Is the BBC Reporting the Right Press Releases?
The BCC published an article today on the Israeli use of cluster munitions during the recent war with Hezbollah in Lebanon:
No one will dispute that the aerial bombing conducted during Desert Storm was far more intense than the bombing raids conducted by Israel against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, and in Desert Storm, the U.S. Air Force dropped 10,035 CBU-87 cluster bombs on military targets. The CBU-87 a 950-pound bomb has 202 submunitions. Doing a little quick math, and we can determine that 10,035 bombs times 202 submunitions per bomb means that a total of 2,027,070 submunitions were dropped during Desert Storm. But these cluster munitions have a reported dud rate of up to 16%, meaning that in this much larger conflict, 324,332 submunitions would have failed to explode. Much larger war, many fewer duds. Do you detect an odor yet? Read on. In the recent war between Hezbollah and Israel, most of not all of the cluster munitions fired were delivered not by aircraft, but by artillery. Human Rights Watch notes that the Israelis used 155mm artillery to deliver DPICM projectiles. Each 155mm DPICM shell contains 88 submunitions. To get to a figure of the million unexploded "bomblets" claimed by the BBC, Israel would have had to have fired 7,142,858 155mm DPICM
The Israeli army is to investigate the way cluster bombs were used during the recent conflict with Hezbollah.
The chief of the defence staff has said he prohibited the wide use of the munitions during the conflict. But human rights observers in southern Lebanon say up to a million "bomblets" were left in the country after the war.
It appears that the Beeb may have botched the Mine Advisory Group press release, somehow getting it into their heads that million of rounds of unexploded munitions in Iraq (munitions dispersed over decades of fighting) translated to a million submunitions in Lebanon. Or at least that is what I hope happened, because if that isn't the case, that would suggest that the BBC published someone else's press release without checking the validity—or even the statistical possibility—of what they are reporting. And the BBC wouldn't do that... would they? Update:Via Matthew Sheffield - Heh. Update: Updated a screw-up above. A million dud submunitions would be the result of more than 7,142,858 submunitions fired, not shells. 7,142,858 submunitions is (at 88 submunitions per shell) 81,168 DPICM shells, still averaging an extraordinary rate of fire of 2,459 DPICM shells per day (33 days between 12 July and 14 Sept) on top of the more conventional ordinance fired inside the narrow swath of Lebanon that Israeli M109 155 mm SP artillery fire can reach, which is just 14.6 miles.
MAG has sent a special team from Iraq into Lebanon to help get rid of the thousands of cluster bombs and other unexploded munitions from the villages and towns in the south of the country. MAG's technical field manager, Salaam Mohammed Amin, leading the 19 highly-trained Iraqi-Kurd technicians, said: "Our staff cleared more than a million unexploded items in just one year in Iraq. It meant we helped reduce civilian victim rates after the conflict from a devastating high of around 500 per month to nearer three per month today - we hope to help the people of Lebanon in the same way."
Posted by: Confederate Yankee at 04:41 PM
Comments
1
I'm sure he's reporting the right number...but there's a catch:
They are certainly counting each and every rifle and pistol round left behind and/or scattered from the IDF air strikes hitting Hezzy ammo bunkers. And you could get those kind of numbers if you did count each and every bullet you found...which is technically an unexploded ordinance. More hype to make their mission more "flashy" (if you'll pardon the pun) and the hype makes Israel look bad.
So, were there a million UXO's out there after the IDF left? Sure, you could say that, but unfired small arms rounds aren't bombs unless you're into the whole apples and oranges comparisons (which is something the Arabs are always doing when it relates to Israel).
They are certainly counting each and every rifle and pistol round left behind and/or scattered from the IDF air strikes hitting Hezzy ammo bunkers. And you could get those kind of numbers if you did count each and every bullet you found...which is technically an unexploded ordinance. More hype to make their mission more "flashy" (if you'll pardon the pun) and the hype makes Israel look bad.
