Calling It: Obama Wins N.C.
I just got off the phone with Mike Ash, Director of the Durham County Board of Elections in Durham, NC. He doesn't have any numbers as far as percentages of eligible voters making it to the polls at this point, but said several polling locations have already hit record numbers. That is as of 11:30 AM. It appears that the record turnout in early voting on Sunday is expected to continue through today.
This matters because Durham is something of a bellwether of African-American voter turn-out in North Carolina. A high African-American turnout—and it appears that is indeed occurring—makes a Clinton win impossible. At this point, the only thing worth discussing is Obama's margin of victory here in the Tarheel State. If he wins by double-digits, he can claim to have staunched the bleeding over Crackerquiddick and the damage done to him by his pastor of 20 years, Reverend Jeremiah Wright. If Obama only wins by 5-8 points however, it will be viewed as the sign of a faltering, damaged campaign. Update: Turnout in Wake County has been varied, according to Wake County Board of Elections Director Cherie Poucher. There were significant lines at some precincts as polls opened this morning, while at other polling places, traffic has merely been steady. Turnout is higher than it would be for a normal primary, but it is too early to know if we're looking at record numbers. We should know more by approximately 3:00 PM. If hinted-at trends continue, Barack Obama's victory here in North Carolina could be significant.
Posted by: Confederate Yankee at 10:42 AM
Comments
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 11:03 AM (kNqJV)
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 11:07 AM (kNqJV)
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 11:22 AM (kNqJV)
Posted by: megapotamus at May 06, 2008 11:22 AM (LF+qW)
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 11:27 AM (kNqJV)
Frankly, I hope Obama wins the Democrat nomination for president. I don't want either of them as president (especially with their current "Be Blue-Collar" plan, a glaringly obvious charade), I've got to admit that Obama's inept bowling & somewhat-better basketball are MUCH more in-touch than Hillary's Crown Royal whiskey & babbling about guns & back-woods cabins. I saw that speech, & I swear she couldn't have been more incoherent if she'd taken PCP a few minutes earlier. I won't even go into her other issues (Obama definitely has his share, but Hillary's screwed up non-stop since Mr. Clinton became president).
Posted by: Thomas at May 06, 2008 11:36 AM (gU348)
Posted by: M. Simon at May 06, 2008 11:37 AM (OANt1)
What's weird is that I grew up in Illinois and moved to North Carolina a couple years ago. I don't ever remember an actual political ad on tv. Illinois is deep blue and North Carolina is deep red so I've always been blessed not to see all the crap......until now. I'm inundated with Obama ads.
I was watching a tv show called "Bones" on hulu.com. It's a site that shows lots of old (and some current) tv programs. There are about 6 ads (all the same) through an hour episode and they only last about 15 seconds. Until yesterday they were always Intel or Chevy. Last night they were ALL OBAMA ads.
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 11:45 AM (kNqJV)
That was called disenfranchisement in Ohio during the 2004 elections. I wonder what it's called now.
Posted by: Hogarth at May 06, 2008 11:56 AM (0tHG6)
Capitalist Infidel--you think NC is deep red? I guess in someways, and in some places it is, but on the other hand the state that has only had 2 republican governors since reconstruction. Yeah, NC may tend red on a national level, but local/state is a totally different picture. And if you live in a place like Durham, even more so. I did a voter registration check on my street. 70% democrat, 15% republican, 15% unaffiliated. Not exactly solid red! Incidentally, I grew up in Durham, lived in Chicago for a few years, and moved back to Durham, so my experiences kind of mirror your own!
Posted by: Khaos at May 06, 2008 12:11 PM (srqUA)
2006 - 12%
2004 - 16%
2002 - 21%
2000 - 18%
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?ID=70
Posted by: BooneWeb Blogger at May 06, 2008 12:12 PM (tj3i1)
Posted by: Marie at May 06, 2008 12:53 PM (VjdKZ)
Posted by: ACLU at May 06, 2008 01:02 PM (olMkv)
Posted by: boris719 at May 06, 2008 01:19 PM (RnF5u)
Posted by: Vinny B. at May 06, 2008 01:29 PM (S7gDM)
p.s. I'm assuming you didn't mean McCain as the "smart person run the White House"
Posted by: Gus Bailey at May 06, 2008 01:31 PM (LZarw)
Posted by: Gus Bailey at May 06, 2008 01:33 PM (LZarw)
Posted by: dhani at May 06, 2008 01:38 PM (+23II)
By the way, I bet Marie didn't mind Kos trying to do the exact same thing in New Hampshire and Michigan. The intellectual dishonesty on the left is stunning!
