USA. People are not brave as a rule. They are fat and lazy and will deal with just about anything to avoid violence.
Errbody wants to be big, nobody wants to lift no heavy ass weight.
Errbody wants to be big, nobody wants to lift no heavy ass weight.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (03/BH)
177
understand that we're not stopping all ships, but apparently these "ships" made it through to or from Iranian ports.
==
if you did deeper where this bs came from you will see that it came from Iranian proxies in the media
==
if you did deeper where this bs came from you will see that it came from Iranian proxies in the media
Posted by: runner at April 21, 2026 02:57 PM (GD0B3)
178
163 >>Nobody's mentioned the War Powers Act. The 60-day "limit" is approaching. Congress has to vote to extend it....
It's been mentioned.
It's also a toothless act that has been widely ignored since its inception.
See: Obama in Libya.
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 02:54 PM (ytyaf)
======
Also, Trump stopped the kinetic action, so a start after the ceasefire would restart the clock (his lawyers will definitely argue).
It's been mentioned.
It's also a toothless act that has been widely ignored since its inception.
See: Obama in Libya.
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 02:54 PM (ytyaf)
======
Also, Trump stopped the kinetic action, so a start after the ceasefire would restart the clock (his lawyers will definitely argue).
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 02:57 PM (O35xg)
179
I see the President shrugging and saying "We made our best and final offer during the ceasefire. Now we''re reloaded and not taking any new offers. This is the path you have chosen."
Posted by: Field Marshal Zhukov, now, where does a war hero get some lubrication around here? at April 21, 2026 02:57 PM (wBaIH)
180
My advice to Trump is leave the blockade in place.
Posted by: Accomack at April 21, 2026 02:57 PM (sStKZ)
181
165
I hope the Administration has an answer to the question: what if Iran refuses to behave rationally?
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 02:55 PM (tgvbd)
=======
*see 5 weeks of decapitation strikes that happened before the ceasefire for reference*
I hope the Administration has an answer to the question: what if Iran refuses to behave rationally?
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 02:55 PM (tgvbd)
=======
*see 5 weeks of decapitation strikes that happened before the ceasefire for reference*
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 02:57 PM (O35xg)
182
I am reasonably optimistic, because I think Trump knows what he is doing, and much of what you see in the news is the visible part of his tactics. Remember that Iran has already complained about being fooled twice by Trump.
I suspect we're about to see that happen a third time.
Whether that's right or wrong, I'm content to judge by the ultimate outcome, not the appearances of things during the fog or war.
I suspect we're about to see that happen a third time.
Whether that's right or wrong, I'm content to judge by the ultimate outcome, not the appearances of things during the fog or war.
Posted by: Splunge at April 21, 2026 02:58 PM (InqhU)
183
It's been mentioned.
It's also a toothless act that has been widely ignored since its inception.
See: Obama in Libya.
-------
I can see the feckless Republicants in Congress giving Trump problems with it that would never give to a Democrat. Hell, Massie and Paul.
It's also a toothless act that has been widely ignored since its inception.
See: Obama in Libya.
-------
I can see the feckless Republicants in Congress giving Trump problems with it that would never give to a Democrat. Hell, Massie and Paul.
Posted by: Kareem of Wheat at April 21, 2026 02:58 PM (AFztM)
184
At some point, Trump and the Crown Prince will call for the revolt.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:59 PM (4NO2D)
185
On this day in 1986: Geraldo Rivera opens Al Capone's vault on live TV and finds nothing, except great ratings for his spectacle.
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 02:59 PM (RHGPo)
186
108 There is only one way to deal with fanatics, kick the ever loving $hit out of them and make them cry uncle. A lesson we seem to have forgotten from fighting the Japanese in the Pacific in WWII.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (0N4FZ)
The problem, as I see it, is WWII in the Pacific ended because there was an all-powerful emperor who didn't want to die, wanted what was good for his people and was able to command the military to stand down and surrender and a military willing to obey.
None of those conditions exist in Iran.
I don't see Iran having a rational, all-powerful leader. Even if there is/was an all-powerful leader, he's not rational and thinks death will lead to paradise and his 42 raisins. Ditto for the military (IRGC). It's victory or fight until everyone is dead. Kind of like the Nazi's in Germany. The fight went on until there was nothing left to fight with and no one left to fight.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at April 21, 2026 02:44 PM (0N4FZ)
The problem, as I see it, is WWII in the Pacific ended because there was an all-powerful emperor who didn't want to die, wanted what was good for his people and was able to command the military to stand down and surrender and a military willing to obey.
None of those conditions exist in Iran.
I don't see Iran having a rational, all-powerful leader. Even if there is/was an all-powerful leader, he's not rational and thinks death will lead to paradise and his 42 raisins. Ditto for the military (IRGC). It's victory or fight until everyone is dead. Kind of like the Nazi's in Germany. The fight went on until there was nothing left to fight with and no one left to fight.
Posted by: Anonymous Rogue in Kalifornistan (ARiK) at April 21, 2026 03:00 PM (QGaXH)
187
>>> Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete 3: Strokyo Grip at April 21, 2026 02:58 PM (JYLrL)
Eat shit and die, faggot.
Eat shit and die, faggot.
Posted by: you're wrong about everything, loser at April 21, 2026 03:00 PM (9vFyc)
188
Iranian oil production is replaceable, it's transit that's actually the issue.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (okun6)
========
That doesn't advance the clock for ending Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (okun6)
========
That doesn't advance the clock for ending Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Posted by: mrp at April 21, 2026 03:00 PM (rj6Yv)
189
One caveat to my Eyeore-ism, I still haven't learned patience with Trump and I am still a bit susceptible to doomerism. But the clock is ticking.
Posted by: Kareem of Wheat at April 21, 2026 03:00 PM (AFztM)
190
"This conflict was a disaster because of limited traffic on the strait and the 4th guy in charge of the IRGC in the last 6 weeks being obstinate," is a take.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:00 PM (O35xg)
191
I'm fine if we keep going until there is no one to negotiate with.
Posted by: fd at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (vFG9F)
192
184 At some point, Trump and the Crown Prince will call for the revolt.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:59 PM (4NO2D)
Haven't they already killed like 40,000 'dissidents' in the last few months?
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:59 PM (4NO2D)
Haven't they already killed like 40,000 'dissidents' in the last few months?
Posted by: Romeo13 at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (mP0Kj)
193
Iran doesn't have months. Their economy is going to go from dumpster fire to cold ashes if the blockade is kept up another month or so. Especially if the bombs start dropping again.
There's also a solution if Trump wants to take the risk. Go all out on bombing the islands and coastal sites and send the Navy to escort tankers through the Strait with continuous air cover. Iran has nothing if the Strait isn't fully shut down.
There's also a solution if Trump wants to take the risk. Go all out on bombing the islands and coastal sites and send the Navy to escort tankers through the Strait with continuous air cover. Iran has nothing if the Strait isn't fully shut down.
Posted by: deepelemblues at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (dxkJd)
194
Oh, what will Trump, who made Venezuela, country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, a vassal state, do to lower oil prices?
$6 gas is only possible in places like CA and it's unrelated to oil markets.
2/3 of all oil in the Gulf that would have gone out through the strait is being pushed out through pipelines instead. We're producing so much oil, our exports have increased by a million dollars a day.
It's almost like the antebellum reality of having several million barrels oversupply is catching up to reduced traffic from the strait. Weird.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison
===
But when? A decade from now?
"Proven" oil reserves doesnt mean you just turn on a spigot.
We have plenty of oil for all our needs produced here, but it's a global commodity. if it goes up dramatically there, it goes up here.
$6 gas is only possible in places like CA and it's unrelated to oil markets.
2/3 of all oil in the Gulf that would have gone out through the strait is being pushed out through pipelines instead. We're producing so much oil, our exports have increased by a million dollars a day.
It's almost like the antebellum reality of having several million barrels oversupply is catching up to reduced traffic from the strait. Weird.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison
===
But when? A decade from now?
