The Monty Hall Problem

A great many of you remember the game show, “Let’s Make a Deal,” and many of you are probably familiar with “The Monty Hall Problem,” named for the show’s host.

This is a logic problem that seems to have an illogical answer, but I finally figured out a way to understand it.

Let’s say you are a contestant on “Let’s Make a Deal.” Monty tells you that behind one door is a new car, but behind each of the other two doors is a goat. You have to choose one door. We can all agree that your odds are 1 in 3 of choosing the door with the new car. For argument’s sake, let’s say you choose door #3.

Whether or not you chose the door which hides the car, there is a 100% chance that there is a goat behind at least one of the other two doors. Monty then opens one of those doors, revealing a goat. In this case we’ll say it’s door #1. Monty then offers you the opportunity to change your door from door #3 to door #2. Should you do so?

The answer is “Yes.” Your odds will increase from 33% to 67% if you switch.

When I first heard about this, I could not wrap my brain around it. In my mind, there is a 1 in 3 chance I chose the correct door, and since Monty always had a door with a goat behind it to challenge my initial choice, I couldn’t see how my odds would change once Monty revealed a goat. So I actually played it out, and that’s when it all made sense.

If I initially chose the correct door - a 33% chance - I would always lose once I changed doors after being shown the goat.

But if I initially chose one of the two wrong doors - a 67% chance - I would always switch to the correct door after being shown the goat.

Therefore, my odds switch from 33% to 67% of correctly choosing the new car.

So back to our example, if you chose door #3 and the car was actually behind door #3, you would lose after switching. But if you chose door #3 and the car was behind either door #1 or door #2, you would be guaranteed to choose the winning door after the goat was revealed and you switched doors.

Here’s a little of Monty’s dealmaking. Also, open thread.

[buck.throckmorton at protonmail dot com]

Posted by: Buck Throckmorton at 08:06 PM

Comments

(Jump to bottom of comments)

1 I was told there would be no probability and statistics.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:09 PM (/y8xj)

2 I come here after a hellish week and you are doing MATH?!? *shakes head sadly* Mister Throckmorton, I thought better of you.

Posted by: NaughtyPine at May 01, 2025 08:09 PM (fxCK2)

3 2nd!

Posted by: Angzarr the Cromulent at May 01, 2025 08:10 PM (XMwZJ)

4 So... is this related to the Conclave? A goat, a new car, or a pope?

Posted by: NaughtyPine at May 01, 2025 08:11 PM (fxCK2)

5 Now it's good evening and all but good night

Posted by: Skip at May 01, 2025 08:11 PM (ypFCm)

6 I was told there would be goats.

Posted by: Ahmed Pashtunwala at May 01, 2025 08:12 PM (gKWVE)

7 One of my favorite logic problems.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:12 PM (aOqEy)

8
I loved Let's Make a Deal. It was so much fun.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 08:12 PM (3ek7K)

9
Goodnight Skip, you hardworking man!

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 08:13 PM (3ek7K)

10 I read someone describe the 'clearer' situation this way. What if Monty had ten, or 100 doors. You choose 1, for your one precent. Monty then opens 98 other doors besides yours leaving one. You'd switch right away, right?

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:14 PM (8avO+)

11 My deal behind curtain #1 is having to go to work Sunday afternoon and missing F-1 in Miami.

Posted by: Skip at May 01, 2025 08:14 PM (ypFCm)

12 Let’s say you are a contestant on “Let’s Make a Deal.” Monty tells you that behind one door is a new car, but behind each of the other two doors is a goat

Dating game.

Posted by: Mohammed M Mohammed at May 01, 2025 08:15 PM (SYD5S)

13 open thread, so
I got willowed.

213 so here's a Post Office experience:

ordered some clothes for granddaughter from LandsEnd. Shipped from WI, made it to Indy. Then it seemed to get stuck in Indy.
For days. But then it got unstuck and moved on to . . . Puerto Rico.

MrTea contacted the PO, who did not respond, until one day he got a survey asking how their customer service was. He responded with a scathing reply that there had been NO customer service, or even a reply.
BUT, suddenly, the package found its way back to the States and is now here in town, supposedly coming our way tomorrow.

Puerto Rico

Posted by: TecumsehTea at May 01, 2025 08:15 PM (Eo96p)

14 I remember watching Let Make a Deal all summer as a kid.

Posted by: Skip at May 01, 2025 08:15 PM (ypFCm)

15 Good evening everyone.

Jonny, Tell her what she's won!!

Well Monty, A Speed Queen washer and dryer pair, a year's supply of Alpo Dog Food, and A. BRAND. NEW. CAR!!!!!

Posted by: Tonypete at May 01, 2025 08:16 PM (vKNmo)

16 Never knew it was a casino with odds

Posted by: Skip at May 01, 2025 08:16 PM (ypFCm)

17 I had a gas stove that was a prize on Let's Make a Deal circa 1976 i saw it on the Buzzr channel. LoL. A Caloric. It went to the landfill last year. It was a good stove.

Posted by: ScaryMary at May 01, 2025 08:16 PM (uksS7)

18 To my admitted amateur understanding, it sounds like there's a Gambler's Fallacy at work in the Monty Hall Problem.

The second choice is separate from the first, a choice between two doors, making it a 50/50 chance of success.

Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 08:16 PM (i0F8b)

19 Can't keep my eyes open any longer
Have a great evening everyone

Posted by: Skip at May 01, 2025 08:17 PM (ypFCm)

20 The second choice is separate from the first, a choice between two doors, making it a 50/50 chance of success.

Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 08:16 PM

That's what I thought, too. Like Russian roulette towards the end.

Posted by: NaughtyPine at May 01, 2025 08:18 PM (fxCK2)

21 A 1976 Speed Queen was built like a tank. I'd take it.

Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory, red heifer owner at May 01, 2025 08:18 PM (SYD5S)

22 Anyone heard from nurse re her trip to the ER?

Posted by: Tuna at May 01, 2025 08:18 PM (lJ0H4)

23 You are a condemned prisoner.
Your crime, hanky panky with the Princess.
The King's sentence is you choose:
Two doors, behind one a beautiful lady you will immediately be married to.
Behind the other, a hungry tiger.

You look at the princess, she subtly nods toward the door on the right.

Which door fo you open?

Posted by: vmom deport deport deport at May 01, 2025 08:19 PM (XkKkf)

24 The key is in understanding that your probability of being wrong is 2/3 in the beginning and doesn't change when a door is revealed.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:19 PM (aOqEy)

25 There are all sorts of logic problems and fallacies regarding Let's Make A Deal. I am not sober enough to defend those tonight.

Posted by: ScaryMary at May 01, 2025 08:19 PM (uksS7)

26 This is a case of numbers being manipulated to give a false answer.

Once the goat is revealed, you still have 50/50 odds since you picked one of two doors. You automatically moved up from 33 to 50 percent chance of the car.

Picked right, no change = you win
Picked right, change = you lose
Picked wrong, you change = you win
Picked wrong, no change = you lose

There’s only 4 options left after you see the goat. And you only win in 1/2 of them.

Posted by: Trump at May 01, 2025 08:19 PM (O+Wek)

27 I was always fine with the goat.

Posted by: Achmed at May 01, 2025 08:20 PM (mH6SG)

28 ordered some clothes for granddaughter from LandsEnd. Shipped from WI, made it to Indy. Then it seemed to get stuck in Indy.
For days.

For some reason, the Indianapolis USPS is the pits. I sent a first class letter from Lincoln, NE on Tuesday the 22 and it arrived yesterday. The recipient tells me that this is "normal" for him.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:20 PM (/y8xj)

29 You're sure you want to go with Door #2. He say's he's staying with Door #2. Let's see what's behind Door #2!

CHARLES! NELSON! REILLY!!

Posted by: SloPitch Whiffer at May 01, 2025 08:21 PM (wzAuc)

30 Evening.

When you watch enough Arab and Dot-Indians wash their filthy feet in the sink in the men's room at truck stops and rest areas you can't help but conclude Arabs and Dot-Indians are filthy people who lack any and all consideration of others. Then they cry like children because no one likes them.

Of course I already knew Dot-Indians were total scumbags because I've worked for too many.

Dear President Trump,

Are you looking for more people to deport? Please?

Posted by: Robert at May 01, 2025 08:21 PM (ajzBr)

31 When I first heard about this, I could not wrap my brain around it. In my mind, there is a 1 in 3 chance I chose the correct door, and since Monty always had a door with a goat behind it to challenge my initial choice...

-----------------------------------

On the odds not changing on opening a door..

What if an insane Monty offered a game where he opened YOUR door? The odds sure do change then, right?

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:22 PM (8avO+)

32 Goats?

Posted by: Commissar of plenty and festive little hats at May 01, 2025 08:22 PM (vPZg0)

33 You're not 50/50 after the door reveal. That's the fallacy.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:22 PM (aOqEy)

34 Anyone heard from nurse re her trip to the ER?
Posted by: Tuna at May 01, 2025 08:18 PM (lJ0H4)

IIRC, she was getting discharged. The pain is muscular, not heart or lungs.

Posted by: Hour of the Wolf at May 01, 2025 08:22 PM (VNX3d)

35 The conclave will vote for a goat to be the next pope.

Posted by: no one of any consequence at May 01, 2025 08:22 PM (ZmEVT)

36 Monty Hall was before my time....

The Price is Right was my favorite game show...

It also seemed to incorporate some of those Monty Hall elements into the games.

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at May 01, 2025 08:23 PM (GlyvH)

37 I first learned the Monty Hall problem 25 years ago, and it similarly blew my mind. Eventually I wrapped my mind around it, and have enjoyed springing it on people for the past quarter century. My wife still refuses to admit it...

Here's how I got it through to me. Imagine there are 100 doors, not 3. And you guess one door. Then they open 98 empty doors, and ask if you want to stick to your original one, or switch. It's the same principle. Only it seems so much more obvious that your chances of picking the right door out of 100 is remote.

Posted by: Mad Max in VA at May 01, 2025 08:23 PM (8iNlE)

38 Right now I would welcome about 50 goats. I have soooo much grass.

Posted by: Ben Had at May 01, 2025 08:23 PM (D7yNd)

39 The conclave will vote for a goat to be the next pope.
Posted by: no one of any consequence at May 01, 2025 08:22 PM (ZmEVT)

You get a camel, and you get a camel, and you get a camel!

Posted by: Hour of the Wolf at May 01, 2025 08:23 PM (VNX3d)

40 Daily Mail: Democrat's 'grotesque' blanket statement about Latinos sends internet ablaze

https://tinyurl.com/23t993zv

Hank Johnson is the gift that keeps giving.

Via Instapundit.