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 01:39 PM (kNqJV)
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 01:42 PM (kNqJV)
I mean even if the Dem's bring out the illegals, and the dead to vote, the Rep's still control the machines - right?
Somebody help me out here.....
Posted by: Lokki at May 06, 2008 01:54 PM (wSBsc)
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 02:05 PM (kNqJV)
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 02:07 PM (kNqJV)
Posted by: ddh at May 06, 2008 02:08 PM (mAI++)
not so fast there. as you note, if obama does indeed do well its because there's massive black turnout for him and that turnout is breaking 95/5 for obama over clinton. that result augurs precisely nothing with regards to the general electorate since blacks are also going to vote 95/5 for whoever the Dem is in the general election. the stickiness of obama's scandals (in the general election) can only be estimated by how the vote white breaks in the Dem primaries, since its only the white vote that can be influenced one way or another.
please remember blacks in durham also voted 95/5 to elect mike nifong even after it was clear he was framing the players.
Posted by: neil at May 06, 2008 02:28 PM (XNZ7F)
The media is what first got me remotely interested in it last year when they made a god out of Obama. I wasn't alive to see what they did with JFK, but that was the only thing I could connect it to. I'm only 37, but it was the most stunning display of press backing I've seen ---- considering what the man had done thus far in his career and what they could tell me about his tangibles. I didn't hold that against Obama, because they weren't telling enough about him to tell, but it said a lot about the media.
Now, with the defense they are doing for Obama and some they have done for Wright, I'm beyond disgusted with the whole lot.
I promise I'll never spend another cent for an American news product.
The thought of my paying even the tiniest part of their salary is abhorrent to me now and will stay that way.
Posted by: usinkorea at May 06, 2008 02:29 PM (mIoFG)
But it was perfectly fine when the MSM influenced the Republican primary right Marie?
Once again, the hypocrisy of the left shows itself.
Posted by: Conservative CBU at May 06, 2008 02:47 PM (M+Vfm)
Posted by: Lakisha Jackson at May 06, 2008 02:53 PM (QNkZ+)
Posted by: Anon at May 06, 2008 03:07 PM (MdKJj)
Posted by: Grey Fox at May 06, 2008 03:18 PM (ogM0d)
Write in Dr. Ron Paul and save this great nation.
Posted by: Mike Trenton II at May 06, 2008 03:20 PM (uFLGl)
Posted by: robertsgt40 at May 06, 2008 03:21 PM (ehvNW)
Posted by: Kate at May 06, 2008 03:24 PM (x7pFy)
?? What would everyone be shouting if there was a "record turnout" of white people voting for a white person, because he was the white candidate? Isn't anyone bothered by this thing besides me? Are you all afraid of being called a racist for acknowledging the elephant in the room? You have my permission to speak freely and call the beast by it's given name.
Posted by: mike reed at May 06, 2008 03:42 PM (Bmk7w)
It will be interesting to see the percentage that Barry Hussein wins by - I hope it is in single digits. Marxist crypto-muslims really need to be president of some country other than ours.
Posted by: hoodie in teh south at May 06, 2008 03:57 PM (X1eRt)
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 06, 2008 04:01 PM (kNqJV)
Posted by: stike at May 06, 2008 05:21 PM (RLfUs)
Posted by: Will T. Power at May 06, 2008 06:33 PM (ViOls)
The same people carping about this are most likeley near literally at half the IQ that GW possesses, not that it matters being simple logic trumps all...But "smart Obama" types lack both.
For the record.
Most Americans "as you will see in the general" dont want a whimpy marxist running the WH, dont want an obvious empty suit with zero backbone to represent them in facing down tyrants around the globe...who by the way are ALL pretty much unanimous in wanting the Big O to win the big dance the same as the smart folks, only the tyrants are just licking their chops and masturbating with glee at what a boon it would be for them, similar to boon in store for the mob and teamsters exept they tyrants run countries dead set on bringing the good ole USA down.
