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aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com CBD: cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com Buck: buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com joe mannix: mannix2024 at proton.me MisHum: petmorons at gee mail.com J.J. Sefton: sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com | Post-Shooting Poll: Biden Loses Two Points Nationally, Trump Gets a Bump in the Battleground StatesGray Agenda on. I expected Trump to get no more than a 1-2 point bump after the assassination attempt. The reasons: 1, Trump is deeply divisive, and most of those who have decided against him are not wishy-washy on the issue, they're hard no's. They hate him. Their entire identity consists of hating him and/or writing turgid blog posts for National Review. 2, Trump has already improved his standing with the public. He limped through his presidency with a 43% approval rating, on average, but he's up to a 46% approval now. Trump has attracted some of the persuadables already. How many are left? Not many. 3, the assassination attempt will be thought of as Divine Providence by those who already support Trump. For the haters, of course, it just confirms their hatred for the God they say doesn't exist. For undecided people, it's just luck. In other words, Trump's survival will mostly be taken as a positive sign by people already supporting Trump, thus having a small effect, if any. I never really thought it would have the galvanizing effect that others were imagining. Update: What the failed assassination may do is increase Republican intensity/enthusiasm. And we'll need that, as a lot of Trump voters -- not Republican voters, but specifically Trump voters -- are low-propensity voters. The leftwing pollster Morning Consult -- actually, it's not even a poll; I believe it's a tracking survey, where the same group of people are "polled" over and over in exchange for small payments -- finds Trump gaining two points.I saw another poll -- can't find it now -- that showed Trump gaining nothing at all, but Biden losing two points of support. Something like 46%-44% in Trump's favor turning into 46-42. I don't see how the failed assassination attempt would not help Trump but rather hurt Biden, but of course there's a lot of meaningless variation between polls. An poll of just voters in Georgia and blue Virginia has worse news for Biden. |
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