Posted by: Robert at May 01, 2025 08:23 PM (ajzBr)

41 'Could you say more of the goats?'
A. Hamsa

Posted by: Eromero at May 01, 2025 08:24 PM (LHPAg)

42 There’s only 4 options left after you see the goat. And you only win in 1/2 of them.

This is incorrect. Play the game yourself with 3 playing cards and a second person to be Monty and you'll find that you win twice as often if you switch.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:24 PM (/y8xj)

43 >>There’s only 4 options left after you see the goat.

Fewer if you are a Muslim.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 08:24 PM (viF8m)

44 Of course I already knew Dot-Indians were total scumbags because I've worked for too many.

Preach it, brother. Diaperheads. Caste system scum.

Posted by: Commissar of plenty and festive little hats at May 01, 2025 08:24 PM (vPZg0)

45 Tuna, not cardiac or pulmonary so she was
sent home.

Posted by: Ben Had at May 01, 2025 08:25 PM (D7yNd)

46 The real solution to the Monty Gall problem?

Punch ole Monty in the face, grab the keys and the showcase girl, jump in the car and vamanos!

Posted by: Robert at May 01, 2025 08:25 PM (ajzBr)

47 Oddly, 'I got too much time on my hands' started up in my head.

Posted by: Aetius451AD work phone at May 01, 2025 08:26 PM (W/MBp)

48 Ace has done the Monty Hall thing on AOSHQ before. It was MANY years ago. I got my first/only Ace quote of my comment then. I don't remember what I said.

Posted by: irright at May 01, 2025 08:27 PM (292UM)

49 Well... given the quality of '70's cars... especially on Let's Make A Deal...

I'd take the goats.

Posted by: Martini Farmer at May 01, 2025 08:27 PM (Q4IgG)

50 Here's another way to think about it that might help. We are all agreed that on the initial pick, you are going to pick a goat 2/3 of the time. That means that 2/3 of the time, Monty has no choice which door to open since only one of "his" doors has a goat. Therefore 2/3 of the time, the door that Monty doesn't open is the winner.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:28 PM (/y8xj)

51 "Monty Haul" was also a slang term for a Dungeons & Dragons campaign where the DM handed out treasure and magical items like candy, leading to wildly unbalanced characters who could slay a dozen dragons and 50 demiliches before breakfast.

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at May 01, 2025 08:28 PM (GlyvH)

52 I wouldn't mind a 70s Torino.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:29 PM (aOqEy)

53 Monty might give you $100 if you had an egg in your purse.

Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at May 01, 2025 08:29 PM (63Dwl)

54 Hank Johnson is retarded. That is all.

Posted by: Aetius451AD work phone at May 01, 2025 08:29 PM (W/MBp)

55 The conclave will vote for a goat to be the next pope.
Posted by: no one of any consequence at May 01, 2025 08:22 PM (ZmEVT)

He will say his first mass at the BAAAAHsilica.

Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory, red heifer owner at May 01, 2025 08:29 PM (SYD5S)

56 not cardiac or pulmonary so she was
sent home.

Phew.

Posted by: Commissar of plenty and festive little hats at May 01, 2025 08:30 PM (vPZg0)

57 Of course I already knew Dot-Indians were total scumbags because I've worked for too many.

Preach it, brother. Diaperheads. Caste system scum.
Posted by: Commissar of plenty and festive little hats at May 01, 2025 08:24 PM (vPZg0)

Of course the Dot-Indians aren't trying to genocide you like the mohammedans are.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at May 01, 2025 08:30 PM (3a5ey)

58 I'd take the goats.
Posted by: Martini Farmer at May 01, 2025 08:27 PM (Q4IgG)

And you could always sell your lightly used goat to your new Muslim neighbor.

Kind of a cross between let's make a deal and love connection.

Posted by: Aetius451AD work phone at May 01, 2025 08:30 PM (W/MBp)

59 OT: Apple lost so hard in court today its VP Alex Roman may be going to PMITA Fed.

Posted by: gKWVE at May 01, 2025 08:30 PM (gKWVE)

60 This is a case of numbers being manipulated to give a false answer.

Once the goat is revealed, you still have 50/50 odds since you picked one of two doors. You automatically moved up from 33 to 50 percent chance of the car.

Picked right, no change = you win
Picked right, change = you lose
Picked wrong, you change = you win
Picked wrong, no change = you lose

There’s only 4 options left after you see the goat. And you only win in 1/2 of them.

Posted by: Trump at May 01, 2025 08:19 PM (O+Wek)

You never had 50/50 odds, since you selected one door of three.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:30 PM (8avO+)

61 Conversely, Monte could give you a freebie and show you a goat before you pick which door... Then you are at 50/50 from the first and only guess.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 08:30 PM (/lPRQ)

62 There’s only 4 options left after you see the goat. And you only win in 1/2 of them.

This is incorrect. Play the game yourself with 3 playing cards and a second person to be Monty and you'll find that you win twice as often if you switch.
Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:24 PM (/y8xj)

I’m willing to take your word for it, though damn if I understand lol

Posted by: Trump at May 01, 2025 08:31 PM (fQ92+)

63 Thanks Ben. Thank goodness it was nothing serious.

Posted by: Tuna at May 01, 2025 08:31 PM (lJ0H4)

64 I feel really bad about this but I must have missed Jewell45's passing.

I was reading the memorial a while ago and saw her name there.

Fuck cancer.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:31 PM (aOqEy)

65 Can I just take the goats?

Posted by: Guy who likes goats but won a car at May 01, 2025 08:32 PM (vFG9F)

66 I’m willing to take your word for it, though damn if I understand lol

Honestly, don't take my word for it. As Muldoon used to say, for all you know, I'm just the night clerk at 7-11. Play the game and see it for yourself.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:33 PM (/y8xj)

67 Anyone heard from nurse re her trip to the ER?
Posted by: Tuna

Got out of another date, did she?

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 08:34 PM (/lPRQ)

68 The door is a particle and a wave.

Posted by: Weasel at May 01, 2025 08:34 PM (Axc90)

69 I hope the Catholic morons get a good Pope....I don't understand the conclave and whatever. I do understand the Pope is a wold leader of consequence. So God Bless.

Posted by: ScaryMary at May 01, 2025 08:34 PM (uksS7)

70 We bne alls thinks Presdent obama shoots be the next US UN Abassidoor. Whe he be Presdent Childrin of Coler was not starving like they our under Trump.

Trump lyed and Childrin of Coler Died !!!!!!

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, Vt at May 01, 2025 08:34 PM (FDlb9)

71 The door is a particle and a wave.
Posted by: Weasel at May 01, 2025 08:34 PM (Axc90)

I did not know Thomas Kincade got arrested for peeing on a bush at Disneyland/world.

Posted by: Aetius451AD work phone at May 01, 2025 08:35 PM (W/MBp)

72 "The door is a particle and a wave.
Posted by: Weasel"

Have you discovered shrooms in your retirement?

Posted by: That's far out, man at May 01, 2025 08:35 PM (vFG9F)

73 I would switch doors also, to avoid Leah Hextall, if Kathryn Tappen and Emily Kaplan were behind the other curtains.

Posted by: anchorbabe fashion cop at May 01, 2025 08:36 PM (ufFY8)

74 I love how the dishwasher wasn't just a Kenmore, but a LADY Kenmore.

Posted by: Quarter Twenty at May 01, 2025 08:36 PM (dg+HA)

75 Conversely, Monte could give you a freebie and show you a goat before you pick which door... Then you are at 50/50 from the first and only guess.
Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 08:30 PM (/lPRQ)

unless you pick the revealed goat door.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:36 PM (8avO+)

76 I had an Amazon package that kept going to KS, then to AZ, then back to KS. I finally asked for a refund. Then it showed up! The seller had put two different shipping labels on it, one to someone in AZ and one to me. That's why it kept bouncing back and forth for two months. Amazon did charge me for it again, when I finally got it.

It's normal for things to sit for a couple of days in Lenexa or Wichita. Would be nice if the post office would just acknowledge that.

Posted by: Notsothoreau at May 01, 2025 08:37 PM (cvWHI)

77 Ozzy got busted for passing on the Alamo. That was not nice.

Posted by: ScaryMary at May 01, 2025 08:37 PM (uksS7)

78 A simple case of Schrödinger's Door.

Posted by: Weasel at May 01, 2025 08:38 PM (Axc90)

79 Greatest or GOATS in sports

Hockey- Gretzky
Boxing- Ali
Basketball- Jordan
Baseball- Ruth
Golf- Woods
Football- Payton

Posted by: coyne at May 01, 2025 08:39 PM (b8Y5B)

80 The fact that Monty didn't open the remaining unpicked door increases the likelihood that the car is behind that door.

Posted by: Hockey Stick Insertion Service, LLC at May 01, 2025 08:39 PM (qUkBO)

81 his is incorrect. Play the game yourself with 3 playing cards and a second person to be Monty and you'll find that you win twice as often if you switch.
Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:24 PM (/y8xj)

I’m willing to take your word for it, though damn if I understand lol
Posted by: Trump at May 01, 2025 08:31 PM (fQ

No way Its 50/50 whether you switch or not Switching cant possibly improve your odds

Posted by: LASue at May 01, 2025 08:39 PM (lCppi)

82 The goat was always happy to see me. The car? Not so much.

Posted by: Achmed at May 01, 2025 08:39 PM (mH6SG)

83 Back then a goat might have been a good win, if it said Pontiac on it.

Posted by: fd at May 01, 2025 08:39 PM (vFG9F)

84 74 I love how the dishwasher wasn't just a Kenmore, but a LADY Kenmore.
Posted by: Quarter Twenty at May 01, 2025 08:36 PM (dg+HA)

My mother had a lovely Lady Kenmore hair dryer, complete with the hood.

Posted by: tcn in AK at May 01, 2025 08:40 PM (a4NoL)

85 The fact that Monty didn't open the remaining unpicked door increases the likelihood that the car is behind that door.
Posted by: Hockey Stick Insertion Service, LLC at May 01, 2025 08:39 PM (qUkBO)

How so?

Posted by: LASue at May 01, 2025 08:40 PM (lCppi)

86 Rigged.You could not see them switching prizes behind the closed doors.

Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 08:40 PM (i0F8b)

87 Here's another way to think about it that might help. We are all agreed that on the initial pick, you are going to pick a goat 2/3 of the time. That means that 2/3 of the time, Monty has no choice which door to open since only one of "his" doors has a goat. Therefore 2/3 of the time, the door that Monty doesn't open is the winner.
Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:28 PM (/y8xj)

no, there is only one goat and one monty.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:41 PM (8avO+)

88 his is incorrect. Play the game yourself with 3 playing cards and a second person to be Monty and you'll find that you win twice as often if you switch.
Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:24 PM (/y8xj)

I’m willing to take your word for it, though damn if I understand lol
Posted by: Trump at May 01, 2025 08:31 PM (fQ

No way Its 50/50 whether you switch or not Switching cant possibly improve your odds
Posted by: LASue at May 01, 2025 08:39 PM (lCppi)

Think of the case of 100 doors. You pick one, have 1 percent chance. Monty opens 98 doors leaving 2 left. You'd switch then, right?