We dont want a president that will pull our troops out of the war just so he and his followers can sleep good at night wile at the same time 100,000's of people become slaughtered before we finish what we went there to do(yes I realize smart O folks realize we can never win a war and war never solves anything...the same smart folks said the exact same things in past wars that were won and changed the course of history)....but who cares what you think Nancy, go back to spitting on soldoers to show your version of patriotism or whatever you do to amuse yourselves but stay out of the way of the common folks who are doing what needs to be done.
Ya know, come to think about it, some smart people arent smart at all.
Didnt some real super smart people, in a European country just pass actual "rights" for foilage....ummm....yeah....Us common folk can follow "smart" stuff like that....Very typical of smart Obama types and those that follow him.
If smart is what you so dearly want in the WH, then vote for that little Iranian leader arma-whatever, I hear he is a real super smart fella.
Oh wait, your an Obama follower...thats pretty much the same deal in the end.
Posted by: Drider at May 06, 2008 07:04 PM (IQAbf)
Q1) How many Presidents have had an MBA from Harvard?
A1) One.
Q2) Which President?
A2) The one currently residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Thus endeth the lesson.
Posted by: C-C-G at May 06, 2008 08:28 PM (cwBZ+)
I lived in Kenilworth for 12 years, moved away about 8 years ago to the Fairview area. Very cool.
Posted by: Grey Fox at May 06, 2008 09:02 PM (ogM0d)
As for Hogarth, it's an idiot. It obviously doesn't understand the difference between bad planning and deliberate obstruction, especially since the long lines in Ohio generally cropped up in Democratic Party-controlled voting districts.
Finally: alas, Grey Fox "impact" has also become a noun through common usage. I'm not sayin' I like it, I'm just sayin'...
Posted by: Casey Tompkins at May 06, 2008 09:06 PM (RJSy/)
Posted by: C-C-G at May 06, 2008 09:40 PM (cwBZ+)
Which is, of course, exactly where one could routinely expect to find bad planning.
Posted by: Hogarth at May 07, 2008 06:19 AM (0tHG6)
>
> When the Rev. William Procanick put his hand on the Bible during his
> sex-abuse trial in Oneida County Court earlier this year, he swore to
tell
> the whole truth and nothing but the truth. But as the former Clinton
> Pastor was sentenced Friday, January 22, 2008 for three years in
prison
> for first-degree sexual abuse and endangering the welfare of a child
> [inappropriately touching a 7-year-old girl at his home March of
2007],
> Judge Michael L. Dwyer said Procanick sacrificed his honesty the day
he
> testified.
>
> Okay, so now that Bill and Hillary Clinton's pastor has been convicted
of
> child molestation, will we see the same furor directed a t Hillary
that
> O bama has had to endure these last few weeks? I don't think so!!!!
>
> IF A CANDIDATE IS KNOWN BY THE PASTOR THEY KEEP......
>
> Then you need to email this article to everyone you know. Here the
> CLINTON'S former Pastor is convicted of unspeakable Child Molestation.
So,
> if Obama bears the guilt for his former pastor's comments, then
Hillary
> h as to be equally tainted by this guy's crimes.
>
> For proof, please see: http://www.uticaod.com/homepage/x1637676857
Posted by: THE at May 07, 2008 08:48 AM (Y2x7I)
>
> When the Rev. William Procanick put his hand on the Bible during his
> sex-abuse trial in Oneida County Court earlier this year, he swore to
tell
> the whole truth and nothing but the truth. But as the former Clinton
> Pastor was sentenced Friday, January 22, 2008 for three years in
prison
> for first-degree sexual abuse and endangering the welfare of a child
> [inappropriately touching a 7-year-old girl at his home March of
2007],
> Judge Michael L. Dwyer said Procanick sacrificed his honesty the day
he
> testified.
>
> Okay, so now that Bill and Hillary Clinton's pastor has been convicted
of
> child molestation, will we see the same furor directed a t Hillary
that
> O bama has had to endure these last few weeks? I don't think so!!!!
>
> IF A CANDIDATE IS KNOWN BY THE PASTOR THEY KEEP......
>
> Then you need to email this article to everyone you know. Here the
> CLINTON'S former Pastor is convicted of unspeakable Child Molestation.
So,
> if Obama bears the guilt for his former pastor's comments, then
Hillary
> h as to be equally tainted by this guy's crimes.
>
> For proof, please see: http://www.uticaod.com/homepage/x1637676857
Posted by: THE at May 07, 2008 08:48 AM (Y2x7I)
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