"Proven" oil reserves doesnt mean you just turn on a spigot.
We have plenty of oil for all our needs produced here, but it's a global commodity. if it goes up dramatically there, it goes up here.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (eIzlH)
195
I knew this would be along shortly ...
CNN's Audie Cornish Pushes Sexism Angle on Trump Cabinet Departures
CNN's Audie Cornish Pushes Sexism Angle on Trump Cabinet Departures
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (RHGPo)
196
I just heard on the radio that some major news organizations are admitting that Iran was literally on the verge of getting 7-10 nukes.
Lunatics aren't allowed to own firearms in the US. Similarly, religious lunatics should not ever be allowed to own nukes. Pretty simple actually.
Lunatics aren't allowed to own firearms in the US. Similarly, religious lunatics should not ever be allowed to own nukes. Pretty simple actually.
Posted by: Chairborne!...Desk From Above! at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (28ePU)
197
trolls are losers, they think that getting a crappy VPN makes them matter. no one gives a shit about their Low IQ garbage IRL, so they try to beat up internet blogs. pathetic. no one give a shite about their low IQ garbage anywhere.
Posted by: runner at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (GD0B3)
198
Shit, I'm sorry. I didn't know peckerless pete was banned.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (4NO2D)
199
193 184 At some point, Trump and the Crown Prince will call for the revolt.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:59 PM (4NO2D)
Haven't they already killed like 40,000 'dissidents' in the last few months?
Posted by: Romeo13 at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (mP0Kj)
========
The Islamic Republic's internal position is so strong right now that they imported their Iraqi militias to keep the populace down, all while mid-level and up commanders of the Basij and IRGC are being stabbed in the streets and blown up.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:59 PM (4NO2D)
Haven't they already killed like 40,000 'dissidents' in the last few months?
Posted by: Romeo13 at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (mP0Kj)
========
The Islamic Republic's internal position is so strong right now that they imported their Iraqi militias to keep the populace down, all while mid-level and up commanders of the Basij and IRGC are being stabbed in the streets and blown up.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (O35xg)
200
A crossover thought from the Gun Thread...
One of the big things we make a point of in discussing use of lethal force in self-defense (e.g., guns) is that you do not take out your gun in the hopes of scaring off the bad guy. You do not take it out presuming that the sight of your gun will unnerve them and they will flee.
You only take your gun out when you feel the need to stop the bad guy with some extreme force and probably kill the guy. You do hope and pray that in the 1/2 second from your draw to the sight picture being aligned and you begin to squeeze the trigger that the bad guy will turn and run. But you didn't draw your gun to achieve that result, you drew it to put large holes in the bad guy's torso and head and any result other than that that ends up saving you is just gravy.
And I think (as you say, Ace) that Trump being oriented on The Deal loses sight of that. He's drawing the gun and talking to the perp, and convincing him to make a deal. When he should just put 2 in the chest, face gets the rest, and walk away.
One of the big things we make a point of in discussing use of lethal force in self-defense (e.g., guns) is that you do not take out your gun in the hopes of scaring off the bad guy. You do not take it out presuming that the sight of your gun will unnerve them and they will flee.
You only take your gun out when you feel the need to stop the bad guy with some extreme force and probably kill the guy. You do hope and pray that in the 1/2 second from your draw to the sight picture being aligned and you begin to squeeze the trigger that the bad guy will turn and run. But you didn't draw your gun to achieve that result, you drew it to put large holes in the bad guy's torso and head and any result other than that that ends up saving you is just gravy.
And I think (as you say, Ace) that Trump being oriented on The Deal loses sight of that. He's drawing the gun and talking to the perp, and convincing him to make a deal. When he should just put 2 in the chest, face gets the rest, and walk away.
Posted by: GWB at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (mdaV5)
201
=======
The IRGC can no longer import dollars or wan.
It has to rely on the rial.
It can't hold out for a month with the blockade of Iranian ports. There aren't nearly enough imports from other areas to make up for it.
And the blockade can last a lot longer than the IRGC will be able to feed its minions.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering
---
It is time for the Iranian citizens to receive weapons and advice. Israelis knows how to survive there - between our two countries weapons and tactical instruction - hell, (insurrection) that's is all the CIA's been doing this century. Get their asses in there to do something for their country this time.
The IRGC can no longer import dollars or wan.
It has to rely on the rial.
It can't hold out for a month with the blockade of Iranian ports. There aren't nearly enough imports from other areas to make up for it.
And the blockade can last a lot longer than the IRGC will be able to feed its minions.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering
---
It is time for the Iranian citizens to receive weapons and advice. Israelis knows how to survive there - between our two countries weapons and tactical instruction - hell, (insurrection) that's is all the CIA's been doing this century. Get their asses in there to do something for their country this time.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (YvvFZ)
202
Also, Trump stopped the kinetic action, so a start after the ceasefire would restart the clock (his lawyers will definitely argue).
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 02:57 PM (O35xg)
----
Point.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 02:57 PM (O35xg)
----
Point.
Posted by: Kareem of Wheat at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (AFztM)
203
Eventually the Italians hung Mussolini from a light post. The Iranian youth need to step it up when it's time. Trump/Bibi softened the IRGC up.
Eventually the Italians hung Mussolini from a light post. The Iranian youth need to step it up when it's time. Trump/Bibi softened the IRGC up.
Posted by: Frank Barone at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (IifOV)
204
200 more to go...
@BillMelugin_ 1h
BREAKING: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has resigned from Congress ahead of possible expulsion.
@BillMelugin_ 1h
BREAKING: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has resigned from Congress ahead of possible expulsion.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (diia5)
205
The more optimistic analysis I've seen recently is that there are multiple entities claiming to be in charge in Iran and that every time Trump announces "Iran" said or agreed to something, they all fight amongst themselves. With bombs and AKs.
Combined with the citizens getting their hands on guns and liquidating IRGC and Bathshi (sp?) security (who then donate more guns when dead) I think it *will* take a while, but it has the potential to be pretty entertaining.
Combined with the citizens getting their hands on guns and liquidating IRGC and Bathshi (sp?) security (who then donate more guns when dead) I think it *will* take a while, but it has the potential to be pretty entertaining.
Posted by: Ian S. at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (2ocoG)
206
"I figured when Chris fucking Murphy commented on it, he wasn't falling for fake news."
Trusted Chris Murphy...moron status questionable. Possible Fed.
Trusted Chris Murphy...moron status questionable. Possible Fed.
Posted by: connected and litigious at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (cS1cw)
207
Errbody wants to be big, nobody wants to lift no heavy ass weight.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (03/BH)
Previously those "heavy ass weights" were lifted by Ivy High Lifts brought in from construction sites.
And for some reason the people who survived those purges don't want to be the next heavy weight to be lifted. For some reason. Like liking breathing.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (03/BH)
Previously those "heavy ass weights" were lifted by Ivy High Lifts brought in from construction sites.
And for some reason the people who survived those purges don't want to be the next heavy weight to be lifted. For some reason. Like liking breathing.
Posted by: Kindltot at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (rbvCR)
208
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:59 PM (4NO2D)
I know this is confusing, but I guess you are new around here.
Don't cut and paste trolls!
I know this is confusing, but I guess you are new around here.
Don't cut and paste trolls!
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (n9ltV)
209
195 But when? A decade from now?
"Proven" oil reserves doesnt mean you just turn on a spigot.
We have plenty of oil for all our needs produced here, but it's a global commodity. if it goes up dramatically there, it goes up here.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (eIzlH)
======
Now.
Chevron kept their presence in Venezuela just for this, and they've already turned production back on.
US oil is trading at $89 now.
We were promised $200 by Qatar 6 weeks ago.
"Proven" oil reserves doesnt mean you just turn on a spigot.
We have plenty of oil for all our needs produced here, but it's a global commodity. if it goes up dramatically there, it goes up here.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (eIzlH)
======
Now.
Chevron kept their presence in Venezuela just for this, and they've already turned production back on.