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:42 PM (8avO+)

89 Does it work the same for other livestock? Cows, for example?

Posted by: Weasel at May 01, 2025 08:42 PM (Axc90)

90

You won't know if the goat is alive or dead until you open the door...

Posted by: The Cat at May 01, 2025 08:43 PM (joRsu)

91 Rigged.You could not see them switching prizes behind the closed doors.
Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 08:40 PM (i0F8b)

Monty is evil and only gives you the offer if you picked the right door.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:44 PM (8avO+)

92 I... See... Four... Doors... On A Car.

Posted by: Borg Picard at May 01, 2025 08:44 PM (i0F8b)

93 If we shot Monty in the head, would our odds change?

Hypothetically.

Posted by: Aetius451AD work phone at May 01, 2025 08:44 PM (W/MBp)

94 89 Does it work the same for other livestock? Cows, for example?
Posted by: Weasel at May 01, 2025 08:42 PM (Axc90

That's udderly ridiculous.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:44 PM (q7hip)

95 It's normal for things to sit for a couple of days in Lenexa or Wichita. Would be nice if the post office would just acknowledge that.
Posted by: Notsothoreau at May 01, 2025 08:37 PM (cvWHI)

Shipping up here is sometimes a trial. Some companies just state up front that they don't ship to Alaska. Others don't say so, but just try to order from them, and it will be rejected. Then there are those that won't send anything to a Post Office Box in Alaska, but will to one in the Lower 48. WTF? So they ask for my physical address, but the post office doesn't deliver here, so they have to send it UPS or Fedex, and that is more expensive. A flat rate box is the same rate to Alaska as it is anywhere in the Lower 48.... grr...

Ikea won't ship here, neither will the people who make the wood umbrella clothes dryers, etc. If you want that stuff, you have to have it drop shipped to an expediter in Seattle, who then pallets it up with other folks' stuff and sends it on a barge, that takes a week, etc.

You would think we aren't even a state or something.

Posted by: tcn in AK at May 01, 2025 08:44 PM (a4NoL)

96 hi guys. this theory was tested in an episode of 'mythbusters' and it seemed that you really had a better chance of winning if you switched doors after one door was opened. i still can't wrap my head around it but i barely got through algebra.

Posted by: gnats local 678 at May 01, 2025 08:45 PM (CWTWj)

97 I only know Lenexa KS as the home of LMC, where i buy most of my truck parts.

Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 08:45 PM (YdnOv)

98 Rigged.You could not see them switching prizes behind the closed doors.
Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 08:40 PM (i0F8b)

Monty is evil and only gives you the offer if you picked the right door.
Posted by: Oldcat

Funny how nobody noticed that before.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 08:46 PM (/lPRQ)

99 85 The fact that Monty didn't open the remaining unpicked door increases the likelihood that the car is behind that door.
Posted by: Hockey Stick Insertion Service, LLC at May 01, 2025 08:39 PM (qUkBO)

How so?
____

There were two unpicked doors. Either both unpicked doors have goats, in which case Monty can pick either, or only one unpicked door has a goat, in which case Monty has only one option. The increased probability of picking right by switching doors reflects that latter possibility.

Posted by: Hockey Stick Insertion Service, LLC at May 01, 2025 08:46 PM (qUkBO)

100 That's udderly ridiculous.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:44 PM (q7hip)

And so it begins.

Posted by: tcn in AK at May 01, 2025 08:46 PM (a4NoL)

101 Sigh.

Posted by: Door number three goat at May 01, 2025 08:46 PM (mH6SG)

102 Of course the Dot-Indians aren't trying to genocide you like the mohammedans are.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at May 01, 2025 08:30 PM

They're just disrupting your workplace by telling the white people deserve fewer benefits AND being horrified that the best-looking white guy of our group is dating a sweet black lady.

One of my bff's husband worked in IT. A new-hire Indian was sent for HR training for having difficulties working with a guy "belonged" to a low caste. "Difficulties" in this case meant refusing to work with the guy and demanding their co-workers explain how he was allowed to immigrate to the US.

Posted by: NaughtyPine at May 01, 2025 08:47 PM (fxCK2)

103

What if you open the door and the goat is in the car, taking a dump in the back seat?

Posted by: Elderly Git at May 01, 2025 08:47 PM (joRsu)

104 The best part of that show was at the end, when he asked for ridiculous items that people might have on them. The things that people packed on to that show were epic.

Posted by: tcn in AK at May 01, 2025 08:47 PM (a4NoL)

105 I don't have any videos of goats but here's one of a mule.

https://tinyurl.com/43eufh2k

Watch how fast leftists forget all about Maryland Man.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 08:47 PM (viF8m)

106 "That's udderly ridiculous.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:44 PM (q7hip)

And so it begins.
Posted by: tcn in AK"

It would behoove us to stop now.

Posted by: fd at May 01, 2025 08:47 PM (vFG9F)

107 "The hell do i want with some crappy car i got to pay taxes and tags and insurance on? Just gimme the two goats and we'll call it a deal."

Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 08:48 PM (YdnOv)

108 Car, goat, Bah! Gimme a date with Carol Merrill!

Posted by: Prize Models Rule! at May 01, 2025 08:49 PM (G5+As)

109 That's too bad. I got a great wooden clothes dryer from an Amish place on Amazon.

I know, when we first started doing voice over internet phone service, there was no charge on calls to the lower 48 but they did charge to Alaska. Had to explain it to customers but it made no sense to me.

Posted by: Notsothoreau at May 01, 2025 08:49 PM (cvWHI)

110 I would be tempted to keep the goat, honestly. I could find a buyer right away.

Posted by: NaughtyPine at May 01, 2025 08:49 PM (fxCK2)

111 Odds mean nothing if you're doing a single trial.

Go with your gut.

Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 08:49 PM (YdnOv)

112 Here's how I got it through to me. Imagine there are 100 doors, not 3. And you guess one door. Then they open 98 empty doors, and ask if you want to stick to your original one, or switch. It's the same principle. Only it seems so much more obvious that your chances of picking the right door out of 100 is remote.
Posted by: Mad Max in VA at M

The odds of each scenario are statistically independent Like flipping a coin You can flip a coin and have it land heads 39 times On the 40th flip, the odds are still 50/50 it will be heads. Whats happened before has no bearing on your future odds

Posted by: LASue at May 01, 2025 08:50 PM (lCppi)

113 Twoday the City councel of Bralleboro voted to make "FART Tube jones" the new city maskot. Check out the Brattleboro city welbsite to see a picture of FART Tube Jones.

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, Vt at May 01, 2025 08:50 PM (FDlb9)

114 hi guys. this theory was tested in an episode of 'mythbusters' and it seemed that you really had a better chance of winning if you switched doors after one door was opened. i still can't wrap my head around it but i barely got through algebra.
Posted by: gnats local 678 at May 01, 2025 08:45 PM (CWTWj)

There are only 2 classes of doors. The one you pick, and the others. You have a one third, the other doors 2/3 chance of the prize. Monty essentially allows you to swap your one third for the two thirds

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:50 PM (8avO+)

115 "The hell do i want with some crappy car i got to pay taxes and tags and insurance on? Just gimme the two goats and we'll call it a deal."
Posted by: Warai-otoko"

Will you trade your 1972 Vega for what I have in this sock?

Posted by: Mystery Sock at May 01, 2025 08:50 PM (vFG9F)

116 40 Daily Mail: Democrat's 'grotesque' blanket statement about Latinos sends internet ablaze

https://tinyurl.com/23t993zv

Hank Johnson is the gift that keeps giving.

Via Instapundit.
Posted by: Robert

SAVE US HANK JOHNSON!! YOU'RE OUR ONLY HOPE!!!

Posted by: Guam at May 01, 2025 08:50 PM (ohOaC)

117 I would be tempted to keep the goat, honestly. I could find a buyer right away.

I never thought about it but now I wonder if they let people do that if they wanted to or just said, "Here's a c-note, thanks for being a good sport."

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:51 PM (/y8xj)

118 Will you trade your 1972 Vega for what I have in this sock?
Posted by: Mystery Sock at May 01, 2025 08:50 PM (vFG9F)

I'd trade a '72 Vega for the damn sock itself.

Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 08:52 PM (YdnOv)

119 I'm almost afraid to ask BUT is ACE ok? I know he/she was 'Pining for the Fiords' so I'm hoping a vacation is the reason for the absence .
Anyone?

Posted by: I was Gumby Damn It! at May 01, 2025 08:52 PM (ey6uh)

120 The odds of each scenario are statistically independent Like flipping a coin You can flip a coin and have it land heads 39 times On the 40th flip, the odds are still 50/50 it will be heads. Whats happened before has no bearing on your future odds
Posted by: LASue at May 01, 2025 08:50 PM (lCppi)

Monty opening doors is not a probabilistic event. He has perfect knowledge and will never open a goat, or a prize.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:52 PM (8avO+)

121 Reform performance.

Britain Elects @BritainElects

Posted by: 13times at May 01, 2025 08:52 PM (4Kfy7)

122 Whats happened before has no bearing on your future odds
___

It does here because they have not "reshuffled" the remaining goat after the initial goat reveal. A new fact that affects the odds. Thus it is not like a coin flip.

Posted by: Hockey Stick Insertion Service, LLC at May 01, 2025 08:52 PM (qUkBO)

123 I'm almost afraid to ask BUT is ACE ok? I know he/she was 'Pining for the Fiords' so I'm hoping a vacation is the reason for the absence .
Anyone?
Posted by: I was Gumby Damn It! at May 01, 2025 08:52 PM (ey6uh)

He was urged to the point of forcing to take a vacation.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:52 PM (8avO+)

124 Lil Pooky started army-crawling in earnest today. He also dumped a water bowl onto himself and qas not happy with the results. He did manage to scare off the cat with his newfound mobility, though.

Posted by: pookysgirl, starting to hover more at May 01, 2025 08:53 PM (c4WVb)

125

I don't go to Home Depot, so I don't care if it's full of Mexican goats!

Posted by: H. Johnson at May 01, 2025 08:53 PM (joRsu)

126 Monty was a good guy. Gave millions to charity and also hosted all kinds of benefits for lots of worthy causes. Also used Carol Merrill and Jay Stewart's full name to give them credit/publicity. A very good Canuck who lived a good, long life.

Posted by: Split Second at May 01, 2025 08:53 PM (G5+As)

127
Ace needed a vacation. I have no idea how he can read the shitty news all day long day after day. JJ also.

I'd be depressed.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 08:53 PM (3ek7K)

128 "The hell do i want with some crappy car i got to pay taxes and tags and insurance on? Just gimme the two goats and we'll call it a deal."
Posted by: Warai-otoko"

Will you trade your 1972 Vega for what I have in this sock?
Posted by: Mystery Sock at May 01, 2025 08:50 PM (vFG9F)

Just about nobody took a car. They got a cash equivalent that could have taxes taken out of it.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:54 PM (8avO+)

129 You guys are thinking about it too hard. The show was obviously rigged because otherwise it would be boring.

Posted by: fd at May 01, 2025 08:54 PM (vFG9F)

130 Lets Make a Deal was a CIA OP.

Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 08:55 PM (i0F8b)

131 Monty was a good guy. Gave millions to charity and also hosted all kinds of benefits for lots of worthy causes.

Bah. We didn't even get a retirement dinner.

