The 2008 Presidential Campaign

Apologies for the delay on this post - I don't know when it will actually go up. Apparently the Sheraton Hotel is having issues with it's internet connection. People have been dispatched to fix the problem.

After this session is our only break of the day (from 5-6). Then will be the last session, dinner with Elizabth Dole. According to Teach, there's rumors of a protest outside for Senator Dole. Apparently the over/under on the turnout is a whopping five people. I've been watching the entrance all day, and I've seen no sign of any protesters. Between 5 and 6 I'll be watching for them, camera in hand. I wonder if they've called other media. Maybe, just for entertainment's sake, I should attempt to interview them...

Marc Rotterman:

Republicans lost in 2006 because we didn't stand for anything. We became the party of big government. He speaks as a conservative first, Republican second. No Child Left Behind was a loser. The prescription drug bill was not a good idea. We lost economic conservatives because the debt keeps going up and the leadership did nothing to stop it. And Republicans never fully responded to the various scandals. FEMA failed to respond. What we need in 08 is for George Bush to get a boost -- he's got to get a strong push before he goes out -- if he's down, that will not help the Republican Party.

In 2004 we should have extended the tax cuts instead of social security. This is the "show me the money" primary. Hillary and Bill are going to continue to raise a lot of money. Barack was rather unsure of himself. Marc thinks it will be either Hillary or Richardson for the Democrats.

Romney is ahead in the money and polls. Rudy is close behind and McCain is in third. The whole thing may be over my mid-Febuary next year.

Competency and Authenticity are the two key words in this race. If we're arguing about abortion and gay rights in the primary, we're going to lose the general election. This race is about national security and the American people trust Rudy on national security. McCain is second in most polls; but he is most associated with Iraq; and no one can win from Washington, DC. Because of McCain-Feingold, Marc could never support him.

Romney is ahead with money, but fourth in polls. He has a huge credibily problem with conservatives and the American people. He's not going to sell in the Bible belt. He's switched too many of his positions to be trusted.

All the others are "searching for Reagan." A lot of people would like to see Fred Thompson run. He can raise money, but he hasn't run good campaigns in the past. Newt is a possible dark horse as a replacement for Reagan.

If this race is about Iraq and Bush, we lose. Republicans have to say how they're going to win the war on terror and how they're going to keep the economy moving.

Fred Barnes:

How to win in politics by Bush: You can fool some of the people all of the time -- and he concentrated on those people. The future in politics is never a straight-line projection from the past. Events always happen to make changes. I haven't the slightest idea of who will win the Republican nomination or the presidential election.

I don't think the 2006 election was just about Iraq -- Republican are in deep trouble. I don't think Republicans have much of a chance of winning back the House or Senate. President Bush has GOT to finish strongly. If he's in the same position in 2008 as he is now, Republicans are going to lose the White House.

Whenever a Republican president finishes weakly, Democrats win the White House. Tied to this is a strong turnaround in Iraq. A turnaround is essential. When you're a party of a war that's being lost, it's not helpful.

Immigration: Republicans need to resolve the immigration issue (much applause). They need to resolve it to satisfy those who want a border that does not drive away Hispanic voters. Just building a fence may solve the immigration problem, but it does not solve the political problem associated with it. It's a horrible issue for Republicans because it divides them so angrily.

Republicans need a BIG IDEA. Republicans don't have one right now. They also need a big Democratic blunder. Democrats have a strong advantage in voter self-identification: 50% to 35%. As you can tell, I'm pessimistic.

Rufus Edisten (D):

I am a Sam Irvin Democrat who believes that the Constitution says what it says. I am a recovering politician. We need to quit hating one another because of what we believe.

There's a possibility of a number of firsts. We could have the first female president. We could have the first African-American president; the first Morman president. This thing is so mixed up right now, it's hard to make any real predictions.

This country has come to a rush for money. A handshake today doesn't mean anything. Today in the political process, it's all about money. He's been told that you cannot go anywhere as a candidate unless you're raising money. We have allowed political consultants to take over the process.

Were it not for some of Bush's problems, Republicans would have no problems winning the presidency. The American people like safety -- but there have been so many "mess-ups" that something has to change. The Bush label is a bad label. There's been a lot of hubris in this administration -- and people don't like that. There needs to be some more humility.

We're just about where the fall of the Roman Empire was when they were just buying one another off.

The Democrat debate was horrible. He'd rather watch paint dry. I believe that the two sleepers are Fred Thompson -- I worked with him for a year during Watergate. Fred Thompson has got what it takes, and he's presidential. The other side sleeper is algore. If algore were to appear months down the road that there are so many people that are confused that he would win the nomination.

Audience questions focused on campaigns and money -- people asked about media, bloggers, and how to get the press to have coverage. Today the press only asks, "Who's going to win?" instead of "Who are these people?" Television sound bytes have also gotten smaller and smaller over the years -- making it harder for candidates to get the message out.

National polls today on the presidential race are absolutely, completely meaningless and useless today. They just have no meaning, but you see them reported all the time.

Posted by: Ogre at 08:46 PM

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