US oil is trading at $89 now.
We were promised $200 by Qatar 6 weeks ago.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (O35xg)
210
War is cruelty. It cannot be refined. -W.T. Sherman
No matter how much we are precise , innocent's die.
No matter how much we are precise , innocent's die.
Posted by: Smell the Glove at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (gu0hJ)
211
>> I'm fine if we keep going until there is no one to negotiate with.
This is the way.
Keep killing them and decimating their supply of weapons / industry while crushing their ability to import/export.
This is the way.
Keep killing them and decimating their supply of weapons / industry while crushing their ability to import/export.
Posted by: garrett at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM (ytyaf)
212
Has everyone forgotten…. Air power alone forced the Japanese surrender in WW II. A few nukes was all it took… no boots on the ground to take the sacred home island. That’s a pretty significant exception to the well known rule….
Posted by: LinusVanPelt at April 21, 2026 02:50 PM (xT8gx)
I'll grant that exception to the rule. But remember, the vast majority of Japan's ground power had already been destroyed or was trapped in mainland China or on hundreds of scattered Pacific Islands. Destroyed mostly by ground forces in those faraway locales. There was virtually no trained and experienced ground forces left to defend the Home Islands as they were mostly deployed elsewhere.
Has everyone forgotten…. Air power alone forced the Japanese surrender in WW II. A few nukes was all it took… no boots on the ground to take the sacred home island. That’s a pretty significant exception to the well known rule….
Posted by: LinusVanPelt at April 21, 2026 02:50 PM (xT8gx)
I'll grant that exception to the rule. But remember, the vast majority of Japan's ground power had already been destroyed or was trapped in mainland China or on hundreds of scattered Pacific Islands. Destroyed mostly by ground forces in those faraway locales. There was virtually no trained and experienced ground forces left to defend the Home Islands as they were mostly deployed elsewhere.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM (y9nCu)
213
‘Benny Johnson Is Gay’: Former Musk Mistress Ashley St Clair's Viral Video Sparks Speculation
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM (RHGPo)
214
If you don’t want to bring about regime change in the way we’ve done on the past, then you have to thread the needle like we did in Venezuela. You get people to change their behavior by removing the bad actors and convincing whoever is left it’s in their best interests to change course. The challenge is with ideological zealots like the IRGC who continue to keep and enforce power at the point of a gun. You have a lot of people who aren’t motivated by money. They will be the problem and are not dissuaded by watching the people around them get smoked. They’re true believers and we haven’t killed enough of them yet.
Posted by: Marcus T at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM (IfQzb)
215
202 It is time for the Iranian citizens to receive weapons and advice. Israelis knows how to survive there - between our two countries weapons and tactical instruction - hell, (insurrection) that's is all the CIA's been doing this century. Get their asses in there to do something for their country this time.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (YvvFZ)
======
I continue to maintain that the US would be perfectly fine with the Mullahs retaining control.
As long as the head mullah was more concerned with getting peed on by Saudi hookers than keeping nuclear weapons and funding Hezbollah.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (YvvFZ)
======
I continue to maintain that the US would be perfectly fine with the Mullahs retaining control.
As long as the head mullah was more concerned with getting peed on by Saudi hookers than keeping nuclear weapons and funding Hezbollah.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:04 PM (O35xg)
216
Shit, I'm sorry. I didn't know peckerless pete was banned.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (4NO2D)
IT"S GOING TO COST YOU!
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (4NO2D)
IT"S GOING TO COST YOU!
Posted by: runner at April 21, 2026 03:04 PM (GD0B3)
217
Another thing I'd like to see is the international community at least saying "Tsk, tsk" to Iran for blockading an international waterway. Where is the fucking UN or Europe on that?
Nowhere, because it would be seen as an endorsement of Trump. Fuckers all.
Nowhere, because it would be seen as an endorsement of Trump. Fuckers all.
Posted by: Chairborne!...Desk From Above! at April 21, 2026 03:04 PM (28ePU)
218
But when? A decade from now?
"Proven" oil reserves doesnt mean you just turn on a spigot.
We have plenty of oil for all our needs produced here, but it's a global commodity. if it goes up dramatically there, it goes up here.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (eIzlH)
OPEC+ has spare capacity as they do not operate at full capacity. Marginal shale production in the US takes a little under a year to bring online.
Markets are not seamless hence why Asia and Europe have been feeling the squeeze far worse.
As much as people have been making a big deal of it, this is a modest price shift consistent with a relatively small disruption. If we had a 10%+ year-long disruption prices would be substantially higher.
But when? A decade from now?
"Proven" oil reserves doesnt mean you just turn on a spigot.
We have plenty of oil for all our needs produced here, but it's a global commodity. if it goes up dramatically there, it goes up here.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (eIzlH)
OPEC+ has spare capacity as they do not operate at full capacity. Marginal shale production in the US takes a little under a year to bring online.
Markets are not seamless hence why Asia and Europe have been feeling the squeeze far worse.
As much as people have been making a big deal of it, this is a modest price shift consistent with a relatively small disruption. If we had a 10%+ year-long disruption prices would be substantially higher.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 03:04 PM (okun6)
219
‘Benny Johnson Is Gay’: Former Musk Mistress Ashley St Clair's Viral Video Sparks Speculation
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM (RHGPo)
👀
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM (RHGPo)
👀
Posted by: runner at April 21, 2026 03:04 PM (GD0B3)
220
The only move I see is just somehow block Iran and Iran only from exporting their oil with a blockade. Starve them out and make China, India, and feckless Europe pressure them to cut a deal that keeps the Straits open.
I dont think the regime fears death, civilian casualties, or infrastructure damag, but I do think they fear being broke.
I dont think the regime fears death, civilian casualties, or infrastructure damag, but I do think they fear being broke.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (eIzlH)
221
You don't need a ground force, this can all be done from the air. It's just a question of will.
If you're willing to put Iran to the torch, this thing is wrapped up in 2 weeks. Destroy all bridges, electrical generation capacity, oil storage and water treatment plants.
No more fuel for attack boats, food production or transport, no electricity for communications, and internal regions are isolated from each other, making moving regime forces around even more impossible.
In 100 years, if the descendants of the survivors are still showing their ass, you burn their country again.
Will we do it? Almost definitely not. That would require Trump to be a bit of what the left has been screeching that he is for the last 10 years.
But it could be done.
If you're willing to put Iran to the torch, this thing is wrapped up in 2 weeks. Destroy all bridges, electrical generation capacity, oil storage and water treatment plants.
No more fuel for attack boats, food production or transport, no electricity for communications, and internal regions are isolated from each other, making moving regime forces around even more impossible.
In 100 years, if the descendants of the survivors are still showing their ass, you burn their country again.
Will we do it? Almost definitely not. That would require Trump to be a bit of what the left has been screeching that he is for the last 10 years.
But it could be done.
Posted by: Jack Package at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (U+1Io)
222
204 200 more to go...
@BillMelugin_ 1h
BREAKING: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has resigned from Congress ahead of possible expulsion.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (diia5)
; )
@BillMelugin_ 1h
BREAKING: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has resigned from Congress ahead of possible expulsion.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (diia5)
; )
Posted by: m at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (YbTYS)
223
218 As much as people have been making a big deal of it, this is a modest price shift consistent with a relatively small disruption. If we had a 10%+ year-long disruption prices would be substantially higher.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 03:04 PM (okun6)
========
Oil was consistently higher for months when Russia first invaded Ukraine 4 years ago.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 03:04 PM (okun6)
========
Oil was consistently higher for months when Russia first invaded Ukraine 4 years ago.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (O35xg)
224
This war would be over in 15 minutes if we bombed the NYT and Washington Post instead of Tehran.
Posted by: iamnotthekenyaninterloper at April 21, 2026 02:40 PM (y9skt)
Unfortunately there's probably truth to that.