Posted by: The Goats at May 01, 2025 08:55 PM (mH6SG)

132 The car was just there for advertisement, really.

Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 08:56 PM (YdnOv)

133 Take the cash always. You have to pay tax on the actual prize no matter what.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at May 01, 2025 08:56 PM (mlg/3)

134 Lil Pooky started army-crawling in earnest today. He also dumped a water bowl onto himself and qas not happy with the results. He did manage to scare off the cat with his newfound mobility, though.
Posted by: pookysgirl, starting to hover more at May 01, 2025 08:53 PM (c4WVb)

Most cats I know see mobile babies and toddlers as a completely new form of life. Only later when they are more reliable to they become people again.

My cats were more scared of wee tykes thru the patio door than the time a huge hawk caught and ate a rabbit on the lawn.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:57 PM (8avO+)

135 127
Ace needed a vacation. I have no idea how he can read the shitty news all day long day after day. JJ also.

I'd be depressed.
Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 08:53 PM (3ek7K)

I barely survived the Biden term. Just bad news after bad news. Ace can't stop posting so he's forced to look.

He's like the dude from Clockwork Orange with his eyes forced open.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:57 PM (q7hip)

136 The odds of each scenario are statistically independent Like flipping a coin

Seriously, just prove it yourself by enlisting a Monty and using playing cards or coins under Solo cups as "doors." Once you see the results for yourself, you'll be able to work out the logic.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:57 PM (/y8xj)

137 The Monty Hall Problem

Were the doors made in China back then?

Posted by: Gref at May 01, 2025 08:57 PM (aBgBM)

138

Speed Queen machines used to be the best you could buy.

We bought one for our son and his wife and after three years it crapped out. They called for service, it was still under warranty. They were told if they used bleach and something else, I can't remember what, it voids the warranty.

Needless to say, they had to buy another machine. Not Speed Queen though. I'm sure the one they bought will crap out just like the other one.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 08:58 PM (3ek7K)

139 Speaking of Tom Brady, has Belichek gone off the deep end with the gold digger or is he just trolling everyone?

Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 08:58 PM (i0F8b)

140 Back then you could go on Let's Make a Deal dressed like a fairy and no one would think you were actually gay just a little weird.

Posted by: fd at May 01, 2025 08:58 PM (vFG9F)

141 That's udderly ridiculous.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 08:44 PM (q7hip)

And so it begins.
Posted by: tcn in AK"

It would behoove us to stop now.
Posted by: fd

We pun be-cud we love it.

Posted by: Tuna at May 01, 2025 08:58 PM (lJ0H4)

142 "The hell do i want with some crappy car i got to pay taxes and tags and insurance on? Just gimme the two goats and we'll call it a deal."
Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 08:48 PM (YdnOv)

Monty or the show probably did not own the goat.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:59 PM (8avO+)

143 Think of the case of 100 doors. You pick one, have 1 percent chance. Monty opens 98 doors leaving 2 left. You'd switch then, right?
Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:42 PM (8avO+)

Of the two doors left, one has the car and one has the goat, A person coming off the street has a 50/50 chance if asked to pick a door for the car. Correct?

Posted by: Sebastian Melmoth at May 01, 2025 08:59 PM (VofaG)

144 There's a documentary on Netflix I believe about the dude who cheated his ass off on Press Your Luck.

Or did he??

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:00 PM (q7hip)

145 The odds of each scenario are statistically independent Like flipping a coin

Seriously, just prove it yourself by enlisting a Monty and using playing cards or coins under Solo cups as "doors." Once you see the results for yourself, you'll be able to work out the logic.
Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:57 PM (/y8xj)

Nobody ever just does that lol. Not at the start when probability professors got the wrong answer and not now. Even I never got out the cards.

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 09:01 PM (8avO+)

146 Bah. We didn't even get a retirement dinner.
Posted by: The Goats at May 01, 2025 08:55 PM (mH6SG)
----
You *became* the retirement dinner...

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at May 01, 2025 09:01 PM (GlyvH)

147 What does Goat taste like?

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:02 PM (q7hip)

148 I believe I read that those who got zonked got $100 as consolation. They didn't make you take home the camel or the 30 year-old swayback horse.

Posted by: Pick Me! Pick Me! at May 01, 2025 09:02 PM (G5+As)

149 Stormy Buonatony

https://images.app.goo.gl/xJ5LSwkepsPSCRW5A

Meow.

Posted by: anchorbabe fashion cop at May 01, 2025 09:03 PM (ufFY8)

150 Of the two doors left, one has the car and one has the goat, A person coming off the street has a 50/50 chance if asked to pick a door for the car. Correct?

Correct and that is the nub of the problem. The player didn't just come off the street and choose from 2 doors, he chose from 3 (or 100 or whatever) doors.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 09:03 PM (/y8xj)

151 AlaBAMA, cablrito is wonderful.

Posted by: Ben Had at May 01, 2025 09:03 PM (D7yNd)

152

Don't ever suck-start a car if it's been running recently... lip blisters are no joke!

Posted by: D. Hogger at May 01, 2025 09:03 PM (joRsu)

153 The losers got the consolation prize of the board version of Lets Make a Deal.

Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 09:04 PM (i0F8b)

154 cheated his ass off on Press Your Luck.

Or did he??

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:00 PM (q7hip)

He figured out the pattern.
That is not cheating.

Posted by: Deplorable Ian Galt at May 01, 2025 09:05 PM (ufFY8)

155 "The losers got the consolation prize of the board version of Lets Make a Deal.
Posted by: davidt"

And soup.

Posted by: fd at May 01, 2025 09:05 PM (vFG9F)

156 Think of the case of 100 doors. You pick one, have 1 percent chance. Monty opens 98 doors leaving 2 left. You'd switch then, right?
Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 08:42 PM (8avO+)

Of the two doors left, one has the car and one has the goat, A person coming off the street has a 50/50 chance if asked to pick a door for the car. Correct?
Posted by: Sebastian Melmoth at May 01, 2025 08:59 PM (VofaG)

That's not the game. You know that your door has 1 percent chance of winning. the other doors had the remaining chance. by switching you improve your odds tremendously.

But yes a guy with no knowledge would have 50/50

Posted by: Oldcat at May 01, 2025 09:05 PM (8avO+)

157
Goat is a great meat to eat.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:05 PM (3ek7K)

158 151 AlaBAMA, cablrito is wonderful.

Posted by: Ben Had at May 01, 2025 09:03 PM (D7yNd

Really? I'd think it would be a tougher meat.

Curious to try it some day.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:05 PM (q7hip)

159 I bought a Speed Queen washer not that long ago. (The "quiet" one, not the "classic" one.)

Control board fried after just less than 1 year.

No charge for service call or part but for $1200, that wasn't the point, was it?!

Posted by: JQ at May 01, 2025 09:06 PM (rdVOm)

160 154 cheated his ass off on Press Your Luck.

Or did he??

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:00 PM (q7hip)

He figured out the pattern.
That is not cheating.
Posted by: Deplorable Ian Galt at May 01, 2025 09:05 PM (ufFY8

I thought the same! Smart guy. He didn't do anything wrong. It's like counting cards.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:06 PM (q7hip)

161 >>I'd be depressed.

I read as much of it as they do and I'm just the opposite. This is the most optimistic time in my adult life. We've never been this close to breaking them and Trump is just warming up.

ace is fine. He's off doing pon farr or moulting or whatever his kind do.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 09:07 PM (viF8m)

162 AlaBAMA, cabrito is 90 day old goat very akin to veal.

Posted by: Ben Had at May 01, 2025 09:07 PM (D7yNd)

163
When we lived in Florida and Hubbie and the other men would take the scouts camping for the weekend they would stop on the drive down at a guy's ranch and he would butcher a goat for them to take with.

They always loved roasting and eating it.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:07 PM (3ek7K)

164 "Control board fried after just less than 1 year."

A hidden cost of parts made in China?

Posted by: fd at May 01, 2025 09:08 PM (vFG9F)

165 Control board fried after just less than 1 year.

No charge for service call or part but for $1200, that wasn't the point, was it?!
Posted by: JQ

What's a control board?

Posted by: 1998 Kenmore W/Dial at May 01, 2025 09:08 PM (G5+As)

166 0 Of the two doors left, one has the car and one has the goat, A person coming off the street has a 50/50 chance if asked to pick a door for the car. Correct?

Correct and that is the nub of the problem. The player didn't just come off the street and choose from 2 doors, he chose from 3 (or 100 or whatever) doors.
Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 09:03 PM (/y8xj)

So why would two people have different odds making the same bet?

It’s like the casinos show the run of numbers on the roulette wheel so it will entice people to make larger bets when it’s shows red coming up 9 times in a row. Surely the next roll the odds would say black would be a great bet . The law of large numbers would say nay.

Posted by: Sebastian Melmoth at May 01, 2025 09:08 PM (VofaG)

167
ace is fine. He's off doing pon farr or moulting or whatever his kind do.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 09:07 PM (viF8m

He's laying on the couch in a dirty tshirt with Cheeto stains on it watching reruns of Love Boat and Fantasy Island.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:09 PM (q7hip)

168
JQ,

Yeah, the service man said the washers now are made with most of the innards in one piece and you can't replace parts like you used to be able to do.

He told them it would be cheaper for them to buy a new machine.

Ya know what!!! Appliance manufacturers are screwing people!!

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:09 PM (3ek7K)

169 Planned Obsolescence was created by the lightbulb industry.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:10 PM (q7hip)

170 Good evening! I didn’t realize the cafe was on a reduced schedule and we get Bonus Buck!

Posted by: Piper at May 01, 2025 09:10 PM (pZEOD)

171 Honestly, don't take my word for it. As Muldoon used to say, for all you know, I'm just the night clerk at 7-11. Play the game and see it for yourself.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 08:33 PM (/y8xj)

------------

Oddbob is right!

I just did this -- and you empirically come to realize that THE ONLY TIME YOU LOSE is if you INITIALLY PICK THE DOOR WITH THE CAR (1/3 initial probability) -- meaning you have a 2/3 chance of winning by changing your pick to the other door after the goat is revealed.

Fascinating ...

Posted by: ShainS at May 01, 2025 09:12 PM (acnyG)

172 So why would two people have different odds making the same bet?

Because one of them chose 1 of 2 and one of them chose 1 of 100.