So, were there a million UXO's out there after the IDF left? Sure, you could say that, but unfired small arms rounds aren't bombs unless you're into the whole apples and oranges comparisons (which is something the Arabs are always doing when it relates to Israel).
Posted by: WB at November 22, 2006 05:55 PM (hV3oD)
2
Given your estimate of 16% dud rate of unexploded bomblets, to get 1,000,000 unexploded bomblets you would have needed a starting number of 6.25 million (1 million / 16 x 100). If each shell contains 88 bomblets, you would need a mere 71,022 shells to leave behind a million unexploded bomblets (6,225,000 / 8
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That would make the actual number of shells less than 1% of your estimate.
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That would make the actual number of shells less than 1% of your estimate.
Posted by: ff11 at November 22, 2006 10:33 PM (L5nKp)
3
Consider the source. BBC, Associated (With Terrorists) Press, CNN, the U.N., all noted for lying through their teeth.
The U.N. reported a sharp spike in violent deaths in Iraq last month. The Iraqi Health Minister said 'the U.N. is lying' the deaths were 1/4 of the U.N. count. He didn't studder, 'they are lying'. I believe the Iraqi Health Minister since an in-country blogger also says the attacks have been greatly reduced. Remember, Oct was the all out effort by the U.N./Terrorists to influence the American elections. Americans like the people of Spain fell for the propaganda hook, line and sinker. That proves that over 50% of the American voting public doesn't have the guts to protect this country or support freedon anywhere in the world.
The U.N. reported a sharp spike in violent deaths in Iraq last month. The Iraqi Health Minister said 'the U.N. is lying' the deaths were 1/4 of the U.N. count. He didn't studder, 'they are lying'. I believe the Iraqi Health Minister since an in-country blogger also says the attacks have been greatly reduced. Remember, Oct was the all out effort by the U.N./Terrorists to influence the American elections. Americans like the people of Spain fell for the propaganda hook, line and sinker. That proves that over 50% of the American voting public doesn't have the guts to protect this country or support freedon anywhere in the world.
Posted by: Scrapiron at November 22, 2006 11:42 PM (YadGF)
4
Does the fact that you have a personal bias against the UN somehow magically correct the math this article was based on? Or are you just trying to deflect attention from the issue at hand?
Posted by: ff11 at November 23, 2006 12:52 AM (L5nKp)
5
Sorry if I got overly aggressive. Your numbers for submunitions sound right. Whether that is a reasonable number or not, I don't know. I know that Hezbollah reportedly fired over 4000 missiles, so I'm not sure if 80,000 shells fired by Israel would be an unrealistic number.
Posted by: ff11 at November 23, 2006 01:22 AM (L5nKp)
6
Regarding MAG, just because that 80 member team has FOUND 100.000 bomblets to date, does not mean that they have already found the majority.
Regarding the Hezbollah rocket delivered cluster munitions, do you have a source for this claim? I seem to recall only hearing about rockets filled with bolts and screws.
Regarding the Hezbollah rocket delivered cluster munitions, do you have a source for this claim? I seem to recall only hearing about rockets filled with bolts and screws.
Posted by: ff11 at November 23, 2006 01:36 AM (L5nKp)
7
It's not a matter of how many pounds of explosives were used, but what fraction was composed of cluster bombs. We tend not to use cluster bombs in areas that would be likely to affect civilian populations, and were upset enough with Israel for using them to hold up rocket shipments during this conflict.
You seem to be shocked by the rougly 4000 bomblets used by Hezbollah, while you are totally accepting of the 4,000,000 bomblets used by Israel (both figures from the same article), and you don't see a bias in your position?
You seem to be shocked by the rougly 4000 bomblets used by Hezbollah, while you are totally accepting of the 4,000,000 bomblets used by Israel (both figures from the same article), and you don't see a bias in your position?