Posted by: iamnotthekenyaninterloper at April 21, 2026 02:40 PM (y9skt)
Unfortunately there's probably truth to that.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (snZF9)
225
========
The Islamic Republic's internal position is so strong right now that they imported their Iraqi militias to keep the populace down, all while mid-level and up commanders of the Basij and IRGC are being stabbed in the streets and blown up.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison,
---
Them importing Iraqis is troublesome. More so that they are willingly complicit.
The Islamic Republic's internal position is so strong right now that they imported their Iraqi militias to keep the populace down, all while mid-level and up commanders of the Basij and IRGC are being stabbed in the streets and blown up.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison,
---
Them importing Iraqis is troublesome. More so that they are willingly complicit.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (YvvFZ)
226
As the great Thos Sowell said, there are no solutions, only tradeoffs.
Want an Iranian nuke? Of course not. So bomb the hell out of them.
Not working?
Take out the leadership.
Slowed 'em down pretty good, but its a big country and lots of places to hide stuff.
Regime change?
Mmm no.
Well then what?
"?..."
Want an Iranian nuke? Of course not. So bomb the hell out of them.
Not working?
Take out the leadership.
Slowed 'em down pretty good, but its a big country and lots of places to hide stuff.
Regime change?
Mmm no.
Well then what?
"?..."
Posted by: Zek at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (5FPX4)
Posted by: fd at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (vFG9F)
228
225 Them importing Iraqis is troublesome. More so that they are willingly complicit.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (YvvFZ)
=======
Well, the Islamic Republic set up the Iraqi militias in the first place. They're theirs, just like Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM (YvvFZ)
=======
Well, the Islamic Republic set up the Iraqi militias in the first place. They're theirs, just like Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:06 PM (O35xg)
229
Is this not proof of what a disarmed citizenry means? If the average Iranian had guns, this would have been over long ago. Even if the government has more firepower, it would have given them pause and perhaps some regions could expel IRGC, et al and then there could have been more movement to regime change. But as long as the regime knows it can slaughter any opposition at will, I'm not so sure any real resistance from within will form.
Posted by: Lex at April 21, 2026 03:06 PM (l5xX+)
230
Similarly, religious lunatics should not ever be allowed to own nukes. Pretty simple actually.
Posted by: Chairborne!...Desk From Above! at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (28ePU)
___________
Deus vult! There is no salvation outside the Church!
Similarly, religious lunatics should not ever be allowed to own nukes. Pretty simple actually.
Posted by: Chairborne!...Desk From Above! at April 21, 2026 03:01 PM (28ePU)
___________
Deus vult! There is no salvation outside the Church!
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 03:06 PM (tgvbd)
231
176 Errbody wants to be big, nobody wants to lift no heavy ass weight.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (03/BH)
The first at the door is guaranteed to get shot.
Nobody wants to go first.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (03/BH)
The first at the door is guaranteed to get shot.
Nobody wants to go first.
Posted by: XTC at April 21, 2026 03:06 PM (iXqHn)
232
We have plenty of oil for all our needs produced here, but it's a global commodity. if it goes up dramatically there, it goes up here.
-
We aren't required to sell oil to anyone else.
-
We aren't required to sell oil to anyone else.
Posted by: Methos at April 21, 2026 03:06 PM (vSvIl)
233
@BillMelugin_ 1h
BREAKING: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has resigned from Congress ahead of possible expulsion.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (diia5)
; )
Posted by: m
---
Hard nuggies when you've been indicted with 7 or so felonies.
BREAKING: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has resigned from Congress ahead of possible expulsion.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (diia5)
; )
Posted by: m
---
Hard nuggies when you've been indicted with 7 or so felonies.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:07 PM (YvvFZ)
234
The Iraqi militias have been smoked, some right inside Iraq’s borders. We told the rest of they move out of garrison it will end badly.
Posted by: Marcus T at April 21, 2026 03:07 PM (IfQzb)
235
126
-- you have to literally blow their heads off and hang them from street-lamps --
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at April 21, 2026 02:47 PM (y9nCu)
feigned (bad) British accent: 'ow yew gonna do that if 'es got no 'ead, govnah?
-- you have to literally blow their heads off and hang them from street-lamps --
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at April 21, 2026 02:47 PM (y9nCu)
feigned (bad) British accent: 'ow yew gonna do that if 'es got no 'ead, govnah?
Posted by: Anonymous Rogue in Kalifornistan (ARiK) at April 21, 2026 03:07 PM (QGaXH)
236
Trump needs to pivot to Minneapolis or Cuber.
Posted by: pudinhead at April 21, 2026 03:07 PM (FmapG)
237
"Tucker Carlson DISOWNS Donald Trump"
That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.
Posted by: fd at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM
FIFY.
That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.
Posted by: fd at April 21, 2026 03:05 PM
FIFY.
Posted by: AoSHQ Style Guide at April 21, 2026 03:08 PM (0sNs1)
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 03:08 PM (tgvbd)
239
232 We have plenty of oil for all our needs produced here, but it's a global commodity. if it goes up dramatically there, it goes up here.
-
We aren't required to sell oil to anyone else.
Posted by: Methos at April 21, 2026 03:06 PM (vSvIl)
=======
WTI, Brent, and other oils trade at different levels all the time. It is a global marketplace, but different varieties from different places have different prices all the time for an assortment of reasons.
Regional issues could make disparate impacts on one region over another.
It's why WTI isn't trading at $70, but it's also why there's a $10 difference between Brent and WTI right now.
-
We aren't required to sell oil to anyone else.
Posted by: Methos at April 21, 2026 03:06 PM (vSvIl)
=======
WTI, Brent, and other oils trade at different levels all the time. It is a global marketplace, but different varieties from different places have different prices all the time for an assortment of reasons.
Regional issues could make disparate impacts on one region over another.
It's why WTI isn't trading at $70, but it's also why there's a $10 difference between Brent and WTI right now.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:08 PM (O35xg)
240
213 ‘Benny Johnson Is Gay’: Former Musk Mistress Ashley St Clair's Viral Video Sparks Speculation
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM (RHGPo)
What does she want us to do about it, throw him off of the tallest building we can find?
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM (RHGPo)
What does she want us to do about it, throw him off of the tallest building we can find?
Posted by: XTC at April 21, 2026 03:08 PM (iXqHn)
241
I can see the feckless Republicants in Congress giving Trump problems with it that would never give to a Democrat.
Feckless?? H'rumph!
Feckless?? H'rumph!
Posted by: Feckless GOPe at April 21, 2026 03:10 PM (0sNs1)
242
Regime change?
Mmm no.
Well then what?
"?..."
Posted by: Zek
-----
Fuck Sowell, he should stay in his lane, economics.
Mmm no.
Well then what?
"?..."
Posted by: Zek
-----
Fuck Sowell, he should stay in his lane, economics.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:10 PM (YvvFZ)
243
213 ‘Benny Johnson Is Gay’: Former Musk Mistress Ashley St Clair's Viral Video Sparks Speculation
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM
This is provably false. He doesn't work at the Bulwark.
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:03 PM
This is provably false. He doesn't work at the Bulwark.
Posted by: Frank Barone at April 21, 2026 03:11 PM (IifOV)
244
> Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has resigned from Congress ahead of possible expulsion.
###
Oh, no...
Anyway...
###
Oh, no...
Anyway...
Posted by: Most people at April 21, 2026 03:11 PM (2Ez/1)
245
Errbody wants to be big, nobody wants to lift no heavy ass weight.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (03/BH)
The first at the door is guaranteed to get shot.
Nobody wants to go first.
Posted by: XTC
*Kicks door. Frags out.
No one gets shot.
Posted by: sifty boones at April 21, 2026 02:56 PM (03/BH)
The first at the door is guaranteed to get shot.
Nobody wants to go first.
Posted by: XTC
*Kicks door. Frags out.
No one gets shot.
Posted by: rickb223 at April 21, 2026 03:12 PM (8YpvS)
246
Said this from the beginning - all the Iranian regime has to do to win is survive. Nothing else matters to them, and the more Trump escalates, the worse it gets for him. Supposedly, Vance had a deal when he came back from Pakistan the last time, and Trump pissed on it, so here we are.