OK, I'm dropping this topic. If you are open to learning, play the game yourself and learn.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 09:12 PM (/y8xj)

173 Cabritos are tasty.

The Middle East goat grab was damn good, too.

Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory, red heifer owner at May 01, 2025 09:13 PM (SYD5S)

174 A company builds an exceptional product that lasts 40 years. They just built themselves out of the market.

Posted by: Ben Had at May 01, 2025 09:14 PM (D7yNd)

175 Had an item I ordered from a company iin GA ship to Anchorage AK, of course I live in MT. Company reshipped the item and I received it on Monday. Lo and behold the lost item showed up today, one month after I ordered it. It’s better traveled than I am.

Posted by: neverenoughcaffeine at May 01, 2025 09:14 PM (2NHgQ)

176
We had goat stew somewhere in the Caribbean a few years ago.

It was so delicious.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:14 PM (3ek7K)

177 Take the cash always. You have to pay tax on the actual prize no matter what.
Posted by: weft cut-loop

They have those Win a Dream Home lotteries.
Everyone who took the house instead of the cash loses the house in a couple of years. Probably more just after a year when the tx bills come after the utilities already ate everything up.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 09:14 PM (/lPRQ)

178 Except the whole explanation is only from a Math viewpoint, not a GAMESHOW and Psychology view.

Do you really think Monty had no idea what was behind each door? That he was not coached?

I would venture $1000 on the premise that good looking chicks, won much more then they statistically should have...

Why? Not cause Monty was getting some, but because of the optics of Winning...

Posted by: Romeo13 at May 01, 2025 09:14 PM (QAkQ3)

179 Ace is the Ghost of Endor and he flying his refurbished X-Wing fighter over the Ukrainian skies right now. Shooting whoever the bad guys are in this stupid hot mess. Prolly all of them.

Posted by: Pug Mahon at May 01, 2025 09:15 PM (0aYVJ)

180 Planned Obsolescence was created by the lightbulb industry.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:10 PM (q7hip)

------------

[Performs quick interwebz search:]

These early instances illustrate how planned obsolescence began to influence manufacturing and consumer behavior in the early 20th century:

. The concept of planned obsolescence can be traced back to the 1920s, but one of the earliest notable examples occurred in 1924 when major lightbulb manufacturers formed the Phoebus Cartel. This cartel aimed to increase profits and sales by reducing the lifespan of incandescent lightbulbs from 1500-2000 hours to 1000 hours;

Additionally, Bernard London's 1932 pamphlet "Ending the Depression Through Planned Obsolescence" suggested government-imposed obsolescence on consumer goods, although this legislative proposal did not come to fruition; and

In the context of product design and marketing, General Motors introduced the concept of annual model-year design changes in the 1920s to encourage car owners to buy new replacements each year, which is often misattributed to Alfred P. Sloan Jr..

Posted by: ShainS at May 01, 2025 09:15 PM (acnyG)

181 But I don't want a goat.

Well, unless its a GTO.

Posted by: Diogenes at May 01, 2025 09:15 PM (W/lyH)

182 Evenin’, All. What’s shakin’?

Posted by: Bulg at May 01, 2025 09:16 PM (77rzZ)

183 97 I only know Lenexa KS as the home of LMC, where i buy most of my truck parts.
Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 08:45 PM (YdnOv)
There is iron in the words of Warai-otoko for all men to see.
-Ten Bears

Posted by: Eromero at May 01, 2025 09:17 PM (LHPAg)

184

We have a fridge in this house we bought last August. I hated it as soon as I saw it. It's one of those high tech pieces of shit that people buy to show off to their friends.

Manufactured in 2021 and it is dead as a doornail. We've been sick here, so we haven't made the hour and half journey to buy a new one.

We have a fridge in the garage and Hubbie said, well, we're getting exercise going out there and back, lol.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:17 PM (3ek7K)

185 What does Goat taste like?
Posted by: AlaBAMA

Never had hobo ass, but I bet it tastes like goat. A well cleaned goat.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 09:18 PM (/lPRQ)

186
182 Evenin’, All. What’s shakin’?
Posted by: Bulg at May 01, 2025 09:16 PM (77rzZ)

Ace won a goat on Press Your Luck and now his fridge ain't working cause the lightbulb cartel are bastards.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:19 PM (q7hip)

187
I'm not much of a meat eater, but I have to say goat and moose are my favorite meats.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:19 PM (3ek7K)

188 Oddbob is right!

Now I know how Navin Johnson felt when he saw his name in the new phone book. My existence is validated.

Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 09:20 PM (/y8xj)

189 Posted by: ShainS at May 01, 2025 09:15 PM (acnyG)

there is a lightbulb that has been constantly running for over 100 years... they say they won't take it apart because they don't want to screw up a historic item...

No, they don't want to take it apart, because it has lasted 100 years.

Posted by: Romeo13 at May 01, 2025 09:20 PM (QAkQ3)

190
Shopping for light bulbs is a royal pain in the ass. Hopefully Trump will correct that.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:21 PM (3ek7K)

191 The odds start at 1 out of 3. Or 2 to 1 against you. Picking correctly.

Monty opens one of the doors you didn't pick and it's one of the zonks. If Monty didn't give you the opportunity to change your guess, the odds do not change.

Because there are only two doors left and one has the zonk and the other is the prize, and because the contestant has a chance to choose again--one out of two doors, the odds are now 50-50. Sue from LA was correct. Because the contestant is given another chance to choose, the events are statistically independent.

Posted by: Eaton Morgina at May 01, 2025 09:21 PM (lCppi)

192 I miss incandescent bulbs but the LED bulbs are cheaper to operate.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:22 PM (q7hip)

193 Hah. I did this a LONG time ago:

https://www.panix.com/~mshaw/3door.txt

(Can't copy/paste here, too long)

Posted by: Mark Shaw at May 01, 2025 09:22 PM (HWNLc)

194 It would be interesting to get a few GOOD poker players to watch Monty Hall.... and see if he had a tell...

Bet he did.

Posted by: Romeo13 at May 01, 2025 09:22 PM (QAkQ3)

195 "there is a lightbulb that has been constantly running for over 100 years..."

The more often a light bulb is turned on and off the quicker it fails?

Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 09:22 PM (i0F8b)

196 Ace is the Ghost of Endor and he flying his refurbished X-Wing fighter over the Ukrainian skies right now. Shooting whoever the bad guys are in this stupid hot mess. Prolly all of them.
Posted by: Pug Mahon at May 01, 2025 09:15 PM (0aYVJ)

***
It's a target rich environment. Ace's motto for aces: If it flies, it dies!

Posted by: Diogenes at May 01, 2025 09:22 PM (W/lyH)

197 Planned Obsolescence was created by the lightbulb industry.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:10 PM (q7hip)

Fuck Big Tungsten.

Wolfram, my ass.

Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 09:22 PM (YdnOv)

198 I never liked Let's Make a Deal because the audience members were always dressed in silly costumes and were too frantic.

Now Beat the Clock there was a real game show.

Posted by: San Franpsycho at May 01, 2025 09:22 PM (RIvkX)

199 He's laying on the couch in a dirty tshirt with Cheeto stains on it watching reruns of Love Boat and Fantasy Island.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:09 PM (q7hip)
----
I was wondering who was making that racket in the living room...

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at May 01, 2025 09:23 PM (GlyvH)

200 188 Oddbob is right!

Now I know how Navin Johnson felt when he saw his name in the new phone book. My existence is validated.
Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 09:20 PM (/y8xj)

Howard Johnson is Right!

Posted by: Ivan Johnson at May 01, 2025 09:24 PM (QAkQ3)

201 187
I'm not much of a meat eater, but I have to say goat and moose are my favorite meats.
Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:19 PM (3ek7K)

Dicks. They're pretty yummy!

Posted by: Pete Buttigieg and His Mom at May 01, 2025 09:24 PM (JXTT6)

202 Jeopardy was the king of gameshows.

Posted by: Bulg at May 01, 2025 09:24 PM (77rzZ)

203 199 He's laying on the couch in a dirty tshirt with Cheeto stains on it watching reruns of Love Boat and Fantasy Island.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:09 PM (q7hip)
----
I was wondering who was making that racket in the living room...
Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at May 01, 2025 09:23 PM (GlyvH)

Hey now... don't Dis Fantasy Island... Mr. Rourke faced down the Debil Hiself!

Posted by: Ivan Johnson at May 01, 2025 09:24 PM (QAkQ3)

204 I enjoyed Price is Right as a kid. Always a good memory of coming home after school.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:25 PM (q7hip)

205 Never had hobo ass,

Me neither.
Honest.

Posted by: Paul Pelosi at May 01, 2025 09:25 PM (gKWVE)

206 202 Jeopardy was the king of gameshows.
Posted by: Bulg at May 01, 2025 09:24 PM (77rzZ)

Get off my lawn Junior...

Posted by: 64,000 dollar question at May 01, 2025 09:26 PM (QAkQ3)

207 LED bulbs are great.

CFLs are the tepid fire in Beelzebub's turdcutter after Taco Tuesday night in Dis.

Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 09:26 PM (YdnOv)

208 200 188 Oddbob is right!

Now I know how Navin Johnson felt when he saw his name in the new phone book. My existence is validated.
Posted by: Oddbob at May 01, 2025 09:20 PM (/y8xj)

Howard Johnson is Right!
Posted by: Ivan Johnson at May 01, 2025 09:24 PM (QAkQ3)

...and the governor is the leading asshoe in the state!

Posted by: Don in SoCo at May 01, 2025 09:26 PM (vd6bO)

209
What was the game show where the weirdo celebrities sat in cubes? It was stupid.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:27 PM (3ek7K)

210 209
What was the game show where the weirdo celebrities sat in cubes? It was stupid.
Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:27 PM (3ek7K

Laugh in?

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:27 PM (q7hip)

211 I was told there would be no math in this thread.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero43) at May 01, 2025 09:27 PM (JkO4W)

212 What was the game show where the weirdo celebrities sat in cubes? It was stupid.
Posted by: four seasons

Hollywood Squares.
Or the other one.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 09:28 PM (/lPRQ)

213
Cicero,

Sometimes people lie here, lol. Don't get sucked in!

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:28 PM (3ek7K)

214 207 LED bulbs are great.

CFLs are the tepid fire in Beelzebub's turdcutter after Taco Tuesday night in Dis.
Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 09:26 PM (YdnOv)
_-_-_
I refuse to attempt to say it better myself.

Posted by: Don in SoCo at May 01, 2025 09:28 PM (vd6bO)

215 Oh. Hollywood Squares

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:28 PM (q7hip)

216 21 A 1976 Speed Queen was built like a tank. I'd take it.
Posted by: Mr Aspirin Factory, red heifer owner at May 01, 2025 08:18 PM (SYD5S)

---------

FUN FACT: If Hannibal had access to Speed Queens the Roman Empire would have been strangled in its infancy.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero43) at May 01, 2025 09:29 PM (JkO4W)

217 Sometimes people lie here, lol. Don't get sucked in!
Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:28 PM (3ek7K)

Oh man, let's have a thread on the Liar's Paradox next. That'll be fun for hours.

Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 09:29 PM (YdnOv)

218
Yes it would!!

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:30 PM (3ek7K)

219 Sometimes people lie here, lol. Don't get sucked in!
Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:28 PM (3ek7K)

---------

I have learned to be incredulous.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero43) at May 01, 2025 09:30 PM (JkO4W)

220 In your face.

Posted by: Eaton Morgina at May 01, 2025 09:30 PM (lCppi)

221 Hey, those are my goats.

Posted by: 'Mo Hammad at May 01, 2025 09:30 PM (X8wmX)

222 I have never lied.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:30 PM (q7hip)

223
Is incredulous better than stupid?

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:30 PM (3ek7K)

224
223
Is incredulous better than stupid?
Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:30 PM (3ek7K

It costs more anyway.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:31 PM (q7hip)

225 222 I have never lied.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:30 PM (q7hip)

---------

*fistbump*

Posted by: Geo. Washington at May 01, 2025 09:31 PM (JkO4W)

226 223
Is incredulous better than stupid?
Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:30 PM (3ek7K)

---------

I do both with similar aplomb.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero43) at May 01, 2025 09:32 PM (JkO4W)

227 I'm lying.

Posted by: Harry Mudd at May 01, 2025 09:32 PM (i0F8b)

228 You can fix incredulity.

You can't fix stupid.

Posted by: Warai-otoko at May 01, 2025 09:32 PM (YdnOv)

229 Jeopardy was the only show that I liked. The others smacked of gambling, which I hate. Gambling makes me anxious.

Posted by: Pug Mahon at May 01, 2025 09:33 PM (0aYVJ)

230 The tiger is behind the door on the right.

Posted by: The Guard Who Always Lies at May 01, 2025 09:33 PM (JkO4W)

231 I thought there was no fancy words in the Cafe?

Save that for the book thread and those pants wearing folk.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:33 PM (q7hip)

232
I love gambling with my husband's money, lol.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:33 PM (3ek7K)

233 Best game show was The $64,000 Question.

Second-best was College Bowl.

Third-best was that debate where the Democrat was given the questions beforehand and Romney wasn't.

Posted by: mindful webworker - a long time ago when the earth was new at May 01, 2025 09:34 PM (IcX7N)

234 Third-best was that debate where the Democrat was given the questions beforehand and Romney wasn't.
Posted by: mindful webworker - a long time ago when the earth was new at May 01, 2025 09:34 PM (IcX7N)

---------

Is that something wrong?

Posted by: Donna Brazile at May 01, 2025 09:36 PM (JkO4W)

235 Suppose that there are 1,000 cups upside down on the table. There's a $15,000 diamond under one cup and 999 beer bottle caps under the other 999 cups. You get to pick one cup at random. The game runner covers 999 of the cups with a washtub. S/he removes one cup from under the washtub and turns it over to reveal a bottle cap. Is the diamond under your cup or under the washtub?
Same problem with different numbers. Now it's obvious.

Posted by: Malcolm Kirkpatick at May 01, 2025 09:36 PM (fgkXD)

236
Shut up Donna! Thank goodness we haven't had to see that witch lately.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:37 PM (3ek7K)

237 The 1900's called. They want their game show back.

Posted by: Don in SoCo at May 01, 2025 09:37 PM (vd6bO)

238 Knowing that Door #1 contains a goat changes the odds, from 33% to 50%.

If somebody deals a card face down to you, the odds of it being a heart are 25%. But if he looks at it and tells you that it's red, the odds change to 50%, just based on the additional information you just learned. Same thing that knowing that door #1 contained a goat.

Posted by: MrJimm at May 01, 2025 09:37 PM (/QiHS)

239 Sometimes people lie here, lol. Don't get sucked in!
Posted by: four seasons

You're making that up!

Posted by: mindful webworker - slip-slidin' away at May 01, 2025 09:37 PM (IcX7N)

240
Colorado Avalanche
tonight is win or go home

Posted by: Savage Henry at May 01, 2025 09:37 PM (AOsQT)

241
I'm lying!

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:37 PM (3ek7K)

242 I thought there was no fancy words in the Cafe?

Save that for the book thread and those pants wearing folk.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:33 PM (q7hip)
---
Fancy pants are always cromulent on the Sunday Morning Book Thread.

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at May 01, 2025 09:38 PM (GlyvH)

243 Third-best was that debate where the Democrat was given the questions beforehand and Romney wasn't.
Posted by: mindful webworker - a long time ago when the earth was new at May 01, 2025 09:34 PM (IcX7N)

Lol

Posted by: LASue at May 01, 2025 09:39 PM (lCppi)

244 I understand Throckmorton's attempt to clarify the confusion about Monty's deal since the internet is so adamant about the genius' conclusion. But he's mistaken. The odds are determined at the moment of choice, measuring the unknowns.
At the first deal the odds of choosing the correct door is 33% (1 in three)
After a non-random goat door is exposed, (a choice beyond the influence of the contestant) the contestant is given a second opportunity to choose. The new odds are 50:50. The contestant can no longer choose the exposed goat door and is only given a choice between the two unknowns.

The lesson learned past flips of the coin do not affect future results.

Posted by: Setsoru at May 01, 2025 09:39 PM (EQ18D)

245 I think Monty was a Canuck

Posted by: Savage Henry at May 01, 2025 09:39 PM (AOsQT)

246

Best game show ever was Young Ones University Challenge. There's a remastered version on youtube. Make sure you watch the four minute thirty six second version...

Posted by: My Pimp Shot My Dealer at May 01, 2025 09:39 PM (joRsu)

247 My whole world lies waiting behind Door #3.

Posted by: Jimmy Buffett at May 01, 2025 09:40 PM (r5tfK)

248 If somebody deals a card face down to you, the odds of it being a heart are 25%. But if he looks at it and tells you that it's red, the odds change to 50%, just based on the additional information you just learned. Same thing that knowing that door #1 contained a goat.
Posted by: MrJimm at May 01, 2025 09:37 PM (/QiHS)
----
This is an excellent point. Gaining information in a card game where part of the information is usually hidden from you can result in significant advantage.

Magic: The Gathering uses this all the time.

Posted by: "Perfessor" Squirrel at May 01, 2025 09:40 PM (GlyvH)

249 I liked the dating game myself.

All the innuendo was fun. Even as a kid I knew what they were talking about.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:41 PM (q7hip)

250 209
What was the game show where the weirdo celebrities sat in cubes? It was stupid.
Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:27 PM (3ek7K

Name that douchebag with your Host Charles Nelson Reiley

Posted by: I was Gumby Damn It! at May 01, 2025 09:41 PM (ey6uh)

251 247 My whole world lies waiting behind Door #3.
Posted by: Jimmy Buffett at May 01, 2025 09:40 PM (r5tfK)

----------

Door #3 means you get ass-raped by otters.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero43) at May 01, 2025 09:42 PM (JkO4W)

252
Innuendo is a lost art these days.

Everything today is in your face disgusting. I do look at the Daily Mail site every day, but, boy howdy, wtf is it with the disgusting things you see on there? I see pictures and am like, ewwwwwwwwww, no way I'm reading that article.

Social Media has erased couth and whatever other words apply.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:44 PM (3ek7K)

253 Eeeeh! Wrong answer.
Your initial odds a a clear 1 in 3.
Monty will always eliminate one of the goats.
Goating you into changing your decision which is now 1 in 2.
Your decision was always 1 in 2. Changing that decision does not increase your odds.
This has nothing to do with Schrodenger's cat who likes living in the box with your indecision until it's dead.

Posted by: john at May 01, 2025 09:44 PM (nEWxZ)

254 I remember a game show from 1962
Name that smell.
It only ran one episode when special guest Charles Laughton
did his Hunchback schtick.

Posted by: I was Gumby Damn It! at May 01, 2025 09:45 PM (ey6uh)

255 You are a condemned prisoner.
Your crime, hanky panky with the Princess.
The King's sentence is you choose:
Two doors, behind one a beautiful lady you will immediately be married to.
Behind the other, a hungry tiger.
You look at the princess, she subtly nods toward the door on the right.
Which door do you open?
Posted by: vmom deport deport deport

I think the answer depends on how much fun the Princess had.

https://xkcd.com/246/

Posted by: mikeski at May 01, 2025 09:45 PM (DgGvY)

256 See! See! Cleopatra was black! She's right there on Let's Make a Deal. H8rs.

Posted by: haffhowershower at May 01, 2025 09:45 PM (144I4)

257 253
Sure hope you poke airholes in the box! Bet you've never heard that one before!

Posted by: Don in SoCo at May 01, 2025 09:45 PM (vd6bO)

258 Did any of you actually watch Let's Make A Deal?

It's not a simple math problem with choices that never changed. They did. That's why the odds changed.

Don't ever play 3 card monty if you've never been to New York City.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 09:46 PM (viF8m)

259
Our oldest grandson is 11. He's not allowed to have a cellphone and access to the crap on the internet. I salute my son and daughter-in-law for enforcing that rule. He's not happy of course, because all his friends have had access for years.

Kids do not need to see the shit.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 09:47 PM (3ek7K)

260 I'm lying!
Posted by: four seasons

Norman: You say you are lying but if everything you say is a lie … please explain… *FFZZZT*

https://youtu.be/wlMegqgGORY

Posted by: mindful webworker - illogical! illogical! at May 01, 2025 09:47 PM (IcX7N)

261 Shecky Green hosted his own show 'The Price is Wrong'
The show failed due to only having Jews as guests .
They knew all the right prices!

Posted by: I was Gumby Damn It! at May 01, 2025 09:47 PM (ey6uh)

262 So... is this related to the Conclave? A goat, a new car, or a pope?
Posted by: NaughtyPine at May 01, 2025 08:11 PM (fxCK2)

The parable of the sheep and the goats comes to mind.

Posted by: Spoiler: Francis wasn't a sheep at May 01, 2025 09:47 PM (TbWk/)

263 Throckmorton: Major penalties for posing math and statistics questions —with a night enhancement : go directly to the box. See you in the am.

Posted by: Voter theater. at May 01, 2025 09:48 PM (FCPbW)

264 I liked the dating game myself.

All the innuendo was fun. Even as a kid I knew what they were talking about.
Posted by: AlaBAMA

Q: Where is the strangest place you made whoopie?

A: In the butt, Bob.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 09:49 PM (/lPRQ)

265 Every comment is a lie including this one.

Posted by: San Franpsycho at May 01, 2025 09:49 PM (RIvkX)

266 When the Earth shakes, point your trunks inward.

Posted by: Kamala Harris at May 01, 2025 09:50 PM (JkO4W)

267 I still don’t believe the odds change.

Posted by: Its Go Time Donald at May 01, 2025 09:50 PM (NWr1F)

268 Q: Where is the strangest place you made whoopie?

A: In the butt, Bob.
Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 09:49 PM (/lPRQ

Blondes have more fun.

Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 01, 2025 09:50 PM (q7hip)

269 The Gambler's Fallacy.

Posted by: davidt at May 01, 2025 09:50 PM (i0F8b)

270 Monty is giving you information. Before even thinking about it, that's all you really need to know. It doesn't force understanding but it aids it.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 09:51 PM (E0p3T)

271 From the previous thread:

8 Be happy. It makes the misery that much more intense and delicious when I visit disaster upon you.
Posted by: God at May 01, 2025 08:16 PM (aE3vh

And no, I did not write it/obviously. I am so sorry this person is having such a miserable time and I hope that there is some easing of the pain, ( They obviously need prayer ) but God is not a sadist .We used to have a poster here who would make those kinds of statements . Maybe it's the same poster under a new handle I suggest he take it to "Got Questions" which is a Christian question and answer site and post it in question form , although they may not answer if it they consider it trolling. An alternative is finding a clergypetson in his area
and asking to see them and talking things out .

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at May 01, 2025 09:51 PM (YqHdp)

272 Man, this thread was probably made for me. Oh well.

Posted by: Disinterested FDA Director at May 01, 2025 09:53 PM (l3YAf)

273 9 Does it work the same for other livestock? Cows, for example?
Posted by: Weasel at May 01, 2025 08:42 PM (Axc90)

We were in the same stat class. In the back. WAY in the back.

Posted by: Voter theater. at May 01, 2025 09:53 PM (FCPbW)

274 It was always a 50/50 between the door you picked and the door they didn't open.

Posted by: nato at May 01, 2025 09:54 PM (vSrCW)

275 You have 2 doors. Behind one of them is a car behind one is a goat. It’s 50/50.

Posted by: Its Go Time Donald at May 01, 2025 09:55 PM (NWr1F)

276 Geeze, 250 comments, and no one mentions the Opal Manta?

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at May 01, 2025 09:55 PM (XeU6L)

277 When one door opens another one always closes, no, wait...

Posted by: Don in SoCo at May 01, 2025 09:55 PM (vd6bO)

278 I still don’t believe the odds change.

Posted by: Its Go Time Donald at May 01, 2025 09:50 PM (NWr1F)

All you have to do is look at this:

It's in 1:

OXX

You choose 1 - Monty tells you 3 is the wrong door. You switch. You lose. (or you stick and you win)

You choose 2 - Monty tells you 3 is the wrong door. You switch. You win. (or you stick and you lose)

You choose 3 - Monty tells you 2 is the wrong door. You switch. You win. (or you stick and you lose)

That's every possibility in a nutshell. 2 out of 3 times you win by switching. There are no other possibilities unless you want to play with what door it is behind which doesn't change anything but the labels.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 09:55 PM (E0p3T)

279 Maybe it's the same poster under a new handle I suggest he take it to "Got Questions" which is a Christian question and answer site and post it in question form , although they may not answer if it they consider it trolling. An alternative is finding a clergypetson in his area
and asking to see them and talking things out .
Posted by: FenelonSpoke at May 01, 2025 09:51 PM (YqHdp)

Yes. A very kind suggestion I hope they heed it

Posted by: LASue at May 01, 2025 09:55 PM (lCppi)

280 After thinking about the problem I had an epiphany and changed my mind.

It is always better to switch and I provide a better example. What if Monty had 100 doors and the contestant picked one. (99 goats and 1 car). After the initial decision Monty will expose 98 goats and never expose a car. There is no randomness involved. In that case the contestant should always switch to an unopened door his odds improve from 1 in 100 to 99 in 100. The contestant is taking Monty's 98 goat doors plus chance for car as his option, after Monty exposed all the goats.

Posted by: Setsoru at May 01, 2025 09:56 PM (EQ18D)

281 Yes, the Monty Hall Problem is right. Always change doors.

Posted by: Disinterested FDA Director at May 01, 2025 09:57 PM (l3YAf)

282 The Steve Goodman cover

https://youtu.be/8vLq9CYizsY

Posted by: mindful webworker - illogical! illogical! at May 01, 2025 09:57 PM (IcX7N)

283 253 Eeeeh! Wrong answer.
Your initial odds a a clear 1 in 3.
Monty will always eliminate one of the goats.
Goating you into changing your decision which is now 1 in 2.
Your decision was always 1 in 2. Changing that decision does not increase your odds.
This has nothing to do with Schrodenger's cat who likes living in the box with your indecision until it's dead.
Posted by: john at May 01, 2025 09:44 PM (nEWxZ)

Sorry... no.. this was TV... they wanted a certain amount of winners, and a certain amount of losers...

And what those winners looked like, probably mattered.

It's like the stupid 'Voice' contestants... who are ALL suddenly from dysfunctional backgrounds.

Posted by: Romeo13 at May 01, 2025 09:57 PM (QAkQ3)

284
Q: Where is the strangest place you made whoopie?

A: In the butt, Bob.
Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 09:49 PM (/lPRQ)

That was the Newlywed Game

Posted by: LASue at May 01, 2025 09:58 PM (lCppi)

285 Cosgrove Vega was kinda hot.

Posted by: Eromero at May 01, 2025 09:58 PM (hGxWW)

286 >> There is no randomness involved. In that case the contestant should always switch to an unopened door his odds improve from 1 in 100 to 99 in 100.

No, they improve to.. uh, wait..

Posted by: Disinterested FDA Director at May 01, 2025 09:59 PM (l3YAf)

287 276 Geeze, 250 comments, and no one mentions the Opal Manta?
Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc. at May 01, 2025 09:55 PM (XeU6L)

--------

The great thing about the Opel Manta is that it had a left-foot pedal that operated the windshield wipers.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero43) at May 01, 2025 09:59 PM (dDmld)

288 This is in the movie "21".

https://bit.ly/4iEqrqh

Posted by: Clyde Shelton at May 01, 2025 09:59 PM (P5BPp)

289
The Pacer was a POS. We had those in the car pool many years ago and it was like driving a goldfish bowl.

Posted by: four seasons at May 01, 2025 10:00 PM (3ek7K)

290 I want a Monte Carlo on this.

Posted by: Its Go Time Donald at May 01, 2025 10:00 PM (NWr1F)

291 The deceptive bit is that Monty can always show a goat. He does NOT show a random choice of his two prizes. Monty will ALWAYS HAVE AT LEAST ONE GOAT to show you. Monty can see two prizes. One of them is a goat.

The choice you have is your one-third chance or Monty's two-thirds.

Posted by: irright at May 01, 2025 10:01 PM (292UM)

292 The mistake people make is not just a "feeling" about "their door", it's ignoring the fact that Monty will never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever reveal the correct door. So he's always eliminating information for you and changing the game in your favor. But yeah the "feel" does get in the way too. I "feel" like I want my door because it was always 1 in 3. But the Hand of God came in and delivers you the answer (or at least a significant part of the answer) in the form of a wrong door.

It just feels worse to switch and lose when you know you had the right door. No sane person wants to go against their "gut" and be wrong. Yes it will hurt worse than sticking with a wrong answer. But that's not the nature of the question.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 10:02 PM (E0p3T)

293 >>>This is a logic problem that seems to have an illogical answer

Nope. Monty throws out one of the bad choices, improving your odds to 50/50. Two doors left; one good, one bad. Everything that preceded is irrelevant. You do not get better than 50/50 by switching or by standing pat. 50/50 is what it is.

Posted by: Anon Y. Mous at May 01, 2025 10:03 PM (klJTj)

294 Ok, here's one I had on a recent trip to Thailand. My buddy got us a couple of girls. He told me I could pick either one...but one didn't have a bonus hole IYKWIMAITYD.

So...which did I pick?

Well, both! I mean, you have to make sure you get the right one you know?

Posted by: David French at May 01, 2025 10:03 PM (t0Rmr)

295 >>That's every possibility in a nutshell. 2 out of 3 times you win by switching. There are no other possibilities unless you want to play with what door it is behind which doesn't change anything but the labels.

And of course the odds change from the start of the game.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 10:03 PM (viF8m)

296 And here's another related resource, "Disappointment with God" a book by Philip Yancey, although the person probably doesn't need to order a book but needs someone to listen to them now. There used to be Christian help lines where people would call in with questions and concerns . I don't know if they still exist . I thought the Bill Graham Crusade used to have one, but I think there's info on the net.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at May 01, 2025 10:04 PM (YqHdp)

297 Nope. Monty throws out one of the bad choices, improving your odds to 50/50. Two doors left; one good, one bad. Everything that preceded is irrelevant. You do not get better than 50/50 by switching or by standing pat. 50/50 is what it is.

Posted by: Anon Y. Mous at May 01, 2025 10:03 PM (klJTj)

NO!! It's not 50/50. If it was 50/50 then most people would just want to stick. It's 67% in your favor if you switch. 33% if you don't.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 10:05 PM (E0p3T)

298 I apologize folks, if I derailed the thread. People are so important Back to your regular programming, and I need to go to bed.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at May 01, 2025 10:05 PM (YqHdp)

299 I apologize folks, if I derailed the thread. People are so important Back to your regular programming, and I need to go to bed.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at May 01, 2025 10:05 PM (YqHdp)

This is AoS. Every thread is derailed before it starts. Usually to boobs.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 10:06 PM (E0p3T)

300 >>Nope. Monty throws out one of the bad choices, improving your odds to 50/50. Two doors left; one good, one bad. Everything that preceded is irrelevant. You do not get better than 50/50 by switching or by standing pat. 50/50 is what it is.

Correct. The issue isn't with the odds changing, it's with the assumption of the game changing.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 10:07 PM (viF8m)

301 298
You needn't worry. I see no rails here, and you're right. People matter.

Posted by: Don in SoCo at May 01, 2025 10:07 PM (vd6bO)

302 Ask yourself if Monty has ever revealed the winning prize being behind one of his two doors and asked if the contestant wanted to trade his obvious losing prize for it?

Posted by: irright at May 01, 2025 10:07 PM (292UM)

303 I apologize folks, if I derailed the thread. People are so important Back to your regular programming, and I need to go to bed.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at May 01, 2025 10:05 PM (YqHdp)

I appreciate your posts, Fen. And I like Philip Yancey. I will look up your recommendation. Thank You.

Posted by: ScaryMary at May 01, 2025 10:08 PM (uksS7)

304 The Monty Hall Problem - Explained

YouTube (AsapSCIENCE): https://bit.ly/44euqq6

Posted by: Clyde Shelton at May 01, 2025 10:09 PM (P5BPp)

305 >>NO!! It's not 50/50. If it was 50/50 then most people would just want to stick. It's 67% in your favor if you switch. 33% if you don't.

How do you know you wouldn't have won with your first bet if you hadn't chicken shitted out and changed because Monty made you nervous?