Posted by: ff11 at November 23, 2006 02:25 AM (L5nKp)
8
The equivalent of 102 shells an hour, 24 hours a day for 33 days, seems a bit much. And lobbing cluster-shells isn't the only purpose for firing artillery, so I'd expect there to be many more than just 80,000 to have been fired if 80,000 were fired at all. That would up the shells per day considerably.
Artillery isn't fired willy-nilly by the IDF the way Hezbollah shoots off their rockets. Targets need to be determined and, with cluster-bombs, the intended targets aren't stationary, so I'd expect that forward spotters or some other surveillance would be required both for acquiring the targets and verifying elimination.
To fire some 80,000 cluster shells seems like a lot of forward work, and rather ineffective at that considering the IDF claims they only killed some 500 Hezbollah fighters, not to mention that a lot of those fighters were killed by means other than artillery shells.
And just to note, the IDF never even hinted at the efforts of the artillery work, neither did the press report much about the devastation visited on southern Lebanon by the IDF raining some 80,000 shells upon it during those 33 days. However, the IDF did make an effort to announce there naval and aerial efforts, which was reported in the press to a considerable extent. That was summarized by the IDF here:
http://www1.idf.il/dover/site/mainpage.asp?clr=1&sl=EN&id=7&docid=56539
CY's skepticism seems fully warranted here and until the 80 member MAG team does find the majority, or even all, for that matter, the BBC ought to stick to reporting what is known, not what they want to presume. Then again, maybe CY is on to something: BBC reporters botch things rather easily.
Artillery isn't fired willy-nilly by the IDF the way Hezbollah shoots off their rockets. Targets need to be determined and, with cluster-bombs, the intended targets aren't stationary, so I'd expect that forward spotters or some other surveillance would be required both for acquiring the targets and verifying elimination.
To fire some 80,000 cluster shells seems like a lot of forward work, and rather ineffective at that considering the IDF claims they only killed some 500 Hezbollah fighters, not to mention that a lot of those fighters were killed by means other than artillery shells.
And just to note, the IDF never even hinted at the efforts of the artillery work, neither did the press report much about the devastation visited on southern Lebanon by the IDF raining some 80,000 shells upon it during those 33 days. However, the IDF did make an effort to announce there naval and aerial efforts, which was reported in the press to a considerable extent. That was summarized by the IDF here:
http://www1.idf.il/dover/site/mainpage.asp?clr=1&sl=EN&id=7&docid=56539
CY's skepticism seems fully warranted here and until the 80 member MAG team does find the majority, or even all, for that matter, the BBC ought to stick to reporting what is known, not what they want to presume. Then again, maybe CY is on to something: BBC reporters botch things rather easily.
Posted by: Dusty at November 23, 2006 02:53 AM (GJLeQ)
9
"Actually, you are more than likely wrong here, as well, on multiple levels."
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Wrong here, "as well"? Let's not forget that you were the one who was wrong. Regarding MAG, Your guess that the majority of duds have been found seems to be entirely unfounded.
First, over 100,000 bomblets have already been found.
Second, the ones that are found are likely to be in the more populated areas (cities, villages)
Third, we won't know if the supermajority have been found until and unless they stop finding any more.
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Wrong here, "as well"? Let's not forget that you were the one who was wrong. Regarding MAG, Your guess that the majority of duds have been found seems to be entirely unfounded.
First, over 100,000 bomblets have already been found.
Second, the ones that are found are likely to be in the more populated areas (cities, villages)
Third, we won't know if the supermajority have been found until and unless they stop finding any more.
Posted by: ff11 at November 23, 2006 02:55 AM (L5nKp)
10
The equivalent of 102 shells an hour, 24 hours a day for 33 days, seems a bit much.
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Assuming they were using one launcher, yes, that would be a bit much. Assuming they were using hundreds, not so much, actually it makes it seem like they were loafing much of the time.