Posted by: Ex Rex Reeder at April 21, 2026 03:12 PM (QaH55)
247
Shit, I'm sorry. I didn't know peckerless pete was banned.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM
Peckerless? Did he finally wear it off?
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM
Peckerless? Did he finally wear it off?
Posted by: J. Random Moron at April 21, 2026 03:12 PM (0sNs1)
248
246 Said this from the beginning - all the Iranian regime has to do to win is survive. Nothing else matters to them, and the more Trump escalates, the worse it gets for him. Supposedly, Vance had a deal when he came back from Pakistan the last time, and Trump pissed on it, so here we are.
Posted by: Ex Rex Reeder at April 21, 2026 03:12 PM (QaH55)
=======
Wut?
Vance said...in Islamabad, that there was no deal.
Posted by: Ex Rex Reeder at April 21, 2026 03:12 PM (QaH55)
=======
Wut?
Vance said...in Islamabad, that there was no deal.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:13 PM (O35xg)
249
This is the game learned by moslems from the teachings of koran. They can't be honest dealers, or truthful negotiators, it would be a sin for them.
Posted by: Eromero at April 21, 2026 03:13 PM (LHPAg)
250
244 > Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has resigned from Congress ahead of possible expulsion.
And Republican Nancy Mace is trying to get a fellow republican Corey Mills thrown out of office.
And Republican Nancy Mace is trying to get a fellow republican Corey Mills thrown out of office.
Posted by: Frank Barone at April 21, 2026 03:13 PM (IifOV)
251
Eventually the Italians hung Mussolini from a light post. The Iranian youth need to step it up when it's time. Trump/Bibi softened the IRGC up.
Posted by: Frank Barone at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (IifOV)
They partisans actually shot them and then hung them from the marquee of a filling station afterwards.
Posted by: Frank Barone at April 21, 2026 03:02 PM (IifOV)
They partisans actually shot them and then hung them from the marquee of a filling station afterwards.
Posted by: Kindltot at April 21, 2026 03:13 PM (rbvCR)
252
Said this from the beginning - all the Iranian regime has to do to win is survive.
==
they are trying ! but Trump is suffocating them
==
they are trying ! but Trump is suffocating them
Posted by: runner at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM (GD0B3)
253
But as long as the regime knows it can slaughter any opposition at will, I'm not so sure any real resistance from within will form.
Posted by: Lex at April 21, 2026 03:06 PM (l5xX+)
Yup... and UK and Australia giving up their guns a couple decades ago led to? Oh... forced Covid camps in Australia... and we all see what is happening in the UK.
Posted by: Lex at April 21, 2026 03:06 PM (l5xX+)
Yup... and UK and Australia giving up their guns a couple decades ago led to? Oh... forced Covid camps in Australia... and we all see what is happening in the UK.
Posted by: Romeo13 at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM (mP0Kj)
254
Wut?
Vance said...in Islamabad, that there was no deal.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:13 PM (O35xg)
He made offers to them he was not supposed to make.
Vance said...in Islamabad, that there was no deal.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:13 PM (O35xg)
He made offers to them he was not supposed to make.
Posted by: runner at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM (GD0B3)
255
*Kicks door. Frags out.
No one gets shot.
Posted by: rickb223 at April 21, 2026 03:12 PM (8YpvS)
Grenades are your friend.
No one gets shot.
Posted by: rickb223 at April 21, 2026 03:12 PM (8YpvS)
Grenades are your friend.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM (snZF9)
256
That Iran place knows that Trump lies and cannot bee trusted trusted. Trump lied to are bkank presdent and they does not likes this two.
Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, Vt at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM (UxJW+)
257
An Amazon spokesperson told Blaze News, "We’ve resolved an error that briefly affected the availability of a paperback listing of The Camp of the Saints, and the title is now restored."
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:15 PM (RHGPo)
258
WTI, Brent, and other oils trade at different levels all the time. It is a global marketplace, but different varieties from different places have different prices all the time for an assortment of reasons.
==
And one effects the other.
If this has no effect, why have energy prices dramatically increased in the US since this conflict started?
It's obviously financial speculation, but there are actual shortages going on abroad. Petrochemical and other manufacturing has been shut down. Countries are rationing supplies for specific uses.Force majeure being implemented.
It's not just psychological.
==
And one effects the other.
If this has no effect, why have energy prices dramatically increased in the US since this conflict started?
It's obviously financial speculation, but there are actual shortages going on abroad. Petrochemical and other manufacturing has been shut down. Countries are rationing supplies for specific uses.Force majeure being implemented.
It's not just psychological.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:16 PM (eIzlH)
259
"Trump sent in reinforcements to the region because he has no intention of striking again. He's so desperate for a deal."
-same people who thought Trump wouldn't strike in the first place when he first put the carrier strike group in the region
-same people who thought Trump wouldn't strike in the first place when he first put the carrier strike group in the region
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (O35xg)
260
I sure hope the plan includes bombing the hell out of those islands that are part of their "toll booth"
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (n5tGW)
261
You have to stop believing this Neoconservative propaganda that people in the Middle East are ready to overthrow their governments and have democracy whiskey sexy.
Posted by: Ave knows Trump fucked up really bad at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM
Why? I mean, we continue to kill leaders and break things regardless. I see no need to blackpill before something bad actually happens.
Posted by: Ave knows Trump fucked up really bad at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM
Why? I mean, we continue to kill leaders and break things regardless. I see no need to blackpill before something bad actually happens.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (4NO2D)
262
I find it peculiar that the U.S. public opinion can have such an unpopular view over an Air war where there's negligile risk to U.S. service personnel. This is a world of difference to the Afghan and Iraq wars. Air wars like this basically are free shots against an enemy.
Posted by: Serious Cat at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (xqQi7)
21 The US media, based in New York is the best friend a mullah could have.
Posted by: connected and litigious
I find your comments interconnected. Both the media and Democrats are doing their usual hit jobs against Trump and his administration by painting action against Iran as a war crime, incompetent, danger to our military, etc. etc. anything to damage these operations in the minds of Americans and to taint the midterms. To hell with America and to Iranian citizens. I don't know what the correct action is - maybe let them twist in the wind and turn to domestic policies but I fear for the Iranian populace in the meantime. I don't know.
Posted by: Serious Cat at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (xqQi7)
21 The US media, based in New York is the best friend a mullah could have.
Posted by: connected and litigious
I find your comments interconnected. Both the media and Democrats are doing their usual hit jobs against Trump and his administration by painting action against Iran as a war crime, incompetent, danger to our military, etc. etc. anything to damage these operations in the minds of Americans and to taint the midterms. To hell with America and to Iranian citizens. I don't know what the correct action is - maybe let them twist in the wind and turn to domestic policies but I fear for the Iranian populace in the meantime. I don't know.
Posted by: Cheri at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (oiNtH)
263
Time to just level the place and unfortunately inflict pain on the population to the point they say enough and revolt against the current government.
Posted by: Jackson K. at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (X7dyz)
264
Southern Poverty Law Center says it's being 'targeted' by Trump administration
... crocodile tears galore
... crocodile tears galore
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (RHGPo)
265
Grenades are your friend.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM
Until the pin is pulled, and the handle released.
Then Mr. Grenade is not your friend.
Posted by: Berserker-Dragonheads Division at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM
Until the pin is pulled, and the handle released.
Then Mr. Grenade is not your friend.
Posted by: J. Random Drill Instructor at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (0sNs1)
266
Marcus T, Maduro wasn't really the head of "the Bolivarian state" he was their errand boy, and that was what he was chosen for.
He was run by the security and generals.
Trump gave Delcy Rodriguez the chance to be in charge and she liked the idea.
The analogy in Iran is that Trump is trying the same thing, as the civil government and the regular army were controlled by the IRGC and their militia and forces, and should they see the chance to get free they will act.
He was run by the security and generals.