As I said, don't ever play 3 Card Monty if you fall for this fallacy.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 10:09 PM (viF8m)

306 NO!! It's not 50/50. If it was 50/50 then most people would just want to stick. It's 67% in your favor if you switch. 33% if you don't.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 10:05 PM (E0p3T)

Let me guess... You think that if you flip a coin 9 times in a row and get heads every time, that if you flip the coin one more time, it will most likely come up tails.

Posted by: Anon Y. Mous at May 01, 2025 10:09 PM (klJTj)

307 There is a NOOD upstairs.

Posted by: ScaryMary at May 01, 2025 10:10 PM (uksS7)

308 The easiest way to understand why switching your choice is a good idea is that when you switch, you're really getting TWO doors. They show you there's a goat behind one of them, which you already knew.

The reason they show you the goat is to hide the fact that your odds are 67% if you switch. They make you think your odds are 50%.

Posted by: Editor at May 01, 2025 10:10 PM (bbqkM)

309 Let me guess... You think that if you flip a coin 9 times in a row and get heads every time, that if you flip the coin one more time, it will most likely come up tails.

Posted by: Anon Y. Mous at May 01, 2025 10:09 PM (klJTj)

Are you making fun of *me* for not understanding probability here? See 278 and then flash your sky high IQ again.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 10:12 PM (E0p3T)

310 NO!! It's not 50/50. If it was 50/50 then most people would just want to stick. It's 67% in your favor if you switch. 33% if you don't.
Posted by: ...

Good table. Now expand to four doors originally and whittle down to the last two. 75% to win by switching?

Five doors, whittle down to two. 80% to by switching?
So on and so forth.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 10:13 PM (/lPRQ)

311 If you didn't catch Jesse Watters show tonight, it'd be worth your while to find it online. He sat in on a DOGE meeting with Elon. Fascinating. And Big Balls was there! One kid actually left Harvard for DOGE because he wanted to serve his country. These are phenomenal people.

They meet weekly on Wednesdays at 10pm. It was 11pm when they were filming, and they were all going back to work afterwards.

Meanwhile, it's not even 10:30 and I'm on my way to bed, exhausted. Ha!

Posted by: IrishEi at May 01, 2025 10:14 PM (3ImbR)

312 >>The reason they show you the goat is to hide the fact that your odds are 67% if you switch. They make you think your odds are 50%.

That's the entire point. Once he shows the door the game and odds have changed. It becomes a 50/50 bet. The odds didn't change, the game did.

Judging the results of a changed game without changing the odds is meaningless.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 10:14 PM (viF8m)

313 Marilyn Vos Savant with a 200 IQ famously had all kind of (no doubt liberal faggot) professors making fun of her for getting this problem wrong and belonging in the kitchen, when all along she was right. Something about it that really brings out the brainiacs.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 10:14 PM (E0p3T)

314 That's the entire point. Once he shows the door the game and odds have changed. It becomes a 50/50 bet. The odds didn't change, the game did.

Judging the results of a changed game without changing the odds is meaningless.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 10:14 PM (viF8m)

If it became a 50/50 game at that point then everyone would just want to stay and there would be no correct answer to the problem. But there is a correct answer which means it's not 50/50.

There is no better answer to a true coin flip. But there IS a better answer here because the contestant has been given an advantage by the host. It's not 50/50. It's not just a choice between 2 doors. It's 33/67.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 10:17 PM (E0p3T)

315 Has the first door Monty reveals EVER been the real prize? I am not familiar enough to know. If not, that by itself should explain it.

Posted by: irright at May 01, 2025 10:18 PM (292UM)

316 Whether I get struck by lightning or not is not 50/50 just because it's two choices. Same principle here. It's two choices but it's absolutely positively not 50/50 once Monty has spoken.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 10:19 PM (E0p3T)

317 >>If it became a 50/50 game at that point then everyone would just want to stay and there would be no correct answer to the problem. But there is a correct answer which means it's not 50/50.

You are once again missing the point. Once Monty opened door of a wrong answer the odds changed. So did the odds of winning.

Marylin's gigantic brain didn't seem to understand this but bettors do.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 10:22 PM (viF8m)

318 -
315 Has the first door Monty reveals EVER been the real prize? I am not familiar enough to know. If not, that by itself should explain it.
Posted by: irright at May 01, 2025 10:18 PM-
-

And at what percentage? Less than about 1/3 will demonstrate deception.

Posted by: irright at May 01, 2025 10:23 PM (292UM)

319 Has the first door Monty reveals EVER been the real prize? I am not familiar enough to know. If not, that by itself should explain it.
Posted by: irright

Monty only reveals non-events.
He never opened a random door and exposed the guest's guess or the automobile if it's behind one of the other doors.

Changing your guess is no different than not guessing until you are down to two doors.

Posted by: Itinerant Alley Butcher at May 01, 2025 10:23 PM (/lPRQ)

320 You are once again missing the point. Once Monty opened door of a wrong answer the odds changed. So did the odds of winning.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 10:22 PM (viF8m)

If it's 50/50 why wouldn't it be equally good at that point to stick or to change? Is that what you are saying? That they become two equivalent choices? If they are, the problem has no correct answer and any normal human would want to "stick with their gut", and all those lecturing liberal professors were right.

And btw bettors by and large don't understand jack shit. That's why the casinos are so big.

Posted by: ... at May 01, 2025 10:27 PM (E0p3T)

321 I guess the part of this problem that throws everyone for a loop is the fact you have to switch. Take that part out and it gets obvious - would you rather pick one prize out of three doors or one prize out of two doors?

Posted by: 18-1 at May 01, 2025 10:34 PM (t0Rmr)

322 Doncha miss the product prices from Let’s Make A Deal back in the day?

Posted by: BJM92649 at May 01, 2025 10:47 PM (xGob5)

323 -
320 You are once again missing the point. Once Monty opened door of a wrong answer the odds changed. So did the odds of winning.

Posted by: JackStraw at May 01, 2025 10:22 PM (viF8m) -
-
I have to disagree. If he opened the door to a RANDOM answer you would be right. Instead, what he did was choose the door of a goat, which he always has. (1 or 2 every time) Intentionally showing you the one goat he will always have, does not change his 2/3 advantage. Showing you the one, or one of two goats, he will always have, changes no odds from initial odds. If the game were "straight" approx 1/3 of the time the first revealed door would be the actual prize and Monty would ask you to trade your (obvious) goat for another "obvious" goat.

I've been wrong A LOT. So instruction is welcome.

Posted by: irright at May 01, 2025 10:50 PM (292UM)

324 "The second choice is separate from the first, a choice between two doors, making it a 50/50 chance of success."

Not so. When you pick your box, there's a 1/3 chance that the money is there, but there's a 2/3 chance that the money is not in your box. Once Monty opens a box and shows that it's empty, the odds remain the same: 1/3 that the money is in your box, 2/3 that it's not. Although one of the other two boxes has been opened, *that does not change the odds!* It's still 2/3 that the money not in your box.

Part of me couldn't accept this, so I wrote a computer simulation of the game, and ran it through a million simulations of each of the three possible scenarios: always stand pat; always switch; or switch or stand pat randomly. The results: If I stand pat, I win about 1/3 times, if I always switch, I win about 2/3 times, and if I switch randomly, I win about half the time.

Posted by: Nemo at May 01, 2025 10:52 PM (4RPgu)

325 "You are once again missing the point. Once Monty opened door of a wrong answer the odds changed. So did the odds of winning. Marylin's gigantic brain didn't seem to understand this but bettors do."

I'd like to meet those bettors. Because they're wrong: the odds *don't* change. Monty's opening the empty box does not change the situation. That's what's so hard for us to grasp - and I think that's because it's so counter-intuitive. In the real world, gaining knowledge about a situation changes it. Everything we know, from Heisenberg's uncertainty principle to the Hawthorne effect, demonstrates that truth. Yet in the game, we gain knowledge, but the system *doesn't* change. We believe, based on our experience of how the world works, that learning which box is empty changes how the system: but it doesn't. That's why the puzzle is so damn hard for us to grasp. I understand why one should always switch, and the computer simulation I wrote proves that that is the right strategy; yet still, it bothers me that that is so, because that's not how the world works.

Posted by: Nemo at May 01, 2025 11:07 PM (4RPgu)

326 -
I understand why one should always switch, and the computer simulation I wrote proves that that is the right strategy; yet still, it bothers me that that is so, because that's not how the world works.
Posted by: Nemo at May 01, 2025 11:07 PM (4RPgu) -
-

Legit question: Does the actual Monty Hall show of history (and video) have a pattern? Is the winning door (the actual prize) ever the first door revealed? If so, in what percentage? If not, have a think about it.

Posted by: irright at May 01, 2025 11:47 PM (292UM)

327 The Monty Hall Problem

The corresponding episode of Mythbusters where they tested this theory was literally JUST rerun on Roku's Mythbusters Channel this very evening, and my wife and I were just watching it!

They concluded that...

1: Almost everyone seems to be inclined to stick with their original choice and opt NOT to switch the doors when offered the chance.

2: When put to the test, the switch door option wins FAR more often than the stick option!!! And yes, the sample showed the math of 2/3 to be pretty close to correct!

If you get the chance, watch the episode, they are available on demand on the Roku Channel App as well as the random reruns on the "Live" TV channel.

If you've never watched Mythbusters, you have missed out on one of the best TV shows ever, btw! Highly recommended.

Posted by: Mr. Right at May 01, 2025 11:50 PM (qbYk4)

328 Monty knows...so you always switch. it is a difficult one to wrap your head around

Posted by: Jeff Carter (@pointsnfigures1) at May 02, 2025 12:20 AM (ZiwLX)

329 This is the same math that tells me that climate change models are real but the modeling software can't give me the next six winning numbers on the lottery. Ever.

Six numbers.

Posted by: Rev Wishbone at May 02, 2025 01:07 AM (fY84s)

330 Got here too late, unfortunately, but I'll toss another example into the void.

Imagine you're playing against Monty directly. 1 winning prize and 2 losing prizes out of 3 choices.

You get the first choice so you have 1/3 chance to win.

Monty gets the other two that remain so he has a 2/3 chance to win.

Monty always has at least one losing prize among the 2 he has. Monty looks at both of his and then specifically chooses one of the losing prizes he is guaranteed to have and reveals it to you.

He revealed information that you knew all along: that at least one of his 2 prizes was not a winner. Him discarding that losing prize did not change the initial odds of the outcome.

Therefore his one remaining prize he did not reveal to you still has a 2/3 chance of being the winner and your initial pick still only has a 1/3 chance.

Him not revealing randomly is critical and what confuses people. If Monty randomly revealed one of his prizes, 1/3 of the time he would reveal a winner and the other 2/3 of the time you and Monty would then be left with equal odds of winning. This is what makes people incorrectly assume the odds are an even 50-50.

Posted by: Sjg at May 02, 2025 02:33 AM (aqZN1)

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