Also note that just because Israel has used the DPICM shells to deliver cluster bombs doesn't mean that they have not used any other means:
Israel has in its arsenal cluster munitions delivered by aircraft, artillery and rockets. Israel is a major producer and exporter of cluster munitions, primarily artillery projectiles and rockets containing M85 DPICM (Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munition) submunitions. Israeli Military Industries, an Israeli government-owned weapons manufacturer, has reportedly produced more than 60 million M85 DPICM submunitions. Israel also produces at least six different types of air-dropped cluster bombs, and has imported from the United States M26 rockets for its Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.
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Assuming they were using one launcher, yes, that would be a bit much. Assuming they were using hundreds, not so much, actually it makes it seem like they were loafing much of the time.
Also note that just because Israel has used the DPICM shells to deliver cluster bombs doesn't mean that they have not used any other means:
Israel has in its arsenal cluster munitions delivered by aircraft, artillery and rockets. Israel is a major producer and exporter of cluster munitions, primarily artillery projectiles and rockets containing M85 DPICM (Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munition) submunitions. Israeli Military Industries, an Israeli government-owned weapons manufacturer, has reportedly produced more than 60 million M85 DPICM submunitions. Israel also produces at least six different types of air-dropped cluster bombs, and has imported from the United States M26 rockets for its Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.
Posted by: ff11 at November 23, 2006 03:02 AM (L5nKp)
11
BBC ?
Its like getting your facts from a comic book
BBC Mantra
"put out story before getting facts or truth "
1984
Its like getting your facts from a comic book
BBC Mantra
"put out story before getting facts or truth "
1984
Posted by: earth56 at November 23, 2006 03:39 PM (t9vOW)
12
ff11......Hezbolah did not fire "missiles" into Isreal, they fired "Rockets". Theres a huge difference between the two
and do you really think that their warheads were filled with "nuts and bolts"? How do nuts and bolts start fires? Is there any circumstance where you can see Iran shipping expensive rockets but not shipping the inexpensive explosives for the warheads?
get real
and do you really think that their warheads were filled with "nuts and bolts"? How do nuts and bolts start fires? Is there any circumstance where you can see Iran shipping expensive rockets but not shipping the inexpensive explosives for the warheads?
get real
Posted by: senorlechero at November 23, 2006 11:51 PM (HbHrK)
13
You tell me, here is the reality:
http://vitalperspective.typepad.com/vital_perspective_clarity/2006/07/human_rights_wa.html
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/7/24/154609.shtml
Do your own search for "Hezbollah rockets filled with", pick a news source you believe.
I'm not claiming that they were not deadly. It was war. But with very rare exceptions, they were NOT cluster weapons. The difference is that cluster weapons keep killing and maiming LONG after the war is over. Ball bearings do not.
http://vitalperspective.typepad.com/vital_perspective_clarity/2006/07/human_rights_wa.html
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/7/24/154609.shtml
Do your own search for "Hezbollah rockets filled with", pick a news source you believe.
I'm not claiming that they were not deadly. It was war. But with very rare exceptions, they were NOT cluster weapons. The difference is that cluster weapons keep killing and maiming LONG after the war is over. Ball bearings do not.
Posted by: ff11 at November 25, 2006 11:08 AM (L5nKp)
14
As a former Fire Support Officer with a Paladin BN let me back up Bob here that this report is a turd blossom. No freaking way. I doubt if they even have the number of shells required to leave this many duds. I doubt they even fired that many into urban areas anyway. Israel has a professional military and professional militaries have restrictive measures against firing dual purpose improved conventional munitions into built up areas. Besides the humanitarian issues, it doesn't make sense to use the relatively small blast radius and explosive power of DPICM against fixed facilities. DPICM is good for area denial like a column of armor. If you are firing into an urban area at a building, HE makes more sense. Sounds like somebody is just trying to get free advertising for their business along with the benefit of propaganda.
Posted by: ray robison at November 27, 2006 10:27 PM (4joLu)
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