Trump gave Delcy Rodriguez the chance to be in charge and she liked the idea.
The analogy in Iran is that Trump is trying the same thing, as the civil government and the regular army were controlled by the IRGC and their militia and forces, and should they see the chance to get free they will act.
Posted by: Kindltot at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (rbvCR)
267
I knew this would be along shortly ...
CNN's Audie Cornish Pushes Sexism Angle on Trump Cabinet Departures
Posted by: SMOD
=============
She's late. First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom already played that tune. Video is out there.
I knew this would be along shortly ...
CNN's Audie Cornish Pushes Sexism Angle on Trump Cabinet Departures
Posted by: SMOD
=============
She's late. First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom already played that tune. Video is out there.
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (n7rxJ)
268
China may have a say. They are not going to like seeing the stuff they built blown up.
Again Trump can say, "did you not see I tried?"
Again Trump can say, "did you not see I tried?"
Posted by: connected and litigious at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (cS1cw)
269
I sure hope the plan includes bombing the hell out of those islands that are part of their "toll booth"
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (n5tGW)
__________
Then we won't need a shitload of dimes.
I sure hope the plan includes bombing the hell out of those islands that are part of their "toll booth"
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (n5tGW)
__________
Then we won't need a shitload of dimes.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (tgvbd)
270
260 "Trump sent in reinforcements to the region because he has no intention of striking again. He's so desperate for a deal."
-same people who thought Trump wouldn't strike in the first place when he first put the carrier strike group in the region
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (O35xg)
-----------
Same goes for Venezuela.
-same people who thought Trump wouldn't strike in the first place when he first put the carrier strike group in the region
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (O35xg)
-----------
Same goes for Venezuela.
Posted by: WisRich at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (G0vdT)
271
Keep on hammering them then
Posted by: Skip at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (Ia/+0)
Posted by: Ian S. at April 21, 2026 03:19 PM (2ocoG)
273
263 I find it peculiar that the U.S. public opinion can have such an unpopular view over an Air war where there's negligile risk to U.S. service personnel. This is a world of difference to the Afghan and Iraq wars. Air wars like this basically are free shots against an enemy.
Posted by: Serious Cat at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (xqQi7)
Also this is not going to be another "Vietnam"...
Posted by: Serious Cat at April 21, 2026 02:23 PM (xqQi7)
Also this is not going to be another "Vietnam"...
Posted by: Jackson K. at April 21, 2026 03:19 PM (X7dyz)
274
Nud
Nud
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 03:19 PM (tgvbd)
275
259
It's obviously financial speculation, but there are actual shortages going on abroad. Petrochemical and other manufacturing has been shut down. Countries are rationing supplies for specific uses.Force majeure being implemented.
It's not just psychological.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:16 PM (eIzlH)
=======
Gas prices in the US were definitely psychological. They shot up and are only slowly going down, but the shoot up was never reflective of anything but the handful of days when oil prices spiked to about $120, and even then gas prices were too high. It's just gouging, and it will eventually work itself out.
The manufacturing issue is mostly a China issue. Their oil they were getting from places like Iran and Venezuela they were getting for about $30 a barrel. Now they have to enter the regular market to make it up. They're buying from us now.
So, yes, there are upward pressures. I never said there weren't. However, there are massive downward pressures at play as well.
I've said it for a while, but by summer the only people who remember the oil spike will be US shale oil producers who look at their new Bugattis they bought when they uncapped their wells.
It's obviously financial speculation, but there are actual shortages going on abroad. Petrochemical and other manufacturing has been shut down. Countries are rationing supplies for specific uses.Force majeure being implemented.
It's not just psychological.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:16 PM (eIzlH)
=======
Gas prices in the US were definitely psychological. They shot up and are only slowly going down, but the shoot up was never reflective of anything but the handful of days when oil prices spiked to about $120, and even then gas prices were too high. It's just gouging, and it will eventually work itself out.
The manufacturing issue is mostly a China issue. Their oil they were getting from places like Iran and Venezuela they were getting for about $30 a barrel. Now they have to enter the regular market to make it up. They're buying from us now.
So, yes, there are upward pressures. I never said there weren't. However, there are massive downward pressures at play as well.
I've said it for a while, but by summer the only people who remember the oil spike will be US shale oil producers who look at their new Bugattis they bought when they uncapped their wells.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:20 PM (O35xg)
276
I hope blowing up power plants and bridges is a decoy and we have some better targets...
Posted by: It's me donna at April 21, 2026 03:20 PM (K88SD)
277
If we can tighten up the blockade so NOBODY gets through - Iran is going to have a hard time surviving. Their oil wells will become polluted with water. They won't have any cash coming in from selling oil.
And to hell with bridges and power plants. Flatten Kharg and any other island within striking distance to the Strait of Hormuz. If no two stones are stacked on top of each other, it's pretty hard for them to launch attacks at passing ship traffic.
And to hell with bridges and power plants. Flatten Kharg and any other island within striking distance to the Strait of Hormuz. If no two stones are stacked on top of each other, it's pretty hard for them to launch attacks at passing ship traffic.
Posted by: Our Country is Screwed at April 21, 2026 03:20 PM (N39Ws)
278
It appears we have to keep going after IRGC leadership to get them more receptive.
Posted by: WisRich at April 21, 2026 03:20 PM (G0vdT)
279
Anyone here ever thought about dating Benny Johnson? If not... Who.Fucking. Cares.
Posted by: Field Marshal Zhukov, now, where does a war hero get some lubrication around here? at April 21, 2026 03:20 PM (wBaIH)
280
First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom already played that tune
It got overshadowed by her "I've killed someone, so I'm just like you black people" thing.
It got overshadowed by her "I've killed someone, so I'm just like you black people" thing.
Posted by: Ian S. at April 21, 2026 03:20 PM (2ocoG)
281
104 I believe the 26 ships has been debunked as Iranian propaganda
It was actually put out by Lloyd's List. The Pentagon called it false information. If ships got past the blockade, there was a reason we let them pass.
There is no way a large ship can go unnoticed by USN.
I flew the P-3C out of Oman during Operation Earnest Will. That aircraft had 1980s technology ISAR (radar). In a calm-ish sea state, that radar could detect a submarine periscope sticking up out of the water from up to 20 miles away.
Imagine the capabilities of the newest generation ISAR on the P-8, which are no doubt flying around the clock on surveillance missions, as my squadron did during Earnest Will.
No one is sneaking past.
It was actually put out by Lloyd's List. The Pentagon called it false information. If ships got past the blockade, there was a reason we let them pass.
There is no way a large ship can go unnoticed by USN.
I flew the P-3C out of Oman during Operation Earnest Will. That aircraft had 1980s technology ISAR (radar). In a calm-ish sea state, that radar could detect a submarine periscope sticking up out of the water from up to 20 miles away.
Imagine the capabilities of the newest generation ISAR on the P-8, which are no doubt flying around the clock on surveillance missions, as my squadron did during Earnest Will.
No one is sneaking past.
Posted by: one hour sober at April 21, 2026 03:20 PM (Y1sOo)
282
I sure hope the plan includes bombing the hell out of those islands that are part of their "toll booth"
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (n5tGW)
__________
Then we won't need a shitload of dimes.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (tgvbd)
I thought they only accepted quarters….
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (n5tGW)
__________
Then we won't need a shitload of dimes.
Posted by: Hadrian the Seventh at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (tgvbd)
I thought they only accepted quarters….
Posted by: LinusVanPelt at April 21, 2026 03:21 PM (xT8gx)
283
Also this is not going to be another "Vietnam"...
Posted by: Jackson K. at April 21, 2026 03:19 PM
It is boggling to realize that the Vietnam War is further in time from high school kids today, than WWI was from my generation. I am surprised that the VW experience has any relevance any more.
Posted by: Jackson K. at April 21, 2026 03:19 PM
It is boggling to realize that the Vietnam War is further in time from high school kids today, than WWI was from my generation. I am surprised that the VW experience has any relevance any more.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 03:22 PM (4NO2D)
284
277 I hope blowing up power plants and bridges is a decoy and we have some better targets...
Taking out the electricity and putting their cities in the dark will be extremely painful to the current Raghead regime.
Taking out the electricity and putting their cities in the dark will be extremely painful to the current Raghead regime.
Posted by: Jackson K. at April 21, 2026 03:22 PM (X7dyz)
285
Can someone explain this to me?
How is Iran extracting a toll and getting those funds from large corporations that ship this cargo? That has to be some large banks involved. Can't just be "crypto". Seems like low hanging fruit to cut that off.
How is Iran extracting a toll and getting those funds from large corporations that ship this cargo? That has to be some large banks involved. Can't just be "crypto". Seems like low hanging fruit to cut that off.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:23 PM (eIzlH)
286
264 Time to just level the place and unfortunately inflict pain on the population to the point they say enough and revolt against the current government.
Posted by: Jackson K. at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (X7dyz)
Our own Declaration of Independence says the People have both a Right, and a DUTY, to change their government if needed.
I feel for the Iranian people... but they are the ones who are going to have to fix this.
Posted by: Jackson K. at April 21, 2026 03:18 PM (X7dyz)
Our own Declaration of Independence says the People have both a Right, and a DUTY, to change their government if needed.
I feel for the Iranian people... but they are the ones who are going to have to fix this.
Posted by: Romeo13 at April 21, 2026 03:23 PM (mP0Kj)
287
285 Can someone explain this to me?
How is Iran extracting a toll and getting those funds from large corporations that ship this cargo? That has to be some large banks involved. Can't just be "crypto". Seems like low hanging fruit to cut that off.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:23 PM (eIzlH)
=======
They're not.
They might have gotten two ships to pay about 5 weeks ago. But nothing since.
No one is paying.
How is Iran extracting a toll and getting those funds from large corporations that ship this cargo? That has to be some large banks involved. Can't just be "crypto". Seems like low hanging fruit to cut that off.
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:23 PM (eIzlH)
=======
They're not.
They might have gotten two ships to pay about 5 weeks ago. But nothing since.
No one is paying.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:23 PM (O35xg)
288
Posted by: Ave knows Trump fucked up really bad at April 21, 2026 03:14 PM (c7Mix)
wtf is this gibberish? It's got a long way to go to be authentic frontier gibberish.
Like a glitch program, run by a dunce in a turd world bot shop
wtf is this gibberish? It's got a long way to go to be authentic frontier gibberish.
Like a glitch program, run by a dunce in a turd world bot shop
Posted by: OneEyedJack at April 21, 2026 03:24 PM (zafwz)
289
Nobody's mentioned the War Powers Act. The 60-day "limit" is approaching. Congress has to vote to extend it.....will they?
Posted by: Kareem of Wheat at April 21, 2026 02:52 PM
Congress is not involved in this. They passed the AUMF in 2001 that let's the president fight terrorists as he sees fit. The IRGC was declared a terrorist organization in 2019. Trump does not need congressional approval to keep bombing them.
Posted by: Kareem of Wheat at April 21, 2026 02:52 PM
Congress is not involved in this. They passed the AUMF in 2001 that let's the president fight terrorists as he sees fit. The IRGC was declared a terrorist organization in 2019. Trump does not need congressional approval to keep bombing them.
Posted by: Mister Scott (Formerly GWS) at April 21, 2026 03:24 PM (0N4FZ)
290
"Southern Poverty Law Center says it's being 'targeted' by Trump administration"
Like they have never targeted anybody.
Like they have never targeted anybody.
Posted by: fd at April 21, 2026 03:24 PM (vFG9F)
291
can't Trump just wait out the Iranian regime until they go broke?
Posted by: Jose at April 21, 2026 03:24 PM (V6W16)
292
I find your comments interconnected. Both the media and Democrats are doing their usual hit jobs against Trump and his administration by painting action against Iran as a war crime, incompetent, danger to our military, etc. etc. anything to damage these operations in the minds of Americans and to taint the midterms. To hell with America and to Iranian citizens. I don't know what the correct action is - maybe let them twist in the wind and turn to domestic policies but I fear for the Iranian populace in the meantime. I don't know.
Posted by: Cheri at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (oiNtH)
I think the answer is that governments/systems like ours cannot survive when one side rejects the rules of the game.
Posted by: Cheri at April 21, 2026 03:17 PM (oiNtH)
I think the answer is that governments/systems like ours cannot survive when one side rejects the rules of the game.
Posted by: Chairborne!...Desk From Above! at April 21, 2026 03:25 PM (28ePU)
293
It's why WTI isn't trading at $70, but it's also why there's a $10 difference between Brent and WTI right now.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror
---
mmm, smell that light, sweet crude.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror
---
mmm, smell that light, sweet crude.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:25 PM (YvvFZ)
294
280 First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom already played that tune.
What is it with these Commies and preferred pronouns ??
I thought Gov. Hair-gel was married ????
What is it with these Commies and preferred pronouns ??
I thought Gov. Hair-gel was married ????
Posted by: Jackson K. at April 21, 2026 03:26 PM (X7dyz)
295
How come there's not a Northern Affluence Law Center?
Posted by: I gotta ask at April 21, 2026 03:26 PM (2Ez/1)
296
It is boggling to realize that the Vietnam War is further in time from high school kids today, than WWI was from my generation. I am surprised that the VW experience has any relevance any more.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 03:22 PM (4NO2D)
Scarier to me? since 1959 (year I was born) the US Military has had 4 years of Peace... 1975 - 1979.
Every other year we have been in some type of combat, somewhere.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 03:22 PM (4NO2D)
Scarier to me? since 1959 (year I was born) the US Military has had 4 years of Peace... 1975 - 1979.
Every other year we have been in some type of combat, somewhere.
Posted by: Romeo13 at April 21, 2026 03:26 PM (mP0Kj)
297
291 can't Trump just wait out the Iranian regime until they go broke?
Posted by: Jose at April 21, 2026 03:24 PM (V6W16)
In theory, yes. Iran under blockade will collapse over time.
Posted by: Jose at April 21, 2026 03:24 PM (V6W16)
In theory, yes. Iran under blockade will collapse over time.
Posted by: Red Turban Someguy at April 21, 2026 03:27 PM (okun6)
298
At some point, Trump and the Crown Prince will call for the revolt.
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:59 PM (4NO2D)
====
This. The Shah will call on the Army. The Army will arm the people. This regime will evaporate like mist.
"Who me? No no no I was never Basij neighbor-joon!"
Posted by: toby928(c) at April 21, 2026 02:59 PM (4NO2D)
====
This. The Shah will call on the Army. The Army will arm the people. This regime will evaporate like mist.
"Who me? No no no I was never Basij neighbor-joon!"
Posted by: San Franpsycho at April 21, 2026 03:27 PM (RIvkX)
299
Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL)
Hyphenated name tells me all I need to know about this person...
Hyphenated name tells me all I need to know about this person...
Posted by: Jackson K. at April 21, 2026 03:27 PM (X7dyz)
300
Theres ships paying the toll:
https://shorturl.at/fktJO
"Shipowners from Greece, China, India and Pakistan are negotiating crossings with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s powerful paramilitary group, according to brokers and shipowners. Toll payments, which have to be negotiated in advance, go as high as $2 million for the biggest supertankers. Iranian ships are exempt."
https://shorturl.at/fktJO
"Shipowners from Greece, China, India and Pakistan are negotiating crossings with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s powerful paramilitary group, according to brokers and shipowners. Toll payments, which have to be negotiated in advance, go as high as $2 million for the biggest supertankers. Iranian ships are exempt."
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:27 PM (eIzlH)
301
The mullahs are never going to hand over their nukes, or their capability to make them. Not under any circumstances.
That has to be an American assumption going in to any "negotiations."
The mullahs are never going to hand over their nukes, or their capability to make them. Not under any circumstances.
That has to be an American assumption going in to any "negotiations."
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 03:27 PM (n7rxJ)
302
To hell with America and to Iranian citizens. I don't know what the correct action is - maybe let them twist in the wind and turn to domestic policies but I fear for the Iranian populace in the meantime. I don't know.
Posted by: Cheri
---
We could arrest them and put them in J6 cells.
Posted by: Cheri
---
We could arrest them and put them in J6 cells.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:28 PM (YvvFZ)
303
That has to be an American assumption going in to any "negotiations."
Posted by: Blonde Morticia
---
Negotiations allow Trump to say, 'see, I tried'.
Posted by: Blonde Morticia
---
Negotiations allow Trump to say, 'see, I tried'.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:29 PM (YvvFZ)
304
300 Theres ships paying the toll:
https://shorturl.at/fktJO
"Shipowners from Greece, China, India and Pakistan are negotiating crossings with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s powerful paramilitary group, according to brokers and shipowners. Toll payments, which have to be negotiated in advance, go as high as $2 million for the biggest supertankers. Iranian ships are exempt."
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:27 PM (eIzlH)
======
Nothing in this article says that anyone is paying it.
Not a ship name. Just rules that the IRGC have said are in effect that...no one follows.
https://shorturl.at/fktJO
"Shipowners from Greece, China, India and Pakistan are negotiating crossings with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s powerful paramilitary group, according to brokers and shipowners. Toll payments, which have to be negotiated in advance, go as high as $2 million for the biggest supertankers. Iranian ships are exempt."
Posted by: Leupold at April 21, 2026 03:27 PM (eIzlH)
======
Nothing in this article says that anyone is paying it.
Not a ship name. Just rules that the IRGC have said are in effect that...no one follows.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:30 PM (O35xg)
305
The mullahs are never going to hand over their nukes, or their capability to make them. Not under any circumstances.
That has to be an American assumption going in to any "negotiations."
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 03:27 PM (n7rxJ)
Any "agreement" has to demand that they renounce Taqiyyah. And of course, even if they renounce it, they'll still be lying.
That has to be an American assumption going in to any "negotiations."
Posted by: Blonde Morticia at April 21, 2026 03:27 PM (n7rxJ)
Any "agreement" has to demand that they renounce Taqiyyah. And of course, even if they renounce it, they'll still be lying.
Posted by: Chairborne!...Desk From Above! at April 21, 2026 03:31 PM (tWc/t)
306
229 Is this not proof of what a disarmed citizenry means? If the average Iranian had guns, this would have been over long ago. Even if the government has more firepower, it would have given them pause and perhaps some regions could expel IRGC, et al and then there could have been more movement to regime change. But as long as the regime knows it can slaughter any opposition at will, I'm not so sure any real resistance from within will form.
Posted by: Lex
That's why I think Israel and the US should/will/is smuggle/ing arms to internal Iranian resistance groups, possibly through Kurdistan.
This may very well be a "Long March"-type revolution, rather than a quick-strike revolution. Mao didn't just capture Shanghai one random day and boom he win the war. No -- the Long March started in 1922, which was 27 years (!!) before his incredibly slow-moving revolution finally achieved victory. We want a band of Iranian rebels to storm into Tehran, execution a few leaders, and declare the mullahcracy over, in perhaps one quick afternoon of fighting. Instead, it may take years, either inch-by-inch geographical seizure by rebel forces, or little-by-little internal sabotage.
Posted by: Lex
That's why I think Israel and the US should/will/is smuggle/ing arms to internal Iranian resistance groups, possibly through Kurdistan.
This may very well be a "Long March"-type revolution, rather than a quick-strike revolution. Mao didn't just capture Shanghai one random day and boom he win the war. No -- the Long March started in 1922, which was 27 years (!!) before his incredibly slow-moving revolution finally achieved victory. We want a band of Iranian rebels to storm into Tehran, execution a few leaders, and declare the mullahcracy over, in perhaps one quick afternoon of fighting. Instead, it may take years, either inch-by-inch geographical seizure by rebel forces, or little-by-little internal sabotage.
Posted by: zombie at April 21, 2026 03:33 PM (Av6i5)
307
We have more sea, air and man power in that location now than when the bombing began.
At this moment we have double assets in the region than at the beginning.
We're going to have some Clausewitzian negotiations and the IRGC will be the recipients. Those shitheads in Iraq too.
At this moment we have double assets in the region than at the beginning.
We're going to have some Clausewitzian negotiations and the IRGC will be the recipients. Those shitheads in Iraq too.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:33 PM (YvvFZ)
308
From the beginnings of Air Power, this has been the dilemma. Air power alone won't win a war, no matter what Douhet and every other air power theorist thought.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur
Fat Man and Little Boy, Curtis LeMay a more than a few B-29s beg to differ.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur
Fat Man and Little Boy, Curtis LeMay a more than a few B-29s beg to differ.
Posted by: Joe Mama at April 21, 2026 03:34 PM (TezPK)
309
Children who do not reach the age of 18 before January 1, 2027 will never be permitted to buy cigarettes or tobacco products in the UK, once a new law that has now completely cleared parliament gets royal assent from King Charles III. The rules will apply in all four of the UK's constituent countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This will effectively mean that people born on or after January 1, 2009 will never be eligible to buy them
Posted by: SMOD at April 21, 2026 03:35 PM (RHGPo)
310
Any "agreement" has to demand that they renounce Taqiyyah. And of course, even if they renounce it, they'll still be lying.
Posted by: Chairborne!...Desk From Above!
---
Renouncing taqiyyah is taqiyyah.
Shoot them.
Posted by: Chairborne!...Desk From Above!
---
Renouncing taqiyyah is taqiyyah.
Shoot them.
Posted by: Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ at April 21, 2026 03:36 PM (YvvFZ)
311
This ceasefire was just a minor reset. I never expected any negotiations to resolve anything. Phase two; take out their capacity to transfer power, - substations, - not generation yet. Take out their capacity to store and stockpile finished product from the refineries, but not the refineries. Leave the bridges for phase three. Take out a couple of dams and reservoirs.
Posted by: Rev. Wishbone at April 21, 2026 03:37 PM (Fbc0I)
312
I'm more optimistic. I think more is at play here. From the very beginning of the operation, Israeli intelligence has been information that has led to deadly accuracy with strikes. It is imperative for them to finish this war, so it's not like we're at this alone.
They could be doing things in Iran behind the scenes during this ceasefire (arming a rebels, locating remaining leadership, etc.) Let's see how it plays out before we start getting pessimistic.
They could be doing things in Iran behind the scenes during this ceasefire (arming a rebels, locating remaining leadership, etc.) Let's see how it plays out before we start getting pessimistic.
Posted by: Nutsy at April 21, 2026 03:42 PM (q1ntL)
313
I've said it for a while, but by summer the only people who remember the oil spike will be US shale oil producers who look at their new Bugattis they bought when they uncapped their wells.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:20 PM (O35xg)
The $6/gallon diesel is going to be a problem. Nothing in our economy is done without diesel fuel being involved in some way shape or form.
I'm still sour that somehow diesel split from unleaded so much, when it used to be on par or less than premium.
Posted by: TheJamesMadison, discovering British horror with Hammer Films at April 21, 2026 03:20 PM (O35xg)
The $6/gallon diesel is going to be a problem. Nothing in our economy is done without diesel fuel being involved in some way shape or form.
I'm still sour that somehow diesel split from unleaded so much, when it used to be on par or less than premium.
Posted by: Defenestratus at April 21, 2026 03:43 PM (WYStd)
314
I dont think the regime fears death, civilian casualties, or infrastructure damag, but I do think they fear being broke.
____
There are ways for leadership to avoid being broke while their people suffer in abject poverty. Ask Cuba and North Korea for tips on how this might be accomplished.
____
There are ways for leadership to avoid being broke while their people suffer in abject poverty. Ask Cuba and North Korea for tips on how this might be accomplished.
Posted by: Chuck Martel at April 21, 2026 03:49 PM (Dv3i1)
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